Month: May 2021

Minnesota Vikings 2021 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings finished the 2020 season just 7-9, their worst record since 2014, but there are reasons to be optimistic about this team. For one, their major problem last season was special teams, which tends to have a very high variance on a year-to-year basis. The Vikings ranked 8th in offensive DVOA and 18th in defensive DVOA, but ranked only ahead of the Chargers in special teams DVOA, so if they can have even average special teams play in 2021, that alone could lead to a couple more wins for a team who lost a trio of games by 3 points or fewer in 2020.

First down rate differential shows this as well, as the Vikings finished the season 8th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.69%, ranking 3rd in first down rate over expected at +3.01% and 26th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.33%. Obviously that defensive performance is concerning, but defensive performance tends to be much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance and the Vikings are set to get some key defensive players back from injury, which could allow them to much more closely resemble the defense that ranked 13th in first down rate allowed in 2019. 

The Vikings’ defense was actually a middling unit for most of the season until bottoming out due to so many key injury absences down the stretch. They will probably have more injuries on offense this season, after finishing with the 5th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on offense in 2020 (as opposed to the 3rd most on defense), but their offense was actually the best in football on early downs last season, which tends to be the most predictive down. 

The Vikings ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate on 1st and 2nd down at 34.78% (the Bills ranked 2nd at 33.83% and the league average was 30.01%) and somewhat ridiculously they converted first downs at a higher rate on 1st and 2nd down than all but four teams did when you include all downs (league average 32.72%). If the Vikings had converted 3rd and 4th downs at a higher than average rate last season (16th at 42.65%), they could have been the best offense in the league. 

The Vikings didn’t have much financial flexibility in free agency this off-season and lost some key players as a result, but they did do a good job with the limited financial flexibility they had and they arguably had one of the best drafts in the league. I’ll get into all of that later, but one obvious reason for the Vikings limited financial flexibility is the financial investment they have in Kirk Cousins, who has made 94 million from the Vikings since signing with them 3 seasons ago and is set to make another guaranteed 56 million over the next 2 seasons.

It’s certainly debatable whether Cousins is worth that kind of money, but his performance hasn’t been the problem and, despite his team’s record, he had one of the best seasons of his career last season, ranking 10th among quarterbacks on PFF and completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 8.27 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He played especially well on first down, averaging a ridiculous 9.26 yards per attempt. His 105.0 QB rating was 8th in the NFL and only the second best of his career only to the 107.4 QB rating he had in 2019, which was also the only season in which he ranked higher on PFF, ranking 5th. 

Overall, Cousins has completed 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.77 YPA, 91 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions in 3 seasons with the Vikings, while never finishing worse than 15th among quarterbacks on PFF. Cousins is still in the prime of his career in his age 33 season and hasn’t finished worse than 20th on PFF in 6 seasons as a starter in his career or missed a game due to injury over that stretch, so there is no reason to expect any sort of drop off from him this season, even if he isn’t necessarily quite as good as he has been over the past couple seasons.

The Vikings didn’t have a short-term need for a quarterback this off-season, but part of why I liked their draft so much was the selection of Kellen Mond with the 66th overall pick at the top of the third round, one of four picks the Vikings had in the third round after some movement around the board, including a move down from 14 to 23 in the first round. In a draft that saw 5 quarterbacks go in the top-15, it was a surprise to see Mond, arguably the best of the rest of the quarterbacks in the draft class, fall all the way to #66. 

Mond went two spots behind Jeff Trask, who was the 6th quarterback off the board, but Mond possesses a much higher ceiling and could easily develop into a long-term starter. The Vikings aren’t looking to move on from Cousins any time soon, but if Mond develops as a cheaper replacement in the background, they may opt to move on from Cousins at the end of his current deal in 2022 and, in the short-term, the Vikings lacked a clear backup behind Cousins, a role Mond will likely serve in as a rookie. How he would prove as a rookie is unclear, but Cousins’ durability and consistency will likely make that irrelevant. 

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

One consequence of the Vikings’ lack of financial flexibility this off-season was they released left tackle Riley Reiff, who finished last season above average on PFF in 15 starts, but was owed a non-guaranteed 12.75 million for his age 33 season in 2021 and was let go to free up money to address other areas. That would be a big loss if not for the Vikings selecting Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw in the first round, 23rd overall, after trading down with the Jets. Darrisaw could have some growing pains as a rookie, but was the clear 2nd best pure left tackle prospect in the draft class behind Penei Sewell (Rashawn Slater projects best at right tackle or guard) and should be a plug and play starter who will start in the NFL at the always important left tackle position for a long time. He might not be quite as good as Reiff right away, but his addition was a necessary one on draft day.

The Vikings also used a draft pick, one of their third round picks, on Ohio State’s Wyatt Davis, who could compete to start at left guard, the Vikings’ other offensive line position of need on draft day. Journeyman and 7-year veteran Dakota Dozier made 16 starts at left guard last season, after making just 11 starts in his first 6 seasons in the league, and it did not go well, with Dozier finishing 82nd among 86 eligible guards on PFF. Dozier is going into his age 30 season, so he’s unlikely to get better at this point, but it wouldn’t be hard for Davis to be an upgrade by default if he can get into the starting lineup at some point.

Regardless of who starts at left guard, the Vikings have young talented starters at their other three offensive line spots as well. Garrett Bradbury, the Vikings first round pick in 2019, starts at center, while 2018 2nd round pick Brian O’Neill starts at right tackle, and 2020 2nd round pick Ezra Cleveland starts at right guard. Bradbury struggled as a rookie, finishing 30th out of 37 eligible centers on PFF, but he took a step forward in 2020 and was about an average starter. It’s not what you would want out of a first round pick and Bradbury is a little older than his service time would suggest, going into his age 26 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward, even if that’s not a guarantee.

O’Neill is the best of the bunch and probably will be their best offensive lineman overall. He’s taken a step forward in every season in the league, going from a middling starter in 11 starts as a rookie to PFF’s 33rd ranked offensive tackle in 15 starts in 2019 and their 24th ranked offensive tackle in 16 starts last season. The Vikings probably considered moving him to right tackle before selecting Darrisaw because the left side is the more important side, but it was probably best to add a left tackle and leave O’Neill at the position he is playing well.

Ezra Cleveland didn’t take over as the starter until week 6 and only made 9 starts total as a rookie, but he earned PFF’s 29th highest grade for a guard and was an obvious upgrade over Dru Samia, who made 4 starts and finished as PFF’s 85th ranked guard out of 86 eligible. This off-season, the Vikings upgraded on Samia as a reserve, acquiring Mason Cole from the Cardinals for a late round pick. 

Cole is an underwhelming offensive lineman, but a serviceable and a versatile one. He’s made 32 career starts and played 4 different positions in 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2018 and he provides good insurance on the interior in case of injury. The Vikings also have Rashod Hill as their swing tackle and he’s shown a lot of promise in 17 career starts, so they have good depth overall. Losing Reiff hurts, but this is a talented young offensive line with a high upside across the board.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the Vikings have an intriguing offensive line, the reason they were so good offensively last season was their offensive skill position players and, if they play at a high level offensively again this season, that will once again be the reason why. The Vikings have a pair of great wide receivers who I will get into later, but this is a team built around the run, which is a big part of why they play so well on early downs. 

The difference between Dalvin Cook’s performance on first down and the rest of the downs was not as pronounced last season as Kirk Cousins, but he still averaged 5.48 yards per carry on first down. On top of that, Kirk Cousins had the 5th highest play action QB rating in the league at 122.3 (as opposed to 97.6 on non-play action plays) and Cook’s presence almost definitely was the biggest reason for that. That was also the case in 2019 when Cousins had the 4th highest play action QB rating for the league at 129.2 (97.2 on non-play action plays) alongside Cook having another dominant season.

All in all, Cook has totaled 2,692 yards and 29 touchdowns on 562 carries (4.79 YPC), while adding 97 catches for 880 yards and another touchdown through the air over the past two seasons, and he has earned PFF’s 7th and 3rd highest overall grades for a running back in those two seasons. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Cook was known for his durability issues and talent early in his career, rushing for 4.68 YPC, but on just 207 carries in 15 games combined in his first 2 seasons in the league, but he’s been as durable as any running back in the league over the past two seasons, despite a significant workload. It’s always a risk that a running back gets hurt or slows down after a big workload, especially if they have an injury history, but Cook has a good chance to remain among the league’s best running backs for a third straight season, still only in his age 26 season.

If Cook can’t do that, the Vikings have a good insurance policy in 2019 3rd round pick Alexander Mattison. Mattison doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher, but has averaged 4.57 yards per carry on 196 carries in 2 seasons in the league and should be involved as a backup even if Cook stays healthy, on a team that ranked 8th in the NFL in carries last season. #3 running back Mike Boone also flashed last season with a 5.36 YPC average on 11 carries and, while he’s no longer with the team, the Vikings used a 4th round pick on Iowa State’s Kene Nwangwu, helping to ensure they continue to have good depth at the position. They have one of the best running back groups in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the Vikings have a pair of great wide receivers. That has been the case for this team since 2016, but from 2016-2019 those two receivers were Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. In 2020, those receivers were Thielen and Justin Jefferson, a rookie wide receiver who the Vikings selected 22nd overall with a draft pick acquired from the Bills in a trade for Stefon Diggs, who was growing upset with being the 1b receiver on a run heavy team and was consequently traded.

The common opinion is that both teams won that trade because both Jefferson and Diggs had incredible seasons in 2020, but that ignores the key factors of age and salary. Diggs certainly isn’t over the hill, now heading into his age 28 season, but he had 55.5 million over 4 years remaining on his contract when acquired, while Jefferson, who is still only going into his age 22 season, is on a rookie deal that will pay him just 13.123 million over the first 4 seasons. Diggs led the league in receiving in his first season in Buffalo and posted a 127/1535/8 slash line overall, but Jefferson finished 4th with a 88/1400/7 slash line, despite playing on a run-heavier team and not breaking into the starting lineup until week 3. 

In all, Diggs received 41 more targets than Jefferson and averaged 1.95 yards per target fewer. Yards per route run also showed Jefferson to be the more efficient player, as he ranked 2nd at 2.66, while Diggs ranked 6th at 2.51. Jefferson also had the slight edge in overall grade on PFF, ranking 2nd while Diggs ranked 4th. It’s not as if the Bills lost the trade because Diggs was exactly what their offense needed and we don’t know if they would have selected Jefferson had they not traded the pick, but the Vikings got a comparably good player who is 6 years younger and a fraction of the cost, so they clearly did better for themselves in the deal. Jefferson might not be quite as efficient as he was last season in every season of his career, but it looks obvious that he is going to be one of the best receivers in the league for years to come.

Adam Thielen kind of got lost in Justin Jefferson’s shadow, but also had a solid season himself, finishing with a 74/925/14 slash line on 108 targets, ranking 3rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns, averaging 1.86 yards per route run, and earning PFF’s 6th highest grade for a wide receiver. Thielen had his 2019 season derailed by injury, but this level of production has become expected from Thielen when healthy, as he’s averaged a 88/1153/8 slash line per 16 games, excluding 2019, and has otherwise missed just 1 game due to injury. He’s also finished in the top-20 among wide receivers on PFF in each of his last four healthy seasons, including three straight healthy seasons in the top-8. 

Now going into his age 31 season, it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise to see Thielen slow down over the next few years and, either way, he looks likely to take a backseat to Jefferson going forward and operate more as a true #2 receiver. As a #2 receiver, he’s one of the best in the league, even if he’s unlikely to maintain last year’s touchdown rate regardless of whether or not he drops off. Even if Thielen isn’t quite as good as he’s been, he and Jefferson should remain one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL.

With a wide receiver duo this good and a talented pass catching back in Dalvin Cook, on a team that is more run heavy than pass heavy, there isn’t a lot of opportunity for other pass catchers in this offense. Tight end Kyle Rudolph, who had been with the team since being selected in the 2nd round in 2011, was disappointed with his role, receiving just 37 targets in 12 games last season, and consequently asked for his release when requested to take a paycut. Rudolph has been a solid player for this team for a long time, but he wasn’t worth his 8.8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary to play a part-time role in what would have been his age 32 season.

Rudolph’s release should free up more playing time for third year tight end Irv Smith, a 2019 2nd round pick who has been splitting playing time with Rudolph since entering the league. Smith has posted slash lines of 36/311/2 on 47 targets and 30/365/4 on 43 targets in two seasons in the league and I would expect a significant increase on that in his 3rd season in the league, as a good portion of the 42.5 targets per season that Rudolph received in 2019-2020 will now be going Smith’s way. He comes with significantly more pass catching upside than the veteran Rudolph, although his blocking still needs some improvement.

Along with Smith’s blocking, the other concern at tight end is their lack of depth. 2018 5th round pick Tyler Conklin is tentatively penciled in as the #2 tight end and should see a significant role in two tight end sets on a team that uses them with above average frequency, but he’s struggled throughout his career on just 869 career snaps, struggling both as a blocker and a receiver (32 career catches in 47 games). He could be a little better by default in 2021, but with only him behind Smith on the depth chart, the Vikings tight end depth is very suspect.

At wide receiver, the Vikings didn’t have another wide receiver aside from Jefferson and Thielen with more than 30 targets and, in all, other Vikings wide receivers saw a total of just 49 passes thrown their way. That number may come up a little bit in 2021, but with the other pass options available on an otherwise run based offense, there just isn’t a lot of opportunity for other wide receivers in this offense, not to mention the fact that the Vikings really lack depth at the position behind Thielen and Jefferson. 

Chad Beebe and Bisi Johnson split the #3 receiver role last season, playing 314 snaps and 239 snaps respectively, but neither showed much. Neither has a history of success either, as Beebe is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had played 89 career snaps prior to last season, while Johnson is a 2019 7th round pick who saw more playing time as a rookie when Thielen was out (538 snaps played), but hardly did anything with the opportunity, finishing with a 31/294/3 slash line. 

The Vikings used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on the position, taking a player in Ihmir Smith-Marsette who could have gone in the 3rd round and could prove to be a steal, but that’s not a guarantee he’ll contribute as a rookie, even if he probably has the most upside of the Vikings’ options for the #3 receiver job. Regardless of who wins the job, the Vikings badly need both Thielen and Jefferson to stay healthy, as this is a very top heavy receiving corps that lacks depth. All of the pieces are in place for the Vikings to have a dominant offensive season, but they might not be as lucky injury wise as they were last season and lack depth at a couple key spots.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Vikings might not be quite as lucky injury wise on offense, they will almost definitely have better injury luck on defense, where the absence of several key players for extended periods of time sunk this defense to among the worst in the league. It’s not hard to see how they could be significantly improved on this side of the ball if they can stay relatively healthy. Arguably their biggest injury absence was edge defender Danielle Hunter, who went down for the season before the season even began.

Hunter was one of the best defensive linemen in the league in 2019, finishing as PFF’s 7th ranked edge defender and totaling 14.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate, so it’s hard to understate how big his absence was. The Vikings attempted to replace Hunter by trading a 2nd round pick to the Jaguars for the franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue, but Ngakoue was only a middling player in 6 games and, with a tough start and some bad luck close losses leading to a 1-5 start, the Vikings cut their losses and sent Ngakoue to the Ravens for a third round pick. Without him, the Vikings didn’t have another edge defender who finished the season with more than 3.5 sacks.

Prior to the injury, Hunter had been one of the best pass rushers in the league throughout his career, totaling 54.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 94 career games. It took him a couple years to develop against the run and become a complete player, but he had developed into one of the most complete players in the league at his position. A return to form for Hunter is not guaranteed given the severity of his injury, but prior to the injury, he was as dependable as they come, missing just 2 games in his first 5 seasons in the league, including 48 straight starts from 2017-2019, and he’s only going into his age 27 season, so Hunter’s chances of bouncing back would seem to be better than most. Even if he’s not quite as good as he was in 2019, Hunter’s return to the lineup would be a huge boost for this defense.

The other spot opposite Hunter is still a question mark though. Ifeadi Odenigbo, who led this group with 696 snaps played and 3.5 sacks last season, signed with the Giants this off-season and, while he won’t be hard to replace, the Vikings didn’t add a clear upgrade. Veteran Stephen Weatherly, added in free agency, is the most likely option to start, now actually in his second stint with the team. Drafted by the Vikings in the 7th round in 2016, Weatherly spent his first four seasons in Minnesota before spending last season with the Panthers, but he struggled in Carolina, finishing 107th out of 119 eligible edge defenders on PFF and not recording a sack on 358 snaps in 9 games, and he was subsequently cut 1 year and 6.65 million into a 2-year, 12.5 million dollar deal.

Weatherly returns to Minnesota on a cheap one-year deal worth just 2.5 million, but he doesn’t come with much bounce back potential because he didn’t play all that well with the Vikings either, most recently finishing 113th out of 121 eligible edge defenders on 422 snaps in 2019. All in all, he’s totaled just 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 58 career games and hasn’t been much better against the run.

