Quarterback

The Colts surprisingly contended for a playoff spot in 2023, finishing 9-8 and ranking 20th in DVOA, a year after finishing 4-12-1 and dead last in the NFL in DVOA. Their offense was the biggest reason for their turnaround, as their defense actually fell from 13th in DVOA to 20th, while their offense went from dead last to 13th. The quarterback position was a huge problem for the Colts in 2022, ranking 29th in team QB rating at 79.2, leading to the Colts selecting quarterback Anthony Richardon with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but their turnaround last season was not as a result of Richardson.

In fact, Richardson was mediocre in just four starts before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Considered a raw prospect as a passer coming into the league, Richardson showed it in his limited action, with 59.5% completion, 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, though he did also show his athleticism as a runner, rushing for 126 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries (5.44 YPC). In Richardson’s absence, veteran Gardner Minshew was the starter and he provided some stability at the position, but ultimately was underwhelming and, to the extent he deserves credit for the Colts being better offensively last season, it’s only because he was better by default than what the Colts had at the position in 2022.

Minshew’s stats don’t look bad, as he completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but they’re not great either and he finished the season just 34th among 45 eligible quarterbacks on PFF with a 62.0 grade. Minshew wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by another veteran Joe Flacco. Flacco was better in 2023 than Minshew was, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while receiving a 74.2 PFF grade, but that came in just 5 starts after being signed by the Browns mid-season. It was also his best PFF grade since 2014 and came after a 8-year stretch from 2015-2022 in which he completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 6.35 YPA, 84 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions. Now going into his age 39 season, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2024 if forced into action as he was in a small sample size in 2023.

The Colts will be hoping Flacco doesn’t have to see significant action and remains nothing more than an insurance option, with Richardson set to take back his starting job, now healthy going into his second season in the league. It’s tough to know what to expect from Richardson in 2024, given how raw he was entering the league and how little he played as a rookie. He has a huge upside, but also a huge potential downside, giving the Colts one of the biggest ranges of potential outcomes at the quarterback position of any team in the league. 

Richardson’s playing style also exposes him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, so there’s a better than average chance that he misses more time. Because of all of that, the Colts are one of the most difficult teams in the league to predict in 2024. If Richardson can play up to his potential and stay healthy, this team has enough talent on both sides of the ball to be contenders, but it’s also possible that he’s a downgrade from Minshew and the Colts, who already weren’t quite as good as their record suggested last season, regress in terms of win total as a result. I’m going to grade the Colts’ quarterback room based on an average of the best case and worst case scenario, but the range of outcomes is huge here.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Regardless of how he plays, expect this offense to look different in 2024 than it did in 2023, when the Colts had a balanced approach with 574 passing attempts (18th in the NFL) and 479 rushing attempts (11th in the NFL). With Richardson taking off and running often, I would expect the Colts to be close to the top of the league in rushing attempts and close to the bottom of the league in pass attempts. That should overall have a negative effect on the production of this group of receivers.

Kept this off-season on a 3-year, 70 million dollar extension after being franchise tagged, Michael Pittman should remain the #1 option, as he has been for the past few years, leading the team in receiving in three straight years with slash lines of 88/1082/6, 99/925/4, and 109/1152/4, dating back to the 2020 2nd round pick’s second season in the league in 2021. Over that stretch, Pittman has averaged 1.79 yards per route run, despite less than stellar quarterback play. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect a similar average per route this season, possibly a little higher or a little lower depending on how Richardson turns out to be, but his overall receiving total will probably go down as the number of routes he runs likely decreases, barring a massive breakout as a passer by Richardson.

Josh Downs, a 2023 3rd round pick, finished second on this team in receiving yardage with a 68/771/2 slash line last season, despite playing significantly fewer snaps (1,090 vs. 788) and running significantly fewer routes (605 vs. 483) than Alec Pierce, who only totalled a 32/514/2 slash line, averaging just 0.85 yards per route run, as opposed to 1.60 for Downs. Now going into his second season in the league, I would expect Downs to take on a bigger role at Pierce’s expense, which could lead to Downs’ receiving yardage total increasing, even on a more run heavy offense.

