Month: October 2020

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at New York Jets (0-4)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Jets have been inarguably the worst team in the league through 4 games, as they rank dead last by a wide margin in point differential (-66, next closest is -49) and first down rate differential (-11.66%, next closest is -8.84%). The way they’ve played, it’s hard to imagine them being competitive against anyone outside of the worst few teams in the league. They were 8.5-point home underdogs in this home game against the Cardinals on the early line last week, but we’re getting a smaller number now, with this line dropping down to 7, in large part due to the Cardinals losing their second straight game last week.

The Cardinals started out hot with two straight wins, but the public has soured on them as they’ve fallen down to 2-2, including upset losses to the Lions and Panthers. However, they won the first down rate battle against the Lions by 10.50%, only losing by 3 because of a -3 turnover margin, which is a very inconsistent metric week-to-week, and then against the Panthers, they were without three defensive starters, two of whom are expected to return this week, most importantly safety Budda Baker, who is one of their top defensive players. 

Even with losing the first down rate battle against the Panthers, the Cardinals still rank 9th in the NFL in first down rate differential at +2.81%. Their 14th ranked defense probably won’t be as good going forward, as they have similar personnel to last year when they finished 30th in first down rate allowed, but they should still finish better defensively than they did last year and their 10th ranked offense could easily keep this up. Their offense finished last season 18th in first down rate and now they have Kyler Murray in his second year, a full season of Kenyan Drake, and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins as a #1 wide receiver. Even if their defense falls off, this should still be a competitive mid-level team because of their offense.

On the other hand, the Jets could be a little better than they’ve been in recent weeks, for two reasons. For one, they are getting running back Le’Veon Bell back from injury, giving them arguably their best skill position player back a week after the Jets got top pass catcher Jamison Crowder back from injury. The second reason is that quarterback Sam Darnold is out with an injury for the Jets, which could prove to be a blessing in disguise, given how badly he’s been playing lately. 

That’s not to say Flacco is definitely going to be an upgrade, as Flacco hasn’t been a capable starter in a few seasons and now is in his age 35 season and coming off of a major injury, but he’s a very experienced veteran who could stabilize the position a little for a couple games. I’m still taking the Cardinals, but there are enough reasons to think the Jets will be better this week than they’ve been this season, so this is a no confidence pick. The most likely result might be a push.

Final Update: The Cardinals have a bit of a surprise absence with safety Chris Banjo being unable to return from his one week absence despite practicing throughout the work. Budda Baker’s return is a much bigger deal, but the Cardinals will still be without a pair of defensive players with Devon Kennard also out. Since I was barely on the Cardinals to begin with, I’m flipping this to the Jets, still for a no confidence pick.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Houston Texans (0-4)

The Texans are really in a mess of a situation. They gave complete control of their roster and complete control of the offense to head coach Bill O’Brien, who was essentially functioning as his own general manager and offensive coordinator, despite never proving himself as a great coach. O’Brien took this team to the post-season in 2019, but the Texans had a negative point differential at -7 and O’Brien’s roster changes this off-season undoubtedly made them worse. 

Now the Texans are off to a 0-4 start and, making matters so much worse, due to O’Brien’s failed aggressive moves to try to build this roster into a Super Bowl contender, the Texans won’t even have the luxury of having their own first or second round pick this year. This comes after having just one first round pick and just two picks in the top-50 over the past 3 drafts combined, due to other failed aggressive moves. On top of that, the Texans don’t have much long-term financial flexibility either, with a projected negative 11 million in cap space for 2021 and 11 players under contact for 2021 who are all making 9 million or more annually. Simply put, the Texans aren’t winning games and won’t be able to utilize the normal methods by which teams improve themselves and rebuild.

