Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

The Eagles were blown out last week at home against the Cowboys, but they barely tried in a game which meant very little to them, resting several key players ahead of the post-season. Even with that big loss factored in though, the Eagles still rank significantly better in schedule adjusted efficiency than you would expect based on their record, as they rank 10th, 15th, 15th, and 8th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency.

They have mostly beaten up on bad teams, going 9-1 against sub .500 opponents, with seven wins by double digits, but no wins against teams with a record better than .500 in seven tries, including a 0-6 record against playoff qualifiers. However, a closer look at those losses paints somewhat of a brighter picture for their chances of covering against the spread this week though, as one of the losses was last week when they didn’t try, while two of the losses came early in the season when their offensive line was not healthy, and, in their other three losses, just one came by more than one score, very relevant with this line at 8.5.

One of those one score losses was against these Buccaneers, a 6-point loss in Philadelphia. That game actually works against the argument for the Eagles covering this game though, as the Buccaneers won the first down rate (4.00%) and yards per play battle (0.93) by significant margins in a game in Philadelphia. One matchup between two teams doesn’t necessarily predict every matchup between those two teams, even with similar personnel, and my calculated line based on season long play is Tampa Bay -7, which gives us some line value with the Eagles, but with the Eagles’ poor track record against good teams this season and the fact that blowouts also tend to be more common in the first round of the blowout (about 4% more games are decided by double digits than the regular season), it’s hard to be confident in Philadelphia at all. 

On top of that, both teams have significant players who are legitimately questionable, linebacker Lavonte David and running back Leonard Fournette for the Buccaneers and edge defender Josh Sweat and right guard Josh Herbig for the Eagles and, depending on which of those players are active, the Buccaneers could easily become the right side. Either way, I don’t see myself betting on either side and, for now, this is a no confidence pick on the Eagles.

Update: Fournette is out for the Buccaneers, but more importantly, David is in, while Herbig and Sweat are out for the Eagles. Despite that, this line has dropped all the way to seven for some reason. I am flipping my pick to the Buccaneers, albeit still for a no confidence pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -7

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, a predictive metric based on yards per play, first down rate, and strength of schedule, the Steelers are by far the worst team in the league to qualify for the post-season, finishing 30th, 16th, 17th, and 29th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency respectively. Given that, it’s unsurprising that they needed an 8-2-1 record in one score games to qualify for the final post-season spot in the AFC. 

They go to Kansas CIty as 12.5 point underdogs, which might seem like a lot, but it’s probably not high enough, as the Chiefs are arguably the best team in the league, with an offense that ranks 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency, a special teams that ranks 3rd, a defense that has much better than their 28th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency since getting healthy after a terrible start to a season, and a mixed efficiency that ranks 5th even with their underwhelming defensive rank. Given how far below average the Steelers were this season, my calculated line actually has the Chiefs favored by 17 points.

Big favorites tend to cover in the first round of the post-season anyway, as there tends to be a good reason why they are favored by that many points, with double digit favorites going 9-2 ATS over the past 30 seasons. Simply put, teams like the Steelers that many feel are not playoff caliber, usually tend not to be and get exposed very quickly. On top of that, there also tends to be more blowouts in general in the post-season, especially in the first round. 

While the percentage of games decided by 7 points or more in the first round of the playoffs (61.68%) is steady with the regular season percentage (62.34%), the percentage of games decided by 10 points or more jumps significantly in the first round of the post-season (52.34% vs. 48.52%) and the same is true of games decided by 14 points or more (39.25% vs. 35.33%). That is surprising when you consider that these are all games between playoff qualifiers, who should be more evenly matched than the league as a whole. 

This is likely because teams get desperate and start going for it on long 4th downs earlier in the game in the post-season in an attempt to save their season, leading to more games getting out of hand. Also better team tends to play their best football at the right time. That’s what I expect to happen here, so even at 12.5 I am confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. I wouldn’t make this a big play, but this one seems like an obvious blowout that, based on history, should not be overthought.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -12.5

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

New England Patriots (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)

These two teams are pretty similar, as they have solid records, but even more impressive point differentials, with the Bills ranking 1st at +194 and the Patriots ranking 3rd at +159. That carries over to efficiency rating, which is more predictive week-to-week, as the Bills rank 7th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Patriots rank 5th in both metrics, having played a slightly tougher schedule with a better winning percentage against playoff qualifiers. Neither team has fared well against playoff qualifiers though, mostly accumulating their impressive point differentials against sub .500 teams.

