Quarterback

Two off-seasons ago, the Saints lost quarterback Drew Brees to retirement, ending an era of Hall of Fame caliber quarterback play under center. The Saints had been aggressive with the salary cap for years to try to maximize their championship window before Brees called it quits and, while it didn’t result in a Super Bowl victory, it did result in the Saints having the NFL’s best record across the final four seasons of Brees’ career at 49-15. When Brees retired, it seemed likely that the Saints would go through a full rebuild to try to clear up cap space long-term to try to be competitive again in a couple years. Instead, however, they have doubled down on most of their existing roster, even without Brees, continuing to aggressively borrow against the future cap, to the point where the Saints are already about 77 million above next year’s cap.

This off-season, part of the Saints’ aggressive strategy included adding a new quarterback on a big contract, signing top free agent quarterback Derek Carr to a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal that makes him the 12th highest paid quarterback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. Carr is not a bad starting quarterback, but it’s hard to justify him being paid at that level and I’m not even sure he’s a significant upgrade over the Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton combination the Saints had last season, which had a combined QB rating of 93.6, higher than Carr’s career average of 91.8 and significantly higher than the 86.3 Carr had last season. 

Dalton in particular started most of the games for the Saints last season (14) and played at a pretty high level, with a 95.2 QB rating and a 82.1 PFF grade, a grade higher than Carr has had in all but two of his ten seasons in the league. Carr could still be an upgrade under center for the Saints, but probably not by a significant enough amount to justify the huge payday he got, which the Saints could have used on the rest of this roster or used to help their long-term financial situation. 

Dalton is gone, but Winston remains with the team on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and will settle in as the backup, after an unsuccessful attempt to establish himself as the starter over the past two seasons. Injuries were a big part of the problem, as he made just 10 starts total, but Dalton ultimately outplayed him last season to keep the job after Winston was healthy again and Winston has just a 87.5 career QB rating overall, so it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. He’ll be one of the better backups in the league though and, while Carr is overpaid, he’s not a bad starting option, so this is at least a decent quarterback room, with 4th round pick Jake Haener also added this off-season as a potential long-term backup option.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One player the Saints could have moved on from this off-season was wide receiver Michael Thomas, but the Saints opted to bring him back on a reduced, but fully guaranteed 1-year, 10 million contract. Thomas had previously been on a 5-year, 96.25 million dollar deal that began during the 2020 season, after the end of the 2016 2nd round pick’s rookie contract, but because of injuries Thomas has played just ten games in the three seasons since the extension began, with just three of those games coming in the past two seasons, and has been a shelf of his former self even when he has played, with just 56 catches for 609 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 10 games. That’s not terrible, but this coming is from a player who averaged a 118/1378/8 slash line per season in his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 149/1725/9 in 2019, his last healthy season. 

Thomas is now going into his age 30 season with his last healthy season being four years ago, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, especially without Drew Brees to throw him the ball, but he still could be a useful pass catcher for this offense if healthy. The Saints won’t need him to be their #1 receiver anymore anyway, having found a new one in the first round of last year’s draft, where they took wide receiver Chris Olave, whose 72/1042/4 slash line as a rookie made him a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Olave was even better than that suggests, as he wasn’t even an every down player, seeing just 607 snaps in 15 games (40.5 snaps per game). Olave was very efficient with the limited playing time he did get, as his 2.42 yards per route run average ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, while his 82.5 PFF grade ranked 14th. Olave should play a bigger role in year two and become even more productive as a result. He has a great chance to take a step forward and prove himself as one of the better wide receivers in the league in year two and beyond.

Olave’s performance isn’t that surprising considering where the Saints drafted him, but they also got a surprisingly impressive rookie year performance from undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed was originally brought in to be a return man, but he ended up playing 298 snaps on offense and showed his explosiveness as a pass catcher, with a 28/488/2 slash line despite minimal playing time, averaging 2.59 yards per route run on the season, as well as 17.4 yards per catch, 14.4 yards per target, and 6.2 yards per catch after catch. He also showed his abilities in the open field on the ground with 57 yards and a touchdown on four carries. 

Of the snaps Shaheed played, 253 of them came in week 11 or later as he started to get more significant playing time down the stretch and, overall, he finished with a 80.8 overall grade on PFF, impressive even if it was in limited action. In the 7 games he played in week 11 or later, Shaheed had a 23/384/1 slash line, good for 56/933/2 extrapolated across 17 games, despite still only being a part-time player (36.1 snaps per game played). 

