Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

This might sound crazy since the Chargers were blown out by 42 points last week against the mediocre Raiders, but I actually like the Chargers a good amount this week, as 12.5-point home underdogs against the Bills, a big shift from -9.5 on the early line last week, prior to the Chargers’ blowout loss. The Chargers’ blowout loss last week was largely the result of poor effort and a -5 turnover margin and I expect both of those to be better this week. Teams tend to bounce back after a blowout loss, covering at a 62.4% rate as underdogs after a loss of 35 or more points, as teams tend to be embarrassed and overlooked in that spot, and that should especially be true of the Chargers, who saw head coach Brandon Staley fired over the past week. 

On top of that, turnover margins tend to be very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams with a turnover margin of -5 or worse, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week, leading to underdogs of more than a touchdown covering at a 59.5% rate after a turnover margin of -5 or worse the previous week. The Bills, on the other hand, are coming off of a huge win over the Cowboys and probably won’t bring their best effort for the Chargers. We’re not getting much line value with the Chargers, who are one of the worst teams in the league without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, who remain out, and my calculated line is Buffalo -11.5, but I like the spot the Chargers are in enough to place a small bet on them against the spread, in a game that should be closer than most expect.

Buffalo Bills 26 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +12.5

Confidence: Medium