Month: September 2022

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

Coming into the season, I considered the Dolphins overrated. They thought they’d be significantly better on offense than a year ago, with Tua Tagovailoa going into his third season, with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson being added to his receiving corps, Chase Edmonds being added to his backfield, and Terron Armstead and Connor Williams being added to his offensive line, but they were starting from a pretty low base point, ranking 26th in offensive efficiency last season. The Dolphins had a solid defense last season, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, and they returned all of their key players from a year ago, but lost defensive minded head coach Brian Flores were likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense. 

The Dolphins have started 2-0, but I still think they are a little overrated, even if they have exceeded my expectations. In their week 1 victory over the Patriots, they were very reliant on the turnover margin, as they were +3 in that department, leading to a 20-7 win, despite only winning the yards per play battle by 0.18 and losing the first down rate battle by -0.85%. They followed that up with a win in Baltimore, the Dolphins were about even in first down rate (+0.53%) and yards per play (-0.83) against a very banged up Ravens team that blew numerous coverages. Overall, they rank just 21st in overall efficiency, despite their 2-0 record.

The Bills, meanwhile, are properly rated, rightfully seen as the best team in the league, ranking 1st in overall efficiency by 3.5 points over the next best team, a year after finishing the season as the #1 overall team in efficiency by 5.5 points over the next best team. They’re also in a great spot, coming off of a blowout win on Monday Night Football, which tends to carry into the next week, with teams going 61-39 ATS all-time after a MNF win by 21 points or more. 

Unfortunately, the Bills are not healthy enough to bet them confidently this week, missing a pair of key interior defenders Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips, starting cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Dane Jackson, and talented starting safety Micah Hyde. We are still getting some line value with the Bills as 5.5-point road favorites, as my calculated line is Buffalo -7, even with all of their defensive injuries, but there isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting.

Update: Safety Jordan Poyer and center Mitch Morse are unexpectedly out for the Bills, two big losses. This line has dropped to 4.5, but that’s insignificant line movement, so I am dropping all confidence on this game.

Buffalo Bills 30 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

There are a lot of similarities between these two teams. Both of these two teams entered the season expected to be among the worst teams in the league. Both of these teams surprisingly did not lose as big home underdogs week one, but both teams also lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in those games and required some unsustainable metrics to avoid week one defeats. Both teams then followed that up by struggling in week two losses on the road.

The Bears beat the 49ers week 1, but the 49ers had a lot of injury problems and still won the first down rate and yards per play battle by 0.41% and 1.30 respectively on the road, with the game largely swinging on turnovers and big plays, which are not as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards. The Bears then lost in Green Bay by 17 in a game in which they lost the first down rate and yards per play battle by 10.85% and 0.71 respectively.

The Texans, meanwhile, played a Colts team that was also very banged up to a tie week one, but lost the yards per play and first down rate battle by 1.35 and 8.09% respectively, only managing a tie because of turnovers and special teams, which are not as predictive. The Texans then lost in Denver last week, in a game that was only decided by a touchdown, but also a game in which the Texans lost the yards per play and first down rate battle by 1.42 and 4.40% respectively, primarily keeping the game close because they won the turnover battle.

This line, favoring the Bears at home by a full field goal, suggests that the Bears are a slightly better team, but I have that the Texans are slightly better, both in my roster rankings (31st vs. 32nd) and in terms of overall efficiency (29th vs. 31st). The Texans are also healthier, with the Bears likely to be missing top cornerback Jaylon Johnson and/or top linebacker Roquan Smith due to injury. If both of those players are out and this line stays at three, I will likely place a bet on the Texans, but, for now, this is just a pick for pick ‘em purposes only.

Update: Jaylon Johnson is out, but Smith will play. Johnson’s absence is bigger in my opinion given their lack of depth at cornerback. This isn’t a big play, but I like getting the full field goal with the Texans and the money line at +140.

Houston Texans 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are 0-2, but both of their losses have been very close, coming by a combined 5 points. In their 3-point loss to the Giants last week, they won the yards per play battle by 1.31 and the yards per play battle by 6.03%, only losing because of a -2 turnover margin, which is not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs. Their offense only ranks 19th in efficiency, but that’s a significant improvement over last season, when they ranked 29th, as Baker Mayfield is at least somewhat of an improvement over last season’s quarterback situation. 