Weatherly will probably be the week one starter by default, but third round rookie Patrick Jones has the most upside of the bunch and could easily be a starter by season’s end, as part of what looks like a very strong draft class overall. 4th round rookie Janarius Robinson isn’t as exciting of a prospect, but I wouldn’t rule out him having a role as a rookie. DJ Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes, recent 4th round picks in 2020 and 2018 respectively, will also probably be in the mix for snaps, but both struggled on 471 snaps and 617 snaps respectively. 

Wonnum has a little more upside of the two, still only in his 2nd season in the league, but Holmes has struggled throughout his career on 748 total career snaps, most noticeably struggling as a pass rusher with just 1 career sack and a miniscule 5.0% pressure rate, and he doesn’t seem like he’s about to turn a corner and develop into a useful contributor. The Vikings will need Danielle Hunter to be something close to his top form because of their lack of other reliable options at the position, but getting anything from Hunter by default should make this group better than it was a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

It wasn’t as big of a loss as Danielle Hunter, but the Vikings also had a key defensive tackle whose season was over before it started, as free agent acquisition Michael Pierce, who the Vikings signed last off-season for 27 million over 3 years, opted out of the season for medical reasons. Pierce will be back in 2021 and the Vikings used some of what limited financial flexibility they had to sign free agent Dalvin Tomlinson to a 2-year, 21 million dollar deal to start opposite Pierce, so after Shamar Stephen (662 snaps), Jaleel Johnson (654 snaps), and Armon Watts (392 snaps) all earned middling or worse grades from PFF as the team’s leaders in snaps played among defensive tackles, the Vikings should be in much better shape at the position this season.

Prior to his opt out, Pierce was one of the best pure run stuffing defensive tackles in the league. He had a bit of a down year in 2019 due to injury, but he finished in the top-14 among interior defenders in run stopping grade in three straight seasons from 2016-2018, including a career best 4th ranked finish in 2018, and even if that was a couple years ago, he’s still theoretically in his prime in his age 29 season. 

Pierce is not much of a pass rusher and he’s never topped 594 snaps in a season as primarily a base package player throughout his career, but his 6.9% pressure rate is better than you’d expect from a 340 pounder. He’s a risky projection because of the full missed season, but he should be able to give this defensive line a big boost against the run, even if he isn’t as good as he was at his best.

Tomlinson also is a better run stuffer than pass rusher, but he’s a more complete player and a much less risky projection, having played all 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the league and only going into his age 27 season. A 2nd round pick by the Giants in 2017, Tomlinson has finished in the top-31 among interior defenders on PFF in all 4 seasons in the league, with his best season coming in 2019, when he was PFF’s 14th highest ranked interior defender against the run. 

Tomlinson only has a career 6.0% pressure rate with 8 career sacks, but he took a big step forward as a pass rusher last season with 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate. Even if he can’t quite continue that level of pass rush productivity, he should be a plug and play above average starter for this team based off of his ability against the run and his history of consistently and durability.

Depth is still a concern at the position though, especially since both Tomlinson and Pierce are likely to come off the field in many passing situations. Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson, who were the de facto starters last season, are no longer with the team and, while neither played well in their extended action, they could be valuable reserves and the Vikings are now left with fewer options behind their new starters. 

Armon Watts is still around, but he didn’t show much on 392 snaps and the same was true for him as a rookie in 2019, when the 6th round pick played just 121 snaps. James Lynch, who the Vikings selected in the 4th round in 2020, could see a bigger role in his second season in the league, but it’s hard to expect too much from him if he couldn’t get on the field for more than 59 snaps in a weak position group as a rookie. The Vikings used a 6th round pick in this past draft on Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Twyman, who could have easily gone in the 3rd or 4th round and who easily could prove to be a steal, but that doesn’t ensure he’ll be able to contribute in any meaningful way as a rookie. Pierce and Tomlinson are a solid starting duo, but depth remains a concern at this position. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Vikings also had injury issues in their linebacking corps, with their two talented every down linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr both missing extended action with injury. Barr went down for the season week 2 after just 94 snaps played on the season, while Kendricks missed the final 5 games of the season, which coincided with this defense bottoming out at the end of the season. On top of that, the Vikings tried to improve their depth at linebacker this off-season, using a 3rd round pick on North Carolina’s Chazz Surratt and signing veteran Nick Vigil in free agency. 

Eric Wilson (1,034 snaps) and Todd Davis (201 snaps), who struggled in significant action last season, are no longer with the team and, while Troy Dye (281 snaps) is still around, he’s a 2020 4th round pick who could still develop long-term and it doesn’t look like he’ll be any higher than the 5th linebacker on the depth chart, with Kendricks and Barr retaining their every down roles and Surratt and Vigil likely to compete for the third linebacker spot.

Kendricks has only played all 16 games once in 6 seasons in the league, but last season was also the first time he had ever missed more than 2 games in a season and, prior to going down with injury, he had been one of the best linebackers in the league over the past two seasons, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s 1st ranked off ball linebacker and ranking 4th at his position in 2020 at the time he got hurt. 

Kendricks had never played at that level prior to 2019, but he’s been a consistent starter since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2015 (81 career starts) and he has taken his game to another level over the past two seasons. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect him to regress this season and, even if he isn’t quite as good as he has been over the past two seasons, he should still be one of the best every down middle linebackers in the league. 

Barr isn’t quite as good, as the 3rd ranked season on PFF among off ball linebackers that he had in 2015 stands out as a huge outlier in his 7-year career, but he’s also earned an above average grade for his play in all but one healthy season as a starter and, prior to last season, he had only missed 11 games in 6 seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2014, Barr has started all 87 career games he’s played, playing an average of 61.9 snaps per game, showing ability in coverage, against the run, and as a pass rusher (15 sacks, 28 hits, and 18.6% pressure rate on an average of 7.6 pass rush snaps per game). Still only in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect any sort of significant drop off from him this season.

At the third linebacker spot, the veteran Vigil may be the favorite to start week one, but the Vikings are probably hoping Chazz Surratt can win the job at some point. Not only does Surratt have the higher long-term upside, but it wouldn’t take much for him to be a short-term upgrade, as Vigil has never earned more than a middling grade from PFF in 5 seasons in the league. He has plenty of experience, playing 2,839 snaps in 5 seasons in the league, but he’s mostly just shown himself to have a limited ceiling as a player. Even if he does win the job, the third linebacker comes off the field in sub packages for a 5th defensive back, so Vigil is unlikely to exceed the 312 snaps he played last season regardless. This has the potential to be a strong group thanks to the return of Kendricks and Barr and the addition of Surratt as a high upside young option.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Vikings also had a key player miss time with injury in the secondary as third round rookie Cameron Dantzler, who was their best cornerback when healthy, missed 5 games. When on the field, Dantzler played 601 snaps and made 10 starts in 11 games, while finishing as PFF’s 28th highest grade for a cornerback. Even with the time missed due to injury, Dantzler showed himself to have a bright future and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in a full season in 2021, though that’s not necessarily a given.

Dantzler was one of three cornerbacks the Vikings drafted last off-season, along with 1st round pick Jeff Gladney and 5th round pick Harrison Hand. Neither Gladney nor Hand has nearly as bright of a future as Dantzler though. Gladney struggled as a rookie, finishing as PFF’s 110th ranked cornerback out of 136 eligible in 15 starts and, while he would have been a strong candidate for a second year leap, he was arrested this off-season on serious charges that could end his career if proven true. In the short-term, Gladney’s status for the start and all of the 2021 season are very much in doubt. Hand, meanwhile, played just 163 nondescript snaps as a rookie and is a projection to a larger role, if he can even earn one.

Fortunately, the Vikings did sign Patrick Peterson in free agency, even before the news broke about Gladney, one of two big free agent signings they made this off-season. Peterson was once one of the best cornerbacks in the league and, while he seems past his prime, going into his age 31 season off of back-to-back middling seasons, he should still be a capable starter and a stabilizing veteran presence for a Vikings team that needed one even before Gladney’s arrest. His deal is only for one season and may prove to be an overpay at 8 million, given the depressed market overall this off-season, but he’ll fill a big hole as the starter opposite Dantzler.

The Vikings also brought in another two veteran cornerbacks in free agency, ex-Chiefs Bashaud Breeland and a familiar face in Mackensie Alexander, a 2016 second round pick who spent the first four seasons of his career in Minnesota before playing for the Bengals in 2020 on a one-year, 4 million dollar deal. Alexander wasn’t bad on a career high 642 snaps for the Bengals last season and has proven himself as a capable 3rd and 4th cornerback for the Vikings in the past, so he could prove to be a great value on a deal that barely pays him over a million for a season to return to Minnesota.

Breeland, meanwhile, has been a starter for most of his 7-year career, starting 88 of 94 career games and, while he’s been somewhat inconsistent, he’s generally been a solid starter with the exception of a couple seasons. One of those exceptions was 2019, when he finished 122nd among 135 eligible cornerbacks across 912 snaps with the Chiefs, but he bounced back well in 2020, finishing 36th among cornerbacks across 690 snaps, the 2nd best finish of his career behind his 21st ranked 2015 season. He’s not the most reliable player, but he’s a good cheap option for this team to add at a position of need. The addition of Alexander and Breeland ensures the Vikings won’t need to rely on Gladney for a big role in 2021 and the Vikings also used a 4th round pick on Camryn Bynum, who could have easily gone a round earlier.

At safety, the Vikings lost Anthony Harris to the Eagles on a one-year, 4 million dollar deal, but Harris had a down year in 2020, finishing 38th among eligible safeties on PFF, after finishing 5th and 3rd in 2018 and 2019 respectively, so he might not really be missed, especially since the Vikings did a great job of replacing him with former Cowboys safety Xavier Woods on a one-year deal worth just 1.75 million.

Woods had a down year with the Cowboys last season as just about everyone on that defense did, but he still earned about a middling grade from PFF, after earning above average grades in each of his first 3 seasons in the league prior to last season, including a career best 28th in 2019. A mere 6th round pick in 2017, Woods has already started 48 games and is only going into his age 26 season. He could prove to be one of the biggest steals of the off-season in the likely event he bounces back to his pre-2020 form, now away from that horrible Dallas defensive scheme. 

Woods will start opposite Harrison Smith, a mainstay on this defense who stood out as their best defensive player throughout last season. Smith may be slowing down a little bit, as he is going into his age 32 season now and his 15th ranked finish among safeties on PFF last season was his 2nd lowest since 2014, but that is just a reminder of how good he has been over the years. At his best, he’s finished in the top-5 among safeties on PFF 4 times in his 9-year career. Even if he continues to slow down, he should remain a solid starter at least for another couple seasons. The Vikings’ safety depth is suspect, but the rookie Camryn Bynum could potentially move to safety if needed and overall this is a solid secondary on what looks like a much improved defensive unit.

Grade: B+

Kicker/Punter

The Vikings were one of the worst special teams in the league last season, finishing 31st in special teams DVOA. They had a lot of problems, but their worst spot was kicker, with Dan Bailey finishing dead last among kickers on PFF, making just 86.0% of his extra points and 68.2% of his field goals, including just 9/16 on field goals from 30+ yards. Bailey is gone and the Vikings will almost definitely have a better kicking situation by default, but they still don’t have a reliable kicker, with veteran Greg Joseph and undrafted rookie Riley Patterson set to compete for the starting job.

Joseph was the Browns’ kicker in 2018, but he finished 32nd among 36 eligible kickers on PFF, going 25/29 on extra points and 17/20 on field goals, with a long of just 51 yards. He made all 9 extra points for the Titans in two games last season, but didn’t attempt a field goal and doesn’t have an impressive track record from his collegiate days, making just 69.5% of his field goals in college, including just 2/6 from 50+ yards. He probably won’t be as bad as Bailey was in 2020, but he figures to struggle if he wins the job.

The same is true of Patterson, who was only had a slightly more impressive collegiate career than Joseph and was never a real candidate to be drafted, after making 77.1% of his collegiate field goals, including just 68.2% in his senior year, and 9/18 on 50+ yard field goals as a 4-year starter. He might be the better option by default, but it’s up for grabs who wins this job. Bailey also struggled on kickoffs last season, but it’s unclear if his replacement will be any better in 2021. A big part of their kickoff issues can be attributed to their supporting cast, which the Vikings also needed to upgrade significantly this off-season.

The Vikings also had big problems in the punting game last season, in part because of that supporting cast, but also because of punter Britton Colquitt, who finished 35th among 40 eligible punters on PFF. The Vikings didn’t add any competition for Colquitt this off-season, but last season was the worst season of the 12-year veteran’s career and, only in his age 36 season, which is still relatively young for a punter, he has a good chance to bounce back in 2021. Even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2019 when he was PFF’s 4th ranked punter, he should be better in 2021, which will definitely benefit this team. The Vikings still have concerns at kicker, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to get better play from both the kicker and punter spot in 2021.

Grade: C+

Return Specialists

The one area where the Vikings did not finish below average in DVOA last season was their kickoff return unit, which barely scored a positive mark. Ameer Abdullah (23.5 yards per on 15 returns) and KJ Osburn (21.6 yards per on 14 returns) were their primary kickoff returners and will face competition for the job from 4th round rookie running back Kene Nwangwu and 5th round wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who averaged 28.7 yards per return and two touchdowns on 53 returns and 26.8 yards per return and 1 touchdown on 92 returns respectively as collegiate returners.

Osburn also returned punts last season, but struggled in that aspect, as did the rest of the team, which combined to average 4.3 yards per return on 16 punt returns. Chad Beebe was their other primary punt returner along with Osburn, but he has just a 5.5 yards per return average for his career. Neither of the Vikings rookie kickoff returners have punt return experience, but fortunately, the Vikings did add Dede Westbrook in free agency and he has a career 9.8 yards per punt average across 47 returns with a touchdown in his career. He seems likely to win the punt return job over Beebe and Osburn. Like at kicker and punter, the Vikings could easily get better play from the kickoff and punt return spot in 2021.

Grade: B

Special Teamers

Even if the Vikings get better play out of their kicker, punter, and returners, they will still need to get better play out of their supporting special teamers to be significantly improved on special teams in 2021. The Vikings had some special teamers who were solid overall players last season, but they didn’t have a single player who saw more than 150 snaps and finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and they had some other players who were clear weaknesses. 

They added Nick Vigil in free agency and he had a better season than any Vikings special teamer did a year ago, finishing 63rd among special teamers on PFF across 211 snaps, but he has an inconsistent history and might only prove to be a replacement for Hardy Nickerson, a solid, but unspectacular player across 229 snaps last season, who is no longer with the team. The Vikings also added Mike Boone, who played 230 snaps on special teams last season, but he struggled, so he could be addition by subtraction. 

Aside from that, the Vikings’ other big move this off-season was letting go of special teams coordinator Marwan Maalouf and replacing him with long-time assistant Sam Ficken. Normally shaking up leadership after a terrible special teams year is a good idea, but it’s not a guarantee they’ll be significantly better in 2021. Josh Metellus (257 snaps), Tyler Conklin (186 snaps), Harrison Hand (144 snaps), Ryan Connelly (196 snaps), Dan Chisena (255 snaps), and CJ Ham (215 snaps) are their best returning special teamers were a year ago, but only Ham is proven over more than one season, with the others coming off the best seasons of their career and likely to not all be as good again in 2021.

Meanwhile, Ameer Abdullah (250 snaps), Troy Dye (141 snaps), Olabisi Johnson (119 snaps), and Kris Boyd (116 snaps) all struggled last season and don’t have any history of success, so they would likely struggle again in a significant role. This group might not be that bad this season, especially if they benefit from new coaching and contributions from their rookie class, but they will likely hold this group back from being significantly improved even with other upgrades elsewhere. I wouldn’t expect this to be a terrible special teams unit again in 2021, but I would guess they would be below average.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings went just 7-9 last season, but injuries and bad special teams were a big part of the problem and both of those things should be better in 2021 due to sheer regression to the mean. They were in a tough situation this off-season from a financial flexibility situation, but they made the most of the resources they had, including a draft class that looks like it could potentially be one of the most impactful in the league in year one. 

With a potentially dominant offense and defensive and special teams units that look likely to be better after being among the worst in the league last season, the Vikings should be in playoff contention in the NFC and, with uncertainty in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers’ long-term situation, Minnesota could easily sneak in and win the division, with both Chicago and Detroit both having a less promising outlook. I will have a final prediction for the Vikings at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: Special teams is more predictive than I thought, which isn’t a good thing for the Vikings, but they should be better on special teams this season, even if it remains a weakness, and they’ve done a great job of shoring up weaknesses on the rest of this roster, adding Dede Westbrook to be the #3 receiver, Sheldon Richardson to give more depth at the interior defense spot, and Bashaud Breeland to give them another veteran cornerback. They could play well enough on both sides of the ball to contend despite underwhelming special teams play.

