Detroit Lions (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

This one is a tough call. The Chiefs are only 4.5-point home favorites, which if they were at full strength would be way too low, but they also enter the season already missing some key personnel. All-Pro interior defender Chris Jones continues to hold out for a better contract. Talented edge defender Charles Omenihu is suspended. And making matters even worse, by far their most important offensive weapon Travis Kelce seems likely to miss this game after suffering a knee injury in practice two days prior to kickoff.

If Kelce plays at something close to full strength, we’re probably getting a little bit of line value with the Chiefs against a Lions team that enters the season with a lot of hype because of a near playoff appearance with a young roster a year ago, but that also hasn’t proven they are worth the hype yet and that could disappoint now that they have real expectations. The Chiefs also have the benefit of being at home for the first time since winning the Super Bowl, a spot teams are 12-5-1 ATS in since 2005. 

However, the Chiefs are likely to be cautious with their star tight end, given how important he is to their long-term goals and that they’ll have 10 days off to rest him after this game, so it’s hard to take the Chiefs with any confidence. I would take the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes because I liked them before the Kelce injury and I think this line has adjusted appropriately (down from Kansas City -6.5) and I might bump this up to a low confidence pick if Kelce seems like he’s going to end up playing and the line doesn’t move significantly, but for now this is a no confidence pick and I can’t see myself betting on the Chiefs regardless of Kelce’s status.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Detroit Lions 26

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -4.5

Confidence: None