Their defense, meanwhile, once again ranks among the best in the league in efficiency, again ranking 4th, a year after having the 4th ranked defense in efficiency across the 2021 season. They probably aren’t as good defensively as that suggests and they’ve faced a pretty easy schedule in terms of the offenses they’ve faced this season, but they’re at least an above average unit on that side of the ball, while their offense is much more of a complementary unit than it was a year ago. Despite their 0-2 start, the Panthers are likely to be a competitive team for most of the season, barring major injuries.

That being said, we’re getting good value with the Panthers as field goal underdogs at home against the Saints. New Orleans is a more talented team overall, but they’re a similar team to the Panthers in that they have a below average offense and an above average defense and, while the Panthers haven’t lost by more than a field goal yet this season, the Saints have yet to win by more than a field goal, struggling to beat the Falcons in Atlanta week 1. They could easily have even more trouble on the road against a better division foe in Carolina. My calculated line is even, so like getting the full field goal with the home team enough to bet on the Panthers. I don’t like them as much at +2.5, but the money line should be a good value regardless and even at +2.5 they would remain my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Carolina Panthers 17 New Orleans Saints 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns lost last week to the Jets, but the Jets needed to score twice within two minutes and recover an onside kick to win a game in which the Browns had a 99.9% chance of winning with less than two minutes left and in which the Browns won the first down rate battle by 13.87% and the yards per play battle by 0.23. Including their week 1 win over the Panthers, the Browns rank 3rd in overall efficiency through two weeks and would be 2-0 if they just recovered an onside kick or if Nick Chubb had taken a knee at the 1-yard line instead of scoring. 

The Browns have faced a pretty easy schedule, but they also rank slightly above average in my roster rankings, despite starting backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as they have one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback position. They’ll be short-handed this week without talented edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, but they will otherwise be healthy, including the return of right tackle Jack Conklin, who missed the first two games of the season recovering from a knee injury suffered last season. 

The Steelers, meanwhile, will be without edge defender TJ Watt, probably their most important player. The Steelers’ offense, which ranked 28th in efficiency in 2020 and 30th last season, ranks 31st through two games this season and their defense isn’t nearly as good without Watt. While the Browns could easily be 2-0 right now if they had just recovered an onside kick, the Steelers could easily be 0-2 right now if the Bengals had just made an extra point, in a game the Steelers would have lost despite a +5 turnover margin, which is not a consistent metric week-to-week. The Bengals won the first down rate battle and yards per play battle in that game by 11.36% and 0.22 respectively and that was with Watt playing most of the game.

In terms of overall efficiency, the Steelers rank 30th through two games and, without Watt, they don’t rank much higher than that in my roster rankings. I have these two teams about 5.5 points apart, giving us a calculated line of about Cleveland -7.5 at home, so we’re getting good line value with the Browns as 4.5-point favorites. If the Browns had a 2-0 record and the Steelers were 0-2, I suspect this line would be closer to 7.5, probably around a touchdown and, as I mentioned, that could easily be the case right now, if not for special teams disasters. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Browns enough to bet them this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -4.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

In week 1, the Bills went into Los Angeles and beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams in a blowout, winning 31-10 in a game in which they won the first down rate battle by 11.04% and the yards per play battle by 3.44, despite the fact that the Rams were in a great spot as defending Super Bowl Champions in a home opener, a situation in which teams had covered in 12 of the 17 previous instances. A lot of the talk after that game is about how the Rams were overrated coming into the season, but I think the bigger takeaway is how good the Bills are. 

Coming into the season, I had the Bills winning 13 games, winning the AFC, and ultimately losing in the Super Bowl, but I think even that might have been underrating them. The Bills finished the 2020 season with the #1 ranked offense in efficiency, finished last season #1 in defensive efficiency, with a 5th ranked offense, and always had the potential to be a truly dominant team on both sides of the ball this season, even if I wasn’t expecting them to necessarily be that good. I don’t think it’s an overreaction to consider the Bills the clear Super Bowl favorite right now, as a result of that game.

The Titans, meanwhile, lost their home opener against the Giants, losing by 1 point on a late 2-point conversion as 5.5-point home favorites. The takeaway for some from that game might be that the Giants are better than expected, but I think that game said more about the Titans than the Giants. The Giants are almost definitely going to remain a below average team this season, but the Titans might not be much better, if any better than them. 