9/4/21: Irv Smith’s injury hurts this offense a little, as their projected starting tight end is expected to miss the entire season, but left tackle Christian Darrisaw’s injury seems less concerning than originally expected, with the left tackle avoiding injured reserve to begin the season, while their defense has counted to add valuable veteran pieces with the re-addition of Everson Griffen, who spent 2010-2019 with the Vikings and could still have some juice left as a situational pass rusher. The Vikings’ offense might not be quite as good as a year ago, but their starting from a high base point, while their defense seems likely to be significantly improved due to better depth and health. With the Packers likely to take a small step back, the Vikings are a value bet to win the NFC North.

Prediction: 11-6 1st in NFC North

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

During the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chiefs made a bold decision that would redefine their franchise for years to come. With a team stuck in good, but not good enough mode, posting five straight winning seasons and making the post-season in four of those seasons, but only managing just one playoff win, the Chiefs decided the best way to upgrade their team was not to use their first round pick on a needed starter on defense, but to package that pick together with a future first round pick to move up to 10th overall to select promising, but raw quarterback Patrick Mahomes to give them a higher upside option under center long-term, with incumbent veteran Alex Smith personifying the good, but not good enough nature of this team.

It could have easily backfired given how much they were giving up to replace a serviceable starter with an unproven commodity and Mahomes didn’t see any meaningful action at all as a rookie, but Smith was traded after the 2017 season and Mahomes instantly became one of the best and most successful quarterbacks in the league. In his first season as a starter, he became just the 2nd quarterback in NFL history to have 5,000 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns in the same season, winning the MVP for his efforts. 

His Chiefs came up just short in the 2018 AFC Championship, but it was still a remarkable finish for this team to win 12 games and make a conference championship with a defense that ranked dead last in the NFL in first down rate allowed, a testament to the effectiveness of Mahomes and the Chiefs’ league best offense. In 2019, the Chiefs fell to 3rd in first down rate, but that was only because Mahomes missed two and a half games with a knee injury and upon his return he played probably the best stretch of football of his career, leading this team all the way to a Super Bowl victory this time, now supported by a defense pulling its weight by ranking 20th in first down rate allowed.

The 2020 season started as more of the same of 2019, but that changed as the season went on. However, that wasn’t really noticeable because the Chiefs kept winning, just by a lot less, with their final 7 regular season wins coming by 6 points or fewer. The Chiefs finished at 14-2 and with the #1 overall seed in the AFC, despite losing a meaningless week 17 game when their starters didn’t play, but they finished the season just 5th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential and their record was largely the result of a 8-1 record in one score games.

It may seem like an elite quarterback like Mahomes could consistently win a high percentage of one score games, but most elite quarterbacks are unable to do so for an extended period of time, including Mahomes himself, who was just 9-8 in one score games in the first two seasons of his career, so it was concerning to see the Chiefs’ margin of victory (which was 14.4 points per game in Mahomes’ starts prior to the second half of 2020) drop off so drastically. It was especially concerning because there was an obvious culprit, with stud right tackle Mitchell Schwartz going down for the season with injury week 6.

The Chiefs’ offensive line problems became even worse when Schwartz’s counterpart, talented left tackle Eric Fisher, tore his achilles in the AFC Championship. With guard Kelechi Osemele also out for the season, the Chiefs headed into the Super Bowl without their top-3 offensive linemen and it was glaringly obvious, with Mahomes on the run for most of a blowout 31-9 loss, being pressured on a ridiculous 55.4% of his dropbacks, while nursing a toe injury of his own that eventually required off-season surgery.

Simply put, Mahomes is a generational quarterback, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 8.39 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in his first 3 seasons as a starter. However, even generational quarterbacks need the right pieces around them to win Super Bowls, as evidenced by poor defense doing the Chiefs in during 2018 and a poor offensive line doing them in last season. Mahomes should compete for multiple MVPs over the next decade and the Chiefs should be perennial Super Bowl contenders, but quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers have shown that doesn’t always result in many actual Super Bowl victories. 

The Chiefs’ ability to surround Mahomes with talent is also about to become a lot more complicated over the next decade, with Mahomes’ record breaking 10-year, 450 million dollar extension set to kick in after this season, representing a significant increase on his cost controlled rookie deal. With salary caps set to rise over the next decade and quarterback salaries always increasing, Mahomes’ deal will probably look like a relative steal in a few years, but there’s no denying that any way the Chiefs structure and restructure it, Mahomes is going to count for a significant portion of their cap for the next decade, some years more than others. 

In the salary cap era, just 7 of 27 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks accounted for more than 10% of their team’s cap and none have accounted for more than 14%. All of those Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are current or likely future Hall of Famers, with Eli Manning standing out as a possible exception in a group that includes Steve Young, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, so, in that sense, the Chiefs paying that kind of money to Mahomes is a lot more justifiable than teams giving slightly less money to significantly lesser quarterbacks, but it goes to show how difficult it is to build a Super Bowl caliber roster when your quarterback takes up such a large percentage of the cap. The Chiefs should remain contenders in 2021, but I wouldn’t consider them favorites necessarily and certainly not clear favorites, despite their incredible starting quarterback.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was obviously in bad shape after the Super Bowl and things looked to be getting worse when the Chiefs cut both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, their injured long-term starting offensive tackles, but that proved to be part of a larger plan. The Chiefs saved 18.255 million in cap space by moving on from a pair of players over 30 and coming off of serious injuries and they then used most of their newly found cap space to sign top free agent guard Joe Thuney, who is going into his age 28 season and hasn’t missed a start in 5 seasons in the league. 

A 3rd round pick by the Patriots in 2016, Thuney has developed into one of the best guards in the league. After a solid rookie year, Thuney took a big step forward in his second season in the league and has finished in the top-14 among guards on PFF in all 4 seasons since, with his best season coming in a 5th ranked finish in 2019. As reliable as they come and still in the prime of his career, there is no reason to expect anything different from Thuney in 2021.

The Chiefs also re-signed Mike Remmers, an unspectacular, but serviceable starter who mostly held up as an injury replacement in 10 starts (9 at right tackle) last season, bringing him back on a 1-year, 3.3 million dollar deal. They also signed free agent center Austin Blythe and recently unretired Kyle Long to one-year deals worth 1 million and 1.5 million respectively. With Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who made 57 starts at right guard for the Chiefs from 2015-2019, also set to return after opting out of the 2020 season, the Chiefs seemed set at every position except for left tackle ahead of the draft. 

However, instead of drafting a left tackle as most expected, they swung a surprisingly pre-draft trade for Orlando Brown of the Ravens, in a swap of picks that saw the Chiefs send their first round pick to Baltimore. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Brown is still on his rookie deal, so it wasn’t hard for the Chiefs to fit his 3.384 million dollar salary under the cap, but he’s heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants top left tackle money, which is why Baltimore decided to move on and get a significant draft pick haul while they could.

It makes for a complicated situation in the long-term because the Chiefs won’t want to let Brown leave for nothing after giving up a first round pick for him, but he’s yet to prove himself as a top left tackle, never finishing higher than 26th on PFF in a single season and playing better on the right side, where he made the first 32 starts of his career, than the left side, where he made the final 10 starts of last season in the absence of the injured Ronnie Stanley. Still, in the short-term, he’s an obvious upgrade for a team previously lacking a reliable left tackle and, only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible he’s still capable of a higher level that he hasn’t shown yet.

After trading their first round pick for Brown, the Chiefs also added Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round for good measure, so an offensive line that once was a huge concern now looks like a strong group. Humphrey could potentially play guard as well, but he’s most likely to see action for the Chiefs at center, where he’ll compete with veteran free agent acquisition Austin Blythe, who can also play some guard. 

Guard is actually where Blythe had the best season of his career, finishing 10th among guards on PFF in 2018 in 16 starts, but he struggled mightily at the position to begin the 2019 season and was subsequently moved to center, where he fared better. He then continued that into 2020, when he finished 13th among centers on PFF. The 2016 7th round pick is a capable starting center, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pushed for his job by the rookie Humphrey.

Left tackle Orlando Brown and left guard Joe Thuney are the only ones locked into a role on this offensive line. Humphrey and Blythe are competing at center and could play guard if needed, but most likely they won’t be needed to. Not only is Thuney locked in on one side, but Long, Duvernay-Tardif, and Remmers are likely to compete for the right guard and right tackle spots, leaving Humphrey and Blythe as primarily options at center. 

Duvernay-Tardif is the only one of that aforementioned trio who likely isn’t an option to start at right tackle, with all of his career starts coming at right guard, but he might also be the most likely to secure a starting role, having made 57 starts for the Chiefs in the 5 seasons prior to opting out of last season. His best days are likely behind him though, as he struggled in 2019, earning the first below average grade from PFF of his career, after an injury plagued 2018 season in which he was limited to just 331 snaps. Now after a year off, Duvernay-Tardif is going into his age 30 season and is a shakier starting option than he was just a few years ago.

Long is also a shaky starting option, as he basically opted out of the 2020 season, retiring for a year after an injury plagued previous 4 seasons from 2016-2019, a stretch in which he made just 29 starts. Long had earned an average or better grade from PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league after being drafted in the 1st round by the Bears in 2015, but by the end of his injury plagued stretch, Long was a shell of his former self, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s worst ranked guard on 250 snaps, leading to his temporary retirement. 

Long could be better this season, but only by default, as his best days are clearly behind him, now in his age 33 season. He’s not a bad option to have because he can play both right guard and right tackle and he didn’t cost the Chiefs all that much, but he would be tough to rely on as a starter. He’s also been significantly better at right guard than right tackle in his career, so, in order to be a starter, he would either have to displace the long-time starting Duvernay-Tardif or play out of position at right tackle.

Mike Remmers is probably the favorite to start at right tackle, where he wasn’t bad in Mitchell Schwartz’s absence last season, before the post-season. Remmers is experienced with 88 career starts (70 at tackle, 18 at guard) and has earned an average or better grade from PFF in all 7 seasons as a starter in his career, but he’s also never finished higher than 34th at his position and his age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season. He could remain a capable starter in 2021, but he doesn’t come with much upside and it’s good the Chiefs have insurance for him. 

Overall, this is a deep and talented offensive line with seven starting options and they have good versatility as well, with multiple players having experience at multiple positions. They’re well positioned to have solid or better offensive line play this season, even when injuries inevitably hit. Early season continuity may be a concern with a unit consistently of mostly off-season additions, but they’ve done a great job re-tooling this offensive line on the fly this off-season, without significant financial flexibility.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

While the Chiefs did a good job of retooling the offensive line, it came at the expense of some other needs, including wide receiver. That’s not to say that the Chiefs weren’t smart to prioritize the offensive line, but it’s the reality for a team that will be working with increasingly fewer resources over the next few off-seasons. Sammy Watkins, who was their #2 receiver when healthy over the past three seasons, signed with the Ravens in free agency and the Chiefs didn’t replace him and instead will rely on inexperienced players like Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and possibly 5th round rookie Cornell Powell. 

Given that, the Chiefs figure to once again give heavy target shares to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, who were targeted on a whopping 280 of Mahomes’ 588 regular season pass attempts last season, 47.6%, a number that could even increase this season with Watkins gone. Both Hill and Kelce are dynamic players who are among the best at their position, but the lack of a reliable third option is a concern and would especially become a concern if either Hill or Kelce were to miss time with injury.

Kelce hasn’t missed a game with injury since his rookie season in 2013, but that’s not a guarantee he stays healthy all season this year, especially with his age creeping up, now in his age 32 season. Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down, in fact posting a career best 105/1416/11 slash line last season, despite sitting out the Chiefs’ meaningless regular season finale. He has overall averaged a 102/1327/9 slash line in 3 seasons with Mahomes, a jump from an already impressive 77/975/6 average slash line in 4 seasons with Alex Smith, while finishing in the top-4 among tight ends on PFF in 5 straight seasons and 6 seasons overall. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his decline begin this season, given his age. 

Even if he’s not quite at his best, Kelce would still be one of the top few tight ends in the league, but it’s something to keep in mind, especially in a top heavy receiving corps that severely lacks tight end depth. Nick Keizer was 2nd on the team in tight end snaps with 302, but the 2018 undrafted free agent finished 80th out of 82 eligible tight ends on PFF in the first action of his career. Fellow 2018 undrafted free agent Deon Yelder played 194 snaps last season, but he’s been underwhelming across just 242 career snaps. 

The Chiefs also brought back Blake Bell, who finished 63rd out of 71 eligible tight ends as the Chiefs’ #2 tight end in 2019, before spending the 2020 season in Dallas. He has some experience, but he has never topped 398 snaps in a season or earned an above average grade in a season from PFF and now he heads into his age 30 season. The Chiefs desperately need Kelce to continue to stay healthy and to not decline significantly.

Top wide receiver Tyreek Hill has more of a recent injury history than Kelce, but he’s still only missed 5 games with injury in 5 seasons in the league and he also remains very much in his prime in only his age 27 season. Off-the-field concerns caused Hill to fall to the 5th round in 2016, but he flashed in part-time action as a rookie and has broken out as a #1 wide receiver in the four seasons since, posting a 75/1183/7 slash line in 15 games with Alex Smith in 2017 and averaging a 86/1345/13 slash line per 16 games in 3 seasons since Mahomes became the starter, serving as the perfect deep threat complement to the big armed Mahomes. Even including his rookie season, Hill has averaged at least 2.16 yards per route run and finished in the top-17 among wide receivers on PFF in all 5 seasons in the league, making him among the most consistent #1 wide receivers in the league. I see no reason for that to change in 2021.

Of the Chiefs’ inexperienced pass catchers, Mecole Hardman has by far the best chance to breakout in a bigger role. A 2nd round pick in 2019 who profiled almost identically to Hill as a prospect aside from the off-the-field concerns, Hardman has yet to surpass 500 snaps in a season, but he’s shown promise with an average of 1.73 yards per route run and 16.4 yards per catch and, with the #2 wide receiver job in this explosive offense seemingly his to lose, he could easily break out with an impressive statistical year in his third season in the league. He may end up being one of those players whose raw stats are more impressive than his actual play, as someone who could get a big target share in an explosive offense that takes a lot of deep shots, but you could do worse as a #2 wide receiver and he comes with plenty of upside.

Even if Hardman can step up as the #2 wide receiver, their depth behind him is pretty suspect. DeMarcus Robinson has gotten opportunity, as the 2016 4th round pick has averaged 426 routes run per season over the past 4 years, but he’s earned a below average grade from PFF in every season and has managed just 0.90 yards per route run in his career, despite incredible quarterback play. 2018 undrafted free agent Byron Pringle is the other realistic candidate for the #3 receiver job because the Chiefs seem to like him, but he’s barely played in his career, totaling just 383 snaps and his 1.46 yards per route run average is nothing to write home about either. This is a talented, but top heavy receiving corps that can’t afford an injury to their top-2 guys.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Chiefs also lack depth at the running back position and instead seem likely to rely on 2020 1st round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a larger capacity in his second season in the league. Edwards-Helaire was originally drafted to work in tandem with veteran Damien Williams, but he opted out of the 2020 season, leaving inexperienced 2018 undrafted free agent Darrel Williams as the #2 running back, at least until the Chiefs were able to sign veteran Le’Veon Bell when the Jets released him mid-season. Bell ate up 63 carries and limited Edwards-Helaire to 181 carries and 36 catches, but he wasn’t retained in free agency and Damien Williams was traded to the Bears upon return from his opt out, so Darrel Williams is currently the #2 back again, despite just 93 carries in his career, and Edwards-Helaire seems primed for a larger role.

Edwards-Helaire showed himself to be a good runner as a rookie, averaging 4.44 yards per carry with a 9th ranked 56% carry success rate and, while he benefited from defenses selling out to stop the pass, he still averaged 2.98 yards per carry after contact and earned PFF’s 21st highest run grade among running backs. However, one area he will need to improve if he is going to become a true featured back is as a receiver, as he averaged just 5.50 yards per target and 1.04 yards per route run last season, despite a dominant quarterback throwing him the ball. Even if he can become a featured back in 2021, Edwards-Helaire will still probably come off the field in some passing situations for Jerick McKinnon, a veteran who comes over from the 49ers as a free agent this off-season. 

