Month: July 2023

Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterback

The Steelers started last season just 2-6, but won 7 of their final 9 games to make a late push towards a playoff spot, only coming short of a wild card spot on a tiebreaker. The Steelers were without dominant edge defender TJ Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, for seven of their first eight games, after he got injured week 1, and he returned for each of the final 9 games of the season, so it might seem that the Steelers will just be able to continue the run they went on in the second half of 2022 into 2023 as long as Watt is healthy, but that isn’t the full story.

For starters, a big part of the reason the Steelers had more success in the second half of the season was their schedule got much easier. While five of their first eight games came against playoff qualifiers, just three of their final nine games did and two of those games came against a Ravens team that was starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. When that is considered, it seems more like the Steelers were more or less an average team the whole season and, while the return of Watt obviously helped, it didn’t suddenly turn them from a bottom dweller to a contender. On top of that, while Watt should be healthier this season, the Steelers barely had any other injuries last season, having the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which will almost definitely not happen again in 2023.

There is one piece of good news for the Steelers’ chances of taking a step forward as a team in 2023 though and it’s the play of quarterback Kenny Pickett down the stretch of his rookie season. In his final five full starts of the season, Pickett totaled a grade of 90.2 on PFF, showing the promise that made him the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, after an underwhelming start with a 61.1 grade prior to those final five full starts. His stats in those five starts, 59.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions, don’t jump off the page, but that has a lot to do with the lack of talent around him on offense. 

In fact, while Pickett’s season-long stats, 63.0% completion, 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, look pretty mediocre, he actually ranked 18th among quarterbacks with a 75.5 PFF grade, even with the slow start he had to the season, as a big part of the problem with this Steelers’ offense was the supporting cast around the quarterback. Pickett’s last five starts are a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in year two and, if he can get better play from his supporting cast as well, that should lead to a significant jump in statistical production.

Pickett only really played 12 games as a rookie, sitting on the bench for most of the first three games of the season and missing close to two full games due to injury late in the year, with veteran Mitch Trubisky starting in his absence. Trubisky had a similar season, with a 76.6 PFF grade that ranked 15th among quarterbacks, but mediocre production, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. 

Trubisky was the 2nd overall pick in 2017 and started for most of his first four seasons in the league with the Bears (50 starts total) and, when he signed with the Steelers last off-season, it was with the intention of competing for the starting job, after spending the year as the backup in Buffalo in 2021. However, this off-season Trubisky was willing to sign long-term with the Steelers as a backup, signing a 2-year extension that pays him 19.25 million over the next three seasons, solid backup money, but a good value for the Steelers to keep a player who can be a low end starter for stretches if needed. 

Trubisky never panned out as a starter in Chicago, with a 87.2 QB rating and a max PFF grade of 66.4 for a season, but he wasn’t horrible either and he seemed to take a little bit of a step forward in 2023. Still only in his age 29 season, he could still have some untapped potential. Trubisky is a good option to have for a Steelers team that doesn’t totally know what it has in Pickett yet. This isn’t a great quarterback room, but it could be worse and there is potential if Pickett continues playing better than he did early in his rookie season.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Steelers had an unsustainably low amount of injuries overall last season and, with that unlikely to remain the case again in 2023, that is a threat to an offensive supporting cast that was already mediocre last season and that needs to take a step forward for this team to take a step forward. However, the Steelers did make some additions to this offense this off-season, which could offset their expected increase in injuries. 

The two most notable offensively upgrades were on the offensive line, where the Steelers used a first round pick on Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones and signed veteran guard Isaac Seumalo to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, adding to an offensive line that ranked 14th in pass blocking grade and 16th in run blocking grade last season, despite remarkably not having a single starter miss a game due to injury, allowing them to start the same five offensive linemen in all 17 starts, an incredible rare feat.

Jones could start at either left tackle or right tackle as a rookie, pushing either left tackle Dan Moore or right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor for their job. Moore was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has been starting since week 1 of his rookie year, but he was mediocre in year one with a 57.8 PFF grade in 16 starts and, while he was better in year two, he was a 62.4 grade, he could still stand to be upgraded and might not have a huge upside. 

Okorafor, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has been starting for three seasons, after playing minimally in his first two seasons in the league. Okorafor has 48 starts over those past three seasons, but he has been middling at best, with grades of 57.5, 63.6, and 61.2 respectively, so he too could stand to be upgraded. Jones may have some growing pains as a rookie, but he still could easily be an upgrade at either tackle spot, regardless of where he starts, and he obviously has more long-term upside than either Moore or Okorafor. 

Seumalo, meanwhile, is added to a guard group where Kevin Dotson and James Daniels received grades of 65.4 and 66.9 respectively from PFF last season. Neither player was bad, but Seumalo finished 7th among guards on PFF with a 75.2 grade last season, so he could easily be an upgrade. He does have some downside, as he heads into his age 30 season and is coming off of a career best year, but he should remain at least a solid starter and, with the money the Steelers are playing him, he figures to displace either Dotson or Daniels. 

Daniels was signed to a 3-year, 26.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, so he figures to remain a starter somewhere, especially after his 5th straight season with a PFF grade over 60 (65 starts), but he does have some experience at center (8 starts in 2019) and moving him there could give the Steelers’ their best five starting offensive linemen. Dotson has received grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons (30 starts) since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, so there’s a good argument for him keeping his starting job, which would require Daniels to move inside.

It’s possible the Steelers keep Daniels at guard and move Dotson to the bench though, as incumbent center Mason Cole is also coming off of a solid season with a 67.1 PFF grade, in the first year of a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal the Steelers signed him to last off-season. Cole could continue that play into 2023, but the 2018 3rd round pick finished below 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league (39 starts) prior to last season and might not be quite as good again in 2023. He might have permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, but it’s possible he struggles and/or winds up getting benched, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago.

The Steelers also added veteran Nate Herbig in free agency to give them more depth and they still have 2021 3rd round pick Kendrick Green, who struggled with a 52.4 grade on 975 snaps (15 starts) as a rookie and didn’t play a snap as a reserve in year two, but who could still have some upside long-term and, because of that, he is an interesting reserve option as well. Herbig, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019, but has made 38 starts over the past three seasons, while receiving grades of 71.2, 68.1, and 58.0 from PFF over those three seasons, so he’s obviously a good depth option to have. This offensive line doesn’t have a huge upside, but they should be deeper and probably better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers are hoping improved offensive line play can jumpstart the career of 2021 1st round pick running back Najee Harris, but Harris has been part of the problem as well. He’s surpassed 1000 yards rushing in each of his first two seasons in the league, but has mostly done so on volume, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry, while ranking 34th out of 50 eligible in carry success rate at 49% as a rookie in 2021 and 38th out of 42 eligible in carry success rate at 47% in his second season in the league in 2022. Meanwhile, Harris’ backup Jaylen Warren averaged 4.92 YPC on 77 carries in 2022, despite only being an undrafted rookie. Warren is still very unproven and a projection to a larger role, but he could have a larger role in year two, which could benefit Harris by keeping him fresher, after back-to-back huge workloads to start his career.

Warren also spelled Harris in some passing situations last season and had a 1.24 yards per route run average that was significantly better than Harris’ 0.77 yards per route run average. Harris has 115 catches through two seasons in the league, but that too is mostly due to volume, as he’s averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in his career, as well as just 4.73 yards per target. Warren could also cut into his passing game work more in 2023. The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Harris and Warren though and counting on a still unproven second year undrafted free agent to be the spark needed at the running back situation is not a great situation to be in, with Harris mostly disappointing through two seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad backfield, but they could remain an underwhelming rushing team.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

A lesser addition the Steelers made to this offense this off-season was veteran Allen Robinson, who comes over from the Rams on what amounts to a salary dump, with the Rams taking on 10.25 of his 15.25 million dollar guaranteed salary, in exchange for a swap of late round picks. Robinson isn’t a bad flier for the Steelers, who desperately needed another receiver to go with top holdovers George Pickens (52/801/4) and Diontae Johnson (86/882/0). 

However, there’s a reason why the Rams were so desperate to move on from Robinson, who they signed to a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal just last off-season. The Rams signed Robinson to that deal even though he struggled mightily in his final season in Chicago in 2021, totaling just a 38/410/1 slash line and averaging 1.13 yards per route run, and he didn’t bounce back in his lone season with the Rams, having an even worse season with a 33/339/3 slash line and a 0.93 yards per route run average. 

It wasn’t totally unreasonable for the Rams to think Robinson would bounce back though, as Robinson was under 30 and, prior to his down 2021 season, Robinson had a 1.80 yards per route run average with an average slash line of 92/1214/8 per 17 games over the first seven seasons of his career before his down 2021 season, despite routinely having below average quarterback play. Now, Robinson is coming off two straight down seasons and going into his age 30 season, so it’s likely he will continue struggling going forward, but he’s also not totally over the hill, so he could have a little bit of bounce back potential. 

Pickens and Johnson will almost definitely remain their top two wide receivers ahead of Robinson. They had similar production last season, but Pickens was much more efficient, with his yardage coming on just 84 targets, as opposed to 147 for Johnson, which was actually the 7th most in the NFL. Johnson has been an inefficient high volume target for years, with 460 targets over the past three seasons, 5th in the NFL among wide receivers over that stretch, but also with just an average 94/989/5 slash line, good for just 6.45 yards per target, very mediocre for a wide receiver, while also dropping 28 passes over that stretch. Now in his age 27 season, Johnson likely is what he is and would remain an underwhelming #1 receiver if he continued serving in that role. 

Pickens, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has a huge upside, so he could easily take a step forward in a bigger target share in his second season in the league, which would come at the expense of Johnson, but which would also likely make this offense more efficient. Pickens might not be a #1 caliber receiver either, still only in his second season in the league, but he’s by far the more efficient of the top two options and he has the upside to be that #1 wide receiver long-term. 

Tight end Pat Freiermuth was actually their most efficient option last season, with a 1.68 yards per route run average last season, as opposed to 1.44 and 1.38 for Johnson and Pickens respectively. That led to him totaling a 63/732/2 slash line on 98 targets, after totaling a 60/497/7 slash line with 1.26 yards per route run on 79 targets as a second round rookie in 2021. Also a solid blocker, Freiermuth has received overall grades of 72.3 and 75.5 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league and, only in his age 25 season, he should remain a solid starting tight end at the very least for years to come, with the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in year three in 2023, especially if this offense is better as a whole than it was a year ago. 

The Steelers also used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Georgia’s Darnell Washington, but that probably says a lot more about the play of incumbent #2 tight end Zach Gentry than it does about Freiermuth, as Gentry struggled mightily with a 47.5 PFF grade overall last season, showing little as a pass catcher (0.71 yards per route run) or run blocker, while playing 577 snaps total. A 5th round pick in 2019, Gentry has been better as a blocker in the past, but he’s never been much of a receiver (0.81 yards per route run average for his career), so Washington could easily cut into his role as a rookie and could easily be an upgrade, even if he has some growing pains in year one.

In terms of wide receiver depth, the Steelers didn’t make any other additions to a thin position group this off-season, leaving 2022 4th round pick Calvin Austin as their likely top reserve, even after he missed his entire rookie season with injury. The rest of this group mostly consists of players with little experience and recent undrafted free agents, with their only other even somewhat experienced receivers being Miles Boykin (35 career catches in 4 seasons in the league) and Gunner Olszewski (14 catches in 4 seasons), who are both underwhelming options and likely are not even guaranteed to make this roster, even in a thin position group. Pickens, Freiermuth, and Johnson are not a bad top trio and this team will likely benefit from Pickens taking more targets at the expense of Johnson in Pickens’ second season in the league, but they’re not a great top trio either and depth is pretty suspect if injuries strike their top-3.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, this team’s turnaround last season coincided with the return of 2021 Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt from injury and, while their weaker schedule had more to do with their turnaround than anything, Watt’s presence was obviously a factor as well, as he finished last season with 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate on 502 snaps in 10 games, while totaling a 82.1 PFF grade, despite not being 100% for most of the season upon his return. 

As dominant as they come at his best, last year was actually a down year for Watt, who previously had grades of 91.3, 91.6, and 89.5 in the three seasons prior to last season, while totaling 52 sacks, 64 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 46 games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, with minimal injury history aside from last season (four games missed in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season), Watt should be able to bounce back to his peak form in 2023, which will obviously have a significant positive impact on this defense.

With Watt missing a lot of last season and not at 100% when he returned, fellow starting edge defender Alex Highsmith picked up some of the slack. His 14.5 sacks led the team and, while his peripheral pass rush stats were not as good, 5 hits and a 10.5% pressure rate, he still earned an overall 78.0 grade from PFF on a snap count of 941. That was a career best year for Highsmith, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 3rd round pick received grades of 72.0 and 67.2 respectively from PFF on snap counts of 440 and 851 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. 

Highsmith might not be able to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, but, at the same time, he’s also only in his age 26 season and could keep getting better. Ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, the Steelers extended Highsmith on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal this off-season, a good deal considering it contained very limited guarantees. He probably won’t have the same sack total in 2023, even if he does play as well or better than he did in 2022, because he didn’t play as well as that sack total suggested in 2023, but he should remain an above average starting option and, with Watt likely much healthier this year, the Steelers have one of the better edge defender duos in the league. 

Depth was a concern for the Steelers at the edge defender position last season and it especially became a problem this off-season when their top reserve Malik Reed (63.8 PFF grade on 396 snaps) signed with the Dolphins, but the Steelers did a pretty good job reloading, signing veteran Markus Golden and using a 4th round pick on Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig. Herbig could struggle in a big role in year one, but he has upside, while Golden should be at least a solid rotational player. 

Golden is going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown many signs of decline yet and has finished above 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 70 and a total of 47 sacks, 92 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate, while averaging 43.9 snaps per game in 111 games. Golden will undoubtedly have a smaller role in Pittsburgh, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he should benefit from that as he goes into his 30s. His best days are almost definitely behind him and he’s never been much of a run defender, but he could easily remain a solid situational pass rusher. With a talented starting duo and adequate depth, this is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Top interior defender Cameron Heyward has been one of the best players in the league at his position for years. A first round pick in 2011, Heyward was a bit of a late bloomer, only breaking out in year four in 2014 with a 75.0 PFF grade, but he has exceeded 75 on PFF in 8 straight healthy seasons since then, including 7 straight healthy seasons over 80. Also a talented run defender, Heyward has totalled 71 sacks, 91 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 135 games since his breakout 2014 season, very impressive numbers for someone who almost exclusively rushes the passer from the interior. 

Heyward is now heading into his age 34 season though, so there’s a strong chance he declines significantly in 2023. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline, with a 89.9 PFF grade (5th among interior defenders), 10.5 sacks (career high), 11 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate last season and, even if he drops off noticeably, he should remain at least an above average starter.

The Steelers will need Heyward to keep playing at a relatively high level because the rest of this position group is pretty mediocre. 

Larry Ogunjobi played 636 snaps last season and had a decent 61.7 PFF grade, but that was the 2nd best grade of his 6-year career and his best grade as a season-long starter, after three straight seasons below 60 from 2019-2021 prior to last season. Ogunjobi isn’t over the hill in his age 29 season, but he could easily regress in 2023 and go back to struggling like he did before last season. He’s not a bad pass rusher, with a career 7.4% pressure rate, but he consistently leaves something to be desired as a run defender and doesn’t rush the passer well enough to make up for it.

Chris Wormley (74.3 PFF grade on 338 snaps last season) was their top interior reserve a year ago, but he’s no longer with the team, leaving Montravius Adams (281 snaps), DeMarcus Leal (175 snaps), and Isaiah Loudermilk (116 snaps) as their top reserves, with second round rookie Keeanu Benton also being added to the mix this off-season. Benton obviously has upside, as does Leal, who was a 3rd round choice a year ago in the 2022 NFL Draft, but Benton could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, while Leal struggled even in his limited rookie year role and is no guarantee to be significantly better in year two. Both could develop into starting caliber players long-term, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will play at that level in 2023.

Loudermilk is also young, but he was only a 5th round pick in 2021 and has struggled mightily thus far in his career, with PFF grades of 42.2 and 47.5 respectively on a total of 404 snaps in two seasons in the league. It’s possible he could have some untapped potential, but he has a long way to go towards even being a capable rotational player and he’s no guarantee to take a step forward in year three. Adams is the relative veteran of the bunch, as the 2017 3rd round pick has played for four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than a decent deep reserve, never playing more than 300 snaps in a season and finishing below 60 in half of his six seasons in the league. There are some reasons to be concerned in a position group that has questionable depth and that is led by a player in his mid 30s, but they do have some young players with upside at least.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Steelers completely overhauled their linebacking corps this off-season, with all three players who saw significant action at this position, Myles Jack (692 snaps), Devin Bush (659 snaps), and Robert Spillane (588 snaps), not being retained this off-season. In their place, the Steelers signed veterans Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts to be the starters and likely play at least close to an every down role, after being signed to contracts worth 18 million over 3 years and 7 million over 2 years respectively. 

Holcomb seems like the better of the two in that role, as the 2019 5th round pick has been in a similar role for most of his career, starting 48 of a possible 50 games, while playing 54.8 snaps per game. However, he also has finished below 60 on PFF in half of his four seasons in the league, while missing 18 games total due to injury over that stretch. He could be a solid option, but he also could struggle and/or miss significant time with injury.

Roberts, meanwhile, has never played more than 676 snaps in a season, while averaging 451 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2016, and even in that relatively limited role as primarily a base package player Roberts has been underwhelming in his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, including each of the past three seasons. He is likely to continue struggling in what could be a career high in snaps for him in 2023, in a thin linebacking corps. He and Holcomb make an underwhelming starting duo.

Depth behind Holcomb and Roberts is a concern too, as the Steelers didn’t add any real depth options to this overhauled group this off-season, and they don’t have any key reserves returning. The closest thing to a key reserve from a year ago that is still on the roster is 2022 7th round pick Mark Robinson, who played just 44 snaps as a rookie and now is likely their top reserve by default, even though he is highly inexperienced and could struggle mightily if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s the 3rd linebacker in an overall very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Steelers also made significant changes in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, the Steelers’ top-4 a year ago in terms of snaps played per game were Cameron Sutton (71.6 PFF grade on 931 snaps), Levi Wallace (62.8 PFF grade on 709 snaps), Arthur Maulet (56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps), and Akhello Witherspoon (45.4 PFF grade on 248 snaps in four games). This year, only Wallace remains, with the rest of the bunch being replaced by veterans Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan, as well as rookie Joey Porter, who they selected with the 32nd overall pick, the first pick in the second round this year and usually the last pick in the first round, making him a borderline first rounder.

Peterson figures to be the best of the bunch, but he’s going into his age 33 season, which means he could drop off significantly. In his prime, Peterson was one of the better cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 75 on PFF in five of seven seasons in his prime, from 2012-2018, and he still had a strong season in 2022, with a 77.8 PFF grade, but he also had three straight seasons below 70 from 2019-2021 and seemed to be declining, before his bounce back 2022 campaign. It’s possible he could continue playing at his 2022 level in 2023, but he also could easily regress and, even if he doesn’t regress significantly, his best days are still almost definitely behind him. 

Still, compared to their other options, Peterson seems like the best of the bunch and their de facto #1 cornerback. Porter has a lot of upside and figures to start even as a rookie, but he could easily have growing pains in year one, even if he ultimately ends up reaching his potential. Wallace has plenty of experience, with 61 starts in 67 games in five seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2018, but he also is coming off four straight seasons in the 60s on PFF, so he’s mostly been a middling starter in his career and, now in his age 28 season, he likely is what he is at this point, decent, but far from spectacular.

Peterson, Porter, and Wallace will likely be their top-3 cornerbacks, but Chandon Sullivan also has experience, with snap counts of 729, 826, and 944 over the past three seasons. The problem is he’s mostly struggled, with grades of 62.2, 55.0, and 55.8 respectively, and the Steelers would probably prefer him to be their 4th cornerback, assuming their top-3 are healthy. Sullivan will probably have to see a significant role at some point, as it’s unlikely all of the Steelers’ top-3 cornerbacks will play in all 17 games, but he is best as a depth option. The Steelers also bring back James Pierre, who played 260 snaps last season and who has been decent on 705 snaps in three seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2020. He will likely compete with 7th round rookie Cory Trice for the final cornerback spot, in a decent, but overall unspectacular group, led by a 33-year-old who has significant potential to decline.

At safety, Terrell Edmonds wasn’t retained this off-season, after posting a 69.1 grade in 15 starts (886 snaps) a year ago. The Steelers signed veteran Keanu Neal in free agency, but he will likely be a depth option, with Damontae Kazee, who played 273 snaps in 9 games as a depth option in an injury plagued season a year ago, likely stepping into Edmonds’ starting spot. Kazee didn’t play much last season, but he had a 77.9 grade on 991 snaps in 2018, a 60.8 grade on 803 snaps in 2019, and a 60.9 grade on 900 snaps in 2021, before excelling (81.0 PFF grade) in limited action a year ago. Kazee is now heading into his age 30 season and has a pretty significant recent injury history (20 games missed in the past three seasons), but he’s been at least a capable starter whenever he’s been called on to start in his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so I wouldn’t expect a massive decline from him.

Keanu Neal, meanwhile, looked like he was on his way towards a promising career after his first couple seasons in the league, posting grades of 75.9 and 78.3 in 30 total starts, after being selected in the first round in 2016. However, he suffered back-to-back serious injuries in the next two seasons (2018 and 2019) and, not only did that limit him to just 203 snaps in 4 games in those two seasons, but it also seems to have completely derailed his once promising career. 

In his first season back from those two injuries in 2020, Neal was still decent, with a 68.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he couldn’t find a starting job available to him in free agency the next off-season and has spent the past two seasons mostly struggling as a reserve, with a 35.9 PFF grade on 579 snaps in 2021 and a 57.7 PFF grade on 580 snaps in 2022. Neal likely won’t start in Pittsburgh either, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he figures to play at least a situational sub package role, with the versatility to line up on the slot and at linebacker in dime packages. Neal is still only in his age 28 season and could still have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling, even in a reserve role.

Fortunately, the Steelers still have Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is not only their top safety, but their top defensive back and one of the best safeties in the league. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, the Steelers gave up a first round pick to acquire him after one year, which was a steep price for a player who had a middling rookie season (61.9 PFF grade on 944 snaps) and who had already used up one of the four cheap, cost controlled years on his rookie deal, but that move actually proved to be a steal, as Fitzpatrick immediately broke out with a 79.8 PFF grade in his first season in Pittsburgh. 

Fitzpatrick then followed that up with a 79.5 PFF grade in 2020 and, while he regressed to 59.8 in 2021, he bounced back in a big way in 2022, with a 82.4 PFF grade. His history is a little inconsistent, but he is one of the best safeties in the league when at his best and, still only in his age 27 season, he has a good chance to continue being at his best in 2023. He elevates a secondary that aside from him is decent, but unspectacular, after even this position group was overhauled this off-season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Steelers went 8-2 with TJ Watt on the field last season and Watt figures to be healthier in 2023, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In those 10 games with Watt, the Steelers played four games against playoff qualifiers, with two of those coming against a team with a backup quarterback, one of which turned out to be a loss. In the other two games, one was a loss to the Bengals, their other loss with Watt on the field, while the other was a win over the Bengals in a game in which the Steelers won the turnover battle by 5, which is not sustainable week-to-week, and still needed the Bengals to miss easy kicks for the game to go to overtime. The Steelers also barely had any other injuries aside from Watt, with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2023.

Overall, the Steelers have a solid roster, but unfortunately they play in by far the tougher of the two conferences and, with many other teams looking better than them entering the season, the Steelers have a pretty narrow path to a post-season berth, which would almost definitely require several teams projected ahead of them to be ravaged by injuries and/or disappoint significant. If they played in the NFC, the Steelers would be very much in the playoff picture, but their odds are much worse in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC North

Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

The Chiefs have the lowest floor of any team in the league because they have the league’s best quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who ensures they will at least have a strong offense. In Mahomes’ five seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterbacks, Mahomes has led the Chiefs’ offense to finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in offensive DVOA, despite changing personnel around him. Offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, especially when a team has an elite quarterback like Mahomes, so the Chiefs should remain a high level offense in 2023, barring an unexpected injury to Mahomes, who has missed just two starts due to injury in his tenure as the starter.

In total, Mahomes has completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions (105.7 QB rating), while receiving grades of 93.2, 83.6, 91.4, 77.1, and 91.3 respectively on PFF, and going 64-16 overall, with his worst season being a 12-5 finish. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Mahomes should continue playing at a dominant level in 2023 and beyond and, as long as he has at least a decent roster around him, he should continue having this team in regular contention for the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ backup will be veteran Blaine Gabbert, who was signed this off-season. Obviously any quarterback who backs up Mahomes would be an obvious downgrade if he had to play in Mahomes’ absence, but Gabbert is probably on the lower end of backups even by that standard. In his career, Gabbert has made 48 starts in 12 seasons in the league with a career QB rating of just 72.6, with just none of those starts coming in the past four seasons, in which he has thrown a total of 35 pass attempts, clearly settled into the backup quarterback stage of his career, after competing for starting jobs in earlier seasons. In his age 34 season, Gabbert is who he is at this stage of his career, a smart backup, but someone you obviously want to avoid having to play, especially when you consider who the regular starter is.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

There were a couple big changes to Mahomes’ supporting cast this off-season. At the tackle position, the Chiefs let free agents Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie walk, signing deals worth 64.092 million over 4 years with the Bengals and 24 million over 3 years with the Commanders respectively, and the Chiefs replaced with them former Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and former Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal. 

Overall, it seems like the Chiefs’ new tackle duo is a downgrade from the previous one. On the left side, Donovan Smith will likely be a downgrade from Orlando Brown, who finished last season with a 75.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. Smith had three straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2021, including a career best 83.3 in 2021, but that fell to 58.1 in 2022 and, while injuries had a lot to do with that, Smith is now heading into his age 30 season, so his best days should be behind him at this point, even if he does have some bounce back potential. He has a good chance to remain a solid starter if he can stay healthy, which isn’t a huge concern, as he’s missed just six games in 8 seasons in the league, but I would still expect him to be a downgrade from the incumbent Orlando Brown.

On the right side, you would think Jawaan Taylor would be a big upgrade on Andrew Wylie, considering the Chiefs gave Taylor a contract that makes him the 5th highest paid offensive tackle and the second highest paid right tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary. However, Taylor was likely overpaid on that contract, as the 2019 2nd round pick has received overall grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in all four seasons in the league. 

Taylor has received grades of 72.0 and 76.4 in pass protection over the past two seasons respectively, but his run blocking still leaves something to be desired and he’s one of the most penalized offensive linemen in the league, with 39 penalties in 66 career games. Even if he might still have untapped upside in his age 26 season, Taylor seems unlikely to live to his contract and the incumbent Wylie, who had a 63.1 PFF grade last season, would have given them a capable starter at a much cheaper price.

The interior of this offensive line was the strength of this group a year ago, even with solid tackle play, and, with all three interior starters returning for 2023, this should remain a strength. Center Creed Humphrey and right tackle Trey Smith were added in the 2021 NFL Draft, in the 2nd and 6th round respectively. Humphrey instantly was one of the best centers in the league, receiving grades of 91.4 and 90.0 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons, and, only in his age 24 season, he seems well on his way towards being one of the best centers in the league for years to come.

Smith, meanwhile, was a steal where he was drafted and only fell because of health concerns that have not been a problem thus far, with Smith missing just one career start in two seasons in the league and showing he should have been a much higher draft pick, with PFF grades of 72.3 and 71.5 respectively. Still only in his age 24 season, Smith should remain an above average starter for years to come and may have the upside to become even better in his third season in the league in 2023.

Left guard Joe Thuney was also added during the 2021 off-season, signed to a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Thuney has consistently been one of the better guards in the league for most of his career, receiving PFF grades of 73.5, 75.7, 77.4, and 74.2 respectively in his final four seasons in New England and then continuing that with the Chiefs, with grades of 80.5 and 77.3 over the past two seasons respectively. His age is a concern, now in his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he should remain at least a solid starter.

The Chiefs will probably have more injuries on the offensive line than a year ago, when their starting five offensive line missed just three starts combined, but they do have decent depth. Lucas Niang is the swing tackle and the 2020 3rd round pick showed promise with a 64.6 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2021, though that season is sandwiched in between a rookie year lost to injury and a 2022 campaign where he saw just 10 snaps, as a reserve on a very healthy offensive line. 

Guard Nick Allegretti played the most snaps of any of their reserves last season, with 286 snaps and 3 starts, and he’s been mostly decent in 12 starts since being selected in the 7th round in 2019, leading to the Chiefs retaining him as a free agent this off-season on a 1-year, 2.5825 million dollar deal to remain a reserve in Kansas City. The Chiefs also have backup center Austin Reiter, who didn’t play a snap last year behind Creed Humphrey, but who made 33 starts from 2019-2021, receiving 63.0 and 70.9 grades in 2019 and 2020 with the Chiefs prior to Humphrey’s arrival, but then falling to 46.9 in 2021 after signing with the Dolphins. The Chiefs would see a dropoff in play if any of their reserves had to see significant action, but they don’t have bad backups and their starting five is one of the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big change to this offense is the loss of top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished last season with a 78/933/3 slash line on 101 targets. Smith-Schuster led a group last season that was already significant different than the year before, most notably losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but also losing five of the six wide receivers who caught a pass for them in 2021, replacing them with Smith-Schuster and fellow free agent addition Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, and eventually former Giants 2021 first round pick Kadarius Toney, who they Chiefs added in a mid-season trade for a third round pick last season. The Chiefs also still had Mecole Hardman last season (25/297/4 slash line on 34 targets), their lone holdover from 2021, though he too left the team this off-season.

