Month: August 2023

Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterbacks

For 17 seasons from 2000-2016, the Bills didn’t qualify for the post-season once, one of the longest post-season droughts in the modern era. They made it in 2017, but they barely snuck in with a record of 9-7 and their 21st ranked DVOA suggested they were lucky to even win that many games, so the Bills knew they had to get better long-term. The Bills have made a bunch of moves to improve this roster since then, but their biggest decision was taking a shot on quarterback Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

The quarterback position had plagued the Bills for years, with 16 different starting quarterbacks over their 17-year post-season drought, including a pair of first round busts who never amounted to anything (JP Losman and EJ Manuel), but the Bills actually had a decent veteran option in Tyrod Taylor at the time of the Josh Allen selection and it was a big risk for the Bills to give up picks to trade up to select Allen 7th overall, given how raw he was as a prospect. Allen had the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but didn’t show it consistently at the collegiate level, posting mediocre stats on a mediocre team at the University of Wyoming.

As a rookie, Allen showed his physical tools, but also his concerning accuracy, rushing for 7.09 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 89 carries, but completing just 52.8% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and posting just a 58.0 PFF grade as a passer, on a Bills team that took a step backwards from their post-season appearance the year before, finishing with a 6-10 record and a 28th ranked DVOA. 

However, the Bills got better around the quarterback the following off-season and, while Allen still had his share of struggles, he showed significant progress as a passer in year two in 2019, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and posting a 61.9 PFF grade as a passer, while also averaging a 4.68 YPC average and 9 touchdowns on 109 carries, en route to leading the Bills to a 13th ranked finish in DVOA their best record since 1999 at 10-6, securing the team their second playoff appearance in three seasons.

From there, things only got better for the Bills. The team they had spent two decades looking up at in the standings and consistently losing to head-to-head, the New England Patriots, lost their long-time franchise quarterback Tom Brady during the 2020 off-season and, at the same time, Josh Allen broke out as a legitimate franchise quarterback for the Bills in year three. In three seasons since, Allen has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 108 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, with 5.59 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 348 carries, and overall PFF grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, while the Bills have won the division three straight times and have gone a combined 37-12 in the regular season, the second best record in the league over that stretch, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. In terms of DVOA, the Bills have ranked 4th, 2nd, and 1st over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately, for the Bills, this regular season success hasn’t translated to the post-season yet, as the Bills have lost before the Super Bowl in all three seasons, twice to the Chiefs and last season to the Bengals, who have emerged as the other two powerhouses in the AFC at the same time as the Bills. The Bills have a similarly strong roster this season as they have had in the past three seasons and Josh Allen remains an elite quarterback in his prime (age 27 seasons), so the Bills should still be considered among the best teams in the conference, but their conference and division have both gotten significantly better since last season, which hurts their chances of making it out of the AFC and playing in their first Super Bowl in three decades.

Obviously losing Josh Allen for an extended period of time would hurt their chances significantly of even making the post-season, regardless of who was backing him up, but even as far as backup quarterbacks go, the Bills have pretty mediocre ones with veteran journeymen Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley expected to compete for the #2 job behind Josh Allen. Barkley has been with the Bills for years, first joining the team in 2018, and he knows the playbook well, but he has just one start and 97 pass attempts in his tenure with the Bills and the 10-year veteran has a career QB rating of just 66.6 in 7 career starts, while Kyle Allen has a career QB rating of just 82.2 in 19 career starts. Josh Allen’s presence obviously makes this an enviable quarterback room and he hasn’t missed a start with injury in the past four seasons, despite taking more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, but it would be a big concern if Allen did suffer an injury that caused him to miss a significant amount of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from Josh Allen, probably the biggest addition the Bills have made to turn this franchise around is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired from Minnesota for a first round pick during the 2020 off-season. That coincides with when Josh Allen and the Bills really took off as a team and, while Diggs doesn’t deserve all the credit, he has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span, with a 2.29 yards per route run average and slash lines of 127/1535/8, 103/1225/10, and 108/1429/11. 

Diggs wasn’t as productive early in his career in Minnesota, but that was in large part because the Vikings were a much run-heavier offense than the Bills. Including his time in Minnesota, Diggs’ career yards per route run average is 2.12 and he’s exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 80 and a career best 90.1 grade in 2022. Diggs is now heading into his age 30 season and will probably start to decline soon, but even if he drops off a little, he should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023.

The rest of this receiving corps is a bit of a concern though. When the Bills first acquired Diggs, they had other useful receivers in Cole Beasley and John Brown, but those veterans declined and are no longer with the team and the Bills haven’t really found good replacements. Gabe Davis, a 4th round pick in 2020, was given every opportunity to have a big year opposite Diggs in 2022, after averaging 1.29 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.62 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, but Davis didn’t make the most of that, falling back to 1.43 yards per route run and only catching 51.6% of his 93 targets. 

Davis did average 17.4 yards per catch and his 48/836/7 slash line wasn’t bad overall, but he had 3/171/2 of that in one game and was very inconsistent throughout the year, falling below 40 receiving yards 8 times in 15 games and catching 3 of fewer passes 10 times, which kept this offense from it’s highest potential. Meanwhile, slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie was even worse, with just a 42/423/4 slash line on 65 targets and 1.10 yards per route run, while tight end Dawson Knox had just a 48/517/6 slash line also on 65 targets, also with 1.10 yards per route run.

The Bills didn’t really do much to improve this group this off-season, at least in the short-term. Davis looks likely to be locked into the #2 receiver job, without any real competition added, and the Bills will hope he can take a step forward, still only in his age 24 season, which is at least a possibility, even if it might not be a strong one. McKenzie is gone, but the veteran options they signed to potentially replace him, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, are both underwhelming, which likely means Khalil Shakir, who averaged just 1.14 yards per route run in limited action as a 5th round rookie in 2022, and Justin Shorter, a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, will also compete for playing time behind DIggs and Davis. 

Harty has flashed potential with 2.05 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent has never gotten consistent playing time, leading to him having just 64 career catches, and at 5-6 170 it’s hard to see him ever being effective as anything more than a situational player. Sherfield, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 30 catches in a season and a total of 67 catches in his career. Whoever wins the #3 receiver job will almost definitely struggle in that role and it’s very possible the Bills will mix and match their options depending on the situation to try to get the most out of this underwhelming group.

The one big addition the Bills made to this group this off-season was using their first round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was arguably the best receiving tight end in the draft. With Dawson Knox still being on the team and at least being a decent, if unspectacular tight end option (1.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2019), the Bills will probably use a lot more two-tight end sets this season to offset their lack of depth at the wide receiver position, with Kincaid likely to spend a lot of the year as essentially a big slot receiver option at 6-4 246. However, rookie tight ends rarely make a big impact in year one and it’s unlikely Kincaid will be the consistent #2 option that the Bills lacked last season. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, especially with #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs elevating this group significantly by himself, but there are concerns with this group after Diggs.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Over the past two seasons respectively, the Bills have ranked 6th in yards per carry with 4.79 and 2nd in yards per carry with 5.19, but much of that is because of Josh Allen’s dominance on the ground, averaging 6.20 YPC on 246 carries. Lead back Devin Singletary averaged 4.63 YPC on 365 carries over that stretch, but he benefited significantly from defenses worrying about Josh Allen running or Josh Allen throwing it deep, making life much easier for Bills running backs, and the Bills felt they could do better than him this off-season, letting him sign with the Texans on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. Singletary also played heavily in passing situations, but was highly inefficient, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run and 5.03 yards per target in his four seasons in Buffalo.

To replace Singletary, the Bills signed ex-Patriots running back Damien Harris to a 1-year, 1.77 million dollar deal and they will give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick James Cook, who impressed in limited action as a rookie, averaging 5.70 YPC on 89 carries and 1.43 yards per route run as a pass catcher. Harris had a solid 4.66 YPC average with 20 touchdowns on 449 carries in his four seasons in New England, who selected him in the 3rd round in 2019, and he figures to have a significant role as an early down back in Buffalo, but Cook also figures to have a significant early down role, in addition to being their primary passing down back, with Harris averaging 1.10 yards per route run for his career, with just 40 catches in 38 career games. 

Harris and Cook figure to be a good running back tandem, with Cook having the potential for a big breakout year in his second season in the league, even if he isn’t as efficient as he was a year ago and even if he splits carries with Harris. On top of that, the Bills have good depth, signing veteran Latavius Murray to be their 3rd running back. Murray is going into his age 33 season, might not have much left in the tank, and only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average in the passing game, but Murray has averaged 4.22 YPC on 1,481 carries a in 10 seasons in the league, including 4.39 YPC on 160 carries just last season, so you could do a lot worse as your #3 back and he should be able to fill in at least a few carries per game if needed. This is a pretty deep backfield and their likely top back James Cook has the potential for a big year in year two.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this Bills’ offense last season was their offensive line, as they ranked 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 28th in team run blocking grade, and the guard position was particularly a problem. Left guard Rodger Saffold made every start, but finished with just a 43.7 PFF grade and, while right guard Ryan Bates was better with a 61.8 PFF grade, he’s an underwhelming starting option as a former undrafted free agent who had only made four nondescript starts in four seasons in the league prior to last season.

To upgrade the guard position, the Bills cut Saffold, signed Connor McGovern and David Edwards as veteran options, and then used a 2nd round pick on Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence. Those three will compete for the two starting spots with Bates and, while all four options have their problems, this should be a better position group by default than a year ago. Torrence has the most upside of the bunch and could wind up being the best guard from this draft when all is said and done, but he could have some growing pains in year one. Edwards had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while making 31 total starts, and he is only in his age 26 season, but concussion limited him to just 4 starts last season and, at one point, seemed to threaten his career. 

