Month: September 2022

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)

The Giants pulled the upset in Tennessee last week, winning by 1 point on a late 2-point conversion as 5.5-point road underdogs, but I wasn’t terribly surprised by that and I think it had a lot more to do with the Titans being overrated than the Giants being underrated. The Titans finished last season at 12-5, but they ranked just 19th in team efficiency, benefiting from a 6-2 record in one-score games and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that would be tough to maintain long-term. They especially struggled without AJ Brown last season, which is a problem because they traded him this off-season and, while they have Robert Woods and Treylon Burks to replace him, they still figure to miss Brown significantly. On top of that, they lost a pair of starting offensive linemen and top edge defender Harold Landry, who is out for the season with a torn ACL.

The Giants, meanwhile, are likely to be below average on both sides of the ball this season and, while they’re not quite one of the worst teams in the league, they’re also not healthy right now, missing wide receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and KaDarius Toney, left guard Shane LeMieux, edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux, and cornerback Aaron Robinson. The Panthers aren’t a great team or anything, but they’re healthier and I have them about three points better than the banged up Giants in my roster rankings, so we’re getting value with them as underdogs in New York, even if they’re only underdogs by 2-points. There isn’t quite enough here for the Panthers to be worth a bet against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +110 because the Panthers should be at least considered 50/50 to win this game, if not slight favorites.

Carolina Panthers 20 New York Giants 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league, but their week one blowout loss to the Chiefs seems to have soured the public’s opinion on them, as this line shifted from favoring the Raiders by just 2.5 points on the early line last week to now favoring them by 5.5 points this week, a significant shift given that close to 25% of games are decided by 3-5 points. That’s despite the fact that the Raiders lost last week in Los Angeles against the Chargers. 

The Chargers are one of the better teams in the league and the Raiders won both the first down rate (4.87%) and yards per play (+0.25) battle, only losing by 5 because they lost the turnover battle by 3, which is not nearly as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards per play, but we’ve lost almost all line value with the Raiders in this game since the early line last week, especially since the Raiders will be missing a trio of key players for the first time this season in this game, with talented safety Trevon Moehrig, top linebacker Denzel Perryman, and starting center Andre James all out with injuries. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are expected to get top interior defender JJ Watt back from injury. My calculated line is Las Vegas -6, so we’re still getting some line value going against the Cardinals, but not nearly enough to be at all confident in the banged up Raiders.

Las Vegas Raiders 33 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -5.5

Confidence: None

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

I went 4-3 with my bets last week. The Dolphins/Patriots and Steelers/Bengals games were my two biggest plays that lost, but both games swung significantly on the turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. The Patriots lost by 13 in Miami, but they lost the turnover battle by three and only lost the yards per play battle by 0.18, while winning the first down rate battle by 0.85%, which are both significantly more predictive week-to-week than turnover margins. The Steelers, meanwhile, needed a +5 turnover margin and an injury to the Bengals’ long snapper to win by three in overtime, in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by 11.36% and the yards per play battle by 0.22.

Coming into the season, I thought the Patriots were an underrated team and the Steelers were an overrated team and last week did nothing to change my opinion on that significantly, given how the games were decided. Both plays likely would have hit (Bengals -6.5 and Patriots +3.5) if both teams played turnover neutral football. If anything, the Steelers are now more overrated and the Patriots are more underrated, with this line not moving significantly from the early line a week ago, favoring the visiting Patriots by only a couple points, despite the Steelers losing edge defender TJ Watt, arguably the most valuable defender in the league.

The general consensus seems to be that they can’t believe the Patriots are favored at all, as the public is all over the underdog, but the Patriots are at least a decent team that should be favored by a significant amount, even on the road, against a team with one of the worst offenses in the league and a defense that will be significantly worse without it’s most important player. My calculated line has the Patriots as 6.5 point favorites, so I like them a lot in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, especially since the Steelers could be in a look ahead spot, after an exhausting overtime win last week, now facing an 0-1 opponent, with a divisional Thursday night game against the Browns on deck next week. This is my top play this week, hoping for better turnover luck than I had in these two teams’ games last week.

New England Patriots 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: New England -2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Coming into the season, I thought the Dolphins were an overrated team. They should be significantly better on offense than a year ago, with Tua Tagovailoa going into his third season, with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson being added to his receiving corps, Chase Edmonds being added to his backfield, and Terron Armstead and Connor Williams being added to his offensive line, but they’re starting from a pretty low base point, ranking 26th in offensive efficiency last season and if Tagovailoa doesn’t take a big step forward, the Dolphins are likely to be a middling offense at best. 

The Dolphins had a solid defense last season, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, and they return all of their key players from a year ago, but they could still be worse, losing defensive minded head coach Brian Flores and likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense. The injury bug has already damaged this group in a significant way this season, knocking starting cornerback Byron Jones out for the start of the season, a big absence in this game.

