Quarterback

The Cardinals are just a season removed from a post-season appearance, securing a wild card spot in 2021 with a final record of 11-6. However, they were never as good as their record suggested that year, benefiting significantly from a +12 turnover margin (4th best in the NFL), which is not predictive year-to-year, and ranking just 15th in DVOA. That suggested the Cardinals would decline in the win column in 2022, especially when you also take into account all of the Cardinals’ off-season losses and the fact that many of their key players were on the wrong side of 30 and, as a result, were strong candidates to decline significantly. However, things were even worse than expected for the Cardinals last season, as they had a rash of injuries, 4th most in the league in terms of adjusted games lost, leading to the Cardinals being one of the worst teams in the league, finishing at 4-13 and ranking 29th in DVOA.

The Cardinals will probably be healthier this season in terms of the overall amount of games lost to injury, but they were a mediocre team that was likely to decline significantly last season even before all of the injury absences, they suffered even more personnel losses this off-season, and several of their key injured players from a year ago could miss the start of the season or not be at 100% in their first season back, most notably Kyler Murray, who went down with a torn ACL in week 14, putting him up against the clock to return for week 1, which will be less than 9 months after the injury.

For the Cardinals to have any chance of being remotely competitive this season, they will need Murray to return early in the season and not be limited, but that seems unlikely, especially considering how much he depends on his athleticism and running ability, which might not return to full strength right away. On top of that, even before the injury last season, Murray was not at his best, finishing with a 67.1 PFF grade that was his lowest since his rookie season in 2019, after back-to-back seasons over 80 in 2020 (82.8) and 2021 (84.0). 

After completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions with 1242 yards and 16 touchdowns on 221 carries (5.62 YPC) in 2020 and 2021 combined, Murray saw those numbers drop to 66.4% completion, 6.07 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions with 418 yards and 3 touchdowns on 67 carries (6.24 YPC) in 2022. Those big seasons in 2020 and 2021 led to the Cardinals extending Murray last off-season on a 5-year, 230.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary. 

Murray is still only in his age 26 season and could bounce back to his best form someday and be worth that extension, which doesn’t even technically start until next season, but it seems unlikely that bounce back will happen this season, a big problem for a team that has had a lot of trouble keeping talent around Murray and his big salary. The Cardinals also didn’t really do much to address the backup quarterback position, even with Murray likely to miss at least some time early in the year, only adding veteran journeyman Jeff Driskel and 5th round rookie Clayton Tune to compete with incumbent backups Colt McCoy and David Blough.

McCoy is likely to stay in the primary backup role, which he’s served in the past two seasons as well. He was impressive with a 101.4 QB rating on 99 attempts as Murray’s backup in 2021, but that fell to a 76.6 QB rating on 132 attempts in 2022 and he now heads into his age 37 season with a career QB rating of 79.9 on 1,220 attempts (36 starts). He’s not a bad backup and he’s probably the best option the Cardinals have, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action again. 

Driskel and Blough, meanwhile, have career QB ratings of 80.5 on 365 pass attempts and 67.1 on 242 pass attempts respectively, while Tune would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant rookie year action. It will most likely be McCoy, but whoever starts in Murray’s absence early in the year is likely to struggle, and then when Murray returns he is unlikely to be at his best. Murray has a high upside, but this isn’t an enviable quarterback situation at the moment.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Probably the Cardinals’ biggest off-season loss was top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He only played in 9 games last season due to suspension, but averaged 1.98 yards per route run and had a 64/717/3 slash line that extrapolated to 121/1354/6 over 17 games. Despite that, it made some sense for the rebuilding Cardinals to look into moving Hopkins this off-season, as he was owed 19.45 million for his age 31 season in 2023, but it was a surprise that the Cardinals couldn’t get anything for him in a trade and it seems like their decision to cut him just to get out of his salary had more to do with Hopkins not wanting to be there anymore than it did with the Cardinals feeling it was in the best interest of their football team to move on from him.

