Month: October 2021

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (2-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)

The Packers are 5-1, but they are not the same team as they were a year ago when they went 13-3, as they are missing three of their best players, left tackle David Bahktari, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, and cornerback Jaire Alexander. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem to be playing at quite the same level as a year ago, even if he is still obviously one of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Packers’ only win by more than 10 points came against a Lions team that is winless and the Lions actually led at halftime before the Packers came back and pulled away in the second half. In total, the Packers’ +8 point differential is just 13th in the league and is more in line with a 3-3 team than one that is 5-1 at this point. 

The Packers are also in a bad spot here as they have to turn around and play a much tougher game against the undefeated Cardinals next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 41.5% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football, while favorites of 7+ cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, both of which should work against the Packers this week.

The Packers are very tough to play at home, where Aaron Rodgers has a well above average 10 point jump in QB rating in his career and is 46-22 ATS when playing in front of fans in games he starts and finishes. However, that’s more of a reason not to bet on Washington than it is a reason to pick the Packers, as even with extra homefield advantage it’s hard to get this line up to the 8 points the Packers are favored by, even before you take into account that the Packers are likely to be flat in a tough spot this week. Washington isn’t quite bettable, but only because I don’t want to bet money against Rodgers at home without a great reason to and Washington is still the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 24 Washington Football Team 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +8

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)

The Saints have been the most inconsistent team in the league thus far this season, leading the league in DVOA variance, with their losses coming in overtime to a 1-win Giants team and in blowout fashion to a Panthers team that has only beaten the Texans and Jets aside from their victory over the Saints, while their wins have all been by double digits against the Green Bay, New England, and Washington, who have just two other double digit losses between them, which came against the Chiefs and Bills, two of the top teams in the league. 

Now coming out of their week 6 bye, I would expect the Saints to be more consistent in a good way, as they are getting a significant number of key players back this week, including left tackle Terron Armstead, center Erik McCoy, and kicker Will Lutz, who are all among the best players in the league at their positions. Linebacker Kwon Alexander and Marcus Davenport also could return from extended absences this week. This is traditionally a team that gets better as the season goes on anyway, going 72-48-3 ATS in week 6 or later over the past 10 seasons. On top of that, big road favorites tend to cover at a high rate out of a bye, with favorites of 3.5+ covering at a 64.2% rate with extended rest over the past 30 seasons. 

We aren’t getting much line value with the Saints this week, but my calculated line is New Orleans -6, with the Saints getting significantly healthier and the Seahawks continuing to be without quarterback Russell Wilson, which obviously handicaps them in a significant way. Between that and the great spot the Saints are in, there is enough here for New Orleans to be worth a small bet as 4.5 point road favorites.

New Orleans Saints 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)

The Chiefs lost at home to the Bills a couple weeks ago and then the Bills went to Tennessee the following week and lost as 6-point favorites. Now with the Chiefs going to Tennessee, they are only 4-point favorites and seen as a popular pick to be upset this week. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Bills brought their best effort to knock off the Chiefs and then subsequently were flat the following week against a Titans team that brought its best effort to knock off the newly anointed AFC favorite. 

Now it could be the Titans’ turn to be flat. It’s tough to bring your best effort for back-to-back tough games and teams cover at just 40.8% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 5 or more. The Titans are also dealing with some injury absences, most notably left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is out with a concussion. The Chiefs are, meanwhile, significantly better than their 3-3 record, as they have faced a tough schedule, have struggled mightily with turnovers (-8, second worst in the NFL), and have had significant defensive injuries that have heavily contributed to them ranking dead last in yards per play allowed. 

All three of their wins came against opponents who are 4-2 or better and the Chiefs lost the turnover battle by a combined 8 across those three losses, while only being outscored by 25 points total, in games in which key defensive players were missing. At the same time, the Chiefs haven’t been much healthier in their three wins, which have come by a combined 34 points, despite only an even turnover margin across those three games. Their only one score win has come against another tough team, the Cleveland Browns. 