With Smith-Schuster and Hardman gone, the Chiefs will be hoping for more out of Moore in his second season in the league and out of Kadarius Toney in his first full season in Kansas City, after they contributed just 313 snaps and 109 snaps during the regular season last year, and the Chiefs also added veteran free agent Richie James and second round pick Rashee Rice. Along with veteran Valdes-Scantling, those aforementioned players will all compete for roles in a pretty wide open receiving corps. 

Valdes-Scantling is likely locked into a starting role, after playing 777 snaps and totaling a 42/687/2 slash line with a 1.24 yards per route run average a year ago, but the 2018 5th round pick is almost definitely not someone who is going to turn into a #1 wide receiver at this stage of his career, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run and not exceeding 700 yards receiving in any of his five seasons in the league, despite spending his whole career with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. He’s not a terrible starter and could see a small uptick in targets this season with Smith-Schuster gone, but even Valdes-Scantling’s middling production has more to do with his quarterback play and the talent around him than anything he does.

Moore and Toney have upside and are likely penciled in as the other two starters with Valdes-Scantling in three wide receiver sets, although they come with downside as well. Moore barely played as rookie and his 1.50 yards per route run in limited action left something to be desired, considering the offense he played on, while Toney has a career 2.12 yards per route run average, but consistent injuries have limited him to just 446 snaps in 19 games in two seasons in the league. Toney seems like the better option of the two, as a former first round pick who has shown a lot of promise thus far in his career, but durability will remain a concern for him and he’s still very unproven, while Moore, despite his underwhelming rookie year, still profiles as a long-term starter as well, even if he might not show it yet in year two. 

Moore and Toney will be pushed for these jobs by the rookie Rashee Rice and the veteran free agent Richie James. Rice has a high upside long-term and has a good chance to make an immediate impact, while James playing in 3-wide receivers would likely be seen as a worst case scenario, as the veteran is a mediocre option who was mostly added for insurance and depth purposes, in an inexperienced receiving corps. James has a career 1.58 yards per route run average and had a 57/569/4 slash line with the Giants in 2022, but he’s mostly been a reserve in his career, with his best slash line prior to 2022 being a 23/394/1 slash line in 2021, and it’s unlikely that he suddenly breaks out in his 6th season in the league in 2023.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, the best receiving tight end in the league and this team’s de facto #1 receiver a year ago, with a 110/1338/12 slash line on 152 targets, in a role in which he will serve again in 2023. Kelce’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he’s been very durable in his career, missing just three games in the past nine seasons combined, and, even if he does decline in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he figures to remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless, exceeding 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run and exceeding 1000 yards receiving in all seven of those seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good again in 2023, he should remain the Chiefs’ top target in the passing game.

Noah Gray, the #2 tight end, also had a pretty significant role in this offense last season for a backup tight end, playing 599 snaps and averaging 1.06 yards per route run with a 28/299/1 slash line on 34 targets. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gray didn’t show much as a rookie and will remain a backup in 2023, but he’s a solid #2 tight end and he may be someone the Chiefs view as a potential long-term successor for Kelce, when Kelce eventually declines or decides to hang them up. With a mostly inexperienced group at wide receiver, expect the Chiefs to continue relying on the tight end position heavily on the passing game. Kelce significantly elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, though there is some concern he may start to decline even somewhat, given his age.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running back has relatively been a position of weakness for the Chiefs on offense in recent years. They attempted to solve the situation by using a 2020 1st round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he has been a disappointment through three seasons in the league. Injuries have been part of the problem, costing him 17 games total, but he also hasn’t been that effective, averaging 4.37 yards per carry on 371 carries and 0.98 yards per route run in his career. Edwards-Helaire will probably remain on the roster for 2023, but the Chiefs have tried trading him and, after declining his 5th year option for 2024, this will likely be Edwards-Helaire’s final season in Kansas City.

With Edwards-Helaire struggling to lock down the running back position, it was actually a much lower draft pick who stabilized the running back position for the Chiefs in 2022, with 7th round rookie Isiah Pacheco giving them their best lead back in years, taking 170 carries for 830 yards (4.88 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, despite having to earn his way into playing time early in the year, with just 44 carries in his first 8 games, before averaging 14.0 carries per game in his final 9 games. 

Pacheco didn’t contribute much in the passing game, with 13 catches and 0.88 yards per route run, but he ran well enough that he should remain the clear lead back and, not having to earn his way into that role early in the season, Pacheco should exceed last year’s carry total, now as a season-long starter. He could regress somewhat and it’s still worth noting that the whole league let him fall to the 7th round a year ago, but he could easily remain a solid early down back and he should have plenty of running room, on an offense where the passing game is a much bigger threat for defenses to worry about.

Pacheco will likely pair with veteran Jerick McKinnon, who only averaged 4.04 YPC on 72 carries a year ago, but who had a 56/512/9 slash line on 71 targets with a 1.50 yards per route run average that ranked 10th in the NFL among running backs. That’s nothing new for McKinnon, whose career 4.05 YPC average on 639 carries in 9 seasons in the league leaves something to be desired, but who also has a yards per route run average of 1.29 for his career and who could continue producing at the level he produced at last season, playing with by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with. 

McKinnon’s age is a concern in his age 31 season, which tends to be when running backs are over the hill, but McKinnon isn’t a traditional running back and doesn’t have the same amount of career usage (883 touches) as most backs in their age 31 season, so he could easily remain a solid pass catching option for another season or two, even if he does start to decline slightly. He and Pacheco complement each other well and should remain a solid, if unspectacular duo in 2023, with Edwards-Helaire as an insurance option.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Chiefs’ offense has been consistently dominant through Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the starter, their defense has consistently left something to be desired, ranking 27th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, and 17th over the past five seasons respectively. In the two seasons where the Chiefs were even average on defense, they won the Super Bowl and that is not a coincidence, as their offense is so good their defense only needs to be a decent complementary unit to them to be the best team in the league. There are reasons to believe the Chiefs can continue being a decent unit on that side of the ball in 2023, like they were in 2022, as they return 8 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from a year ago.

The position group with the most change on this defense is their edge defenders. Frank Clark (716 snaps) was one of the two of their top-10 in terms of snaps to not return in 2023, while Carlos Dunlap (571 snaps), who fell just outside their top-10, also was not brought back this off-season. Both were decent players a year ago, with PFF grades of 67.2 and 66.4 respectively, but the Chiefs used their first round pick on Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah and signed free agent Charles Omenihu to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal and both could be comparable replacements.

Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu are also much younger than Dunlap and Clark, who were going into their age 34 and age 30 seasons respectively, and, as a result, they have the upside to be better than Dunlap and Clark were a year ago. Anudike-Uzomah is obviously a rookie with a high upside and, even with Omenihu going into his 5th season in the league, after being selected in the 5th round in 2019, he’s still only in his age 26 season and could have further untapped upside as well.

Omenihu’s run defense has left something to be desired throughout his career, finishing below 60 in PFF run defense grade in all four seasons in the league, and, in part because of that, he’s been limited to 479 snaps per season, with a max of 572 snaps in a season, coming last season, but he’s also consistently rushed the passer effectively, exceeding 60 in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including pass rush grades of 81.8 and 75.3 over the past two seasons respectively, a stretch in which he has a 12.8% pressure rate, despite lining up on the interior in obvious passing situations somewhat frequently, having the size to do so at 6-5 280. The Chiefs like to use three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, so Omenihu will fit in well and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he set a career high in snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2023.

The Chiefs also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pass rusher, taking George Karlaftis 30th overall. He immediately played a big role as a rookie, seeing 729 snaps, and while he was mediocre overall, with a 52.0 PFF grade, he should remain in a big role in year two and has the upside to take a big step forward. Michael Danna also remains as a holdover, after playing 471 snaps a year ago. A 5th round pick in 2020, Danna has turned into a decent rotational player, with grades of 61.8, 61.7, and 67.4 on PFF on snap counts of 334, 534, and 471 in his three seasons in the league respectively. 

Danna should remain a decent rotational player in 2023, with the upside for more, still only in his age 26 season. The Chiefs also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Stephen F Austin’s BJ Thompson to give themselves even more edge depth, though he won’t be anything more than a deep reserve unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and, in that case, he could easily struggle if forced into a significant role. This is an unspectacular edge defender group, but they’re not a bad group either and they have plenty of upside, with all of their key players being 26 or under and a pair of first round picks from the last two drafts.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Part of the reason why the Chiefs frequently play three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, with one lined up on the interior, is because they lack depth at the interior defender position, especially for interior pass rushers. Fortunately, they do have Chris Jones, who is one of the best pass rushers in the league regardless of position and who almost never comes off the field, ranking 2nd among interior defenders with 920 snaps played last season. 

Jones also ranked 2nd among interior defenders with an overall 91.5 PFF grade last season, playing the run at a high level and excelling with 15.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s nothing new for Jones, who has exceeded 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including three seasons over 90, while totaling 63 sacks, 75 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 91 games (47.6 snaps per game) over that stretch. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Jones in 2023.

Behind him, the Chiefs’ options are limited. Khalen Saunders (421 snaps) and Derrick Nnadi (388 snaps) played the second and third most snaps at the position last season, but Saunders is no longer with the team, after posting a decent 60.2 PFF grade, while Nnadi struggled mightily last season with a 41.3 PFF grade, especially struggling as a pass rusher with just a 2.4% pressure rate. Nnadi has been better in the past against the run, but he’s finished below average on PFF in back-to-back seasons and has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.7% pressure rate in five seasons in the league, since being selected in the 3rd round by the Chiefs in 2018. Nnadi will almost definitely start in base packages, but only for lack of a better option. 

After Jones and Nnadi, the Chiefs’ top veteran reserve option is Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 66.2 PFF grade on 518 snaps as a rookie, but then fell all the way to 43.3 on 501 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, before suffering a torn ACL midway through the 2022 season, limiting him to mediocre 149 snaps in 5 games. Wharton should be healthy for the start of the 2023 season, but he might not be 100% right away and he’s now three years removed from his last healthy season as a solid rotational reserve, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. The Chiefs also used a 6th round pick on Texas’ Keondre Coburn, who could have to play a role as a rookie, even despite being a late round pick. Chris Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs retain their top-2 off ball linebackers from a year ago, which is a good thing, as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay played well in significant roles, with PFF grades of 75.7 and 69.6 on snap counts of 1,118 and 607 respectively. Both were recent second round picks, Bolton in 2021 and Gay in 2020, and both flashed potential earlier in their career, both career best years in 2022, with Bolton playing 623 snaps and receiving a 69.2 PFF grade as a rookie and Gay playing snap counts of 269 and 436 over his first two seasons in the league and receiving grades of 68.1 and 55.7 respectively. It’s possible both won’t repeat the best year of their career again in 2023, but it’s also possible that they continue developing and become even better. They are one of the best young linebacker duos in the league.

Despite already having Bolton and Gay, the Chiefs were surprisingly able to sign former Charger Drue Tranquill to a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency. Tranquill played 977 snaps last season and received a 66.5 grade from PFF and, only in his age 28 season, seemed like he should have been getting a starting job somewhere, but in Kansas City he’ll be the third linebacker, a role in which the now departed Darius Harris only played 292 snaps last season (64.4 PFF grade), mostly when Gay was out for a 4-game stretch due to suspension.

Tranquill also had a PFF grade of 66.6 on 382 snaps in 2019 and a PFF grade of 64.6 on 560 snaps in 2021, with an injury plagued year in between, so he is relatively proven and gives the Chiefs great depth in case an injury strikes ahead of him on the depth chart. The Chiefs also used a 3rd round pick in 2022 on Leo Chenal and he showed some promise on 262 snaps as a rookie, so they have a very deep and talented group at this position. 

Grade: A-

Secondary

The other starter the Chiefs lost in this defense this off-season was safety Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts, but whose departure the Chiefs were prepared for, using a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Bryan Cook, who flashed potential on 341 snaps as a rookie and who profiles as a solid starter long-term. He will start next to Justin Reid, who remains the starter after being added on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. 

Reid was a 3rd round pick of the Texans in 2018 and immediately had back-to-back above average seasons in his first two years in the league, with grades of 75.2 and 76.7 on snap counts of 906 and 916 respectively, but he came relatively cheap to the Chiefs last off-season because he had back-to-back down years in 2020 and 2021, with grades of 60.7 and 50.9 on snap counts of 888 and 780 respectively. However, Reid bounced back with a 73.2 PFF grade on 1,112 snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2022 and, still only in his age 26 season, he has a good chance to remain a solid starter, even if there’s some risk of him regressing, given his inconsistent past. 

The Chiefs also added veteran Mike Edwards this off-season, to potentially push the young Bryan Cook for the starting job, but most likely to just be an above average third starter, and they also used a 4th round pick on Virginia Tech’s Chamarri Conner, to give them even more depth at the position. Edwards, a 3rd round pick of the Buccaneers in 2019, was a de facto third safety for much of his time in Tampa Bay, but he did flash potential with grades of 77.0 and 73.6 on snap counts of 189 and 532 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, though he was inconsistent and could never translate it to a larger role, with grades of 58.2 and 56.7 on snap counts of 614 and 814 in 2019 and 2022 respectively as well, with his down 2022 season likely being the cause of his deflated free agent market (1-year, 3 million). Still, he’s great depth to have.

At cornerback, the Chiefs return their top-4 from a year ago in terms of snaps played, L’Jarius Sneed (1,106 snaps), Trent McDuffie (683 snaps), Jaylen Watson (604 snaps) and Joshua Williams (437 snaps), and all four are young players with the upside to be better. McDuffie, Watson, and Williams were all drafted just last year, going in the 1st, 7th, and 4th round respectively. McDuffie was a starter in 2022, missing six games with injury, but averaging 62.1 snaps per game when he played and showing the talent that made him a first round pick, with a 73.6 PFF grade. He should remain a starter in 2023 and has the upside to develop into an above average starting cornerback for years to come. 

L’Jarius Sneed is also likely to remain the other starter, after posting a 76.1 grade in 2022. The relative elder of this group, Sneed was a 4th round pick in 2020, flashing talent with a 72.9 PFF grade on 410 snaps as a rookie, posting a 64.1 PFF grade on 918 snaps as a starter in 2021, before breaking out with his career best year in 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter and, given that, he could regress a little in 2023, but, even if he does, he should at least remain a solid starter and, only in his age 26 season, he could easily remain an above average starter for years to come. 

McDuffie and Sneed starting will leave Watson and Williams competing for the third cornerback job. Watson played more snaps last season, but Williams was the better player (60.6 PFF grade vs. 56.1) and was the higher draft pick, so he might have the inside track on the third cornerback job in year two. Williams might not have a huge upside, but he seems like a better option than Watson, who was actually mostly a liability for this secondary last season, even in limited action. This is a young secondary overall, but they have a lot of upside and depth and it’s generally a solid group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Not a lot has changed for the defending Super Bowl Champions, who should remain one of the top few contenders in the league again in 2023, with Patrick Mahomes leading an offense that will remain dominant as long as they have their franchise quarterback on the field, and a defense that looks likely to be a decent complementary unit again in 2023. It’s a tough path out of the AFC for any contender and there’s a good reason why we haven’t had a repeat champ in two decades, but the Chiefs have as good of a chance as anyone to make it back to the top. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West

Cleveland Browns 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Quarterback

The Browns thought they had solved their long standing quarterback issues when they selected quarterback Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and then watched him instantly be a solid starter as a rookie, completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.66 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Mayfield regressed in year two, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but seemed to bounce back in year three, completing 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions during the 2020 regular season and then leading the Browns to their first post-season victory since 1994. 

However, Mayfield again regressed in an injury plagued 2021 season, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With Mayfield’s rookie contract nearing the end and his salary about to increase significantly in 2022, the Browns opted to move on from Mayfield and shoot higher at the quarterback position. Mayfield’s tenure as the Browns’ starting quarterback coincided with their most successful team stretch in years, but the Browns also had the most talent around the quarterback that they had in years and they felt that Mayfield, who only averaged 32.1 pass attempts per start on a run-heavy team, was not the reason they were winning and that, in order to get to their ultimate goal, they needed an upgrade at the position. 

In order to find that upgrade, the Browns took a controversial approach, not only entering the running to trade for disgraced Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, a highly talented quarterback with a very concerning off-the-field situation, but also going above and beyond to acquire Watson, outbidding all other teams by giving up a trio of first round picks and guaranteeing Watson a long-term 5-year, 230 million dollar deal upon arrival in Cleveland. The Browns also did that without first finding a home for Mayfield and ended up having to eat most of Mayfield’s salary just to get a late round pick back for him in a trade, when they sent him to the Carolina Panthers. 

Watson missed his entire 2021 season because of his off-the-field situation and was set to face a significant suspension in his first season in Cleveland, but the Browns still paid him 45.3675 million in his first year with the team and structured it in a way that he would make almost all of that money even if he was suspended for all of most of the 2023 season. That suspension ended up being 11 games and, while Watson returned for the final 6 games of the season, he seemed like a shell of himself, completing just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 7.47 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries and accumulating an overall 55.3 PFF grade. The Browns did go 3-3 in those games, as opposed to 4-7 without Watson, but that was primarily because their defense was much better in the games that Watson played. 

In Watson’s last full season in 2020, he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries and accumulating an overall 92.4 PFF grade. That was in line with how he played in 2018 and 2019, when he completed a combined 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, while rushing for 5.33 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 181 carries and receiving PFF grades of 82.7 and 81.3 respectively in those two seasons. 

Still only in his age 28 season, Watson has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, after another year of building chemistry with his new teammates and learning this new scheme, but it’s concerning that he’s two seasons removed from his last impressive season, given how much the Browns have invested and risked to get Watson as their quarterback, and it’s possible Watson will never be as good as he was in Houston, in a new city, with new teammates, having permanently damaged his reputation around the league.

Jacoby Brissett, who the Browns added to be Watson’s replacement when he was suspended last year, actually outplayed Watson by a pretty big amount, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts. With Watson set to play a full season in 2023, Brissett wasn’t retained this off-season, so the pressure will be on Watson to bounce back to something resembling his old form, with his backup likely to be Josh Dobbs, a 2017 4th round pick who made the first two starts of his career last season and who has just a 66.6 QB rating on 85 pass attempts in his career. The Browns also used a 5th round pick on UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson as a potential long-term backup and there’s a chance he could beat out Dobbs as early as year one, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into extended starting action. There’s plenty of upside here, but plenty of downside as well.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

If the Browns are unable to be true contenders this year, the blame will likely fall on the quarterback, as the Browns still have one of the more talented rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. Their biggest strength is probably their offensive line, which has been a big strength for the past several years, including a 2022 campaign in which they ranked 7th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 8th in team run blocking grade, making life easier for the spot starter Brissett and making Watson’s struggles even more concerning. With all five starters returning from a year ago, I would expect more of the same in 2023.

In fact, not only are all five starters returning from a year ago, but four of the five starters have been together for three seasons, with the only relatively new member of this offensive line being Ethan Pocic, who they signed last off-season on a cheap 1-year, 1.1875 million dollar deal as a replacement option for retiring long-time Browns center JC Tretter. Pocic proved to be a steal on that one-year deal, breaking out with by far a career best 78.9 PFF grade, 3rd in the NFL among eligible centers. There’s a reason Pocic was available so cheap last off-season though, as Pocic was a mediocre and injury prone starter for most of his the first five seasons of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons, with no seasons above 70, and 24 games missed due to injury. 

Pocic was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and his two best seasons before joining the Browns were 2020 (62.4 in 14 starts) and 2021 (67.3 in 10 starts), so it’s possible Pocic is just a late bloomer who will continue being an above average starter going forward, but, even if that’s the case, Pocic is still as unlikely to be quite as good as he was a year ago again in 2023 and even last season he did miss another 4 games with injury, so he’s a good bet to miss more time at some point this season, and it’s possible he could regress significantly. The Browns only paid 18 million on a 3-year deal to keep him this off-season, which is not a bad deal at all considering his upside, but it seems more likely than not that he won’t be as good as he was a year ago again in 2023.

Fortunately, the Browns do have a couple starters who could be better this year than a year ago, most notably right guard Wyatt Teller. Teller wasn’t bad in 2022 with a 70.3 PFF grade, but that’s a big drop off from the 92.7 grade he had in 2020 and the 84.9 grade he had in 2021 and that drop off was likely caused by injuries that caused him to miss two games and seemed to limit him in several others. Still only in his age 29 season, Teller has a good chance to bounce back and be better in 2023 if he can stay healthier. 

Right tackle Jack Conklin is also coming off of a down year, as his 66.7 PFF grade in 14 starts last season was actually the worst of his 7-year career. With five seasons over 70 and three seasons over 80 in his career, and only going into his age 29 season, Conklin would seem to have a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, but he does have a concerning injury history, with 21 games missed in the past five seasons combined, including a torn patellar tendon that ended his 2021 season after 7 starts and that could have easily been the cause of his down 2022 season. It’s possible he’ll never be the same again after that injury, which is one of the most serious an athlete can suffer, but I wouldn’t expect him to decline any further at the moment, so he should remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more if he can find his old form. 

Left guard Joel Bitonio was probably their best offensive lineman a year ago, with a 87.5 PFF grade on 17 starts, and he has been one of the best guards in the league for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so there is some concern that he could decline, at least somewhat in 2023. He’s exceeded 70 on PFF in all but one of his 9 seasons in the league, all with the Browns who selected him in the 2nd round in 2014, and his last three seasons have actually been the best 3-year stretch of his career, with PFF grades above 80 in all 3 seasons, including a career best 93.6 as recently as 2021, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2023, he is declining from a pretty high level and should at least remain an above average starter. However, a noticeable decline from him would hurt this offensive line at least a little bit.

Left tackle Jedrick Wills was probably their weakest starter a year ago, which has been the case for a few years, since Wills entered the league in 2020, but that’s mostly just because of how good the rest of this offensive line has been, as he has finished with a grade in the 60s on PFF in all three seasons in the league and has the upside for more, as a former 10th overall pick who is still only going into his age 24 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2023 proved to be the best year of Wills’ career thus far and a significant breakout is a possibility as well. Even if he doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a capable blindside protector.

For reserves, the Browns top options are swing tackle James Hudson and interior reserve Nick Harris. Hudson was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played snap counts of 296 and 303 over the past two seasons and hasn’t been horrible, with grades of 57.3 and 57.8 respectively, which he could prove upon going forward, given his upside, but he also could be a liability if he had to start for an extended period of time. 

Harris, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2020 and was supposed to be their starting center in 2022, but he suffered an injury in the pre-season that knocked him out for the year and opened up the job for Pocic. Harris still has upside, but he’s also only made two career starts thus far and he’s coming off of a significant injury, so it’s questionable how he would fare if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. The Browns’ depth options could be better, but they have one of the best starting offensive lines in the league and, even if they lose a starter or two and have to replace them with a mediocre reserve, they could still remain an above average offensive line.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Browns also have a strong running game, led by top back Nick Chubb, who took 302 carries for 1,525 yards (5.05 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last season, finishing 3rd in the league in rushing. That’s nothing new for Chubb, who has excelled throughout his career as a lead back, especially behind this offensive line, rushing for 5.24 YPC and 48 touchdowns on 1,210 carries in five seasons in the league, including 5.35 YPC and 32 touchdowns on 720 carries over the past three seasons. In terms of PFF grade, Chubb has exceeded 80 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a career best 90.3 last season, 2nd among eligible running backs. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, the 2018 2nd round pick should continue excelling as a runner this season.

Kareem Hunt actually had 123 carries as Chubb’s backup last season, as the Browns were a run heavy team, ranking 5th in the NFL with 532 carries. Hunt is no longer with the team, but the Browns are likely to pass more in 2023 anyway with Watson in his first full season as the starter and Watson will take off and run often by himself, so I wouldn’t expect the Browns’ #2 running back to get nearly as many carries this season. Hunt also only had a 3.80 YPC average last season anyway, so he won’t be missed too much. However, Chubb has never done much on passing downs (0.96 yards per route run, 119 catches in 75 career games), so there will be passing down work available for backup running backs.

Jerome Ford, a 5th round pick in 2022, is the leading candidate for the top reserve role, but he only played 14 snaps as a rookie, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role, even if he does have the upside to take a step forward in year two. Ford caught 21 passes for 220 yards in his final collegiate season in 2021, so he has shown some potential in passing situations, but he probably won’t have as much as Hunt did (1.29 yards per route run average for his career), so Chubb could see a few more balls go his way through the air this season.

Behind Ford, options are even more limited. John Kelly was a 6th round pick by the Rams in 2018, but has just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries (3.00 YPC) in his career. Demetric Felton is a hybrid running back/wide receiver and could play a role as a passing down option, but he only has 8 career carries and 20 career catches on 205 career snaps in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021 and is probably not capable of handling a big load as a runner at just 5-9 190. Behind Kelly and Felton, this depth chart consists of recent undrafted free agents with no career touches. The Browns have a great lead back in Nick Chubb, but he’s not great in passing down situations and their depth behind him is questionable, so they would be in trouble if Chubb missed extended time and they could benefit from adding a veteran before training camp to give them added depth.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Browns receiving corps was a bit of a weakness last season. Top wide receiver Amari Cooper had a great year, with a 78/1160/9 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 81.2 PFF grade, producing well despite inconsistent quarterback play. With a 1.88 career yards per route run average, a career 81/1120/7 average slash line per 17 games, and seven seasons above 70 on PFF, last season was not out of the ordinary for Cooper, who should continue playing at a similar level again in 2023, still only in his age 29 season. However, the rest of this wide receiver group was mediocre last season, so the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman and traded away the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital to acquire 2021 2nd round pick Elijah Moore from the Jets. 

Moore is the much more likely of the two to make an impact in 2023. He flashed a lot of potential with a 71.2 PFF grade, 43/538/5 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, but he fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season in year two and had just a 57.5 PFF grade, 37/446/1 slash line, and 0.90 yards per route run in a reduced role, before ultimately getting traded this off-season. Only in his age 23 season, Moore still has a lot of potential and the Browns clearly value him, trading away significant draft capital for him, despite him only having two years left on his contract. He could prove to be a disappointment, but he also has breakout potential in what could be a big role as the #2 wide receiver on what should be a much pass heavier offense this season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones was the #2 wide receiver last season with a 61/839/3 slash line on 96 targets, but his 1.46 yards per route run average was middling at best and his career yards per route run of 1.56 isn’t much better, so the 2020 6th round pick would probably be better off as the third wide receiver. The rookie Tillman could also push for a role in year one, which would also cut into Peoples-Jones playing time and targets. 

The Browns also used 3rd round picks in 2021 and 2022 on wide receivers Anthony Schwartz and David Bell and Bell actually played 514 snaps as the third receiver last season, but they have averaged just 0.70 yards per route run and 0.82 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, with Moore and Tillman being brought in, as well as 6th round rookie Michael Woods, both Schwartz and Bell are likely to be on the roster bubble this season and are unlikely to make much of an impact even if they do make the team. Bell moving from the #3 wide receiver role, in which he struggled mightily in 2022 (113th out of 115 eligible wide receivers on PFF), to potentially being off the roster shows how this group is now significantly deeper than a year ago.

With inconsistent play at wide receiver behind Amari Cooper last season, tight end David Njoku was actually second on the team with a 1.55 yards per route run average, leading to a 58/628/4 slash line in 14 games, a career best in both yards per route run and yards per game. His 73.7 PFF grade was also the best of his career. A first round pick in 2017, Njoku hasn’t quite lived up to the billing, but he has exceeded 60 on PFF in every healthy season in the league and he’s gotten more playing time in recent years after splitting snaps earlier in his career. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a solid, if unspectacular tight end option. The Browns are deeper at wide receiver than a year ago so Njoku might not have the same target share, but there also probably will be more targets to go route on what will likely be a more pass-heavy team this year.

Harrison Bryant played 563 snaps as the #2 tight end last season, as the Browns ran two-tight sets often to mask their lack of wide receiver depth. They probably won’t run as many this season, so there will likely be fewer snaps for a #2 tight end, and Bryant has been a decent option throughout his career, as the 2020 4th round pick has played 518 snaps per season, holding up as a blocker, averaging 1.08 yards per route run route, and posting overall grades of 60.7, 64.8, and 59.3 respectively on PFF, but the Browns also still felt the need to add another tight end this off-season, signing veteran Jordan Akins, a former starter with the Texans. Akins has never exceeded 500 yards receiving in a season and he’s now going into his age 31 season, but he does have a decent 1.27 yards per route average for his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so he could contribute in a limited role, at a deep tight end position. This isn’t a great receiving corps, but they are definitely better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Browns still finished the 2022 season 8th in offensive DVOA, even with Deshaun Watson missing most of the season and struggling upon his return. With Watson having bounce back potential in his first year as a full season starter in Cleveland, the Browns’ offense has a good chance to be a high level unit in 2023, but their defense was a problem a year ago, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. Fortunately, there are reasons to be optimistic on this side of the ball. For one, defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Browns are more talented on defense than their rank last season, so they have a good chance to regress to the mean and be at least an average defense this season. 

They also should be healthier, after having the 9th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense in 2022, and they have made some key additions, including new talented defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. From an on-the-field standpoint, probably their biggest addition was interior defensive Dalvin Tomlinson, who comes over from the Vikings on a 4-year, 57 million dollar deal, giving the Browns a huge upgrade at a position where the Browns best player a year ago was Taven Bryan, who only had a 60.0 grade on 642 snaps and who is no longer on the team. 