The Cardinals also lost veteran AJ Green to retirement this off-season and, while he only played 554 snaps and averaged just 0.65 yards per route run, his departure just leaves the Cardinals even thinner at the wide receiver position. Without Hopkins and Green, the Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from Marquise Brown (782 snaps in 12 games) and Rondale Moore (458 snaps in 8 games), while Greg Dotrch (512 snaps in 16 games) competes with 3rd round rookie Michael Wilson for the 3rd receiver job.

The Cardinals surrendered a first round pick to acquire Brown last off-season, swapping the 23rd pick to Baltimore for Brown and the 100th pick, implying they view him as a #1 wide receiver, but he hasn’t consistently shown that type of ability in four seasons in the league. He has averaged just 1.63 yards per route run, with his season high of 1.81 yards per route run coming back in his rookie season in 2019, and his career low 1.44 yards per route run coming in his first season in Arizona in 2022, when he had a 67/709/3 slash line on 107 targets (6.63 yards per target) in 12 games.

Brown is a former first round pick who is only in his age 26 season, so he still could get better going forward, but he’s running out of time to develop into a true #1 wide receiver, after being more of a low end #1/high end #2 throughout his career. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cardinals do with his contract, with Brown going into the final year of his rookie deal and likely expecting a top of the market deal, given that the Cardinals traded a first round pick for him and now have money freed up from releasing Hopkins. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to double down on their decision to give up a first round pick for him by giving him a top of market deal, given the lack of other promising young players on this roster to give their money to.

Rondale Moore, meanwhile, is a former 2021 second round pick who is expected to be the #2 receiver. He essentially served in that role last season before getting hurt, as his healthy stint last season coincided with Hopkins suspension. Moore had a decent 41/414/1 slash line in 8 games, but averaged just 1.47 yards per route run, down from 1.64 yards per route run in a more limited role as a rookie. Moore is still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a solid #2 receiver, but he could also remain middling at best or get hurt again.

Greg Dortch is probably the favorite for the #3 receiver job, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option, as the 2019 undrafted free agent averaged just 1.33 yards per route run in a part-time role last season, in the first significant action of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the rookie Michael Wilson overtakes him for the job by mid-season, though Wilson would likely have growing pains and his own struggles if forced into a significant role in year one. Wilson could also find his way into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart, with the only experienced reserve option on the team being Zach Pascal, who has averaged just 1.13 yards per route run in six seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Cardinals will get Zach Ertz back from injury at some point, after a torn ACL ended his 2022 season in week 10, but he also might not be ready for the start of the season and, even if he is, he could easily not be at his best, especially given that he is now heading into his age 33 season. Ertz already seemed to be slowing down even before the injury, averaging just 1.20 yards per route run over the past three seasons, including just 1.08 in 2022 before getting hurt, down from 1.83 in his first seven years in the league, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further. Never a great run blocker, if Ertz declines further as a pass catcher, he would probably become a liability for this team. 

The Cardinals used a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Trey McBride, likely as a future replacement for Ertz, but he struggled as a rookie, averaging just 0.84 yards per route run, struggling as a run blocker, and doing minimal with his opportunity in Ertz’s absence (26/241/1 on 36 targets in 8 games without Ertz). He has a good chance to take a step forward in year two in 2023 and, even when Ertz is active, McBride will likely play more than a typical #2 tight end would, but he has a long way to go to become even a starting caliber tight end. This is an underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Along with DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Zach Ertz, the Cardinals also had a trio of week 1 starters on the offensive line who were over 30 last season, left guard Justin Pugh, center Rodney Hudson, and right tackle Kelvin Beachum. Pugh and Hudson were limited to 263 snaps and 303 snaps respectively by injury and are no longer with the team in 2023, while Beachum remains and now left tackle DJ Humphries heads into his age 30 season, on an offensive line that still has a lot of problems.

The Cardinals at least used a first round pick on Ohio State’s Paris Johnson to replace Justin Pugh at left guard and he figures to be an immediate upgrade, with Pugh posting a middling 61.0 grade before getting hurt last year and his primary replacement Max Garcia finishing at 54.5. Johnson also has the versatility to kick outside to either tackle spot if needed, which could ultimately be his long-term position. The Cardinals also signed veteran journeyman Elijah Wilkinson in free agency to give them some much needed depth at guard with Max Garcia also no longer on the team. Wilkinson is unspectacular, but he’s made 36 starts in 6 seasons in the league and is not bad depth, with grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in every season in the league.