Edwards and Torrence are probably their best two options, but they will have to compete for the job, given that the Bills’ other options have some potential too. McGovern has made 29 starts over the past 3 seasons, went in the 3rd round in 2019, and had a 61.7 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2020 and 68.7 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2021, but that fell to 52.2 in 15 starts in 2022 in the most action of his career. He’s only in his age 26 season though, so there’s still some potential there. Bates, as I mentioned, is a former undrafted free agent with a limited history of starting and probably doesn’t have a high upside, but he was at least serviceable a year ago and potentially could do that again. They have a good chance to find a couple at least decent starters out of these four.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness last season, with Spencer Brown (14 starts) and David Quessenberry (3 starts) finishing with PFF grades of 51.4 and 59.3 respectively last season. The Bills did add veteran journeyman Brandon Shell to the mix this off-season and he’s been a capable starter for most of his career and could be an option for the Bills this season, but he’s also going into his age 31 season and has never exceeded 14 starts in a season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option, even if he could be an upgrade by default over what they got at the position last season. 

Fortunately, the Bills could get bounce back years from either Brown or Quessenberry. Brown was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 62.6 PFF grade in 10 starts as a rookie, before regressing in year two, and he easily could bounce back at least to his rookie year form in his third season in the league in 2023. Quessenberry, meanwhile, had a 80.6 PFF grade as a 17-game starter in 2021, but he is also a complete one-year wonder who has just 10 career starts and a career high 61.7 PFF grade for a season aside from his 2021 campaign. Now going into his age 33 season, it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, but he could at least be better in 2023 than he was in 2022.

At center and left tackle respectively, veterans Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins are locked into starting roles again this season. Morse has been a solid starter throughout his 8-year career, making 109 total starts and exceeding 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, but his 61.4 PFF grade in 2022 was a career worst and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining, in which case he would likely end up as a below average starter, even if only slightly.

Dawkins is the best of the bunch, making 89 starts in six seasons in the league, since going in the second round in 2017, and finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 69.9, 73.4, 78.1, 77.5, and 73.5 in those six seasons respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Dawkins should remain an above average starting option in 2023. This offensive line will probably be better than a year ago, but this is still an underwhelming group overall, even with Dion Dawkins elevating this group by himself.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to their impressive offense, which ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA last season, the Bills also had a strong defense in 2022, ranking 4th in defensive DVOA. It’s much tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistently great on offense and defensive performance is much less predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but there are reasons that the Bills have a better chance to remain a high-level defense than most teams would. 

For one, the Bills also had an elite defense in 2021, ranking 1st in defensive DVOA, so last year wasn’t a fluke. The Bills also are bringing back most of their key players from a year ago, with 17 of their top-18 in terms of snaps played last season still on the team this season. The Bills also added some key players in free agency this off-season and should be better at some positions than they were a year ago and they should be healthier than a year ago, when they actually had the 2nd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense, excelling defensively despite several key absences.

One position group that should be better than a year ago is the edge defender group. Not only will they likely get a healthier year out of top edge defender Von Miller, who was limited to 450 snaps played in 11 games by injury last season, but they also added veteran Leonard Floyd in free agency on a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal to give them even more depth at the position. With 2021 1st round pick Greg Rousseau, 2020 2nd round pick AJ Epenesa, and 2021 2nd round pick Boogie Basham also in the mix, the Bills have a very deep group at this position.

If healthy, Von Miller has a good chance to remain the best of the bunch. There is some concern with Miller being in his age 34 season and coming off of a major injury, but the future Hall of Famer has surpassed a 79 grade on PFF in all 12 seasons in the league, with a whopping eight seasons over 90, and he didn’t show any real signs of decline before his injury last season, with a 85.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, not far off from his career pass rush stats of 123.5 sacks, 133 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate in 162 career games. 

Between his age and his significant injury, there’s a good chance Miller declines at least somewhat in 2023, but he’s declining from such a high level that he has a good chance to remain one of the better players in the league at his position, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past, and the Bills should benefit from having him likely be more available than he was a year ago, even if it’s possible he isn’t quite ready to return in week 1.

If Miller isn’t the Bills’ top edge defender this season, it will probably have more to do with the performance of Greg Rousseau in his third season in the league than Miller declining significantly. Rousseau has been limited to snap counts of 531 and 463 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but that was partially because he missed four games with injury in 2023 and he’s impressed when on the field, with a 70.2 PFF grade as a rookie and then a 83.6 PFF grade in year two, when he had 8 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate, despite his limited playing time. He probably won’t get a ton of playing time in 2023, even if he does continue improving, just because this is a very deep position, but the first round pick has a ton of upside and his third season in the league could end up being his best year yet.

Basham and Epenesa could also take a step forward in 2023, though they don’t nearly have the upside that Rousseau has. Basham has only played 589 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league in a very deep position group, but he’s received decent grades of 62.2 and 66.4 from PFF and could take a step forward and/or see more playing time in his third season in the league in 2023. Epenesa is in a pretty similar situation, having only played 332 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and posting mostly middling grades, but having the upside to take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season, making him actually a year younger than Basham, even though Basham was drafted the year after Epenesa.

The veteran Floyd came relatively cheap in free agency, but he should have a role even in this deep position group and he was a good value. Floyd has averaged 895 snaps played per season over the past five seasons and has 47.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 104 games in seven seasons in the league, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. Last season, he had a 65.7 PFF grade across 932 snaps with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and 11.2% pressure rate. He’s in his age 31 season now, but he also figures to see his snap count cut probably by about half in Buffalo, which should keep him fresher and allow him to be more efficient as he ages, so he should still be a useful part of their edge defender rotation, barring an unexpected massive drop off. 

Floyd’s presence will likely force veteran Shaq Lawson off the roster, just purely in a numbers game, but he wasn’t bad with a 61.8 PFF grade on 467 snaps last season and he’s mostly been a useful rotational edge defender in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, while playing an average of 489 snaps per season, so, even if he’s unlikely to make their final roster, he’s still good insurance to have if someone gets hurt between now and the start of the season. This is arguably the best edge defender group in the league, with high level talent in Von Miller and Greg Rousseau, as well as great depth. 

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Bills bring back their top-4 in terms of snaps played last season, DaQuan Jones (643 snaps), Ed Oliver (526 snaps), Tim Settle (372 snaps), and Jordan Phillips (347 snaps). Jones and Oliver figure to remain the starters after solid seasons in which they had PFF grades of 72.6 and 68.5 respectively. That wasn’t out of the ordinary for those two either. Jones has played an average of 630 snaps per season over the past eight seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He’s at his best against the run, but also has a decent 6.1% pressure rate for his career. The concern with him is he’s going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off somewhat in 2023, he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starting option.

Ed Oliver, meanwhile, has been inconsistent against the run in four seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019, but he’s consistently been an above average pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 62 career games, and he’s coming off of a career best 68.7 grade against the run in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starting option with above average interior pass rush ability.

The Bills depth options were underwhelming last season, with Settle and Phillips finishing with PFF grades of 53.8 and 52.2 respectively, but the Bills did make an addition at this position this off-season that should improve their depth, with veteran Poona Ford coming over from the Seahawks on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal, which could be a steal. Ford comes cheap because he finished last season with a career worst 56.2 PFF grade on 642 snaps, but the 2018 undrafted free agent had a 90.3 PFF grade on 231 snaps as a rookie, a 73.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 2019, a 81.9 PFF grade on 670 snaps in 2020, and a 73.0 PFF grade on 802 snaps in 2021, so he has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 28 season, especially since he is unlikely to have to play the same snap count as he did in his final seasons in Seattle. 

Throughout his career, Ford has been at his best against the run, but he also has a solid 6.4% pressure rate for his career and should be a useful, well-rounded reserve for this team. The Bills also could get a better year out of Tim Settle, who exceeded 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to joining the Bills last off-season. He only averaged 252 snaps per game in those four seasons, but the Bills won’t need much more than that from him in 2023 and, still only in his age 26 season, the 2018 5th round pick has obvious bounce back potential. 

Jordan Phillips is probably the worst of the bunch, as he’s been below 60 on PFF in all but one of his eight seasons in the league and is now heading into his age 31 season, but the Bills won’t need much, if anything from him in 2023 with Ford being added and, as mediocre as he’s been overall in his career, he does have a decent 7.4% career pressure rate, with his poor run defense usually being the cause of his mediocre overall grades. This is a pretty solid position group overall, one that should have better play from their reserves than they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one key player from last year’s defense that the Bills didn’t retain this off-season is linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds had a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in 13 games and there’s no way around the fact that losing him is a big deal, but this is still a very talented defense even without him, with likely better health than a year ago and the additions of Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford on the defensive line. Even the Bills’ linebacking corps is still in good shape without Edmunds, with other top linebacker Matt Milano (73.7 PFF grade across 946 snaps) still on the roster and a pair of intriguing young players who will compete to replace Edmunds, 2022 3rd round pick Terrel Bernard, who flashed some potential in very limited action as a rookie (111 snaps), and this year’s 3rd round pick, Tulane’s Dorian Williams.

Both Bernard and Williams are raw and are obviously projections to larger roles and, even if they do pan out, they are highly unlikely to be as good as Edmunds was a year ago, but they’re not bad options either and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if whoever wins that position battle ended up being at least a capable starter. Milano, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in three of the past five seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022, and he’s averaged 55.5 snaps per game in those five seasons, including 60.1 snaps per game over the past two seasons, so he’s more than capable of being a top every down linebacker, still only in his age 28 season.