The Saints didn’t bring back Jarvis Landry (301 snaps) and Marquez Callaway (397 snaps) this off-season, so Shaheed doesn’t have much competition for the #3 wide receiver job outside of holdover Tre’Quan Smith (403 snaps), who will likely continue to have at least some role, but who probably will be behind Shaheed on the depth chart. Shaheed could prove to be a fluke that doesn’t translate to a larger role, but, even as a recent undrafted free agent, he has a lot of potential. 

Smith, on the other hand, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and flashed some potential as a rookie, with 1.34 yards per route run, but that fell to 0.82 and 1.12 the next two seasons and, while it increased to 1.25 in 2021 and a career best 1.56 last season, he never became more than a part-time player (career high 672 snaps in 2020) and that will likely remain the case in 2023, as Shaheed is a much higher upside option. Smith is still only going into his age 27 season and isn’t a bad 4th receiver and reserve option, but he’s unlikely to be that productive even if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart and give him an opportunity to play more.

The Saints got decent production from their tight ends last season, with Adam Trautman averaging 1.49 yards per route run and Juwan Johnson averaging 1.39 yards per route run. Johnson did it in a much bigger passing game role, playing 647 snaps total to Trautman’s 519, with the majority of Trautman’s snaps coming as a blocker in run situations. Johnson actually finished the season second on the team in receiving with a 42/508/7 slash line, without a consistent #2 wide receiver all season, while Trautman finished at just 18/207/1.

Trautman was traded to the Broncos for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will essentially be replaced by free agent addition Foster Moreau, who comes over from the Raiders on a 3-year, 12.234 million dollar deal. Moreau essentially played a starter’s snap total in each of the past two seasons, with 749 in 2021 and 745 last season, but he averaged just 1.19 yards per route run and a 32/397/3 slash line per season, while posting overall grades of 58.8 and 61.1 on PFF. The 2019 4th round pick flashed potential early in his career, with grades of 70.8 and 67.2 in his first two seasons in the league, as well an average of 1.41 yards per route run, but that came on snap totals of just 373 and 257 respectively and he hasn’t been able to translate to that a larger role. 

I would expect that to continue in New Orleans, though he could see a smaller snap count, more in line with Trautman’s old role as a blocking specialist, with Johnson playing well enough last season to remain the top pass catching tight end. Johnson is a one-year wonder coming off of a career year though, as the 2020 undrafted free agent averaged just 0.81 yards per route run in the first two seasons of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2023, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner and remained a decent pass catching tight end, one who holds his own as a run blocker as well.

The Saints also have Taysom Hill, who is technically listed as a tight end, but most frequently lined up as a wildcat quarterback last season, playing quarterback on 148 of 324 snaps, as opposed to just 51 as an inline tight end. Hill seldom threw the ball, with just 19 pass attempts, but he was very effective in his limited action with 13 completions for 240 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (146.3 QB rating), while showing his effectiveness in the open field with a 5.99 YPC average and a team leading 7 touchdowns on 96 carries.

In fact, the aspects of the game in which Hill most struggled were with traditional tight end duties, as he caught just nine passes and averaged just 0.62 yards per route run, while struggling to block as a 6-2 225 converted quarterback. That’s nothing new for Hill, who has been the ultimate gadget player in his career. He has averaged just 1.19 yards per route run for his career, while consistently struggling as a blocker, but he has also averaged 5.55 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 317 carries and has a career QB rating of 88.7, with just nine starts as an actual quarterback in his career. 

Hill is now going into his age 33 season and could start to decline a little bit, but he should play his usual role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being effective in the aspects in which he has been effective throughout his career, even if he declines a little bit. He won’t have a huge role in the passing game in a group that has a couple capable tight ends, as well as a top-3 wide receiver group that has the upside to be among the best in the league, though Shaheed and Thomas both come with a lot of downside as well, given Shaheed’s inexperience and Thomas’ injury history.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back Alvin Kamara also played a big role in the passing game last season, finishing with a 57/490/2 slash line and averaging 1.66 yards per route down, both of which were third on the team. Kamara is still a useful pass catcher, but he was definitely a lot more productive when he played with Drew Brees, as he averaged a 82/706/4 slash line per season and 2.15 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league with Brees, as opposed to 52/465/4 and 1.64 yards per route run over the past two seasons on average. 