Turnover margin is one of the least predictive stats and I would expect any team that has struggled with turnover as much as they have to be significantly better going forward, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Patrick Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate. 

The Chiefs defense should also be a lot healthier this week. So far this season, defensive linemen Frank Clark (3 games missed) and Chris Jones (2 games missed), cornerback Charvarius Ward (4 games missed), and safety Tyrann Mathieu (1 game missed) have yet to play in the same game all year and those are arguably their four most important defensive players. The Chiefs should have at least three of them back this week with Ward, the least important of the three, being the only one of the four to even be legitimately questionable this week. Most notably, they will get Chris Jones back from his absence this week and he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the league when healthy. 

Aside from turnovers, which I mentioned earlier as unlikely to continue, the Chiefs’ offense has been as effective as ever this season, leading the league with a 40.6% first down rate that is even more impressive when you factor in schedule adjustments (+10.71% first down rate above expected), so if their defense can even be a complementary unit, this team should be as tough to beat as ever going forward. Even at 3-3, they could easily be considered a Super Bowl favorite in the long-term.

Defense is a much less predictive side of the ball anyway, but I would expect them to be a lot better on that side of the ball going forward, while the offense should continue dominating, barring key injuries of their own. I was hoping for a better line after the Titans won last weekend, but even with the Chiefs as 4-point favorites, we are getting line value, as my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown. This is still worth a small bet, as somehow the Chiefs have wound up underrated.

Update: After considering the Titans’ injuries more, I am upping this bet. The Titans will have Bud Dupree active despite barely practicing this week, but he’s struggled mightily this season, while safety Amani Hooker, who has played very well when on the field this year, is inactive after injuring himself in practice on Friday. The Titans were already down a pair of starting cornerbacks and their top linebacker from a defense that was already underwhelming entering the season, so it’s hard to see them having much success at all slowing down the Chiefs this week. This line remains at 4, while my calculated line is Kansas City -8.5, so we’re getting a lot of value with Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Tennessee Titans 30

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -4

Confidence: High

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)

The Panthers started 3-0, but have fallen back to earth at 3-3. The schedule has gotten tougher, as their wins came against the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, and the Saints, who were flat off of a huge week one win, while their recent losses have come to the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings. However, injuries have also been a big part of the problem and this team has legitimately seen it’s level of play fall off in recent weeks as a result of absences like feature back Christian McCaffrey, top cornerback Jaycee Horn, and top linebacker Shaq Thompson.

The Panthers schedule gets easier this week with a trip to New York to face the Giants, but the Giants aren’t as bad as the Jets or Texans, who were relatively competitive against the Panthers earlier this season. The Giants are just 1-5, but two of their losses have come by a combined four points, so they could easily have another win or two, while their blowout loss to the Cowboys was a tied game before quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a concussion that knocked him out for the game.

Overall, they rank 23rd in schedule adjusted first down rate, 22nd in schedule adjusted yards per play allowed, and 13th in special teams DVOA, not great, but also not in line with the worst teams in the league. The Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, losing 38-11 at home to the Rams, but betting a team coming off their worst game of the season tends to be a winning proposition as you can get good value, as we are in this game where the Giants are field goal home underdogs against an underwhelming opponent. The public is betting heavily on the Panthers as field goal road favorites because of recency bias, but my calculated line is at even. 

The Giants are also in a good spot as home underdogs immediately after being blown out as home underdogs, as teams cover at about a 59.3% rate in their second straight game as home underdogs after a loss by 14 points or more. Teams likely tend to be undervalued in that spot historically like the Giants are here and it seems to be easier for teams to compete with or better a superior team in their second of two home games than in the first. Between the line value and the good spot, the Giants are worth a play this week, as they have a good chance to pull the upset and we are getting a field goal cushion to work with if they don’t.

