San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) in Super Bowl LVIII

The 49ers were by far the better of these two teams in the regular season, finishing the year with a +1.64 yards per play differential, a +6.50% first down rate differential, and a +39.4% DVOA, as opposed to +0.82, +3.55%, and +17.9% for the Chiefs. These two teams have been more even in the post-season, with the Chiefs having a -0.31 yards per play differential and a +2.87% first down rate differential, as opposed to +0.15 and -2.47% for the 49ers, but the 49ers are only slight favorites in this Super Bowl matchup, favored by 2.5 points, and the 49ers big advantage in their regular season numbers suggests they should be favored by more than that, even with both teams being more even in the post-season. The 49ers also have a 4.5-point edge in my roster rankings.

However, Patrick Mahomes has been close to an automatic bet as an underdog in his career, with a 10-1 ATS record and a 9-2 straight up record. I ignored this because it was still a small sample size and took the Bills as 2.5-point favorites and the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs in the Chiefs’ last two games, but it’s becoming apparent that Mahomes should be picked against the spread every time he’s an underdog unless there’s a good reason not to, much like the quarterback he’s often compared against Tom Brady, who went 36-17 ATS and 31-22 straight up in his career as an underdog.

The Chiefs also have the experience edge in this game, with head coach Andy Reid having been to four previous Super Bowls as a head coach and Patrick Mahomes having been to three, as opposed to one Super Bowl appearance as a head coach for 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan and none for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. On top of that, Andy Reid has been a strong bet in his career as a head coach when given an extra week to gameplan, going 36-24 ATS against the spread. The Chiefs aren’t worth a big bet unless we can get a full field goal against the spread with them, but at the very least the money line seems like a good value at +115.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

Confidence: Low