Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7)

Typically the rule of thumb with Thursday Night Football is to take the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as it’s a non-divisional game, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless they’re facing a familiar divisional foe or facing an inferior opponent that they are favored over. In total, teams are 47-31 ATS as non-divisional home favorites on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest and that trend is especially strong when the team is favored by a field goal or more, going 36-23 ATS, which applies here, with the Bears favored by a field goal.

It might seem crazy that this 2-7 Bears team which is starting a backup quarterback would be favored by a field goal over anyone, but the Panthers have been that bad and have significant injury issues of their own. Already missing top cornerback Jaycee Horn, talented safety Jeremy Chinn, and top linebacker Shaq Thompson, the Panthers now without top edge defender Brian Burns for the first time this season, which actually leaves them without their expected top-4 edge defenders, with Justin Houston, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Marquis Haynes also out.

The Bears have a significant edge in weighted DVOA (-20.8% vs. -33.6%), first down rate differential (-1.05% vs. -3.06%), yards per play differential (-0.25 vs. -0.99%), and, with both teams’ injury situations factored in, as well as the Bears’ recent addition of Montez Sweat, the Bears have a 4-point edge in my roster rankings. The Bears also have an edge in SIC score (80.6 vs. 77.4), which measures the value of the injured players for both teams. With all that in mind, my calculated line has the Bears favored by 4.5 points, so, when you add in the good spot the Bears are in on a short week, the Bears are worth a small bet this week.

Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Medium