Update: The Giants surprisingly won’t have wide receiver Sterling Shepard, which hurts this offense, but I have already locked this pick in. The Giants aren’t a terrible bet even without Shepard, but I would have preferred if he played.

New York Giants 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (6-0)

The Texans won their week one game and were tied 10-10 with the Browns at halftime in week two, but that changed when quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who was playing at a high enough level to mask a lot of the flaws on this roster, got injured and was replaced by raw rookie Davis Mills. Since Mills’ insertion into the lineup, all of this team’s flaws have been magnified and they have been made worse by the loss of arguably their best player, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, for an extended period of time. 

Overall, the Texans have been outscored 137-41 since Mills took over the starting job and that’s even worse if you take out a 25-22 loss to the Patriots in a game in which the Patriots were missing most of their offensive line but still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%. Their other three full games with Mills have been losses by an average score of 27.7 points, including a 31-3 loss last week to an underwhelming Colts team that was missing its two best offensive linemen.

Now the Texans have to go to Arizona to face the NFL’s last undefeated team. The Cardinals may not be the best team in the league and have had a few things break their way to allow them to still be undefeated, but they’re definitely one of the top teams in the league. This line is high at 18, but I don’t think it’s high enough, as my calculated line has the Cardinals favored by 23. That doesn’t mean I am betting them though, as there are a lot of things that can go wrong with betting a huge favorite, hence why favorites of 17+ are just 15-24 ATS over the past thirty seasons. 

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, as they have to turn around and play a much tougher game against the Packers next week, which will be made even tougher by the fact that it’s on a short week. Favorites cover at just a 41.5% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football, while favorites of 7+ cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, both of which should work against the Cardinals this week. 

Overall, this game is sandwiched between matchups against the Rams, 49ers, and Browns and matchups against the Packers and 49ers for the Cardinals. That makes it hard to see them bringing their best effort for this game against arguably the worst team in the league, but the talent gap between these two teams is so big that it might not even matter, so the Cardinals are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, even as massive favorites.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Houston Texans 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -18

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

The 49ers were a team I expected to make a big leap in win total this season, but that was largely dependent on them staying relatively healthy compared to last season’s disastrous injury situation, which hasn’t quite happened. Jimmy Garoppolo will return this week from a one-week absence, getting extra rest over last week’s bye week, but he returns to an offense without arguably it’s two most important players, tight end George Kittle and left tackle Trent Williams, who are both among the top players in the league at their respective positions, making them monumental absences for the 49ers. 

This 49ers’ offense also remains without starting running back Raheem Mostert, while Garoppolo could be at risk of an in-game setback, given his injury history, in which case the 49ers would have to turn to third string quarterback Nate Sudfeld with regular backup Trey Lance out and Sudfeld would be a significant dropoff under center if he had to see action. Meanwhile, their defense will be without rotational defensive tackles Maurice Hurst and Javon Kinlaw, starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and top cornerback Jason Verrett. 

The 49ers are still not as injury plagued as a year ago and their disappointing 6-10 record a year ago could have been a lot better had the 49ers not lost several close games in which the turnover margin almost definitely decided the game, but they are just a slightly above average team in my roster rankings right now. The Colts, meanwhile, have been as banged up as any team in the league thus far, but they haven’t been terrible all things considered, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted first down rate, 24th in schedule adjusted yards per play allowed, and 18th in special teams DVOA, and they’re getting healthier and have been playing better of late. 

The big injury development for the Colts in recent weeks has been Carson Wentz returning to form after early season foot issues and he’ll get the added benefit of having stud left guard Quenton Nelson return to the lineup this week after a 3-game absence. I have the 49ers as the slightly better team in my roster rankings right now and they are at home, but my calculated line is just San Francisco -3, so we’re getting some line value with the Colts at +4. Unfortunately, it’s not enough to bet, especially considering the Colts play in the eastern time zone and now have to travel west for a night game, a spot in which teams cover less than a third of the time historically. I am still taking the Colts, but only for pick ’em purposes.