McKinnon isn’t a candidate to get more than a few carries per game, as he was a mediocre runner in 4 seasons with the Vikings (4.03 YPC on a max of 159 carries in a season) even before missing all of his first two seasons with the 49ers with leg injuries in 2018 and 2019, which continued to limit him in a 2020 season in which he averaged 3.94 YPC on 81 carries. However, he’s a capable pass catcher who had a career best 51/421/2 in his final season with the Vikings in 2017 and continued to show something with a 33/253/1 slash line last season, although his 5.50 yards per target average left something to be desired. He’s a situational pass catching back only at this stage of his career, but he could still see action in a thin backfield. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs add another cheap, capable running back to the mix at some point, given that it wouldn’t be that hard for them to do so inexpensively.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The biggest and most important need that the Chiefs didn’t address this off-season while prioritizing their offensive line is the defensive end position, where the Chiefs didn’t have a player other than Frank Clark with more than 3 sacks in the regular season. In total, the Chiefs managed just 32 sacks as a team last season, a below average total that is especially disappointing for a team that plays with many leads. That total was despite team sack leader Chris Jones being an interior pass rusher, further highlighting their issues at the edge defender position. 

Despite that, the Chiefs didn’t make a significant addition at the position aside from 4th round rookie Joshua Kaindoh and they actually lost a pair of players from last year’s group in Tanoh Kpassagnon (720 snaps) and Alex Okafor (283 snaps), who, while they didn’t play well, at least have starting experience. Kaindoh figures to have a good chance to earn a significant role as a rookie and, as of right now, it looks like 2020 5th round pick Michael Danna will be the starter opposite Clark, even though he was underwhelming in just 334 snaps as a rookie. 

The Chiefs also took a flyer on former Cowboys first round bust Taco Charlton, who has played for three different teams in just four seasons in the league and has played middling at best across an average of 322 snaps per season, including just 91 snaps last season for a Chiefs team that called him up off the practice squad mid season. Charlton isn’t that young anymore, now in his age 27 season, so it’s a long shot that he has serious untapped potential. The Chiefs will be counting on one or two of Danna, Charlton, and the rookie Kaindoh to surprise, otherwise they figure to once again get poor play at the position behind Frank Clark.

Even Frank Clark didn’t have a great season last season and, while he’s had some big post-season moments, his regular season play has been disappointing in two seasons with the Chiefs, given that the Chiefs gave up not only a first round pick to acquire him, but signed him to a 5-year, 104 million dollar deal that still ranks 6th in the NFL among edge defenders. A second round pick by the Seahawks in 2015, Clark had 32 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in his final three seasons with Seattle, but he’s seen that drop off to 14 sacks, 19 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in two seasons since joining the Chiefs, hampered by multiple nagging injuries. 

Never a particularly good run defender either, Clark hasn’t justified his salary thus far and could be entering a make or break season, owed a non-guaranteed 19.5 million in 2022 on a team that lacks long-term financial flexibility. Still only in his age 28 season, Clark is theoretically in the prime of his career and could bounce back, but that’s not a guarantee now three years removed from his career best 20th ranked finish among edge defenders on PFF in 2018. The Chiefs will need him to bounce back, at a position group that otherwise looks very thin and lacks proven players.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Chiefs are in a lot better shape on the interior. Chris Jones led the team in sacks last season and, while he had just 7.5 sacks, he added another 21 hits and a 13.6% pressure rate and he had 24.5 sacks combined in the previous 2 seasons, so last year’s relatively reduced sack total is mostly the result of bad luck and I would expect it to bounce back in 2021, with Jones still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones showed a lot of promise as a rookie and broke out as one of the top interior defensive linemen in the league in his second season in the league, finishing in the top-8 among interior defenders on PFF in 4 straight seasons since then. He’s been especially dominant as a pass rusher over the past 3 seasons with 32 sacks, 50 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate, among the best in the league by an interior rusher, and I wouldn’t expect anything different from him in 2021.

The Chiefs also bring back Derrick Nnadi, who doesn’t get much pass rush, with just 1 sack and 1 hit and a 5.2% pressure rate in 3 seasons since the Chiefs took him in the 3rd round in 2018, but who excels against the run, improving in all three seasons in the league, culminating in a 8th ranked finish in run defense grade among interior defenders. Nnadi played just 460 snaps last season as almost exclusively a base package player and he’s never topped more than 598 snaps in a season, but the Chiefs improved their depth at the position this off-season by acquiring ex-Seahawk Jarran Reed, following his release by Seattle this off-season.

Reed’s release was the result of not being worth a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, but, while he struggles against the run, he’s been an effective pass rusher over the past 4 seasons, with 20.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate, earning him middling grades overall from PFF, despite his struggles against the run, so he could be a good addition for the Chiefs at the reduced 5.5 million dollar salary they signed him at. He and Nnadi complement each other well and will likely rotate frequently depending on the situation.

Reed addition leaves Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who actually finished his rookie season 2nd on the team in interior defenders snaps slightly ahead of Nnadi with 518, with an uncertain role going forward, especially with 2019 3rd round pick Khalen Saunders set to return from an injury that limited him to just 74 snaps in 3 games last season. Wharton wasn’t bad last season, but he could be upgraded on, which the Seahawks did by adding Reed, leaving Wharton to compete with Saunders for playing time. He may win that job, despite Saunders being a higher draft pick, but only because Saunders has yet to show anything across 377 career snaps, struggling as a rookie in limited action before last year’s injury plagued season. This is a deep group overall and it’s led by one of the best in the league at his position in Chris Jones.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Chiefs did address their linebacking corps this off-season, adding Missouri’s Nick Bolton in the 2nd round of the draft, a much needed move because this team lacked an every down linebacker last season, instead stringing together a group of capable run stuffers Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens, capable coverage linebacker Ben Niemann, and hybrid safety/linebacker Daniel Sorensen, who saw frequent action as a true linebacker in sub packages. In all, the group wasn’t terrible, but no one played more than 603 snaps and there was definitely room for improvement.

Bolton might not play every down as a rookie and could have growing pains even if he doesn’t, but the potential of him and last year’s 2nd round pick Willie Gay breathe some life into a group that has been mostly a liability for years. Gay was only limited to 269 snaps as a rookie, which was strange because he showed potential in an otherwise underwhelming group and earned the unit’s highest overall grade from PFF, both in overall grade and in coverage grade, but he easily could see a much bigger role in his 2nd season in the league.

Damien Wilson is no longer with the team, but Anthony Hitchens was retained, somewhat surprising, as the cap strapped Chiefs could have saved 6.5 million by moving on from a player who played just 603 snaps last season and struggled in coverage, but he remains and, assuming he isn’t a late cap casualty, he should remain in primarily a base package role and could easily see his playing time fall even more with Bolton being added and Gay likely receiving a larger role. The Chiefs like the veteran leadership of Hitchens, probably the main reason why he remains on the roster, but he’s struggled in coverage throughout his 7-year career, has only surpassed 700 snaps in a season once, and hasn’t earned an above average grade overall from PFF since 2017.

Ben Niemann and Daniel Sorensen are also underwhelming options if they have to continue seeing playing time in sub packages. Niemann isn’t bad in coverage, but he’s a 2018 undrafted free agent whose 499 snaps last season were a career high, and he struggled mightily against the run. Sorensen, meanwhile, has been adequate at best as a coverage linebacker in his career and is unlikely to suddenly get significantly better, now going into his age 31 season. This should be a better group this season, but they need their young players to step up for this group to be significantly improved and no longer be a liability.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Daniel Sorensen may also see some action at safety, but Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are locked in as the starters. A second round pick by the Chiefs in 2019, Thornhill had an impressive rookie season, finishing as PFF’s 32nd ranked safety in 16 starts, but he tore his ACL in week 17 and, though he returned for week 1 in 2020, he did not seem to be the same player, finishing 84th among 99 eligible safeties and especially struggling in coverage. Now another year removed from the injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back and resume developing into an above average starter, although that can’t be considered a guarantee.

Mathieu also had a bit of a down year last year, in part due to giving up more big plays than normal, but he still finished an above average 49th among safeties on PFF, after ranking 21st in 2018 and 20th in 2019. A versatile joker type player who can play deep safety, in the box, and on the slot, Mathieu is still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in 2021 from his slightly down 2020 season. Both he and Thornhill look likely to be better in 2021 than 2020 and likely to be an above average starting safety duo once again, leaving Sorensen as a reserve safety and situational linebacker.

At cornerback, things are a lot less settled, primarily due to the loss of cornerback Bashaud Breeland, who was PFF’s 38th ranked cornerback last season. While Breeland was their only significant loss at the position and their top-3 returning cornerbacks all received average or better grades from PFF, Bashuad was their de facto #1 cornerback when in the lineup, playing 690 snaps in 11 games, while returning cornerbacks Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Snead played just 782 snaps, 527 snaps, and 410 snaps respectively last season. Further complicating the situation, the Chiefs took flyers on a pair of recent first round picks in Mike Hughes and DeAndre Baker, who are likely to be in the mix for roles as well, so this is very much a position in flux.

Snead played the best of all the Chiefs’ cornerbacks last season, finishing 20th among cornerbacks, despite being only a 4th round rookie, but that came across just 410 snaps, so he’s very unproven and not necessarily a guarantee to translate that into a season long starting role. Fenton is a similar situation. The 2019 6th round pick is also inexperienced, having played just 693 career snaps, but he’s flashed a lot of promise on those limited snaps, including a 31st ranked finish among cornerbacks on 527 snaps last season. Like Snead, he has the upside to develop into a solid season long starter, but he’s a projection to a larger role.

With Breeland missing time with injury, Ward played the most snaps among the Chiefs’ cornerbacks last season with 782 and is the most experienced of the bunch this year. After making 29 starts over the past two seasons and largely holding up as a solid starter, he figures to be as close as to a lock to be a starter as the Chiefs have. The 2018 undrafted free agent hasn’t shown a high ceiling thus far in his career, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and it’s possible that could change.

As much as the Chiefs’ returning cornerbacks are wild cards who are tough to predict, that’s especially true of the former first round picks Mike Hughes and DeAndre Baker, who the Chiefs took flyers on. Hughes was a first round pick in 2018 by the Vikings and showed some promise his rookie year, but he suffered a torn ACL week 6 and his career has been derailed ever since, as he has dealt with more injuries, has struggled when on the field, and has overall been limited to 917 snaps played in 24 games in 3 seasons in the league, leading Minnesota sending him to the Chiefs for a swap of late round picks this off-season. If he can stay healthy, Hughes theoretically still has upside in his age 24 season, but it might be a long shot that he doesn’t get hurt and becomes a capable starter.

Baker, meanwhile, was a first round pick of the Giants in 2019, but he followed up a miserable rookie season in which he finished 121st out of 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF in 15 starts with an off-the-field incident that led to the Giants cutting ties with him last off-season after just one season. The Chiefs actually picked him up towards the end of last season after his charges were dropped, but he played just 45 snaps total before a leg injury ended his season. If he can stay out of further trouble and stay healthy, he also has theoretical upside in his age 24 season, but like Hughes he might be a long shot. The Chiefs cornerback group has upside, but a lot of uncertainty. This isn’t a bad secondary, but their cornerback situation gives them a high variance as a unit.

Grade: B

Kicker/Punter

The Chiefs were about average overall on special teams last season, finishing the year ranked 17th in special teams DVOA. One big strength for them was place kicking, as they finished above average in place kicking DVOA and missed just two field goals all season. Kicker Harrison Butker strangely struggled more on extra points, missing 6 and going just 48/54, despite making all 18 of his field goal attempts from within 40 yards, but that seems like an anomaly and Butker has been a consistently reliable kicker since entering the league in 2017, making 93.5% of his extra points and 90.9% of his field goals, while missing just twice from inside 40 yards and ranking in the top-7 among kickers on PFF in three of four seasons.

Butker was not as effective on kickoffs and, combined with inconsistent play from their special teamers, that led to the Chiefs finishing slightly below average in kickoff DVOA, but they did at least get good play from their punting unit. They finished with an above average punting DVOA and got a strong season from rookie punter Tommy Townsend, who was PFF’s 8th ranked punter and finished 5th with an average of 4.46 seconds of hang time per kickoff. Both Townsend and Butker seem likely to have above average years again in 2021.

Grade: A-

Return Specialists

The Chiefs returned a punt for a 67-yard touchdown last season, but on their other 27 punt returns they averaged just 3.8 yards per and, even with the touchdown included, they still finished below average in punt return DVOA. Mecole Hardman was their primary punt returner and averaged 7.0 yards per return across 25 returns, including that one touchdown where his supporting cast did most of the work. 

Hardman also struggled with a 20.4 yards per return average across 9 kickoff returns, but Byron Pringle actually led the team with 10 kickoff returns and he took them for 32.4 yards per, including a 102-yard touchdown. As a result, the Chiefs actually finished 4th in yards per kickoff return at 25.8 and they had an above average kickoff return DVOA. Both Hardman and Pringle are candidates for bigger roles at wide receiver in 2021 with Sammy Watkins gone, which could affect how much they are used on special teams, but I would expect both to continue seeing some return action. 

Hardman, a 2019 2nd round pick, had better success on returns as a rookie in 2019, averaging 26.1 yards per kickoff return and 9.3 yards per punt return, so he could bounce back a little in 2021. Pringle is less experienced and has never returned a punt, but he was clearly the better of the two kickoff returners in 2020. The Chiefs could also sprinkle Tyreek Hill in on returns more often to take some of the burden off of Hardman and Pringle. 

Hill was one of the most prolific returners in the league earlier in his career, taking 14 kickoff returns for 27.4 yards per and 86 punt returns for 11.7 yards per and scoring five touchdowns in three seasons, but was taken off of the return unit so he could avoid injury and focus on offense and, as a result, hasn’t returned anything since 2018. He won’t suddenly have a big return role again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs use him in certain situations because of how dynamic he is with the ball in his hands. This is an unsettled group, but the Chiefs at least have intriguing options.

Grade: B+

Special Teamers

While the Chiefs weren’t bad on special teams in 2020, it had to be a disappointing year overall for this year, as they had finished in the top-10 in special teams DVOA in eight straight seasons prior to last season, with six finishes in the top-4, coinciding with the arrival of Andy Reid and special teams coordinator Dave Toub, who has interviewed for several head coaching jobs during his tenure with the Chiefs and added the title of assistant head coach a few years ago.

The Chiefs didn’t change much this off-season to try to improve, but that could prove to be the right approach. Daniel Sorensen (167 snaps), Ben Niemann (245 snaps), and Dorian O’Daniel (217 snaps) are their best returning special teamers and all three had above average seasons on PFF, but none of them finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF and all three are very proven, so that’s a disappointing finish for them. 

For Niemann, who still finished 110th among special teamers on PFF, it was the worst finish for him in his three seasons in the league, finishing 15th across 259 snaps in 2018 and 8th across 280 snaps in 2019. Sorensen, meanwhile, has four top-100 finishes among special teamers on PFF in seven seasons in the league, including a 86th ranked finish in 2020, and, while O’Daniel’s 80th ranked finish in 2020 was a career best, he’s still finished above average on PFF in all three seasons in the league. It wouldn’t be a surprise for all three to be better in 2021 and even if only a couple are, that would be a big boost for this group.

The Chiefs also retained Nick Keizer (221 snaps) and Armani Watts (353 snaps), who had solid seasons in 2020, but it’s not all good news as Antonio Hamilton (328 snaps) who also had a solid season in 2020, is no longer with the team, replaced by veteran signing Blake Bell, who has been a middling special teamer at best in his career. Their depth will also need to take a step forward from a year ago, but they should at least get strong play from their core special teamers. With good talent at kicker, punter, and returner as well, along with one of the best special teams coordinators in the league, the Chiefs should be closer to their high level 2013-2019 performance than their middling 2020 performance overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs are obviously one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season, but they may still be a little bit of an overrated team. They patched up the offensive line problems that caused many of their wins to be close calls in the regular season and that eventually caused their defeat in the Super Bowl, but it came at the expense of not addressing other needs at the offensive skill positions and on defense, not notably their lack of edge rushers. They’ll be contenders, but they’re not the favorites that many may view them as. I will have a final prediction for the Chiefs at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: The Chiefs are one of the teams that benefits from special teams being more predictive than most think, as they should be significantly improved in that aspect in 2021, further solidifying their grasp on being a top level contender.

9/4/21 Update: The Chiefs have some injury concerns on their rebuilt offensive line to begin the season, but nothing compared to what they were dealing with in the post-season last year and they still look like arguably the best team in the league, especially since their special teams seem likely to be significantly improved from a year ago. The biggest thing working against them making their 3rd straight Super Bowl might be fatigue, as this team has played more than anyone over the past two seasons.

Prediction: 14-3 1st in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2021 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

After the Falcons almost impossibly blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl following the 2016 season, the franchise became synonymous with blown leads, but in some ways, that’s nothing compared to what happened to the Falcons in 2020, when they lost four games in which they had a winning probability of 95% or higher at some point in the second half. Their first two blown leads were the biggest collapses, as the Falcons had a 99% chance of winning each game under 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter and the games came in back-to-back weeks. 

