New England Patriots (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

If this were a Sunday or Monday game, I wouldn’t have interest in betting this game, as this line, favoring the Steelers by 5.5 points at home, is about right, with these two teams about three points apart in my roster rankings. However, on a short week, the Steelers have a huge advantage as significant home non-divisional favorites, with teams going 24-14 ATS in that spot when favored by 4 or more points. Going on the road on a short week and facing a superior opponent outside of the division is a very tough situation. The Steelers are also coming off of a loss, which tends to be a good spot for them in the Mike Tomlin era, going 54-41 ATS, including 4-0 ATS this season. This isn’t a big bet because this should be a low scoring game, but I still like the Steelers chances of winning by at least 6 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 New England Patriots 6

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5.5

Confidence: Medium