Quarterback

The Chiefs have the lowest floor of any team in the league because they have the league’s best quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who ensures they will at least have a strong offense. In Mahomes’ five seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterbacks, Mahomes has led the Chiefs’ offense to finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in offensive DVOA, despite changing personnel around him. Offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, especially when a team has an elite quarterback like Mahomes, so the Chiefs should remain a high level offense in 2023, barring an unexpected injury to Mahomes, who has missed just two starts due to injury in his tenure as the starter.

In total, Mahomes has completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions (105.7 QB rating), while receiving grades of 93.2, 83.6, 91.4, 77.1, and 91.3 respectively on PFF, and going 64-16 overall, with his worst season being a 12-5 finish. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Mahomes should continue playing at a dominant level in 2023 and beyond and, as long as he has at least a decent roster around him, he should continue having this team in regular contention for the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ backup will be veteran Blaine Gabbert, who was signed this off-season. Obviously any quarterback who backs up Mahomes would be an obvious downgrade if he had to play in Mahomes’ absence, but Gabbert is probably on the lower end of backups even by that standard. In his career, Gabbert has made 48 starts in 12 seasons in the league with a career QB rating of just 72.6, with just none of those starts coming in the past four seasons, in which he has thrown a total of 35 pass attempts, clearly settled into the backup quarterback stage of his career, after competing for starting jobs in earlier seasons. In his age 34 season, Gabbert is who he is at this stage of his career, a smart backup, but someone you obviously want to avoid having to play, especially when you consider who the regular starter is.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

There were a couple big changes to Mahomes’ supporting cast this off-season. At the tackle position, the Chiefs let free agents Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie walk, signing deals worth 64.092 million over 4 years with the Bengals and 24 million over 3 years with the Commanders respectively, and the Chiefs replaced with them former Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and former Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal. 

Overall, it seems like the Chiefs’ new tackle duo is a downgrade from the previous one. On the left side, Donovan Smith will likely be a downgrade from Orlando Brown, who finished last season with a 75.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. Smith had three straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2021, including a career best 83.3 in 2021, but that fell to 58.1 in 2022 and, while injuries had a lot to do with that, Smith is now heading into his age 30 season, so his best days should be behind him at this point, even if he does have some bounce back potential. He has a good chance to remain a solid starter if he can stay healthy, which isn’t a huge concern, as he’s missed just six games in 8 seasons in the league, but I would still expect him to be a downgrade from the incumbent Orlando Brown.

On the right side, you would think Jawaan Taylor would be a big upgrade on Andrew Wylie, considering the Chiefs gave Taylor a contract that makes him the 5th highest paid offensive tackle and the second highest paid right tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary. However, Taylor was likely overpaid on that contract, as the 2019 2nd round pick has received overall grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in all four seasons in the league. 

Taylor has received grades of 72.0 and 76.4 in pass protection over the past two seasons respectively, but his run blocking still leaves something to be desired and he’s one of the most penalized offensive linemen in the league, with 39 penalties in 66 career games. Even if he might still have untapped upside in his age 26 season, Taylor seems unlikely to live to his contract and the incumbent Wylie, who had a 63.1 PFF grade last season, would have given them a capable starter at a much cheaper price.

The interior of this offensive line was the strength of this group a year ago, even with solid tackle play, and, with all three interior starters returning for 2023, this should remain a strength. Center Creed Humphrey and right tackle Trey Smith were added in the 2021 NFL Draft, in the 2nd and 6th round respectively. Humphrey instantly was one of the best centers in the league, receiving grades of 91.4 and 90.0 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons, and, only in his age 24 season, he seems well on his way towards being one of the best centers in the league for years to come.

Smith, meanwhile, was a steal where he was drafted and only fell because of health concerns that have not been a problem thus far, with Smith missing just one career start in two seasons in the league and showing he should have been a much higher draft pick, with PFF grades of 72.3 and 71.5 respectively. Still only in his age 24 season, Smith should remain an above average starter for years to come and may have the upside to become even better in his third season in the league in 2023.

Left guard Joe Thuney was also added during the 2021 off-season, signed to a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Thuney has consistently been one of the better guards in the league for most of his career, receiving PFF grades of 73.5, 75.7, 77.4, and 74.2 respectively in his final four seasons in New England and then continuing that with the Chiefs, with grades of 80.5 and 77.3 over the past two seasons respectively. His age is a concern, now in his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he should remain at least a solid starter.