Against the Cowboys in week 2, the Falcons led 26-7 in the 2nd quarter, 39-24 in the 4th quarter, and 39-30 with under 5 minutes to play and possession, but somehow managed to lose 40-39 in a game that included a Dallas onside kick recovery. The following week, they led the Bears 26-10 in the 4th quarter, only to allow three straight touchdown drives by the hapless Bears offense. There was a less than 1 in 100 chance that the Falcons would blow either lead, but somehow they managed to blow both leads in back-to-back weeks, a probability of less than 1 in 10,000. And it didn’t even end there. 

Their other two blown leads weren’t quite as egregious, but only by default, as they lost a game to the Lions in week 7 that the Falcons would have won with a kneel down and a chip shot field goal and in week 15 they blew a 24-7 3rd quarter lead to the Buccaneers. Making matters even worse, the Falcons only won 4 games all season, meaning they blew as many almost victories as they had actual victories and could have been a respectable 8-8 rather than 4-12 if they had just held on to those leads. In terms of average lead, the Falcons actually ranked 8th in the NFL last season, which makes the fact that they managed to win just four games seem borderline impossible.

In total, the Falcons went just 2-7 in one score games last season and they had a point differential of -18 which also suggests the Falcons were closer to a 8-8 record. First down rate differential isn’t quite as kind to them, but when factoring in that the Falcons had the second toughest schedule in the league last year, sharing a division with the Saints and Buccaneers, they finished the season with a -0.36% schedule adjusted first down rate differential that was 19th in the NFL, also significantly better than their record suggested. 

A team’s record in close games is one of the least predictable stats on a year-to-year basis and even a seemingly cursed team like the Falcons could see their luck in close games turn around after last season. In fact, the Falcons actually went 49-36 in one score games in the previous 10 seasons prior to last season, so it’s not as if they’re inherently bad in close games. With better luck in close games, it wasn’t hard at the end of the 2020 season to see how the Falcons could have a significantly improved win total in 2021.

However, even with that optimism, the Falcons came into this off-season at a crossroads, for various reasons. For one, they were looking for a new head coach for the first time in 6 off-seasons, after letting go of overmatched head coach Dan Quinn mid-season. The Falcons decided on former Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who has worked wonders with a Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry led Titans team over the past two seasons, getting career best play out of both of those two playmakers and riding them to back-to-back highly ranked offensive seasons and back-to-back playoff appearances. However, once Smith and new GM Terry Fontenot were put into place, a direction needed to be decided for this franchise. 

Despite their record last season, this was very much a team that was in win-now mode, with one of the oldest rosters in the league and one of the league’s worst cap situations. By virtue of their 4-12 record, the Falcons were picking 4th overall in one of the better quarterback drafts in recent memory and had the opportunity to draft a quarterback of the future behind the still very capable, but aging and highly paid Matt Ryan, officially starting a rebuilding process that would likely lead to other veterans being replaced and traded/released over the next two off-seasons. The Falcons also had the opportunity to potentially trade down and accumulate extra picks, much needed for an aging team that hasn’t drafted particularly well in recent years, while still adding to their goal of winning now, as a deep rookie class could be the difference between a sub-.500 finish and a trip to the post-season

Instead, they went with neither of those options, staying put at #4 overall and selecting Florida’s Kyle Pitts with the highest ever pick used on a tight end. Pitts is as good of a receiving tight end prospect as the NFL has ever seen, so it’s understandable that he would be a high pick, but you have to question the fit for a team with an already strong passing game, but a lacking running game and various needs on defense, which would have been better addressed with multiple later picks.

Of course, quarterback Matt Ryan has to be happy with the pick, as not only does it mean that he likely has another two more seasons in Atlanta, with no realistic way to find a cheaper replacement unless they bottom out again in 2021, but he also gets another dynamic weapon in the passing game. Head coach Arthur Smith also has to be happy with the pick, as he reportedly pushed for the Falcons to draft Pitts rather than a quarterback, believing Ryan still had at least another couple seasons at his current level of play.

Ryan is going into his age 36 season, but Smith’s belief could easily be correct, given the recent history of quarterbacks playing at a high level into their late 30s. Ryan has also barely ever missed time with injury, missing just 3 games in 13 seasons in the league since the Falcons selected him 3rd overall in 2008, and he showed no signs of dropping off in 2020, finishing as PFF’s 11th ranked quarterback and completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.32 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, giving him a QB rating of 93.3 which is very much in line with his career average of 94.5. In total, he’s finished in the top-16 among quarterbacks on PFF in 12 of 13 seasons in the league and I would expect the same from him in 2021.

The Falcons will have to hope so, as they didn’t draft a developmental quarterback at any point and instead brought in veteran journeyman AJ McCarron to be Ryan’s backup. A 5th round pick in 2014, McCarron showed some promise early in his career, but ultimately has made just 4 career starts in 7 seasons in the league, split across three different teams. His 86.7 career QB rating isn’t bad, but it’s hard to know what to expect from a player who has made just 1 total start over the past 5 seasons. You could do worse than him as a backup quarterback, but the Falcons would obviously be in trouble if Ryan missed extended action.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

With the Falcons staying put at 4 and selecting Kyle Pitts instead of trading down and accumulating extra picks, one glaring need that they didn’t address on draft day was running back, which they didn’t use a single pick on. The Falcons signed Todd Gurley last off-season, hoping that the former MVP candidate would bounce back on a one-year deal, but he managed just a 3.48 YPC average on 195 carries and by the end of the season was splitting carries with Brian Hill and Ito Smith. Hill and Smith fared better, averaging 4.65 YPC on 100 carries and 4.25 YPC on 63 carries respectively, but the Falcons still finished the season 31st in the NFL with 3.75 YPC and all three of Gurley, Hill, and Smith were not retained this off-season.

In free agency, the Falcons signed ex-Panther Mike Davis to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal, but Davis isn’t a feature caliber back that the Falcons don’t need another capable back to pair with, so it was very surprising they didn’t add a running back at all on draft day. Davis essentially was a feature back last season with the Panthers, with 163 carries and 51 catches in 12 starts when running back Christian McCaffrey was injured, but his efficiency stats left something to be desired, as he averaged just 3.91 yards per carry and 4.82 yards per target in those 12 starts.

Davis also had never played nearly as significant of a role as he did last year in his previous 5 seasons in the league, entering last season with 247 career carries and 66 career catches, and his efficiency stats weren’t impressive over those touches either, with 3.59 YPC and 5.00 yards per target. A running back in his age 28 season, it’s highly unlikely Davis suddenly breaks out as a feature caliber running back. He figures to be underwhelming for the Falcons, but could total some relatively impressive numbers based on the volume he figures to handle, barring the addition of another veteran running back in free agency.

The Falcons’ decision to not yet add another running back may say something about 2019 5th round pick Qadree Ollison, but it’s hard to expect anything from him, given that he has just a 2.30 YPC on 23 career carries, with just 1 of those carries coming last season. He’s currently penciled in as the #2 running back by default, because Tony Brooks-James, who has just 11 career rushing yards, is their only other running back with NFL experience. 

The Falcons also signed hybrid wide receiver/running back Cordarelle Patterson in free agency and he has averaged 4.50 YPC over the past 3 seasons on 125 carries, while adding 70 catches in 57 games, but he isn’t a legitimate option for a significant role as a runner, with his career high in carries being the 64 he had last season. This is arguably the most underwhelming running back group in the NFL.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

I will get into Kyle Pitts and this receiving corps shortly, but one player they could have selected with the 4th overall pick if they didn’t have a good offer to trade down was offensive tackle Penei Sewell. The Falcons have used three first round picks on offensive linemen since 2014, including a pair in 2019, but they still had a glaring need upfront going into the draft, with veteran center Alex Mack and veteran left guard James Carpenter not being retained in free agency, one that Pewell could have addressed.

Neither Mack nor Carpenter played all that well last season and the Falcons had 2020 3rd round pick Matt Hennessy, a versatile interior lineman who could have taken over for either one of them, but Hennessy struggled on 225 rookie year snaps and even if he can develop into a capable starter in his second season in the league, he can only start at one position. On top of that, 2019 1st round pick Kaleb McGary has disappointed in two seasons in the league (29 starts), showing some ability as a run blocker, but earning below average pass protection grades from PFF in both seasons, and he could have moved inside to guard if the Falcons selected Pewell 4th overall. 

Instead, the Falcons addressed the offensive line in the 3rd and 4th rounds, adding Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield and Stanford’s Drew Dalman. Mayfield was a tackle in college and it’s possible he stays at right tackle as a professional, moving McGary inside, but Mayfield also fell in the draft because of his short arms and might profile better as a guard at the next level. Either way, he has a good chance to start week 1, even as just a 3rd round rookie, as the Falcons’ next best option would be plugging swing tackle Matt Gono, who has struggled on 379 career snaps since going undrafted in 2018, into the starting lineup somewhere. 

Dalman, meanwhile, could push Hennessy at center if Hennessy continues to struggle there in his 2nd season. It’s good the Falcons addressed their offensive line with multiple picks, but it’s unclear how much either will be able to contribute as a rookie. With Hennessy and McGary being unreliable young starting options as well, particularly the former, the Falcons are hoping that multiple unproven players will surprise upfront. Most likely, left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom will remain the Falcons’ best two offensive linemen. 

Unlike fellow first round pick Kaleb McGary, who has yet to establish himself, Matthews and Lindstrom have proven to be worth the first round picks the Falcons invested in them, in 2014 and 2019 respectively. After a shaky rookie year, Matthews has developed into a consistently above average left tackle, finishing with an above average grade from PFF in all 6 seasons since his rookie year, including 4 seasons in the top-12. He’s never finished higher than 10th at his position in a single season, but he’s been highly consistent and very reliable, with just 1 start missed in 7 seasons in the league, and he’s still very much in his prime in his age 29 season, so I don’t expect any sort of noticeable dropoff from him in 2021.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, was a surprise pick 14th overall when the Falcons selected him, one pick after the Dolphins took Atlanta’s original target, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. However, after a promising, but injury plagued rookie year, in which he played just 309 snaps, Lindstrom broke out as PFF’s 9th ranked guard in 16 starts in his second season in the league in 2020. He’s not a guarantee to be as good again in 2021, as the development of young players is not always linear, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and could keep getting better and develop into one of the better guards in the league over the next couple seasons. This is probably a below average offensive line, but they have some young players with upside.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Note: This was written before the Julio Jones trade, which I get into in the conclusion.

With the Falcons lacking financial flexibility this off-season, their biggest off-season addition was 4th overall pick Kyle Pitts. Tight end wasn’t really a need, but Pitts is an elite receiving prospect who can be an obvious upgrade over Hayden Hurst, a former 1st round pick in his own right who the Falcons acquired from the Ravens for a 2nd round pick last off-season, but who has failed to live up to expectations throughout his career, averaging just 1.27 yards per route run in 3 seasons in the league, with 99 catches in 44 games. Old for a rookie, Hurst is already going into his age 28 season, so it’s unlikely he has significant untapped upside. 

Hurst had a 56/571/6 slash line last season, but he is unlikely to get the opportunity to even come close to those numbers, which came on 88 targets, while Pitts has a good chance to exceed those numbers even as a rookie. However, he might not exceed those numbers by as much as you’d expect, as rookie tight ends notoriously have a steep learning curve in the NFL and only 13 tight ends exceeded that receiving total in 2020. Pitts will make an impact on this offense, but it’s unlikely to be the impact needed to justify his draft slot, especially on a team that already had a good passing game.

Last season, that passing game was led by third year receiver Calvin Ridley, as the former first round pick finished with a 90/1374/9 slash line (5th in the NFL in receiving yards) and became the first Falcon other than Julio Jones to lead this team in receiving yardage since 2013. Ridley showed potential in the first two years of his career, averaging 1.73 yards per route run and he took a noticeably step forward in his third season in the league, with his yards per route run shooting up to 2.44, 8th in the NFL. Ridley might not quite be as good in 2021, but he looks like one of the better young receivers in the league.

Julio Jones is still on this team, but injuries limited him to 468 snaps in 9 games in 2020. He still showed his usual form when on the field, averaging 2.60 yards per route run, in line with his career average of 2.68, and ranking 9th among wide receivers on PFF, his 7th straight season in the top-9 at his position. Both of those make him among the most accomplished wide receivers of the past decade, but the injuries are starting to pile up for a receiver who hasn’t finished in the top-10 among wide receivers in routes run in a season since 2014 and, now going into his age 32 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his efficiency decline as well. 

Jones will probably remain one of the better wide receivers in the league even if he does decline, but wide receivers tend to drop off pretty suddenly around 33-34. The Falcons also have reportedly explored trades for Jones and his 18.05 million dollar salary, but they’re unlikely to move him unless they get the kind of offer they’re unlikely to get from a team. The Falcons already signaled by keeping Matt Ryan and not selecting a quarterback at 4 that the Falcons still view themselves in win-now mode and trading Jones for a draft pick in 2022 or beyond would not work to that goal.

The Falcons will probably use more two tight end sets this season with Pitts being added and Hurst now becoming one of the better #2 tight ends in the league, but they also have decent depth at wide receiver, with 2018 6th round pick Russell Gage stepping up as the Falcons’ #3 receiver in his third season in the league in 2020. Gage had averaged 1.24 yards per route run in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, but saw that increase to 1.52 yards per route run in close to an every down role last season, with Jones injured or limited for much of the seasons, leading to Gage finishing the season with a 72/786/4 slash line. 

With Pitts coming in and Jones likely to give the Falcons more than he did last season, Gage will probably see his playing time and targets drop, but he’s still a capable #3 receiver. The Falcons also have hybrid player Cordarelle Patterson, who was mentioned in the running back section. This is obviously a talented receiving corps, but it doesn’t mask the Falcons’ concerns at running back and on the offensive line enough for this offense to be significantly improved over their 16th ranked finish in first down rate over expected in 2020.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Falcons also had numerous defensive needs they did not adequately address this off-season, most notably the edge defender position. The Falcons have seemingly needed pass rush help forever, somehow not topping 39 sacks in a season since 2004 and totaling a well below average 29 sacks last season. It’s even worse than that looks for their edge defenders, as their team leader in sacks with 4.5 was blitzing linebacker Deion Jones, followed by defensive tackle Grady Jarrett with 4, while no edge defender had more than 3 sacks.

It’s not as if the Falcons have not tried to address the position over the years, making numerous big investments. They used first round picks on edge defenders in 2015 and 2017, taking Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley, but both proved to be busts and are no longer with the team, Beasley not being retained as a free agent last off-season and McKinley being cut in the middle of last season after a disappointing 85 snaps in his first 4 games. 

The Falcons also handed out a big contract to free agent Dante Fowler last off-season, signing the former Jaguar and Ram to a deal worth 45 million over 3 years, but he too proved to be a bust in his first season in Atlanta, managing just 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate and ranking 118th among 125 eligible edge defenders on PFF on 601 snaps. Fowler’s contract guaranteed him 6 million of his 2021 salary, so the Falcons didn’t have a choice but to bring him back and hope he bounces back, but his contract was an overpay even before last year’s terrible season, as he’s never finished higher than 33rd among edge defenders on PFF in 6 seasons in the league. 

Fowler had 11.5 sacks in 2019 with the Rams, which is why the Falcons paid him like they did, but that was a misleading total, as he had just 6 other hits, though he did have a 13.1% pressure rate. That sack total is also out of line with his career numbers, as he’s never topped 8 sacks in another season and, in total, has just 30.5 sacks, 28 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 77 career games. Fowler might not be quite as bad as he was last season, but I wouldn’t expect more than middling play from him and he shouldn’t approach his 2019 sack total.

This off-season, the Falcons didn’t have the opportunity to make a big investment on the position, without financial flexibility in free agency and with other needs to address in the draft. As a result, 5th round rookie Ta’Quon Graham and veteran journeyman Barkevious Mingo, who is in his age 31 season and who has played just 464 snaps on defense over the past two seasons combined, were their only off-season additions at the position. As a result of that, the Falcons will likely rely on Steven Means as the starter opposite Fowler once again.

A 5th round pick in 2013, Means was primarily a special teamer in his first 7 seasons in the league, playing 333 snaps total on defense over that stretch, but, purely out of desperation, the Falcons played him on 645 snaps last season, almost doubling his previous career total. Means predictably struggled, finishing 92nd out of 125 eligible edge defenders on PFF and totaling 3 sacks, 2 hits, and a very underwhelming 6.2% pressure rate. Now going into his age 32 season, I don’t expect a sudden late career breakout, but he could see a similar snap count, again purely out of desperation.

Along with Mingo and Graham, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner also figures to be in the mix for a reserve role, after playing 376 snaps in one last season, but he finished just 113th out of 125 eligible edge defenders on those snaps, so he too is an underwhelming option, especially since he is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had played just 187 career snaps prior to last season. This should remain one of the worst edge defender groups in the league again this season, which will severely limit this defense.