The Titans finished last season at 12-5, but they ranked just 19th in team efficiency, benefiting from a 6-2 record in one-score games and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that would be tough to maintain long-term. They especially struggled without AJ Brown last season, which is a problem because they traded him this off-season and, while they have Robert Woods and Treylon Burks to replace him, they still figure to miss Brown significantly. On top of that, they lost a pair of starting offensive linemen and top edge defender Harold Landry, who is out for the season with a torn ACL.

This line shifted from Buffalo -7.5 on the early line last week to Buffalo -10 this week and, while we’ve definitely lost line value as a result of that, I don’t think that line movement is an overreaction and we’re still getting a little bit of value with the Bills, who I have calculated at 11.5-point favorites, with the public maybe not quite realizing how good the Bills are or how much worse the Titans are likely to be this season than their record last season would suggest. 

The Bills do have some important injuries, missing top cornerback Tre’Davious White as well as their top interior defender Ed Oliver and his likely replacement Tim Settle, but the White missed the opener against the Rams as well and the Titans aren’t healthy either, not only missing Harold Landry, but also a pair of would-be starting cornerbacks Elijah Molden and Kristian Fulton, so we’re still getting some line value with the Bills.

That being said, I can’t take the Bills with any confidence this week because the Titans are likely to have the emotional edge. While the Bills just won one of their biggest games of the season and were practically anointed Super Bowl favorites on national TV, the Titans just lost to a team that was expected to be one of the worst in the league, so they could be overlooked, which happens to be when the Titans tend to play their best football. 

Since Mike Vrabel took over in 2018, the Titans are 14-9 ATS after a loss, 15-7 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal, and 7-2 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal after a loss, which is the case this week. The Bills are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but we might not see their best effort this week, while the Titans are likely to play one of their better games of the season, so, even though we’re getting line value with the Bills, they are one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Buffalo Bills 31 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-0)

Last week, I bet on the Buccaneers as 2.5-point road favorites in Dallas because of how well Tom Brady led teams have done as underdogs or favorites of 3 or fewer in his career. The Buccaneers covered, pushing Brady’s career ATS record to 58-28 when not favored by 3 points or more, and they now are 2.5-point road favorites again this week, this time in New Orleans. That’s down from Tampa Bay -3 a week ago on the early line, a significant shift, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. 

In another game where Brady’s team just basically just has to win to cover, it would seem to make sense to pick them again, but this is not nearly as sure of a thing as last week, for a couple reasons. For one, the Saints have had a lot of success against Brady in his tenure with the Buccaneers and, still with a dominant defense, they could easily do so again this week. That’s especially true because of the Buccaneers’ injury situation, which is the second reason this isn’t as sure of a thing as last week. 

Having already lost left guard Aaron Stinnie and center Ryan Jensen to injury this season, the Buccaneers will now be without talented left tackle Donovan Smith this week with an arm injury he suffered last week. With Shaq Mason replacing Alex Cappa at right guard this off-season, the Buccaneers now have just one offensive lineman from last season left and not nearly as good of an offensive line as a result. On top of that, they have a receiving corps that is missing Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown from the last couple years and that now will be without Chris Godwin, who is out with a hamstring injury suffered in the opener.

Between Smith and Godwin going down in the past week, it’s perfectly reasonable that this line moved off three and in fact this is right where my calculated line is. The Buccaneers still have a strong defense of their own and could win this game as a result, but Tom Brady will have his work cut out for him against the Saints defense, given the issues around him on offense right now. I’m still taking the Buccaneers, expecting them to sneak out a close, low scoring victory, but this pick is only for pick ‘em purposes and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this was a Saints upset victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -2.5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)

The 49ers lost last week as big road favorites against a Bears team that was expected to be one of the worst in the league. The 49ers had a lot of injury issues last week, the game was played in the pouring rain, and the 49ers won the first down rate battle (+0.31%) and yards per play battle (+1.30), with the game swinging on turnovers and big plays, which are not as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards, but I still have concerns about them going forward, especially given how bad the Bears were expected to be.