The Dolphins won their week 1 game against the Patriots, but the turnover battle was a big part of that, as they were +3 in that department, leading to a 20-7 win, despite only winning the yards per play battle by 0.18 and losing the first down rate battle by -0.85%. Yards and first downs are much more predictive than turnovers, so I didn’t come away from the Dolphins week 1 game with my mind being significantly changed about this team. That being said, it’s hard to take the Ravens this week with any confidence, given their injury situation. 

The Ravens are likely to be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley again, with his backup Ja’wuan James now also injured as well. Running back JK Dobbins is likely to return, but backup Gus Edwards is still out, while their defense remains without Tyus Bowser, David Ojabo, and could be without their top-3 cornerbacks, with Kyle Fuller tearing his ACL week 1, Marcus Peters still questionable at best to return from last year’s ACL, and top cornerback Marlon Humphrey highly questionable after getting injured in practice this week and not practicing at all on Friday. I’m still taking the Ravens unless all of their injured players are out, but it’s a no confidence pick, with this line (Baltimore -3.5) being exactly where I would have it, given all of the Ravens’ injuries and injury uncertainty.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-0)

The Browns won their first game of the season, but they barely won in Carolina against a mediocre Panthers team and there is still a lot of concern around their offense with backup Jacoby Brissett under center. Their defense is still one of the better in the league, but, overall, they’re not much more than an average team, so I think they’re a little overvalued as 6.5-point home favorites over a Jets team which is better around the quarterback than most give them credit for and, as a result, a team which is not one of the worst in the league, as some consider them.

The Jets lost at home by multiple scores to the Ravens last week, but they won the first down rate battle by 5.19% and barely lost the yards per play battle by 0.39, with the game largely being decided by turnovers, special teams, big plays, and the Jets going 2-14 on third down, all of which are not nearly predictive week-to-week as yard and first downs per play. We’re not getting great line value with the Jets, with my calculated line favoring the Browns by 6, but it’s at least some line value and the Jets are also in a better spot, with the Browns possibly looking ahead to the Steelers next week on Thursday Night Football. All-time, favorites cover at just a 42.8% rate before a Thursday Night game. There’s not quite enough here for the Jets to be worth betting, but they’re the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Cleveland Browns 21 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

This line, favoring the Eagles at home by two points, suggests the odds makers view these two teams as about even, but I have the Eagles about three points better in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with the Eagles in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover. Overall, the Eagles could be one of the better teams in the league this season, getting better on both sides of the ball this off-season, after finishing 9th in overall efficiency and making the post-season in 2021, and, while the Vikings are a solid team who beat the Packers last week and who could easily make the post-season, I don’t think they’re on the same level as the Eagles. This isn’t a big bet, but I’m pretty confident in the Eagles at anything less than three.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers lost by double digits in Minnesota last week, but I’m not worried, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings are an underrated team who could easily make the post-season this year, with a talented roster, a healthier defense, and a better coached offense, so that wasn’t the upset that it seemed, especially given that it was in Minnesota. The Packers typically don’t play as well outside of Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point QB rating drop on the road that is significantly higher than average, but they’re also a dominant home team, going 50-24 ATS in games started and finished by Rodgers, including 46-19 ATS in regular season games.

The Packers also were missing their two talented starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins and should be healthier on the offensive line going forward. It’s possible Bakhtiari and Jenkins both miss this game and left guard Jon Runyan is questionable as well, yet to clear the concussion protocol, so the Packers could possibly have a worse offensive line situation than a week ago, but Jenkins and Bakhtiari both seem more likely to play than a week ago, so it’s more likely they’re healthier upfront this week compared to a week ago.

The final score didn’t look good in last week’s loss in Minnesota, but, especially given that the Packers’ offensive line wasn’t healthy and that the Vikings were an above average opponent playing at home, the loss was not that bad, as the game was closer than the final score suggested. The Packers actually won the first down rate, with the game swinging on turnovers and big plays, which are not as predictive week-to-week. The Packers also typically have done very well off of a loss with Aaron Rodgers, going 42-21 ATS in his career.

Despite all this, the Packers are only favored by 10 points at home this week against a Bears team that is still arguably the worst in the league, after an off-season demolition of this roster that left them with the least expensive roster in the league and the most cap space in the league in 2023, in the middle of a multi-year rebuild. The Bears may have thrown some people off the scent of how bad they are last week, beating a banged up 49ers team at home in the rain, but that game largely swung on turnovers and big plays as well, with the Bears losing the first down rate and yards per play battle by 0.46% and 1.30 respectively. 

That big upset win also puts the Bears in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 41.6% rate historically after a win as home underdogs of 5 points or more, as teams tend to be overvalued and overconfident in that spot. The Bears still figure to get blown out plenty this season and this game in Green Bay seems likely to be one of those times. I can’t bet the Packers with too much confidence right now given the uncertainty of their offensive line injuries, but this line is also likely to increase if good news comes out about their offensive line and I think that’s more likely than not, so I’m going to lock in at least some bet for now. I may increase this to a high confidence pick depending on which offensive linemen are active for the Packers and where this line ultimately settles. 