The Chiefs will probably have more injuries on the offensive line than a year ago, when their starting five offensive line missed just three starts combined, but they do have decent depth. Lucas Niang is the swing tackle and the 2020 3rd round pick showed promise with a 64.6 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2021, though that season is sandwiched in between a rookie year lost to injury and a 2022 campaign where he saw just 10 snaps, as a reserve on a very healthy offensive line. 

Guard Nick Allegretti played the most snaps of any of their reserves last season, with 286 snaps and 3 starts, and he’s been mostly decent in 12 starts since being selected in the 7th round in 2019, leading to the Chiefs retaining him as a free agent this off-season on a 1-year, 2.5825 million dollar deal to remain a reserve in Kansas City. The Chiefs also have backup center Austin Reiter, who didn’t play a snap last year behind Creed Humphrey, but who made 33 starts from 2019-2021, receiving 63.0 and 70.9 grades in 2019 and 2020 with the Chiefs prior to Humphrey’s arrival, but then falling to 46.9 in 2021 after signing with the Dolphins. The Chiefs would see a dropoff in play if any of their reserves had to see significant action, but they don’t have bad backups and their starting five is one of the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big change to this offense is the loss of top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished last season with a 78/933/3 slash line on 101 targets. Smith-Schuster led a group last season that was already significant different than the year before, most notably losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but also losing five of the six wide receivers who caught a pass for them in 2021, replacing them with Smith-Schuster and fellow free agent addition Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, and eventually former Giants 2021 first round pick Kadarius Toney, who they Chiefs added in a mid-season trade for a third round pick last season. The Chiefs also still had Mecole Hardman last season (25/297/4 slash line on 34 targets), their lone holdover from 2021, though he too left the team this off-season.

With Smith-Schuster and Hardman gone, the Chiefs will be hoping for more out of Moore in his second season in the league and out of Kadarius Toney in his first full season in Kansas City, after they contributed just 313 snaps and 109 snaps during the regular season last year, and the Chiefs also added veteran free agent Richie James and second round pick Rashee Rice. Along with veteran Valdes-Scantling, those aforementioned players will all compete for roles in a pretty wide open receiving corps. 

Valdes-Scantling is likely locked into a starting role, after playing 777 snaps and totaling a 42/687/2 slash line with a 1.24 yards per route run average a year ago, but the 2018 5th round pick is almost definitely not someone who is going to turn into a #1 wide receiver at this stage of his career, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run and not exceeding 700 yards receiving in any of his five seasons in the league, despite spending his whole career with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. He’s not a terrible starter and could see a small uptick in targets this season with Smith-Schuster gone, but even Valdes-Scantling’s middling production has more to do with his quarterback play and the talent around him than anything he does.

Moore and Toney have upside and are likely penciled in as the other two starters with Valdes-Scantling in three wide receiver sets, although they come with downside as well. Moore barely played as rookie and his 1.50 yards per route run in limited action left something to be desired, considering the offense he played on, while Toney has a career 2.12 yards per route run average, but consistent injuries have limited him to just 446 snaps in 19 games in two seasons in the league. Toney seems like the better option of the two, as a former first round pick who has shown a lot of promise thus far in his career, but durability will remain a concern for him and he’s still very unproven, while Moore, despite his underwhelming rookie year, still profiles as a long-term starter as well, even if he might not show it yet in year two. 

Moore and Toney will be pushed for these jobs by the rookie Rashee Rice and the veteran free agent Richie James. Rice has a high upside long-term and has a good chance to make an immediate impact, while James playing in 3-wide receivers would likely be seen as a worst case scenario, as the veteran is a mediocre option who was mostly added for insurance and depth purposes, in an inexperienced receiving corps. James has a career 1.58 yards per route run average and had a 57/569/4 slash line with the Giants in 2022, but he’s mostly been a reserve in his career, with his best slash line prior to 2022 being a 23/394/1 slash line in 2021, and it’s unlikely that he suddenly breaks out in his 6th season in the league in 2023.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, the best receiving tight end in the league and this team’s de facto #1 receiver a year ago, with a 110/1338/12 slash line on 152 targets, in a role in which he will serve again in 2023. Kelce’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he’s been very durable in his career, missing just three games in the past nine seasons combined, and, even if he does decline in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he figures to remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless, exceeding 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run and exceeding 1000 yards receiving in all seven of those seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good again in 2023, he should remain the Chiefs’ top target in the passing game.

