Month: November 2021

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers have moved up above .500, but they’re still an underwhelming team overall. Their total margin of victory across their four wins is still less than their total margin of defeat across their three losses, giving them a point differential of -10. In efficiency ratings, they rank 23rd, 11th, and 18th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. They were a 12-4 team a year ago, but their offense struggled and their wins were primarily because of their defense carrying them to mostly close victories against a relatively weak schedule. This year, their offense has been about the same, while their defense has fallen noticeably from last year’s dominant performance, even if they are still an above average unit.

That being said, I don’t have any desire to bet on the Bears, who are an even more underwhelming team. Their offense has remained stagnant like the Steelers’ offense and like the Bears’ offense has been for years, while their once dominant defense has declined significantly in recent years due to off-season losses and is significantly worse than Pittsburgh’s, especially with edge defender Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson both likely out for this game. We are still getting some line value with the Bears at +6.5 because my calculated line is at Pittsburgh -5, but this is a pick for pick ’em purposes only, as even against an overrated Steelers team, it’s hard to be confident in the Bears covering the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Low

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) at New York Giants (2-6)

This game is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Raiders are in a good spot coming off of a bye week, as road favorites of more than a field goal cover at a 63.5% rate all time after a bye week, but the Raiders also have a much bigger matchup than this on deck, facing divisional rival Kansas City after this matchup with a last place NFC team. The Raiders also aren’t as good as their 5-2 record, as their schedule has been relatively easy and they have just a +14 point differential, 14th best in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean we are getting good line value with the Giants as just 3.5-point home underdogs. 

The Giants are a better team than their 2-6 record, but right now it’s only marginally so, as they have several key offensive skill position players dealing with injuries, with feature back Saquon Barkley and starting wide receiver Sterling Shepard out and fellow starting wide receiver Kenny Golladay questionable to return from a 3-game absence and very possibly to be limited even if he doesn’t play. We are getting slight line value with the Raiders so they are the pick for pick ’em purposes, but I don’t have any real confidence in them covering this spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -3.5

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (1-7)

The Texans’ season got off to a good start, as they won their week one game by multiple scores, but they have yet to win a game since. It also hasn’t been close most of the game, as they have been outscored 220-82 since that week 1 game, giving them a point differential of -122 which is the worst in the league. That margin looks even worse if you take out a 25-22 point loss to the Patriots, in a game in which the Patriots were missing most of their offensive line but still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%, and if you take out the meaningless 22 points they scored in garbage time against the Rams last week, after trailing 38-0 through 3 quarters.

The good news for the Texans is they will get quarterback Tyrod Taylor back this week, for the first time since the first half of their week 2 game against the Browns. That game was actually 10-10 at the time Taylor went down, with all of their subsequent struggles coming with raw rookie quarterback Davis Mills under center. Taylor doesn’t return to quite the same roster around him, with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, arguably the Texans’ best player, being the most notable absence, but with Taylor back under center, the Texans at least have a serviceable starting quarterback and they have had some success with him this season, so it was surprising to me that this line didn’t shift more than it did, with the Texans still being 5.5-point underdogs in Miami.

The Dolphins have also lost seven straight games since winning week one. They haven’t gotten blown out quite as much as the Texans have, but they still have lost by an average of 13.7 points per game and their win wasn’t as impressive as the Texans’ week one win. They did beat a more competitive team in the Patriots, while the Texans’ win came over the lowly Jaguars, but the Texans at least won convincingly, while the Dolphins won by just one point in a game in which the Patriots lost a pair of fumbles and won the first down rate and yards per play battle. If not for one of those two fumbles, the Dolphins could easily be winless right now.

The Dolphins were 10-6 a year ago, but a dropoff always seemed inevitable, as they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%), and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), which was actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). The Dolphins also aren’t getting any key reinforcements back this week, unlike the Texans, who get Taylor back. 

We’re still not getting much line value with the Texans, who, even with Taylor back, have such a bad roster that they are still a few points behind the Dolphins in my roster rankings and they are on the road as well, but with Taylor back the Texans are at least bettable in the right situation. This seems like that situation, as the Dolphins have to play a much tougher opponent next week (Baltimore) and they have to do it on a short week. 

Favorites cover at just a 41.5% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football, while favorites of 5+ cover at just a 42.8% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 60% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, both of which should work against the Dolphins this week. I am hoping we get a +6 because I’m not sure I am going to bet on the Texans at +5.5, but I still may end up taking them at that number if we can’t get a better number. This is a low confidence pick for now, but that could easily change.

