Quarterback

The Browns thought they had solved their long standing quarterback issues when they selected quarterback Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and then watched him instantly be a solid starter as a rookie, completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.66 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Mayfield regressed in year two, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but seemed to bounce back in year three, completing 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions during the 2020 regular season and then leading the Browns to their first post-season victory since 1994. 

However, Mayfield again regressed in an injury plagued 2021 season, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With Mayfield’s rookie contract nearing the end and his salary about to increase significantly in 2022, the Browns opted to move on from Mayfield and shoot higher at the quarterback position. Mayfield’s tenure as the Browns’ starting quarterback coincided with their most successful team stretch in years, but the Browns also had the most talent around the quarterback that they had in years and they felt that Mayfield, who only averaged 32.1 pass attempts per start on a run-heavy team, was not the reason they were winning and that, in order to get to their ultimate goal, they needed an upgrade at the position. 

In order to find that upgrade, the Browns took a controversial approach, not only entering the running to trade for disgraced Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, a highly talented quarterback with a very concerning off-the-field situation, but also going above and beyond to acquire Watson, outbidding all other teams by giving up a trio of first round picks and guaranteeing Watson a long-term 5-year, 230 million dollar deal upon arrival in Cleveland. The Browns also did that without first finding a home for Mayfield and ended up having to eat most of Mayfield’s salary just to get a late round pick back for him in a trade, when they sent him to the Carolina Panthers. 

Watson missed his entire 2021 season because of his off-the-field situation and was set to face a significant suspension in his first season in Cleveland, but the Browns still paid him 45.3675 million in his first year with the team and structured it in a way that he would make almost all of that money even if he was suspended for all of most of the 2023 season. That suspension ended up being 11 games and, while Watson returned for the final 6 games of the season, he seemed like a shell of himself, completing just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 7.47 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries and accumulating an overall 55.3 PFF grade. The Browns did go 3-3 in those games, as opposed to 4-7 without Watson, but that was primarily because their defense was much better in the games that Watson played. 

In Watson’s last full season in 2020, he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries and accumulating an overall 92.4 PFF grade. That was in line with how he played in 2018 and 2019, when he completed a combined 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, while rushing for 5.33 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 181 carries and receiving PFF grades of 82.7 and 81.3 respectively in those two seasons. 

Still only in his age 28 season, Watson has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, after another year of building chemistry with his new teammates and learning this new scheme, but it’s concerning that he’s two seasons removed from his last impressive season, given how much the Browns have invested and risked to get Watson as their quarterback, and it’s possible Watson will never be as good as he was in Houston, in a new city, with new teammates, having permanently damaged his reputation around the league.

Jacoby Brissett, who the Browns added to be Watson’s replacement when he was suspended last year, actually outplayed Watson by a pretty big amount, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts. With Watson set to play a full season in 2023, Brissett wasn’t retained this off-season, so the pressure will be on Watson to bounce back to something resembling his old form, with his backup likely to be Josh Dobbs, a 2017 4th round pick who made the first two starts of his career last season and who has just a 66.6 QB rating on 85 pass attempts in his career. The Browns also used a 5th round pick on UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson as a potential long-term backup and there’s a chance he could beat out Dobbs as early as year one, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into extended starting action. There’s plenty of upside here, but plenty of downside as well.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

If the Browns are unable to be true contenders this year, the blame will likely fall on the quarterback, as the Browns still have one of the more talented rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. Their biggest strength is probably their offensive line, which has been a big strength for the past several years, including a 2022 campaign in which they ranked 7th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 8th in team run blocking grade, making life easier for the spot starter Brissett and making Watson’s struggles even more concerning. With all five starters returning from a year ago, I would expect more of the same in 2023.

In fact, not only are all five starters returning from a year ago, but four of the five starters have been together for three seasons, with the only relatively new member of this offensive line being Ethan Pocic, who they signed last off-season on a cheap 1-year, 1.1875 million dollar deal as a replacement option for retiring long-time Browns center JC Tretter. Pocic proved to be a steal on that one-year deal, breaking out with by far a career best 78.9 PFF grade, 3rd in the NFL among eligible centers. There’s a reason Pocic was available so cheap last off-season though, as Pocic was a mediocre and injury prone starter for most of his the first five seasons of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons, with no seasons above 70, and 24 games missed due to injury. 