The Bills also still have Tyrel Dodson, who was technically their third linebacker a year ago, playing 220 snaps in just 8 games, but he struggled mightily with a 48.4 PFF grade and the 2019 undrafted free agent has never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF for a season, while playing just 471 snaps total in his career, so he’s probably not a realistic starting option, even with Edmunds gone. Losing Tremaine Edmunds obviously hurts, but, even without him, this is not a bad linebacking corps and the Bills have more than enough talent at other positions to make up for the loss of Edmunds.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group that should benefit most from being healthier this season is the Bills’ secondary, which saw talented safety Micah Hyde go down for the season in week 2 and only got 307 snaps in six games out of expected top cornerback Tre’Davious White, who did not look like himself after a late season return from a torn ACL suffered late in the 2021 season, finishing the 2022 season with just a 61.9 PFF grade in his limited action. 

Hyde will almost definitely play more games in 2023 than a year ago and he had finished above 75 on PFF in four of his previous five seasons prior to the injury, so his return will be very much welcome, even if he could start to decline, now in his age 33 season. Meanwhile, White has a great chance to bounce back, another year removed from the injury, still only in his age 28 season, with three seasons over 75 in coverage grade on PFF in his five seasons in the league prior to 2022.

Hyde will start next to Jordan Poyer, also a long-time above average safety, who is also getting up there in age, in his age 32 season. Poyer could easily start declining this season, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 74.2, 75.2, 78.2, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively, with just five games missed over that stretch, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he starts declining this season, he’s declining from a high enough level that he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive decline.

At cornerback, in addition to likely a healthier year out of Tre’Davious White, the Bills should also get a better year out of Kaiir Elam, who was a first round pick in 2022, but struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade on 477 rookie year snaps, failing to secure a consistent starting role (six starts), despite the absence of White. Elam has the potential to be a lot better in year two though and is probably the favorite to start opposite White. 

The Bills also have a solid slot cornerback in Taron Johnson, who has exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 68.3 PFF grade on a career high 969 snaps in 2022. Johnson can play outside, in addition to on the slot, which he did more than ever last season, so he’s also a candidate to start next to White, with Elam coming in as the third cornerback when Johnson moves to the slot, but Johnson is at his best on the slot and the Bills would probably prefer to let him focus on that.

With Hyde and White expected to be healthier, Damar Hamlin (845 snaps) and Dane Johnson (830 snaps) are expected to move back to reserve roles in 2023. Hamlin was actually decent with a 61.4 PFF grade last season, before his season ended in scary fashion when he collapsed during the Bills’ week 17 game against the Bengals, and assuming he can make a full recovery, the 2021 6th round pick is a solid reserve option. In addition to last season’s decent performance in a starting role, Hamlin also flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in 2021, albeit on just 50 snaps.

Dane Johnson, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.5 PFF grade in his extended action last season and, as a result, he is probably not a real candidate to compete with Elam and Taron Johnson for a top-3 job, but the 2020 7th round pick was decent depth on snap counts of 193 and 482 in his first two seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve cornerback. The Bills also have 2022 6th round pick Christian Benford, who saw 363 rookie year snaps and, at times, played ahead of the much higher drafted Kaiir Elam, but Benford too struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade and would be best as a reserve option as well. This secondary should be much better than a year ago with White and Hyde likely to be healthier and Kaiir Elam expected to be better in his second season in the league. This is a deep and talented group overall.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Bills have been one of the better teams in the league over the past three seasons, finishing in the top-4 in DVOA in all three seasons, including back-to-back seasons in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. They have a good chance to do that again in 2023, with minimal key losses on either side of the ball this off-season. Losing Tremaine Edmunds hurts their defense, but they should be much healthier on that side of the ball this season, with Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tre’Davious White being the most noteworthy players who will almost definitely be more available this season, and they added a pair of key rotational players on the defensive line in Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford, so they could easily remain a top defense in 2023, even without Edmunds. 

The Bills haven’t broken through and won or even made the Super Bowl yet, and the AFC is even better this year, so they will have a tough path out to that elusive Super Bowl appearance, but they have as good of a chance as any team to win the AFC and, if they do that, they would almost definitely be favored in the Super Bowl over any team in the weaker NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East

New England Patriots 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

During the 19 seasons Tom Brady spent as the starter in New England from 2001-2019, the Patriots had unparalleled success, winning 36 more regular season games, 15 more post-season games, and 4 more Super Bowls than any team during that stretch, winning the ultimate prize a whopping 6 times total. However, the Patriots’ drafts got increasingly worse during Brady’s final seasons in New England and, while they continued to have success in the win column, including a Super Bowl victory during the 2018 season, they did it with increasingly aging and expensive rosters and, with the Patriots’ possessing minimal financial flexibility after years of borrowing future cap space and an aging core, Brady decided during the 2020 off-season that he would have an easier time winning with the Buccaneers and left New England, famously winning his 7th Super Bowl in his first season in Tampa Bay.

In the Patriots’ first season without Brady, they seemed to embrace the full rebuild, opting to use the year to reset their cap for the future, leaving them with a roster that had the 3rd lowest total average annual salary in the league, a metric that correlates heavily with winning percentage. They gave a contract barely over the minimum to reclamation project Cam Newton as a replacement for Brady and hoped for the best out of an underwhelming roster, with an eye on having among the league’s most cap space the following off-season.

Cam Newton was underwhelming, rushing for 4.32 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 137 carries, but managing just a 82.9 QB rating as a passer. However, the Patriots did manage to win seven games, while ranking 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in offensive DVOA, which was probably the most they could have hoped for out of that roster, with long-time head coach Bill Belichick making the most he could out of the situation. For comparison, the only two teams with a lower total average annual salary that season than the Patriots finished with a combined record of 3-29. 

The following off-season, the Patriots spent heavily in free agency to rebuild the roster and used a first round pick on quarterback Mac Jones to replace Cam Newton. Their free agent class was a mixed bag, but Jones impressed in his rookie season, starting all 17 games and completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (92.5 QB rating), while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF and leading this offense to a 9th ranked finish in DVOA. The Patriots secured a wild card spot at 10-7 and their 3rd ranked point differential and 4th ranked overall DVOA suggested they were even better than that record in the regular season. However, they were embarrassed in the wild card round by their division rival Buffalo Bills, who have become the dominant team in this division since Brady’s departure during the 2020 season.

From there, things only got worse. The Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the head coaching job in Las Vegas last off-season and, without any good in-house alternatives, after years of offensive assistant departures, and with Belichick unwilling to make an outside hire, the Patriots ended up with long-time defensive assistant Matt Patricia and long-time special teams coach Joe Judge running the show on offense. The Patriots finished the year with a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA for the second straight year, but their offense plummeted to 24th in DVOA, leading to the Patriots finishing 15th overall in DVOA and with just a 8-9 record, outside of the post-season. 

Mac Jones especially regressed significantly, dropping to 65.2% completion, 6.78 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while totaling a 84.8 QB rating and a 67.5 PFF grade. He also missed time with injury early in the season and at one point seemed to fall behind 4th round rookie Bailey Zappe on the depth chart. Zappe impressed early on in Jones’ absence and finished with a 100.9 QB rating and a 67.1 PFF rating on 92 pass attempts, but he mostly faced a very weak schedule of defenses and the job eventually went back to Mac Jones for good after Zappe struggled mightily in a loss to the league worst Bears.

With the Patricia/Judge combination predictably failing, Bill Belichick’s ability to win post-Brady has come into question and Belichick has gone just 25-25 in the three seasons since Brady’s departure, with no playoff wins, but I think they’ve gotten more out of their roster than they should have in two in those three seasons, with last season being the exception. The bigger problem has been Belichick’s decision making in the front office, which has been a problem for this franchise since the final years of the Brady era. 

This off-season was another head scratching one from a personnel standpoint, with the Patriots opting not to make any splash signings, even at positions of need, despite having the financial flexibility to do so. Overall, the Patriots have the lowest average annual value of their roster this season and they are expected to have the most cap space in the league next off-season, suggesting the Patriots view this as another rebuilding year, or at least a transition year, where they don’t have realistic expectations of competing for a championship.

The Patriots did at least make one big addition this off-season, bringing back former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to give them an offensive coordinator that has the familiarity with this organization that Belichick likes, while also being a massive upgrade over Patricia and Judge. That alone should give them a boost on offense and, while it’s tough to play at a consistently high level on defense, the Patriots are coming off back-to-back top-4 finishes in defensive DVOA, they still have as good of a defensive coaching staff as any team in the league, led by Belichick himself, who remains a defensive mastermind, and they bring back 19 of their top-20 in terms of defensive snaps played from a year ago, so they have a good chance to remain one of the better defenses in the league, even if they aren’t quite as good as they have been in the past two seasons. 

Given their improved offense and their strong defense, it might seem like the Patriots, who were close to a wild card berth last season despite all of their offensive problems, will be able to qualify for the post-season this time around and they should at least have a shot, but their schedule, division, and conference are much tougher than a year ago and they still have concerns on offense around Mac Jones, even if he bounces back. Jones will probably have to have his best season yet in 2023 for the Patriots to legitimately contend in the AFC and it’s unclear how much upside the physically limited Jones has long-term. This isn’t a bad quarterback room, especially with Zappe at least looking like a solid backup long-term, but it might not be good enough for this team to legitimately compete in the loaded AFC, given the other questions around the quarterback position on this offense. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this offense is the offensive tackle position, which was a weakness last year, even with Trent Brown playing all 17 games and posting a 67.4 PFF grade, after missing 24 games over the previous three seasons combined. With Brown now going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will stay that healthy two years in a row and he could decline even when on the field, after finishing in the 60s or 70s in terms of PFF grade in all 8 seasons in the league. 