Aside from Bryant, the Browns top interior defenders a year ago 2020 3rd round pick Jordan Elliott (703 snaps), 2022 4th round pick Perrion Winfrey (342 snaps), and 2021 4th round pick Tommy Togiai (225 snaps), who had grades of 40.4, 37.3, and 41.6 respectively on PFF. They’re all young, remain on the roster, and still have upside, but they have a long way to go towards being even decent rotational players, with Elliott also receiving grades of 55.3 and 41.6 on snap counts of 307 and 464 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and Togiai struggling mightily on just 125 snaps as a rookie before struggling mightily again last season.

Tomlinson, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, on an average of 610 snaps per game, and he should continue doing so in 2023, still only going in his age 29 season. He’s at his best as a run defender, but he’s become a better pass rusher in recent years, with 8.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. He’s a huge addition at a position of need. The Browns also added Baylor’s Siaka Ika in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and he will compete to play a role right away. He will probably have some growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the Browns’ other young interior defenders. 

The Browns also took fliers on Trysten Hill and Maurice Hurst in free agency and they will compete for roles as well, though they could just as easily wind up off the final roster. Hill was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries and inconsistent play have limited him to 733 snaps played in 31 games in four seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 25 and he has shown a little potential with grades of 65.3 and 62.8 over the past two seasons, but that has been on snap counts of just 171 and 229 respectively, so he’s still a projection to anything more than a deep rotational role.

Hurst has also had injury issues throughout his career, only playing in 42 of 82 possible games in five seasons in the league, including just two games (41 snaps) over the past two seasons. In his healthiest seasons, he has received grades of 71.4, 73.1, and 77.9 on PFF on snap counts of 472 snaps, 522 snaps, and 277 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, playing the run well and managing a 7.7% pressure rate, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so there’s potential here if he can stay healthy. However, that’s a big if and it’s possible that injuries have sapped his abilities and that, even if he can stay on the field, he might not be as effective as he once was. The Browns added talent to the interior defender position this off-season, particularly free agent Dalvin Tomlinson, and they have options with upside aside from him, but none of those other options are guarantees, as it’s a mix of inexperienced and unproven young players and players with significant injury histories. 

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Browns also signed edge defender Za’Darius Smith in free agency to replace free agent departure Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was allowed to leave despite a 75.8 PFF grade a year ago, but he also consistently had injury problems, including injuries that limited him to just 494 snaps played in 12 games last season, and Smith is a similar caliber player who will likely be more durable and who could even prove to be an upgrade over Clowney, who was good, but not great in his tenure in Cleveland.

Excluding an injury plagued 2021 season, Smith has played 49.9 snaps per game while playing 64 of a possible 65 games in his last 4 seasons and topping 70 overall on PFF in all four of those seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 44.5 sacks, 71 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Smith is now heading into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, with a 82.2 PFF grade in 2022, second best of his career. Even if he isn’t quite as good as that again in 2023, he should remain an above average every down starter for the Browns, barring an unexpected massive decline.

Smith will start next to Myles Garrett, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Garrett has had a grade of 80 or higher on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including back-to-back seasons over 90 over the past two seasons, when he has had 32 sacks, 27 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 33 games. Very much in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, Garrett should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates going into this season.

Depth was a problem for the Browns at the edge defender position a year ago, with Alex Wright posting just a 38.4 grade on 543 snaps as the top reserve, but the 2022 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league and he’s unlikely to have to play as play of a role anyway, with the Browns adding veteran Ogbo Okoronkwo in free agency on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal and using a 4th round pick on Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire. McGuire might be too raw to contribute beyond a deep rotational role in year one, but Okoronkwo is a talented rotational edge defender who figures to have a positive impact.

Okoronkwo was buried on the depth chart in a talented position group early in his career with the Rams, despite being a 5th round pick in 2018, playing just 528 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league combined, but he impressed with a 12.5% pressure rate in limited action and carried that into a larger role with the Texans in 2022, playing 517 snaps, receiving a 75.1 overall grade from PFF, and totaling 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in a part-time role. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. WIth Garrett, Smith, and Okoronkwo as the Browns’ top-3 edge defenders and Wright and McGuire having upside behind them, this is an impressive position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The group where the Browns had the most injuries on defense last season was their linebacking corps. The Browns entered last season with a pair of talented every down options, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a good third option Sione Takitaki, who could also play a bigger role if needed. However, Walker went down from the year with injury after 120 snaps in 3 games, excelling with a 82.7 PFF grade, while Owusu-Koramoah also had a solid season with a 65.5 PFF grade, but was limited to 535 snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Takitaki also had a solid 66.5 grade in an extended role of 41.5 snaps per game, but he also missed time, limited to 12 games, leaving Deion Jones (422 snaps), Jacob Phillips (320 snaps), Tony Fields (276 snaps), Jordan Kunaszyk (101 snaps), and Jermaine Carter (93 snaps) to all see snaps and all of them struggled, finishing below 60 on PFF. 

Walker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Takitaki should all be back healthy for 2023 and have the potential to be the above average group they would have been last season if they had been healthy. Walker’s grade in his limited action last season was a fluke for him, as he’s never even exceeded 70 on PFF in another season, but he’s also exceeded 60 on all but one of his six seasons in the league, including a 69.1 grade on 701 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021. Still only in his age 28 season, having played an average of 726 snaps per season in his four seasons prior to last year, Walker should remain at least a solid player in close to an every down role in 2023.

Owusu-Koramoah has the highest upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2021, had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie, and then had a grade of 69.5 through 7 games last season before getting hurt. He’s still pretty inexperienced with an average of 566 snaps played per season played in two years in the league, but he has a high upside and is only going into his age 24 season, so he could easily take a step forward and be an above average player in an every down role for a full season in 2023.

Takitaki, meanwhile, has never played more in a season than the 498 snaps he played last season, but the 2019 3rd round pick has received grades of 64.4, 71.2, 67.5, and 66.5 in his four seasons in the league and would seem to have the upside to hold up in a larger role for an extended period of time if he ever got the chance without getting hurt himself, like he did a year ago. Still only going into his age 28 season, he is one of the best third linebackers in the league and, with the Browns running a 4-3 defense, he will play at least a part-time role in base packages, while providing useful depth in case Walker or Owusu-Koramoah get hurt again. With his rookie deal expired, the Browns kept him on a reasonable 1-year, 2.43 million dollar deal in free agency. 

The Browns also still have 2020 3rd round pick Jacob Phillips, 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, and 2019 undrafted free agent Kunaszyk, but Phillips has mostly struggled while playing just 612 total career snaps in three seasons in the league, Fields didn’t play a snap as a rookie, before struggling in a limited role last season, while Kunaszyk has only played 121 defensive snaps in four seasons in the league and has shown very little promise. They’re not horrible depth options though, at a position group with a talented top trio, which should stay a lot healthier than a year ago, when their depth was exposed in a way that is more than any team would expect to have to deal with.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Browns overhauled the safety position this off-season. John Johnson wasn’t bad with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts last season (1,056 snaps), but he wasn’t worth the 9.75 million he was owed for 2023, so the Browns understandably let him go and they also let go of Ronnie Harrison, who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 259 snaps. In their place, the Browns signed veteran starters Juan Thornhill and Rodney McLeod in free agency, to contracts worth 21 million over 3 years and 1.3175 million over 1 year respectively. They will compete for the two starting roles with top holdover Grant Delpit, who had a 63.6 PFF grade in 17 starts (1,086 snaps). 

Delpit was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and, while the early part of his career was injury plagued, costing him 18 games in his first two seasons, including his entire rookie season, he still had a decent 63.3 grade in 15 starts when on the field in his second season in the league in 2021 and he continued that in a healthier 2022 season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Delpit should remain at least a decent starter in 2023, with the upside for more if he takes a step forward and has the best season of his career in his fourth season in the league. He will likely keep his starting job, even with free agent additions Thornhill and McLeod both being experienced starters.

Thornhill’s contract suggests he’s much more likely to start than McLeod and he’s been a solid starter for most of his career, since going in the 2nd round in 2019. He slipped to 52.8 on PFF in 2020 after his 2019 season ended with an ACL tear, but, aside from that, he has grades of 71.5, 70.2, and most recently 67.1 in his career and should remain a solid starter in his age 28 season in 2023. McLeod, however, was actually the better player a year ago, with a 80.1 grade in 15 starts. 

McLeod came cheap because he’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s been a solid starter for years, with 122 starts in 124 games in the past nine seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF in each of those seasons, including six seasons over 70 and what was actually a career best in 2022, despite his age. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, especially given his age, but he could still remain a starting caliber player and, even if he doesn’t secure a starting job, with Delpit and Thornhill being the favorites, McLeod is still a great insurance and situational option to have.

The Browns also have a good trio at the cornerback position. Denzel Ward is supposed to be the best of the bunch, signed to a 5-year, 100.5 million dollar extension that makes him the 2nd highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he did fall to 56.3 in PFF grade last year and was part of the problem for this defense. However, there’s a reason he got that contract in the first place, as he received grades of 78.9, 69.9, 72.8, and 76.9 from PFF in his first four seasons in the league, after going 4th overall in 2018, and his struggles in 2022 were likely injury related, so he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 26 season. Durability has been a problem for him throughout a career, missing at least two games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, so he’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this year, but he has a good chance to be an above average starter again when on the field.

Greg Newsome was also a first round pick, selected 26th overall in 2021. He hasn’t been bad through two seasons in the league, with grades of 68.1 and 69.1 on snap counts of 691 and 907 respectively, and he has the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he may have been surpassed on the depth chart, to no fault of his own, by Martin Emerson, a 2022 3rd round pick who had an impressive 72.5 grade on 783 snaps as a rookie. Both Emerson and Newsome will play big roles in 2023 and both have a lot of upside, but it’s possible Emerson ends up as the de facto #2 cornerback, with Newsome being more of a slot specialist.

Behind their top-3 at cornerback, the Browns have 2021 6th round pick Thomas Graham, who has flashed potential, but who has played just 149 snaps in his career, 2020 undrafted free agent AJ Green, who has been up and down in 319 career snaps, 2018 undrafted free agent Mike Ford, a career reserve who has never played more than 316 snaps in a season, and 5th round rookie Cameron Mitchell, who is likely too raw to make a significant impact as a rookie. Those are all underwhelming options, so the Browns could be in a little bit of trouble if they suffer one or especially multiple injuries at the cornerback position, but this is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns are stuck in by far the tougher of the two conferences, but even still they are a very talented team that has some sleeper potential. Their potential hinges on quarterback Deshaun Watson returning to form, or at least close to it, but the Browns surround him with a great offensive line and running game, and an improved receiving corps, on an offense that ranked 8th in DVOA last season, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Their defense, on the other hand, ranked just 23rd in DVOA last season, but they should be better this season.

Dalvin Tomlinson upgrades the interior defender position. Za’Darius Smith is likely to be healthier than Jadeveon Clowney at the edge defender position. They’ll likely have better health in the linebacking corps, and they’ll likely get a bounce back year from expected top cornerback Denzel Ward, as well as an improved coaching staff, led by experienced coordinator Jim Schwartz. They have the talent to be an above average unit on defense, as well as on offense, and they should at least compete for a playoff spot, even with as many other contenders as there are in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

In 2019, the Bengals finished with the worst record in the league at 2-14, securing them the #1 pick and elite quarterback prospect Joe Burrow. Burrow took his rookie year lumps on a mediocre team and had about half his season wiped out due to a torn ACL, leading to the Bengals once again being among the worst teams in the league at 4-11-1. However, the Bengals kept building their supporting cast around Burrow through free agency and the draft and Burrow’s play took off upon his return from injury in his second season in the league in 2021. 

In that first season back, Burrow led the Bengals solid 10-7 regular season record and then took the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, coming within a blown 4th quarter lead of winning the whole thing. The Bengals then followed that up with a 12-4-1 season in 2022 in which they narrowly lost in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, with their season ending just short of another Super Bowl appearance. This season looks likely to be another season in contention, with the Bengals returning most of the same roster from a year ago.

He has a lot of help, but quarterback Joe Burrow is obviously what makes this team go, completing 69.2% of his passes for 8.07 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons, while posting grades of 91.7 (2nd among quarterbacks) and 90.8 (3rd) respectively on PFF. Still only in his age 27 season, Burrow should remain one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Bengals need to figure out a long-term extension with him, now eligible after three years in the league, but they do have two years before he could theoretically hit free agency and, while they will almost definitely have to give him a top of the market deal whenever he does sign, Burrow figures to be worth it long-term.

If Burrow happens to get hurt, the Bengals would obviously be in a lot of trouble, turning to veteran backup Trevor Siemian, who has a 81.1 QB rating in 30 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2015. He’s not a terrible backup, but the Bengals obviously don’t want to see him in the game in meaningful situations, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league topping the depth chart.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Two of the biggest additions the Bengals have made around Joe Burrow in recent years is getting him a pair of talented young wide receivers to throw to, adding Tee Higgins in the 2nd round in 2020 and JaMarr Chase in the 1st round in 2021 to a receiving corps that already had Tyler Boyd, a former 1000+ yard receiver in his own right (2018 and 2019). Chase burst onto the scene with a 81/1455/13 slash line as a rookie and then he had a 87/1046/9 slash line in 2022 even though he was limited to 12 games by injury. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had a 67/908/6 slash line as a rookie, a 74/1091/6 slash line in 2021, and a 74/1029/7 slash line in 2022, giving the Bengals one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2022. On most teams, Higgins would be the #1 receiver, but he’s the de facto #2 wide receiver in Cincinnati behind Chase. With Chase and Higgins in only their age 23 and age 24 respectively, they should continue being high level players for years to come and it’s possible that both players could keep getting even better.

With Chase and Higgins coming in, Tyler Boyd has obviously had to take on a smaller role in recent years, but Boyd has still found ways to be productive, with slash lines of 79/841/4, 67/828/5, and 58/762/5 respectively over the past three seasons, with the last two coming on target totals of just 94 and 82. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Boyd in 2023, who would be a #2 and or even a #1 wide receiver on many other teams around the league.

The Bengals haven’t gotten much out of the tight end position in the past few years, with CJ Uzomah putting up a 49/493/5 slash line on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2021 and Hayden Hurst putting up 52/414/2 on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2022, and that figures to remain the same in 2023, with the Bengals only taking a flier on former Vikings tight end Irv Smith in free agency to replace Hurst this off-season. 

Smith was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is still only in his age 25 season, so he has upside and was a worthwhile signing on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal, but his career 1.12 yards per route run average is mediocre even for a tight end, he’s not a great blocker, and he’s missed 29 games with injury in four seasons in the league, so he might not contribute that much. The Bengals probably won’t need him to though, with the top-3 they have at the wide receiver position. Smith figures to be backed up by blocking specialist Drew Sample, who has just a 0.80 yards per route run average for his career.

The Bengals don’t have much need for depth at the wide receiver position, but an injury is always possible and, while 2019 undrafted free agent Trenton Irwin wasn’t horrible with a 1.22 yards per route run average in place of Chase last season, in the first real action of his career, the Bengals still wanted to add more depth at the position this off-season, using 4th and 6th round picks on wide receivers Charles Jones and Andrei Iosivas. Any of their reserves would likely be overmatched in a large role for an extended period of time, but the Bengals have as good of a top pass catching trio as any team in the league and, barring injuries, depth and tight end production won’t be needed much.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the Bengals have built their receiving corps through the draft, they have built their offensive line mostly through free agency. Last off-season, they added center Ted Karras (3 years, 18 million), right guard Alex Cappa (4 years, 35 million), and right tackle La’El Collins (3 years, 21 million) to an offensive line that was obviously a weakness in 2021 even with the Bengals making the Super Bowl. Cappa and Karras were solid in their first season in Cincinnati, with grades of 67.6 and 62.6 respectively, and, while Collins struggled with a 57.9 PFF grade, the Bengals tried again this off-season with former Chiefs tackle Orlando Brown, who they signed to a 4-year, 64.092 million dollar deal. 

Brown’s addition will move Collins to a swing tackle role, a role he’s to be overqualified for even after last year’s down year, as he has 86 career starts, isn’t totally over the hill in his age 30 season, and has surpassed 70 on PFF in three straight healthy seasons prior to 2022. He’s great depth to have, though he has missed 24 games due to injury over the past four seasons combined. While Collins played on the right side, Brown will continue playing left tackle like he did in Kansas City and he will push incumbent Jonah Williams over to right tackle. 

A first round pick in 2019, Williams hasn’t been a bad left tackle in his career, missing his whole rookie season with injury, but making 42 starts over the past three seasons combined, while receiving grades of 70.1, 77.1, and 61.2 respectively from PFF, and he didn’t take the news of Brown’s addition well, initially demanding a trade, understandable as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal without an extension and now will play a position with a lower market value. 

However, Williams is coming off of a down year and could benefit from a move to the right side, while Brown has consistently been an above average offensive tackle throughout his career, starting with 67.8 and 72.0 PFF grades as mostly a right tackle in 2018 and 2019 respectively and 76.5, 75.4, and 75.8 PFF grades as mostly a left tackle in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while never missing a game. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 and he should prove to be a good value at the average annual salary the Bengals signed him at.

At right guard and center respectively, Cappa and Karras should have similar seasons as a year ago. Cappa was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all four seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league in 2019 (62 total starts in those four seasons), with his career best year being a 73.4 PFF grade in 2021. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Cappa should remain a solid, if unspectacular starting right guard. Karras, meanwhile, is similar, making 60 starts over the past 4 seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF all 4 times, with a career best 72.2 in 2021. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little, in which case he could be a little bit of a liability, but he could also easily remain a capable starter at least, not totally over the hill at this point in this career.

The biggest weakness on this offensive line last season was left guard, as 4th round rookie Cordell Volson predictably struggled with a 51.6 grade in 16 starts. He could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s possible he loses his job to Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who was actually the starter as a rookie before Volson. Carman struggled as well, with a 56.3 PFF grade on 462 snaps, which relegated him to playing just 4 snaps as a reserve in year two, but he probably still has a higher upside than Volson and he could benefit from his year on the bench. Left guard could easily remain a position of weakness, but this is a solid offensive line aside from that, thanks primarily to recent free agent additions Orlando Brown, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

With this roster about to get more expensive in the next couple off-seasons, with cheap young players up for big extensions, it originally seemed like the Bengals might opt to cut highly paid highly back Joe Mixon this off-season, ahead of 10.1 million owed in 2023, with a concerning off-the-field situation that didn’t help matters. That seemed less likely when the Bengals let backup Samaje Perine (95 carries, 51 targets, 449 snaps played in 2022) walk in free agency without signing a replacement and then only used a 5th round pick in the draft on the position, taking Illinois’ Chase Brown, and ultimately Mixon is back with the the only team he’s ever known for his 7th season, on a restructured deal that pays him about 6 million this year, plus incentives. 

Mixon has handled heavy volume for this team, with 1314 carries and 231 catches in 80 games in his career, but he’s not really an elite running back who was worth the kind of big money he was getting before. His career 1.26 yards per route run average is helpful on a pass heavy team like the Bengals (1.47 yards per route run in 2022), but his 4.09 career yards per carry average is mediocre and, while he did rank 10th in carry success rate last season at 54%, suggesting he was more efficient than his 3.88 YPC average suggests, that’s also what you would expect from a running back on an offense this good and it’s unclear if Mixon is the kind of back who moves the needle on his own. 

That being said, he is in line for another big workload, with the Bengals seriously lacking other options at the position. Despite only being a 5th round pick, the rookie Brown could be the #2 running back as a rookie, with his top competition being 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, who has 47 career carries, and 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans, who has 17 career carries. None of them figure to have much of a role outside of a few touches here and there, unless Mixon misses time with injury and gets suspended for his off-the-field incidents. Mixon isn’t an overly explosive back and the Bengals depth is a concern, but this isn’t a bad backfield. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bengals have a similar group on defense as well this season. On the defensive line, the Bengals return all four starters and, at the edge defender position in particular, the Bengals also add first round pick Myles Murphy to a position where Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are coming off of PFF grades of 85.0 and 72.4 respectively, but where better depth was needed. Murphy is also big enough at 6-5 268 to line up on the interior in sub packages, allowing the Bengals to get their best four pass rushers on the field together in sub packages.

Hendrickson was added by the Bengals two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal, which has more than paid off. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Hendrickson was a risky signing because he was a one-year wonder with the Saints, showing potential early in his career, but only playing 274 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 72.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2020, excelling as a pass rusher with 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate. 

Hendrickson has continued playing at that level in his new home in Cincinnati though, proving not to be a one-year wonder, with a 72.8 PFF grade and 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate in his first season in town in 2021, before last year’s career best year, in which he had 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate. Hendrickson is not much of a run defender, but his pass rush ability more than makes up for it. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, even if he ends up not being quite as good as his career best 2022 season.

Hubbard also had a career best year in 2022, as the 2018 3rd round pick has previously only finished in the 60s on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. He’s played 741 snaps per season in five seasons in the league though and, even with Myles Murphy being added, he should remain a starter. Unlike Hendrickson, Hubbard is at his best against the run, but he has also added 30.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 75 career games, with 6.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him as well in 2023, even if he also isn’t quite as good as he was in his career best year in 2022.

Cameron Sample (58.0 snaps) and Joseph Assai (55.3 snaps) were their top reserve edge defenders last season, but they had PFF grades of just 58.0 and 55.3 respectively and their roles are in limbo with Murphy being added. Both were relatively high draft picks, Sample going in the 4th round in 2021 and Assai in the 3rd in that same draft, but neither has done much thus far in their career, with Sample struggling like he did last season on 310 snaps as a rookie as well and Assai missing his entire rookie season with injury, before struggling in his first year back last season. Sample and Assai could still have upside and will compete for deep reserve snaps in 2023, but this group is led by a top trio of Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Murphy, who are one of the top edge rushers in the league, a starting caliber edge rusher, and a first round rookie respectively, so they won’t need much else beyond those three, barring injuries.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Not much changed at the interior defender position this off-season, which is a good thing because the Bengals have a pair of above average starters at the position. BJ Hill received a 65.8 grade on 815 snaps and, while fellow starter DJ Reader was limited to 397 snaps in 10 games, he excelled with a 87.3 PFF grade and should be healthier this season. For Reader, it was his third season over 80 in the past four years and he’s exceeded 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league. 

The 6-3 347 pound Reader is predictably at his best against the run, but also has added 8.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 92 career games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this year. Durability has been a concern for much of his career, with 22 games missed over the past seven seasons, but I would still expect him to be healthier than a year ago. BJ Hill, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three seasons over 70, with 564 snaps played per season in his career. Also in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Unfortunately, the Bengals depth at this position is concerning. They used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on Zachary Carter, but he struggled mightily in year one with a 32.1 PFF grade on 395 snaps and, even if he takes a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to be even a capable rotational player. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ other top reserve, veteran Josh Tupou (272 snaps), is a solid run defender at times, but only has a career 4.8% pressure rate and has not been as good against the run in recent years, leading to back-to-back seasons below 60 overall on PFF, even as a rotational player. He figures to continue being a decent early down run stuffer at best, with minimal upside. Reader and Hill make this a good position group, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Things remain the same in the linebacking corps, where the only three players who saw more than a few snaps last season, Logan Wilson (954 snaps), Germaine Pratt (722 snaps), and Akeem Davis-Gaither (228 snaps), all return for 2023. Wilson and Pratt both had career best years in 2022, as the 2020 3rd round pick Wilson received PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, on snap counts of 343 and 707 respectively, before jumping to 72.7 in a breakout third season in the league in a career high snaps in 2022, while the 2019 3rd round pick Pratt had previously posted 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 grades on PFF over his first three seasons in the league respectively, before jumping all the way to 80.6 in a breakout fourth season in the league, also on a career high snaps. 

With Wilson and Pratt both going into their age 27 seasons, both could have permanently turned a corner and could continue being above average starting linebackers going forward, but it seems unlikely that both players will repeat by far the best years of their respective careers and the possibility that one or both drops off significantly is pretty high. Davis-Gaithers is also pretty young, as the 2020 4th round pick also heads into his age 27 season. He’s only played 250 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, but he’s been pretty decent in a limited role and the Bengals won’t need much more out of him, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. This young linebacking corps has upside, with their top two players both coming off above average years, but those were also career best years for both players that they could have trouble repeating.

Grade: B+

Secondary

By far the biggest changes on this Bengals defense this off-season are in the secondary. At safety, both of the Bengals’ starters from a year ago, Jessie Bates (76.8 PFF grade on 1,016 snaps) and Vonn Bell (66.3 PFF grade on 1,023 snaps), are no longer with the team. The Bengals knew both were set to hit free agency this off-season and planned ahead, using their first round pick a year ago on safety Daxton Hill, who will become a starter in year two after playing just 130 snaps as a rookie, but I don’t think they were anticipating losing both Bates and Bell, as they don’t have a good replacement plan for the other safety spot.

The Bengals gave a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal to veteran Nick Scott and he is likely the favorite for the other starting job, but the 2019 7th round pick has made just 17 starts in four seasons in the league, while performing at a middling level at best, including a 54.2 PFF grade in his only full season as a starter in 2022 (984 snaps), so he would likely struggle if he was the starter for the whole season. The Bengals did use a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Jordan Battle as competition, but he too could struggle as a rookie, while 2022 5th round pick Tycen Anderson didn’t play a snap as a rookie and would also likely struggle if he ended up as the starter. Daxton Hill has the talent to be a solid starter immediately, but that’s not a guarantee and the Bengals figure to have a liability at the other safety spot. 

At cornerback, the Bengals lost Eli Apple, who played 908 snaps a year ago, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss because Apple struggled with a 50.9 grade last season and the Bengals have 2022 2nd round pick Cam Taylor-Britt and 2nd round rookie DJ Turner as potential replacement options who could both easily prove to be upgrades. Taylor-Britt did have just a 56.1 PFF grade on 590 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily be better than that in year two and both he and the rookie DJ Turner have the upside to be above average starters long-term.

The Bengals should also get a healthier season out of Chidobe Awuzie, who is their top cornerback when healthy, but was limited to 471 snaps in 8 games last season by a torn ACL that ended his season. Injuries have been a consistent problem for him, as he’s missed 27 games in 6 seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round by the Cowboys in 2017, but he’s also shown flashes of high level play, exceeding 70 on PFF three times in his career, including a career best 83.3 on 777 snaps as recently as 2021, when he was PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall. Awuzie did fall to 69.9 in 2022 even before the injury and that injury now complicates his long-term projection, so he’s not necessarily reliable as a top level cornerback, but he has the upside to be a top level cornerback again if everything goes right, still only in his age 28 season.

Slot specialist Mike Hilton also remains and, also in his prime in his age 29 season, he should continue being an above average slot option, as he has been throughout his career, surpassing 67 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, surpassing 70 on PFF three times, while averaging 635 snaps per season. The former 2017 undrafted free agent is only 5-9 184 and, as a result, is only a slot specialist, but he’s arguably the best pure slot cornerback in the game and should continue playing at the same level in 2023. Safety is now a position of concern for the Bengals, after it was a weakness a year ago, but they could easily get better cornerback play, with Awuzie returning from injury and a pair of young cornerbacks with the potential to be an upgrade as a replacement for former starter Eli Apple, so this isn’t a bad secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season, finishing 5th in regular season DVOA and coming close to a second straight playoff appearance. Going into 2023, this again looks like one of the best teams in the league, without drastic changes from a year ago. They play in by far the toughest of the two conferences in the AFC, which limits their chances of going on a run, but they have as good of a shot as anyone else to make it out of the conference, in which case they would almost definitely be the Super Bowl favorite over any NFC team. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC North

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

The Eagles finished the 2020 season with a 4-11-1 record and, with a payroll that made them the 3rd highest paid team in the league in terms of average annual salary, the Eagles looked like they had a long rebuild in front of them. Instead, they have rebuilt this team on the fly, making it back to the post-season the very next season in 2021 and then taking another step forward all the way to a Super Bowl appearance and a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last season, after a 14-3 regular season in which they secured the NFC’s #1 seed.

How the Eagles have been able to do this is complex, but, understandably, it starts at the quarterback position. Carson Wentz had a disappointing 2020 season, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while getting benched for raw rookie Jalen Hurts late in the season, but the Eagles were still able to trade him for a package that included a first round pick, with the Indianapolis Colts still bullish on the former MVP candidate’s upside and bounce back potential. 

The Eagles then chose not to use the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a replacement quarterback like Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead giving the reins to Hurts, even though he struggled in limited action as a passer in his rookie season, completing just 52.0% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, and then using the 6th overall pick to trade down, accumulating another first round pick the following year, and then selecting talented wide receiver Devonta Smith with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Between the first round pick from the Wentz trade, the extra first rounder they got from moving down from the 6th pick in 2021, and their own first round pick, the Eagles entered the 2022 NFL Draft with a trio of first rounders, one of which they traded for another talented wide AJ Brown, another they traded in a package that got them another first round pick in 2023, and a third they used themselves to select promising defensive player Jordan Davis. In 2023, again armed with multiple first round picks as a result of their trade down the following year, the Eagles then selected another pair of promising defensive prospects, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, useful additions for a defense that had a lot of free agents this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to keep all of them. 