The Texans’ solution to this was to fire Bill O’Brien four games into the season. O’Brien certainly is to blame for the current situation, but it’s hard to see how firing him makes them better in the short-term. O’Brien isn’t a great coach, but he’ll be turning the job over to 73-year-old Romeo Crennel, who has already failed in two other head coaching stints. It’s very unlikely he’ll be able to do much more with O’Brien’s roster than O’Brien could, especially as a defensive background head coach without a proven offensive coordinator, so the Texans probably would have been better off just stripping O’Brien roster control powers rather than outright firing him and leaving a huge vacuum. 

That being said, there is one reason to like the Texans’ chances of turning things around somewhat in the short-term and that’s simply that their schedule gets a lot easier. The Texans started their season with a murderer’s row of the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers and, while the Vikings were winless coming into their week 4 matchup in Houston, the Vikings were much better than their record suggested, as they too started the season with a brutal schedule and fared much better on a per snap basis than their final scores would have suggested. 

The Texans weren’t competitive with the Chiefs and Ravens, but they played both Pittsburgh and Minnesota within one score, leading the Steelers at one point in the fourth quarter and then having a chance to at least send the game to overtime at the end of the game against the Vikings. The Texans aren’t a great team, but on paper they have enough talent that they should be a middling team, regardless of their head coaching situation, and I think that’s been obscured by how tough their early schedule has been.

This week, the Texans get arguably the easiest game of their season, at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite having one of the worst rosters in the league, the Jaguars surprisingly won week 1 against the Colts in a game that largely swung on the Jaguars winning the turnover battle by 2, something that is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. However, they’ve fallen back to reality since then, especially on defense, where they rank 30th in first down rate allowed. Their offense has kept them afloat by ranking 8th in first down rate at 42.51%, but it’s hard to imagine their offense being this good all season. If they even fall down to being an middling offense, it’s going to be tough for them to win games against anyone.

Given that, I like the Texans chances of covering this week. It may be weird to see an 0-4 team favored by 5.5 points, but typically when a winless team is favored by this many points, there’s a good reason for it. Over the past 30 years, teams that are 0-2 or worse are 33-21 ATS as favorites of 4.5 or more. That alone isn’t a reason to bet the Texans, but it’s a reason to not be scared off by the Texans’ record. 

I’m keeping this as a low confidence bet for now, but the Jaguars are already without cornerback DJ Hayden, seem likely to be without edge defender Josh Allen, who didn’t practice all week, and could possibly also be without linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback CJ Henderson, though both did get limited practices in on Friday. Depending on the inactive report for Jacksonville and where this line is Sunday morning, I may end up making a bet on Houston.

Final Update: The Texans have an unexpected absence in linebacker Benardrick McKinney, which will hurt because he is their top linebacker, but that’s nothing compared to the Jaguars, who will be without their top cornerback, linebacker, and edge rusher, with all three questionable players being unable to go. With top slot cornerback DJ Hayden ruled out earlier in the week, the Jaguars have an absolute sieve of a defense right now and, in fact, are the lowest rated defense in my roster rankings in any single week over the past 3 years. This will be a shootout, but one the Texans should win with relative ease, so I’m comfortable laying the 5.5.

Houston Texans 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 28

Pick against the spread: Houston -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-1)

Coming into the season, I expected the Colts to be one of the best teams in the league and, even with a disappointing performance week 1 in Jacksonville, the Colts still rank 3rd in the NFL in first down rate differential at +6.71%. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but none of their wins have been that closely fought, including a game last week in Chicago against the previously 3-0 Bears in which the Bears trailed 19-3 before a garbage time touchdown made the final score look closer than the game was.

Going into this week, I was expecting to be betting the Colts again, as small road favorites in Cleveland, but the Colts are starting to get hit by injuries, something that hasn’t affected them in a significant way yet this season. This week, they’ll be without left tackle Anthony Castonzo and linebacker Darius Leonard. Castonzo’s absence isn’t as big as it might seem because the Colts have a capable backup and a strong overall offensive line at the other four positions, but Leonard’s absence is huge because he’s not only one of the best linebackers in the league and arguably the best defensive player on one of the best defenses in the league, but the Colts also don’t have anyone close to filling in what he does on this defense, as their linebacker depth is very suspect. Leonard’s absence should move this line 2-3 points by itself.