Despite Trent Brown’s age, injury history, and their lack of other good options at the position, all the Patriots did to address this need this off-season was signing Riley Reiff, who is in his age 35 season, and Calvin Anderson, who has 12 starts in four seasons in the league, with a max of 7 starts in a season. With the Patriots unwilling to spend big on significant upgrades, Reiff and Anderson signed contracts worth 4 million over 1 year and 7 million over 2 years respectively. Along with the only other holdover from a year ago, Conor McDermott, Reiff and Anderson will compete for the starting right tackle job opposite Trent Brown and the two losers of that battle will compete for the swing tackle job, which could easily become a starting job, given Brown’s age and injury history. 

Reiff has finished 60 or higher on PFF in all 11 seasons in the league, with seven seasons over 70, but the 67.5 and 64.5 PFF grades he’s had the past two seasons are middling, he’s made just 22 starts over those two seasons because of injuries and underwhelming performance, and his age is a big concern, so he could easily regress further or get injured more this season. Still, I would consider him the favorite for the right tackle job, given the alternatives. Anderson has flashed potential over the past two seasons, with 72.5 and 65.0 grades on PFF, but he has just 10 starts across those two seasons and is a former undrafted free agent, so he’s a projection to a larger role and probably doesn’t have that much upside. 

Conor McDermott, meanwhile, has just 12 starts in 6 seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2017, he’s never been more than a middling player even in limited action, and he’s already in his age 31 season. The 2-year, 3.6 million dollar extension the Patriots kept McDermott on this off-season is even less than what they paid for Reiff and Anderson, so I would consider him the 4th tackle, with Anderson likely to be the first option off the bench if Reiff wins the right tackle job as he’s likely favored to. This is a pretty thin offensive tackle group, with a pair of shaky expected starters and inexperienced options without much upside behind them on the depth chart.

The Patriots did add on the interior of this offensive line this off-season using 4th round picks on Eastern Michigan guard Sidy Sow and Troy center Jake Andrews and a 5th round pick on UCLA guard Atonio Mafi, but none of them are expected to start in year one, barring injuries. Left guard Cole Strange was a first round pick in 2022 and, despite a mediocre rookie year with a 54.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job because he has the upside to take a big step forward in year two, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

Center David Andrews was significantly better with a 74.5 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he now heads into his age 31 season, which is why Jake Andrews was drafted as insurance and a potential long-term replacement. David Andrews has finished above 70 on PFF in all but one of his last six seasons as a starter and has 100 total starts in 8 seasons in the league, so he would be declining from a relatively impressive prime even if he did drop off, but there’s a good chance he’s not as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, even if he remains a solid starter.

Right guard Michael Onwenu will probably be their best offensive lineman and he has the versatility to kick out to right tackle if they need him to, with one of the rookies then likely stepping into his spot on the interior, but Onwenu made all 17 starts at right guard last season, finishing with a 79.3 PFF grade that ranked 4th among guards and the Patriots probably want to keep him there, even if he does have the versatility to move outside. 

Onwenu was only a 6th round pick in 2020 and entered his first two seasons in the league as a reserve, but because of injuries to starters, Onwenu made 24 starts total in those two seasons (8 at guard and 16 at tackle) and posted impressive 84.3 and 87.0 grades on PFF, so his 2022 season was not at all a surprise and, still only in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, regardless of where he plays. He elevates this offensive line significantly by himself and, overall, the Patriots are much better on the interior than at tackle, but their durability, age, and depth concerns at tackle are still a big problem.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Patriots’ receiving corps is also a concern. They signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a contract worth 25.5 million over 3 years, but that was at best a lateral move to replace Jakobi Myers, who had a 75.6 PFF grade, a 1.90 yards per route run average, and a 67/804/6 slash line in 2022, leading the team as a solid, but underwhelming #1 wide receiver. Smith-Schuster is similar, but probably a downgrade, averaging 2.12 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league as the #2 wide receiver opposite Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, but averaging just 1.45 yards per route run in four seasons since, as the de facto #1 wide receiver with the Steelers and then last season with the Chiefs. 

Smith-Schuster’s 1.77 yards per route run average in 2022 was his best since his second season in the league in 2018, but he also had the benefit of playing with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback and still did worse from a yards per route run standpoint than Meyers, even with Meyers playing in a much worse passing game. Even if Mac Jones and this passing game are better in 2023 than they were a year ago, I would expect Smith-Schuster to be below his 2022 mark in yards per route run and possibly well below where Meyers was.

The Patriots should get more of out of Kendrick Bourne in 2023, who has 1.77 yards per route run in two seasons in New England, but played fewer snaps (441) than Nelson Agholor (474) or Tyquan Thornton (526) in 2022, even though they averaged just 1.23 and 0.76 yards per route run. Bourne should have played more and would have if not for what seemed like a personal beef between him and Matt Patricia. Now with Patricia gone I would expect Bourne to have a bigger role in this passing game in 2023, which should benefit this offense, given how efficient he’s been over the past two seasons.

Agholor is also gone, which is addition by subtraction, given how much he struggled last season, and the Patriots are hoping for more out of Tyquan Thornton, who also struggled mightily last season, but who was only a rookie and who could take a step forward in year two. The 2022 2nd round pick still has a lot of upside, despite his rookie season struggles, and will at least compete for a starting job with Kendrick Bourne and fellow veteran Devante Parker, with Smith-Schuster almost definitely locked into a starting role given the contract the Patriots gave him. 

Parker wasn’t bad last season with a 1.71 yards per route run average and the 8-year veteran has a 1.67 yards per route run average for his career, but he’s also missed at least 2 games in 6 of those 8 seasons, with 24 games missed total, and, in part due to that, he has only surpassed 800 receiving yards once in his career. Now in his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could start to regress noticeably this season. He’s not a bad starting option, but he is unlikely to be much more than a middling starting option even when on the field.

The Patriots are also hoping to get more out of their tight ends this season to mask some of their issues at the wide receiver position. Two off-seasons ago, they spent big, giving contracts worth 37.5 million over 3 years and 50 million over 4 years respectively to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Henry had a solid first season in New England with a 50/603/9 slash line and a 1.50 yards per route run average, but that fell to 41/509/2 and 1.21 yards per route run in 2022, while Smith was primarily utilized as a blocker and was never given a big passing game role, despite his salary and a decent 1.64 yards per route run average across the past two seasons.

Henry was retained this off-season and the Patriots are hoping for a bounce back for a player with a 1.55 yards per route run average for his career and who is still only in his age 29 season, but even if he does bounce back, he’s unlikely to be the high level tight end the Patriots are paying him to be. Smith, meanwhile, was traded to the Falcons in essentially a salary dump this off-season, which freed up space for the Patriots to replace him with former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki, who they gave a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal to in free agency.

A 2nd round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, Gesicki had solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, with slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 respectively and a combined 1.52 yards per route run average between the two seasons, leading to the Dolphins franchise tagging him for the 2022 season at 10.931 million, but new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel deemphasized the tight end position in the passing game and Gesicki was limited to a 32/362/5 slash line and a 1.02 yards per route run average last season as a result. Gesicki is still only in his age 28 season and has the potential to bounce back in a more tight end centric offense in New England, so the Patriots were smart to buy low on him, getting him for less than half what he made last season on the franchise tag. Like the rest of this receiving corps, Gesicki is not a #1 option, but the Patriots at least have some decent options in the passing game.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Top running back Rhomandre Stevenson was actually second on this team in targets with 88 last season, only behind Jakobi Meyers’ 96 targets, but Stevenson was pretty inefficient, averaging just 4.78 yards per target, and that target total figures to drop significantly with a better offensive scheme and receiving corps that should be deeper than a year ago. Stevenson will still retain a passing game role though, after averaging 1.54 yards per route run as the #2 back as a 4th round rookie in 2021 and 1.24 yards per route run last season.

Stevenson also could easily have more carries than a year ago, when #2 back and former starter Damien Harris took 106 carries, which he turned into a 4.36 YPC average and 3 touchdowns. Stevenson, meanwhile, turned his 210 carries into 4.95 YPC and 5 touchdowns, after a 4.56 YPC average and 5 touchdowns on 133 carries as a rookie. Including what he does in the passing game, Stevenson has finished with PFF grades of 79.2 and 81.3 respectively across his first two seasons in the league.

Harris wasn’t really replaced this off-season, with 2022 4th round pick Pierre Strong (51 rookie year snaps) likely to take over as the #2 back and being unlikely to have the same workload as Harris did a year ago, so the opportunity is there for Stevenson to be a true feature back on the ground, in addition to his passing game work. He might not be quite as efficient as he’s been the past two seasons, but he figures to be among the better running backs in the league this season.

Strong isn’t a bad backup either, even if he probably won’t have that big of a role unless Stevenson gets hurt. Strong only had 10 carries as a rookie, but he did have an impressive 10.0 YPC average, buoyed by a 44-yard carry, and he was an effective pass catcher in college, with 42 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, before impressing with a 1.91 yards per route run average in a very limited passing game role as a rookie (7 targets). 