Of course, none of this would have led to a Super Bowl appearance if the Eagles didn’t end up being right about Jalen Hurts, who has improved remarkably as a passer since struggling as a rookie, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2021 and then 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 2022, while continuing to be a threat on the ground, accumulating a 5.17 YPC average and 26 touchdowns on 367 career carries. His dual threat ability has led to him receiving overall grades of 80.8 and 85.9 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons. With Hurts still only going into his age 25 season, the sky’s the limit in terms of his upside and, at the very least, he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Unfortunately, it will become tougher for the Eagles to continue surrounding Hurts with talent in the future, with Hurts getting a big raise on a 5-year, 255 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, making him the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Hurts obviously played at a high level in his own right last season, but a big part of why this team got to where they got to last season was that they also had one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback. 

Injuries are more of a concern for Hurts than most quarterbacks, just because mobile quarterbacks take more hits and, as a result, have more opportunities to get hurt. Hurts might also not age as well as most quarterbacks as athleticism tends to decline quicker than anything, but the Eagles won’t have to worry about that for a long-time and, even as much as he runs, he’s definitely not a guarantee to get hurt every season. The Eagles do seem to want to be prepared for that though, spending above average on a backup quarterback to get Marcus Mariota and his 74 career starts on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. 

Mariota hasn’t been great as a starter in his career, with a 89.3 QB rating, but he’s one of the best backups in the league and would give the Eagles at least a capable quarterback for a stretch if Hurts got hurt. Mariota also has somewhat of a similar skill set to Hurts, with the ability to take off and run as well as pass, averaging 5.77 YPC with 17 touchdowns on 349 career carries, though Hurts obviously is by far the more explosive and more talented player, in both aspects of the game. With Hurts being one of the best starters in the league and Mariota being one of the best backups, it’s hard to find problems with this quarterback room, even if the Eagles are paying a lot for it.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receivers Devonta Smith and AJ Brown have been acquired using two of the several recent first round picks the Eagles have had and they are a big part of why this team has been able to rebuild in a hurry, becoming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league immediately in their first season together in 2023. Both players exceeded 1,100 yards receiving, one of two wide receiver duos in the league to do so (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle), and they were even more impressive than that seems, as the Eagles had the 10th fewest pass attempts in the league and Brown and Smith finished 3rd and 18th in the league among wide receivers respectively with 2.59 and 1.98 yards per route run respectively, while receiving overall grades of 88.0 and 81.0 respectively from PFF. 

For Brown, it was nothing new as he has been very efficient in similar run heavy offenses for his entire career, since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and a 73/1184/9 slash line per 17 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to 2022, with PFF grades of 84.0, 90.1, and 84.4 respectively. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Brown in 2023 and for years to come. Smith, meanwhile, had a 64/916/5 slash line and 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward statistically in year two in 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further in year three in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best #2 wide receivers in the league and Brown and Smith should remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Despite this offense being run heavy and Brown and Smith dominating targets, there was still enough leftover in this passing game for tight end Dallas Goedert to record a 55/702/3 slash line with a 1.82 yards per route run average, even though he missed five games with injury. That was nothing new for Goedert, who also had a 56/830/4 slash line on 76 targets in 15 games in 2021, in his first season in the league as an every down starter, and he impressed as a part-time player early in his career, averaging 1.59 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2018, while exceeding 70 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Goedert should continue playing at a similar level and could have his most productive year yet if he can avoid suffering a significant injury like he did last year.

With Brown, Smith, and Goedert all in the same receiving corps on a team that likes to run the ball a lot anyway, there isn’t much need for many other pass catchers, but the Eagles don’t have bad depth at wide receiver. Quez Watkins was their #3 receiver last season and, while he only had a 33/354/1 slash line and 0.80 yards per route run, that was in large part because he only had 51 targets and he had a 43/647/1 slash line and 1.51 yards per route run in a bigger role in 2021, when he received 62 targets. The 2020 6th round pick is an underwhelming option, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver, the Eagles won’t need much out of him, and the Eagles added competition for him, free agent acquisition Olamide Zaccheaus, who could prove to be an upgrade.

Zaccheaus went undrafted in 2019, but he has a decent 1.40 yards per route run average in his four seasons in the league. He’s never gotten a ton of playing time, but he did see a career high 61 targets and a career high 737 snaps last season, which he took for a 40/533/3 slash line and 1.47 yards per route run. He would probably have a smaller role with the Eagles, even if he does win the #3 receiver job, but he’s a decent 3rd option to have at the wide receiver position. The Eagles would obviously miss Devonta Smith or AJ Brown significantly if either missed time with injury, but Watkins and Zaccheaus wouldn’t be bad replacement options if they had to play a larger role in the absence of an injured wide receiver.

At tight end, Jack Stoll remains as the #2 tight end. He averaged just 0.57 yards per route run and had just a 11/123/0 slash line on 14 targets last season, but he played 572 snaps total and was decent as a blocker, which is what they primarily need him to do. Undrafted in 2021, Stoll had a similar season as a rookie, on 331 snaps. The Eagles also have veteran Dan Arnold, who can’t block, but who has a 1.63 yards per route run average for his career as a part-time tight end, and they have 2022 6th round pick Grant Calcaterra, who was decent on 227 snaps as a rookie and could have earned a larger role in year two as a rookie. There won’t be a lot of targets to go around for backup tight ends unless Goedert gets hurt, but they don’t have bad tight end depth either. This is a dominant receiving corps, led by arguably the best top trio of pass catchers in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Eagles didn’t utilize their running backs in the passing game much last season, as passing down back Kenneth Gainwell only had 29 targets, which he took for a 23/169/0 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run, while lead back Miles Sanders only took 26 targets for a 20/78/0 slash line and 0.29 yards per route run. However, that could be changing this season. Sanders is gone and, while one of his replacements Rashaad Penny likely won’t be much use in the passing game (0.67 yards per route run), the Eagles also added D’Andre Swift from the Lions, who has a career 1.53 yards per route run, and Gainwell still remains as well. All three of those backs could end up having roles on this offense.

Penny figures to be the primary early down back, as long as he’s healthy, but that has not consistently been the case throughout his first five seasons in the league. The 2018 1st round pick has a very impressive 5.69 YPC average for his career, but he’s never exceeded 119 carries in a season, while missing 40 games total in five years in the league. He was a worthwhile flier for the Eagles on a 1-year deal worth just 1.35 million and, if he can stay healthy, he has a lot of upside as an early down back, still only in his age 27 season, but I wouldn’t count on him lasting the whole season.

Swift has early down potential as well, in addition to being a talented pass catcher, averaging 4.62 YPC in three seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020, but injuries have also been a concern for him, as he’s missed at least three games in each of his three seasons in the league. He’s also a nice addition to this backfield and figures to be useful for the Eagles as long as he stays on the field, but he’s also a strong candidate to miss more time with injury and the Lions probably won’t want to give him too many carries, in order to preserve him for passing downs.

Kenneth Gainwell is probably third on this depth chart now, but he could still find himself with a role, given how injury prone Penny and Swift are. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gainwell was better as a pass catcher as a rookie, with a 33/253/1 slash line on 50 targets and a 1.39 yards per route run average, and he has a 4.39 YPC average on 121 carries in two seasons in the league as well, so he’s not a bad 3rd option, though he’s obviously a projection to a larger role as a ball carrier. 

The Eagles also still have veteran Boston Scott, who has a 4.29 YPC average on 282 carries and a career 1.11 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2018. Depending on injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could also find himself with somewhat of a role at some point this season. The Eagles don’t have a true top back in this backfield, but there is a lot of upside, especially if Penny and/or Swift can stay healthier than they’ve been in the past.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One area where the Eagles are unlikely to be quite as good in 2023 as they were a year ago is on the offensive line (1st in team pass blocking grade on PFF, 5th in team run blocking grade on PFF) and there are several reasons for that. For one, they were among the healthiest offensive lines in the league a year ago, with their expected starting five offensive linemen combining to miss just three starts, and they are unlikely to be that lucky again. The Eagles also won’t be as deep on the offensive line this season, losing starting right guard Isaac Seumalo, who was PFF’s 7th ranked guard with a 75.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, as well as Andre Dillard, who only played 37 snaps as a reserve last season, but could have replaced Seumalo if he had been kept. 

Instead, the Eagles will likely replace Seumalo with 2022 2nd round pick Cam Jurgens, who is primarily a center, but who will also likely be their best option at right guard this season, despite only playing 35 snaps as a rookie. The Eagles also used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on the versatile Anthony Steen, who could also push to start at right guard, even as a rookie, and they still have useful reserve Jack Driscoll, who has been solid while making 16 starts as a spot starter over the past three seasons (1 at left tackle, 10 at right tackle, and 5 at right guard) since going in the 4th round in 2020. However, the Eagles depth is not what it’s been upfront in recent years.

Making matters worse, the Eagles have a pair of key offensive linemen who are now well over 30 and, as a result, could decline in 2023, with center Jason Kelce going into his age 36 season and right tackle Lane Johnson going into his age 33 season. Kelce could very well be entering the final season of his career in 2023, with Cam Jurgens originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for him, but Kelce still finished with a 88.3 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2022, his 9th season over 70 and his 6th season over 80 in the past 10 seasons, so, even if he does decline this season, he still has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter. However, any noticeable decline from him would have a negative effect on the rest of this offensive line, considering how much they have depended on him for years.

Johnson isn’t quite as old as Kelce and has also had a very impressive career, with 10 seasons over 70 and 6th seasons over 80 on PFF in 10 seasons in the league, but he too could decline noticeably this season and, even if he remains an above average starter, that noticeable decline would also have a negative impact on this offensive line as a whole. Johnson has also had consistent durability issues throughout his career, missing time in each of the past seven seasons, with 31 games total missed over that stretch, including two starts last season, two of the three starts that Eagles starting offensive linemen missed in 2022. He figures to miss at least some time with injury again at some point this season.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are both relatively young and in their prime. Left tackle Jordan Mailata went undrafted in 2018 and had actually never played American football before the Eagles gave him a chance, but that chance proved to be worth it, as Mailata became a starter in his third season in the league in 2020 and has made 40 starts in three seasons since, while receiving grades of 70.3, 87.4, and 76.5 respectively from PFF. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue at least being an above average left tackle for years to come, and his upside is among the best in the NFL. 

Dickerson, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has received identical 67.3 grades from PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, doing so on 13 starts as a rookie and then 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dickerson took a step forward and had the best year yet of his career in 2023. This is still a strong offensive line, but between off-season losses, the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries this year, and the fact that a couple of their best offensive linemen are well over 30 and could decline, I wouldn’t expect this group to be quite as good as a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles had a lot of free agents on defense this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to retain them all. In fact, of the nine Eagles defenders who played at least 700 snaps in 2022, seven of them hit free agency this off-season, with five of them going elsewhere this off-season. The Eagles didn’t do a bad job of replacing all that lost talent though and, even if regress significantly on defense this season, they are coming off of a year in which they ranked 6th in DVOA, so they have a lot of room to regress and still be an above average unit.

At the interior defender position, both starters Fletcher Cox (712 snaps) and Javon Hargrave (711 snaps) were free agents this off-season. Cox was retained this off-season on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but Hargrave signed with the 49ers, after posting a 78.2 PFF grade last season, while Cox is going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst year (56.4 PFF grade), so it’s not a surprise that the Eagles used one of their first round picks on an interior defender for the second straight year, taking Jalen Carter 9th overall, after taking Jordan Davis 13th overall in last year’s draft. 

Davis flashed a lot of potential on 225 rookie year snaps in 13 games (71.4 PFF grade) and figures to have a much bigger role in year two, while Carter is talented enough to make an immediate impact and has the upside to develop into one of the better interior defenders in the league long-term, as does Davis. They will both play significant roles this season, alongside Cox, who is clearly on the decline, going from 6 straight seasons of PFF grades over 80 from 2014-2019, to a 74.1 PFF grade in 2020, a 66.7 PFF grade in 2021, and his career worst year in 2022, especially struggling against the run. He’ll likely play a smaller snap count after exceeding 700 snaps played in 9 of the past 10 seasons and he could benefit from that, but he’s clearly not the player he used to be and could continue struggling.

The Eagles also have 2021 3rd round pick Milton Williams, who struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade on 456 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in year two, receiving a 72.6 PFF grade on 396 snaps. It’s possible Williams stays inconsistent and regresses in year three, but he also could continue playing well in what should be a bigger role, with Cox on the decline and the younger players taking over most of the snap load at this position. There’s plenty of upside here, but a lot of downside as well, if the young players prove they are not ready for bigger snap counts.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Eagles also used a first round pick in this year’s draft on an edge defender, taking Nolan Smith 30th overall, not because the Eagles lost any key players at the edge defender position, but because long-time edge defender Brandon Graham, who still played 474 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 35 season and could be nearing the end. Graham still excelled last season though, with a 89.8 PFF grade, his 9th season over 80 in the past 11 seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 5 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate that exceeds even his impressive career 14.7% pressure rate.  

Graham’s performance was especially impressive because, in addition to his age, he was also coming off of a 2021 season in which he missed all but 50 snaps due to a torn achilles. His 2022 snap count was his lowest in a healthy season since 2012 and it could be even lower this season with Smith being added, but the former 2010 first round pick could continue playing at a high level as a rotational player, even if he declines a little and isn’t quite as good as a year ago. 

Graham could also drop off significantly, but the Eagles are pretty well prepared for that with Smith being added to a group that already has Josh Sweat (587 snaps) and Haason Reddick (816 snaps), who received PFF grades of 86.6 and 81.1 respectively last season, while recording 16 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate and 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate respectively. For Reddick, it was more of the same as his previous two seasons, dating back to the 2017 first round pick’s breakout 2020 campaign, in which he had 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate, followed by 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 2021. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

For Sweat, on the other hand, it was a career best year for him, especially as a pass rusher, but he had previously had PFF grades of 70.2 and 76.1 on snap counts of 422 and 654 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, so his strong season didn’t come totally out of nowhere. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect the 2018 4th round pick to continue being at least an above average edge defender, with the upside to continue playing at the high level he played at last season. 

The Eagles also still have Derek Barnett, another former first round pick (2017) who has played significant snap counts in the past, averaging 649 snaps per season from 2019-2021, and who is still only in his age 27 season, but he has mostly been a middling player, with PFF grades in the 50s and 60s throughout his career, he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2022 season after 12 snaps, and he is mostly still on the roster because his contract makes it hard to move on. He figures to be buried on the depth chart in what figures to be a loaded edge defender group again, with first round pick Nolan Smith added to a group with a top trio that totaled 38 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2022.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The linebacker position is the position where the Eagles lost the most this off-season. Kyzir White and TJ Edwards were both every down players who played 843 snaps and 1,040 snaps respectively and both played well, especially Edwards, who ranked 2nd among off ball linebackers with a 84.8 PFF grade, while White ranked above average at 65.0. Both are no longer with the team and their likely replacements will almost definitely be significant downgrades, with 2022 3rd round pick Nakobe Dean expected to take over a starting role, despite playing just 38 snaps as a rookie, and free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow being a mediocre option, who has finished below average on PFF in four of five healthy seasons in the league, on an average of 701 snaps per season. 

The Eagles don’t have much in the way of other options though, nor do they have adequate depth. Shaun Bradley was just a 6th round pick in 2020 and has played just 134 defensive snaps thus far in his career. Davion Taylor went in the 3rd round that year, but struggled mightily on 283 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league, before spending his entire third season in the league on the practice squad, not playing a single defensive snap. The Eagles’ linebacking corps figures to be a liability this year, a year after they were a strength.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles also lost both of their starting safeties from last season, but that’s not as big of a deal because Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson finished with middling grades of 56.3 and 63.9 respectively on PFF. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his league leading six interceptions, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and missed a lot of tackles, so he won’t be missed as much as his interception total would suggest. To replace Epps and Gardner-Johnson, the Eagles signed ex-Steeler Terrell Edmunds and used a 3rd round pick on Illinois’ Sydney Brown, who figures to compete with their top reserves from a year ago, Reed Blankenship and Marcus Epps, for the other starting job opposite Edmunds.

Edmunds was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2018 and he has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has mostly been a middling starter, finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, while also never exceeding 70.9 in a season. Edmunds should continue being at least a decent starter in 2023, so he shouldn’t be a downgrade from either of the Eagles’ starting safeties last season, and he has the potential to be better than both were a year ago.

At the other safety spot, meanwhile, Blankenship has shown the most potential of the bunch thus far, posting a 75.8 grade on 292 snaps last season, but that’s a really small sample size for a 2022 undrafted free agent, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role. Wallace, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2020, but has finished with grades in the 50s on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 185 snaps played per season, while the rookie Brown could easily struggle if forced into a significant rookie year role. One of the Eagles’ safety spots could be a liability, but that wouldn’t be a big difference from a year ago.

At cornerback, the Eagles kept all of their key players from a year ago, even though their top two cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay both could have left the team this off-season, with the former being re-signed as a free agent on a 3-year, 38 million dollar deal and the latter nearly being a cap casualty at a 17.5 million dollar scheduled salary, before agreeing to a long-term 3-year, 42 million dollar extension to lower his cap hit. Bradberry and Slay posted grades of 74.1 and 73.1 respectively on PFF, but they are going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, so there’s some potential for decline.

For Bradberry, it was also only the 2nd season in seven seasons in the league in which he has surpassed 70 on PFF. He’s started 108 of 109 games played in those seven seasons, while exceeding 60 on PFF every year, but he hasn’t consistently shown a higher level of play. Between that and his age, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2023, though he should remain at least a capable starter, barring an unexpected massive decline. Slay, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in 7 of the past 9 seasons, with 3 seasons over 80, including most recently a 2021 season in which he had a 81.3 grade, but he is a couple years older than Bradberry, so the potential for an aged related decline is more likely. Either way, it seems unlikely that both players will be as good as they were a year ago again in 2023, but they should still be a solid starting duo.

The Eagles also still have Avonte Maddox, who missed 8 games with injury and was limited to only 457 snaps as the #3 cornerback, but who posted an impressive 71.3 PFF grade. The 2018 4th round pick was inconsistent early in his career, but that was in part because he kept moving back and forth from slot cornerback to safety and, over the past two seasons as purely a slot cornerback, he has exceeded 70 on PFF in back-to-back seasons, doing so on 729 snaps in 2021. Only in his age 27 season, he should be able to have a similar season in 2023, assuming he can stay healthy this time around.

In Maddox’s absence, Josiah Scott struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade on 390 snaps, but the Eagles did fortify their depth this off-season by signing former Cleveland Browns cornerback Greedy Williams. Williams’ 1-year, 1.35 million dollar deal is only a flier, but it could be a good one, as the 2019 2nd round pick has shown flashes, but has missed 27 games with injury in four seasons in the league and, as a result, has failed to develop, finishing above 60 on PFF just once. 

In the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, Williams was limited to just 105 snaps as a reserve and that’s what he figures to be in Philadelphia, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped potential if he can finally stay healthy. This secondary might not be quite as good as a year ago with Slay and Bradbury aging, but this should still remain a solid unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

There are reasons to expect the Eagles not to be as good as a year ago, as they lost significant talent on defense and are unlikely to have the same unlikely luck as they had on offense a year ago, when they had the 4th fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury. However, they were 14-1 last season before Jalen Hurts got injured, so, even if they regress, they are regressing from a very high point, and their conference competition has gotten even weaker this off-season, so the Eagles should have a pretty easy path to another high win total and multiple playoff wins. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

In 2022, the Cowboys were a good team, but not a great team, finishing the regular season 6th in DVOA, making the post-season as a wild card at 12-5, and ultimately falling short in a divisional round loss to the 49ers. It was a similar season for the Cowboys, who have won double digit games and have made the post-season in five of the past nine seasons, but none of those appearances have led to deep playoff runs, with two ending with first round losses and three ending with second round losses. 

That’s actually a long-term trend for the Cowboys, dating back to their last NFC Championship appearance in 1995, a period of time in which they have qualified for the post-season 12 times in 27 seasons, but have gone just 5-12 in the post-season and have failed to win multiple games in the same post-season appearance. The Cowboys didn’t have a ton of room for flexibility this off-season and they’re an above average team, even if they haven’t been true contenders, so they decided to basically run it back for the second straight season, with minimal changes, beyond a few key changes that I’ll get into later.

Much like this team has been good, but not great in recent years, the same can be said of quarterback Dak Prescott. Since becoming the starter as a 4th round rookie in 2016, Prescott has started 97 games, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.60 YPA, 166 touchdowns, and 65 interceptions, good for a 97.8 QB rating, while finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons, including four seasons over 80.

He’s certainly not a bad quarterback, but the problem is that he is the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary on a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal and the history of paying non-elite quarterbacks top quarterback money is not promising. Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 29 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win it all with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap.

Prescott is going into his age 30 season in 2023 and I would expect more of the same. Injuries are becoming a bit of a concern for him, as he’s missed time in each of the past three seasons, 17 games total, after not missing any in his first four seasons in the league. Fortunately, the Cowboys have a decent backup Cooper Rush, who has a career 84.9 QB rating, including a 80.0 QB rating in 5 starts last season in Prescott’s absence last season, after Prescott suffered an injury in week one. 

The Cowboys went 4-1 in Rush’s starts, but that had more to do with their defense, as they were a much more efficient offense with Prescott in the lineup, despite the win/loss records. Rush is not a bad backup, but the Cowboys will obviously be hoping that Prescott can stay healthy all year this time around. This is a solid quarterback room, but Prescott might not be quite good enough for this team to be serious contenders at the highest level with him making the salary he currently makes.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on offense this off-season was wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who they are paying 12 million to come over from the Texans for a pair of late round draft picks. Cooks is going into his age 30 season and coming off of a 57/699/3 slash line, a down year for a receiver who has topped 1000 yards six times in nine seasons in the league, but Cooks’ low production last season was in part due to poor quarterback play with the Texans and also in part due to missing four games, as his 1.64 yards per route run average actually wasn’t far behind his career average of 1.81, despite the situation under center in Houston. 

Cooks isn’t totally over the hill and it’s entirely possible he bounces back statistically in 2023, if he stays healthier, in a much better offense. Even if he doesn’t bounce back to his prime form, Cooks should still be an asset for a team that lacked a consistent #2 wide receiver last year, behind #1 wide receiver Ceedee Lamb. Lamb finished last season with a 107/1359/9 slash line and a 2.38 yards per route run average, but their next best wide receiver was Noah Brown, who had just a 43/555/3 slash line and a 1.23 yards per route run average. 

For Lamb, last season was the best of his career, with a 86.3 PFF grade that ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 overall pick has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 74/935/5 slash line, 1.81 yards per route run average, and a 71.3 PFF grade as a rookie to a 79/1102/6 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run average, and a 84.6 PFF grade in his second season in 2021, to last year’s career best year, when he finished 6th in the league in receiving yards. Still only in his age 24 season, Lamb should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come in 2023 and beyond.

The Cowboys should also get more out of Michael Gallup (737 snaps), who struggled mightily in his first season back from a torn ACL in 2022, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run with a 39/424/4 slash line, but who has had much better years in the past and, only in his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential, another year removed from the injury. Prior to last season, Gallup had averaged a 1.63 yards per route run and an average slash line of 70/1044/6 per 17 games in the previous three seasons combined, with his 2021 season ending after 9 games due to injury. Durability remains a concern for him and he may never go all the way back to his peak form, but he has a good amount of bounce back potential and should be useful for the Cowboys in 3-wide receiver sets with Lamb and Cooks.


With Noah Brown (823 snaps) gone, the Cowboys top reserve this season is likely to be 2022 3rd round pick Jalen Tolbert, although that’s mostly by default, with the rest of the position group consisting of recent late round picks and undrafted free agents, none of whom have surpassed more than a few catches in their career. Tolbert came into the league with a lot of potential, as evidenced by his draft status, and he still does have upside, but he also showed very little as a rookie, playing just 89 snaps, despite the Cowboys’ need for playmakers at the position, and averaging just 0.30 yards per route run. The Cowboys won’t need him much in 2023 unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but that’s obviously a possibility and Tolbert could easily end up struggling if forced into a significant role as an injury replacement.

The Cowboys should have a talented top wide receiver trio this season, but they did lose tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency this off-season. Schultz actually finished second on this team with a 57/577/5 slash line on 89 targets, while averaging a 1.38 yards per route run average, giving the Cowboys a reliable tight end target to help make up for their lack of wide receiver depth. Schultz wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran tight end this off-season, so the Cowboys are likely to have less focus on the tight end position this season, in favor of giving more targets to their talented wide receiver trio.

Jake Ferguson, a 2022 4th round pick who played 420 snaps and averaged 1.66 yards per route run as the #2 tight end as a rookie, is in line to start as Schultz’s replacement, and the Cowboys also added another young tight end, Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker, in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and he figures to also have at least somewhat of a role at the tight end position. Schoonmaker is raw though, while Ferguson is a projection to a larger role. The top-3 targets in this passing game are likely to be the wide receivers, given that they have a talented top trio at that position, but their young tight ends do also have some upside, in a receiving corps that seems strong overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

At running back, the big change is the Cowboys releasing long-time feature back Ezekiel Elliott, a move the Cowboys are hoping will be addition by subtraction, with promising young Tony Pollard poised to take over the feature back role, after being by far the more efficient back over Elliott in a limited role in recent years. In his career, the 2019 4th round pick Pollard has averaged 5.13 yards per carry on 510 carries in 4 seasons in the league, with 1.45 yards per route run as a pass catcher, and back-to-back seasons over 85 overall on PFF, while Elliott had averaged just 4.01 yards per carry on 712 carries and 0.69 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined, while not exceeding even 75 overall on PFF since 2019.

Pollard ran in more favorable situations and didn’t have as much usage, maxing out at 232 touches in a season, but he has exceeded Elliott in carry success rate over the past two seasons as well (55% vs. 53% in 2021, 50% vs. 49% in 2022), so he’s been the more efficient back any way you look at it and he could easily break out as one of the best feature backs in the league with Elliott out of his way. That’s not a guarantee, especially with Pollard coming off of a broken leg that he suffered in the post-season last year, but even if he wasn’t coming off the injury, he would still be a projection to a larger role, and I wouldn’t expect him to be as efficient in a bigger role even in a best case scenario, but he doesn’t have to be quite as efficient to be one of the more productive running backs in the league in a bigger workload. 

The Cowboys are betting on Pollard breaking out in his new expanded role, using much of the 13.1 million they saved from releasing Elliott to keep Pollard on the 10.091 million dollar franchise tag, a number he should exceed annually on a long-term deal if he can show himself to be healthy and capable of being a featured back in this offense in 2023. Releasing Elliott at that huge number was a no brainer and keeping Pollard, who will almost definitely be an upgrade, at a fraction of that cost makes sense as well.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ depth behind Pollard is a concern without Elliott, especially concerning since Pollard is coming off of an injury and is still a projection to his new larger role. The Cowboys finished last season 6th in the league with 531 carries as a team and if they want to come close to that number in 2023, they will need another running back to prove capable of handling a somewhat significant role. Malik Davis is currently penciled in as the #2 running back and the 2022 undrafted free agent flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in a very limited role, with 2.10 yards per route run and 4.24 yards per carry, but he’s still very inexperienced and an underwhelming option as the primary backup. 

The Cowboys probably want to avoid overloading Pollard, so whoever his backup is will probably see at least somewhat significant action, probably in both running and passing situations, and that very well could be Davis, who flashed potential in both aspects of the game in very limited rookie year action. The Cowboys also used a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn and seem like a strong candidate to add veteran depth before the start of the season. Any veteran they add would be more of a threat to the young backup running backs than it would be to Pollard’s expected feature back role though, as Pollard looks like the clear lead back, which elevates an otherwise underwhelming position group.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The only big change on the offensive line is that they lost left guard Connor McGovern in free agency, but will probably get a healthier year out of left tackle Tyron Smith, who was limited to 271 snaps in 4 games last season. Smith’s return will push his injury replacement Tyler Smith to left guard where he’ll be a replacement for McGovern. The Cowboys are left without much depth and would be in trouble if any of their starters missed significant time with injury, but they could have a solid starting five again.

Tyler Smith played pretty well, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on the season, making all but one start at left tackle as a rookie last season, with the other coming at left guard, now his new starting position. It’s possible Smith won’t be as good at a new position, but guard also could be an easier position for him to play and it would be a surprise at all if he took a step forward in year two and became one of the better guards in the league. He was originally drafted to be the long-term replacement for Tyron Smith, who is now going into his age 33 season, but, for now, guard is where Tyler Smith will play.

Tyron Smith’s age is a concern, especially when you consider his injury history, missing at least 3 games in each of the past 7 seasons, with a total of 45 games missed over that stretch and 33 games missed over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s surpassed 75 on PFF in 8 of the past 10 seasons, including a 91.4 grade as recently as 2021 (11 starts), so, if he can stay healthy, even if he declines from his prime form, he should remain at least an above average starter, but that dominant 2021 campaign was surrounded by seasons in which he’s been limited to 2 starts and 4 starts respectively, and it’s entirely possible he misses another significant chunk of time with injury in 2023.

If Tyron Smith does miss more time, the Cowboys replacement options wouldn’t be great. Matt Waletzko, a 2022 5th round pick, only played one snap as a rookie, while 2021 4th round pick Josh Ball has played just 42 career snaps, and those are the only reserve offensive tackles on the roster aside from recent undrafted free agents with no experience. The Cowboys could move Tyler Smith back to tackle if Tyron Smith misses time, but their replacement options at guard only include Chuma Edoga, a 2019 3rd round pick who has been mediocre in 13 career starts, 2021 7th round pick Matt Farinok, who has struggled mightily in 214 career snaps, and 5th round rookie Asim Richards, who would likely be overmatched in a starting role in year one.