Grade: C

Interior Defenders

The Falcons are better on the interior, but largely by default and primarily because of Grady Jarrett, who was their best defensive player overall last season and could do so again in 2021. Jarrett’s 4 sacks don’t jump off the page, but he added 18 hits and a 10.0% pressure rate, while dominating against the run, leading to him earning PFF’s 15th ranked grade among interior defenders. That’s nothing new for the 2015 5th round pick either, as he has totaled 21.5 sacks, 48 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate over the past 4 seasons combined, while finishing in the top-16 among interior defenders on PFF in all 4 seasons. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, with just 3 games missed in 6 seasons in the league, I see no reason to expect anything different from Jarrett in 2021, barring a fluke injury.

The rest of this group left something to be desired last season, but there are some intriguing options in this group. A 4th round pick in 2019, John Cominsky only had 1 sack last season, but he added 2 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in a limited role, playing 399 snaps overall. He also flashed on 100 snaps as a rookie and has earned a larger role in his third season in the league, particularly in passing situations. Second year player Marlon Davidson also figures to see a larger role in 2021, after being limited to 132 snaps in 8 games in an injury plagued rookie year. Davidson didn’t show much in that limited action, but he was a 2nd round pick and could easily be significantly improved in year two, especially if he can stay relatively healthy.

The Falcons also have veteran Tyeler Davison, who played 519 snaps last season, but struggled across those snaps, finishing 87th out of 138 eligible interior defenders on PFF. He’s never been much of a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 4.7% pressure rate in 93 games in 6 seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round by the Saints in 2015, but he had typically been a solid run stuffer before last season. 

Davison is not over the hill, only in his age 29 season, but it’s still possible his best days are behind him and he’s never been more than a situational player who has topped out at 588 snaps in a season. Still, he could be better in 2021 than 2020, especially if he plays a more limited role and is able to stay fresher. I would expect this position group to be better this season than last season and Jarrett is one of the best players in the league at this position, but there are still question marks here.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Falcons’ linebackers were their best group on defense last season and, while that’s not saying much, they were a solid unit overall and should remain one in 2021. Deion Jones leads the way as an every down player, playing 895 snaps last season and finishing 16th among off ball linebackers on PFF, his 4th straight season in the top-17 at his position. Jones is above average both in coverage and against the run and, still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect anything different from him in 2021.

Foyesade Oluokun is their second linebacker and he plays close to every down as an outside linebacker, seeing 895 snaps in 15 games. A 6th round pick in 2018, last season was by far the most single season action of his career, but he flashed potential across 835 combined snaps in his first two seasons before earning a middling grade last season, so it’s not as if his solid season came out of nowhere. Now entering the final year of his rookie deal, I would expect more of the same from Oluokun in 2021.

The Falcons run a significant amount of sub packages, so they don’t use a third linebacker all that often, but 2020 4th round pick Mykal Walker excelled in that role in limited action last season, flashing a ton of potential on 387 snaps, actually earning PFF’s 9th highest off ball linebacker grade in his limited action. He’ll likely remain in that same limited role in his second season in the league in 2021, but the long-term plan may be for him to replace Oluokun as an every down player, with Oloukun set to hit free agency next off-season and, in the short-term, he could easily remain an above average option as a third linebacker for the occasions when the Falcons need to line up in base packages, even if he isn’t quite as good on a per snap basis he was in 2021. This is a solid group overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

After selecting Kyle Pitts with the 4th selection, the Falcons used their next draft pick, 40th overall in the early second round, on a safety, addressing one of their many defensive needs by taking UCF’s Richie Grant. Grant is expected to have a chance to start immediately for a defense that no longer has its top-4 safeties from last season in terms of snaps played, including long-term starters Keanu Neal and Ricardo Neal. The Falcons didn’t get great play from their safeties last season, but they had to completely retool the position this off-season.

The Falcons did a good job of that all things considered. Grant may show growing pains as a rookie, but was a solid value with the 40th overall pick and projects as an above average starter long-term. Grant is also expected to start next to veteran safety Duron Harmon, who the Falcons signed for just over the minimum this off-season. Harmon was never higher on the depth chart than the third safety in his first 7 seasons in the league with New England from 2013-2019, but he still saw plenty of action, averaging 621 snaps per season in his final 5 seasons with the team and generally holding up well, before getting his first actual starting job with the Lions last season, with whom he made 16 starts and earned a middling grade from PFF for his efforts. 

Harmon doesn’t come with a high upside and his best days could be behind him, now heading into his age 30 season, but he could easily have another capable season as a starter and prove to be a good value as a cheap free agent signing. The Raiders also signed another veteran Erik Harris, to a cheap deal in free agency, and he has decent experience as well, with 30 starts over the past 3 seasons, but he’s generally been a level below Harmon and finished last season 72nd out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF. The Falcons also have 2020 4th round pick Jaylinn Hawkins, who saw just 76 snaps as a rookie, but could be in the mix for a role in his second season in the league in 2021.

At cornerback, however, the Falcons did not do a good job of addressing their need. The Falcons have used premium draft picks on cornerbacks in recent drafts, taking Isaiah Oliver in the 2nd round in 2018 and AJ Terrell in the 1st round in 2020, but both have been inconsistent and have yet to live up to their draft range. Last season, the Falcons highest rated cornerback was actually veteran slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard, but he was unspectacular and played just 439 snaps in 8 games due to injury, before being allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season.

With Dennard gone, I expected the Falcons to use a premium pick on a replacement, but instead couldn’t address the position until taking Darren Hall and Avery Williams in the 4th and 5th rounds respectively. With both players unlikely to be a factor as a rookie, Terrell and Oliver look likely to remain as the starters, with 2019 4th round pick Kendall Sheffield taking over as the 3rd cornerback. Terrell has the most upside of the bunch, as he was a first round pick just a year ago and was decent as a rookie. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward and become an above average starter as the Falcons’ de facto #1 cornerback.

Oliver and Sheffield are less inspiring. Oliver flashed on 241 snaps as a rookie, but since becoming a starter over the past two seasons, he has finished 95th among 135 eligible cornerbacks on PFF in 2019 and 76th among 136 eligible in 2020. Sheffield, meanwhile, has been even worse, finishing 124th out of 135 eligible on 697 snaps in 2019 and 131st out of 136 eligible on 524 snaps. The Falcons have youth at the cornerback position, so they have some upside, but overall they’re in a tough situation at the position. Even though their safeties look decent, this secondary still figures to struggle to stop opposing passing games all season.

Grade: C+

Kicker/Punter

The Falcons are in good shape at both punter and kicker going into 2021, bringing back Sterling Hofrichter and Younghoe Koo. Koo is the better known of the two because he is the only kickoff specialist who can kick recoverable onside kicks at any sort of statistically above average rate and he’s also developed into an above average placekicker as well, making 48/52 extra points and 60/65 field goals over the past two seasons, including all nine attempts from 50+ yards. However, Horichter is a solid player as well, finishing 12th among punters on PFF in his first year in the league in 2020, after being selected by the Falcons in the 7th round. It’s possible he could be better in year two and this should remain a solid duo.

Grade: B+

Return Specialists

Brandon Powell was both the Falcons’ punt and kickoff return specialist last season. He did a decent job on punt returns, averaging 8.9 yards per and finishing above average on PFF across 17 returns, but he averaged just 20.1 yards per on 17 kickoff returns and was PFF’s worst ranked kickoff returner out of 51 eligible. Powell is no longer with the team and on kickoff returns will be replaced by one of the best kickoff returners in NFL history, Cordarelle Patterson, who has averaged a whopping 29.8 yards per return with 8 touchdowns on 239 career returns.

Patterson has only ever returned one punt, but the Falcons’ 5th round rookie cornerback Avery Williams was a prolific return man in college, averaging 11.6 yards per punt return with 6 scores on 82 attempts and 27.4 yards per kickoff return with 3 scores on 38 attempts. He figures to be the primary punt returner, while providing insurance behind Patterson. The Falcons figure to get good return play from both spots in 2021.

Grade: A

Special Teamers

The Falcons’ special teams were middling at best as a whole in 2020 and there is serious concern beyond their kicker, punter, and returners. The Falcons had nine players see at least 150 snaps as a special teamer in 2020. Three of them earned above average grades from PFF, but LaRoy Reynolds (266 snaps) and Edmond Robinson (182 snaps) are no longer with the team while Jacob Tuioti-Mariner (209 snaps) could be needed more on defense and see fewer special teams snaps as a result. Even if he doesn’t, last season was his first season on special teams, so he doesn’t have a proven track record.

Jaylinn Hawkins (150 snaps) and Mykal Walker (182 snaps) also had solid seasons on special teams in 2020, but they are candidates to see more playing time on defense and less time on special teams in 2021, in just their second seasons in the league. On top of that, Sherrod Neasman (296 snaps) and Luke Stocker (219 snaps), while not playing all that well last season, are no longer with the team and could be missed for experience purposes. Keith Smith (256 snaps) and Jaeden Graham (214 snaps) are likely to return to their same role, but both earned below average grades from PFF in 2020. Smith has at least been somewhat better in the past and is experienced with five seasons over 200 special teams snaps, but Graham also struggled across 300 snaps in his first career special teams action in 2019.

The Falcons added a couple reinforcements in free agency. Safety Erik Harris is also a candidate to play on defense, but he’s earned above average grades from PFF across 200+ special teams snaps in three of the past four seasons, including a career best finish in 2020 and would likely be their best regular special teamer if used in that capacity. Reserve cornerback Fabian Moreau will likely be a special teamer if he makes the team, but he’s been underwhelming at best across 590 special teams snaps in 4 seasons in the league. The Falcons are likely to be relying on several rookies for significant snaps in this group in 2021.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The good news is the Falcons should have better luck in close games and hold on to more leads this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them have fewer leads in the first place. With an aging roster, no financial flexibility this off-season, and significant draft capital being spent on a tight end to add to an already good passing game, the Falcons are likely to enter the season with several glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. 

This roster is not clearly better than last season and, while they’ll almost definitely have better luck in close games, they should have worse injury luck, after having the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, which would be a problem for an overall top heavy roster. The Falcons are unlikely to seriously compete for a playoff spot this season and it’s not hard to see how injuries to multiple of their key star players could land this team among the worst in the league. I will have a final prediction for the Falcons at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

Update: When I wrote this, I didn’t expect Julio Jones to get traded because the Falcons seemed to still be trying to compete in 2021, keeping an aging Matt Ryan and not adding a quarterback of the future behind him when they had the chance. Instead, the Falcons have sent Jones to the Titans for a trade centered around a 2022 2nd round pick. I don’t hate the compensation the Falcons got, but it’s a bit puzzling why a team otherwise trying to compete now would not trade Jones before the draft to ensure they could get a draft pick that could help their team as soon as possible.

Instead, a team with an aging quarterback just flipped his long-time #1 receiver for a draft pick they won’t even get to use for a year. If the Falcons had managed to get a first round pick out of waiting to trade Jones, then it would be somewhat understandable as the Falcons likely would not have gotten a 2021 first round pick for him, but I have a hard time believing the same teams interested in Jones would not have been interested in him at the same price of around a second round pick in this past year’s draft, which they could have used on a necessary addition at any one of their outstanding positions of need.

Making this move now is basically ensuring you’re going to waste one of Matt Ryan’s few remaining seasons. Jones will be replaced in three wide receiver sets by either Cordarrelle Patterson or one or two young former undrafted free agents, Christian Blake and Olamide Zaccheaus, who have just 24 catches and 23 catches respectively in their careers. Even if Jones was getting up there and age and a second round pick was reasonable compensation for him, there is no denying that is a significant downgrade.

8/8/21: The Falcons will get some benefit from their special teams, which is more predictive than I realized, but their defense also fared significantly worse in yards per play allowed than first down rate allowed and yards per play tends to be the more predictive of those two metrics.

9/4/21: The Falcons could have easily won more than 4 games last season and are starting from a higher base point than last season’s record suggests, but they also still have one of the worst defenses in the league, they lost Julio Jones, and, even if their receiving corps can be solid without him, they still have an aging quarterback and can underwhelming offensive line and running game. They seem likely to finish below .500 again. The Falcons would have been better off starting a rebuild in full this off-season if they were planning on trading Jones.

Prediction: 6-11 3rd in NFC South

Chicago Bears 2021 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Perhaps no team has had a long standing need at one position longer than the Bears have needed a legitimate franchise quarterback. The Bears haven’t had a quarterback elected to the Pro Bowl since Jim McMahon 1985, which also happens to be the last time this franchise won the Super Bowl, wasting numerous high level defensive seasons in the process. Just since 2004, the Bears have finished in the top-10 in first down rate allowed in 9 of 17 seasons and in total they rank 3rd in the league in first down rate allowed over that stretch, as opposed to their offense which has ranked 28th in first down rate.

The Bears thought they solved their quarterback need in 2017, when they selected Mitch Trubisky 2nd overall, moving up from the 3rd pick to secure him, following a 3-13 season the previous year. However, Trubisky’s four years in Chicago were less than inspiring. Trubisky led the Bears to 12 wins in 2018 and made the Pro-Bowl as an alternate in what looks like a misprint now, but Trubisky largely rode a dominant defense and an easy schedule and he was an obvious limiting factor for this team taking the next step in the post-season, struggling in a wild card home loss to the Eagles.

The Bears defense has continued to play well over the past two seasons, but hasn’t reached the heights of 2018’s dominant unit and has been held back by a struggling offense, en route to back-to-back 8-8 seasons. The Bears added veteran competition for Trubisky prior to 2020 in Nick Foles, but Foles was even worse than Trubisky in limited action last season. In total, Trubisky completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, while going 29-21 in 50 starts, despite being supported by a top-12 defense in all 4 seasons.

With Trubisky set to hit free agency with his 5th year option (which would have paid him a whopping 24.8 million) getting declined, the Bears decided to wipe the slate clean at the position and start over yet again. Nick Foles remains on the roster by virtue of a 4 million dollar guaranteed salary that would be tough to move in a trade, but the Bears added a pair of quarterbacks to the mix that both have better chances to start games in 2021.

Their first addition was veteran free agent Andy Dalton. A 2nd round pick of the Bengals in 2011, Dalton was a serviceable starter for 9 seasons with the Bengals, starting 133 games and completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 218 touchdowns, and 126 interceptions, but never played at a high enough level to elevate the team around him and only found success when surrounded with a lot of talent. His best seasons came in 2015 (PFF’s 7th ranked quarterback) and 2018 (PFF’s 13th ranked quarterback), but he was consistently a middling starting quarterback throughout his tenure in Cincinnati. After the Bengals bottomed out in 2019, they opted to replace the aging, expensive veteran Dalton with #1 overall pick Joe Burrow, leading to Dalton’s release when they were unable to find a trade partner for his salary.

Dalton had opportunities to compete for a starting job in several places last off-season, but opted to sign a true backup quarterback contract in Dallas, signing for just 3 million to hold the clipboard behind an established quarterback in Dak Prescott. It was a bit of an odd move from a football perspective, but Dalton is from Texas originally and the situation worked out for him, as Dak Prescott suffered a season ending ankle injury in week 5, leaving Dalton to make 9 starts and 11 appearances the rest of the way. 

Dalton had a weak offensive line in front of him with the Cowboys’ top-three offensive linemen all missing significant time with injury last season, but he was still able to get the ball to the Cowboys’ talented skill position players, finishing the season with a 64.9% completion percentage, 6.52 YPA, and 14 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Dalton’s track record of being a steady, but unspectacular hand intrigued the Bears in free agency, particularly with few other starting options available on the open market, and the Bears opted to not only sign him to a fully guaranteed 1-year, 10.5 million contract for his age 34 season in 2021, but also to immediately announce him as their starting quarterback on social media.

That may have been premature, however, as the Bears also had their eyes on finding a potential long-term franchise quarterback in the draft and, when a couple of the top quarterback prospects started to fall, the Bears, originally picking at 20 and seemingly out of range of a top quarterback prospect, traded away a future first round pick among other picks to swap picks with the Giants and select Ohio State’s Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick. Dalton may remain their starting quarterback for now, but it’s a matter of when not if Fields becomes the starter and if recent history is any indication, I would expect Fields to be out there sooner rather than later, possibly even as soon as week one. 

Fields might not quite have the upside of the three quarterbacks selected ahead of him (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance), but he’s an experienced starter who has played at a high level for several seasons in a major conference. Outside of #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, Fields seems like the cleanest and most NFL ready of the top-5 quarterback prospects from this draft class, so he could definitely win the starting job in training camp, even competing against an experienced veteran in Andy Dalton.