Pocic was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and his two best seasons before joining the Browns were 2020 (62.4 in 14 starts) and 2021 (67.3 in 10 starts), so it’s possible Pocic is just a late bloomer who will continue being an above average starter going forward, but, even if that’s the case, Pocic is still as unlikely to be quite as good as he was a year ago again in 2023 and even last season he did miss another 4 games with injury, so he’s a good bet to miss more time at some point this season, and it’s possible he could regress significantly. The Browns only paid 18 million on a 3-year deal to keep him this off-season, which is not a bad deal at all considering his upside, but it seems more likely than not that he won’t be as good as he was a year ago again in 2023.

Fortunately, the Browns do have a couple starters who could be better this year than a year ago, most notably right guard Wyatt Teller. Teller wasn’t bad in 2022 with a 70.3 PFF grade, but that’s a big drop off from the 92.7 grade he had in 2020 and the 84.9 grade he had in 2021 and that drop off was likely caused by injuries that caused him to miss two games and seemed to limit him in several others. Still only in his age 29 season, Teller has a good chance to bounce back and be better in 2023 if he can stay healthier. 

Right tackle Jack Conklin is also coming off of a down year, as his 66.7 PFF grade in 14 starts last season was actually the worst of his 7-year career. With five seasons over 70 and three seasons over 80 in his career, and only going into his age 29 season, Conklin would seem to have a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, but he does have a concerning injury history, with 21 games missed in the past five seasons combined, including a torn patellar tendon that ended his 2021 season after 7 starts and that could have easily been the cause of his down 2022 season. It’s possible he’ll never be the same again after that injury, which is one of the most serious an athlete can suffer, but I wouldn’t expect him to decline any further at the moment, so he should remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more if he can find his old form. 

Left guard Joel Bitonio was probably their best offensive lineman a year ago, with a 87.5 PFF grade on 17 starts, and he has been one of the best guards in the league for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so there is some concern that he could decline, at least somewhat in 2023. He’s exceeded 70 on PFF in all but one of his 9 seasons in the league, all with the Browns who selected him in the 2nd round in 2014, and his last three seasons have actually been the best 3-year stretch of his career, with PFF grades above 80 in all 3 seasons, including a career best 93.6 as recently as 2021, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2023, he is declining from a pretty high level and should at least remain an above average starter. However, a noticeable decline from him would hurt this offensive line at least a little bit.

Left tackle Jedrick Wills was probably their weakest starter a year ago, which has been the case for a few years, since Wills entered the league in 2020, but that’s mostly just because of how good the rest of this offensive line has been, as he has finished with a grade in the 60s on PFF in all three seasons in the league and has the upside for more, as a former 10th overall pick who is still only going into his age 24 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2023 proved to be the best year of Wills’ career thus far and a significant breakout is a possibility as well. Even if he doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a capable blindside protector.

For reserves, the Browns top options are swing tackle James Hudson and interior reserve Nick Harris. Hudson was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played snap counts of 296 and 303 over the past two seasons and hasn’t been horrible, with grades of 57.3 and 57.8 respectively, which he could prove upon going forward, given his upside, but he also could be a liability if he had to start for an extended period of time. 

Harris, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2020 and was supposed to be their starting center in 2022, but he suffered an injury in the pre-season that knocked him out for the year and opened up the job for Pocic. Harris still has upside, but he’s also only made two career starts thus far and he’s coming off of a significant injury, so it’s questionable how he would fare if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. The Browns’ depth options could be better, but they have one of the best starting offensive lines in the league and, even if they lose a starter or two and have to replace them with a mediocre reserve, they could still remain an above average offensive line.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Browns also have a strong running game, led by top back Nick Chubb, who took 302 carries for 1,525 yards (5.05 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last season, finishing 3rd in the league in rushing. That’s nothing new for Chubb, who has excelled throughout his career as a lead back, especially behind this offensive line, rushing for 5.24 YPC and 48 touchdowns on 1,210 carries in five seasons in the league, including 5.35 YPC and 32 touchdowns on 720 carries over the past three seasons. In terms of PFF grade, Chubb has exceeded 80 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a career best 90.3 last season, 2nd among eligible running backs. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, the 2018 2nd round pick should continue excelling as a runner this season.