Update: Looking at this game more, this line really isn’t that far off and the 49ers do have the big edge in a night game. I wouldn’t bet on the 49ers, but I’m changing this pick to them for pick ’em purposes.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

The Buccaneers entered the season as one of the top Super Bowl favorites, bringing back all 22 starters from last season’s Super Bowl winning team, and they have gotten off to a 5-1 start thus far, but they’ve gone 3-0 in one score games, so they’ve gotten somewhat lucky to be where they are record wise. They also lost five regular season games last season before getting hot in the post-season and they are also dealing with something that they really didn’t last season, which is a significant amount of injuries, a list that has been growing by the week. In total, the Buccaneers will be without top cornerback Carlton Davis, fellow starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, top off ball linebacker Lavonte David, starting edge defender Jason Pierre-Paul, stud wide receiver Antonio Brown, and talented starting tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Despite that, the Buccaneers are still favored by 11.5 points in this matchup against the Bears. The Bears looked like one of the worst teams in the league to start the season, but they’ve been better in recent weeks, as their defense has gotten healthier, their offense is in marginally better hands with promising rookie Justin Fields under center rather than low upside veteran Andy Dalton, and their special teams has played great in recent weeks. The Buccaneers should still win this game relatively easily, but my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 10, suggesting we’re getting some value with the underdog at +11.5. This isn’t a bettable game, but the Bears are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +11.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Both of these teams have impressive records at 4-2 and 5-1, but both teams have also played a lot of close games, with the Bengals playing 4 games decided by a field goal or less (2-2), including a pair of overtime games and the Ravens playing 4 games decided by one score or less (3-1), including another pair of overtime games. Both teams are 2-0 in games decided by multiple scores, but the Bengals’ wins came against the Steelers and Lions, while the Ravens, who have faced a tougher schedule overall, beat the Broncos and Chargers by multiple scores.

The Ravens also have a talent edge on paper, about 6 points better in my roster rankings, suggesting we’re getting some line value with the Ravens as just 6.5 point favorites at home. The Ravens are also in a pair of good spots as they are big home favorites before a bye and they are in their third straight home game. Home favorites of 6+ cover at a 63.0% rate all-time before a bye week, while home favorites cover at a 55.6% rate in their third straight home game. 

Combining the two trends, teams have covered in 13 of 14 instances over the past 30 seasons as favorites in their third straight home game before a bye week. The Ravens should be fully focused for this game and give their best effort as a result. This isn’t a big play, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Ravens should take care of business against a Bengals team that has faced an easy schedule thus far and that has mostly overachieved their talent level this season.

Update: This line has dropped down to 6, which is a bigger number than it used to be because of the new overtime rules. I am upping this to a higher confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 33 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

The Eagles are just 2-4, but they’ve faced a tough schedule. Their losses have all come to above average teams, the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, with two of those games being decided by one score or less, while their wins have come against the Panthers and Falcons on the road by a combined 29 points. Those two teams are much more comparable to the Raiders, the Eagles’ opponents this week, than any of the teams the Eagles have lost to. 

The Eagles’ defense has especially faced a tough schedule, as the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Buccaneers are all in the top-3 in schedule adjusted first down rate, and the Eagles held up all things considered, holding those three teams well below their collective season average and leading the league by allowing 1.24 yards per play less than expected. They’re probably not going to be the best defense in the league by this metric all season, but this is a much better defense than they’ve been given credit for if you take into account who they’ve played.

The Eagles’ offense has not been nearly as good, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted first down rate, but their offensive line is a lot healthier now than it’s been, getting left tackle Jordan Mailata back from a 2-game absence in week 5 and now getting right tackle Lane Johnson back from a 3-game absence this week, the first time the Eagles have had their two tackles together since week 2. The Eagles are still missing their starting guards Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo, but they’ve gotten good play from their replacements and should overall have a strong offensive line with Johnson returning this week. 