Noah Gray, the #2 tight end, also had a pretty significant role in this offense last season for a backup tight end, playing 599 snaps and averaging 1.06 yards per route run with a 28/299/1 slash line on 34 targets. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gray didn’t show much as a rookie and will remain a backup in 2023, but he’s a solid #2 tight end and he may be someone the Chiefs view as a potential long-term successor for Kelce, when Kelce eventually declines or decides to hang them up. With a mostly inexperienced group at wide receiver, expect the Chiefs to continue relying on the tight end position heavily on the passing game. Kelce significantly elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, though there is some concern he may start to decline even somewhat, given his age.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running back has relatively been a position of weakness for the Chiefs on offense in recent years. They attempted to solve the situation by using a 2020 1st round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he has been a disappointment through three seasons in the league. Injuries have been part of the problem, costing him 17 games total, but he also hasn’t been that effective, averaging 4.37 yards per carry on 371 carries and 0.98 yards per route run in his career. Edwards-Helaire will probably remain on the roster for 2023, but the Chiefs have tried trading him and, after declining his 5th year option for 2024, this will likely be Edwards-Helaire’s final season in Kansas City.

With Edwards-Helaire struggling to lock down the running back position, it was actually a much lower draft pick who stabilized the running back position for the Chiefs in 2022, with 7th round rookie Isiah Pacheco giving them their best lead back in years, taking 170 carries for 830 yards (4.88 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, despite having to earn his way into playing time early in the year, with just 44 carries in his first 8 games, before averaging 14.0 carries per game in his final 9 games. 

Pacheco didn’t contribute much in the passing game, with 13 catches and 0.88 yards per route run, but he ran well enough that he should remain the clear lead back and, not having to earn his way into that role early in the season, Pacheco should exceed last year’s carry total, now as a season-long starter. He could regress somewhat and it’s still worth noting that the whole league let him fall to the 7th round a year ago, but he could easily remain a solid early down back and he should have plenty of running room, on an offense where the passing game is a much bigger threat for defenses to worry about.

Pacheco will likely pair with veteran Jerick McKinnon, who only averaged 4.04 YPC on 72 carries a year ago, but who had a 56/512/9 slash line on 71 targets with a 1.50 yards per route run average that ranked 10th in the NFL among running backs. That’s nothing new for McKinnon, whose career 4.05 YPC average on 639 carries in 9 seasons in the league leaves something to be desired, but who also has a yards per route run average of 1.29 for his career and who could continue producing at the level he produced at last season, playing with by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with. 

McKinnon’s age is a concern in his age 31 season, which tends to be when running backs are over the hill, but McKinnon isn’t a traditional running back and doesn’t have the same amount of career usage (883 touches) as most backs in their age 31 season, so he could easily remain a solid pass catching option for another season or two, even if he does start to decline slightly. He and Pacheco complement each other well and should remain a solid, if unspectacular duo in 2023, with Edwards-Helaire as an insurance option.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Chiefs’ offense has been consistently dominant through Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the starter, their defense has consistently left something to be desired, ranking 27th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, and 17th over the past five seasons respectively. In the two seasons where the Chiefs were even average on defense, they won the Super Bowl and that is not a coincidence, as their offense is so good their defense only needs to be a decent complementary unit to them to be the best team in the league. There are reasons to believe the Chiefs can continue being a decent unit on that side of the ball in 2023, like they were in 2022, as they return 8 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from a year ago.

The position group with the most change on this defense is their edge defenders. Frank Clark (716 snaps) was one of the two of their top-10 in terms of snaps to not return in 2023, while Carlos Dunlap (571 snaps), who fell just outside their top-10, also was not brought back this off-season. Both were decent players a year ago, with PFF grades of 67.2 and 66.4 respectively, but the Chiefs used their first round pick on Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah and signed free agent Charles Omenihu to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal and both could be comparable replacements.

Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu are also much younger than Dunlap and Clark, who were going into their age 34 and age 30 seasons respectively, and, as a result, they have the upside to be better than Dunlap and Clark were a year ago. Anudike-Uzomah is obviously a rookie with a high upside and, even with Omenihu going into his 5th season in the league, after being selected in the 5th round in 2019, he’s still only in his age 26 season and could have further untapped upside as well.