Kareem Hunt actually had 123 carries as Chubb’s backup last season, as the Browns were a run heavy team, ranking 5th in the NFL with 532 carries. Hunt is no longer with the team, but the Browns are likely to pass more in 2023 anyway with Watson in his first full season as the starter and Watson will take off and run often by himself, so I wouldn’t expect the Browns’ #2 running back to get nearly as many carries this season. Hunt also only had a 3.80 YPC average last season anyway, so he won’t be missed too much. However, Chubb has never done much on passing downs (0.96 yards per route run, 119 catches in 75 career games), so there will be passing down work available for backup running backs.

Jerome Ford, a 5th round pick in 2022, is the leading candidate for the top reserve role, but he only played 14 snaps as a rookie, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role, even if he does have the upside to take a step forward in year two. Ford caught 21 passes for 220 yards in his final collegiate season in 2021, so he has shown some potential in passing situations, but he probably won’t have as much as Hunt did (1.29 yards per route run average for his career), so Chubb could see a few more balls go his way through the air this season.

Behind Ford, options are even more limited. John Kelly was a 6th round pick by the Rams in 2018, but has just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries (3.00 YPC) in his career. Demetric Felton is a hybrid running back/wide receiver and could play a role as a passing down option, but he only has 8 career carries and 20 career catches on 205 career snaps in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021 and is probably not capable of handling a big load as a runner at just 5-9 190. Behind Kelly and Felton, this depth chart consists of recent undrafted free agents with no career touches. The Browns have a great lead back in Nick Chubb, but he’s not great in passing down situations and their depth behind him is questionable, so they would be in trouble if Chubb missed extended time and they could benefit from adding a veteran before training camp to give them added depth.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Browns receiving corps was a bit of a weakness last season. Top wide receiver Amari Cooper had a great year, with a 78/1160/9 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 81.2 PFF grade, producing well despite inconsistent quarterback play. With a 1.88 career yards per route run average, a career 81/1120/7 average slash line per 17 games, and seven seasons above 70 on PFF, last season was not out of the ordinary for Cooper, who should continue playing at a similar level again in 2023, still only in his age 29 season. However, the rest of this wide receiver group was mediocre last season, so the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman and traded away the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital to acquire 2021 2nd round pick Elijah Moore from the Jets. 

Moore is the much more likely of the two to make an impact in 2023. He flashed a lot of potential with a 71.2 PFF grade, 43/538/5 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, but he fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season in year two and had just a 57.5 PFF grade, 37/446/1 slash line, and 0.90 yards per route run in a reduced role, before ultimately getting traded this off-season. Only in his age 23 season, Moore still has a lot of potential and the Browns clearly value him, trading away significant draft capital for him, despite him only having two years left on his contract. He could prove to be a disappointment, but he also has breakout potential in what could be a big role as the #2 wide receiver on what should be a much pass heavier offense this season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones was the #2 wide receiver last season with a 61/839/3 slash line on 96 targets, but his 1.46 yards per route run average was middling at best and his career yards per route run of 1.56 isn’t much better, so the 2020 6th round pick would probably be better off as the third wide receiver. The rookie Tillman could also push for a role in year one, which would also cut into Peoples-Jones playing time and targets. 

The Browns also used 3rd round picks in 2021 and 2022 on wide receivers Anthony Schwartz and David Bell and Bell actually played 514 snaps as the third receiver last season, but they have averaged just 0.70 yards per route run and 0.82 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, with Moore and Tillman being brought in, as well as 6th round rookie Michael Woods, both Schwartz and Bell are likely to be on the roster bubble this season and are unlikely to make much of an impact even if they do make the team. Bell moving from the #3 wide receiver role, in which he struggled mightily in 2022 (113th out of 115 eligible wide receivers on PFF), to potentially being off the roster shows how this group is now significantly deeper than a year ago.

With inconsistent play at wide receiver behind Amari Cooper last season, tight end David Njoku was actually second on the team with a 1.55 yards per route run average, leading to a 58/628/4 slash line in 14 games, a career best in both yards per route run and yards per game. His 73.7 PFF grade was also the best of his career. A first round pick in 2017, Njoku hasn’t quite lived up to the billing, but he has exceeded 60 on PFF in every healthy season in the league and he’s gotten more playing time in recent years after splitting snaps earlier in his career. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a solid, if unspectacular tight end option. The Browns are deeper at wide receiver than a year ago so Njoku might not have the same target share, but there also probably will be more targets to go route on what will likely be a more pass-heavy team this year.