The Patriots also have 2022 6th round pick Kevin Harris, who only played 53 snaps as a rookie and, unlike Pierre Strong, did not impress in his limited action, but he could contribute more in year two and isn’t a bad #3 back. This backfield will go as Rhomandre Stevenson goes, but Stevenson has the potential to be among the best all-around running backs in the league this season and their backup options aren’t bad, with Pierre Strong in particular having significant potential.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots have had a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA in back-to-back seasons and, while it is tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense, with defensive performance being significantly less predictive than the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots return all but one key contributor from a year ago and still have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the league, led by head coach Bill Belichick, who remains one of the best defensive minds in the game. The Patriots probably won’t be as healthy on defense as a year ago, when they finished with the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league, but this defense is good enough that they can sustain more injuries than a year ago and remain one of the better units in the league, even if they don’t end up being quite as good as a year ago.

One player who should actually be healthier this season is top interior defender Christian Barmore, who was limited to just 327 snaps in 10 games by injury. Barmore still played pretty well when on the field, struggling as a run defender, but excelling as a pass rusher, totaling 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, carrying over his play from his rookie season, when he also struggled against the run, but totaled 1.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while playing 598 snaps in 17 games in a healthier season than 2022. Barmore is still only in his age 24 season and the 2021 2nd round pick has the upside to make 2023 his best season yet if he can avoid further injury. Even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, the Patriots should benefit just from having him more available than a year ago.

With Barmore not healthy for much of the season, the Patriots were led in snaps played at the interior defender position by Davon Godchaux (659 snaps), Lawrence Guy (504 snaps), and Daniel Ekuale (362 snaps), all of whom were pretty mediocre. Godchaux is usually a solid run defender, but he also has a career 4.9% pressure rate, while finishing below 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons in the league, and last season he even struggled against the run, leading to him finishing with an overall 53.1 PFF grade. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, he should have some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be a solid base package player, but he will remain a liability in sub packages, on the rare occasions he plays in obvious passing situations. 

Lawrence Guy was a solid, well-rounded player in his prime, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, on an average of 518 snaps per season, with three seasons over 70, but he fell to 53.5 on 504 snaps in 2022 and now heads into his age 34 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He will likely retain a rotational role in 2023, but will probably continue struggling. Ekuale was probably the best of the bunch in 2022, with a decent 60.1 PFF grade, but that came on just 362 snaps and the 2018 undrafted free agent had never surpassed a 60 PFF grade for a season or 290 snaps in a season prior to last season, so he’s an underwhelming option that shouldn’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Christian Barmore is an impressive interior pass rusher and Godchaux has bounce back potential against the run, but this is a pretty underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Patriots may only have one interior defender who is a good pass rusher, but they make up for that with their depth on the edge and frequently play three edge defenders at once in sub packages, with one lining up on the interior. Matt Judon and Deatrich Wise were their starters at the edge defender position last season and both were every down players, seeing 858 snaps and 828 snaps respectively, while sub package pass rush specialist Josh Uche played 373 snaps with 87.4% of those snaps coming on pass plays. All three of those players remain on this team for 2023.

Wise is usually the one lining up on the interior in sub packages when Uche comes in, but despite frequently playing on the interior, where it’s tougher to get pressure on the quarterback, Wise still finished last season with 7.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, while also holding up against the run and finishing the season with a 74.9 PFF grade overall. Last year was by far a career high in snaps played for Wise, who had never exceeded 565 snaps in his career prior to last season, but it wasn’t his first solid season, as he had PFF grades of 68.8, 70.6, and 64.8 in the three seasons prior to last, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, and he probably won’t have to play as many snaps this season, with the Patriots using a 2nd round pick on a similar hybrid defensive lineman, Georgia Tech’s Keion White, who has a high upside and figures to see a role as a rookie.

Judon was their best free agent signing during their big spending spree two off-seasons ago, signing on a 4-year, 54.5 million dollar deal that he has been well worth. His run defense has been inconsistent, but he more than makes up for that with his pass rush, with 28 sacks, 29 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 34 games in two seasons in New England. Prior to joining the Patriots, Judon also had 22.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 46 games in his final three seasons in Baltimore, so he has been a consistently high level pass rusher for several years. He’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline, but he should remain at least an above average edge rusher, barring an unexpected massive dropoff.

Uche was actually the most efficient pass rusher of the bunch last season, totaling 11.5 sacks and 3 hits, despite his limited playing time, with a ridiculous 19.7% pressure rate. Uche was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed a lot of potential in limited action in his first two seasons, playing 414 snaps in 21 games (82.1% on pass plays) and totaling 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate, so his 2022 season didn’t come out of nowhere, even if it was by far the best season of his career. Uche might not be quite as efficient in 2023 as he was a year ago, but he could easily remain a very effective player in sub packages, still only his age 25 season. With promising rookie Keion White being added to an already deep group, this is one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Things aren’t changing much for the Patriots in the linebacking corps this season, with Jawhaun Bentley (907 snaps) and Jahlani Tavai (570 snaps) remaining their top-2 linebackers, although both are coming off of career best seasons that they might struggle to repeat. Bentley has always shown potential, since being drafted in the 5th round in 2018, surpassing 65 in PFF in four of five seasons in the league, but 2022 was a career high for him in terms of snaps played (his previous high was 693) and he also posted a 80.4 PFF grade that ranked 9th among eligible off ball linebackers, the highest ranked finish of his career. 

Bentley is only in his age 27 season and should remain at least an above average every down linebacker, but he might not be able to repeat the best year of his career for the second straight year. Tavai, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2019 by the Detroit Lions and was decent with a 59.7 PFF grade on 616 rookie year snaps, but that plummeted to a 32.1 PFF grade on 624 snaps in year two and then he was cut by the Lions and barely played in year three in his first season in New England, limited to 57 snaps total, before breaking out with a surprising 73.5 grade in a part-time role in 2023.

Tavai won’t have to play more than a part-time role in 2023, barring an injury to Bentley, as the Patriots frequently use a safety as a second linebacker in sub packages, which I will get more into later, but even in a primarily base package role, Tavai could struggle to repeat the best year of his career. I would expect him to remain at least a capable base package player, but I would guess the combination of him and Jawhaun Bentley will take a step back overall this season.

Another thing that will be different in this linebacking corps this season is reserve Raekwon McMillan (250 snaps) being lost to a season ending injury in the off-season. That isn’t a big loss, considering McMillan’s limited playing time and that he had just a 42.7 PFF grade, but the Patriots are hurting for depth at this position, with their top reserve likely to be Mack Wilson, who also struggled in limited action last season, with a 47.1 PFF grade on 234 snaps. 

Wilson was a 5th round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 25 season, so it’s possible he has some untapped upside, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, despite mostly being a reserve (an average of 435 snaps played per season in his career) so he would likely struggle if forced into significant action by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart and he’s a pretty underwhelming depth option. The Patriots also used a 3rd round pick on Sacramento State linebacker Marte Mapu, who will also provide depth, but who also would likely struggle in a big role, at least as a rookie, given how raw of a prospect he is. This is still a solid linebacking corps, but Bentley and Tavai are unlikely to both be as good as they were a year ago and depth is a concern if either of those two get injured.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The one key defensive player the Patriots lost this off-season was safety Devin McCourty, who retired ahead of what would have been his age 36 season. That’s not a small loss though, as McCourty still had a 70.0 PFF grade and led all Patriots defensive backs with 1,097 snaps played in his final season in the league in 2022. McCourty’s absence is especially concerning, given how important the safety position is in this offense, with a third safety frequently lining up as a linebacker in sub packages. 

To replace McCourty, the Patriots will have a pair of hybrid defensive backs, Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant, see more action at safety, after mostly playing cornerback last season, and they added Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round of the draft to replace the vacated snaps at cornerback. Mills and Bryant are mediocre options though, so, in McCourty’s absence, the Patriots’ top safeties will be Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips, who received PFF grades of 78.4 and 72.7 respectively on 752 snaps and 702 snaps respectively last season, and they are likely to give more action to Jabrill Peppers, who only saw 398 snaps last season, but recorded a 75.0 PFF grade. 

Dugger has the most upside of the bunch and is the leading candidate to replace McCourty long-term, as the 2020 2nd round pick has seen his PFF grade increase from 64.1 to 71.8 to 78.4 in three seasons in the league, but he has yet to play an every down role, he has missed two games with injury in each of his three seasons in the league and, as a result, the 752 snaps he played last season are a career high. Still only in his age 27 season, the upside is there for Dugger to be an above average every down player and he could have his best year yet in 2023, but he’s a slight projection to a larger role.

Adrian Phillips has also never been a true every down player, maxing out at 883 snaps played in a season in 2021, which was the only time he had exceeded 750 snaps in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons and he has been especially good in the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 87.6, 66.2, 80.5, and 72.7 in those seasons respectively. Phillips is now in his age 31 season and could start to decline, but he figures to see close to an every down role and has a good chance to remain an above average option, barring a massive decline.

Jabrill Peppers, meanwhile, is a 2017 first round pick who played an average of 797 snaps per season in his first four seasons in the league, before an injury plagued 2021 season (11 games missed) and a 2022 season in which he was mostly a reserve. He’s exceeded 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, with a pair of seasons over 70, so he should be a solid option in what should be an expanded role for him in 2023. Like Dugger and Phillips, Peppers is a versatile player who can play linebacker in sub packages. All three of them figure to have significant roles and line up in multiple different spots this season.

Mills and Bryant, as I mentioned, are much more underwhelming options. Bryant went undrafted in 2020 and has been middling at best on snap counts of 156, 405, and 689 in three seasons in the league as a hybrid safety/cornerback, with a mediocre 58.4 PFF grade in the most action of his career in 2022, when he was mostly a cornerback. Mills, meanwhile, is a 7-year veteran who has finished below 60 on PFF in four of those seven seasons, including a 44.6 PFF grade on 468 snaps in 2022. Mills has been better at safety than at cornerback in his career, but he’s still a mediocre safety option. Neither he nor Bryant should see more than a deep reserve role, but it’s possible one or both see at least somewhat significant action, especially if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the rookie Gonzalez figures to start right away opposite veteran Jonathan Jones, who is their de facto #1 cornerback. Jones has exceeded 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being an injury plagued 2021 season, and he finished last season with a 68.1 PFF grade on a career high 914 snaps, after mostly being a slot specialist earlier in his career. Now in his age 30 season, Jones probably is what he is at this stage of his career, a solid, but unspectacular starter, and he could start to decline, but most likely he’ll remain at least a capable starting option.