Update: Runyan and Jenkins are active and this line is still 10, so I am going to increase this bet.

Green Bay Packers 33 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10

Confidence: High

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)

Coming into the season, I had the Texans as one of the worst teams in the league. They looked improved from a year ago, but not significantly improved and the Texans were even worse than their 4-13 record suggested a year ago. They lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in 3 of their 4 wins and had an average margin of defeat of 17.2 points per game in their 13 losses, leading to them ranking dead last in efficiency rating by over 5 points over the next worst team the Jacksonville Jaguars, who happened to be the only team against whom they won the first down rate and yards per play battle all season.

The Texans tied their first game of the 2022 season against the Colts, but they lost the first down rate battle by +8.09% and the yards per play battle by +1.35, only playing to a tie because they won the turnover and special teams battles, which are much less predictable than yards and first downs. That game was also at home against a Colts team that is below average without their top defensive player Shaq Leonard. I would still count the Texans among the worst few teams in the league.

Making matters worse, teams typically don’t fare well off of a tie, covering the spread at just a 43.3% the following week, including 31.2% when on the road like the Texans are this week in Denver. The Broncos, meanwhile, are coming off of a close road loss in Seattle, which actually should put them in a good spot, given how their quarterback Russell Wilson has fared off of a loss in his career, going 33-16 ATS the following week. 

However, I don’t think that loss in Seattle was a total fluke. The Seahawks did have the emotional edge playing against their former quarterback at home on Monday Night Football, but the Broncos’ defense was always unlikely to be as good as it was a year ago without former head coach Vic Fangio, which was something that was left out of the analysis of this team by many this off-season, preferring to focus on their offensive improvement with Wilson and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos’ defensive woes will get even worse without safety Justin Simmons, who will miss the next few weeks with injury, leaving them without probably their best defensive player. They could also be without their top linebacker Josey Jewell for the second straight week. 

Despite those injuries and last week’s results, this line has barely moved since a week ago, moving from Denver -10.5 only down to -10. I’m still taking the Broncos for pick ‘em purposes because they’re in a better spot, but if Jewell is out, we’re not getting any line value at all with the Broncos, so I can’t take them with any confidence. If Jewell plays, I may bump this up to a low confidence pick, but I can’t see myself betting the Broncos as 10-point favorites in any circumstance this week.

Denver Broncos 31 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -10

Confidence: None

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-1)

In my season preview, I thought the Lions could take a step forward this season and would be competitive in most of their games, but I based that on the assumption that they would have better health on the offensive line, which had the potential to be one of the best offensive lines in the league if healthy. However, the Lions are going to be without at least a pair of offensive line starters in this game, right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai and center Frank Ragnow, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman and arguably the best player in the league at his position. 

They’re also without Vaitai’s likely replacement Tommy Kraemer, who is also injured, while left guard Jonah Jackson seems to be on the wrong side of questionable after not practicing at all on Thursday and Friday with a hand injury. The Lions still have arguably the worst defense in the league, so they will need their offense to be at least above average to be a competitive team and, even though they had some offensive success in week one, it’s hard to see that continuing with their offensive line in its current state. Despite that, the Lions are still slight favorites at home over the Commanders, with this line at Detroit -1.5. 

Washington’s defense is without probably its best player Chase Young due to injury, but they will likely get safety Kamren Curl back this week after he missed week one and they’re still a solid unit even without Young, while their offense should be significantly improved this season, with upgrades at quarterback and wide receiver and an offensive line that should be healthier. The Commanders should be favored here on the road against this banged up Lions squad and my numbers suggest they should be favored by close to a full field goal, so we’re getting good enough line value with them at +1.5 for the Commanders to be worth betting. The money line is also a great value at +105.

Washington Commanders 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

The Colts opened the season with a tie in Houston. They fared well in more predictive stats like yards per play differential (+1.35) and first down rate differential (+8.09%), playing to a tie primarily because of special teams and turnovers, which are significantly less predictive, but it was still an underwhelming performance against a Texans team that still figures to be one of the worst in the league and it’s likely a sign of things to come for a team which lost a pair of starting offensive linemen this off-season and which is playing without top defensive player Shaq Leonard, who remains out after off-season back surgery.

This week, the Colts head to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team which is underwhelming, but which is also a step up in competition from the Texans. The Jaguars lost their first game of the season in Washington, but won the first down rate (+0.20%) and yards per play (+0.61) battle in a 6-point loss in which they lost the turnover battle by two. I think the Jaguars are a little too competitive of a team for the Colts to be getting more than a field goal on the road against them and the Colts are in a tough spot having played to a tie last week, with teams covering at just a 43.3% rate after a tie all-time, which drops at 31.2% on the road. There isn’t quite enough here for the Jaguars to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and, if this line stays put and injured Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman ends up not playing, I may consider a bet on Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Low