Harrison Bryant played 563 snaps as the #2 tight end last season, as the Browns ran two-tight sets often to mask their lack of wide receiver depth. They probably won’t run as many this season, so there will likely be fewer snaps for a #2 tight end, and Bryant has been a decent option throughout his career, as the 2020 4th round pick has played 518 snaps per season, holding up as a blocker, averaging 1.08 yards per route run route, and posting overall grades of 60.7, 64.8, and 59.3 respectively on PFF, but the Browns also still felt the need to add another tight end this off-season, signing veteran Jordan Akins, a former starter with the Texans. Akins has never exceeded 500 yards receiving in a season and he’s now going into his age 31 season, but he does have a decent 1.27 yards per route average for his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so he could contribute in a limited role, at a deep tight end position. This isn’t a great receiving corps, but they are definitely better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Browns still finished the 2022 season 8th in offensive DVOA, even with Deshaun Watson missing most of the season and struggling upon his return. With Watson having bounce back potential in his first year as a full season starter in Cleveland, the Browns’ offense has a good chance to be a high level unit in 2023, but their defense was a problem a year ago, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. Fortunately, there are reasons to be optimistic on this side of the ball. For one, defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Browns are more talented on defense than their rank last season, so they have a good chance to regress to the mean and be at least an average defense this season. 

They also should be healthier, after having the 9th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense in 2022, and they have made some key additions, including new talented defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. From an on-the-field standpoint, probably their biggest addition was interior defensive Dalvin Tomlinson, who comes over from the Vikings on a 4-year, 57 million dollar deal, giving the Browns a huge upgrade at a position where the Browns best player a year ago was Taven Bryan, who only had a 60.0 grade on 642 snaps and who is no longer on the team. 

Aside from Bryant, the Browns top interior defenders a year ago 2020 3rd round pick Jordan Elliott (703 snaps), 2022 4th round pick Perrion Winfrey (342 snaps), and 2021 4th round pick Tommy Togiai (225 snaps), who had grades of 40.4, 37.3, and 41.6 respectively on PFF. They’re all young, remain on the roster, and still have upside, but they have a long way to go towards being even decent rotational players, with Elliott also receiving grades of 55.3 and 41.6 on snap counts of 307 and 464 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and Togiai struggling mightily on just 125 snaps as a rookie before struggling mightily again last season.

Tomlinson, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, on an average of 610 snaps per game, and he should continue doing so in 2023, still only going in his age 29 season. He’s at his best as a run defender, but he’s become a better pass rusher in recent years, with 8.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. He’s a huge addition at a position of need. The Browns also added Baylor’s Siaka Ika in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and he will compete to play a role right away. He will probably have some growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the Browns’ other young interior defenders. 

The Browns also took fliers on Trysten Hill and Maurice Hurst in free agency and they will compete for roles as well, though they could just as easily wind up off the final roster. Hill was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries and inconsistent play have limited him to 733 snaps played in 31 games in four seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 25 and he has shown a little potential with grades of 65.3 and 62.8 over the past two seasons, but that has been on snap counts of just 171 and 229 respectively, so he’s still a projection to anything more than a deep rotational role.

Hurst has also had injury issues throughout his career, only playing in 42 of 82 possible games in five seasons in the league, including just two games (41 snaps) over the past two seasons. In his healthiest seasons, he has received grades of 71.4, 73.1, and 77.9 on PFF on snap counts of 472 snaps, 522 snaps, and 277 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, playing the run well and managing a 7.7% pressure rate, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so there’s potential here if he can stay healthy. However, that’s a big if and it’s possible that injuries have sapped his abilities and that, even if he can stay on the field, he might not be as effective as he once was. The Browns added talent to the interior defender position this off-season, particularly free agent Dalvin Tomlinson, and they have options with upside aside from him, but none of those other options are guarantees, as it’s a mix of inexperienced and unproven young players and players with significant injury histories. 

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Browns also signed edge defender Za’Darius Smith in free agency to replace free agent departure Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was allowed to leave despite a 75.8 PFF grade a year ago, but he also consistently had injury problems, including injuries that limited him to just 494 snaps played in 12 games last season, and Smith is a similar caliber player who will likely be more durable and who could even prove to be an upgrade over Clowney, who was good, but not great in his tenure in Cleveland.