Pierce, meanwhile, still has upside as a 2022 2nd round pick, but his career has not gotten off to a good start with a 1.02 yards per route run average. In addition to Downs likely seeing a bigger role in 2024, the Colts also used 2nd and 5th round picks in this year’s draft on Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould and especially Mitchell could eat into Pierce’s playing time even further. Likely to see a smaller target share on a more run heavy offense, Pierce could see a significant decrease in his receiving yardage total in 2024, even if he himself happens to take a step forward as a player. 

The Colts are not nearly as deep at the tight end position and, with a lot of promising young talent at the wide receiver position on an offense that will probably be more run heavy this season, expect the tight end position to not be a big part of this offense in 2024, probably even less so than 2023, when Colts tight ends saw just 119 of 546 targets go their way (21.8% target share), with none receiving more than 50. Those targets were split among four tight ends that all saw playing time, which doesn’t include Jelani Woods, a 2022 3rd round pick who flashed potential with a 25/312/3 slash line and a 1.51 yards per route run average as a rookie, before missing all of 2023 with injury. 

In Woods’ absence, playing time went to Kylen Granson (496 snaps), Mo Alie-Cox (434 snaps), Andrew Ogletree (336 snaps), and Will Mallory (159 snaps), who all return in 2024 to compete for playing time with the now healthy Jelani Woods, who should at least be involved in the passing game, though he was mediocre as a blocker as a rookie. Mallory having the least playing time last season might make it seem like he’ll be the odd man out in the likely scenario that only four tight ends make the Colts’ final roster, but the 2023 5th round pick was actually the most efficient of the bunch in 2023 in a limited sample size, averaging 1.62 yards per route run while holding up decently as a blocker, so the Colts might want to keep the young tight end on their roster for another year to see how he develops.

Drew Ogletree (2022 6th round pick) and Kylen Granson (2021 4th round pick) are also both young players. Granson turned his position leading 50 targets into a 30/368/1 slash line and a decent 1.27 yards per route run average last season, in line with his career 1.26 yards per route run average. He probably will see fewer targets this season and he’s consistently struggled as a blocker in his career, but would seem to have a good shot to at least make the roster, if not see a significant snap total again. Ogletree, meanwhile, is much more likely to be the odd man out, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run last season, after not playing a snap as a rookie, and then getting into some trouble off the field this off-season. He was decent as a blocker last season, but that might not be enough to save his roster spot.

Mo Alie-Cox is the veteran of the bunch, going into his 8th season in the league and his age 31 season. He’s the best blocker of the bunch, which is useful given the type of offense this figures to be in 2024, but he’s averaged just 0.98 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined and his age is becoming a concern. The Colts can also save 5.92 million by cutting him this off-season, much more than they would save by cutting any of their other tight ends, so it’s possible the Colts move on and go with a complete youth movement at the tight end position. This is a very young receiving corps overall, but they at least have a lot of upside.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Colts’ offensive line was a big improvement from 2022 to 2023, ranking 23rd on PFF in pass blocking grade and 13th in run blocking grade in 2022, before ranking 6th in both pass blocking and run blocking grade in 2023, despite the fact that the personnel didn’t really change. The personnel remains largely the same in 2024 and their results figure to be closer to 2023 than 2022. Second year left tackle Bernhard Raimann was good as a rookie in 2022, but he was even better in 2023, finishing with a 82.7 PFF grade. Raimann was an old rookie and is already going into his age 27 season, which is why he fell to the third round, but he’s still in the prime of his career and should continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if it’s possible he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago. 

Center Ryan Kelly was also much better in 2023 than he was in 2022, jumping from a 64.3 PFF grade to a 77.2 PFF grade. In fact, his 2023 campaign was his highest PFF grade of his career, despite the fact that it was his 8th season in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, Kelly could start to decline soon and, even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again. He’s mostly been a solid starter in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven seasons and surpassing 70 in four seasons, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing at the level he played at in 2023.