Kamara has also seen his yards per carry average drop from 4.97 in his first four seasons in the league to just 3.88 over the past two seasons, in part due to having less room to run without a feared passing game taking pressure off him and in part due to having to carry the ball more often and wearing down, averaging 232 carries per season and 16.5 carries per game, as opposed to 168 carries per season and 11.2 carries per game in his first four seasons in the league. This off-season, the Saints tried to rectify the problem of overloading Kamara by signing Jamaal Williams to a not insignificant contract of 12 million over 3 years, as well as using a 3rd round pick on TCU’s Kendre Miller. 

In addition to keeping Kamara fresher, the Saints likely made those additions in part because Kamara is facing a potential suspension of up to six games for an off the field issue, which could take place during the 2023 season, depending on the timing of his legal case. However, Williams and Miller will still help accomplish the goal of keeping Kamara fresher even when he does play, which should make him more efficient, still only in his age 28 season. Outside of Taysom Hill’s production, the Saints actually struggled on the ground last season, with #2 running back Mark Ingram totaling a YPC average of 3.76 on 62 carries that was even lower than Kamara’s 4.02 YPC average. With Williams and Miller being added, I would expect their running backs to be more effective this season than a year ago, even if Kamara gets suspended and misses significant action.

Williams actually led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 17, though he benefited from a great offensive line with the Lions and a league leading 41 carries inside the 10-yard line, which he took for 13 touchdowns. Still, Williams was effective in his own right, as he ranked 11th in carry success rate with 54%, after ranking 7th (53%), 6th (57%), and 18th (54%) in the previous three seasons. He also received a grade of 73.4 from PFF, his 4th straight season over 69. Even if he’s a one-year wonder in terms of posting the touchdown total he had last season (13 career touchdowns in five seasons in the league prior to last year), he’s proven himself as a consistently reliable between the tackles runner who can keep your offense on schedule and be effective in the red zone. 

Williams is a good complement for the speedier Alvin Kamara and could see a significant role as a change of pace back and touchdown vulture, though Kamara figures to remain the primary passing down back, with Williams averaging just 1.07 yards per route run for his career. Miller, meanwhile, will likely be the third back and see minimal action unless one of the two running backs ahead of him on the depth chart are out of action, but that could easily be the case given Kamara’s legal situation, so Miller could easily find himself in a role splitting playing time with Williams for a stretch this season. This is a much deeper backfield than a year ago, which makes this position group better as a whole than a year ago, even with feature back Kamara possibly suspended for a significant amount of time.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

There isn’t much that changes on the offensive line this season for the Saints, who bring back all six offensive linemen who started at least six games upfront for them last season. There will likely be one difference though, as left tackle James Hurst, who played 973 snaps and started 16 games last season, will likely be replaced in the starting lineup by Trevor Penning, who played just 124 snaps and started just one game. That’s because Penning was a first round pick a year ago and he would have been a starter during his rookie season if he hadn’t gotten hurt before the season started. Hurst wasn’t bad in his absence, with a 63.2 PFF grade, but Penning flashed a lot of potential with a 73.6 PFF grade in limited action and could easily prove to be a significant upgrade, assuming the most likely scenario where he wins the job this off-season.

Hurst, meanwhile, will likely be a reserve, a role he could be very valuable in, having received a PFF grade higher than 60 in five straight seasons, while making 48 starts over that 5-year stretch, primarily at tackle, but also showing the ability to kick inside to guard in a pinch if needed. Hurst is now going into his age 32 season and has maxed out at 70.1 on PFF in nine seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have a huge upside and could easily start declining soon, but he’s more than qualified to be the first offensive linemen off the bench, especially when you consider his versatility.

Another difference the Saints are hoping for this season is better health on the interior of their offensive line and subsequently fewer starts made by reserve Calvin Throckmorton, who made six starts last season and struggled mightily with a 38.4 PFF grade. Josh Andrews also made five starts on the interior and struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade, before not being brought back this off-season, unlike Throckmorton, who returns as the Saints’ top interior reserve option, despite not only struggling mightily last season, but also in 2021, when he had a 42.4 PFF grade in the only other playing time of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career.

Left guard Andrus Peat missed the most time of the Saints’ interior offensive linemen last season, limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, which is nothing new for the 8-year veteran, who has missed 35 games total in his career, since being selected in the first round in 2015. Peat showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 61.0, 71.5, and 68.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in four of the previous five seasons, including a 50.6 in 2022, as injuries have seemingly sapped his abilities. Now going into his age 30 season, I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back, so he should continue struggling, in addition to likely missing more time with injury.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is also a former first round pick and he has also struggled in recent seasons, as the 2020 24th overall pick has received 58.6, 57.6, and 56.6 grades from PFF in three seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 24 season and could still take a step forward, but even if he does, it’s unlikely he’s more than a marginal starter. That would still be an upgrade on what he’s been thus far in his career, which is mostly a liability.