One of the wins against playoff qualifiers that each team has came at the expense of the other, with these two teams splitting the season series and each winning on the opposing team’s homefield. There is more of a tendency to discount the Patriots’ win in Buffalo because it came in tough conditions in a game in which the Patriots kept the ball on the ground almost every play and relied on their defense to stop a more traditional Bills offense, but the season long stats suggest these two teams are even enough that a season series split would make sense and, though the Bills’ win came by more points, they only outgained the Patriots by about a tenth of a yard per play across the two matchups.

Despite the Bills only being slightly better than the Patriots at best, this line, favoring them by 4 points at home, suggests they are a noticeably better team, with homefield advantage only counting for about 1.5 points in recent years and about 30% of games being decided by 4 points or fewer historically. My calculated line has the Bills favored by 2, so we’re getting significant line value with the Patriots, crossing the key number of three, which decides about 1 in 6 games. 

Three is the amount the Bills were favored by in the matchup between these two teams in Buffalo earlier this season, which I thought was too high at the time, and now I think it’s an overreaction to the Patriots’ slow finish to the season that this line has shifted even higher to four, as the Patriots won the yards per play and first down rate battle in two of their three losses to end the season, with the exception being their home loss to the Bills. The Patriots are worth a bet at +4 and I am hoping for +4.5 before gametime for potentially a bigger bet.

Update: This line has moved up to 4.5. The Patriots will be without left tackle Isaiah Wynn, but I wasn’t expecting him to play and his absence isn’t that big of a deal because they can move Trent Brown to left tackle and insert Michael Onwenu at right tackle, where he has had a lot of success when called upon over the past two seasons. Cornerback Jalen Mills being out might be a bigger deal because they are thinner at that position, but I was also expecting him to be out and the Bills have questionable cornerback depth as well, since losing top cornerback Tre’Davious White a few weeks ago. I am going to increase this bet.

Buffalo Bills 24 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: New England +4.5

Confidence: High

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

I don’t normally lock games in this early in the week and this is especially risky given the NFL’s COVID protocols, but neither of these teams has any significant questionable players according to the early practice report and like the Raiders enough as 6-point underdogs that I want to take the risk and lock it in early because sharp action is likely to drop this line throughout the week (it started at 6.5 yesterday). At first glance, the Bengals might seem like an obvious choice, as they beat the Raiders by 19 in Las Vegas earlier this season and, despite their identical records, the Bengals also have a significant edge in point differential at 84 vs -65, with the Raiders going 7-2 in one-score games, including 4-0 in overtime. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

While the Bengals may have won by a score of 32-13 in the first matchup, the Raiders outgained the Bengals by 1.80 yards per play. The reason for that is the same problems the Raiders had for much of the season, as they lost the turnover battle by one and performed poorly on third down on both sides of the ball, allowing the Bengals to convert 8 of 16, while converting just 1 of 7. On the season, the Raiders have the 27th ranked turnover margin in the league at -9, while ranking 22nd in third down conversion percentage and 15th in third down conversion percentage allowed, which is in large part to blame for their 23rd ranked point differential.

Fortunately for the Raiders, turnover margin is not predictive week-to-week, nor is underperforming on third downs, which the Raiders are, as they actually rank 15th on offense and 8th on defense in schedule adjusted efficiency, a metric based on yards per play and first down rate differential, much more predictive metrics week-to-week. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank just 16th on offense, 20th on defense, and 18th in mixed efficiency, behind the 9th ranked Raiders. 

This game is in Cincinnati, but homefield advantage is only worth a couple points at most now and could actually work against the Bengals for spread purposes, as home favorites are 6-16 ATS since 2002 when making their first career playoff start, which Joe Burrow is. Even if they don’t win this game outright, the Raiders should keep this game close and my calculated line has the Bengals as just 2.5-point favorites. I would still like the Raiders at +5.5, but I want to lock in 6 before I can’t anymore.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Las Vegas Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +6

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)

It’s hard to make a call on this game because the Raiders have a pair of key players whose status for this game is legitimately questionable, stud tight end Darren Waller and top cornerback Casey Hayward. This game is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs, so both will make every effort to play and, if both play, the Raiders should be able to cover this spread as 3-point home underdogs. The Raiders’ point differential (-68) is much worse than the Chargers’ (+18), despite these two teams having the same record, but the Raiders have been hurt by a -11 turnover margin (3rd worst in the NFL), which is not predictive week-to-week. 