Part of the concern is that is because the 49ers are still far from fully healthy. Stud tight end George Kittle could return this week after missing week 1, but he’s unlikely to be 100% and could be on a snap count even if he does play, while top cornerback Jason Verrett, top safety Jimmie Ward, and starting center Daniel Brunskill remain out, while top running back Elijah Mitchell joins them this week. Brunskill’s absence is especially a problem because the 49ers are already down a pair of offensive linemen from a year ago, with Laken Tomlinson signing with the Lions and Alex Mack retiring. Add in inexperienced quarterback Trey Lance struggling thus far in his first stint starting over proven veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and, all in all, the 49ers are not the same team right now that they’ve been in recent years.

Given that, we’re getting good value with the Seahawks as 9-point road underdogs. The Seahawks had the emotional edge on their side in their week 1 win over the Broncos, playing at home on Monday Night Football against their former quarterback, and the Broncos are not as good as the general public thinks, with a defense that is likely to not be as good as a year ago, but the Seahawks’ upset win last week probably was not a fluke, as I expected them to be a competitive team coming into the season. 

In some ways, this Seahawks team reminds me of when Pete Carroll first took over, when they went 7-9 with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst as their starting quarterbacks in his first season, before finding Russell Wilson in the following year’s draft. The 49ers should still win this game, but my calculated line has them as just 6.5 point favorites, giving us good line value with the Seahawks. Unfortunately, that emotional win last week could put the Seahawks in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to struggle after big home upset wins, covering the spread at just a 41.6% rate all-time after winning as home underdogs of 5 points or more. For that reason, this is a no confidence pick, but the Seahawks are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle +9

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

The Bengals lost the turnover battle by five at home against the Steelers last week and still could have won the game on numerous occasions if not for losing their long snapper, leading to several missed kicks that would have won the game. That’s because they won the first down rate battle and the yards per play battle by 11.36% and 0.22 respectively, which are much more predictive week-to-week than turnover margin. They should be more than fine going forward, especially with Joe Burrow likely to be better than he was last week, in his first game back after off-season surgery.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting a good opportunity to get good line value with the Bengals after that loss, as this line has shifted from favoring the home team Cowboys by 2.5 points last week to now favoring the visiting Bengals by 7 points, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout loss to the Buccaneers and the loss of quarterback Dak Prescott with injury. That being said, we are still getting at least a little line value with the Bengals, as the Cowboys offense is just that bad right now and not just because Prescott is out.

Already down two starting offensive linemen in free agency, they are also without left tackle Tyron Smith and now are without replacement left guard Connor McGovern, with both players injured, while their receiving corps, which already lost Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson this off-season, is also without wide receiver Michael Gallup due to injury right now. I’m not confident enough in the Bengals to bet on them as touchdown road favorites, as Cooper Rush could be better than expected against a Bengals team that doesn’t have a lot of tape on him and that could get caught off guard by him, like the Vikings were last season in Rush’s first career start, but the Bengals are still the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Dallas Cowboys 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

The Rams were blown out on national television in the first game of their Super Bowl defense last week, but I think that had much more to do with their opponents, the Buffalo Bills, being a dominant team than it had to do with the Rams being significantly worse than most expected them to be coming into the season. The Bills finished the 2020 season with the #1 ranked offense in efficiency, finished last season #1 in defensive efficiency, with a 5th ranked offense, and always had the potential to be a truly dominant team this season, even if I wasn’t expecting them to necessarily be that good, particularly because they were in a very tough spot on the road against a defending Super Bowl Champion at home in week one. 

The public who watched that game seemed to have another takeaway, as they prefer the underdog Falcons in this matchup, even as the odds makers have dropped this line from 13.5 on the early line last week to 10 this week. I normally like to fade significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play and this situation is no different. The public may also like that the Falcons kept it close with the Saints last week, which could erroneously lead the public to believe the Falcons are not one of the worst few teams in the league, but the Falcons were at home last week, the Rams are a much tougher opponent, and that game being so close could work against the Falcons this week, as they could be flat after blowing a big quarter 4th lead and barely losing to a big divisional rival. 

The Rams, on the other hand, should be fully focused after being embarrassed last week and are 16-10 ATS off of a loss in the Sean McVay era. They’ll be without center Brian Allen and could be without edge defender Leonard Floyd, but I still have them calculated at 13-point favorites, as the Falcons just don’t have the talent to take advantage of the Rams’ injuries or any of their weaknesses, unlike the Bills, who are arguably the best team in the league and certainly played like it a week ago. The Falcons, conservely, are likely to play like arguably the worst team in the league this week. This isn’t a huge play, but the Rams are definitely worth a bet this week.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10

Confidence: Medium