Omenihu’s run defense has left something to be desired throughout his career, finishing below 60 in PFF run defense grade in all four seasons in the league, and, in part because of that, he’s been limited to 479 snaps per season, with a max of 572 snaps in a season, coming last season, but he’s also consistently rushed the passer effectively, exceeding 60 in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including pass rush grades of 81.8 and 75.3 over the past two seasons respectively, a stretch in which he has a 12.8% pressure rate, despite lining up on the interior in obvious passing situations somewhat frequently, having the size to do so at 6-5 280. The Chiefs like to use three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, so Omenihu will fit in well and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he set a career high in snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2023.

The Chiefs also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pass rusher, taking George Karlaftis 30th overall. He immediately played a big role as a rookie, seeing 729 snaps, and while he was mediocre overall, with a 52.0 PFF grade, he should remain in a big role in year two and has the upside to take a big step forward. Michael Danna also remains as a holdover, after playing 471 snaps a year ago. A 5th round pick in 2020, Danna has turned into a decent rotational player, with grades of 61.8, 61.7, and 67.4 on PFF on snap counts of 334, 534, and 471 in his three seasons in the league respectively. 

Danna should remain a decent rotational player in 2023, with the upside for more, still only in his age 26 season. The Chiefs also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Stephen F Austin’s BJ Thompson to give themselves even more edge depth, though he won’t be anything more than a deep reserve unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and, in that case, he could easily struggle if forced into a significant role. This is an unspectacular edge defender group, but they’re not a bad group either and they have plenty of upside, with all of their key players being 26 or under and a pair of first round picks from the last two drafts.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Part of the reason why the Chiefs frequently play three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, with one lined up on the interior, is because they lack depth at the interior defender position, especially for interior pass rushers. Fortunately, they do have Chris Jones, who is one of the best pass rushers in the league regardless of position and who almost never comes off the field, ranking 2nd among interior defenders with 920 snaps played last season. 

Jones also ranked 2nd among interior defenders with an overall 91.5 PFF grade last season, playing the run at a high level and excelling with 15.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s nothing new for Jones, who has exceeded 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including three seasons over 90, while totaling 63 sacks, 75 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 91 games (47.6 snaps per game) over that stretch. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Jones in 2023.

Behind him, the Chiefs’ options are limited. Khalen Saunders (421 snaps) and Derrick Nnadi (388 snaps) played the second and third most snaps at the position last season, but Saunders is no longer with the team, after posting a decent 60.2 PFF grade, while Nnadi struggled mightily last season with a 41.3 PFF grade, especially struggling as a pass rusher with just a 2.4% pressure rate. Nnadi has been better in the past against the run, but he’s finished below average on PFF in back-to-back seasons and has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.7% pressure rate in five seasons in the league, since being selected in the 3rd round by the Chiefs in 2018. Nnadi will almost definitely start in base packages, but only for lack of a better option. 

After Jones and Nnadi, the Chiefs’ top veteran reserve option is Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 66.2 PFF grade on 518 snaps as a rookie, but then fell all the way to 43.3 on 501 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, before suffering a torn ACL midway through the 2022 season, limiting him to mediocre 149 snaps in 5 games. Wharton should be healthy for the start of the 2023 season, but he might not be 100% right away and he’s now three years removed from his last healthy season as a solid rotational reserve, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. The Chiefs also used a 6th round pick on Texas’ Keondre Coburn, who could have to play a role as a rookie, even despite being a late round pick. Chris Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs retain their top-2 off ball linebackers from a year ago, which is a good thing, as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay played well in significant roles, with PFF grades of 75.7 and 69.6 on snap counts of 1,118 and 607 respectively. Both were recent second round picks, Bolton in 2021 and Gay in 2020, and both flashed potential earlier in their career, both career best years in 2022, with Bolton playing 623 snaps and receiving a 69.2 PFF grade as a rookie and Gay playing snap counts of 269 and 436 over his first two seasons in the league and receiving grades of 68.1 and 55.7 respectively. It’s possible both won’t repeat the best year of their career again in 2023, but it’s also possible that they continue developing and become even better. They are one of the best young linebacker duos in the league.

Despite already having Bolton and Gay, the Chiefs were surprisingly able to sign former Charger Drue Tranquill to a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency. Tranquill played 977 snaps last season and received a 66.5 grade from PFF and, only in his age 28 season, seemed like he should have been getting a starting job somewhere, but in Kansas City he’ll be the third linebacker, a role in which the now departed Darius Harris only played 292 snaps last season (64.4 PFF grade), mostly when Gay was out for a 4-game stretch due to suspension.