The Cowboys’ depth problems are even more concerning when you consider that right tackle Terence Steele tore his ACL in week 14 last season and might not be ready for the start of this season. Even if he is, he could easily not be 100% to start the season. Steele had a 73.9 PFF grade in 13 starts in last season, but he would have been a candidate to regress even before the injury, as Steele is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had formerly received grades of 50.3 and 64.5 respectively from PFF in the first two seasons of his career (27 starts), before his career best year in 2022. With an ACL tear in the mix now, Steele seems likely to have a hard time repeating his career best year again in 2023.

The Cowboys also have an aging star player at right guard, as Zach Martin is also going into his age 33 season. Martin has been one of the best guards in the league for years, exceeding 80 on PFF in 8 straight seasons to begin his career from 2014-2021, but he dropped off to 73.3 in 2022 and he could very well be on the permanent decline. He could remain an above average starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined further and it seems unlikely he’ll bounce back to his peak form.

The Cowboys also don’t have much depth at center, with no experienced players behind starter Tyler Biadasz, who is going into his 3rd season in that role, posting decent 64.8 and 61.7 grades on PFF and making 33 out of 34 possible starts. The 2020 4th round pick is still only in his 4th season in the league, so he could have a little untapped potential, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. There is potential for this to be a solid offensive line, but the Cowboys have two starters in their age 33 season and a right tackle coming off of a significant injury, with minimal depth across the board, so there is potential for a lot of downside here too.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 2nd in defensive DVOA, and their edge defender group was probably the strength of their defense. That should remain the case in 2023, with this group not changing in any meaningful ways this off-season, aside from adding San Jose State’s Viliami Fehoko in the 4th round of the draft to give themselves even more depth. This position was led last season by Micah Parsons, who is one of the top defensive players in the league, and that should remain the case this season. 

The 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Parsons burst onto the season with a 89.8 PFF grade as a rookie, struggling against the run, but totaling 13 sacks, 15 hits, and a 21.8% pressure rate, and then he followed that up with a 91.6 PFF grade in his second season in the league, 2nd among edge defenders on PFF, taking a big step forward against the run and continuing to be a highly effective pass rusher, with 13.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 18.4% pressure rate. Still only in his age 24 season, Parsons should remain one of the top edge defenders in the league for years to come and he should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

The Cowboys also have DeMarcus Lawrence, who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league for years, with 45.5 sacks, 56 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 88 games over the past 6 seasons combined, but he is going into his age 31 season now and, though he still had a 78.1 PFF grade last season, that was his first season below 80 since 2016, so he seems to be declining a little bit and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining further in 2023. He should remain an above average edge defender, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

Reserves Sam Williams (274 snaps), Dorance Armstrong (542 snaps), Dante Fowler (343 snaps) all played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 70.9, 61.8, and 63.2 respectively, especially performing well as pass rushers, with pressure rates of 13.3%, 12.3%, and 15.9% respectively and a combined 18.5 sacks and 19 hits across the three of them. Williams was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2023, possibly in an extended role, which could come at the expense of the aging DeMarcus Lawrence. 

Dorance Armstrong was a 4th round pick in 2018 and struggled as a reserve in his first three seasons in the league, but he played 507 snaps in 2021 and also had a decent 65.7 grade, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate, so he should be able to continue being a capable rotational player for the third straight season in 2023. Fowler is coming off a career best year as a pass rusher, though he has exceeded 60 as a pass rusher on PFF in six straight seasons, with 37 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate in 92 games over that stretch. He has mostly struggled against the run in his career and he probably won’t be as good as a pass rusher again in 2023, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. This remains a very deep and talented position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a position of relative weakness on defense for the Cowboys last season, so it makes sense that they used their first round pick on Michigan’s Mazi Smith, who figures to have a significant role immediately in year one, likely as a starter. Smith figures to have some growing pains in year one, but has a good chance to be at least a solid starter. He’ll likely start next to Osa Odighizuwa, the biggest bright spot of this group a year ago, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 63.3 overall PFF grade on 616 snaps, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. 

Odighizuwa was also a solid pass rusher as a rookie in 2021 with 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in a similar role (614 snaps), but he struggled mightily against the run (37.6 PFF grade). He still wasn’t good as a run defender in year two (54.7 PFF grade), but he was noticeably better. His run defense will likely remain a weakness in his third season in the league, but he should continue being a good enough pass rusher to make up for it.

Another recent third round pick, Chauncey Golston, was the Cowboys’ only other edge defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, doing so on just 237 snaps, but he had a similar season on 414 snaps as a rookie in 2021, so he’s shown enough that he could earn an expanded role in 2023, even if he remains a reserve. His run defense has been underwhelming in his career, but he has an impressive 8.6% pressure rate in his limited action. Neville Gallimore was also a recent third round pick (2020), but he hasn’t been nearly as good of a selection, with grades of 52.1, 49.6, and 36.6 on snap counts of 416, 164, and 402 in his first three seasons in the league. He may have a little untapped upside, but that’s far from a guarantee and shouldn’t be guaranteed a rotational role or a roster spot at a position group that is deeper than it’s been in recent years.

The Cowboys also have veteran Johnathan Hankins and 2021 6th round pick Quinton Bohanna in the mix. Hankins was acquired in a trade with the Raiders mid-season last year, but he only played 115 snaps in 5 games and struggled mightily, before going down for the year with an injury. Hankins has had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons to begin his career from 2013-2020, with four seasons over 70, but he’s had the two worst seasons by far of his career in the past two seasons (46.9 and 46.0) and, now going into his age 31 season, is likely to continue struggling. Bohanna, meanwhile, has struggled on snap counts of 222 and 264 respectively in two seasons in the league and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it’s very possible he never gets any better. This is a young group with some upside and the addition of Mazi Smith definitely makes them better, but they still have some concerns.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Leighton Vander Esch remains the Cowboys’ top linebacker, coming off of a season in which he received a 70.8 PFF grade on 745 snaps. That was his best single season grade since his rookie season in 2018, when the 19th overall pick seemingly burst onto the scene with a 84.4 PFF grade on 785 snaps. However, injuries and inconsistent play led to him playing just 510 snaps, 460 snaps, and 661 snaps respectively over the next three seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 58.4, 50.6, and 63.5, before staying healthy and bouncing back somewhat to his rookie year form in 2022. Vander Esch is still only going into his age 26 season and could remain an above average every down linebacker, but there’s a good chance he regresses and/or misses time with injury, so I wouldn’t expect as much out of him as the Cowboys got a year ago.

Anthony Barr was the Cowboys’ other starting linebacker last season, receiving a 59.7 PFF grade on 608 snaps, but the Cowboys let the veteran leave this off-season, opting to replace him by promoting 2022 5th round pick Damone Clark, who flashed potential with a solid 65.5 grade on 398 snaps as a rookie. Clark is still a projection to a larger role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up as a liability in his first season as an every down player, but he also could take a step forward in his second season in the league and continue his solid play into a larger role.

If Clark struggles or can’t lock down the job, the Cowboys have third round rookie DeMarvion Overshown, who figures to be the third linebacker, playing sparingly as an early down run stuffer in base packages, but who also could play a larger role if needed, though he might struggle in that role. The Cowboys also still have 2021 4th round pick Jabril Cox, but he hasn’t shown much in the very few snaps (46) he has played in two seasons in the league and it’s unlikely they are suddenly planning on giving him a significant role in year three. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but there is a lot of youth and inexperience and their top player, Leighton Vander Esch, has a history of injury and inconsistency.

Grade: B

Secondary

The biggest addition the Cowboys made on defense this offense was trading for veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore only cost the Cowboys a fifth round pick in draft compensation because Gilmore is going into his age 33 season and is owed 10 million this season, but he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years and he hasn’t declined much yet, finishing last season with a 79.1 grade on PFF, his 7th season over 70 in the past 9 seasons. 

Gilmore is unlikely to ever return to his prime form, when he received PFF grades of 90.7 and 82.8 respectively in 2018 and 2019, and he might have trouble even being as good as he was last year again this year, given his age, but, barring an unexpectedly massive drop off, he should remain at least an above average starting cornerback, making him a welcome addition for a Cowboys team that needed help at the position, with Gilmore essentially replacing fellow veteran Anthony Brown, who had a 55.0 PFF grade on 728 snaps last season.

Trevon Diggs remains as another starter. He’s well known for the 17 interceptions he has in three seasons since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2020, which are tied for the most in the NFL over that span, but he has also allowed 2,361 receiving yards over that stretch, which is also most in the NFL over that stretch, and he’s consistently struggled against the run. His pass defense grades from PFF have still been decent, at 63.9, 66.7, and 66.1 respectively across the three seasons he’s been in the league, but those are not nearly as good as you’d expect just based on his interception totals. Diggs is still in his age 26 season and could continue getting better and he should benefit from having Gilmore opposite him, but I would expect for Gilmore to still be their best cornerback overall and for Diggs to continue being a boom or bust player.

The third cornerback role in this secondary is up for grabs. Veteran Jourdan Lewis has been a starter for the Cowboys for several years, starting 30 of 37 games played over the past three seasons, while playing 52.2 snaps per game, but he has been underwhelming with PFF grades of 48.1, 61.4, and 59.1 respectively. He was better in a more limited role earlier in his career and could benefit from going back to that role, but he could also remain a starter if no one else proves to be a better option.

DaRon Bland is probably their best alternative option, after flashing potential with a 71.9 PFF grade on 597 snaps last season as mostly an injury replacement from Lewis, playing well despite being just a 5th round rookie. Bland is a projection to a larger role and wasn’t a high draft pick, but he could easily end up developing into a solid starter long-term and could prove to be an upgrade over Lewis as soon as this season. The Cowboys also used 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft on cornerbacks Kelvin Joseph and Nashon Wright and they could be candidates for larger roles, but they have played just 332 snaps and 220 snaps respectively in their careers thus far and could easily remain buried on the depth chart.

At safety, the Cowboys have a trio of starting caliber players and they use them together frequently, to compensate for their questionable depth at linebacker and cornerback. Malik Hooker (860 snaps), Jayron Kearse (815 snaps), and Donovan Wilson (959 snaps) all finished with impressive grades of 73.9, 70.2, and 70.1 respectively in 2022 and all could continue playing at a similar level in 2023. 

Kearse didn’t become a starter until his 6th season in the league in 2021, but he also had an impressive PFF grade that season at 76.8, and he’s flashed potential as a reserve before, so he should remain a solid starting caliber player in 2023. Wilson had never played as many snaps as he did last season before, but he did receive grades of 72.0 and 62.5 respectively on PFF on snap counts of 673 and 338 respectively in two seasons of significant action prior to last season, so he has a good chance to remain a solid starting caliber player as well this season. 

Hooker, meanwhile, has been a starter since entering the league as a first round pick in 2017 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including two seasons over 70, but durability has always been an issue for him, costing him 47 games total in his career, with at least one game missed in every season in the league. He should continue playing at a pretty high level when healthy, but he’s a strong candidate to miss more time with injury. All three safeties have a good chance to remain solid starting caliber players, in a secondary that is well above average overall, especially with the addition of cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Cowboys are still probably behind the Eagles in the division, but they are one of the few teams in the NFC that was a contender a year ago that didn’t get worse from a year ago and, in fact, they are arguably better, due to the additions of veterans Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. It would be nice if they could win their division and secure homefield advantage, but the rest of the NFC is so weak that the Cowboys could make a run though the post-season even as a wild card and they are arguably the second best team in the NFC overall behind their division rivals. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC East

San Francisco 49ers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers had a strange year in 2022. It goes back to the 2021 NFL Draft, when they traded away the equivalent of three first round picks, in addition to other later picks, to acquire the 3rd overall pick and select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, who had a sky high upside, but had only made 17 starts at the collegiate level due to injury and COVID cancellations. The 49ers already had Jimmy Garroppolo, who had a lot of success, including a Super Bowl appearance during the 2019 season, but the 49ers felt that Garoppolo benefited significantly from his supporting cast and that Lance gave them a higher upside in the long-term, while providing them with a much needed upgrade at the backup quarterback spot in the short-term, given Garoppolo’s history of injury issues. 

The plan was to start Garoppolo in 2021, with Lance as the backup, and then move Garoppolo and his expensive salary the following off-season, allowing the cheaper and hopefully better Trey Lance to take over in 2022 and beyond. Lance was underwhelming with a 59.9 PFF grade in two rookie year starts as a spot starter in the absence of Garoppolo, who led this team to an NFC Championship appearance, but fell just short of a Super Bowl appearance in a game in which Garoppolo had a mediocre performance. 

The 49ers seemed sure to move on from Garoppolo last off-season following that loss, but couldn’t find a suitor for Garoppolo’s salary because of his off-season shoulder injury and, with neither side having a better option, Garoppolo surprisingly agreed to return to the 49ers for the 2022 season on a reduced deal as Trey Lance’s backup. That proved to be a smart move for both sides, as Trey Lance unfortunately suffered a season ending injury after just 31 pass attempts in two games (55.0 QB rating, 53.1 PFF grade), giving Garoppolo the chance to get his old job back.

The 49ers started the 2022 season 3-4, but they had a lot of injuries early in the year. As the season went on, they got healthier, while Garoppolo proved to be an upgrade over Lance under center, and, perhaps most importantly, they acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade from the Panthers in which the 49ers surrendered a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round pick, which proved to be well worth it. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all the credit, as his addition coincided closely with the insertion of Garoppolo into the starting lineup and the return of several other key players from injury, but the 49ers immediately won 4 in a row after McCaffrey became their featured back in week 8.

Those four wins took them to week 12, when it seemed like their season could have suddenly been over, with Garoppolo now suffering a season ending injury, leaving 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the 49ers starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 49ers still had one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position, but Purdy seemed likely to be overmatched in the first action of his career. 

Instead, Purdy continued the 49ers’ success, winning his first 8 games to extend the winning streak to 12 games in a row, all the way up to the NFC Championship, when disaster struck again, with Purdy going down with an elbow injury early in the game. Backup Josh Johnson played admirably for a mid-season signing and essentially a 4th string quarterback, but when he too suffered an injury in the NFC Championship, the 49ers were essentially left without a passing attack, without a 3rd active quarterback, as one final quarterback injury that they couldn’t withstand put the nail in the coffin in a 31-7 loss.

The 49ers now head into the 2023 season still with among the most talent in the league around the quarterback, but with an unsettled situation under center. Garoppolo is now gone for good, signing a long-term deal with the Raiders in free agency. Brock Purdy played well enough that he figures to keep his job as long as he’s healthy, as he completed 67.1% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the regular season, and, while he benefited from a lot of talent around him, he was PFF’s 15th ranked quarterback with a 76.6 PFF grade over that stretch as well.

However, Purdy might not be ready for the start of the season after off-season surgery and, even if he is, he might not be 100% right away or he could prove to be a fluke, as we have still only seen a small sample size from him. The 49ers still have Trey Lance, who could start if Purdy isn’t ready for the beginning of the year, but he hasn’t shown a lot in limited action in his career and the 49ers took a flier on another former 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold this off-season and it’s very possible he jumps Lance on the depth chart. 

Darnold has just a 78.2 QB rating in 55 starts in his career, but he had a 92.6 QB rating in six starts last season with the Panthers after returning from injury, he has never had anywhere near as good of a coaching staff and supporting cast as he’ll have with the 49ers, and he’s only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside. Both he and Lance have low floors, but they both come with upside as well and it’s very possible Darnold ends up as the week one starter if he beats out Lance and Purdy isn’t ready right away at the beginning of the year. It’s definitely a situation to watch, on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, this team went on a 12-game winning streak starting with the first game in which they used Christian McCaffrey in a feature back role after acquiring him in a trade from the Panthers. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all of the credit, as that coincided with this team getting healthier and getting better quarterback play under center with Jimmy Garoppolo and later Brock Purdy, rather than Trey Lance at the beginning of the year. However, McCaffrey’s impact on this offense still can’t be understated.

In many ways, McCaffrey was almost a perfect fit for the 49ers, who are a run heavy team (9th in the league with 504 rush attempts and just 27th in the league with 512 pass attempts) and who love dual threat players like McCaffrey that can excel in multiple different areas, as McCaffrey does as a runner and a receiver. Because he doesn’t have a real weakness, McCaffrey was a true every down back, playing 46.5 snaps per game in the 13 games after he became the featured back last season. 

McCaffrey’s 4.69 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 159 carries was impressive, but his biggest value to this team was as a receiver, as he finished the season second on the team with a 1.86 yards per route run average, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs, while turning 65 targets into a 52/464/4 slash line in 11 regular season games and receiving a 91.4 grade from PFF as a receiver, best in the NFL among eligible running backs. That’s pretty par for the course for a player who has exceeded 80 in receiving grade on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while averaging 1.78 yards per route run and catching 442 passes for 3,756 yards and 22 touchdowns in 75 career games.

McCaffrey has also turned 1,025 carries into 4,726 yards and 38 touchdowns (4.61 YPC) in those 75 games in six seasons in the league. Injuries were a big problem for him in 2020 and 2021, limiting him to 212 touches in 10 games total across those two seasons, and, even if he’s not necessarily an injury prone player, exceeding 300 touches in the other three of his last five seasons in the league, he does play a position with a higher than average injury risk, especially for a player who sees the workload that McCaffrey does. However, McCaffrey is still only going into his age 27 season and is unlikely to start declining this season, so, if he can stay healthy, he should continue playing at a similar level as he has in recent years.

With this being a run-heavy team and McCaffrey seeing extra touches in the passing game, the 49ers do use other running backs to try to keep McCaffrey healthy. Their preferred #2 option at the running back position is Elijah Mitchell, who missed 12 regular season games with injury last season and found himself behind McCaffrey on the depth chart when he returned, but who still received 62 carries in 6 games that he played with McCaffrey on the roster, taking them for 4.69 YPC, not far behind McCaffrey himself, who had 69 carries in those 6 games.

Mitchell was just a 6th round pick in 2021, but he received 207 carries in 11 games as a rookie and took them for a 4.65 YPC average and 5 touchdowns, proving to be a great fit in the 49ers’ zone blocking scheme. He’s not much of a pass catcher, with a career 0.82 yards per route run average, and durability has been a problem for him, as he also missed 6 games as a rookie, but he has shown himself more than capable of playing a part-time role as an early down specialist, allowing the 49ers to be run-heavy and to frequently use McCaffrey in the passing game, without overloading him too much.

If Mitchell gets hurt, behind him on the depth chart the 49ers have 2022 3rd round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, who struggled with a 2.91 YPC on 34 rookie year carries, but who could be better in year two, and 2022 undrafted free agent Jordan Mason, who averaged 6.00 YPC on 43 rookie year carries, as well as a pair of 2023 undrafted free agents Khalan Laborn and Ronald Awatt, who have an outside chance of making this final roster. McCaffrey is obviously the focal point of this backfield, but they have good depth behind him as well and this blocking scheme has a history of getting the most out of overlooked running backs, so the 49ers should be in good shape at this position.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

McCaffrey was added to a receiving corps that already had a lot of playmakers in it and, given that, it’s reasonable to expect that the 49ers other pass catchers would see a statistical drop off when he was added. However, while the 49ers’ other pass catchers did see their target share drop, for the most part their efficiency improved so much with McCaffrey around that they didn’t see a significant drop off in total production. 

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings had slash lines that extrapolated to 78/940/5 on 131 targets, 78/981/7 on 119 targets, and 34/437/2 on 58 targets respectively before McCaffrey’s became the featured back. In the 13 games after McCaffrey became the featured back, their slash lines extrapolated to 70/861/2, 68/942/7, and 39/468/0 respectively on target totals of 117, 98, and 60 respectively. Tight end George Kittle had the biggest drop off in target share, from a 116 target pace to a 69 target pace, but he still only saw his extrapolated slash line fall from 85/952/3 to 59/849/13. All four of those aforementioned receivers are back for 2023, along with McCaffrey, so I would expect more of the same, barring a massive drop off in quarterback play.

If anything, Deebo Samuel could be even better in 2023 than he was last season, as last year was a down year for him, as his yards per route run average dropped to 1.69, from 2.51 over his first three seasons in the league from 2019-2021, including 2.98 yards per route run and a 77/1405/6 slash line on 121 targets in 2021 (11.61 yards per target, as opposed to 6.72 yards per target in 2022). He might not bounce back all the way in 2023 and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 15 games in four seasons in the league and limiting him in several others, but he didn’t need a huge target share to produce at that level in 2021 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approached that level of production again if he can stay healthy in 2023, even with a lot of other options in this passing game.

Like many of the 49ers’ key players, Deebo Samuel is a dual threat, also adding 597 yards and 11 touchdowns on 101 carries over the past two seasons (5.91 YPC), lining up occasionally as a running back out of the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk is more of a traditional wide receiver, but the 2020 first round pick has developed into an above average one, going from a 60/748/5 slash line, 1.73 yards per route run average, and 80.1 PFF grade as a rookie to 56/816/5, 1.68, and 74.4 respectively in 2021 to 78/1015/8, 1.91, and 80.3 respectively in 2022. He’s not an elite wide receiver, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he could easily continue being an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Jauan Jennings is an underwhelming wide receiver, but he’s a decent option as the #3 wide receiver, averaging 1.38 yards per route run in that role over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a 7th round rookie in 2020. He will likely keep that job in 2023, though he could be challenged for the role by Danny Gray, a 2022 3rd round pick who only played 87 snaps as a rookie, but who could be ready for a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023.

Tight end George Kittle is the most likely of this bunch to see a statistical drop off in 2023. As I mentioned, his target share dropped off significantly once McCaffrey was added and, while he had a huge leap in efficiency at the same time, catching 85.5% of his passes for an average of 12.30 yards per attempt and a touchdown every 5.31 targets over a 13-game span, he’s unlikely to continue being quite that good in 2023, in part because no one is ever that good over an extended period of time, but also because he now is heading into his age 30 season and could be begin to decline soon. 

Meanwhile, Kittle’s decreased target share is likely to remain, given that he and McCaffrey operate in similar parts of the field. Kittle has also had consistent durability problems throughout his career, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and being limited in several others, which not only means he could miss more time with injury this season, but it could also contribute to him declining quicker than expected as he goes into his 30s. 

All of this considered, I would expect Kittle to be a smaller part of this passing game this season than he has been in the past. Fortunately, Kittle is also an above average run blocker, which, combined with his career 2.34 yards per route run average, has led to him finishing above 80 overall on PFF in five straight seasons, so even if he declines, it will be from a pretty high level and he should remain above average as both a blocker and a pass catcher, one of the few tight ends in the league who can say so. 

The 49ers also added Alabama tight end Cameron Latu in the 3rd round of the draft to give them a younger development option at the position and he will compete with 2020 6th round pick Charlie Woerner to be the #2 tight end, a battle he could win even as a rookie, with Woerner having played just 567 snaps with a 0.72 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Both could play small roles in a receiving corps that has among the most talent of any in the league, especially when you consider the dual threat Christian McCaffrey.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The 49ers’ offensive line has been a strength for them for years, but they have lost significant players in each of the last two off-seasons. Last off-season, they lost starting center Alex Mack and starting left guard Laken Tomlinson and, while their replacements, 2021 2nd round pick Aaron Banks and career backup Jake Brendel respectively, both had decent seasons in 2022, with PFF grades of 62.7 in 16 starts and 64.9 in 17 starts respectively, this off-season they lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had a 71.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, and their top option at right guard, Daniel Brunskill, who had a 69.0 PFF grade on 518 snaps, without really replacing either of them.

Swing tackle Colton McKivitz, a 2020 5th round pick, is likely the favorite to replace McGlinchey at right tackle, but he has played just 439 snaps in three seasons in the league and, while he hasn’t been horrible in that limited action, he will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from McGlinchey. Other candidates for the right tackle job are 2021 5th round pick Jaylon Moore and veteran free agent addition Matt Pryor, but Moore hasn’t shown much on 329 career snaps, while Pryor is a career backup who has been middling at best in 24 starts in five seasons in the league, so they would both be big downgrades from McGlinchey as well.

With Brunskill gone at right guard, that job will fall to Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who actually was their primary starter at the position last season, with 744 snaps played, but who also struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade and who is no guarantee to be significantly better in his second season in the league. Burford is almost definitely locked into that job, but only by default, with their best alternative probably being 2022 6th round pick Nick Zakelj, who played just 12 snaps as a rookie.

Brendel and Banks remain at center and left guard for the second straight seasons, without a better option or a competent backup on the roster at either spot. Banks is a former high draft pick who is only going into his third season in the league, so he should continue being at least a competent starter, with the upside to be even more. Brendel, however, is already in his age 31 season, despite last year being his first year as a primary starter, as the 2016 undrafted free agent had made just 3 starts across his first 6 seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible Brendel could continue being a decent starter, but he doesn’t have much upside and, given his age and lack of experience, he could easily regress this season.

The saving grace of this offensive line is dominant left tackle Trent Williams, who is their only starting offensive lineman remaining from two years ago and a player who, if he plays at his best, elevates this whole offensive line by a significant amount, coming off three seasons where he has received PFF grades of 91.9, 97.8, and 93.0, while finishing above 80 on PFF in 8 of his last 10 seasons. However, Williams is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of aging yet, it’s very possible he regresses at least a little bit this season, which would weaken this offensive line even more. Williams’ presence still elevates this group by a significant amount, but the rest of this group is pretty inexperienced and Williams age is becoming a concern.

Grade: B- 

Edge Defenders

In addition to all the talent the 49ers have around the quarterback on offense, the 49ers also have a lot of talented players on defense, retaining most of a defense that finished last season 1st in defensive DVOA. Probably the most talented of those players is edge defender Nick Bosa, who received the Defensive Player of the Year award for his performance in 2022, totaling 18.5 sacks (most in the NFL), 30 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while excelling against the run and finishing 3rd among edge defenders on PFF with a 90.9 overall grade on 745 snaps.

It was a career best year for Bosa, but it was nothing new for a player who has 43 sacks, 68 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate in 51 career games and who had previously received grades of 86.7, 84.9, and 88.3 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Bosa should continue playing at a very high level in 2023 and should be on the short list to defend his title and win Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year.

The 49ers have a bit of a concern at the edge defender position behind Bosa though. Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam both played heavy rotational roles last season and fared pretty well, with Omenihu receiving a 67.5 PFF grade on 572 snaps and Ebukam receiving a 69.1 PFF grade on 559 snaps, but are no longer on the team. The 49ers have 2022 2nd round pick Drake Jackson set to play a bigger role in year two, after showing potential with a 64.1 grade on 315 snaps as a rookie, but, aside from him, the 49ers other options at the position are a pair of low end veteran free agent acquisitions Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant, as well as 5th round rookie Robert Beal, who would likely struggle if he played a significant role in year one.

Ferrell seems like their best reserve option, signed to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Ferrell has been a bust as the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t been a bad player either. He only has 10 sacks, 23 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 58 career games, but that’s in part because he’s lined up on the interior in some pass rush situations, where it’s harder to pressure the passer, and he’s been a solid run stuffer, leading to him finishing above 60 overall on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, with an average of 466 snaps played per season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, Ferrell may still have untapped upside and, at the very least, should be a solid rotational player. Bryant, on the other hand, was a 4th round pick in 2019 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 247 snaps per season. He figures to continue struggling, even in what is likely to be a deep reserve role. Nick Bosa’s presence elevates this position group significantly and Drake Jackson has upside, but the 49ers are kind of top heavy at this position, after losing a pair of useful contributors from a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a relative weakness for the 49ers last season, with seven players playing at least 147, but no more than 357 snaps, with no one finishing above 63.3 on PFF. They should be significantly better in this group next season though. For one, they added Javon Hargrave on a big 4-year, 84 million dollar deal in free agency. That makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, but it could easily be worth it, if he continues to play like he has in recent years.

His run defense has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he’s always been an effective pass rusher, with a 11.2% pressure rate in his career, and he’s been especially effective over the past seven seasons, finishing above 80 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 23 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 48 games. The one concern with Hargrave is he is going into his age 30 season and could begin declining soon, perhaps as soon as this season, but, even at less than his best, he should be a welcome addition for this position group.

Hargrave figures to start next to Arik Armstead, who could bounce back from a disappointing and injury plagued 2022 campaign to give them another above average every down player. From 2017-2021, Armstead finished above 70 on PFF in all five seasons, totaling 24 sacks, 29 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate over that stretch and also playing pretty well against the run, showing himself to be a well-rounded every down player by finishing above 60 in both pass rush and run defense grade in all five seasons and playing 45.9 snaps per game in 71 games. 

In 2022, however, Armstead played just 349 snaps in 9 games due to injury and finished with a 63.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Armstead now heads into his age 30 season and his best days could be behind him as a result. However, he’s also not totally over the hill and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, even if he’s not at his peak form, and he should be healthier and play a bigger role than a year ago. He and Hargrave could easily both be above average starters, which would make this group significantly better than a year ago.

The 49ers were originally counting on 2020 1st round pick Javon Kinlaw to be the long-term starter next to Armstead, but he has proven to be a bust thus far in his career, finishing with a 54.1 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, before missing 24 games and being limited to 311 snaps total over the next two seasons due to injury, while again failing to top a 60 grade on PFF in both seasons. Kinlaw still has untapped potential if he can stay healthy and the 49ers probably won’t need him to be anything more than a reserve, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s already in his age 26 season and there’s a good chance he doesn’t develop much beyond this.