This line has moved down to even from 1.5 earlier this week, but that’s a pretty insignificant shift, so we’re not getting real line value with the Colts. The Browns have a high level player missing as well in running back Nick Chubb, but the Browns have a proven feature back behind him on the depth chart in Kareem Hunt, who should be more than capable of carrying the load for a few weeks, and they have arguably the best run blocking offensive line in football. I’m still taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes, but I have no confidence in that pick.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis PK

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4)

I typically like to go against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and that is the case here, with the Panthers going from 3.5-point underdogs in this game in Atlanta on the early line last week to just 1-point underdogs now, likely as a result of their home win over the Cardinals last week. That’s a big shift, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by 1-3 points. The Cardinals were an overrated team entering that game though and they were also very banged up, missing a trio of defensive starters, so the Panthers shouldn’t get too much credit for that.

The Falcons are obviously missing a key player in Julio Jones, who looks likely to miss his 2nd game of the season with a hamstring injury after not practicing all week, but they’re actually otherwise getting a lot healthier, particularly on defense, where they will get safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, edge defender Takkarist McKinley, and cornerback AJ Terrell back this week. None of those players are great, but they provide necessary upgrades for a defense that has been one of the worst few in the league thus far this season. The Falcons should be favored at least by a field goal at home, even without normal homefield advantage, as they are the better of these two teams in their current states. This isn’t a big play, but in a game the Falcons just need to win to cover, they’re worth a bet.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Carolina Panthers 30

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -1

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3)

The Cowboys are a tough team to figure out. On one hand, they could easily be 0-4 if the Falcons had recovered an onside kick and they’ve been destroyed by injuries, with a list of long-term unavailable players that they were counting on for big contributions that includes the dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and expected top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, as well as his potential replacement Anthony Brown.

On the other hand, I liked them coming into the season because they finished last season 4th in first down rate differential and 6th in point differential and their bad record in close games was likely to even out in the long-term. This year, even though they could be 0-4, they’ve primarily been hurt by the turnover margin, which is something else that tends to even out in the long-term. The Cowboys have a league worst -7 turnover margin, in large part due to a 22.22% fumble recovery rate (1 of their own 7 fumbles recovered), but in terms of first down rate differential they actually rank 11th at +2.57%. Had they just recovered one of their first half fumbles against the Falcons, they likely wouldn’t have needed to recover an onside kick to win and their three losses were all relatively close games where the turnover margin played a big role. 

That’s a good sign for the Cowboys’ chances going forward, especially since their schedule is starting to get much easier after a tough start to the season. This home game against the Giants is probably their easiest game to date, only rivaled by their game against the Falcons in Atlanta in which the Cowboys won the first down rate battle by 10.80%. The Cowboys aren’t as talented as they were last year and the impact of their injuries can’t be understated, but they won seven games by double digits last season and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being another multi-score win against an easy opponent.

Unfortunately, we aren’t really getting line value with the Cowboys as 8.5-point home favorites. This line has moved slightly from 11.5 on the early line last week, but I don’t think it’s moved enough to compensate for Tyron Smith going down. My calculated line is Dallas -6.5, as the Cowboys won’t have a normal homefield advantage and the Giants have the kind of defense that can keep this close, especially with the Cowboys so banged up on the offensive line.

The Giants’ offense might be the worst in the league without running back Saquon Barkley and they haven’t scored a touchdown in their last two games without him, but the Cowboys have a much easier defense to move the ball against than the 49ers or Rams, so the Giants could easily keep it close or get a backdoor cover. I wouldn’t bet either side, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +8.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week and I think they’re an underrated team going forward. They were better than their 2-14 record last season, ranking 24th in first down rate differential, and I expected them to be noticeably better than that this season, with the Bengals adding quarterback Joe Burrow atop the draft and getting their left tackle Jonah Williams and top wide receiver AJ Green back from injuries than cost them all of 2019. So far, the Bengals rank 18th at -0.25%. They have just one win, but they’ve been competitive in all four games and they should be better going forward, with stud defensive tackle Geno Atkins set to make his season debut after missing 4 games due to injury.