What is also not predictive week-to-week is that the Raiders have underperformed on third and relative to their early down performance. The Raiders rank 15th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 9th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but are just 25th in third down conversion percentage and 21st in third down conversion percentage allowed. In terms of schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, which is more predictive, the Raiders rank 11th overall, just behind the 9th ranked Chargers.

If Hayward and Waller do not play, however, the Chargers might actually be the right side, especially since they tend to play well away from home, where they lack a homefield advantage anyway. Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 22-15 ATS on the road, as opposed to 15-22 ATS at home. For now, I am going to assume that one of Waller or Hayward will play in this game and take the Raiders, but this is a no confidence pick and I probably won’t be betting on the Raiders either way, given the Chargers’ road prowess.

Update: Both Waller and Hayward are in so this is now a low confidence pick.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Las Vegas Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (12-4)

The Rams are arguably the top team in the league and, even if they aren’t quite, there are a few reasons why I think highly of them. For one, they are probably the most balanced team in the league, ranking 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, 8th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, 6th on special teams, and 5th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, making them the only team in the league to rank in the top-10 in schedule adjusted efficiency in all three phases. 

On top of that, the Rams are one of the relatively healthiest teams in the league. That hasn’t always been the case, especially in recent weeks, as they were missing center Brian Allen and cornerback Jalen Ramsey against the Cardinals, safety Jordan Fuller, right tackle Rob Havenstein, and tight end Tyler Higbee against the Seahawks, and left tackle Andrew Whitworth against the Vikings, but the Rams still managed to win those games and all of those players have since returned. 

The Rams did lose Robert Woods to a mid-season injury, but they replaced him somewhat with Odell Beckham and that has been the Rams only big injury loss this season, meaning that, when you include the addition of Von Miller on defense in a mid-season trade, the Rams are a rare team that actually has become more talented as the season goes on, with most of the league losing talent as the season goes on. As a result, they rank 8.5 points above average in my roster rankings.

The 49ers, on the other hand, have had a lot of key personnel absences this season. They had been getting healthier in recent weeks, but they will either be starting raw backup Trey Lance or injured veteran Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback in this game, while stud left tackle Trent Williams, talented safety Jimmie Ward, and impressive slot cornerback K’Waun Williams are key players could all miss this week’s game after playing last week. Given that, it is pretty strange that this line shifted from favoring the Rams by 6.5 points on the early line last week to just 4 points this week.

The 49ers could get starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, rotational interior defense Maurice Hurst, and starting cornerback Emmnauel Moseley back from extended absences this week, but they are questionable at best like the aforementioned players and, even in the 49ers’ best case injury scenario, I have the Rams 4 points better than them and calculated as 5.5-point home favorites in this matchup. In the worst case scenario for the 49ers, I have the Rams calculated as 11 point favorites.

Given that we’re getting significant line value either way, I want to lock this pick in while the line is still only four. In fact, without another good choice, I am going to make this my Pick of the Week, as it seems very likely the 49ers will at least be without Williams in this matchup, a huge loss as he’s been arguably the best offensive lineman in the NFL this season. Assuming Williams is out, the best I could have the 49ers at is 7.5-point underdogs, even if all the other aforementioned players play, as he’s that important to the 49ers’ offense.

Los Angeles Rams 24 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5)

The Cardinals pulled the upset in Dallas last week to keep their chances at winning the division alive, but there is still reason to be concerned about this team long-term. They started the season 7-0, but they benefited significantly from a +8 turnover margin, which was never likely to continue (+3 in 9 games since), and they have not been the same on either side of the ball since losing top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and stud interior defender JJ Watt for an extended period of time. They are also missing wide receiver Rondale Moore, who could be filling in for Hopkins, interior defender Jordan Phillips, who is supposed to be filling in for Watt, and a pair of starting cornerbacks Robert Alford and Marco Wilson.

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on more predictive metrics like yards per play and first down rate, the Cardinals rank 12th, 19th, and 18th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 10th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency. That rank is not as good as their record and they are probably even worse than that suggests given the key players they are missing. My roster rankings, which take injuries into account, have the Cardinals just 1.5 points above average.