Update: It doesn’t look like we are getting 6 and, in fact, this line has dropped to 5 in some places. Taylor is a significant upgrade under center for the Texans and should make them more competitive than they’ve been without him, but when you consider that they have lost by multiple scores in 6 of their last 7 games, with the exception being a game against a team missing their whole offensive line, even capable quarterback play is unlikely to save this team. The Texans are still the pick for pick ’em purposes, but I don’t think they’re bettable unless we happen to get 6.

Update: Tua Tagovailoa is surprisingly inactive for the Dolphins, meaning they will start Jacoby Brissett under center. That doesn’t make a difference though, because they’re comparable quarterbacks, so nothing changes here.

Miami Dolphins 20 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +5.5

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (7-1)

The Broncos are 4-4, but they’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and have yet to beat a team that has more than two wins on the season. On top of that, three of those four wins were the first three games of the season. Those wins all came by double digits, but the Broncos have had as many injury absences as any team in the league since then and, as a result, they are not nearly the same team, barely beating an underwhelming Washington Football Team last week. 

In total, the Broncos are without stud left tackle Garret Bolles, starting tight end Noah Fant, talented edge defender duo Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, every down middle linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson, and impressive slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, who all played for this team week one this season. That’s a lot of missing talent. The Cowboys are favored by 10 points in this matchup, but I don’t think the public quite realizes how much worse the Broncos are without all of the players they are missing, as my calculated line has the Cowboys favored by 13.5 points. 

The Cowboys have a key injury absence with stud left tackle Tyron Smith out, but the Cowboys are much better equipped to deal with an absence like that than the Broncos are with Bolles out, as the Cowboys have much more talent on the rest of this offensive line. Right tackle La’El Collins isn’t as good as Smith, but he has missed most of the season and the Cowboys hardly missed him and brought him back in a reserve role because of how well this offensive line played without him. Now Collins can plug into the lineup with Smith out and the Cowboys can still field a strong offensive front. 

This line has moved up from 7.5 last week on the early line to 10 this week, so we’re not getting as much line value as we would have last week, but the Cowboys did have an impressive upset win in Minnesota last week without Dak Prescott and much of this line movement is because of sharp action on the Cowboys. The Cowboys are still worth a bet at 10, and if this line happened to go back down below 10, I would probably make this a bigger bet.

Update: Some 9.5s have started showing up again Sunday morning. I am going to lock this in as a high confidence pick at that number. The talent disparity between these two teams is just so much more significant than this line suggests, with the Broncos losing so much talent since the beginning of the season.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -9.5

Confidence: High

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)

The Saints got a huge home win over the Buccaneers last week, but they still had a significant loss in that game, as quarterback Jameis Winston is now out for the season after tearing his ACL, leaving veteran journeyman backup Trevor Siemian under center. Siemian led the win in relief of Winston last week, but the Saints also won the turnover battle by 3 and had a pick six, which is not a sustainable way to win games, and they lost the yards per play battle by 2.3, which is much more predictive. 

The Saints are in many ways healthier than they have been for most of the season, with a pair of talented offensive linemen in Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy and a trio of defensive starters in Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Kwon Alexander back in the lineup after significant absences, but the downgrade at quarterback will hurt them. Despite that, this line has moved up from favoring the Saints by 5.5 on the early line last week to favoring them by 6 this week, as the public bought into the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers.

The Saints are also unlikely to have the same effort this week as they had last week, now coming off of an emotional home victory, as teams cover at just a 41.4% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 4 points or more. It could be especially tough for the Saints to focus this week because last week’s win came against a tough divisional foe, while this week they face a sub-.500 Falcons team. The Saints also have to turn around and face the Titans next week and favorites of 6 or more cover at just a 44.1% rate all-time before facing an opponent whose winning percentage is 30% better than their current opponent’s winning percentage.

We aren’t really getting line value with the Falcons, who have faced just one team with a winning record and whose three wins came by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 5-18, but the Saints’ quarterback situation and general lack of an explosive passing game makes it hard to justify them being favored by this many points against anyone other than the worst teams in the league and the Falcons don’t quite qualify. Even if we aren’t getting much line value, the Falcons are worth a small play at +6 because of how bad of a spot the Saints are in.