Unfortunately, that probably won’t translate to the win column right away, as Atkins’ first game back is probably the toughest game of the Bengals’ season, in Baltimore against the Ravens. In addition to the Ravens being a really tough opponent, this is also a really tough spot for the Bengals. While the Ravens have an easy game in Philadelphia on deck, the Bengals have another tough game in Indianapolis next week. Favorites of 6+ are 124-75 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 74-107 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again.

Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 39-11 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week. Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams with another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week, which hurts the Bengals’ chances of keeping this competitive. I’m still taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes as 13-point underdogs because they typically keep their games close and my calculated line is just 8.5, so we’re getting significantly line value with the visitor, but I wouldn’t recommend putting money on this one.

Baltimore Ravens 28 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +13

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)

The Eagles got their first win of the season last week in San Francisco, but they were facing a very banged up 49ers team and got lucky that they won the turnover battle by 2 on a pair of terrible interceptions by 49ers backup quarterback Nick Mullens that swung what ended up being just a 5-point Eagles win. Turnover margins are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis anyway (the Eagles were -7 in the first 3 weeks of the season) and the Eagles lost the first down rate battle in that game by 6.10%, giving them a 29th ranked -5.19% first down rate differential on the season, despite the fact that they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule.

This game in Pittsburgh is arguably the toughest game of the Eagles’ season so far. The Steelers are 3-0 and, though they haven’t been quite as good as their record, with their wins all being close and a 15th ranked first down rate differential on the season (+0.87%), their defense has still been one of the best in the league, ranking 5th with a 34.43% first down rate allowed, while their 26th ranked offense (35.29%) should be better going forward, especially with top offensive lineman David DeCastro healthy after missing the first two games of the season. 

Despite that, the Eagles are only touchdown underdogs in this game. I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -10, as the Eagles are one of the worst teams in the league and are 8.5 points behind the Steelers in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers. The Eagles are also in a tough spot as they have an even tougher game on deck at home against the Ravens. Big upcoming home games like that tend to serve as a distraction, as teams are 37-60 ATS since 2016 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. It’s even tougher for teams when it is back-to-back tough games, as teams are 51-73 ATS since 2016 as underdogs of 6 or more before being underdogs of 6 or more again the following week. I don’t love the Steelers, but they’re worth a bet at -7 and I’d consider a larger bet at 6.5. It’s going to be tough for the Eagles to keep this one close.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

Russell Wilson has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, but he’s never started a season this well, completing 75.2% of his passes for an average of 9.38 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with 95 rushing yards in 4 games. The Seahawks overall rank 2nd in the league with a 44.80% first down rate, only behind the Green Bay Packers. This is as talented of an offensive supporting cast as Wilson has ever had, but there’s no denying how valuable Wilson has been for this team thus far. Wilson has somewhat famously never gotten an MVP vote, but it’s safe to say he’ll be in the mix this year if he continues playing this well.

The concern for the Seahawks is that, as well as Wilson is playing, they still aren’t blowing out most of their competition. They won by 13 points week 1 against the Falcons, but the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and their other three wins have come by one score, including games against the Cowboys and Dolphins. This isn’t anything new, as the Seahawks won 10 of their 11 wins by one score last season.

The Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 19th in first down rate allowed at 40.68%, is a definite concern, as the Seahawks could see some of their close wins turn to losses if Wilson falls back to earth the rest of the way. Those defensive concerns are even bigger this week with the Seahawks missing safety Jamal Adams due to injury, as Adams is arguably their best defensive player and the top safety in the league.