Excluding an injury plagued 2021 season, Smith has played 49.9 snaps per game while playing 64 of a possible 65 games in his last 4 seasons and topping 70 overall on PFF in all four of those seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 44.5 sacks, 71 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Smith is now heading into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, with a 82.2 PFF grade in 2022, second best of his career. Even if he isn’t quite as good as that again in 2023, he should remain an above average every down starter for the Browns, barring an unexpected massive decline.

Smith will start next to Myles Garrett, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Garrett has had a grade of 80 or higher on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including back-to-back seasons over 90 over the past two seasons, when he has had 32 sacks, 27 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 33 games. Very much in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, Garrett should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates going into this season.

Depth was a problem for the Browns at the edge defender position a year ago, with Alex Wright posting just a 38.4 grade on 543 snaps as the top reserve, but the 2022 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league and he’s unlikely to have to play as play of a role anyway, with the Browns adding veteran Ogbo Okoronkwo in free agency on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal and using a 4th round pick on Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire. McGuire might be too raw to contribute beyond a deep rotational role in year one, but Okoronkwo is a talented rotational edge defender who figures to have a positive impact.

Okoronkwo was buried on the depth chart in a talented position group early in his career with the Rams, despite being a 5th round pick in 2018, playing just 528 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league combined, but he impressed with a 12.5% pressure rate in limited action and carried that into a larger role with the Texans in 2022, playing 517 snaps, receiving a 75.1 overall grade from PFF, and totaling 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in a part-time role. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. WIth Garrett, Smith, and Okoronkwo as the Browns’ top-3 edge defenders and Wright and McGuire having upside behind them, this is an impressive position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The group where the Browns had the most injuries on defense last season was their linebacking corps. The Browns entered last season with a pair of talented every down options, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a good third option Sione Takitaki, who could also play a bigger role if needed. However, Walker went down from the year with injury after 120 snaps in 3 games, excelling with a 82.7 PFF grade, while Owusu-Koramoah also had a solid season with a 65.5 PFF grade, but was limited to 535 snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Takitaki also had a solid 66.5 grade in an extended role of 41.5 snaps per game, but he also missed time, limited to 12 games, leaving Deion Jones (422 snaps), Jacob Phillips (320 snaps), Tony Fields (276 snaps), Jordan Kunaszyk (101 snaps), and Jermaine Carter (93 snaps) to all see snaps and all of them struggled, finishing below 60 on PFF. 

Walker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Takitaki should all be back healthy for 2023 and have the potential to be the above average group they would have been last season if they had been healthy. Walker’s grade in his limited action last season was a fluke for him, as he’s never even exceeded 70 on PFF in another season, but he’s also exceeded 60 on all but one of his six seasons in the league, including a 69.1 grade on 701 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021. Still only in his age 28 season, having played an average of 726 snaps per season in his four seasons prior to last year, Walker should remain at least a solid player in close to an every down role in 2023.

Owusu-Koramoah has the highest upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2021, had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie, and then had a grade of 69.5 through 7 games last season before getting hurt. He’s still pretty inexperienced with an average of 566 snaps played per season played in two years in the league, but he has a high upside and is only going into his age 24 season, so he could easily take a step forward and be an above average player in an every down role for a full season in 2023.

Takitaki, meanwhile, has never played more in a season than the 498 snaps he played last season, but the 2019 3rd round pick has received grades of 64.4, 71.2, 67.5, and 66.5 in his four seasons in the league and would seem to have the upside to hold up in a larger role for an extended period of time if he ever got the chance without getting hurt himself, like he did a year ago. Still only going into his age 28 season, he is one of the best third linebackers in the league and, with the Browns running a 4-3 defense, he will play at least a part-time role in base packages, while providing useful depth in case Walker or Owusu-Koramoah get hurt again. With his rookie deal expired, the Browns kept him on a reasonable 1-year, 2.43 million dollar deal in free agency. 

The Browns also still have 2020 3rd round pick Jacob Phillips, 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, and 2019 undrafted free agent Kunaszyk, but Phillips has mostly struggled while playing just 612 total career snaps in three seasons in the league, Fields didn’t play a snap as a rookie, before struggling in a limited role last season, while Kunaszyk has only played 121 defensive snaps in four seasons in the league and has shown very little promise. They’re not horrible depth options though, at a position group with a talented top trio, which should stay a lot healthier than a year ago, when their depth was exposed in a way that is more than any team would expect to have to deal with.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Browns overhauled the safety position this off-season. John Johnson wasn’t bad with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts last season (1,056 snaps), but he wasn’t worth the 9.75 million he was owed for 2023, so the Browns understandably let him go and they also let go of Ronnie Harrison, who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 259 snaps. In their place, the Browns signed veteran starters Juan Thornhill and Rodney McLeod in free agency, to contracts worth 21 million over 3 years and 1.3175 million over 1 year respectively. They will compete for the two starting roles with top holdover Grant Delpit, who had a 63.6 PFF grade in 17 starts (1,086 snaps). 