The 49ers also have veterans Kerry Hyder (357 snaps) and Kevin Givens (354 snaps) returning to compete for reserve roles, although both are pretty underwhelming options. Hyder has had some solid years in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.7, 68.0, and 68.6 respectively on snap counts of 659, 439, and 722 respectively in 2016, 2019, and 2020 respectively, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons.

Hyder now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him as a result, and he figures to remain an underwhelming option even as a reserve. Givens, meanwhile, has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career, while maxing out at 387 snaps in a season. Neither he nor Hyder should be guaranteed a roster spot, but one of them will probably have to serve in at least a deep reserve role. Fortunately, the 49ers have a great every down starting duo and could get more out of former first round pick Javon Kinlaw, now in a reserve role and hopefully healthy, so this is an above average group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The 49ers also had a pair of high level players at the off ball linebacker position, with Fred Warner (1,026 snaps) and Dre Greenlaw (850 snaps) finishing 4th and 7th respectively at the position with PFF grades of 83.7 and 81.2 respectively. For Warner, last year’s high level performance was nothing new, as the 2018 3rd round pick has been an every down starter since entering the league, playing at least 973 snaps every season and missing just 1 game ever, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three straight seasons over 75, with his career best year coming in 2020 when he had a 88.6 grade. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best every down linebackers in the league. 

For Greenlaw, however, 2022 was a career best year, as he had shown flashes of high level play in his first three seasons in the league, but he had never exceeded a 69.5 grade on PFF, while missing 16 games due to injury in three seasons. It’s possible the 2019 5th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down linebacker for years to come, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did last season and he could easily regress or suffer another injury in 2023. I would still expect him to be at least a solid every down linebacker, but it might be hard for him to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row.

The 49ers lost Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency and he was one of the best 3rd linebackers in the league, a player with every down skills who was overqualified for his limited role, but he only played 313 snaps for them last season (67.8 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much, unless the 49ers have an injury at the position. The 49ers used a 6th round pick on TCU’s Dee Winters as a potential long-term replacement, but, most likely, the 3rd linebacker job will go to one of their top reserves from last year, either Oren Burks (156 snaps) or Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (81 snaps). 

Burks flashed potential in his limited role and was a 3rd round pick back in 2018, but he’s also only played 641 defensive snaps total in five seasons in the league and last season was the first of his career in which he didn’t finish below 60 on PFF. Flannigan-Fowles, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019 and has played just 306 nondescript snaps on defense in his career. Neither will have to play a big role, but the 49ers do use a 3rd linebacker in base packages and, if either of their top-2 linebackers got hurt, the 49ers would be forced to rely on one or both of Burks and Flannigan-Fowles in a significant role, which would be a problem. Warner and Greenlaw are a high level every down duo, even if Greenlaw isn’t a guarantee to be as good again as he was a year ago, but depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: A

Secondary

One position that could be a weakness on this defense this season is the cornerback position. Top cornerback Charvarius Ward remains, coming off of a season in which he ranked 4th among cornerbacks with a 83.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he had never previously exceeded 69.5 in a season in four prior years in the league, so there’s a good chance he is unable to be quite as good again in 2023 and, even if he can repeat the best year of his career, the 49ers have a lot of concerns behind him at the position. Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both left in free agency and, while the former was a slot specialist who missed 5 games and played just 509 snaps total, and the latter was limited to 312 snaps in 5 games by injury, they still had impressive grades of 76.1 and 70.9 respectively on PFF and the 49ers don’t have any other cornerbacks who are likely to play at that level, even in a limited role.

The 49ers will almost definitely continue using 2021 5th pick Deommodore Lenior as one of their top-3 cornerbacks, after he played 887 snaps and made 13 starts a year ago, with Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both missing significant time with injury, and they added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency on a 2-year, 6.75 million dollar deal, which should lock him in as the other top-3 cornerback, with Oliver and Lenoir competing to be the nominal #2 cornerback. 

Lenoir struggled in that extended role last season though, posting a 55.9 grade on PFF, and there’s no guarantee he’s any better in 2023, as he wasn’t a high draft pick and also struggled on 238 snaps as a rookie. Oliver, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2018 and has shown flashes of impressive play, surpassing 70 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons, but he’s also missed a total of 20 games over those three seasons combined and, in his only two full seasons as a starter in his career (2019 and 2020), he finished below 60 on PFF, so he’s never played at a high level for an extended period of time. He still has potential if he can stay healthy, but he’s not really a reliable option.

With Lenoir likely to struggle and Oliver unreliable, the 49ers could need significant playing time out of their reserve cornerbacks. Samuel Womack, a 2022 5th round pick who flashed potential on 146 rookie year snaps, seems like the best of the bunch, but he’s still an unproven player who wasn’t drafted highly. Ambry Thomas was a higher pick, going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he struggled mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and wasn’t much better while only playing 41 snaps in his second season in the league last year. The 49ers also added South Alabama’s Darrell Luter in the 5th round of the draft and signed veteran Myles Hartsfield, though the former would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, while the latter has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, playing 475 snaps per snaps as a mostly a slot specialist with the Panthers.

At safety, the 49ers return Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson, who were solid with PFF grades of 68.8 and 67.2 respectively last season, while starting all 17 games. Hufanaga should have a similar season in 2023. He was only a 6th round pick in 2021, but flashed potential on 395 snaps as a rookie, before being a solid starter a year ago. He might not have much more untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being a solid starter for years to come. 

Gipson, on the other hand, is now going into his age 33 season and is much less safe of a bet to continue being a solid starter. Gipson has been a starter for most of his 11-year NFL career (149 starts), but he hasn’t always been the most consistent player, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons and, now well into his 30s, there’s a good chance he ends up struggling this season. Perhaps with that in mind, the 49ers used a 3rd round pick on Penn State’s Ja’Ayir Brown as a potential long-term replacement, but it’s unclear how much of a positive impact he’ll be able to make in year one. With Gipson potentially being a liability and questions at cornerback, this secondary is the relative weakness of this defense, but this isn’t a bad unit either.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 49ers still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but there are questions at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy being inexperienced and coming off of a major injury and Sam Darnold and Trey Lance both having upside, but also considerable downside. They also aren’t quite as talented overall as they have been in recent years, especially on the offensive line, which has lost four of five starters just since a couple years ago, which could easily end up being a concern, especially when you pair it with their questions at the quarterback position. 

The 49ers are still a high level team in by far the least talented of the two conferences, so they should have a pretty clear path to winning a bunch of regular season games and making a run into the post-season, but I wouldn’t put them in the top tier contender category, as most of the top teams in the AFC are still better than the 49ers and I wouldn’t say they are the top team in the NFC either. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC West

Washington Commanders 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

Over the past five seasons, Washington has started twelve different quarterbacks, most in the league over that span. Prior to the past five seasons, Washington had Kirk Cousins, who made all 48 starts from 2015-2017 and was solid with a 97.5 QB rating, but Washington opted not to pay him the big contract long-term he wanted and let him walk in free agency. Cousins hasn’t exactly been worth his big contract over the past five seasons in Minnesota, posting a 100.9 QB rating, but winning just one playoff game and costing the Vikings 155 million over five seasons, with another 30 million due in 2023, but Washington has had such a hard time replacing him that they might have been better off biting the bullet and bringing Cousins back, instead of going on the quarterback carousel they’ve been on the past five seasons.

Washington’s quarterback issues in recent years haven’t been for lack of trying to find a solution either. They originally traded a third round pick and a starting cornerback Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs for veteran starter Alex Smith, who they gave a 4-year, 94 million dollar deal with 71 million guaranteed to be Cousins’ replacement, but he suffered a major injury midway through his first season in Washington and wound up making just 16 total starts for Washington in three seasons, while taking home all of his guaranteed money. 

Washington then turned to the draft the following off-season, taking Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019, but he lasted just two seasons in Washington, with a 74.4 QB rating in 13 starts. Another veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick, got a 1-year deal worth 10 million for the 2021 season, but lasted just 6 pass attempts before suffering a season ending and ultimately career ending injury. The Commanders then traded away a pair of third round picks last off-season to acquire Carson Wentz and his 28.3 million dollar salary from the Colts, but Wentz struggled and wound up with a 80.2 QB rating in just 7 total starts before being released this off-season.

Despite all the assets Washington has committed to the quarterback position in recent years, the quarterback who has made the most starts for them recently is Taylor Heinicke, a former undrafted free agent who was supposed to be a backup. Heinicke hasn’t been bad in his 22 starts over the past two seasons, but he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 87.5, while receiving grades of 59.4 and 49.8 from PFF in the past two seasons, suggesting he should stay a backup long-term. 

Washington had opportunities to be aggressive and commit more significant resources to the quarterback position this off-season, whether in a trade for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers, or by moving up into the top-4 of the draft to select a high level young quarterback prospect, but the Commanders took a more conservative approach, opting to see what 2022 5th round pick Sam Howell has, while adding Jacoby Brissett on an incentivized 1-year, 8 million dollar deal to replace Heinicke as a veteran backup and insurance option in case Howell struggles.

Howell wasn’t a high draft pick, even in a bad quarterback draft, and he was pretty nondescript in just one start (19 pass attempts) as a rookie, so the odds would seem to be against him developing into the solution at quarterback for the Commanders, but Howell was considered a higher draft pick before a disappointing final collegiate season and the Commanders have been happy with his performance behind the scenes, enough so that they didn’t seem to interested in making a splash addition at the quarterback position. He will likely struggle in his first season as a full-time starter, but there is at least some upside there.

Brissett doesn’t come with much upside, as he’s going into his age 31 season and basically is who he is at this point in his career, making 48 starts in 7 seasons in the league and totaling a 84.4 QB rating. However, he’s coming off a career best year in Cleveland, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts, good for a career high 88.9 QB rating and a career high 75.2 grade from PFF as a passer, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brissett ended up as the starter at some point this season if Howell struggles to show consistency, in which case Brissett could prove to be an upgrade, even if he’s also an underwhelming starter in his own right. Without any significant additions this off-season, this is an underwhelming quarterback room, with Washington giving the starting job to an inexperienced second year player who was just a 5th round pick a year ago. There is some upside here, but most teams have a better quarterback situation than this.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With questions at the quarterback position again and Howell unlikely to be a significant upgrade under center in his first season as a starter, the Commanders will need more from the rest of this supporting cast if they are going to improve from last season, when they went 8-8-1 with a -22 point differential against an easy schedule and finished 22nd overall in DVOA, with their offense finishing 28th. On offense, the Commanders’ offensive line had more changes than any other position group on this team from last year to this year, which makes sense because they were an underwhelming unit a year ago, ranking 26th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 23rd in team run blocking grade, but all of the changes don’t seem to have made this a better offensive line and, in fact, it’s possible they could be even worse than a year ago. 

A lot of the changes the Commanders made on this offensive line this off-season involved moving on from struggling veterans. Center Chase Roullier could have had some bounce back potential if he was healthy, but the Commanders didn’t want to pay his 8.37 million dollar non-guaranteed salary after he had played in just 10 games over the previous two seasons, so he was let go. The Commanders also released Andrew Norwell to save 4.38 million and allowed free agent Trai Turner to walk, after they started 16 games and 12 games respectively last season at guard and received below average grades of 59.8 and 53.0 respectively from PFF. On top of that, Wes Schweitzer and Nick Martin, two of the three centers who made starts at center last season in Roullier’s absence, were not brought back this off-season. 

Added to the mix are veterans Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie, both of whom the Commanders gave 3-year deals, worth 16.5 million and 24 million respectively, and a pair of rookies, third round pick Ricky Stromberg and fourth round pick Braeden Daniels. All four additions have one thing in common, the ability to play multiple positions, as Gates has started at tackle, guard, and center at the professional level, Wylie has started at tackle and guard at the professional level, Stromberg played center and guard at the collegiate level, and Daniels played tackle and guard at the collegiate level. It’s very likely none of those additions wind up being above average starters, but their versatility does at least give the Commanders more options upfront.

Gates will most likely be Washington’s starting center, with Washington’s other options being the rookie Stromberg, who could easily struggle in year one, and career backup Tyler Larsen, who started 8 games last season in Roullier’s absence, but finished with just a 58.2 PFF grade. Larsen has been better in the past, but he’s never been more than a middling starter, he’s made just 29 starts in eight seasons in the league, with a career high of 10 starts in a season, and he now heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not a realistic starting option and ultimately might not even make this team as a reserve, even though he also provides the Commanders with versatility, having made starts at guard in the past.

Gates went undrafted in 2018, but flashed potential on 291 snaps in his second season in the league in 2019 with the Giants, while playing both tackle and guard, which led to him being given a chance to start at center in 2020. Gates made all 16 starts at center and wasn’t horrible with a 59.7 PFF grade, but he suffered a brutal leg injury early in the 2021 season, which has limited him to just 10 starts total over the past two seasons. Gates is only in his age 28 season and seems to have finally made a full recovery, starting the Giants’ final 7 games (5 at guard, 2 at center) and receiving a 64.8 PFF over that stretch. He doesn’t come with a lot of upside, but as long as he can avoid further injury, he should at least be a capable starter wherever that ends up being, most likely center, given the Commanders’ other options.

The strength of this offensive line is probably the tackle position. Holdovers Charles Leno, Cornelius Lucas, and Samuel Cosmi all played above average as starters last season, making 17 starts, 12 starts, and 5 starts respectively last season and receiving grades of 71.6, 67.7, and 71.6 from PFF. With Andrew Wylie being added to the mix in free agency, at least one of those players will have to play guard, likely Wylie, who has the most extensive experience of the bunch at that position.

Wylie has spent the past two seasons as a tackle (24 starts), but he was primarily a guard prior to that, making 34 starts at guard from 2018-2020, as opposed to just one start at tackle over that stretch. Wylie has never been more than a middling starter, but he’s been decent regardless of where he’s played, receiving 66.0, 67.4, and 54.9 grades from PFF during his three seasons as primarily a guard and 67.2 and 63.1 grades from PFF during his two seasons as primarily a tackle. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season regardless of where he plays, most likely guard, given Washington’s other options.

Leno was the best of Washington’s tackles last season with a 71.6 PFF grade, which is in line with how he’s played for most of his career as a starter, finishing above 70 on PFF in six of the past seven seasons, while making 114 starts, with a career best 81.2 just a couple years ago in 2021. Leno now heads into his age 32 season and could easily decline this season, but, barring a massive dropoff, he should remain at least a solid starter with the upside for more if he continues not showing his age. He figures to be locked in as the starter at left tackle again.

Cosmi also had a good year last season, receiving a 71.6 PFF grade, but he also missed three games and was limited in others due to injury, which is a concern because the 2021 3rd round pick also missed eight games as a rookie. Cosmi flashed a lot of potential as a rookie too, with a 74.9 PFF grade, so, if he can stay healthy, he could easily be an above average starter for the Commanders in 2023, now in his third season in the league, but he does come with some downside, having not made it through a full season as a starter yet in his career. He’ll likely start at right tackle, but theoretically could also move inside to guard, though he has made just one start there at the professional level.

Lucas entered last season as a reserve and he has never made more than 12 starts in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he’s been one of the best swing tackles in the league in recent years, making 35 starts over the past four seasons and receiving grades of 72.2, 78.2, 75.2, and 67.7 from PFF respectively. Lucas is going into his age 32 season now and is still a projection to a season-long starting role, so he is likely to remain as the swing tackle, but he would likely still be one of the top swing tackles in the league and it’s possible he could see some starts at right tackle, with both Cosmi and Wylie playing guard in that scenario.

Guard is probably the weakest position of this offensive line, but the Commanders do at least have options. One of Cosmi or Wylie will likely start at one guard spot and it’s possible both could play guard if they wanted to give Lucas a shot at right tackle. Other guard options include the rookies Stromberg and Daniels, 2020 4th round pick Saahdiq Charles, who has mostly struggled in 545 snaps (8 starts) in three seasons in the league, and 2022 7th round pick Chris Paul, who was mediocre in 66 rookie year snaps. 

The Commanders have options on this offensive line, but they are likely to have at least one weak spot in the starting lineup and, outside of Leno and Cosmi, they don’t have any starters who are likely to be above average and even that’s not a guarantee, given Leno’s age and that Cosmi has a significant injury history and might be playing out of position at guard. This is likely to remain a below average group, despite all the changes made this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

To compensate for their underwhelming passing game, the Commanders were a run-heavy team last season, ranking 20th in the NFL with 554 pass attempts and 4th with 538 run attempts. With Howell being a first-time starter, the Commanders figure to remain run-heavy in 2023. They ranked just 28th in the NFL last season with 3.98 YPC, but they were better than that suggests, as their top-two running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson had carry success rates of 53% and 50% respectively, on carry totals of 205 and 149 respectively, meaning both backs kept this offense on schedule at an at least average rate, which is impressive considering the Commanders’ offensive line issues. 

Their low averages were mostly the result of their lack of big plays in the running game, with Robinson managing just six carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 111 yards total, and Gibson managing just three carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 56 yards total. As a percentage of their overall rushing total, Robinson and Gibson had just 13.9% and 10.3% of their yardage on carries of 15+ yards, 10th lowest and 6th lowest respectively out of 60 eligible running backs. Fortunately for them, long carries tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, so both running backs could easily end up with more long carries this season, which would improve their overall averages significantly. 

Robinson has the most upside of the two as a runner, as a 2022 3rd round pick going into his second season in the league, after not being at 100% for most of his rookie season due to injuries suffered when he was the victim of an shooting in the off-season, which also cost him the first five games of his rookie season. Robinson averaged 17.1 carries per game as the lead back upon his return and figures to remain in that role this season, a role in which he will have some breakout potential. 

Gibson is also a former 3rd round pick, being selected there in 2020, and he had more long carries in his first two seasons prior to last season, with 22.8% of his yardage in those two seasons coming on carries of 15+ yards, but that only led to a 4.28 YPC in those two seasons, so Robinson seems like the better option as a runner going forward. Gibson, meanwhile, will be their primary passing down back, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, a steep increase on the 0.72 yards per route run average that Robinson had as a rookie.

The Commanders don’t really need much depth behind their top-two running backs because both have the ability to take on a larger load if needed in the absence of the other, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern, with 6th round rookie Chris Rodriguez likely to be their #3 back and their other options being Jonathan Williams, a special teamer with just 134 carries in seven seasons in the league, and Jaret Patterson, a 2021 undrafted free agent with just a 4.05 YPC average on 85 career carries. 

The Commanders also have Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver, who totaled 187 yards on 38 carries, of which came out of the backfield. He might not get that many carries in a new offensive scheme this season, but he does have 114 carries for 676 yards and 6 touchdowns in six seasons in the league. Even not including the hybrid Curtis Samuel, this is a solid backfield, with a pair of solid backs who will work in tandem and complement each other well and who are capable of being the featured back for a stretch if needed.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to getting more long runs out of their backfield, another way this offense could improve somewhat in 2023 is by getting more out of 2022 first round pick Jahan Dotson, which would give them a much needed second reliable target in this receiving corps other than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin averaged 2.04 yards per route run with a 77/1191/5 slash line last season, in line with his 1.94 yards per route run average and 75/1070/5 slash line average in four seasons in the league, and he is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but the only other wide receiver on this team to even surpass 1.40 yards per route run last season was Dyami Brown, who played just 169 snaps and had 52.4% of his receiving yardage on one 75-yard play.

Dotson wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he had just a 35/523/7 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run average, two things he has the potential to improve on in his second season in the league, even if his upside is likely going to be capped as the #2 receiver in an underwhelming passing game. He’s not a guarantee to take a step forward, but he at least gives the Commanders some room for optimism. Curtis Samuel was the nominal #2 receiver last season, with 92 targets to Dotson’s 61, but he took them for just a 64/656/4 slash line, a 7.13 yards per target average, as opposed to 8.57 for Dotson, and Samuel averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, even though he was targeted more frequently than Dotson

Samuel is a former second round pick by the Panthers in 2017 and he has shown flashes of why he was a high draft pick through his 6-year career, but has just a 1.34 yards per route run average for his career, with 23 total games missed due to injury, and, now in his age 27 season, he probably is who he is at this stage of his career, so he should be the third option in this passing game, with Dotson giving them more upside in a bigger role in his second season in the league. 

Samuel still will have somewhat of a role in this offense though, as they don’t have much depth behind him, with their likely #4 receiver being Dyami Brown, who was a third round pick in 2021, but who has played just 504 snaps in two seasons in the league and who has just a 16/233/1 slash line in his career outside of that one aforementioned 75-yard play. He has a little upside, but he’s underwhelming as a #4 receiver and would likely not contribute much if forced into a larger role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Commanders also don’t have much at the tight end position. Logan Thomas was their primary receiving tight end, but he took 61 targets in 14 games for a 39/323/1 slash line, while averaging 0.88 yards per route run. Thomas has averaged just 1.01 yards per route run for his career and now heads into his age 32 season, so he’s a very underwhelming starting option who could struggle even more than he did last season, but the Commanders don’t have another great option. John Bates played 510 snaps last season and 519 snaps in 2021, but he was primarily a blocker, running a route on just 35.4% of those snaps. Bates has been one of the better run blocking tight ends in the league over the past two seasons, since being selected in the 4th round in 2021, but his career 1.06 yards per route run average doesn’t suggest that he deserves more playing time in passing situations. 

The Commanders also used a 5th round pick in last year’s draft on Cole Turner and he could play a bigger role in his second season at Thomas’ expense, after playing 245 snaps as a rookie, but he didn’t show much as a receiver either, with a 0.32 yards per route run average with his very limited action. The possible emergence of Jahan Dotson as an above average starting wide receiver in his second season in the league gives this group the upside to be better than a year ago, when they lacked a reliable target aside from Terry McLaurin, but this group still lacks depth at the wide receiver position and doesn’t have a reliable pass catching tight end.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Even if their offense ends up being slightly better this year than a year ago, they still figure to be a below average unit, so they will need their defense to continue playing well, after finishing last season 9th in defensive DVOA. Defensive performance tends to be much less predictive and predictable year-to-year than offensive performance and, as a result, it tends to be much tougher for a good defense to repeat that performance the following season than a good offense, but the Commanders didn’t have any significant losses on defense this off-season and actually have a couple key players who could be healthier than a year ago, so they have a better chance than most teams of continuing to play at a high level or possibly even a higher level on that side of the ball.

The most notable of those key players who should be healthier is Chase Young, who missed all but three games (114 snaps) as he struggled to recover from a torn ACL suffered during the 2021 season. Young was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, won Defensive Rookie of the Year with a season in which he received a 87.2 grade from PFF on 770 snaps, and was on his way to another good season in 2021, with a 75.1 PFF grade on 477 snaps, before suffering that torn ACL in week 10. Young still had a 78.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season and, only in his age 24 season in 2023, another year removed from his injury, Young has obvious bounce back potential. The Commanders aren’t completely sold on his durability long-term, declining his 5th year option for 2024, which would have guaranteed him 17.452 million, but he could still be a big asset for them, now in the final year of his rookie deal in 2023.

In Young’s absence, the Commanders got a good year from fellow edge defender Montez Sweat, as he received a 86.4 PFF grade on 731 snaps, a big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago. That was a career best grade for Sweat and he might not be as good again in 2023, but him playing at a high level isn’t really new, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 75 overall on PFF in three straight seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 at the very least. Sweat is at his best as a run defender, with grades of 86.0, 82.4, and 79.8 in run defense over the past three seasons, but he also has 22 sacks, 39 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate over those three seasons, including 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate a year ago.

James Smith-Williams (506 snaps), Casey Toohill (347 snaps), and Efe Obada (391 snaps) saw significant action in Young’s absence last season and, with all three returning to this team for 2023, I would expect them to be their top reserves again, with 5th and 7th round rookies KJ Henry and Andre Jones added as competition. The rookies are unlikely to contribute much though and all three of those aforementioned veterans were mediocre in their limited action though, which is not surprising, given their history. 

Smith-Williams was just a 7th round pick in 2020 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, with snap counts of 100 and 388 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Toohill was also a 7th round pick in 2020 and has been middling at best on an average of 253 snaps per season in three seasons in the league. Obada, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2015, has averaged just 308 snaps per season over the past five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, and now heads into his age 31 season. Fortunately, depth won’t be needed as much at this position with Chase Young likely to be healthier than a year ago and, even with suspect depth, this is still an impressive position group because of their dominant starting duo.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Another big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago was the play of interior defender Jonathan Allen, who was PFF’s 11th ranked interior defender with a 80.1 PFF grade on 802 snaps. Like Montez Sweat, Allen’s high level of play in 2022 was not out of the ordinary for him, as he’s now finished above 80 on PFF in three straight seasons, while surpassing 750 snaps played in all three seasons as well. Allen is only decent as a run defender, but he more than makes up for it by being one of the best interior pass rushers in the league, totaling 18.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. Like Sweat and Young, Allen is also a former first round pick, selected 17th overall in 2017, and still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect another strong season from him in 2023.

Fellow starting interior defender Da’Ron Payne is also a former first round pick (13th in 2018) and also had a strong season, particularly as a pass rusher, as he had a 72.0 pass rush grade on PFF and totaled 11.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. Payne’s run defense was a liability and he missed a position leading 12 tackles, so he didn’t have quite as good of a season as Allen, but he was still an asset for this defensive line and the Commanders obviously value him highly, keeping him as a free agent on a 4-year, 90 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league in average annual salary.  Payne might not be quite worth that salary if his run defense doesn’t improve, but he did post above average run defense grades on PFF in his first three seasons in the league, prior to struggling the past two seasons, and, only going into his age 26 season, he has bounce back potential as a run defender. 

Payne wasn’t as good as a pass rusher earlier in his career, totaling a 5.8% pressure rate across those first three seasons in the league, but he’s not a one-year wonder in that aspect either, finishing with a 74.1 pass rush grade on PFF in 2021, with 4.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate, giving him back-to-back seasons where he’s been well above average as an interior pass rusher. He should remain an asset for this team even if his run defense doesn’t bounce back and it wouldn’t be a shock if this ended up being his best all-around season, if he can return to form as a run defender and continue rushing the passer at a high level.

Depth was a problem at the interior defender position a year ago, but with Payne and Allen playing 907 snaps and 802 snaps respectively (3rd and 13th among interior defenders in snap count) depth wasn’t really needed that much and their depth should be better this season, with 2022 2nd round pick Phidarian Mathis set to return after missing all but 3 snaps in his rookie season due to injury. Payne and Allen still figure to play significant every down snap counts even with Mathis returning, but Mathis should still have a role as a rotational reserve and he has the potential to fare well in that role, while giving them a decent insurance option in case Payne or Allen get hurt. 

The Commanders also still have John Ridgeway, their top reserve from a year ago with 279 snaps played, but the 2022 5th round pick struggled mightily as a rookie with a 48.9 PFF grade and, while he could be better in year two, he’s no guarantee to ever develop into even a useful rotational player and he probably would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see more than a deep reserve role. With Allen and Payne being one of the better interior defender duos in the league and Mathis returning from injury to presumably provide better depth than the Commanders had a year ago, this is a strong position group overall.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Commanders aren’t nearly as good in the linebacking corps as they are on the defensive line, but they do have a former first round pick in their linebacking corps as well, Jamin Davis, and he has the upside to have a breakout third season in the league. The 19th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Davis struggled in a part-time role as a rookie, finishing with a 46.8 PFF grade on 581 snaps, but took a step forward in an every down role in his second season in the league in 2022, playing 833 snaps and receiving a 62.9 PFF grade. Davis could regress a little in his third season in the league, but he also still has the upside to be an above average every down linebacker long-term and he could easily take another step forward in year three.

Cole Holcomb had a 66.6 PFF grade last season as the other starter opposite Davis, but he lasted just seven games (446 snaps) due to injury and none of the Commanders’ replacement options fared well, with the rest of this group all finishing below average on PFF. Holcomb wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Commanders did a decent job replacing him with former Seahawk Cody Barton, who they signed to a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. 

Barton, a 3rd round pick in 2019, was mostly a special teamer in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, maxing out at 190 snaps in a season, and he never fared well even in that limited action, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons, but he took a step forward in close to an every down role in 2022, receiving a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps. Barton is a one-year wonder in terms of being even a decent every down player and, as a result, could regress a little bit this season, but that’s definitely not a guarantee and he’s not a bad option on a cheap one-year deal.

The Commanders will need Davis and Barton to stay healthy and hold up in every down roles, as their lack of depth behind them is still a concern, with their top reserve options being David Mayo, primarily a special teamer in his age 30 season who has only exceeded the 202 defensive snaps he played last season one other time in eight seasons in the league, and Khaleke Hudson, a 2020 5th round pick who has seen just 148 defensive snaps in his career. This isn’t a bad position group, but it’s not a good one and their lack of depth would be exposed in the event of an injury.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Chase Young, the other key player on this defense who has a good chance to be healthier than a year ago is safety Kamren Curl, who was limited to 727 snaps in 12 games by injury last season, but excelled when on the field, with a 82.9 PFF grade. A 7th round pick in 2020, Curl is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but, despite where he was drafted, Curl started 25 games across his first two seasons in the league and received grades of 68.1 and 69.4 from PFF on snap counts of 763 and 878 respectively, so his breakout third season in the league didn’t come out of nowhere. Curl might not be quite as good again in 2023, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and could continue being one of the better safeties in the league for years to come and, even if he’s not, he could easily compensate for that by being healthier than a year ago.