Overall, things are definitely looking up for the Bears, as Fields represents their most promising quarterback prospect in many years, but even a relatively pro ready quarterback like Fields is hardly a lock to come in and start playing at a high level from the word go. This is still a position of concern in the short-term, even if the long-term outlook looks a lot better than it did a year ago. The Bears will likely need to support whoever their quarterback is well on both sides of the ball if they’re going to be a contender this season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive issues weren’t just limited to the quarterback position last season, as they had issues in several places en route to finishing just 26th in first down rate over expected. The Bears were also limited in their ability to address various needs this off-season, as not only did they have next to no financial flexibility in free agency, but, after their trade up for Fields, they were left with only one other pick in the top-150 on draft day. They used that pick, 39th overall, on Oklahoma State offensive tackle Teven Jenkins, who is tentatively expected to start for the Bears week one.

It originally looked like Jenkins would start at right tackle, replacing Bobby Massie, their long-time starting right tackle, who was released this off-season ahead of 8.1 million non-guaranteed owed to him in 2021, but, after the draft, the Bears opted to release left tackle Charles Leno, ahead of the 9 million non-guaranteed he was owed this season, meaning the second round rookie will likely be the week one starter in a key spot on the blindside. Leno and Massie had been the Bears’ starting tackles for several seasons, making 94 starts in 7 seasons with the team and 64 starts in 5 seasons with the team respectively, and they had generally been above average, but the Bears’ cap situation forced their hand with both of them.

Massie’s release was not surprising, as he missed 8 games with injury last season and was heading into his age 32 season, but Leno made all 16 starts at left tackle last season, as he had for 5 straight seasons, and he earned his fourth above average grade from PFF in those 5 seasons, so it was surprising to see him be released as well, even after the selection of Jenkins. If the Bears needed to free up additional cap space, they could have done so by releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and his 7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, which for some reason remains on the books.

With Jenkins likely starting at left tackle, that will leave Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson as their options at right tackle, with whoever does not start at right tackle likely to then start at right guard. Ifedi made the final 6 starts of last season at right tackle, after starting the first 10 games of the season at right guard, moving over after Massie’s season ending injury. He wasn’t bad and was brought back on a 1-year, 4.25 million dollar deal in free agency, but he was only a middling starter and, prior to last season, was a complete bust of a 2016 first round pick with Seattle.

Ifedi saw plenty of playing time in his 4 seasons with the Seahawks, making 60 starts, but he consistently struggled, receiving a below average grade from PFF in all 4 seasons. It’s possible the former high draft pick has turned a corner as a player and will remain a capable starter, but it’s worth remembering he was considered a reach by most when he was drafted and even if he has turned a corner, there is no guarantee he continues getting better. Wilkinson, meanwhile, signed this off-season from the Broncos, where he made 26 starts in 4 seasons after going undrafted in 2017, with 19 of those starts coming at right tackle and 7 coming at right guard. However, he’s been pretty mediocre throughout those starts. 

Before the Bears cut Leno, it seemed like Wilkinson would likely be the 6th offensive lineman, which he is well qualified for because of his versatility, but without Leno, Wilkinson seems likely to be forced into the starting lineup as a season long starter, which not only likely creates a weak spot upfront for the Bears, but also leaves them with minimal depth, with top remaining reserves Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars both struggling mightily in 553 snaps and 617 snaps respectively last season. Wilkinson has been slightly better at guard than tackle in his career, but it’s unclear where the Bears are planning on playing him.

When the Bears’ offense was at its best in 2018, their offensive line was a big part of the reason why, but they’re down to just a pair of starters from that group in left guard James Daniels and center Cody Whitehair. Whitehair is a versatile player who has seen starts at left guard (15), right guard (3), and center (60) in 5 seasons since the Bears drafted him in the 2nd round in 2016 and he’s generally been an above average starter, earning an above average grade from PFF in 4 of 5 seasons in the league. Now in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2021. He’ll start the year at center, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him move to either guard spot for one reason or another.

Daniels, meanwhile, was just a 2nd round rookie in 2018 and held his own in 10 starts, before taking a leap forward in 16 starts his 2nd season in 2019, when he finished 19th among guards on PFF, especially playing well down the stretch, seeming to imply more promise to come. Unfortunately, Daniels’ third season in the league got off to an underwhelming start before he missed the final 11 games with injury, but he has a good chance to bounce back in 2021 if he can stay healthy. Like Whitehair, he has some history at center and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him see action there at some point this year, on an offensive line that could use several different combinations throughout the season, trying to find one that works.

Health will be key in general for this offensive line because their depth is very suspect. Having Daniels back should help this unit, but the Bears didn’t have an unusual amount of lost games to injury last season and injuries are part of the game, so the Bears can’t expect to have better health overall this season. If everyone can stay healthy, this could be a serviceable group, but it’s not hard to see how they could end up as one of the worst offensive lines in the league if a couple things go wrong.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

While the Bears didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season, they made sure to keep their top free agent, #1 wide receiver Allen Robinson, even if they had to guarantee him 17.88 million in a shrunken cap season (about 9.8% of the cap if he remains on the roster at his current number). A 7-year veteran, Robinson’s stats haven’t always jumped off the page, but he’s finished in the top-15 among wide receivers on PFF in 3 of his last 5 seasons and his per 16 game slash line of 84/1118/8 over the past 6 seasons is impressive for a player who has never had anything better than middling quarterback play. 

If Fields can get in the lineup early and impress as a rookie, Robinson could easily be the best quarterback he has ever had throwing him the football, which could also have the benefit of convincing Robinson, previously hesitant to sign a long-term deal, to stick around for the long haul. Only going into his age 28 season with a relatively limited injury history (all 16 games played in 4 of the past 6 seasons), Robinson should remain a #1 receiver for several more seasons. Robinson has benefitted from having at least 150 passes thrown his direction in 4 of 7 seasons in the league, but he’s also seen frequent double teams and his 7.64 yards per target average in his career is well above the average of the quarterbacks he’s played with.

Robinson should continue seeing a lot of targets and double teams this season because the Bears didn’t have the opportunity to upgrade their receiving corps and only added a 6th round pick (Dazz Newsome) on draft day. Instead, the Bears will be hoping to get more from some of the wide receivers they’ve drafted in recent years. Darnell Mooney, a 2020 5th round pick from Tulane, would seem to have the most potential of the bunch. Mooney did not look like a 5th round pick as a rookie, playing more than half of the snaps in every game except week one and earning a slightly above average grade from PFF, while finishing 2nd on the team in receptions (61), yards (631), targets (98), and third in touchdowns (4). 

The fact that the league let him fall to the 5th round may be indicative of a lower ceiling for Mooney than most rookies who produce like he did and his lack of explosive plays is a bit concerning, but he should continue playing a big role in this offense as a possession receiver and the de facto #2 wideout, even if only for lack of a better option. That could easily translate to improved counting stats for him in his second season in the league if he can get more consistent quarterback play.

Anthony Miller, a second round pick in 2018, was the highest drafted of the bunch, but that hasn’t translated to more than mediocre play, averaging just 1.18 yards per route run and 33.2 yards per game in his short career. He looks to be the #3 receiver by default and he could take a step forward in his 4th season in the league and put together a decent statistical season with more consistent play under center, but he could just as easily fall down the depth chart, as the Bears seem less than satisfied with him and reportedly explored the trade market for him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal.

Other options at wide receiver for the Bears include 2019 4th round pick Riley Ridley and 2018 7th round pick Javon Wims, but neither have done much in their limited careers thus far. Wims has operated as the 4th receiver the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.57 yards per route run over that time and has graded among PFF’s worst wide receivers, while Ridley hasn’t even been able to overtake Wims on the depth chart, with just 149 snaps played in 2 seasons in the league. 

Free agent addition Marquise Goodwin is a veteran option, but the 31-year-old journeyman has topped 30 catches just once in 8 seasons in the league and would only be a situational deep threat if he made the roster. The Bears also added fellow veteran wide receiver Damiere Byrd in free agency, but he’s not much more promising, as his 47/604/1 slash line when forced into action for a New England team with the thinnest receiving corps in the league last season more than doubled his career totals, as he was nothing more than a depth receiver in his first 4 seasons in the league. Byrd underwhelmed in his first extended action and has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, which is very underwhelming as well.

With question marks at wide receiver, the Bears figure to continue targeting their tight ends frequently in the passing game, something they did on 135 pass attempts (22.0%) last season. Veteran Jimmy Graham (76 targets) and rookie Cole Kmet (44 targets) were the top-2 at the position in targets, which they should remain in 2021, but those target numbers could easily be closer or even flipped. Graham was once one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and, never a good run blocker, he has seen his receiving production dwindle to 32.1 yards per game and 6.84 yards per target over the past 3 seasons. 

The 8 touchdowns Graham scored last season and his 6-7 frame would suggest that he could still be an effective red zone and short yardage target, but the fact that he had 3 or fewer touchdowns in 3 of his previous 5 seasons prior to last season, despite playing with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, suggests that he’s far from a lock to remain a red zone threat and his touchdown total will almost definitely fall, even if just from Kmet getting more involved. 

Kmet didn’t show much as a rookie, but the 2nd round pick was one of the best tight ends in his draft class and second seasons are almost always better than the first for talented tight ends like him. There is also a possibility the Bears release Graham and his non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary, which stands out like a sore thumb among ways the Bears could free up cap space. Either way, Kmet figures to see more targets this season, in a receiving corps that has a lot of question marks overall. 

Grade: B-

Running Backs

One target the Bears will get back is pass catching running back Tarik Cohen, who caught 203 passes from 2017-2019, including 150 in 2018 and 2019 combined, but then was limited to just 6 in 3 games before tearing his ACL last season. Cohen is expected to be back for week one of 2021, but he comes with a lot of uncertainty and not just because of his injury situation, but also because he’s been pretty inconsistent in his 4-year career. 

While Cohen had a dominant 2018 season as a receiver, averaging 7.97 yards per target and posting a 71/725/5 slash line, his yards per target has been a miniscule 4.97 in his other 3 seasons. On top of that, he hasn’t been that efficient as a runner either, averaging 4.17 yards per carry on an average of 5.18 carries per game. The 3-year, 17.25 million dollar extension the Bears gave Cohen before his ACL tear last year obviously suggests they view him as having a role long-term, but that may have changed with Montgomery breaking out last season and it doesn’t guarantee Cohen will fare well in that role if he continues seeing significant action.

In fact, it’s possible Cohen’s return could hurt this offense if he takes too many snaps away from David Montgomery, a 2019 3rd round pick who broke out as a three down running back in Cohen’s absence last season. Montgomery couldn’t get much going as a rookie, averaging 3.67 yards per carry on 242 carries, but that was in part because of lack of talent around him and his 2.33 yards per carry after contact suggested that Montgomery ran better than his overall YPC suggested. 

That was again the case in 2020, when Montgomery rushed for 1,070 yards and 8 touchdowns on 247 carries (4.37 YPC) with 3.15 yards per carry after contact and finished as PFF’s 9th ranked running back overall. Perhaps his biggest improvement from year one to year two was as a receiver, where he went from 25 catches and 5.28 yards per target to 54 catches and 6.44 yards per target. Cohen should still spell Montgomery on some passing downs, even if only because it’s the best time to get Montgomery some rest, but Montgomery should otherwise be a three down back.

Another threat to Montgomery’s workload is free agent acquisition Damien Williams. Williams was decent as a rotational back with the Chiefs in 2019, rushing for 4.49 yards per carry on 111 carries, but that was in large part due to the talent around him in Kansas City and, prior to joining the Chiefs in 2019, the veteran journeyman had averaged just 3.59 yards per carry. On top of that, Williams opted out of the 2020 season, adding even more uncertainty to his projection.

The Bears will almost definitely be hurting this offense by giving Williams more than a few touches per game, or by giving Cohen more than a few carries per game. Montgomery is clearly the second best offensive player on this team and should be used as close to a three down back as possible, without tiring him out. Even if they get better quarterback play this season, this offense has a long way to go before being a consistently effective unit and if they don’t use their best running back effectively, it will only make things worse.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

With the Bears still having question marks on offense, they will need their defense to continue playing at a high level if they’re going to be a real threat to make and be competitive in the post-season. However, there are reasons to suspect that they won’t be as good defensively next season. For one, defensive play on average tends to be significantly less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive play, meaning a team that ranks highly on offense is more likely to repeat that performance the following season than a team that ranks highly on defense. 

The main reason for this is, while an offense can be elevated by a quarterback playing at a high level and franchise quarterbacks tend not to change teams often, a defense typically needs 7-9 starters all playing at a high level to be an elite defense and it’s much tougher to have that every year than it is to have a consistent high level quarterback because, inevitably, key players on defense either regress or they leave in free agency or are unable to be retained for financial reasons.

That shows with the Bears, who have lost 3 of their top-4 players and 6 of their top-13 players in terms of snaps played from their dominant 2018 defense, and, despite that, the Bears still have among the least remaining cap space in the league as of this writing. We saw the Bears take a step back from the 1st ranked defense in first down rate allowed in 2018 to 8th and 9th ranked in 2019 and 2020 and this season I would expect them to take another step back as they have continued to shed talent on defense.

The strength of this defense is their front, which has largely retained it’s key players from 2018. In fact, they could be even better this season than 2020, with the return of defensive tackle Eddie Goldman from opt-out. The Bears lost some reserves at the interior defender spot this off-season, with Brent Urban (370 snaps), John Jenkins (223 snaps), and Roy Robertson-Harris (245 snaps) no longer with the team, but Goldman has a higher upside than any of those three. 

In 5 seasons prior to last year’s opt out, the 2015 2nd round pick had earned an above average grade from PFF in each seasons, including a career best 14th ranked finished among interior defenders in 2018, which is an outlier in his career, but also shows the peak for a player who is still only in his age 27 season. The 6-4 320 pounder is obviously a good run stuffer, but he’s not a bad pass rusher either, with 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 67 career games. Durability and conditioning are the concerns for him, especially after a year off, as he’s never played more than 608 snaps in a season, but he’ll be a welcome re-addition to a Bears team  that lacks to rotate players at his position anyway. He’ll primarily play on the nose in base packages, but has the pass rush ability to stay on the field in sub packages as well.

Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols led the Bears’ 3-man defensive line in snaps played last season with 795 and 618 and both figure to have significant roles again, even with Goldman returning. Hicks has been the lone every down player on this unit over the years, joining the Bears in 2016 as a free agent after being primarily a rotational player prior, and immediately developing into an above average every down player who has averaged 52.9 snaps per game in 68 games (all starts) in 5 seasons with the Bears.

However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that snap count scaled back noticeably, as Hicks is now going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he received his lowest grade from PFF since before breaking out with the Bears, back in 2014. He still earned about an average grade, but it was a steep drop off for a player who had finished in the top-36 among interior defenders on PFF in 4 straight seasons, including a dominant 2018 campaign in which he finished 4th at his position. He isn’t totally over the hill yet and he could bounce back a little bit from last year’s down year, especially if kept fresher by limiting his snap count, but he’s still a declining player whose best days are almost definitely behind him.

Nichols, meanwhile, actually ranked higher than Hicks last season, finishing as PFF’s 27th ranked interior defender on 618 snaps, holding up against the run, while adding 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate. A 5th round pick in 2018, Nichols saw some action in the first 2 seasons of his career, but averaged just 387 snaps per season over the two seasons and was highly inconsistent. His improvement in his third season may be him permanently turning a corner, but he’s a bit of a one-year wonder and is not necessarily a guarantee to repeat last season’s play. He figures to start in base packages at 3-4 defensive end with Goldman on the nose and Hicks opposite him and all three figure to see significant sub package action as well.

Reserve Mario Edwards was also retained this off-season and, on a per snap basis, he was as good as anyone on this defense last year, albeit on just 256 snaps in 15 games. Edwards was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2015 and showed a lot of promise in his first season in the league, finishing 35th among interior defenders on PFF on 598 snaps, but then he missed almost all of his second season in 2016 with injury and his career got derailed. 

Edwards was not the same on 475 snaps upon his return in 2017, which caused the Raiders to cut him ahead of the 2018 season, starting Edwards on a journey bouncing around the league, seeing action with the Giants, Saints, and Bears over the past 3 seasons, but not playing more than 293 snaps in a season with any of them. Edwards didn’t make much of an impact with the Giants or Saints, but really impressed in limited action with the Bears. 

Despite his limited playing time, he ended up with 4 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while also playing the run at a high level, and he seemed to earn more playing time as the season went on for his efforts, with 152 of his 256 snaps coming in the second half of the season. Edwards is suspended for the first two games of the 2021 season, but could see a further expanded role upon his return, after being locked up by the Bears on a 3-year, 11.55 million dollar deal this off-season, even after the announcement of his suspension. Edwards is far from a guarantee to be as efficient as he was last season, but he could easily remain an effective reserve in a larger role.