At center, on the other hand, the Cardinals don’t have an obvious starter, not only losing Hudson this off-season, but not retaining the players who started in Hudson’s absence last season, Sean Harlow and Billy Price, who struggled mightily anyway. To replace them, the Cardinals gave a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal to Hjalte Froholdt, a 2019 4th round pick who made the first 6 starts of his career last season, performing alright (61.4 PFF grade), but not well enough to suggest he should be locked in as a season long starter. The Cardinals might not have a choice but to use him in that role though, with their next best options being Leticus Smith, a 2022 6th round pick who struggled mightily on 210 snaps at guard as a rookie, and Jon Gaines, a 4th round rookie out of UCLA who would also be converting from guard. Center figures to be a position of weakness for this team again in 2023.

Humphries is also coming off of an injury plagued season, limited to 575 snaps in 8 games, and now returns to his age 30 season, which means he could be on the decline. He also has a pretty extensive injury history, playing fewer than nine games in half of his eight seasons in the league, with 47 total games missed. The Cardinals didn’t really miss Humphries much last season, as swing tackle Josh Jones had a 75.8 PFF grade in 9 starts in his absence, but Jones had a 46.7 PFF grade in 12 starts in 2021 in the only other extended starting experience of his career and, while the 2020 3rd round pick could have turned a corner and, as a result, will easily remain a solid starter if forced back into action, the Cardinals are still happy to have Humphries back. Humphries has finished above 70 on PFF in four of the past six seasons, including 72.3 last season, maxing out at 88.3 in 2020, so, even if he does decline, he should remain at least a solid starter, though one who would easily miss more time with injury, given his history. 

Right tackle Kelvin Beachum could also decline this season, as he is even older than Humphries, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing above 60 on PFF yet again last season, like he had in each of his first 10 seasons in the league prior to last season. In fact, his 70.6 PFF grade last season was actually his highest since the 2014 season. He probably won’t be quite as good again in 2023, but he could still remain at least a capable starter, assuming his abilities don’t drop off completely. 

Right guard Will Hernandez is the only returning starter who isn’t going into his age 30 season or older. He re-signed on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with the Cardinals this off-season, after signing a one-year deal to come over from the Giants last off-season and posting a 65.4 PFF grade in his first season in Arizona in 2022. That’s around how he’s played throughout his career, mostly being a middling starter, making 69 starts and receiving a PFF grade in the 50s or 60s in all five seasons in the league. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Hernandez in 2023. He’s a decent starter on an offensive line with a lot of questions.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Lead back James Conner returns, but they have a serious depth problem behind him, which is a problem because Conner has missed at least two games in all six seasons in the league, missing 20 games total. Conner has averaged 13.8 carries per game over the past five seasons with a 4.17 YPC and 44 touchdowns, but that’s not an overly impressive average and Cardinals may need even more carries than that from him this season, given their lack of depth, which could wear him down and make him less effective. Conner also figures to have a big role in the passing game, after catching 207 passes in 64 games in the past five seasons, with a 1.18 yards per route run average, unspectacular, but decent for a running back. The Cardinals will be counting on Conner for a lot this season.

Behind Conner on the depth chart, the Cardinals have career journeyman and special teamer Corey Clement, who has never surpassed 90 touches in a season in six seasons in the league, 2022 6th round pick Keaontay Ingram, who saw just 31 touches as a rookie, 2020 undrafted free agent Ty’Son Williams, who has 45 career touches, and undrafted rookie Emari Demercado. Any of them could wind up as the #2 back behind Conner and, while Conner figures to be the feature back, they will need at least a few carries per game from a backup running back and, if Conner’s injury history is any indication, one of these guys is likely going to have to start at some point this season. Conner is a solid starter, but he’s an unspectacular one and injury prone one and the Cardinals’ depth situation behind him is as bad as any team in the league.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also lost key players on defense this off-season, including interior defenders JJ Watt and Zach Allen, the former of whom retired ahead of what would have been his age 34 season, despite still posting a 68.3 PFF grade on 816 snaps last season, while the latter also impressed with a 72.7 grade on 660 snaps last season and, as a result, ended up signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45.75 million dollar deal as a free agent. The Cardinals do still have Jeremiah Ledbetter (275 snaps) and Leki Fotu (499 snaps), but they struggled last season with PFF grades of 43.4 and 32.4 respectively.