Darrick Forrest will remain the other starting safety, after playing 849 snaps in 17 games last season, in the first year as a starter for the 2021 5th round pick. Forrest only played 26 snaps as a rookie, but he showed some potential and wasn’t bad in his first season of significant action in 2022, with a 67.0 PFF grade. He wasn’t highly drafted and, as a result, might not have a huge upside, but he could remain at least a decent starter in 2023 and beyond, even if that ends up being his ceiling, and it’s possible he could have a little untapped potential.

Jeremy Reaves (149 snaps) and Percy Butler (134 snaps) were their top reserve safeties last season, along with hybrid slot cornerback/safety Bobby McCain, and all saw increased action in Curl’s absence. McCain is no longer with the team, but he’s been replaced by another hybrid player, second round rookie Jartavius Martin, and Reaves and Butler both remain. Reaves is probably the better of the two pure safeties, flashing potential in limited action in his career, but he’s also a special teamer who hasn’t exceeded 263 defensive snaps in a season in his career, while Butler is a 2022 4th round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie and Martin is likely to primarily be a cornerback.

Cornerback was arguably the Commanders’ biggest weakness on defense last season, so it’s not surprising they addressed it early in the draft, actually using their first round pick on a cornerback option as well, taking Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes with the 16th overall pick. Forbes and Taylor will compete for roles behind #1 cornerback Kendall Fuller, who was by far their best cornerback a year ago, with a 76.6 PFF grade on 1,030 snaps (17 starts). Fuller has been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s surpassed a 60 grade on PFF in six straight seasons, with four seasons over 70, including back-to-back years over 75, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to drop off significantly this season and he should remain an above average starter.

Benjamin St. Juste (655 snaps) is their top returning cornerback other than Fuller and the 2021 3rd round pick will still be in the mix for a role this season, even with Forbes and Taylor being added, but he’s not a guarantee to win that role and could easily open the season as the 4th cornerback, after mediocre grades of 53.6 and 58.3 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, while starting 15 of 21 games played. St. Juste could have some untapped potential, but he’s already going into his age 26 season and might never develop into even a decent starting option, which is why Forbes and Taylor were added. 

The Commanders also have Danny Johnson, a 2018 undrafted free agent and career special teamer who has flashed potential on snap counts of 336 and 292 over the past two seasons, the two highest single-season totals of his career. He’s unlikely to see a significant role this season, but he should be a good depth option who can probably be relied on in a pinch. With Forbes and Taylor being added and Curl likely to play more games, this group could be better than a year ago, but they are relying heavily on inexperienced young players at the cornerback position, so there’s some downside here too if those young cornerbacks struggle through growing pains.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Commanders finished 8-8-1 in 2022, but their -22 point differential and 22nd ranked DVOA suggests that they were a little worse than their record and, as a result, they will likely have to be at least a little better in 2023 if they want to even match last season’s win total. The Commanders defense should remain one of the better units in the league, even though defensive performance is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, as the Commanders brought back all of their key defenders from a year ago and could have better injury luck this season. However, their offense still looks like one of the weakest in the league. 

Their offensive skill position groups could be better this year with second year players Brian Robinson and Jahan Dotson having the potential to take a step forward in year two, but they still have one of the shakiest quarterback and one of the shakiest offensive line situations in the league and, overall, look like one of the weakest offenses in the league. Their defense will keep them competitive in most games, but, even in a weak NFC, there are better options to secure a wild card spot and make the post-season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC East

New York Giants 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

The Giants were a surprise playoff qualifier a year ago, securing a wild card spot with a 9-7-1 record after most expected them to finish below .500 for the 6th straight season, but they benefited from an easy schedule, going just 2-6 in the regular season against playoff qualifiers and winning 8 of their 9 games by 8 points or fewer, giving them a -6 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 21st in the NFL. The Giants did win a playoff game, but they benefited from facing an even worse playoff qualifier in the Minnesota Vikings, who entered the post-season 21st in DVOA, and then the Giants were subsequently blown out in the second round against a tougher opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles, who won their playoff matchup by 31, after previously beating the Giants by 26 in the only meaningful regular season matchup between the two teams.

The Giants are unlikely to have as easy of a schedule or as good of a record in close games as they did a year ago, so if they want to make it back to the post-season, let alone go on a long post-season run, they had to get better this off-season. Fortunately, there was plenty of opportunity to do that, with the Giants entering the off-season with among the most cap space in the league and having a roster that largely overachieved its talent level last season, thanks to great coaching in Brian Daboll’s first year on the job, and that, as a result, had a lot of room for improvement this off-season.

Unfortunately, even with as much cap space as the Giants had this off-season, they weren’t able to make a ton of additions to this team because they committed a huge contract to keep quarterback Daniel Jones, guaranteeing him 82 million over the next two seasons and paying him up to 160 million over the next 4 seasons, making him the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Jones was the 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and has always had upside, but that is a steep increase for a player whose 5th year option, which would have paid him just 22.384 million in 2023, was declined before last season because the Giants felt he wasn’t worth it.

Jones wasn’t bad in his first three seasons in the league, earning grades of 65.5, 78.4, and 71.1 from PFF, but poor coaching and a lack of a supporting cast led to him completing just 62.8% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 45 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions in 37 starts, while rushing for 5.81 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 172 carries, and durability was always an issue for him, missing at least two starts in each of those three seasons. In 2022, Jones got better coaching, marginally better play from his supporting cast, and probably most importantly stayed healthy, starting all 16 of the Giants’ meaningful games last season, but he still only ranked 17th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 76.0 PFF grade, while completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.79 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, with 5.90 YPC and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries.

Jones may still have further untapped upside, only in his age 26 season, and his statistical production would almost definitely improve with more talent around him, but the history of paying non-elite quarterbacks top quarterback money is not promising. Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 29 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win it all with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap.

Jones’ durability issues also might not be totally behind him, given that he’s suffered a significant injury in three of four seasons in the league. Fortunately, the Giants do at least have a good backup in Tyrod Taylor, who has started 53 games in 12 seasons in the league, totaling a 88.2 QB rating, while adding 2,071 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on 366 carries (5.66 YPC). Taylor would still be a downgrade from Jones if he had to play an extended period of time, but you can do a lot worse at the backup quarterback spot. This is not a bad quarterback room, but Jones was likely overpaid this off-season and backup Tyrod Taylor has a better chance than most backup quarterbacks of having to see action, given Jones’ history of injuries.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Giants needed to address on offense this off-season was their receiving corps. The Giants came into last season with a pair of highly paid veteran receivers Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard, who were on contracts worth up to 72 million over 4 years and up to 41 million over 4 years respectively, and they had another pair of recent high draft picks at the position, 2021 1st round pick Kadarius Toney and 2022 2nd round pick Wan’Dale Robinson. 

However, Shepard and Robinson were limited to 165 snaps in 3 games and 229 snaps in 6 games respectively by torn ACLs that ended their seasons early, Toney was traded to the Chiefs mid-season for a third round pick after playing just 35 snaps in 2 games and falling out of favor with the coaching staff, while Golladay struggled so much in practice and fell out of favor so much with the coaching staff that he played just 261 snaps on the season, despite being highly paid and mostly healthy in a thin receiving corps that was devoid of real playmakers.

With those aforementioned four players contributing little, the Giants tried a variety of other receivers to see what would stick, with their top-5 in terms of snaps played being Darius Slayton (697 snaps), Richie James (524 snaps), Isaiah Hodgins (417 snaps), Marcus Johnson (312 snaps), and David Sills (269 snaps), a group of players that mostly was inexperienced and overlooked heading into last season. Slayton had the most experience of the bunch and, unsurprisingly, saw the most action and was the most productive of the bunch, leading the team in receiving, despite starting the season far down on the depth chart, playing just 18 snaps in the first three games of the season. 

A 5th round pick in 2019, Slayton had averaged a decent 41/610/4 slash line per year with 1.33 yards per route run across his first three seasons in the league prior to last season and saw those numbers jump to 46/724/2 and 1.79 yards per route run last season. Set to be a free agent this off-season, the Giants opted to bring Slayton back on a reasonable 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, suggesting he will continue having a significant role even in what should be an overall improved receiving corps this year, even if only by default.

Along with re-signing Slayton, the Giants also signed ex-Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell to a 1-year, 4.7 million dollar deal, brought back Sterling Shepard on a reduced 1-year, 1.3175 million dollar deal, took a flier on veteran free agent Jamison Crowder (only 27.5K guaranteed), and used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, all of whom figure to compete for roles with Slayton and fellow holdovers Wan’Dale Robinson, Isaiah Hodgins, and David Sills, in a crowded group in which some of the aforementioned players will have to be left off the final roster.

Sills seems like a likely candidate to be left off this roster, averaging just 0.84 yards per route run last season and 0.72 yards per route run in his career since going undrafted in 2019, while Crowder would seem to have shaky hold on a roster spot as well, given how little guaranteed money he got this off-season and the fact that he is going into his age 30 season and coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 93 snaps in four games. Crowder averaged 1.59 yards per route run in his prime across his first six seasons in the league, but the 5-9 177 pounder was never more than a slot specialist and his yards per route run average fell to 1.15 in 2021 and 0.85 last season before the injury, so his best days seem to be behind him.

Shepard also probably has a shaky hold on a roster spot, after not being guaranteed anything on his new contract, but if he’s healthy he probably has a good chance to make this roster, as the 2016 2nd round pick has averaged 1.48 yards per route run in his career, including 1.56 last season. If he’s healthy is the tough part though, as he’s now missed 39 games in 7 seasons in the league, including 24 over just the past 2 seasons, and he’s now going into his age 30 season and coming off yet another significant injury. He may have a little bit left in the tank if he’s healthy, but he could just as easily not contribute to this team at all and/or be left off the final roster.

The rest of this group is likely locked into a roster spot. Robinson missed most of his rookie year with injury, but they used a second round pick on him, he flashed a lot of potential with 1.76 yards per route run average in his limited action and, while his injury recovery complicates his projection, if he’s healthy it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing at that level into a bigger role. Jalin Hyatt is raw and might not contribute much as a rookie, but he should be at least locked into a roster spot and has the talent to potentially make an impact in year one.

Parris Campbell’s contract suggests he will play at least somewhat of a role on this offense, after averaging 1.03 yards per route run and posting a 63/623/3 slash line with the Colts in 2022, mediocre numbers, but largely because of poor quarterback play with the Colts. Campbell was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries limited him to 436 snaps in 15 games across those three seasons, though he did average 1.29 yards per route run across those three seasons when he had better quarterback play. Durability remains a concern with him, even after playing 17 games last season, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and could continue being a decent option at wide receiver if he stays healthy.

Isaiah Hodgins will also likely continue having a role, after proving valuable as a mid-season signing last year, averaging 1.40 yards per route run with a 33/351/4 slash line in his final eight games of the season, after the Buffalo Bills gave up on the 2020 6th round pick too soon. Hodgins is a complete one-year wonder, never catching a pass prior to last season and catching just four passes with the Bills last year before they let him go mid-season, so he could prove to be a fluke, but he also still could be a useful receiver for them. The Giants lack a clear #1 wide receiver, but they do have a lot of options at the position and, overall, should be better than a year ago, even if that’s not saying much.

The Giants also added tight end Darren Waller this off-season, which was their biggest addition, sending a third round pick to the Raiders to acquire Waller and the 11.875 million he’s owed this season, and he could be the de facto #1 receiver for this team. In his prime, Waller was one of the best tight ends in the league, posting 83.2 and 86.5 grades on PFF in 2019 and 2020 respectively, while totaling slash lines of 90/1146/3 and 107/1196/9 respectively, while averaging 2.35 yards per route run total. 

However, Waller has missed 14 games with injury over the past two seasons combined, while watching his yards per route run averages drop to 1.74 and 1.58 and his slash lines drop to 55/665/2 and 28/388/3 respectively, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he seems to be on the decline, with his best days almost definitely behind him. Waller has some bounce back potential and could still be a useful weapon for this team, especially given their lack of a top level receiver, but it’s unlikely he’ll bounce back all the way to his best and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining or suffered another injury. 

At the very least though, Waller should be an upgrade over Daniel Bellinger, who averaged 0.83 yards per route run last season and managed just a 30/268/2 slash line in 12 games. Bellinger was also only a rookie last season, selected in the 4th round, so he could take a step forward in his second year in the league in 2023. He’s unlikely to see the same target share (35 targets in 12 games) he had last season with Waller now in town, but he could be a much more efficient pass catcher as the #2 tight end than he was as the starter last season and he’s a solid blocker as well. This receiving corps lacks a true coverage changer or go-to receiver, with the closest thing they have being an aging, injury prone tight end, but this isn’t a bad group and they should be noticeably better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Giants also used a big chunk of their cap space to retain free agent feature back Saquon Barkley, currently on the 1-year, 10.091 million dollar franchise tag and potentially in line to receive a long-term extension before the start of the season. Barkley was a big part of this offense’s success last season, rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns on 295 carries (4.45 YPC), a big boost for this offense after Barkley had previously been limited to 627 yards and 2 touchdowns on 181 carries (3.46 YPC) over the previous two seasons combined, due to injuries that cost him 18 games total and limited him in several others.

Durability remains a concern for Barkley, who also missed 3 games in his second season in the league in 2019 too, but he’s surpassed 4.40 YPC, 200 carries, and 1,000 yards rushing in three of his five seasons in the league, so he’s proven to be a high level runner when healthy, even on an offense that has often lacked talent around him to help give him room to run. He’s also been heavily utilized in the passing game, with 247 catches and 336 targets in 60 career games, but that’s been more out of necessity than anything and he hasn’t been terribly efficient, averaging just 7.37 yards per catch, 5.42 yards per target, and 1.20 yards per route run in his career. Assuming he can stay healthy and can come to an agreement on his contract, Barkley should remain a talented feature back for this offense, but there is some risk of another injury or an extended holdout.

The Giants aren’t well prepared for an extended Barkley absence, with Matt Breida returning as the backup running back for the second straight year, with only 5th round rookie Eric Gray added to the mix this off-season. Breida does have an impressive 4.81 YPC for his career, but he has just 520 carries in 6 seasons in the league, with a career high for 153 carries in a season. A combination of him and the rookie Eric Gray would obviously be a downgrade from Barkley if he were to miss time, but, at the same time, the Giants also don’t have horrible depth either. Barkley being healthy and not holding out is key to this backfield and that’s not a guarantee, but this is still a good backfield overall.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Giants’ offensive line was also a big area of need this off-season, but the Giants didn’t really have enough resources left over to address it in a significant way. They weren’t horrible overall, ranking 24th in team pass block grade on PFF and 14th in team run blocking grade, but that was because the dominant play of left tackle Andrew Thomas elevated this group significantly. Thomas finished the season above 80 on PFF in both run blocking and pass blocking grade and finished 3rd among offensive tackles overall with a 89.1 grade. 

Last season was the best season of Thomas’ career, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as Thomas was the 4th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and has been on an upwards trajectory since entering the league, receiving a 62.4 grade from PFF in 15 starts as a rookie and a 78.9 grade in 13 starts in his second season in the league in 2021, before last year’s career best year. Thomas might not be quite as good again this season, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and should remain one of the top players at his position for years to come, even if he’s not quite as dominant as he was a year ago every season.

In total, the Giants had ten different players make starts for them on the offensive line last season, but, outside of Thomas, only one other player, right guard Mark Glowinski, received a grade higher than 60 on PFF and he was only at 63.3. Glowinski has been a solid starter for most of his career, making 9 or more starts in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and finishing above 60 on PFF in all 6 of those seasons, with a pair of finishes above 70 in 2018 and 2021. However, Glowinski is now heading into his age 31 season and will likely start to decline soon, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a little bit more of a liability than usual this season, even if he still has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter.

Despite the Giants’ problems on the offensive line, the only real addition they made to this group was using a second round pick on Minnesota center John Michael Schmitz, who is a heavy favorite to start at center as a rookie, replacing free agent departure Jon Feliciano, who had a 58.2 grade in 15 starts. Schmitz profiles as a solid starter long-term, but could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie. However, the only other true center on this team is JC Hassenhauer, a career backup (7 starts since going undrafted in 2018) who will almost definitely remain a backup, so Schmitz has a pretty clear path to a starting role in year one.

Aside from starting the rookie Schmitz or career backup Hassenhauer, the only other option the Giants have at center is moving one of their guards inside, but none of them have any real experience at the position and left guard is a position of weakness itself. Ben Bredeson made a team leading 8 starts at left guard last season, but finished with just a 56.7 PFF grade and the 2020 4th round pick hasn’t been better than that in the past, playing just 342 total snaps in his first two seasons combined in the league prior to 2022 and finishing below 60 on PFF in both seasons. He may still have some untapped potential, but it’s more likely that he remains a backup caliber player going forward. 

Bredeson will face competition from Joshua Ezeudu, a 2022 3rd round pick who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 290 rookie year snaps but who could be better in year two, Marcus McKethan, a 2022 5th round pick who missed his entire rookie season with injury, and Shane Lemieux, a 2020 5th round pick who received a 32.2 PFF grade in 9 starts as a rookie and who has since been limited to just 56 total snaps in two seasons due to injuries. Left guard will almost definitely remain a position of weakness for this team in 2023, while center could as well if Schmitz can’t be a starting caliber player right away in year one.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness for the Giants in 2022, but they are hoping for a lot more out of 2022 7th overall pick Evan Neal, who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.1 PFF grade in 14 starts, but who still has the potential to develop into an above average starter long-term. I would expect him to take a big leap forward in year two and, while that big leap might only make him a capable starter, that would still be a boost for this offensive line. Even after a rough rookie year, he is still a better option for the Giants than swing tackle candidates Tyre Phillips, a 2020 3rd round pick who has finished below average in all three seasons in the league (18 starts), and Matt Peart, another 2020 3rd round pick, who has just 6 career starts. This offensive line still figures to have problems this season, but they could be better than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Giants also had problems on defense last season. They had some standout players, with several starters having above average seasons, but they also had their weaknesses, they lacked depth, and they had a lot of injuries, with the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league. They should be healthier this season, but they didn’t add a lot on this side of the ball this off-season, so they still figure to have some problems. 

The interior defender position is a great example, as they had a pair of above average starters, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, who received grades of 92.0 and 77.9 respectively from PFF, but Williams missed 5 games with injury and their depth was horrible, with Justin Ellis (362 snaps), Nick Williams (227 snaps), Henry Mondeaux (249 snaps), and Ryder Anderson (152 snaps) finishing with grades of 31.3, 59.9, 29.7, and 43.0 respectively from PFF.

The Giants did at least try to upgrade their depth at this position, letting all of the aforementioned players leave this off-season except Anderson, who is not a lock for the final roster, and adding veterans A’Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and Vernon Butler in free agency. The Giants could also give more playing time to 2022 5th round pick DJ Davidson, though he struggled mightily in his very limited (43 snaps) rookie year action.

Robinson is probably the best of the bunch. He’s never been much of a pass rusher with a 5.4% pressure rate for his career and a combination of injuries and his lack of pass rush ability have limited him to just 988 snaps in 35 games over the past three seasons combined, but he’s still only in his age 28 season and has finished above 60 on PFF against the run in all but one of his seven seasons in the league, so he should at least be a solid early down run defender for this team.

Nunez-Roches struggles even more as a pass rusher, with a career 4.1% pressure rate and he’s not nearly good enough against the run to make up for it, leading to him finishing below 60 overall on PFF in five of his eight seasons in the league, while averaging just 311 snaps per season with a career high of 548, which came last season when he had a 56.2 overall PFF grade and a 3.2% pressure rate. Now going into his age 30 season, I wouldn’t expect anything more out of him this season and he could easily decline and struggle even more.

Butler, meanwhile, is a former first round pick and flashed potential early in his career, but he’s never played more than 440 snaps in a season in 7 seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 on PFF in five straight seasons since his promising start, including a 34.5 PFF grade on 285 snaps in 2021, before only seeing 12 snaps all season in 2022. The Giants’ depth options at the interior defender position are probably by default better than a year ago, but they still would be in a lot of trouble at the position if one of their top-2, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, ends up missing time with injury again. 

The Giants will be hoping that doesn’t happen again, but injuries are part of the game and chances aren’t high that both players will play all 17 games. While they are on the field though, they should be one of the best interior defender duos in the league. Lawrence was the better of the two last season and he was better than basically any other interior defender in the league, ranking tied for 1st among interior defenders on PFF in overall grade, playing the run at a high level, but also adding 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate. 

It was a career best year for Lawrence, but it didn’t come totally out of nowhere, as Lawrence was a first round pick in 2019 and played at an above average level throughout his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, receiving overall grades of 76.2, 79.7, and 68.6 from PFF on snap counts of 701, 655, and 759 respectively, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 22 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate in 48 games even before last year’s breakout season. 

Lawrence might not be quite as good again in 2023, just because it’s hard for anyone to play at that level for two straight years, but it’s clear he is going to be one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, still very much in his prime in his age 26 season. The Giants had to pay up to keep Lawrence long-term, extending him on a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the 4th highest paid interior defender in the league, but barring an unexpected catastrophic injury he figures to be worth every penny of that contract.

Williams is also a former first round pick, going 6th overall in 2015, and he’s been an above average starter ever since entering the league, surpassing 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league. A well-rounded and durable player, Williams has played 124 of 130 possible games in his career, with an average of 52.2 snaps per game, and he has received an above average grade from PFF for both his run defense and his pass rush in every season in the league. He’s also highly paid in the final year of a 3-year, 63 million dollar contract, which makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary.

Williams doesn’t have a huge career sack total, with 38 in 124 career games, but he has great peripheral pass rush numbers, adding 129 hits and a 10.0% pressure rate to that sack total and is more or less worth his contract, given how good of an overall playoff he is. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Williams again in 2023. He and Lawrence are one of the best interior defender duos in the league and their depth is marginally better than a year ago, but they still would be in a lot of trouble if one of their top-2 missed significant time with injury. 

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Giants had an even worse depth/injury situation at the edge defender position last year and, unlike at the interior defender position, they didn’t have an elite top duo. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux had an impressive first season in the league, receiving a 71.9 PFF grade on 740 snaps, but he missed 3 games with injury and their second best edge defender Azeez Ojulari (62.4 PFF grade) missed 10 games and was limited to 230 snaps, which opened up playing time for Oshane Ximines (506 snaps), Jihad Ward (657 snaps), and Tomon Fox (320 snaps), who all struggled mightily, with PFF grades of 58.3, 43.7, and 40.1 respectively. 

Unlike the interior defender position, the Giants didn’t make any real additions to this group this off-season and instead will just be hoping their starters can stay healthier, but, even if they can, this is still a position that could have been upgraded this off-season. Thibodeaux has a big upside and could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if Azeez Olujari can stay healthy, he might not be anything more than a marginal player, which he has been thus far in the NFL. 

Olujari was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has the upside to be more than he’s been, but he had just a 58.3 PFF grade on 781 snaps as a rookie, totaling 8 sacks, but adding just 7 hits and a 9.3% pressure rate, before his middling performance last season in limited action, when he improved a little as a pass rusher, but struggled as a run defender. Olujari could take a step forward in year three if he can stay healthy, but that’s not a guarantee and he could remain more of a snap eater than anything.

Ximines and Ward are still on the team and figure to continue having roles, even though they are likely to continue struggling. Ximines was a third round pick in 2019 and was decent with a 60.8 PFF grade on 502 snaps as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 293 snaps in 14 games in his next two seasons, prior to last year’s underwhelming campaign. Now going into his age 27 season, it’s unlikely Ximines has much if any untapped upside left and, even if he can continue staying healthy, he should be marginal at best. Ward, meanwhile, was a second round pick back in 2015, but despite going into his 9th season in the league, he hasn’t really lived up to that, finishing below 60 on PFF in 6 of 8 seasons in the league, on an average of 336 snaps per season. I wouldn’t expect anything more from him in 2023.

The Giants also still have Tomon Fox, but the 2022 undrafted free agent shouldn’t be anything more than a deep reserve, even if he makes the final roster. Elerson Smith was a 4th round pick in 2021, but he has only played 121 snaps thus far in his career and might have trouble even beating out Fox for a final roster spot. Without any major additions to a group that was below average as a whole last season, the Giants are hoping for better health and potentially better play out of their top-2 edge defenders, who are a pair of recent high draft picks. There is upside here, but I wouldn’t expect above average overall play.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Linebacker was also a position of need for the Giants this off-season, as their top-3 linebackers a year ago in terms of snaps played were Jaylon Smith (626 snaps), Tae Crowder (445 snaps), and Micah McFadden (435 snaps) who received grades of 56.0, 29.6, and 38.7 respectively from PFF. The Giants did make one notable addition at the position, signing former Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke to a contract worth 40 million over 4 years in free agency, a move that could prove to be worth it, with Okereke coming off of a season in which he was PFF’s 21st ranked off ball linebacker with a 73.3 grade on 970 snaps. 

Okereke is a one-year wonder playing at that level in an every down role though, flashing with a 78.4 PFF grade on 472 snaps as a rookie in 2019, but falling to 49.6 on 685 snaps in 2020 and 58.5 on 1,072 snaps in 2021, before his big contract year in 2022. Okereke was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player, very much in his prime in his age 27 season, but he’s also a candidate to regress and might find it hard to repeat by far the best season of his career for the second straight season. Still, he figures to be a noticeable upgrade on what the Giants had at linebacker last season and he can play every down, which none of the Giants’ linebackers a year ago did.

Unfortunately, the Giants still have a big hole at the other linebacker spot next to Okereke, not making any other significant additions to this group this off-season. With Tae Crowder and Jaylon Smith gone, Micah McFadden is their top holdover from a year ago and the 2022 5th round pick could take a step forward in his second season in the league and play at a higher level in a larger role, but that’s far from a guarantee, considering how much he struggled in year one and how far he has to go to even be a competent linebacker, especially if they plan on using him in more of an every down capacity. 

They may need McFadden to play close to an every down role though, as their other candidates for playing time next to Okereke are 2022 6th round pick Darrian Beavers, who didn’t play a snap on defense as a rookie, 2020 7th round pick Carter Coughlin, who has struggled mightily on 239 career snaps, 2020 6th round pick Cam Brown, who has also struggled on 109 career snaps, and veteran Jarrad Davis, who is an underwhelming option, but, by default might be their best competition for McFadden, even though the 6-year veteran has played just 517 snaps per season in his career, while finishing below 60 on PFF in 4 of 6 seasons. The addition of Bobby Okereke in free agency helps this group, but the rest of the bunch figures to continue struggling mightily, barring an unexpected breakout year from an inexperienced and unproven young player.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Giants also had a lot of injuries at the cornerback position last season. Adoree Jackson and Aaron Robinson were starters in week one, but were limited to 10 games and 2 games respectively due to injury, leading to Darnay Holmes and Fabian Moreau, expected to their #3 and #4 cornerbacks, instead being their top cornerbacks in terms of snaps with 572 and 749, which proved to be a big problem for this team, with Holmes and Moreau receiving grades of 43.7 and 53.8 respectively from PFF. 

Holmes is still on the team, but Moreau is gone and Holmes is unlikely to continue seeing a significant role. Not only will Robinson and Jackson likely be healthier, but the Giants also used their first round pick on Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks, who has a good chance to start as a rookie alongside Jackson and potentially Robinson. The Giants also added Old Dominion cornerback Tre Hawkins in the 6th round of the draft, took a flier on veteran Amani Oruwariye, and they could give a bigger role to 2022 3rd round pick Cordale Flott, who was decent with a 65.8 PFF grade on 335 snaps as a rookie and who could push to start over Banks or Robinson in his second season in the league.

Jackson is locked in as a starter and the #1 cornerback as long as he’s healthy, although durability has been a consistent problem for him in his career, costing him 29 games in 6 seasons in the league since going in the first round in 2017. When healthy though, Jackson has mostly shown why he was a high draft pick, receiving a grade higher than 70 from PFF in 5 of 6 seasons in the league, including a 72.2 grade last season. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, but unfortunately more of the same will likely include more time missed with injury, having missed at least 4 games in each of the past four seasons. It’s a good thing the Giants have at least fortified their depth at this position this off-season in case of another Jackson injury.

Aaron Robinson, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Giants in 2021 and looked on his way towards being a starter in 2022, but that was before the injury and he still really hasn’t played much in his career, seeing just 268 defensive snaps in 9 games as a rookie, so he’s probably not locked into a starting role with the rookie Banks being added and and Flott looking ready for a larger role. Robinson has flashed potential in his very limited action though and, still only in his age 25 season, he still has upside if he can stay healthy in his third season in the league, so he could easily end up as a week one starter again. 

With a top-4 of Jackson, Banks, Robinson, and Flott in some order, that only leaves deep reserve roles available at most for Darnay Holmes, a 2020 4th round pick who has finished below average on PFF in all three seasons in the league on an average of 432 snaps per season, Amani Oruwariye, who has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, including a 30.0 PFF grade on 474 snaps in 2022, and the rookie Tre Hawkins, who, by virtue of his status as a late round draft pick, seems unlikely to be able to make a significant impact in year one. This is a much deeper cornerback group than a year ago and they should be healthier as well.

The Giants did lose free agent safety Julian Love this off-season though, a big loss as he finished with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,006 snaps last season. Fortunately, the Giants did sign Bobby McCain to replace him, who shouldn’t be too much of a downgrade. McCain has finished above 60 on PFF in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, including 62.1, 70.9, and 61.4 grades on PFF on snap counts of 923, 1,031, and 970 over the past three seasons respectively. The only concern with him is that he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him and I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good as Love, but he’s not totally over the hill so he could easily remain at least a capable starter.