Tranquill also had a PFF grade of 66.6 on 382 snaps in 2019 and a PFF grade of 64.6 on 560 snaps in 2021, with an injury plagued year in between, so he is relatively proven and gives the Chiefs great depth in case an injury strikes ahead of him on the depth chart. The Chiefs also used a 3rd round pick in 2022 on Leo Chenal and he showed some promise on 262 snaps as a rookie, so they have a very deep and talented group at this position. 

Grade: A-

Secondary

The other starter the Chiefs lost in this defense this off-season was safety Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts, but whose departure the Chiefs were prepared for, using a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Bryan Cook, who flashed potential on 341 snaps as a rookie and who profiles as a solid starter long-term. He will start next to Justin Reid, who remains the starter after being added on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. 

Reid was a 3rd round pick of the Texans in 2018 and immediately had back-to-back above average seasons in his first two years in the league, with grades of 75.2 and 76.7 on snap counts of 906 and 916 respectively, but he came relatively cheap to the Chiefs last off-season because he had back-to-back down years in 2020 and 2021, with grades of 60.7 and 50.9 on snap counts of 888 and 780 respectively. However, Reid bounced back with a 73.2 PFF grade on 1,112 snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2022 and, still only in his age 26 season, he has a good chance to remain a solid starter, even if there’s some risk of him regressing, given his inconsistent past. 

The Chiefs also added veteran Mike Edwards this off-season, to potentially push the young Bryan Cook for the starting job, but most likely to just be an above average third starter, and they also used a 4th round pick on Virginia Tech’s Chamarri Conner, to give them even more depth at the position. Edwards, a 3rd round pick of the Buccaneers in 2019, was a de facto third safety for much of his time in Tampa Bay, but he did flash potential with grades of 77.0 and 73.6 on snap counts of 189 and 532 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, though he was inconsistent and could never translate it to a larger role, with grades of 58.2 and 56.7 on snap counts of 614 and 814 in 2019 and 2022 respectively as well, with his down 2022 season likely being the cause of his deflated free agent market (1-year, 3 million). Still, he’s great depth to have.

At cornerback, the Chiefs return their top-4 from a year ago in terms of snaps played, L’Jarius Sneed (1,106 snaps), Trent McDuffie (683 snaps), Jaylen Watson (604 snaps) and Joshua Williams (437 snaps), and all four are young players with the upside to be better. McDuffie, Watson, and Williams were all drafted just last year, going in the 1st, 7th, and 4th round respectively. McDuffie was a starter in 2022, missing six games with injury, but averaging 62.1 snaps per game when he played and showing the talent that made him a first round pick, with a 73.6 PFF grade. He should remain a starter in 2023 and has the upside to develop into an above average starting cornerback for years to come. 

L’Jarius Sneed is also likely to remain the other starter, after posting a 76.1 grade in 2022. The relative elder of this group, Sneed was a 4th round pick in 2020, flashing talent with a 72.9 PFF grade on 410 snaps as a rookie, posting a 64.1 PFF grade on 918 snaps as a starter in 2021, before breaking out with his career best year in 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter and, given that, he could regress a little in 2023, but, even if he does, he should at least remain a solid starter and, only in his age 26 season, he could easily remain an above average starter for years to come. 

McDuffie and Sneed starting will leave Watson and Williams competing for the third cornerback job. Watson played more snaps last season, but Williams was the better player (60.6 PFF grade vs. 56.1) and was the higher draft pick, so he might have the inside track on the third cornerback job in year two. Williams might not have a huge upside, but he seems like a better option than Watson, who was actually mostly a liability for this secondary last season, even in limited action. This is a young secondary overall, but they have a lot of upside and depth and it’s generally a solid group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Not a lot has changed for the defending Super Bowl Champions, who should remain one of the top few contenders in the league again in 2023, with Patrick Mahomes leading an offense that will remain dominant as long as they have their franchise quarterback on the field, and a defense that looks likely to be a decent complementary unit again in 2023. It’s a tough path out of the AFC for any contender and there’s a good reason why we haven’t had a repeat champ in two decades, but the Chiefs have as good of a chance as anyone to make it back to the top. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West