Denver Broncos (1-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

Unlike the last few Thursday Night Football games, I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. Big home favorites tend to do well on a short week, as it’s very tough for a vastly inferior team to keep a game close on a short week, but that tends not to be the case in divisional matchups (double digit divisional favorites are just 6-6 ATS on a short week) as two teams being familiar with each other tends to cancel out the effect of the short week. The Broncos haven’t had much success against the Chiefs lately, losing 15 straight matchups against them dating back to 2015, but I’m not sure how much that matters because rosters and coaching staffs change all the time and a lot of those wins have been relatively close, with 9 of those 15 games decided by a margin that would fail to cover this 10.5-point spread, including 4 of the past 5. 

The Chiefs have been the significantly better team this season, with a significant advantage in yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.18), first down rate differential (+4.73% vs. -4.66%), and DVOA (6th ranked 25.5% vs. 30th ranked -30.9%), but the Broncos are healthier than they were earlier in the year, with talented safety Justin Simmons and talented middle linebacker Josey Jewell both returning last week. My calculated line still has the Chiefs favored by 12, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, even if they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10.5

Confidence: Low