Center Erik McCoy is the best of the Saints’ interior offensive line, though he’s not without his own concerns. He only had a 61.2 PFF grade last season, the worst of his 4-year career and, in fact, McCoy has gotten worse in every season of his career, from 76.2 as a rookie to 70.1 in his second season to 63.6 in 2021, before his career worst year in 2022. Injuries have been part of the problem in the past two seasons though (9 games missed) and, only going into his age 26 season, the former second round pick has some bounce back potential if he’s healthy. He should remain at least a capable starting center, but he has the upside to be more if he’s at his best. 

The best player on this offensive line is right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who led the group with a 77.9 PFF rating in 16 starts last season. That was actually a down year for Ramczyk, who had previously finished above 80 on PFF in each of his previous five seasons in the league, after being selected in the first round by the Saints in 2017. Ramczyk is still only going into his age 29 season with minimal injury history (nine games missed in his career), so he has a good chance to get back into that 80 range. He’s one of the best right tackles in the league and elevates an offensive line that has promise at left tackle and center as well, but a likely weakness at both guard spots.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Even with the Saints’ aggressive cap strategy, they couldn’t keep all of their key players this off-season, particularly at the interior defender position, where the Saints didn’t bring back their top-3 players in terms of snaps played from a year ago, David Onyemata (682 snaps), Shy Tuttle (557 snaps), and Kentavius Street (518 snaps). Street struggled mightily with a 49.2 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed, but Tuttle was a solid run defender in base packages (67.1 PFF grade against the run), while Onyemata was an effective pass rusher (66.9 PFF grade as a pass rusher, 9.1% pressure rate) and the Saints didn’t do a good job of replacing the departed interior defenders.

The Saints used the 29th overall pick on Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, who has a lot of upside and will likely be forced into a significant role right away as a rookie, but he figures to have at least some growing pains in year one. The Saints also signed veterans Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to 3-year deals worth 12.3 million and 15 million respectively, but both are underwhelming options. Saunders was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and barely played in his first three seasons, primarily due to injuries, playing just 521 mostly nondescript snaps total in 22 games across those three seasons combined. 

Saunders finally stayed healthy for 2023, playing in 16 games and seeing a career high 421 snaps as a rotational player, but was only alright with a 60.2 PFF grade in his limited role. Saunders may still have some untapped upside if he can continue staying healthy, but he’s already in his age 27 season and I wouldn’t expect too much more from him in 2023, even assuming he can play close to a full season for just the second time in his career.

Shepherd, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has mostly been a rotational player in his career, averaging 364 snaps per season and receiving mostly middling grades from PFF. Now in his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to get any better and could easily start to decline and struggle even in a rotational role. The Saints also still have top holdover interior defender Malcolm Roach, but the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade on 316 snaps last season and has never been any better than that, playing just 427 snaps prior to last season and never receiving a grade higher than 50 from PFF. 

Even if it’s as a deep reserve, Roach figures to still have somewhat of a role in this position group and if there are any injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he figures to be forced into a significant role, with the only other interior defender options currently on the roster being undrafted rookies. The Saints will be counting on the rookie Bresee to carry an otherwise very underwhelming position group and, while Bresee has a lot of upside long-term, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was unable to significantly elevate this position group by himself as a rookie.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The Saints didn’t lose as much at the edge defender position this off-season as they did on the interior, but they didn’t re-sign free agent Marcus Davenport. Davenport was mostly a rotational player with 490 snaps played in 15 games, but he was an effective one, with a 12.1% pressure rate, solid run defense, and a 76.8 overall grade from PFF. To replace him, the Saints used a second round pick in this year’s draft on Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey and they expect to get more from Payton Turner, also a recent high draft pick (28th overall in 2021), who was limited to 171 snaps in 8 games last season by injury. Those two young players will compete for playing time with holdovers Carl Granderson (480 snaps) and Tanoh Kpassagnon (356 snaps), with Cameron Jordan (790 snaps) likely leading the way once again, even going into his age 34 season.