Along with adding Gonzalez in the first round of this year’s draft, the Patriots also used 3rd and 4th round picks on Marcus Jones and Jack Jones in the 2022 NFL Draft and both showed significant potential as rookies. Marcus Jones is only a slot specialist at 5-8 188, but he posted a 67.6 PFF grade on 371 rookie year snaps, while Jack Jones was even better with a 74.7 PFF grade on 434 rookie year snaps, and he has the ability to play outside if needed. However, off-the-field problems and issues with the coaching staff cloud Jack Jones’ long-term projection and, while he might not be suspended at all this season, I would expect him to open the season outside of the starting lineup, as the 4th cornerback at best. He’s good insurance to have though, in a secondary that doesn’t have a lot of top level talent, but that is pretty deep and overall above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Patriots offense should be better by default this season, with Bill O’Brien coming in to give them a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator, and, with minimal changes on defense, that side of the ball should remain an above average unit, even if it would be hard for them to be as healthy and as good as they were last year again this year. Unfortunately, the Patriots’ conference has gotten so much tougher this off-season and numerous other AFC teams look noticeably better than them on paper, as the Patriots still have several significant concerns on offense. Add in that the Patriots play in the toughest division in football and will have one of the toughest schedules and it will be an uphill climb for the Patriots to even sneak into a wild card, despite a pretty solid roster. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 4th in AFC East

Baltimore Ravens 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Quarterback

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson burst onto the scene in his first season as a starter in 2019. A polarizing prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, with unparalleled athleticism, but legitimate accuracy questions, Jackson showed both of those things as a rookie, when he made seven starts and played situationally in the other nine games. Overall, he completed just 58.2% of passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, but he also rushed for 4.73 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 147 carries. However, in year two, he improved drastically as a passer and became the ultimate dual threat, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 36 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, while still dominating as a runner, with 1,206 yards and 7 touchdowns on 176 carries (6.85 YPC), receiving a 91.1 PFF grade and leading a talented Ravens team to a 14-2 record, en route to winning the NFL’s MVP award. 

The Ravens fell short in a divisional round loss to the Titans, but that was primarily because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and went 0 for 4 on 4th downs, which tend to be unpredictable week-to-week, so that loss didn’t seem to be cause for long-term concern, especially with Lamar Jackson still being so young and the rest of this team looking like it would provide Jackson with a strong supporting cast for years to come. In the three seasons since Jackson’s dominant 2019 campaign, he has remained good, but he has yet to match the level he reached in his MVP season, totaling 63.7% completion, 7.27 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while rushing for 2,536 yards and 12 touchdowns on 404 carries (6.28 YPC) and receiving grades of 81.5, 70.2, and 85.2 respectively from PFF. 

More concerningly, Jackson’s last three seasons have all ended with him getting injured. He was mostly healthy in 2020, with his only missed game being because of COVID, but he suffered a concussion in an eventual post-season defeat to the Bills and then finished the 2021 and 2022 seasons both on injured reserve, missing five games in each season and not making any playoff starts in those two seasons, as Jackson’s absence caused the Ravens to fall out of the post-season in 2021 and Jackson then wasn’t healthy enough to play in the Ravens’ eventual post-season loss to the Bengals in 2022.

Jackson still had a 26-13 regular season record when healthy across those three seasons, as opposed to 3-8 in his absence, so there is no denying his importance to this team, but there were long-term concerns about his ability to stay healthy, given that his playing style exposes him to more hits than most quarterbacks. Beyond that, the track record of dual threat quarterbacks continuing to play at a high level into their 30s is pretty limited, as they tend to be unable to compensate for their declining athleticism as they age, especially if they have a significant injury history. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, but he was set to be a free agent this off-season, so the Ravens had a big decision to make on whether or not to give him a top of the market long-term deal, despite the aforementioned long-term concerns. The Ravens originally franchise tagged him, but that seemed like a way to buy themselves more time in negotiations rather than a legitimate sign they didn’t believe in him long-term, as teams around the league were very hesitant to make Jackson a long-term offer, knowing the Ravens would almost certainly utilize their right to match any deal signed by their franchise tagged player. Ultimately, the Ravens and Jackson agreed to a 5-year, 260 million dollar deal that makes him the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing and includes 185 million guaranteed, while keeping Jackson under team control through the 2027 season.

Still, even with the Ravens committing to Jackson long-term, they clearly are not satisfied with the results of the past few seasons and felt it was necessary to make some major changes to this offense this off-season. The most notable one was letting go of offensive coordinator Greg Roman, originally credited for building the scheme around Jackson that best utilized his athleticism, and replacing him with Todd Monken, much more of a traditional offensive coordinator. 

Roman’s history of work with mobile quarterbacks is impressive, previously coaching Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor to the best seasons of their careers, but the Ravens felt his scheme had become stale and predictable and, with Jackson getting older and increasingly more injury prone, the Ravens wanted to throw the ball more this season and be less reliant on Jackson taking off and running. Hiring a more traditional, pass-heavy offensive coordinator helps them accomplish that goal.

Whether this proves to be the right approach remains to be seen. While keeping your most important player healthy is obviously a worthwhile goal, Jackson’s rushing ability is what makes him special and makes life easier for him as a passer, as teams usually have to take a player out of coverage to spy him. On top of that, Monken isn’t that accomplished of a play caller at the professional level so there is definitely risk in replacing Roman with him. Jackson will still take off and run more than most quarterbacks this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 183 carries per 17 games he had averaged over the past four seasons be cut in half in 2023 and it remains to be seen how that will affect his overall game.

One change the Ravens didn’t make this off-season was trying to find a better backup quarterback than Tyler Huntley, who has been underwhelming in Jackson’s absence over the past two seasons, completing 65.7% of his passes, but for just 5.80 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while receiving mediocre grades of 62.0 and 57.8 respectively from PFF as a passer. Huntley does have an average of 4.79 YPC on 90 carries over those two seasons, but he probably won’t be as good of a scheme fit for the Ravens’ new offense as he was in the Ravens’ old offense because of his limitations as a passer, so it was a little surprising that the Ravens didn’t look that hard for an alternative this off-season. 

This offense has a very high upside if Jackson takes well to the new scheme and stays mostly healthy, but the scheme change could also prove to be a mistake and/or Jackson could miss another significant chunk of time with injury, leaving underwhelming backup Tyler Huntley in a very tough situation. I’d still rather have Lamar Jackson and this Ravens’ quarterback room than most teams’ quarterback rooms, but there are some reasons for concern here.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from the coordinator and scheme change, the biggest change on this offense this off-season were the additions they made to their receiving corps, a necessity for the more pass-heavy style they plan to play this season. Previously, this team didn’t value the wide receiver position highly, as their run-heavy offense focused it’s limited passing game primarily on tight end Mark Andrews, who has averaged 2.21 yards per route run with an average 84/1048/9 slash line per 17 games in four seasons since the 2018 3rd round pick became an every down starter in his second season in the league, perhaps not coincidentally the year Lamar Jackson took a big step forward as a passer. 

Andrews is only in his age 27 season and figures to remain a big part of this offense, but they will need more contributions from their wide receivers, after having just two seasons of 600 yards or more by a wide receiver over the past four seasons respectively, none of which were last season, when their leading wide receiver had just a 48/458/2 slash line. They used first round picks on wide receivers in 2019 and 2021 respectively, taking Marquise Brown and then Rashod Bateman, but Brown was traded last off-season, returning a first round pick after a promising start to his career, in which he had both of the Ravens’ 600+ yard receiving seasons by a wide receiver over the past four seasons, while Bateman has been limited to 1.51 yards per route run and 19 games played in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and inconsistency.  

However, Bateman still has upside in his third season in the league if he can stay healthy and the Ravens used another first round pick on a wide receiver in this year’s draft, taking Boston College’s Zay Flowers, another promising young wide receiver, in addition to signing veteran Odell Beckham to a fully guaranteed 1-year, 15 million dollar deal. Bateman and Flowers have upside, but it seems like the Ravens will mostly be relying on Beckham as their top option, given the salary they paid him. 

In his prime, Beckham was a #1 wide receiver, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a year he mostly missed with injury. However, Beckham has missed a lot more time over the past three seasons, missing 29 of 50 games in the past three seasons with two separate ACL tears, including an entirely lost 2022 season, and he’s only averaged 54/693/7 slash line per 17 games with 1.45 yards per route run when on the field over that stretch. Beckham should be healthier now over a year and a half from his most recent injury, but he’s also now going into his age 31 season and, even if he stays healthy, which is far from a guarantee, his best days are almost definitely behind him. Given that, his contract seems like an overpay, but he should still be a useful contributor to an improved wide receiver group.

The Ravens also still have Devin Duvernay, who was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but has mostly struggled in his career, with 0.95 yards per route run, and they signed veteran journeyman Nelson Agholor, who has lasted into now his 9th season in the league in 2023, but who has also mostly struggled in his career, with 1.19 yards per route run, and who is now going into his age 30 season. They’re not terrible depth options, but both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart.