The Seahawks are just 6-10, but they have been hurt by a 2-5 record in one score games and have a +21 point differential, despite talented quarterback Russell Wilson missing three games and being limited for about three games upon his return. If you exclude that stretch, the Seahawks are 5-5 with a +32 point differential, with their defense (22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency) and their special teams (4th) serving as complementary units to an offense that has still performed above average when Wilson has been healthy this season.

I wish the Seahawks were not missing top linebacker Bobby Wagner, talented run stuffing interior defender Al Woods, and a pair of starting offensive lineman Gabe Jackson and Brandon Shell, but I was considering making the Seahawks my Pick of the Week before those players were ruled out, so even missing those players, I still only have the Seahawks a half point below average and, with the Cardinals 1.5 points above average, we’re getting line value with the Seahawks as underdogs of 6 points.

The Cardinals did win in Seattle earlier this year by 10 with backup quarterback Colt McCoy under center, but Russell Wilson was not 100% in that game, while McCoy played at a fairly high level for the three games he filled in for Murray. On top of that, just because a team won a divisional game on the road as underdogs does not mean they will beat that same opponent more easily in a same season, regular season game rematch. In fact, divisional favorites cover at just a 41.9% rate in that spot and only win straight up about half the time as favorites of 6.5 points or fewer. This isn’t a big play, but the Seahawks are bettable as 6-point underdogs.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +6

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

New Orleans Saints (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

The Falcons don’t have a terrible record at 7-9, but all of their wins have come by one score or fewer against teams with a record of .500 or worse, while their losses have come by an average of 18.78 points per game, giving them a -136 point differential that ranks 6th worst in the NFL. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Falcons rank 21st, 25th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 28th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, even worse than their point differential suggests.

The Saints only have one more win than the Falcons, but their 15th ranked schedule adjusted mixed efficiency and their +19 point differential suggests they have been the much better team this season and that is despite the fact that they have been as affected by absences as much as arguably any team in the league. They still remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has missed the whole season, starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who went down for the season week 8, starting left guard Andrus Peat, who went down for the season week 7, and talented left tackle Terron Armstead, who has played in just eight games this season, but they are also as healthy as they have been in a while. 

Their defense will have the dominant defensive line trio of David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport, and Cameron Jordan together for just the seventh time this season and the previous two games were games missed by stud linebacker Demario Davis and stud safety Marcus Williams respectively, who have both since returned. Meanwhile, their offense got wide receiver Deonte Harris, who leads the team in receiving yards per game, back from a 3-game absence last week, a few weeks after getting feature back Alvin Kamara back from a 4-game absence, while talented offensive linemen Ryan Ramczyk and Erik McCoy are expected to return after missing 7 games and 5 games respectively this season.

As healthy as they have been in weeks, I have the Saints 3 points above average in my roster rankings, while the frequently blown out Falcons are 4.5 points below average, giving us a calculated line of New Orleans -6. That suggests we are getting significant line value with the Saints as 3.5-point favorites and that they may be bettable at that number, though I want to make sure Ramczyk is actually returning before locking this one in. If he does not play, I would need this line to drop to three.

New Orleans Saints 23 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)

This line, favoring the Buccaneers only by 8.5 points at home over the Panthers, suggests that the odds makers aren’t sure if the Buccaneers will play their starters for this whole game, but I think it’s likely that they do, given that they will want to secure the #2 seed in the NFC, which will get them at least two home playoff games, as well potential NFC Championship homefield advantage if the #1 seed loses in the second round. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has also said they aren’t resting anyone and resting in the final week of the season has never been something Tom Brady has done in his career, even when there has been nothing to play for, so I am not sure why this line is at 8.5, down from 16.5 on the early line a week ago.

The Buccaneers are still going to be short-handed, missing stud wide receiver Chris Godwin, their two best running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, their two best edge defenders Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, and their top linebacker Lavonte David, but they should still be favored by more than 8.5 points against the Panthers, who are 12.5-point underdogs on my calculated line. The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start, but, in large part due to injuries, have lost 11 of their last 13 games and are one of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers’ offense bottomed out without feature back Christian McCaffrey and talented center Matt Paradis, while their defense is not as good as it was earlier in this season due to all of the cornerbacks they are missing with injuries, most notably top cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who was acquired to replace the injured Jaycee Horn, who is joined on injured reserve by fellow expected starters Donte Jackson and AJ Bouye. This line is underpriced, so the Buccaneers are worth a bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8.5

Confidence: Medium