The Cardinals will also be hoping for more from Rashard Lawrence, a 2020 4th round pick who was playing a significant role for the first time in his career when he went down for the season last year (112 snaps in 5 games), and they signed veterans Carlos Watkins and LJ Collier to cheap one-year deals. Ledbetter, Fotu, Lawrence, Watkins, and Collier will all compete for playing time, but all seem like very underwhelming options. Jonathan Ledbetter went undrafted in 2019 and had played just 61 defensive snaps in his career prior to struggling in a limited role last season. Leki Fotu was a 4th round pick in 2020, but has received a PFF grade of 41 or lower in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 385 snaps per season. 

Lawrence barely played in his first two seasons in the league, seeing 385 nondescript snaps total, before continuing his nondescript play into a slightly larger per game role last season prior to injury. Carlos Watkins is a 6-year veteran who has mostly been a mediocre rotational player in his career, maxing out at 542 snaps in a season (2020) and a 60.8 PFF grade (2021), and is now going into his age 30 season. LJ Collier was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2019, but proved to be a massive bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of just 270 snaps per season, and is already in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to get significantly better going forward. This is a very weak position group with no clear starting caliber players.

Grade: C-

Edge Defenders

The Cardinals’ top edge defender a year ago, Markus Golden (781 snaps) is another pretty key player who was on the wrong side of 30 last season and is no longer with the team, a pretty big loss as he had a decent 65.3 PFF grade across a large snap count. To replace him, the Cardinals used a 2nd round pick on LSU’s BJ Ojulari and will give larger roles to a pair of 2022 3rd round picks, Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders. Thomas was the better of the two as rookies, with a 69.9 PFF grade on 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate, as opposed to 260 and a 10.1% pressure rate for Sanders, but both have the upside to develop into solid starters and both could take a step forward in year two in a bigger role. 

The Cardinals also still have Dennis Gardeck, a career special teamer who has been decent on snap counts of 210 and 173 over the past two seasons, in the first even somewhat significant defensive action of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career, and Victor Dimukeje, a 2021 6th round pick who was underwhelming with a 57.0 grade on 251 snaps in the first somewhat significant action of his career in 2023. This is a very thin and inexperienced position group, but they at least have a few young players with some upside, even if it’s unlikely all three will make good on that upside this season.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Cardinals didn’t make a lot of additions this off-season, but they did add free agent linebacker Kyzir White on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. White has posted grades of 66.5 and 65.0 on PFF over the past two seasons with the Chargers and Eagles as more or less an every down player, playing all possible 34 games and averaging 53.6 snaps played per game, holding up against the run and in coverage, and he’s needed in Arizona because the Cardinals no longer have Ben Niemann (484 snaps) and Tanner Vallejo (282 snaps), who saw roles at linebacker last season, while hybrid defensive back/linebacker Isaiah Simmons is expected to move to defensive back full-time, leaving the Cardinals in need of another every down linebacker next to holdover Zaven Collins (1,025 snaps), which White will be.

Collins wasn’t as good as White last season, but the 2021 1st round pick wasn’t too bad in the first starting action of his career (59.8 PFF grade), after flashing potential with a 69.3 grade on 220 snaps as a rookie, and could still get better in year three, only his age 24 season. He and White should be a decent every down starting linebacker duo, but depth is a big concern, with special teamer Ezekiel Turner (144 career defensive snaps in five seasons in the league) and 5th round rookie Owen Pappoe likely to be their top reserves. That hurts their overall grade at this position, as they would likely have a big liability in the starting lineup if either White or Collins got hurt.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Perhaps part of the reason the Cardinals are moving Isaiah Simmons to defensive back full-time is because the Cardinals have a big need at the cornerback position, where Simmons can man the slot. Byron Murphy was their top cornerback a year ago and, even though he was limited to 595 snaps in 9 games by injury, he will be missed because his 66.7 PFF grade made him one of just three Cardinals to see any action at cornerback and finish above 60 on PFF, with the other two being Simmons and Antonio Hamilton, who only played 420 snaps, making 5 starts.