The Giants are also likely to get more out of fellow starting safety Xavier McKinney, who missed 8 games with injury last season. McKinney finished with a 57.8 PFF grade on 554 snaps, but he earned grades of 70.0 and 75.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and he was a 2nd round pick back in 2020, so he should bounce back in 2023 assuming he’s healthy, which would be a big boost for this secondary. Durability remains a concern, as he also missed 10 games as a rookie, limiting him to 211 snaps total, but he did make all 17 starts and play 1,134 snaps in 2021 and, only going into his age 24 season, he has the potential to be even better going forward and he could easily be an above average safety for years to come if he can consistently stay healthy.

In McKinney’s absence last season, Dane Belton (290 snaps) and Jason Pinnock (459 snaps) were forced into larger roles and they figure to be their top reserves again this season, along with Nick McCloud, a hybrid cornerback/safety who played 537 snaps between the two positions in 2022. Belton struggled mightily with a 30.6 grade in his limited role, but the 2022 4th round pick might be better in year two, while Pinnock and McCloud actually played pretty well, with grades of 61.3 and 67.0 respectively. 

Pinnock was a 5th round pick in 2021 by the Jets and while he didn’t make the Jets’ final roster in year two, that was despite a 70.4 PFF grade on 202 rookie year snaps and he flashed that potential again in year two. McCloud, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2021 and only played 14 rookie year snaps, but could remain a solid reserve going forward, as could Pinnock, so the Giants have pretty good depth behind McKinney and McCain, who are also a solid safety duo. This secondary looks much improved from a year ago, when depth was suspect and was exposed by injuries to several key players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Giants went 9-7-1 a year ago and got better this off-season, but they’re not as good as that suggests, as they had a -6 point differential and ranked just 21st in DVOA, meaning they’re improved from a lower base point than their record suggests. However, they have a pretty solid roster overall and, in the weak NFC, they have a pretty good shot to a wild card spot. They might not win more games than a year ago, or at least not significantly more so, but they’ll probably be a better team, especially if they can stay healthier on defense. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC East

Miami Dolphins 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterback

No team has a wider range of outcomes at the quarterback position than Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa came into the league with a lot of upside as the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he was pretty underwhelming across his first two seasons in the league, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions (88.8 QB rating) in 21 starts, receiving season-long grades of 65.4 and 68.3 from PFF, and on multiple occasions getting injured or getting benched for a veteran mid-game.

However, going into his third season in the league in 2022, Tagovailoa got a much needed change of coaching on offense, with former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel becoming the new head coach and implementing a Shanahan style scheme, and he got much needed improvements in his supporting cast, which led to Tagovailoa being one of the best quarterbacks in the league to start last season. Through week 12, Tagovailoa completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 9.03 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (115.7 QB rating) and he had a 91.1 PFF grade, while winning all eight games in which he started and finished, with another two and a half games lost to injury. 

Unfortunately, that’s where Tagovailoa’s story takes another turn as, after that hot start, he cooled down very quickly, completing just 52.6% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (80.5 QB rating) with a 52.1 PFF grade in his final 4 starts, all of which were losses. Making matters worse, Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the season in week 16, which not only ended his year for good after costing him some time earlier in the season, but also puts his long-term future in doubt, as another significant concussion could be career-threatening or career-ending. 

Heading into the off-season, a key one in which the Dolphins had to make a decision on guaranteeing Tagovailoa’s 23.171 million dollar option for 2024, it was tough to know what to make of Tagovailoa’s long-term projection, as he produced at an MVP level for the first half of last season, but has otherwise been mediocre as a starter and his high level of production last season might have been more because of the system and talent around him, rather than him legitimately playing like an elite quarterback, and now with that the league has caught on to the Dolphins’ scheme a little bit, Tagovailoa may continue to struggle. On top of that, there is also the long-term injury risk. 

The Dolphins picked up the option, unwilling to effectively give up on Tagovailoa by declining it, but they haven’t committed to a long-term extension with him yet, with Tagovailoa set to hit free agency after 2024. Tagovailoa legitimately has the potential to be among the top quarterbacks and MVP candidates this season if he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, but he also just as easily could get hurt, and, even if he manages to stay healthy, he could continue to struggle like he did in the second half of last season and for much of the first two seasons of his career. 

The Dolphins have continued to aggressively build this roster this off-season, ranking 8th in average annual value of the contracts on their roster, a stat that correlates heavily with winning, so if Tagovailoa plays close to the high end of his range of projections, the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and if he struggles or gets hurt, he would be holding a talented team back from reaching its goals. The uncertainty at this position makes the Dolphins a tough team to project this season, but their upside is as high as any team in the league.

With Tagovailoa’s performance and durability being question marks, the backup quarterback position takes on more importance. Last season, reserves Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson threw 184 passes and made four starts, completing 59.2% of those passes for 6.61 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions (72.2 QB rating), which isn’t horrible production, but they were aided by the scheme and talent around them and the Dolphins went just 1-4 in the five games in which Bridgewater and/or Thompson played all or most of the game, as opposed to 8-4 in games in which Tagovailoa played most of the game. 

The Dolphins let Bridgewater walk this off-season and, unwilling to commit to 2022 7th round pick Skylar Thompson as the primary backup, they replaced Bridgewater with another veteran, former Jets quarterback Mike White, who gets paid towards the higher end of the price range for backup quarterbacks on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. White was a 5th round pick in 2018 by the Cowboys, but never threw a regular season pass until 2021 with the Jets, with whom he made seven starts over the past two seasons and completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (75.4 QB rating). He’s a solid backup and the Dolphins are talented enough around him that they could survive him starting for an extended period of time, but they will need Tagovailoa to stay relatively healthy and play at close to his highest level for this team to legitimately compete at the highest level. It’s one of the most unpredictable situations in the NFL.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest thing the Dolphins did to upgrade their supporting cast last off-season was acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill came at a steep price, costing the Dolphins a first and second round pick, as well as an extension that would set Hill up to make 95.865 million over the next four seasons, but, along with Jaylen Waddle, who the Dolphins added the off-season before with the 6th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dolphins had the best wide receiver duo in the league last season. Hill and Waddle were just one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving last season and they were the only duo to both surpass 1200 yards receiving, doing so by a pretty wide margin, taking 170 targets and 117 targets respectively for slash lines of 119/1710/7 and 75/1356/8 respectively, ranking them second and seventh respectively in the NFL in terms of receiving yardage.

Those slash lines and target totals come out to an average completion percentage of 67.6%, an average of 10.7 yards per target, and 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when targeted, good for a QB rating of 108.7 when targeted, almost 14 points above their team average. They accounted for 51.1% of their team’s targets and a whopping 64.3% of their team’s receiving yardage. In terms of yards per route run, Hill and Waddle ranked 1st and 3rd respectively among wide receivers at 3.20 and 2.59, and in PFF grade they ranked 1st and 10th respectively at 92.1 and 83.9. For both players, it was a career best year in terms of receiving yards, but there is reason to believe they can at least come close to repeating last year’s performance again in 2023. 

Hill is still in his prime in his age 29 season and had averaged a 95/1368/11 slash line per 17 games in his five seasons in Kansas City prior to joining the Dolphins last off-season, exceeding 80 on PFF in all five seasons, while Waddle is still only going into his third season in the league and has shown the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league even dating back to his rookie season, when his 78.3 PFF grade, 104/1015/6 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run average were all impressive for a rookie who was playing on an overall underwhelming offense. 

Waddle and Hill are both among the best wide receivers in the league and, even if they aren’t quite as good as a year ago, they still have a good chance to remain the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, as the gap between them and the rest of the league was pretty big last season. With Hill and Waddle as their top-two, there wasn’t much need for other targets in this passing game, but the Dolphins did have an underwhelming receiving corps behind them last season, which would have been a problem had either one of Hill or Waddle suffered a significant injury, and their depth doesn’t seem much better this season, so that remains a concern.

Trent Sherfield and Mike Gesicki averaged just 1.04 yards per route and 1.02 yards per route run as the #3 wide receiver and top receiving tight end respectively last season and are no longer with the team. Slot specialist Braxton Berrios was signed to replace Sherfield and the Dolphins took a flier on veteran Robbie Anderson as well, while Cedrick Wilson, who they signed to a 3-year, 22.05 million dollar deal last off-season, could have a better year in year two with the Dolphins, after falling down the depth chart and playing just 237 snaps last season. 

Berrios averaged just 0.81 yards per route run last season, but that was on a horrendous Jets passing game and he had averaged 1.84 yards per route run as a slot specialist across his three prior seasons, so he has some bounce back potential, only in his age 28 season. Wilson does as well, as he is also in his age 28 season and averaged 1.56 yards per route run in four seasons with the Cowboys, prior to joining the Dolphins and averaging just 0.99 yards per route run last season. He was mostly a rotational player and spot starter in Dallas, so he’s not a proven starter, but the Dolphins don’t really need much more than that from him. 

Anderson also could have some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season and you have to go back to 2020 for his last good season, as his average has dropped from 1.66 yards per route run over his first five seasons in the league to 0.84 over the past two seasons. The Dolphins don’t have bad reserve options behind Waddle and Hill, but they’re an underwhelming bunch, so the Dolphins will obviously need Waddle and Hill to continue staying healthy and being the focal point of this offense.

At tight end, the Dolphins didn’t really replace Gesicki and figure to just de-emphasize the tight end position even more in this offense, after targeting the position just 72 times last season (12.3% of their pass attempts), even with Gesicki being a proven receiver who was coming off back-to-back seasons of 700+ receiving yards. Durham Smythe, who played 557 snaps last season as mostly a blocker (0.81 yards per route run, 15/129/1 slash line), will probably play a bigger role this season, but probably still won’t see much of an uptick in receiving production, with a career 1.04 yards per route run average in five seasons since being selected in the 4th round by the Dolphins in 2018. 

The Dolphins also signed veterans Eric Saubert and Tyler Kroft this off-season, but they are just blocking specialists (0.71 yards per route run and 0.95 yards per route run in their careers) and played 395 snaps and 238 snaps respectively last season, so neither figures to contribute much in the passing game either. This offense will continue to run through Waddle and Hill, who are the best wide receiver duo in the league and obviously elevate this group by a massive amount, but will need to both stay healthy for this offense to have a chance to be a top level unit.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another big way in which the Dolphins supporting cast was better in 2022 than 2021 was on the offensive line, which was previously a weakness for years. The single biggest difference was the addition of former Saints left tackle Terron Armstead on a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal in free agency. It was a risky contract to give Armstead, as he was on the wrong side of 30 and had an alarming injury history, missing at least one game in all nine seasons in New Orleans, with 48 games missed total. 

However, Armstead also finished above 70 on PFF in eight of those nine seasons, with five seasons over 80, and his high level play continued into his first season in Miami, as he finished with a 77.5 PFF grade. Armstead still missed another four games with injury and now heads into his age 32 season, so he figures to miss more time at some point this season and could easily decline in a noticeable way, but he still has a good chance to be an above average starter even if he’s not at his best and, as long as he plays close to the full season, he should be an asset to this offensive line again, even if it’s not to the extent he was last season.

The Dolphins also signed former Cowboys center Connor Williams to a 2-year, 14.035 million dollar deal last off-season and that paid off in a big way as he made 17 starts and received a 78.4 grade from PFF. It was a career best year for Williams, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2018 2nd round pick also received a 71.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2020 and a 76.1 grade in 14 starts in 2021. In those two seasons he primarily played left guard and his versatility just makes him even more valuable to this offensive line. Still going into his age 26 season, I would expect Williams to continue playing around the same level and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he matched or even slightly exceeded his career best performance from 2022.

Another free agent addition that ended up being important was right tackle Brandon Shell, even though he didn’t even come to the Dolphins until he was signed off the practice squad early in the season, when incumbent right tackle Austin Jackson got injured. Shell made his first start in week 6 and finished the season with a 64.9 grade in 12 starts. That’s unspectacular, but the Dolphins had gotten poor play at right tackle for years prior to last season and at first it looked like last season would be more of the same, with Jackson and his initial replacement Greg Little both struggling, finishing the season with PFF grades of 57.9 and 34.6 respectively. 

Shell wasn’t retained this off-season and Jackson looks like the favorite to get his job back, which is a concern, as Jackson has struggled throughout his career, receiving PFF grades of 52.5 and 49.9 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, in a total of 28 starts, but Jackson is a former first round pick who is only going into his age 24 season, so he could take a step forward and be more of a capable starter in year four and, if not, the Dolphins do have other options, signing veterans Isaiah Wynn and Cedric Ogbuehi in free agency this off-season. Wynn seems like their best option at the position. He had a just 54.6 PFF grade in seven starts with the Patriots in 2022, but he was a first round pick in 2018 and he was a lot better with grades of 69.9, 82.6, and 74.9 in 2019, 2020, and 2021. 

Injuries have always been a problem for Wynn, costing him 39 games in five seasons in the league, and they may have sapped his abilities a little bit, leading to him having a down year in his contract year last season, which limited him to 2.3 million on a 1-year deal in free agency from Miami, a steep decrease from the 10.413 million he made on the 5th year option of his first round rookie deal last season, but Wynn does have some bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, only in his age 27 season, and he could prove to be a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal. 

Wynn also gives the Dolphins versatility with his ability to play guard, so, even if he’s just a reserve to start the season, he could prove to be valuable for the Dolphins one way or another.

Ogbuehi is also a former first round pick, but he’s mostly been a middling reserve in his career, with just 35 career starts since being selected in the first round in 2015, with just 10 of those coming in the past five seasons, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not as intriguing of an option as Wynn and might not even be a guarantee to make the final roster.

Another reason for this offensive line’s improvement last season was right guard Robert Hunt having the best year of his career, finishing with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. That didn’t come out of nowhere for Hunt either, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received grades of 66.0 and 67.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, across a total of 28 starts. Still only in his age 27 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he repeated his career best 2022 season again in 2023.

Left guard was a weakness for a lot of last season, with second year player Liam Eichenberg making 10 starts and finishing with a horrendous 39.8 PFF grade, but he was replaced in the lineup by 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones when Eichenberg was hurt and Jones proved to be an upgrade, receiving a 62.0 grade in 7 starts. Jones is still pretty unproven as a former undrafted free agent who only played 79 snaps in his rookie season prior to his extended stint as a spot starter last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to keep the starting job, even if he’s an underwhelming option.

Eichenberg probably has a higher upside, as a 2nd round pick in 2021, but he struggled in 16 starts as a rookie as well and he has a long way to go to even be a middling starter. Right tackle and left guard are questionable positions and left tackle Terron Armstead is an aging injury risk, but Armstead, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams give the Dolphins a trio of high level starters when they’re healthy and the Dolphins don’t have bad depth on the offensive line either.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Dolphins didn’t make any splash additions at the running back position last off-season, but they did get a good year out of free agent signing Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 891 yards and 3 touchdowns on 181 carries, giving him 4.92 YPC and a 55% carry success rate that was 9th best among eligible running backs. That’s nothing new for Mostert, who has a career 5.38 YPC average, mostly in the Shanahan style offense that the Dolphins run. What was new was him staying healthy for most of the season, playing in 16 of 17 games, after missing 36 of a possible 81 in the previous five seasons, with his career high carries in a season being 137 and just 465 total carries in eight seasons in the league. 

Mostert now heads into his age 31 season and could decline and/or get injured, but he’s not the only former 49ers running back the Dolphins added last season, trading for Jeff Wilson mid-season and giving him 84 carries in the final 8 games of the season, which he took for 4.67 YPC and 3 touchdowns, while finishing the season 20th in carry success rate out of 42 eligible running backs at 51%. Wilson’s addition was especially big for this offense because it coincided with the Dolphins trading away Chase Edmonds, who was a poor fit in this offense and averaged just 2.86 YPC on 42 carries in eight games. 

Wilson’s performance last season was also nothing new for him, as he has averaged 4.48 YPC on 474 carries in five seasons in the league, but he’s also an injury concern, as last season he set career highs with 16 games played and 176 carries in a season, with his previous highs being 12 games played and 126 carries. After Wilson joined the Dolphins, he and Mostert had a 84/80 carry split in the final eight games of the season, helping keeping each other fresh, and the Dolphins added further depth to this backfield when they added Texas A&M’s De’Von Achane in the third round of the draft. He might not start as a rookie, but figures to have at least a rotational role with Mostert and Wilson and, given the injury history of those two, Achane starting at some point next season is definitely a possibility. 

The Dolphins don’t throw to running backs that much, with their passing game heavily focused around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Raheem Mostert did see 42 targets as the primary passing down back. He wasn’t very efficient with those targets though, taking them for a 31/202/2 slash line (4.81 yards per target) and averaging just 0.69 yards per route run, but he has a 1.25 yards per route run average in his career aside from last season and his poor yards per route run average last season was in part due to the Dolphins not using their running backs in the passing game much.

Wilson also didn’t do much in the passing game last season, taking 24 targets for just 12 catches for 94 yards (3.92 yards per target) and a touchdown in 8 games, while averaging 0.73 yards per route run, but that’s nothing new for him, as he’s averaged just 0.83 yards per route run in his career. Wilson figures to see a pretty minimal passing game role again in 2023, with Mostert as the primary passing down back again and Achane also having pass catching upside, after catching 60 passes across his final two seasons in college. The Dolphins also still have Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin on this roster and, at times, they have been lead backs for this team in the past, but they’re both very underwhelming options who are not guaranteed to make the final roster, after 2022 campaigns in which they saw just 13 and 14 touches respectively. 

Ahmed has been in the league for three seasons, but the former undrafted free agent has averaged just 3.77 yards per carry and 1.02 yards per route run, while seeing just 165 total touches in his career, while Gaskin is somewhat more experienced with 462 career touches and he has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he also has just a 3.75 yards per carry average in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2019. They’re not roster locks in a backfield that is much deeper than it has been in recent years, even if it lacks a true lead back or a good passing down option.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As they have done with their supporting cast on offense, the Dolphins have been aggressive adding talent on defense in recent years. During last season, they traded away a first round pick to the Denver Broncos for Bradley Chubb, who had an expiring contract and received a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension from the Dolphins upon arriving in Miami, making him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary. 

In his first half season with the team, Chubb wasn’t really worth what the Dolphins gave up for him in terms of financial resources and draft capital, as his pass rush numbers were middling (2.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate) and his run defense was subpar. Chubb was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and has shown stretches of being a high level pass rusher, but he has missed 25 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, his total pass rush numbers are good, but not what you would expect from a high level edge defender (28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games), and his run defense has consistently been a problem, limiting him to a career high season-long grade from PFF of just 70.7 overall. 

However, even if the Dolphins probably did overpay, Chubb should be an asset for this team and I would expect his performance in his second season in Miami to be better than his underwhelming first half season with the team. Chubb didn’t get to play much with Emmanuel Ogbah, who was the Dolphins’ sacks leader in 2021 with nine, but who was limited to just 326 snaps in nine games by injury in 2022, overlapping with Chubb for just two games. Ogbah also struggled even when on the field in 2022, finishing the season with a 52.1 PFF grade, with just 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. 

That performance last season is a concern with Ogbah now heading into his age 30 season, but, even if his best days are behind him, Ogbah isn’t totally over the hill yet and could at least bounce back somewhat from last year’s down year, after totaling 23.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 43 games in his previous three seasons prior to last season, with a PFF grade over 65 in all three seasons, including a career best 77.0 as recently as 2021. Ogbah and Chubb should both give the Dolphins more than they did a year ago, even if they’re not at their best.

Even if Chubb and Ogbah give them more than a year ago, the Dolphins best edge defender should still be Jaelan Phillips, who played 838 snaps and finished with a 87.7 PFF grade a year ago. Phillips was the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and had 8.5 sacks as a rookie, but his peripheral pass rush stats were underwhelming, with 8 hits and a 9.7% pressure rate, while his run defense was horrendous, leading to Phillips finishing below average with an overall 53.7 grade from PFF. 

In 2022, Phillips’ sack total was actually slightly less (7), but his peripheral pass rush stats were a lot better, adding 19 sacks and a 14.6% pressure rate, while drastically improving against the run, leading to his overall high grade, finishing 6th among edge defenders in PFF grade. Phillips is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not play quite as well in 2023, but, even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain a well above average overall player and he has the upside to continue being one of the top players at his league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good as he was a year ago.

The Dolphins also have Andrew Van Ginkel, who played 333 snaps a year ago, and free agent acquisition Malik Reed as reserve options. Both are primarily base package players who are better against the run than they are as pass rushers. Van Ginkel is a good all-around reserve though, with a career 11.1% pressure rate and three straight seasons above 70 on PFF, doing so despite playing bigger snap counts (479 snaps and 801 snaps) in the previous two seasons prior to 2022. Reed, meanwhile, has exceeded 65 in run defense in three of four seasons in the league, on an average of 597 total snaps per season, but he has just a 7.2% career pressure rate. Van Ginkel and Reed provide even more depth at a very deep position group, led by a trio of players who could all be above average edge rushers this season.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins don’t have the same kind of depth at the interior defender position as they do on the edge, but they can use their depth on the edge to offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat, lining up an edge defender on the interior in sub packages as a pass rush specialist somewhat regularly, and the Dolphins at least have a high level every down starting duo at the interior defender position, with Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler coming off seasons in which they finished with PFF grades of 85.1 and 74.7 respectively and saw snap counts of 952 snaps and 847 snaps respectively.

Both players have performed at that level before. Wilkins was a first round pick in 2019 who broke out with a 83.8 PFF grade on 734 snaps in 2021, after PFF grades of 64.4 and 68.9 on snap counts of 730 and 637 in his first two seasons in the league, while Sieler was only a 7th round choice in 2018, but received 76.2, 69.3, and 84.9 grades from PFF on snap counts of 118, 532, and 518 in the three seasons prior to last season in the 2019-2021 seasons respectively. With both going into their age 28 seasons, I would expect more of the same. Both are at their best against the run, but they also added 7 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.5% pressure rate between the two of them last season, so they were pretty well-rounded players.

Raekwon Davis was their top interior defender aside from Wilkins and Sieler in 2022 and he struggled mightily with a 43.4 PFF grade on 583 snaps. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but also struggled mightily with a 36.5 PFF grade on 424 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season as well, prior to struggling last season. He was a solid run defender as a rookie, but his run defense has dropped off significantly in the past two seasons and he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.3% pressure rate for his career. Davis is still young, in his age 26 season, and could still have bounce back potential, but his best case scenario most likely is being just a decent base package run defender and he could easily continue struggling.

Davis will have to be their primary reserve though, because the Dolphins simply lack another good option at the position. Aside from Wilkins, Sieler, and Davis, the Dolphins also have 2021 6th round pick Jaylen Twyman, who has never played a defensive snap, 2021 undrafted free agent Josiah Bronson, who has played 168 mediocre snaps in his career, as well as a trio of undrafted rookies, none of whom are locks to make this final roster. This is a very thin group behind Wilkins and Sieler, but Wilkins and Sieler are at least an above average every down starting duo and the Dolphins could somewhat mask their lack of depth on the interior with their depth on the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins didn’t add as much to this defense this off-season as they have in previous recent off-seasons, but they did make a couple key moves, one of which being the addition of linebacker David Long from the Titans on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. Long has received grades of 67.4 and 76.2 from PFF over the past two seasons as an every down player, averaging 62.5 snaps played per game, and he is still only going into his age 27 season, but durability is a concern, as he’s missed 12 games total over the past two seasons and has missed at least one game in all four seasons in the league, since being selected in the 6th round by the Titans in 2019. 

When he’s on the field, Long should be an upgrade on incumbent Elandon Roberts, who received a 57.1 PFF grade last season, and he should play more of an every down role too, with Roberts playing just 39.8 snaps per game in 17 games last season, but Long is much more of an injury risk and is likely to miss at least some time with injury again. Duke Riley played 364 snaps as the top reserve a year ago and, while he probably won’t have much of a role as long as Long is healthy, he could easily find himself having to make start in Long’s absence, assuming Riley can beat out 2022 3rd round pick Channing Tindall for the top reserve role, not a guarantee even though Tindall played just 10 snaps as a rookie, as Tindall still does have a significant upside long-term. Riley, meanwhile, finished last season with a 59.1 PFF grade and has been below 60 in four of six seasons in the league, so there’s room for improvement on him, even as a reserve.

Jerome Baker, meanwhile, will remain the other every down linebacker next to David Long and he should be a more reliable option in terms of durability, playing 81 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, while averaging 60.4 snaps per game over the past four seasons. The problem with Baker is he has been pretty inconsistent in his career. He finished last season with a 78.0 PFF grade on 1,010 snaps and he has another season with a PFF grade of 70+ on his resume, but it was only a 70.7 PFF grade and it came back in his rookie season in 2018, while his other three season-long grades were 46.7, 55.2, and 60.9. 

Baker is still young and in his prime, only in his age 27 season, but it’s hard to imagine him being consistent enough to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023 and there’s a good chance he declines significantly from a year ago. Fortunately, the addition of David Long should offset Baker’s likely decline, at least somewhat, and Baker and Long are still a solid starting duo, with decent depth behind them, so this is a pretty solid position group, even if Baker doesn’t end up being as good as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The biggest addition the Dolphins made this off-season was trading a third round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long to the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, who they signed to a new 3-year, 55 million dollar deal upon arrival. The 5th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Ramsey has been one of the top cornerbacks in the league since being drafted, starting 107 of 108 games played in seven seasons in the league (114 total possible games) and surpassing 70 on PFF in all six seasons, with three seasons over 80, including grades of 84.5 and 86.4 over the past two seasons. 

The Rams were in cap hell and lacking draft capital, so they decided to move Ramsey, but he is still only in his age 29 season and could remain a top level cornerback for at least another season or two before he starts declining. His addition should be a big boost for a secondary that had just one cornerback play more than 300 snaps and finish above 60 on PFF in 2022, with no cornerbacks above 70. The Dolphins should also get a better year out of their other starting outside cornerback Xavien Howard, who had finished above 70 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons prior to falling to 58.4 in 2022. 

Howard now heads into his age 30 season, which is a concern, but his struggles last season were mostly due to an injury that he played through and, even if his best days are behind him, he still has a lot of bounce back potential as, even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average cornerback. I would expect more from Howard in 2023, assuming he’s healthier, which is not a guarantee, as he’s missed 27 games in seven seasons in the league. Even with Howard’s durability concerns though, with Ramsey coming in, the Dolphins have a good chance to have a pair of above average outside cornerbacks, at a position that was kind of a weakness a year ago.

The Dolphins best cornerback a year ago in terms of PFF grade was actually undrafted rookie Kader Kohou, who played 895 snaps and posted a 69.8 grade. That could prove to be a fluke and Kohou might not be as good again, as he hasn’t shown enough yet to ignore the fact that the whole league, including the Dolphins, let him go undrafted a year ago, but he’s at least earned the chance to keep the #3 cornerback job and could remain a solid player in that role.

The Dolphins also have good alternatives in case Kohou slips up in his second season in the league, using a 2nd round pick on South Carolina’s Cam Smith and also retaining veteran free agent Nik Needham, who was limited to 294 snaps in six games by injury last season, but who has generally been a middling player on an average of 566 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, with 27 starts in 51 career games played. The Dolphins are pretty deep at the cornerback position and their top-3 have a high upside, even if there’s risk of downside if Howard gets hurt or continues to decline or if Kohou proves his rookie year to be sort of a fluke.

The Dolphins didn’t make any big additions at the safety position, but they will get starting safety Brandon Jones back from an injury that limited him to 347 snaps in seven games last season. Jones only had a 61.1 PFF grade overall and was much better as a run defender (73.3) and blitzer (65.2) than he was in coverage (52.4), which is par for the course from the 2020 3rd round pick, who received grades of 60.8 and 53.4 from PFF on snap counts of 385 and 644 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, while finishing below 60 on pass coverage grade in all three seasons in the league. However, he was still missed when he was hurt, as backup Eric Rowe had a 57.3 grade on 567 snaps and didn’t excel in any aspects of the game.

This season, Jones should get his starting job back, but the Dolphins did add better insurance behind him, replacing Rowe with free agent DeShon Elliott. Elliott can be a capable starter if the Dolphins need him to, receiving grades of 66.6, 65.6, and 66.5 over the past three seasons as a starter, but he comes with his own durability concerns, missing 14 of a possible 50 games over those three seasons. Perhaps moving him to a reserve role will make it easier for him to stay healthy and he is good insurance to have if needed, given his history of being a capable starter.

Jevon Holland remains as the other starting safety opposite Jones. He had a solid 65.5 grade in 17 starts last season, but that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick burst onto the scene with a 84.7 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie. Still only going into his age 23 season, Holland has plenty of bounce back potential in his third season in the league and he could easily still develop into one of the consistently best safeties in the league for years to come. I would expect a better year from him in 2023. WIth Holland and Howard likely to bounce back and Ramsey being added, this secondary is much improved from a year ago.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

On defense, the Dolphins finished last season 15th in DVOA and they should be better this year, probably noticeably, with likely bounce back years coming from Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, the addition of Jalen Ramsey, and Emmanuel Ogbah and Bradley Chubb likely to give them more than a year ago. The Dolphins also have a strong supporting cast on offense and have the potential to get high level play from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which would make this team among the favorites in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, Tagovailoa comes with a history of injury and inconsistency, so the Dolphins are not necessarily likely to get the best case scenario out of Tagovailoa, and not getting a high level season out of Tagovailoa would hurt their chances of being high level contenders. As long as Tagovailoa doesn’t miss the whole season or drop off completely, this should at least be a playoff team, even in the loaded AFC, with the upside for more and they are among the most intriguing sleepers in the league, but they come with some downside as well. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East