In their current state, I have them 2.5 points better than the Raiders, suggesting this line should be about even, with the Raiders getting about 2.5 points for homefield advantage. The Raiders have a better record at 4-2, but their victories haven’t been all that impressive, with none coming by more than 10 points and two coming in overtime, despite an underwhelming strength of victory that includes a mediocre Steelers team, a terrible Dolphins team, a banged up Broncos team, and a Ravens team that was travelling cross country for a night game in the Raiders home opener. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ two losses have each come by double digits, including a home loss to an underwhelming Bears team and the Chargers’ only multi-score win of the season. In hindsight I wish I had picked the Browns on Thursday Night Football as my Pick of the Week because I liked that matchup more than anything this weekend, but I didn’t know that at the time, so I am taking this as my Pick of the Week. The Eagles have a good chance to pull this straight up upset and even if they don’t, we get protection from a field goal loss.

Update: I am glad I locked this in because Darren Waller might not play and this line dropped to 2. I would still like the Eagles at a lot at +2, assuming Waller doesn’t play, but this is an afternoon game, so the line and the injury report need to be monitored before locking in a bet if you didn’t get this at +3.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)

The rule of thumb in these Thursday games is to take a home favorite in a non-divisional matchup, as historically it has proven tough for inferior teams to travel on a short week and face a superior team that is out of their division that they are unfamiliar with. Overall, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 65% rate on Thursday nights, as long as both teams are on normal rest. The Browns are only favored by a point here, suggesting that the visitors are the superior team, but I think this line is way off.

Both teams are 3-3, but the Browns have been much better overall. Their three losses came against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, who are all among the top teams in the league, with a combined record of 13-5 and no losses to opponents who are worse than 4-2, and two of those teams were decided by one score and could have gone either way. The Browns’ strength of schedule isn’t that impressive, but they went into Minnesota and won by a touchdown against a Vikings team that is better than their 3-3 record, while their wins over the Texans and Bears came in blowout fashion, with the Browns winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and 18.86% respectively in those games and the yards per play battle by 1.02 and 4.24 respectively. 

The Browns’ one blowout loss, their loss to the Cardinals, did come just last week, which is concerning because the Browns were dealing with significant injury issues in that game that will carry over to this game, but the Broncos are equally banged up. The Browns are expected to be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, their two top running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, their stud right tackle Jack Conklin, possibly starting wide receiver Odell Beckham, and their most impressive linebacker this season, rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, while the Broncos have lost wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson since the start of the season.

The common narrative is that the Broncos got out to a 3-0 start by facing weak competition and have fallen back to earth against tougher competition, but the Broncos largely dominated their weak competition and looked like a legitimately good team, while their tougher competition in recent weeks has only consisted of the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders. It’s not just that their schedule has gotten tougher; they have legitimately played much worse the past few weeks and injuries are the primary culprit. 

This line has shifted from favoring the Browns by 6 points last week on the early line last week to a single point this week, largely due to the Browns injuries and their blowout loss last week, but it seems to ignore the Broncos’ injuries and their recent struggles, all against teams inferior to the Cardinals. When strength of schedule is taken into account, the Browns rank 16th in first down rate, 3rd in yards per play allowed, and 3rd in special teams DVOA, which are the most predictive metrics for each unit, while the Broncos rank 22nd, 23rd, and 25th. 

My roster rankings have these two teams closer together and overall the value of the Browns’ injured players is more than the Broncos’ injured players, but the Browns still have about a four point talent edge and are still in relatively good hands under center because backup Case Keenum is one of the better in the league. Add in their extra homefield advantage on a short week and the Browns should be favored by a lot more than a point in this matchup. This might be a Pick of the Week if this was a Sunday or Monday game, but I hate having my top pick on Thursday before I’ve gotten to review everything during the weekend, so I’m keeping this as a high confidence pick.

Cleveland Browns 23 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1

Confidence: High