At tight end, Andrews will be backed up by Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, a pair of 2022 4th round pick. Likely played 412 snaps last season and had a decent 36/373/3 slash line with 1.39 yards per route run and Kolar also flashed in limited action, playing just 36 snaps, but posting a 74.8 PFF grade and averaging 1.81 yards per route run. Both could see more playing time with blocking specialist Josh Oliver no longer with the team, after a season in which he played 561 snaps and had a 74.0 PFF grade as a blocker, but only averaged 1.02 yards per route run. He’ll be missed as a blocker, but Likely and Kolar are probably better fits for this new pass-heavier offense. The Ravens are still better at tight end than they are at wide receiver, but they’re wide receiver group is improved and at least has more upside than a year ago, while their tight end group is one of the best in the league, making this an above average overall receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Even with this team being run-heavy in recent years, there haven’t been that many carries available for running backs, with Jackson leading the team in rushing in four straight seasons and leading the team in carries in three straight seasons. Last year, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were supposed to be their top-2 backs, but injuries limited them to 92 carries in 8 games and 87 carries in 9 games respectively, as they struggled to return from injuries that also cost them all of 2021. Edwards and Dobbins missing significant time last season left Kenyan Drake, a veteran journeyman signed right before the start of the season, to lead Ravens running backs in carries with 109. 

Drake took those carries for 4.42 YPC and 4 touchdowns, which doesn’t sound that bad, but life has been much easier for running backs in this offense in recent years because defenses have to worry about Jackson faking the handoff and running with it himself, so those are actually pretty unimpressive numbers. That’s especially true when you compare them to the 4.98 YPC and 5.65 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins averaged respectively last season and the 5.16 YPC and 5.86 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins have averaged in 5 seasons and 3 seasons respectively with the Ravens, on carry totals of 501 and 226 respectively.

Edwards and Dobbins should be healthier this season, with minimal injury history outside of the major injuries they suffered now two years ago, and Drake wasn’t retained as a free agent, but the Ravens did also sign veteran Melvin Gordon as insurance, so Dobbins and Edwards won’t get the backfield totally to themselves. Since Dobbins joined the team as a 2nd round rookie in 2020, he has averaged 9.83 carries per game, as opposed to 9.24 carries per game for Edwards over that stretch and I would expect a similar split of work between the two this season, perhaps with Dobbins earning more work over the former undrafted free agent Edwards. 

Gordon, meanwhile, will likely be the third running back on the depth chart. He was a solid running back in his prime, but he has surpassed 1000 yards rushing just once in 8 seasons in the league, he has just an underwhelming 4.12 YPC average for his career, and that dropped to 3.53 YPC last season, a big concern with Gordon now going into his age 30 season, which tends to be when running backs are close to done. The Ravens aren’t paying him much, as his “1-year, 3.1 million dollar contract” sounds like it is mostly incentives, but for the Ravens’ sake, hopefully Edwards and Dobbins stay healthy and Gordon doesn’t have to be higher than third on the depth chart.

Running backs have never caught many passes from Lamar Jackson, with an average of 52 catches by running backs per season since Lamar Jackson’s first season as the full time starter in 2019 and Dobbins and Edwards have especially been limited in the passing game, with 25 catches in 23 career games and 18 catches in 52 career games respectively. Even with this team becoming more pass-heavy, I don’t expect that to change significantly this season. Neither Edwards (0.62 career yards per route run) nor Dobbins (0.56 career yards per route run) have any real history of success on passing downs and Jackson doesn’t have much need to dump off to running backs in the passing game, given his ability to scramble when he gets in trouble.

Melvin Gordon has more of a track record in the passing game, with a 1.28 yards per route run average for his career, and he will probably be their primary passing down back, which is probably the main reason they signed him, but even he is unlikely to have a significant target share in this offense, which tends to be the case for running backs on offenses with mobile quarterbacks. This is a solid backfield overall, but they will need Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to be healthier than a year ago and much of the success that running backs have had on this offense in recent years can be credited to the threat of Jackson taking off and running, which also tends to be the case on offenses with mobile quarterbacks.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the Ravens investing their resources in re-signing Lamar Jackson long-term and getting him better pass catching options this off-season, they didn’t have enough to keep starting left guard Ben Powers, who signed a 4-year, 51.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos as a free agent this off-season. Powers only had a 62.9 PFF grade last season, but the Ravens didn’t really add a replacement this off-season, only using a 6th round pick on Oregon’s Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, who is unlikely to start as a rookie and almost definitely would struggle if forced to.

The most likely candidate to replace Powers is Ben Cleveland, who went in the 3rd round in 2021, but was mediocre with a 55.8 PFF grade on 367 snaps as a rookie, before playing just 92 snaps in year two last season. He still has upside and could develop into a solid starter, but he’s obviously a projection to a larger role and, even if he develops into a solid starter long-term, he could still struggle in his first season as the starter. 

The Ravens also have veteran Patrick Mekari, a versatile offensive lineman who has never been a season long starter, but who has made 29 starts in 4 seasons in the league, 16 at tackle, 3 at guard, and 10 at center, while receiving grades of 70.5, 66.9, 66.1, and 73.3 from PFF. He’s also a projection to a season-long starting role, but he is probably a safer option than Cleveland because he’s much more experienced and proven. If he doesn’t win the starting job, he will remain a very valuable reserve and figures to see action somewhere at some point, one way or another. The Ravens also have 2022 4th round pick Daniel Faalele as a depth option, though the massive 6-8 380 pound tackle had just a 50.2 PFF grade across 169 rookie year snaps.

The rest of this offensive line should be the same as a year ago, which is a good thing because the Ravens finished last season ranked 2nd on PFF in both team pass blocking grade and team run blocking grade. However, there is some concern with a pair of aging starters who could decline this season, right guard Kevin Zeitler and right tackle Morgan Moses. Both had above average seasons in 2023, receiving PFF grades of 74.0 and 78.1 respectively in 15 starts and 17 starts respectively, and both could struggle to repeat those seasons again in 2023.

Zeitler is the older of the two, going into his age 33 season. He’s been one of the better guards in the league throughout his career, surpassing 70 on PFF in 10 of 11 seasons in the league (166 starts), and, even if he declines, he would likely remain at least a solid starter, but his age is a concern. Moses, meanwhile, is going into his age 32 season and has made 130 starts in the past eight seasons as a starter, surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He also likely would remain at least a solid starter even if he declined, but, like Zeitler, I would expect him to be at least a little worse than a year ago.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are younger and both should have strong seasons again in 2023. Center Tyler Linderbaum was only a rookie last season, but the 25th overall pick finished as PFF’s 6th ranked center overall with a 74.7 PFF grade. He has the upside to develop into one of the best centers in the league long-term and, even if he doesn’t take another step forward in year two, I would expect him to at least remain at least an above average starter.

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in 2016. The early part of his career was very promising, as he finished his first four seasons in the league with PFF grades of 74.8, 75.1, 77.5, and 88.5 respectively, while making 56 total starts, with his 2019 grade ranking 3rd among offensive tackles that season, but injuries have limited him to just 18 games in three seasons since. He’s still played pretty well when on the field, including a 70.9 PFF grade in 11 games (602 snaps) last season and the worst of his injuries seem to be behind him, but he’s yet to come close to his career best 2019 season and there’s a good chance he never repeats that season, even if he manages to stay healthier going forward. 

Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Stanley should remain at least an above average starter when on the field, but there’s a better than average chance that he ends up missing more time at some point. This is still a strong offensive line, but I wouldn’t expect them to be quite as good as last year, having lost left guard Ben Powers and with a pair of starters on the right side of this offensive line being on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Ravens had a strong defense a year ago, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, which is especially impressive when you consider they also had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury on that side of the ball. The Ravens should be healthier on defense this season, but they did lose some key players this off-season, so they won’t necessarily be better as a result of being healthier. One key loss this off-season is interior defender Calais Campbell, who had a PFF grade on 548 snaps last season, playing well both as a run defender and a pass rusher (5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate). 

The Ravens do get Michael Pierce back from injury, after he played just 91 snaps in 3 games last season, while the rest of this interior defender group should be the same as a year ago, with Justin Madubuike (655 snaps), Broderick Washington (482 snaps), Travis Jones (322 snaps), and Brent Urban (298 snaps) all remaining on this roster. Durability has been an issue throughout Pierce’s career, as the big 6-0 355 pounder has never played more than 594 snaps per game in a season, and it’s especially been a problem in recent years, as he sat out the 2020 COVID season and then has been limited to just 11 games over the past two seasons since returning. 

Pierce has played the run at a high level throughout his career, surpassing 80 in run defense grade on PFF in three of six active seasons in the league and surpassing 70 in five of six seasons, including a 74.3 PFF grade last season, but he also has a pretty impressive 7.5% pressure rate, so he isn’t just a big run defender. He’s now going into his age 31 season and hasn’t been quite as good in recent years as he was earlier in his career, even when on the field, which, coupled with all of the time he has missed in recent years, is a concern, but if he can stay relatively healthy this season, he should remain at least a useful rotational player, with the upside for more if he can stay healthy and turn back the clock.

The rest of this bunch are mostly young players and, because of that, they have the upside to be better this year than a year ago. Justin Madubuike was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has mostly been a middling player throughout his career, but he’s seen his snap count increase from 259 to 482 to 655 in his three seasons in the league and he’s a pretty well-rounded player, providing solid run defense, while also contributing a decent 6.6% pressure rate. He should continue playing a similar snap count in 2023 as he did in 2022, which should lead this position group again, and, still only in his age 26 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2023 was his best season yet.