New Orleans Saints 20 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-4)

This is a game with a lot of injury uncertainty. The big question mark is Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, who has been out since the Panthers’ week 3 game, a stretch in which the Panthers offense has struggled mightily without him. The Panthers 3-0 start was in large part due to an easy schedule, but there is no denying how much injuries have hurt this team as they have fallen from 3-0 to 4-4 and McCaffrey’s injury was the biggest one. The Panthers’ defense, which had its own injury issues earlier in the season, is in much better shape now with Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Thompson both healthy, so, if McCaffrey can play, the Panthers should be in much better shape on both sides of the ball than they were a couple weeks ago. 

I say “should” because, in addition to it being unknown how close to 100% McCaffrey would be if he played, the Panthers also have uncertainty at quarterback, with Sam Darnold dealing with both a concussion and a shoulder injury. Darnold has not played well this season, but the Panthers would be in even worse shape at quarterback if he played at less than 100% or if they had to turn to backup PJ Walker, who has struggled when called upon in limited action in his career. The Panthers also could get punter Joseph Charlton back this week, which would be a huge upgrade for their special teams, but also adds more injury uncertainty to this game.

The Patriots have been listed as 4-point road favorites, with the oddsmakers posting a line despite the uncertainty. The Patriots are just 4-4, but they could easily have anywhere from 5-7 wins right, as three of their losses came by 1 point, 2 points, and in overtime, meaning they were just -3 in point differential at the end of regulation across those three losses. Two of their wins are one-score wins, but one took a garbage time touchdown by the Chargers to make it a one-score game, while the other came in a game in which they were missing four of their five offensive line starters. 

The Patriots’ offensive line is healthy now and this is a much better team than their record suggests, ranking 11th in schedule adjusted mixed team efficiency, despite their offensive line injuries, while the Panthers have ranked 26th, albeit while dealing with injuries of their own. The Patriots won’t be an appealing bet at -4 if McCaffrey, Darnold, and Charlton all play at something close to 100%, but I don’t foresee that happening, so it’s very likely I will end up putting a bet on New England. I am leaving the Patriots as a low confidence pick for now because of the uncertainty, but I’ll probably have an update before gametime, likely on Saturday after the injured reserve activation deadline. 

Update: Both McCaffrey and Darnold seem likely to play, although there is no way to know how effective either will be. It’s enough for me to leave this as a low confidence pick though, particularly the McCaffrey news, as he’s probably their most important offensive player.

New England Patriots 20 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New England -4

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

The Browns lost at home to the Steelers last week, but it was a game they likely would have won if not for a red zone fumble, as they won the first down rate battle, but lost by 5-points in a game in which they were -1 in turnovers. The turnover margin also likely cost them their week 1 game against the Chiefs, losing the turnover battle by 2 in a 4-point loss. The Browns also have another one score loss to a quality team, the Chargers, while their only mutli-score loss was the Cardinals, who were the league’s last unbeaten team. 

Overall, the Browns still rank highly in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, ranking 8th, 5th, and 4th respectively. They have a -3 turnover margin, which has likely cost them at least a game or two, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The Browns do have some injury concerns with running back Kareem Hunt, right tackle Jack Conklin, and wide receiver Odell Beckham all out, while quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing at less than 100%, but they haven’t really been healthy all season and, even in their current injury situation, they still have a 4-point edge on the Bengals in my roster rankings. 

The Bengals got out to a 5-2 start on the strength of their defense, but their defense was always overachieving its talent level and has now fallen back to earth in a big way after being carved apart by the lowly Jets, now ranking 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, while their offense still ranks just 27th when you take into account they’ve faced the easiest schedule of defenses in the league. 

Add in a 10th ranked special teams and you have a Bengals team that ranks behind the Browns in all three phases and yet is being favored at home, albeit by less than 3 points. I wish we were getting the full field goal and that we had more certainty in Baker Mayfield’s health, but he practiced in full all season and the Browns have a very good chance to come on the road and get the upset, so I like the Browns both against the spread and straight up at +115.

Update: The more I think about this, the more I want to increase this bet. Baker Mayfield practiced in full all week, reportedly looked great, and was not listed with an injury designation. The Browns have been held to 14 points or fewer in three straight games with Baker out or playing at less than 100%, but they topped 26 points in 4 of their first 5 games before then, including 28.3 points per game in 3 road games, so if Baker can resemble the quarterback he was to begin the season, the Browns should be able to go on the road and win this game relatively easily. There may also be some added incentive for Baker to play well in the wake of the Odell Beckham situation and Baker’s statistical production has been noticeably better without Odell than with him since he arrived in Cleveland, so I’m not worried that Baker will miss Odell on the field. I’m moving this to a high confidence pick. I was waiting for a +3, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

The Ravens have to follow up this game with a short week and a Thursday Night Football matchup, which usually isn’t good news for a favorite’s chance of covering the spread, as favorites have covered at just a 41.8% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, the Ravens are only facing the lowly Dolphins, so next week’s game probably won’t be a huge distraction and, more importantly, the Ravens should also be completely well rested, not just coming off of a bye, but somehow in their fourth straight home game. Including the bye week, the Ravens haven’t had to travel for a game since their week 4 trip to Denver. 