The Bears also brought in veteran reserve Angelo Blackson this off-season to give them some additional depth, but he’s struggled throughout his 6-year career, since being drafted by the Titans in the 4th round in 2015. Over those 6 seasons, he’s also played for the Texans and most recently the Cardinals in 2020, with whom he set a new career high in snaps with 550. However, he struggled mightily, finishing 126th out of 138 eligible interior defenders, a year after finishing 120th out of 121 eligible on 427 snaps in 2019 with the Texans. He should not be considered a roster lock and, even if he makes the roster, he should get more than a very limited rotational role. In a deep position group, he won’t be expected to play much, but there is still concern with long-time top interior defender Akiem Hicks seemingly on the decline.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Bears defense hasn’t been quite as good over the past two seasons as they were in their dominant 2018 campaign, but one player who hasn’t fallen off is Khalil Mack, who has remained perennially one of the top defensive players in the league. Mack’s acquisition from the Raiders before that 2018 campaign is a big part of what led to the Bears having that dominant defensive season. The price has been steep, as they gave up their first round pick in back-to-back years and have already paid him 73.7 million over 3 years as part of a contract extension that is set to pay him 154.846 million over 7 years, which is a factor in the Bears’ cap issues and their lack of blue chip young talent, but Mack has arguably been worth it. 

Mack hasn’t really gotten the Defensive Player of the Year attention that he got in 2018 over the past couple seasons with the Bears’ defense no longer as dominant, but that’s not his fault, as he finished last season as PFF’s #1 ranked edge defender, continuing a streak of seven consecutive seasons in the top-13 among edge defenders on PFF to begin his career, since being selected 5th overall by the Raiders in 2014. He also already had a Defensive Player of the Year award to his name, winning in 2016 with the Raiders. Even as good as most fans know he is, he might be underrated.

His sack numbers don’t always jump off the page, but he’s arguably the best run stopping edge defender in the league and he has added 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure in his career as well, despite being one of the most double teamed players in the league and dropping into coverage on about 10% of his pass defense snaps, another aspect of the game where he impresses. His age is starting to become a concern in his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of declining, he’s been incredibly durable in his career, missing just 2 games in 7 seasons and averaging 58.7 snaps per game, and even if he does decline a little, he likely would still remain one of the top players in the league at his position.

On the other side, however, Robert Quinn was a massive disappointment in his first season in Chicago, after signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar contract last off-season that guaranteed him 30 million in total, including his entire 11.6 million dollar salary for 2021. Quinn has typically struggled against the run in his career, but, prior to last season, he had always been a consistently good pass rusher, totaling 64 sacks, 67 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 94 games over the previous 7 seasons from 2013-2019. The idea was simple: plug him in opposite the frequently double teamed Khalil Mack and either the defense would have to pull some of the double teams off of Mack or face a consistently good pass rusher one-on-one regularly. 

However, it didn’t work that way at all, as Mack continued to be one of the most double teamed players in the league and Quinn could not make the most of frequent single blocking, managing just 2 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate, while taking up a significant chunk of the cap for one of the most cap strapped teams in the league. Combined with his struggles against the run, Quinn finished the season as PFF’s 85th ranked edge defender out of 125 eligible on 548 snaps. He could bounce back in 2021, but he’s also going into his age 31 season, so it’s very likely his best days are behind him and he could easily continue struggling. With his salary locked in, the Bears will have no choice but to hope he can bounce back.

Mack rarely comes off the field, so depth isn’t that important, but the Bears signed veteran journeyman Jeremiah Attaochu to replace fellow veteran journeyman Barkevious Mingo, who played 391 snaps as their top reserve last season. Attaochu should be a minor upgrade in a similar role, as Mingo was underwhelming, while Attaochu has consistently been a good reserve throughout his career. He’s only averaged 285 snaps per season in 7 seasons in the league since the Chargers drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014, in part due to injuries, but he’s been a capable run defender and has added 20.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 74 career games, despite his limited action. He should be able to continue that into 2021 in a similar role.

The Bears also brought back James Vaughters and Trevis Gipson, who played 243 snaps and 47 snaps respectively in the first significant action of both of their careers, but both of them figure to be non-factors if they can even make the final roster. Gipson, a 5th round pick in 2020, has more upside between the two, but he’s still highly unproven, while Vaughters went undrafted went back in 2015 and had played just 26 career defensive snaps before getting a chance at minor action last season. The Bears will need Khalil Mack to continue playing well and staying healthy to elevate an otherwise underwhelming group, but Mack is about as close to a sure thing as any defensive player in the league outside of Aaron Donald.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith remain from their dominant 2018 defense, but their careers have gone in different directions since then. Trevathan was PFF’s 23rd ranked off ball linebacker in 2018, as part of a stretch of seven straight seasons as a starter where he earned an average or better grade from PFF, but he fell all the way to 84th out of 99 eligible off ball linebackers in 2020 and now heads into his age 31 season. It’s also worth noting he has a significant injury history as well, missing 32 games over the past 7 seasons, and he seems to be especially slowed after his most recent injury which limited him to just 9 games in 2019. He’s another contract the Bears may be regretting, re-signing him on a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal last off-season that will guarantee him 7.125 million in 2021.

Meanwhile, Smith has developed into one of the better middle linebackers in the league, after earning a middling grade from PFF as a rookie in 2018. The former 8th overall pick also earned a middling grade in 2019, but he broke out in his third season in the league in 2020, finishing 20th among off ball linebackers on PFF. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he entered the league with a ton of upside and, still only going into his age 24 season, could even get better going forward and develop into one of the top off ball linebackers in the league. That’s far from a guarantee, but he has a huge ceiling.

The Bears will need a good season from Smith, not just because Trevathan is declining, but also because they completely lack depth at the position as well. They used to have good depth, but lost Nick Kwaitkowski and Kevin Pierre-Louis last off-season and didn’t replace either of them, leaving inexperienced 2018 4th round pick Joel Iyiegbuniwe as their top reserve. Both Smith and Trevathan played all 16 games and hardly ever came off the field last season, so it wasn’t really an issue, but that good injury luck could easily not remain in 2021 and Iyiegbuniwe is basically just as inexperienced as he was going into last season, having played just 51 snaps on defense in 3 seasons in the league. The Bears also signed veteran journeyman Christian Jones this off-season, but he’s earned a below average grade from PFF in 4 of the past 5 seasons and is now going into his age 30 season. Roquan Smith elevates an otherwise underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The unit on this defense that has lost by far the most since their dominant 2018 season is their secondary, which was arguably the best unit on that defense. Their top three cornerbacks Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukmara, and slot man Bryce Callahan finished 8th, 13th, and 11th respectively among cornerbacks on PFF, while starting safeties Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos ranked 1st and 10th respectively. The decline began when Callahan and Amos signed contracts with the Broncos and Packers respectively after their big 2018 seasons and were replaced by significantly inferior players in Buster Skrine and Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix.

Clinton-Dix was solid in 2019, but Skrine struggled mightily and Clinton-Dix also left as a free agent following 2019, as he had only been signed to a one-year deal. The Bears replaced him with fellow veteran Tashaun Gipson, who wasn’t a significant downgrade, but the exodus continued with cornerback Prince Amukamara becoming a cap casualty after having a significantly worse season in 2019 compared to 2018. 

Fuller and Jackson also saw their play fall off after 2018, with Fuller finishing 71st and 55th among cornerbacks on PFF in the two seasons and Jackson finishing 49th and 67th among safeties. Jackson still remains a part of this defense, but Fuller’s decline and large salary led to him becoming the next member of this secondary to leave town, as he was released this off-season ahead of a non-guaranteed 14 million dollar salary for 2021, replaced by the far cheaper, but far less reliable Desmond Trufant.

Trufant will start outside at cornerback opposite 2020 2nd round pick Jaylon Johnson, who was originally drafted to replace Amukamara. Johnson had an up and down rookie season, getting off to a hot start and compiling 13 pass deflections on the season (4th in the NFL), but he also didn’t have an interception and had a propensity to give up big plays, leading to him finishing the season below average on PFF, 91st among 136 eligible cornerbacks. Johnson could easily take a step forward in 2021, but that’s not a given.

Trufant, meanwhile, is coming off of an even worse season, finishing 133rd among 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF across 324 snaps in an injury plagued season. Trufant was one of the better cornerbacks in the league in his prime and had earned an above average grade from PFF in each of his first 7 seasons in the league before the last season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also going into age 30 season and has a growing injury history, including missing 17 of 32 games over the past two seasons. He wasn’t a terrible flyer on a relatively cheap 1-year, 1.075 million dollar deal, but the Bears will be relying on him as a sure starter and he can be relied on in that capacity.

The Bears also lost Buster Skrine this off-season and, though he struggled throughout his two seasons as the replacement for Bryce Callahan on the slot, the Bears didn’t replace him and instead will be counting on some long shots to step up. Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley are recent draft picks, going in the 5th round in 2020 and the 6th round in 2019 respectively, but they weren’t high draft picks and both struggled in the first significant action of either of their careers last season, while playing just 136 snaps and 209 snaps respectively. Both have some theoretical upside, but it’s hard to rely on either in a significant capacity.

The Bears will get Artie Burns back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2020, but he’s hard to rely on as well, as he was nothing more than a flyer when the Bears signed him last off-season and that was before his injury. Burns was a first round pick of the Steelers back in 2016 and was a solid starter in his first two seasons in the league, but injuries, ineffectiveness, and issues with the coaching staff led to him playing just 375 snaps in 2018 and 2019 combined and the Steelers letting him walk as a free agent last off-season. Still only going into his age 26 season, Burns may still have upside, but he’s going to be four years removed from his last season as a starter in 2017 and he’s spent a lot more time sidelined with injury than actually playing since then. The Bears will need one of their long shot cornerbacks to step up for this to even be a serviceable group.

At safety, Eddie Jackson remains from this 2018 defense, but, as I mentioned, he saw his play drop off pretty significantly over the past two seasons, earning middling grades in 2019 and 2020 after a dominant 2018. A 4th round pick in 2017, Jackson’s 2018 campaign stands out as an obvious outlier when you look at his career, as he’s been about a middling starter in his other three campaigns, so, while he could be an above average starter in 2021, it’s hard to expect him to resemble his 2018 form.

Fellow starting safety Tashaun Gipson is an even less impressive option. Gipson is plenty experienced, with 120 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, including all 16 for the Bears last season, but he’s only a middling starter and his age is becoming a concern, with him heading into his age 31 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline this season, in which case he would likely be a liability on the backend. This is a very underwhelming secondary overall, especially in comparison to their dominant unit from just a few years ago.

Grade: C+

Kicker/Punter

The Bears had above average special teams in 2020, ranking 8th in special teams DVOA. One of their biggest strengths was place kicking, with kicker Cairo Santos earning PFF’s 3rd highest grade and making 36/37 extra points and 30/32 field goals. However, there is a lot of reason to suspect he won’t be able to match that in 2021. Not only does he have just a 80.6% field goal percentage aside from last season, but he played for five different teams in three seasons prior to 2020, including a 2019 season with the Titans where he made just 4 of 9 field goals. He’s also been underwhelming as a kickoff specialist across his career.

The Bears clearly believe he’s turned a corner as a place kicker permanently, locking him up with a 3-year, 9 million dollar contract that guarantees him 4.575 million, despite his history, but it’s still highly unlikely Santos will be as good again in 2021. He could still remain a solid kicker and is not necessarily going to regress to his 2018-2019 level of play, but this is an obvious area where the Bears are likely to be noticeably worse in 2021. Undrafted free agent Brian Johnson was added behind him, but Santos’ contract ensures he will be their kicker in 2021, with Johnson competing for a practice squad spot at most.

Punter Pat O’Donnell also seems likely to be unchallenged, with no competition for him added this off-season, despite finishing below average on PFF in 3 of the past 4 seasons, including a 2020 in which he finished dead last among eligible punters on PFF, which was a big part of the reason why the Bears had negative punting DVOA last season. With Santos likely regressing in 2021 and O’Donnell likely to continue struggling, there are concerns with this group.

Grade: C+

Return Specialists

Along with place kicking, kickoff returns were a big strength of the Bears last season, unsurprising, given that they had one of the greatest kickoff return specialists of all time in Cordarrelle Patterson, who averaged 29.9 yards per return and finished as PFF’s highest ranked return man overall. Patterson is gone, however, and the Bears don’t have a clear replacement for him, especially since they’ll need to find a new punt returner as well. Their punt return game was below average last season in DVOA and it won’t be hard for them to be better in 2021, but they still lost every player who returned a punt for them last season and will need to find a replacement, alongside replacing Patterson.

Running back Tarik Cohen has returned both kickoffs (31) and punts (96) in his career, but he is coming off of a serious injury and the Bears may not want him to be used in both roles, in addition to his offensive role. Rookie wide receiver Dazz Newsome returned 48 punts for 11.1 yards per and a touchdown in college, but he returned just 7 kickoffs. One option would be to have Newsome return punts and Cohen return kickoffs, but Cohen has been a lot more effective on punts, with a 10.3 yards per return average, as opposed to 20.3 on kickoff returns. 

Veterans Marquise Goodwin and Damien Williams have some return experience, but their career averages of 21.3 yards per on 22 kickoff returns and 19.5 yards per on 30 kickoff returns respectively are underwhelming and they haven’t returned a kick since 2015 and 2017 respectively, so they would likely struggle in 2021, in their age 29 and age 31 seasons respectively. It won’t be hard for the Bears to be better in punt returns in 2021, but they should see a steep dropoff on kickoff returns, regardless of who wins the job.

Grade: B

Special Teamers

The Bears had more turn-over than most in the rest of their special teams, losing four of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on special teams in 2020. Some of those, like Barkevious Mingo (365 snaps) and Brent Urban (157 snaps), who finished below average on PFF, will not be missed, but Demetrius Harris (162 snaps) was PFF’s 7th ranked special teamer, while Sherrick McManis (200 snaps) also finished above average on PFF. 

The Bears will get some help from reinforcements, as veteran linebacker Christian Jones has some experience on special teams and is coming off of the best special teams season of his career across 158 snaps, as is tight end Jesse James across 170 snaps, but their only other special teams addition this off-season was linebacker Austin Calitro, who has earned a below average grade from PFF in all three seasons in which he’s seen action on special teams.

Fortunately, the Bears top-5 returning special teamers in terms of snaps played all earned above average grades from PFF, DeAndre Houston-Carson (364 snaps), Joel Iyiegbuniwe (363 snaps), Ryan Nall (287 snaps), Josh Woods (266 snaps), and JP Holtz (207 snaps), with Woods leading the way as PFF’s 21st ranked special teamer. Nall and Iyiegbuniwe are one-year wonders on special teams, but the other three are all proven over multiple seasons.

They also have Deon Bush (189 snaps) and James Vaughters (151 snaps) who gave them decent play last season and should be able to continue that into 2021. This group might not be as good as a year ago, but they should still be a solid group overall and they’ll benefit from having the same coaching under Chris Taylor, who has 10 years of experience as an NFL special teams coach, including the past 3 seasons with the Bears.

Grade: B

Conclusion

Going into the off-season, the Bears seemed to be in prime position to decline from the past two seasons, as an aging, veteran, expensive, defense heavy roster remained without a quarterback and seemed to be without the financial flexibility or draft capital to add a quarterback or to address the other needs on both sides of the ball. Things did not get better as players like Charles Leno, Bobby Massie, and Kyle Fuller were released for financial reasons, while declining veteran quarterback Andy Dalton was given a significant sum of money to likely be their starting quarterback. 

However, the Bears lucked out on draft day when Ohio State’s Justin Fields dropped out of the top-10 of the draft, allowing the Bears to move up from 20 to 11 to select him. The Bears had to give up all but one of their other picks in the top-150, as well as a future first round pick, but it will be worth it if Fields pans out. That’s far from a guarantee, but Fields gives this team a much higher upside for 2021 than anyone else the Bears could have realistically added in the first round.

If Fields and/or Dalton struggle as the starting quarterback, there are enough problems around on both sides of the ball for this team that they could end up among the worst in the league, which would lead to them handing the Giants a high draft pick in next year’s draft to complete the Fields trade. However, if Fields has an Offensive Rookie of the Year caliber season and plays like a top-15 quarterback, this team could still find itself very much in contention for a playoff spot in the NFC, possibly even a division title if a few things go right in their division (including Aaron Rodgers leaving). It’s possible no team enters 2021 with a wider range of realistic scenarios. I will have a final prediction for the Bears at the end of the off-season with the rest of the teams.

8/8/21 Update: Not much changes for the Bears, who are unlikely to get much impact from their special teams either way.

9/4/21 Update: Starting Justin Fields from the beginning of the season would give the Bears their best chance to make the post-season, but the Bears are sticking with the veteran Andy Dalton at least for week one. Even if Fields take over the job early, he would need a strong performance for this team to be a playoff contender, given the state of their offensive line, who will also be without Teven Jenkins due to injury, and their declining defense, which will be without linebacker Danny Trevathan for at least the beginning of the season.

Prediction: 6-11 3rd in NFC North