Travis Jones was a 3rd round pick last year and flashed some potential as a rookie, albeit on just 322 snaps. Still, he should play more snaps this season and has a good chance to take a step forward in year two. Broderick Washington is the least impressive of the bunch, going in just the 5th round in 2020 and struggling on snap counts of 161 and 293 respectively in the first two seasons of his career, but he took a step forward in 2022, with a 69.5 PFF grade on 482 snaps. He might not have a high upside, he could easily remain at least a useful rotational player.

Brent Urban isn’t young, but he also could have a role as a deep rotational player. He was a useful reserve early in his career, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of the past four seasons, while averaging just 268 snaps per season and maxing out at 370 snaps in a season. Now in his age 32 season, he’s not even a lock to make this roster, but he could see some action if he makes the team. Losing Calais Campbell hurts this group and, while Michael Pierce should be healthier, he’s also on the wrong side of 30 with an extensive injury history, but the Ravens do at least have some promising young players at this position.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Ravens lost Justin Houston, who only played 397 snaps last year, but who had a 73.6 PFF grade and who especially excelled as a pass rusher, with 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Like Calais Campbell, Houston is an older player, going into his age 34 season, and the Ravens also have some promising young players at this position, so they didn’t feel the need to bring Houston back. The Ravens also didn’t bring back Jason Pierre-Paul, who played 524 snaps last season and who was also heading into his age 34 season in 2023, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 6.8% pressure rate, so he won’t be missed, especially given the young talent they have at this position.

Odafe Oweh was their first round pick in 2021 and he had a promising rookie season, with a 67.9 PFF grade on 615 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, but he regressed in a pretty big way in year two, falling to a 56.8 PFF grade on 633 snaps, while totaling just 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate. Oweh is only in his age 25 season and still has a big upside, so I would expect him to bounce back at least somewhat in year three and it’s possible he could end up having his best year yet this season.

David Ojabo was a second round pick in 2022, but he almost definitely would have been a first round pick, possibly a top-15 selection, if not for a torn achilles that he suffered during the pre-draft process. Ojabo returned to play 21 defensive snaps late last season, but, other than that, his whole rookie season was lost. However, now a full year and a half removed from the injury, Ojabo could easily show why he was seen as such a good prospect before getting hurt. He’s obviously unproven, but his return to health could be big for this position group.

The Ravens should also get a healthier year from Tyus Bowser, who tore his achilles in week 18 of the 2021 season and, as a result, was limited to 355 mediocre snaps in 9 games in 2022. Bowser only had a 56.4 PFF grade last season, while totaling just a 7.7% pressure rate, but he had three straight seasons in the 70s prior to his injury, while averaging 587 snaps per season over that stretch. Also an above average run defender, Bowser totaled 14 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate while playing all 49 possible games during those three seasons and, now another year removed from the injury, only in his age 28 season, Bowser has obvious bounce back potential. 

Boswer might not bounce all the way back to his pre-injury form, but he easily could and, even if he doesn’t, he will almost definitely give them more than he gave them a year ago. The Ravens also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Mississippi’s Tavius Robinson, who figures to at least have a deep reserve role at a position group that has promise, but that is also pretty thin and that doesn’t have a lot of experience overall, hence why a raw mid-round rookie is expected to have a role, with the rest of this position group behind him consisting of former undrafted free agents with no real NFL experience.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Ravens don’t have any big off-season departures or players returning from injury at the off ball linebacker position, but they should get more out of every down linebacker Roquan Smith, who only played 533 snaps in 9 games last season for the Ravens because he was only acquired at the trade deadline. The Ravens gave up a second round pick and eventually gave Smith a 5-year, 100 million dollar extension (highest average annual value among off ball linebackers) to keep him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and prior to joining the Ravens he had been a solid, but unspectacular player. However, the former 8th overall pick broke out in his new home, posting a 84.7 PFF grade in his half season with the Ravens to give him a 70.6 PFF grade on the season, 28th best among off ball linebackers.

Smith is a one-year wonder, or even a half-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s always had a huge upside, he’s still only going into his age 26 season, and, even if he regresses, he should still have a good chance to remain an above average every down player. Smith’s presence cost fellow starting linebacker Patrick Queen some playing time, but Queen’s shift in role seemed to benefit him, as the 2020 1st round pick had a 76.7 PFF grade in the 9 games he played alongside Smith, as opposed to 29.7, 43.5, and 59.8 in his first season in the league, second season in the league, and the first half of third season in the league respectively. 

That second half improvement wasn’t enough for the Ravens to pick up Queen’s 5th year option, which would have guaranteed him 12.722 million in 2024, and the Ravens may have found his long-term replacement in the draft in Clemson’s Trenton Simpson, who they selected in the third round, but Queen should still remain a starter in 2023 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner as a player and remained at least a solid starter. 

Simpson, meanwhile, will likely only play a reserve role, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. 2020 3rd round pick Malik Harrison is also a reserve option. He’s been unspectacular in that role in his first three seasons in the league, on an average of just 228 snaps per season, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could still have untapped upside, and the Ravens are unlikely to need much out of him in a relatively deep position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In the secondary, the Ravens lost starting cornerback Marcus Peters (734 snaps in 13 games) and starting safety Chuck Clark (1,091 snaps in 17 games) this off-season, after both had solid seasons with PFF grades of 67.7 and 66.0 respectively. Peters will likely be replaced by free agent addition Rock Ya-Sin, who has been solid for most of his 4-year career, finishing in the 60s on PFF in three of those seasons, but who has also missed 14 games with injury and has never been a full-time starter, only starting 38 of his 52 games played, with a maximum of 13 starts in a season, coming back in his rookie season in 2019. The former 2nd round pick is only in his age 27 season and could still develop into at least a capable starter, but he’s not as reliable as Peters and there’s a reason he was available for only a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal. 

Assuming he wins the job, Ya-Sin would start opposite #1 cornerback Marlon Humphrey, a 2017 first round pick who has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and probably the best player on this Ravens defense. Humphrey wasn’t a full-time starter in his first two seasons in the league and missed 7 games with injury in his next three seasons combined, before finally making all 17 starts for the first time in 2022, but he’s finished in the 70s on PFF in five of six seasons, including a 76.7 PFF grade last season that ranked 14th among cornerbacks. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, though it’s worth noting he’s probably a slightly higher injury risk than most players and might not play all 17 games for the second year in a row.

To replace Clark at safety, the Ravens will move second year player Kyle Hamilton, who was mostly a slot cornerback as a rookie, back to his natural position of safety, where he will play full-time as a starter next to Marcus Williams. Hamilton was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and flashed a ton of potential with a 82.3 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, so, even though he’s a projection to a full-time role, he could easily be an above average starter, with the upside to be one of the best safeties in the league long-term. 

Marcus Williams has the talent to be among the best safeties in the league as well and the Ravens should get a healthier year out of him after he missed seven games a year ago. Williams had a 73.9 PFF grade when on the field and that was still solid, but that actually was the worst of his 6-year career, during which he has surpassed 80 on PFF in three seasons. He had also only missed five games with injury in the five seasons prior to last and, only in his age 27 season, he should be healthier and has bounce back potential in 2023. He and Hamilton have the upside to be among the best safety duos in the league.

Replacing Hamilton as the primary slot cornerback is the biggest question in this secondary. The Ravens could continue to run a lot of 3-safety looks in sub packages, with Hamilton retaining his old role as the primary slot cornerback and one of Geno Stone or Brandon Stephens stepping in the other safety role, or they could use free agent acquisition Arthur Maulet, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, or 5th round rookie Kelly Kyu if they want to use more of a traditional 3-cornerback look. 

Geno Stone is probably their best option. He was only a 7th round pick in 2020 and played just 221 nondescript snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he wasn’t bad in that limited action and took a step forward in year three, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on 450 snaps. He’s still pretty unproven, but could easily remain a useful sub package player. Brandon Stephens, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and might have more upside than Stone, but so far he’s struggled throughout his career, with PFF grades of 53.0 and 52.5 respectively on snap counts of 742 and 452 respectively.

If the Ravens want to use a more traditional 3-cornerback look, Arthur Maulet is probably their best option, though that’s mostly by default. Maulet has played 404 snaps per season over the past four seasons, mostly as a slot specialist, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of those four seasons, including a 56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps in 2022, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he will almost definitely remain a below average option. 

Armour-Davis entered the league with significant potential and could still develop into a useful player long-term, but he was horrendous with a 28.2 PFF grade on 50 rookie year snaps and has a long way to go towards even being a capable 3rd cornerback. Meanwhile, the rookie Kelly Kyu will almost definitely be overmatched if forced into a significant role in year one. This secondary has good top end talent with top cornerback Marlon Humphrey and top safety Marcus Williams both being among the best in the league at their respective positions and with the promising young Kyle Hamilton possibly on his way to being that as well, but depth is at least somewhat of a concern, especially in sub packages.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Ravens have been among the best teams in the league over the past four seasons when they have starting quarterback Lamar Jackson healthy, but that has increasingly not been the case late in the season when it counts. In an effort to keep Jackson healthier longer as he ages, the Ravens are changing their offensive philosophy in a significant way this off-season. It’s a plan with a lot of potential, if Jackson can stay healthier and become a more productive passer, but it’s also a gamble, considering how well the old scheme fit Jackson’s skill set. 

This should remain one of the better teams in the league as long as Jackson is healthy, but there’s risk here as well, given the scheme change and Jackson’s injury history, and the Ravens play in the loaded AFC, where other teams seem like safer bets to go on a long run to the Super Bowl. A playoff spot seems likely at the very least, barring catastrophe, but it won’t be a surprise at all if they suffer another first or second round exit. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 3rd in AFC North