There isn’t much data on teams in their fourth straight home game and even less so on teams in their fourth straight home game coming off of a bye, or with a bye at some point during the homestand, but teams in their third straight home game cover at a 54.9% rate and it stands to reason that trend would extend to the fourth straight. For the record, teams are 6-3 ATS over the past 30 seasons in their fourth straight home game, which is a small sample size, but it adds further evidence that this should be a good spot for the Ravens.

We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Ravens at -6, as my calculated line has them as 7-point favorites. The Vikings have played better than their 3-4 record and haven’t lost by more than one score, but they just lost probably their best defensive player Danielle Hunter for the season, which hurts their outlook significantly going forward, and the Ravens are one of the better teams in the league, so they could easily hand them their first multi-score loss. There isn’t enough here to be confident betting the Ravens, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 35 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (7-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4)

The Cardinals have significant injury uncertainty this week, with their star quarterback Kyler Murray and their top offensive playmaker DeAndre Hopkins both missing practice all week and being considered gametime decisions at best. Normally in situations like this, I like to wait until there is more certainty on the injury situations and often times there won’t even be a line posted, but the 49ers are currently listed as 2-point home favorites against the injury riddled Cardinals and at that number the 49ers are good enough to bet even if both Murray and Hopkins play, assuming both will be going at less than 100% if they can even play.

The 49ers are just 3-4 this season after going 6-10 last season, but their biggest problems in both seasons have been injuries and turnovers. The 49ers had the most adjusted games lost to injury last season and the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -11, while this season the 49ers rank 4th worst in turnover margin at -6 and have continued to be as injury plagued as any team in the league, with key absences on both sides of the ball throughout the season.

The good news is that the 49ers are getting healthier, most notably with stud tight end George Kittle set to return this week, and also that turnover margin is very unpredictable week-to-week. Despite the 49ers injury absences, they still rank 6th, 10th, and 14th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, which are much more predictable and predictive than turnover margin, so the 49ers have overall played noticeably better than their record and should be better going forward with key players returning in the past couple weeks. The Cardinals, meanwhile, also are without top interior defender JJ Watt, even if Murray and Hopkins are able to go.

Even if Murray and Hopkins played, I would have the 49ers a point better than the Cardinals in my roster rankings and if they don’t play, we are obviously getting a steal with the 49ers as just 2-point favorites. The 49ers are also in a great spot, as they are favored in the first of two tough games, with favorites covering at a 54.1% rate all-time when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of more than 60%, before facing another such team the following week (in this case, the 49ers’ game against the Rams). Lock this in at -2 (or anything under 3) while you can.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

The Eagles are just 3-5, but they have the best point differential of any 3-win team at +12. That’s largely because they blew out the Falcons and Lions, two of the worst teams in the league, but despite those two easy games, they have still faced one of the toughest schedules in the league. Their defense in particular has faced a tough schedule, as they have faced the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, who rank 1st, 2nd, and 4th in offensive efficiency. Overall, their defense has held up pretty well considering their tough schedule and currently ranks 4th in defensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. 

The Eagles’ offense got off to a slow start because of some offensive line injuries, but they have also improved on that side of the ball, now ranking 10th in offensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. The Eagles’ efficiency ratings might be skewed by two blowout wins, but when you compare it to the Chargers, who rank 12th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency, it’s hard to justify the Chargers being favored by a couple points on the road, especially since the Eagles also have a significant special team advantage over the Chargers, who once again have one of the worst special teams in the NFL. The Eagles also hold a point differential edge (+12 vs. -5). 

The Chargers may have a better record, but just one of their wins came by more than one score and dating back to last season, they have just three wins by multiple scores, with one coming against the 1-win Jaguars and one coming against the Chiefs backups in a meaningless week 17 game. This is a slightly improved team over a year ago, but they’re not as good as they looked during their 4-1 start, especially now that they are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks. My roster rankings have the Eagles as the better team overall and, given that they are at home as well, we are getting a great value with them as 2-point underdogs. This is my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week