Jordan has had a Hall of Fame caliber career, missing just two games in 12 seasons in the league, totaling 115.5 sacks, 113 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate, playing the run at a high level and finishing above 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, but he showed some signs of decline last season. For him, that meant he still received a 74.5 grade from PFF, so he was still an above average starter in an every down role, but that was his lowest PFF grade since 2014 and his lowest snap total since his rookie season in 2011. He also particularly declined as a pass rusher, still playing the run at a high level, but managing just a 7.9% pressure rate, his lowest since 2012. He could remain an above average every down player in 2023, but he could easily decline further and his best days are almost definitely behind him. 

Jordan will probably remain their best edge defender, but only because none of their other options have that high of an upside. Carl Granderson received a 80.4 grade from PFF last season, but it came in a rotational role (480 snaps) and the 2019 undrafted free agent had never received a grade higher than 68.0 (2020) for a season from PFF prior to last season, while his previous career high in snaps was 448 in a 2021 season in which he received just a 63.2 grade from PFF. He could remain a high level rotational player, but he could easily decline a little and, even if he doesn’t, he’s still a projection to a larger role who might not play at the same level if forced into a larger role.

Kpassagnon has also mostly been a rotational player in his career and he’s also never been as good as Granderson was last season, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons. Payton Turner should theoretically have a high upside because of where he was drafted, but he’s played just 315 nondescript snaps in 13 games thus far in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. He figures to play more in 2023 by default, assuming he’s somewhat healthy, but it’s unclear if he’ll show why he was a high draft pick in the first place. With Jordan, Granderson, Kpassagnon, Turner, and the rookie Foskey, the Saints have options at the edge defender position, but Jordan appears to be on the decline, while the rest of the bunch have never shown themselves as reliable NFL starters, so this group has a pretty low floor, in addition to having a relatively high ceiling.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Saints also lost linebacker Kaden Elliss this off-season, a big loss as he was PFF’s 6th ranked off ball linebacker with a 81.5 grade on 632 snaps last season, playing well against the run and the pass, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, both as a blitzer and as a sub package edge defender, totaling 7 sacks (2nd most on the team), 4 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in a limited pass rush role. Making matters worse, their other top linebacker Demario Davis, who ranked 5th among off ball linebackers with a 82.7 PFF grade on 1,132 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 34 season and could start to decline significantly. 

Like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis has been a consistently high level linebacker for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons, while playing 63.7 snaps per game in 97 of a possible 98 games over that stretch, and, like Jordan, it would be a big loss for this defense is Davis was no longer able to play at his usual level. Even if he declines from his usual dominant self, he still has a good chance to remain an above average every down linebacker, but his best days are probably behind him at this point of his career and a big dropoff from him would have big repercussions for this defense.

With Elliss gone and Davis aging, the Saints will need more out of third year linebacker Pete Werner. Originally a second round pick in 2021, Werner flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 79.9 PFF grade, but that came on 394 snaps in 14 games (28.1 snaps per game). In 2022, he wasn’t bad, but he couldn’t continue that high level of play into a bigger role, playing 49.7 snaps per game and finishing with a 64.4 grade on PFF, significantly down from his rookie season, while missing five games due to injury. Werner doesn’t have anyone blocking him from an every down role in his third season in the league in 2023 and figures to play even more snaps per game than he did a year ago. Only going into his age 24 season, he has the talent and upside to be effective in that role, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints don’t have much depth at the linebacker position, with 2020 3rd round pick Zach Baun, a career reserve and special teamer, likely to be the top reserve, mostly by virtue of his draft status and the Saints’ lack of competition, as he’s been pretty mediocre in just 361 career snaps in three seasons in the league and is no guarantee to be any better in 2023, already in his age 27 season. Baun won’t have to play a big role as the third linebacker in this defense, but the Saints play a 4-3 base defense, so he will have to see at least some action in base packages and he would be forced into a much bigger role if either Davis or Werner got hurt. Baun is an uninspiring option, but he’s the only realistic candidate to be the third linebacker in a very thin position group. This is still a solid group overall, but they will miss free agent departure Kaden Elliss and they would be in a lot of trouble if the aging Demario Davis got hurt or declined significantly.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback was the Saints’ biggest weakness on defense last season, as they had five cornerbacks play at least 350 snaps and the only one to finish above 60 on PFF was top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who only had a 64.7 grade on 415 snaps in 7 games in an injury plagued season. The Saints didn’t make any major additions at the position this off-season, so they will be hoping for a healthier year from Lattimore and better play from the rest of the bunch. Paulson Adebo (814 snaps), Alontae Taylor (663 snaps), and Bradley Roby (628 snaps) were their top-3 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season and all three return to the team in 2023 and have the potential to be better this season than they were a year ago.

Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 60.3 PFF grade on 851 snaps as a rookie, but he missed the start of the 2022 season with injury and never seemed to be healthy, leading to a 49.1 PFF grade for his second season in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Adebo could be a lot better in his third season in the league if he’s healthy and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if this season ended up being the best yet of his young career. Taylor is also young, going in the second round in 2022, and has a good chance in year two to improve on the 54.5 PFF grade he had last season, when he missed six games with injury and may have never really been healthy all year.

Roby, on the other hand, is a veteran, going into his 10th season in the league. He used to be a solid starter, with PFF grade above 60 in seven of his first eight seasons in the league prior to last season, with three seasons over 70. However, he fell all the way to 45.4 in his 9th season in the league 2022, while being limited to 632 snaps in 13 games by injury. Roby probably won’t be as bad in 2023, but that will probably be by default, as Roby is now entering his age 31 season and his best days are probably behind him as a result. He could easily continue being a liability even if he’s better than a year ago. He should start the season as a reserve behind young cornerbacks Taylor and Adebo, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Lattimore was disappointing by his standards last season even when on the field and, only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back, with three seasons over 70 in six years in the league. Durability has always been a concern for him though, as he’s missed 18 games total in his career, an average of three per season, while playing every game just once, so there’s a good chance he misses at least some time again this year. However, he should still be on the field significantly more than a year ago and he has a good chance to be more effective as well. He leads a cornerback group that has a lot of question marks behind him.

Things are better at safety where Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu were an above average safety duo a year ago and both return for 2023, heading into the 2nd year of 3-year contracts worth 22.5 million and 28.3 million respectively that the Saints signed them to as free agents last off-season. Mathieu was the better of the two in their first season in New Orleans, finishing as PFF’s 6th ranked safety with a 81.2 grade, the highest grade he’s had in a season since 2015 and his 6th season graded 70 or higher in 10 seasons in the league. Mathieu is going into his age 31 season and it’s probably unlikely he’ll repeat one of the best seasons of his career again in 2023, but he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive drop off.

Maye, meanwhile, finished last season with a 71.8 grade from PFF. He did miss seven games with injury, limiting him to 669 snaps total, but, all in all, the Saints have to be somewhat happy with Maye’s first year in New Orleans, considering he was coming off of a torn achilles that cost him most of the 2021 season. Maye only had a 55.9 PFF grade in 2021 even before the injury, but he had been over 70 in the previous three seasons from 2018-2020, including two seasons over 80, so it’s not a big surprise to see him have success last season even after the injury. Maye is only going into his age 29 season and, now another year removed from the injury, he could easily be even better this season. Durability remains a concern, with 28 games missed in six seasons in the league, but he’s also played every game in three of six seasons. 

The Saints will need Maye and Mathieu to stay healthy this season, not only because they are one of the better safety duos in the league when healthy, but also because they don’t have the depth options they had at the position last season with Justin Evans (391 snaps), PJ Williams (298 snaps), and Daniel Sorensen (166 snaps) all no longer with the team. They were all middling at best in their limited action, but the Saints didn’t do much to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Minnesota’s Jordan Howden. 

Even as a rookie, Howden compete for a reserve role with career special teamer JT Gray, who has played just 111 defensive snaps since going undrafted in 2018, and Johnathan Abram, a former first round pick bust of the Raiders, who has 36 career starts in four seasons with the league, but has never finished above 60 on PFF and is already on his 4th team in his career. Depth is a concern at safety, while their cornerback depth chart is full of question marks, but there are some proven players in this secondary and other players with the upside to take a step forward.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Saints weren’t a bad team last season, finishing 19th in DVOA, just slightly below average, but new quarterback Derek Carr isn’t going to give them a significant enough boost to make them a contender, especially when you consider the off-season losses they had on defense. Their offense should be better this year, not just because of Carr, but because they have better running back depth and should be healthier overall, after the 7th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense last season. 

However, their defense had an ordinary amount of injuries a year ago and is significantly less talented now than last season, especially if aging stars Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan decline significantly. Because of that, they are likely to decline on that side of the ball, probably about as much as their offense can be expected to improve. The Saints could still win the weak NFC South by default, but they won’t be true contenders and they have a lot of cap problems long-term after keeping this aging core together for so long, and then splurging on Carr this off-season, even though he’s unlikely to move the needle under center. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in NFC South