Hamilton will get the first chance at replacing Murphy, but the 420 snaps he played last season were a career high and, while he’s been decent in limited action, he’s also already going into his age 30 season and could easily struggle in his first season as a full-time starter. He would start next to Marco Wilson, who has started 26 of 28 games played over the past two seasons, with an average of 54.5 snaps played per game, but the 2021 5th round pick has struggled with grades of 52.9 and 55.3 and he is no guarantee to be any better in his 2023, even if he does have the potential to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year three.

The Cardinals also signed veteran Rashad Fenton in free agency. A 6th round pick by the Chiefs in 2019, Fenton flashed a lot of potential as a part-time player in his first three seasons in the league, but struggled as a starter in the first half of the 2022 season, before getting benched and traded to the Falcons, with whom he barely played. Fenton is only going into his age 26 season and has some bounce back potential, but he’s never played more than 531 snaps in a season and might be overstretched as a full-time starter. He’ll be in the mix for a starting role, as will 3rd round rookie Garrett Williams, while 6th round rookie Kei’Trel Clark and 2022 7th round pick Christian Mathew, who struggled on 237 rookie year snaps in 2022, will compete for deep reserve roles.

As the slot cornerback, Isaiah Simmons might be the best player the Cardinals have at the cornerback position. He hasn’t lived up to the billing as the 8th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a freakishly athletic, versatile prospect with a sky high ceiling, as he struggled in his first two seasons in the league as primarily a linebacker, receiving a 59.9 PFF grade on 376 snaps as rookie and 51.0 on 1,005 snaps in his second season in 2021. However, he fared better in 2022 when he played more cornerback, receiving a 67.9 grade from PFF on 897 snaps, including a 69.9 coverage grade, and, still only in his age 25 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward now as a full-time defensive back. Even if he’s not worth where he was drafted, he could still be an above average slot cornerback, which will be useful for this defense.

Simmons could also see some action at safety, where he would also seem to be a fit, but he hasn’t played there a lot in his career and that’s one position where the Cardinals are in pretty good shape, with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson returning as starters. Baker was a 2nd round pick by the Cardinals in 2017 and he has been an above average starter for most of his career, taking over the starting job in his second season in the league and finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including four seasons over 70, with just five total games missed due to injury. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Thompson, meanwhile, was a 4th round supplemental pick in 2019 and, after flashing potential with a 64.4 PFF grade on 607 snaps as a rookie, Thompson became a starter in year two and has started 33 of the 39 games he’s played over the past three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 70.1, 68.2, and 65.0. Still only going into his age 25, Thompson could still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter. The Cardinals have paid up to keep their safeties, with Thompson on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal and Baker getting extra money tacked on to what was originally a 4-year, 59 million dollar deal after threatening a holdout this off-season. They might be a little overpaid, but they are the strength of a weak secondary and a weak defense overall.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

Despite coming off of a playoff appearance, the Cardinals were a below average team going into last season, relying on their +12 turnover margin to qualify for the post-season the year prior, losing several key players in the off-season, and having multiple key players who were over the age of 30 and who, as a result, were prime candidates to decline. Things then went from bad to worse for the Cardinals when they had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, leading to a 4-13 record. They should be healthier this season by default, but they still have several key players who are coming off of serious injuries who might not be ready for the start of the season and/or may not be the same upon their return, including quarterback Kyler Murray.

On top of that, the Cardinals lost even more key players this off-season, with several of their key players over the age of 30 moving on, including DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt, and Markus Golden, as well as promising young free agents in Byron Murphy and Zach Allen, without the Cardinals really adding comparable replacements. All in all, this looks likely to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season and probably the single worst team in the league until Murray returns and somewhat resembles himself, which probably won’t be in week 1. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in NFC West