Delpit was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and, while the early part of his career was injury plagued, costing him 18 games in his first two seasons, including his entire rookie season, he still had a decent 63.3 grade in 15 starts when on the field in his second season in the league in 2021 and he continued that in a healthier 2022 season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Delpit should remain at least a decent starter in 2023, with the upside for more if he takes a step forward and has the best season of his career in his fourth season in the league. He will likely keep his starting job, even with free agent additions Thornhill and McLeod both being experienced starters.

Thornhill’s contract suggests he’s much more likely to start than McLeod and he’s been a solid starter for most of his career, since going in the 2nd round in 2019. He slipped to 52.8 on PFF in 2020 after his 2019 season ended with an ACL tear, but, aside from that, he has grades of 71.5, 70.2, and most recently 67.1 in his career and should remain a solid starter in his age 28 season in 2023. McLeod, however, was actually the better player a year ago, with a 80.1 grade in 15 starts. 

McLeod came cheap because he’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s been a solid starter for years, with 122 starts in 124 games in the past nine seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF in each of those seasons, including six seasons over 70 and what was actually a career best in 2022, despite his age. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, especially given his age, but he could still remain a starting caliber player and, even if he doesn’t secure a starting job, with Delpit and Thornhill being the favorites, McLeod is still a great insurance and situational option to have.

The Browns also have a good trio at the cornerback position. Denzel Ward is supposed to be the best of the bunch, signed to a 5-year, 100.5 million dollar extension that makes him the 2nd highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he did fall to 56.3 in PFF grade last year and was part of the problem for this defense. However, there’s a reason he got that contract in the first place, as he received grades of 78.9, 69.9, 72.8, and 76.9 from PFF in his first four seasons in the league, after going 4th overall in 2018, and his struggles in 2022 were likely injury related, so he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 26 season. Durability has been a problem for him throughout a career, missing at least two games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, so he’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this year, but he has a good chance to be an above average starter again when on the field.

Greg Newsome was also a first round pick, selected 26th overall in 2021. He hasn’t been bad through two seasons in the league, with grades of 68.1 and 69.1 on snap counts of 691 and 907 respectively, and he has the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he may have been surpassed on the depth chart, to no fault of his own, by Martin Emerson, a 2022 3rd round pick who had an impressive 72.5 grade on 783 snaps as a rookie. Both Emerson and Newsome will play big roles in 2023 and both have a lot of upside, but it’s possible Emerson ends up as the de facto #2 cornerback, with Newsome being more of a slot specialist.

Behind their top-3 at cornerback, the Browns have 2021 6th round pick Thomas Graham, who has flashed potential, but who has played just 149 snaps in his career, 2020 undrafted free agent AJ Green, who has been up and down in 319 career snaps, 2018 undrafted free agent Mike Ford, a career reserve who has never played more than 316 snaps in a season, and 5th round rookie Cameron Mitchell, who is likely too raw to make a significant impact as a rookie. Those are all underwhelming options, so the Browns could be in a little bit of trouble if they suffer one or especially multiple injuries at the cornerback position, but this is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns are stuck in by far the tougher of the two conferences, but even still they are a very talented team that has some sleeper potential. Their potential hinges on quarterback Deshaun Watson returning to form, or at least close to it, but the Browns surround him with a great offensive line and running game, and an improved receiving corps, on an offense that ranked 8th in DVOA last season, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Their defense, on the other hand, ranked just 23rd in DVOA last season, but they should be better this season.

Dalvin Tomlinson upgrades the interior defender position. Za’Darius Smith is likely to be healthier than Jadeveon Clowney at the edge defender position. They’ll likely have better health in the linebacking corps, and they’ll likely get a bounce back year from expected top cornerback Denzel Ward, as well as an improved coaching staff, led by experienced coordinator Jim Schwartz. They have the talent to be an above average unit on defense, as well as on offense, and they should at least compete for a playoff spot, even with as many other contenders as there are in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in AFC North