Month: December 2022

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

A week ago on the early line, the Chiefs were favored by a field goal in Cincinnati, but this line has since fallen down to two, a significant shift, given that one in six games are decided by three points exactly. That line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and a strange one at that, with both the Bengals and Chiefs both barely covering the spread last week, hardly results that would seem to result in a line movement. 

I don’t think the line should have moved, especially since a Kansas City win by a field goal seems like the single most likely outcome of this game, with the Chiefs being the better team and a field goal deciding about 1 out of every 6 games. The Bengals are better than their record, with three of their four losses coming by three points or fewer and a +54 point differential that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still significantly behind the Chiefs in point differential (+83) and in schedule adjusted efficiency, with the 2nd ranked Chiefs holding a 4-point edge over the 6th ranked Bengals. 

The Bengals are getting healthier, with stud interior defender DJ Reader returning a few weeks ago and top wide receiver JaMarr Chase expected back this week, but the Chiefs are about as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season and also hold a 6-point edge in my roster rankings over the Bengals. There’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, but we’re getting at least some line value with them and they seem like the better pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for me. Making it even tougher, there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because we’re technically getting some line value with them, but this 1-point spread doesn’t give us much room to work with and the most likely outcome of this game might be a push.

Detroit Lions 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 33

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +1

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line is at Dallas -10.5, which is right where my calculated line has it, favoring the Colts just slightly against the spread at this number, and there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Colts purely for pick ‘em purposes, hoping they can at least get a backdoor cover against a big spread, but I can’t be at all confident in either side in this one.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +10.5

Confidence: None

Washington Commanders at New York Giants: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)

This is one of the least interesting games to me from an against the spread perspective this week because this line, favoring the visiting Commanders by two points, is right about where it should be and there are no situational trends affecting the game. The Giants are not as good as their 7-4 record, but the public and oddsmakers seem to know that, resulting in this line being right where it should be. My calculated line says the Giants are the slightly better pick at this number, but there’s not nearly enough here to be confident in either side.

Washington Commanders 21 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +2

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

The Vikings are 9-2, but they have needed an 8-0 record in one score games to get there and they have just a +5 point differential. However, this seems to be well known, as they are only 3-point home favorites against the Jets. The Jets have a significantly better point differential (+34), but they’ve been much more defensive oriented (12th in schedule adjusted efficiency), while the Vikings have been more offensive oriented (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency), which tends to be more predictive of future success, and the Vikings hold the edge in my roster rankings as well. If anything, we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Vikings at -3, so they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes, even if there’s not enough here for the Vikings to be worth betting.

Minnesota Vikings 23 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

I think both of these teams are underrated, so I’m disappointed they’re playing each other, as there isn’t an obvious side to pick in this one. The Steelers are just 4-7, but they’ve arguably faced the toughest schedule in the league, with eight of their eleven games being against teams that are currently .500 or better, with two of the exceptions being the Browns and Saints, who are both better than their records would indicate. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Steelers rank 18th, about one point below average, and that’s despite the fact that they have been without their top defender TJ Watt for much of the season. He returned a few weeks ago, giving them a big boost on that side of the ball.

The Falcons, meanwhile, actually rank 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about one point above average and two points ahead of the Steelers. My roster rankings suggest the Falcons have overperformed their talent level, but they still are only about a point behind the Steelers in my roster rankings. My calculated line gives the home team Falcons a slightly better chance to win this game and, as a result, cover this even spread than the Steelers, but only barely, so this is one of my lowest confidence picks.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta PK

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Dolphins have a 8-3 record, among the best in the league, but they’re even better than that, as they’ve won all eight games started and finished by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, they are 4-point underdogs this week in San Francisco. The 49ers are one of the better teams in the league, ranking 5th in point differential (+76) and 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency (about 5 points above average) and they are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season, but it’s hard to justify them being favored by this many points against a team as good as the Dolphins.

There’s not quite enough here for the Dolphins to be worth betting and they will be without talented left tackle Terron Armstead, but the 49ers could be without one of their best offensive playmakers Deebo Samuel and, overall, my calculated line has the 49ers as favored by a field goal at most, which is significant line value, given that about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly, so the Dolphins should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, even if they’re not quite bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)

Before the season, I thought the Browns had the potential to be the best team in the league with Deshaun Watson, adding an elite quarterback to one of the more talented rosters in the league, but I’m not sure if the latter is true anymore. Watson will make his debut this week and should further boost an offense that ranks 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but the Browns’ defense has underperformed significantly, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency, in part due to injuries to their two best linebackers Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. The Browns have been better than their 4-7 record suggests, with four of their seven losses coming by three points or fewer and a -23 point differential, but they also don’t seem like they’re truly an elite quarterback away from being an elite team.

It’s also tough to be confident in how Watson will play in his first game with his new team, close to two full years since his last meaningful action. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2020 and is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but there’s uncertainty with him returning to the game after an extended absence, in a new system with new teammates. It helps that he’ll make his return against a Texans team that looks like the worst in the league, especially now with the horrendous Kyle Allen under center, and my calculated line has the Browns favored by 10, giving us some line value with the Browns at -7, but there’s too much uncertainty here for the Browns to be worth a bet.

Cleveland Browns 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)

The Packers are 4-8, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last in efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 30th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in the NFL in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about two points below average.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-6 with a -44 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Given that, I am tempted to go against them on the road this week in Chicago as 3.5-point favorites, a bigger number than you might realize, with 1 in 4 games being decided by a field goal or less, including 1 in 6 by exactly a field goal.

However, the Bears are just too banged up to take this week unless we were getting a bigger number. They’ll get Justin Fields back from a one-game absence this week and he elevates their offense significantly, but he’ll be missing his top wide receiver Darnell Mooney for the first time this season, while their defense, which has been horrendous since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, will be without their two starting safeties Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson due to injury, a big absence as they were two of their better players that side of the ball. I can’t take the Packers with any confidence, but they still seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes against a skeleton crew Bears team.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)

The Chargers are 6-5, but their six wins have come by a combined 24 points, while their five losses have come by a combined 54 points, giving them a point differential of -30. They’re even worse in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th in the NFL, about four points below average, which is more predictive than point differential. They got talented wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury a couple weeks ago, but they still remain without their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams, stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, talented starting center Corey Linsley, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy.

The Raiders are missing a pair of key offensive playmakers, tight end Darren Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfroe, but their defense gets back their top cornerback Nate Hobbs from a 6-game absence this week, a big boost for a unit that got a big boost a few weeks ago when top linebacker Denzel Perryman returned after missing 3 games. They also have a better point differential (-11) than the Chargers, despite being a couple games behind them in the standings. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Raiders rank 20th, 2.5 points above the Chargers, and they have a 5-point edge over the Chargers in my roster rankings as well.

Despite that, the Raiders are only 1-point favorites at home. My calculated line suggests they should be favored by 4, so we’re getting great line value with them at -1. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Raiders are coming off of back-to-back overtime games, a spot in which teams cover at just a 40.6% rate all-time, but that’s over a sample size of just 33 games, so it’s not enough to convince me not to bet on the Raiders at least somewhat. This isn’t a big play, but the Raiders are still worth a bet.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -1

Confidence: Medium