The Seahawks face a 1-3 Vikings team at home in Seattle this week, but they won’t have their normal homefield advantage and the Vikings are better than their record suggests, as they’ve had some things go against them that are very inconsistent week-to-week, like their -4 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), their 22.22% fumble recovery rate (2 of 9, including 1 for 7 on fumbles forced), and the 15 of 15 field goals that opponents have hit against them.

In fact, the Vikings actually rank just slightly behind the Seahawks in first down rate differential (+4.12% vs. +3.84%), despite the fact that they’ve faced a much tougher schedule. DVOA doesn’t have them quite as close, but the Vikings rank 13th, 7 spots behind the Seahawks, which still suggests we’re getting significant line value with the visitor. They should be able to keep this game close like most teams do with the Seahawks and they should also have a better chance to come in and get the straight up win than most expect, especially if Wilson has an off game.

My only concern with this game is the Seahawks are going into their bye, which is usually a good spot for a big home favorite. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. However, the Seahawks are barely 7-point favorites and these two teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests, so I’m not sure this trend applies. My calculated line is just Seattle -4.5, giving the Seahawks 1.5 points for homefield advantage. I don’t like the Vikings as much as my typical Pick of the Weeks, but I don’t see a better option this week. I would be surprised if Seattle was able to win this game by multiple scores, barring some fluky outlier plays.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

I’ve been on the Buccaneers in a big way for the past three weeks, because I’ve felt their defense was being very underrated, and they’ve covered in all three instances, but unfortunately it seems the line has caught up, as the Buccaneers have gone from being 3-point favorites in this game in Chicago on the early line last week to 5.5-point favorites this week. That takes away all line value, as that is my exact calculated line. I’m still taking the Buccaneers, but it’s purely because it’s a short week and the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage on a short week. 

Non-divisional favorites of a field goal or more typically cover at about a 61.6% rate on Thursday nights, and, though that drops to 55.6% for road favorites, I wonder how much that will matter without normal crowds. We haven’t seen a big road favorite on Thursday yet, so there are no data points to look at, but it makes sense that the Buccaneers would have a better chance than the typical Thursday road favorites of covering. That’s not enough to bet on the Buccaneers and this would likely be a no confidence pick if this was a normal week, but on a short week, I think it’s more likely we get a strong performance from the Buccaneers than the Bears, so I’d recommend them for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has surprisingly dropped to 3.5 in most places, due to heavy sharp action. I don’t know why the sharps are on the Bears and 4 and 5 aren’t key numbers, but I may consider betting Tampa Bay, especially if this line goes all the way down to 3. Stay tuned.

Update #2: While we’re waiting for this line to hopefully drop to 3, I want to lock in Minnesota +7 for this weekend. I’ll still have a full writeup this weekend as normal, but I was planning on being on the Vikings heavily if Jamal Adams doesn’t play for the Seahawks and he was ruled out early. I don’t want to risk that line dropping from a touchdown, so I’m locking it in now.

Final Update: I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but I think a bet is justified. With the Buccaneers having Leonard Fournette surprisingly active and Mike Evans confirmed active despite missing practice all week on a short week, I have this line calculated at Tampa Bay -6 and they are in a good spot as well. As much as I’d much rather this line be 3, the Buccaneers should win by at least 6-7 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3.5

Confidence: Medium

2020 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 4

Total Against the Spread: 9-5-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 5-1-1

Low Confidence Picks: 3-3

No Confidence Picks: 1-1

Upset Picks: 0-0

2020

Total Against the Spread: 32-29-2

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence Picks: 4-2

Medium Confidence Picks: 8-8-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 14-12-1

Low Confidence Picks: 15-9

No Confidence Picks: 3-8-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1011-864-57 (53.80%)

Pick of the Week: 75-45-5 (62.00%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 483-354-24 (57.49%)

Upset Picks: 156-176-1 (47.00%)