Right tackle Braden Smith also had a career best PFF grade in 2023 with 83.3, but he also missed seven games with injury and he’s been close to that good in the past, exceeding 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Smith should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and, even if he isn’t as good as he was in 2023, he should more than make up for that by playing more games, which would be a big boost because his backup Blake Freeland had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps (nine starts, with two of those coming at left tackle when Raimann missed time). Aside from last season, Smith has only missed 10 games in his career, so he’s not that injury prone. 

The Colts also got better play at right guard. Not only did Will Fries improve slightly from a 58.4 PFF grade in 2022 to a 61.2 PFF grade in 2023, he also made more starts (17 vs. 9), which was a big boost because the Colts’ other starting right guards struggled mightily in 2022. Fries was only a 7th round pick in 2021 and has only been a marginal starter for one season, but he wasn’t that much worse in 2022 and has a good chance to continue being a marginal starter in 2024, only his age 26 season.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also was better in 2023 than 2022, improving from a 68.4 PFF grade to a 70.8 PFF grade, but that’s still a far cry from the player he was earlier in his career. The 6th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Nelson immediately broke out as one of the best guards in the league, receiving PFF grades of 79.7, 91.2, and 86.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he missed four games with injury in his 4th season in the league in 2021 and hasn’t been the same player since then, with last year being his best season since his first three seasons. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could have some bounce back potential, but it’s also very possible his best days are already  behind him.

Depth was a big issue for this group a year ago, with their top reserve tackle Blake Freeland and their top reserve interior offensive lineman Wesley French (48.4 PFF grade on 270 snaps) both struggling mightily. To try to improve this, the Colts used a 3rd round pick on tackle Matt Goncalves and a 4th round pick on guard Tanor Bortolini. Freeland and French still remain, but there is a chance that the rookies beat them out for the top reserve jobs, particularly Goncalves as the swing tackle. 

Freeland is also a 2023 4th round pick who could have some untapped upside and be better in year two, though French is only a 2022 undrafted free agent who could easily never develop into even a decent backup. Relying on rookies and unproven players, the Colts’ depth is a concern on the offensive line, but they at least have a solid starting five, with only center Ryan Kelly likely to regress significantly from last season’s performance.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts’ running game was effective in 2023, even without Anthony Richardson for most of the season, as they finished 10th in team yards per carry with 4.30. The Colts’ offensive line had a lot to do with that, but their running backs weren’t bad either. Zach Moss led the team in carries (183) and rushing yards (794), surprising considering he was a career backup with 301 carries in three seasons in the league prior to last season, while their other back Jonathan Taylor is a former rushing champion who the Colts extended on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal last season, making him the third highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

Moss out-producing Taylor happened because Taylor missed seven games with injury and was limited in terms of his effectiveness when he did play. He still was more effective than Moss on a per carry basis, with a 74.9 PFF grade (66.9 for Moss), a 4.38 YPC average (4.34 for Moss), and 3.12 yards per carry after contact (2.79 for Moss), and he scored 7 rushing touchdowns to Moss’ 5, but that was a far cry from what Taylor has done at his best. 

Taylor also was limited with injuries in 2022, rushing for 861 yards and 4 touchdowns on 192 carries (4.48 YPC) in 11 games and posting a 67.6 PFF grade, but he led the NFL in rushing in 2021, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) and a 87.1 PFF grade, and he also had an impressive season as a second round rookie in 2020, rushing for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) and posting a 83.9 PFF grade. 

Moss signed with the Bengals as a free agent this off-season, so this is entirely Jonathan Taylor’s backfield again, with only 2023 5th round pick Evan Hull (one carry as a rookie) remaining as a legitimate backup option. Durability remains a concern for Taylor, especially at a position with the most injury risk, but he’s still only in his age 25 season and has a lot of bounce back potential, especially with Richardson in the backfield with him to give this rushing offense another dimension. Running backs tend to have higher YPC averages when sharing the backfield with a mobile quarterback and that could benefit Taylor significantly if both he and Richardson can stay healthy.

The flip side of that is mobile quarterbacks don’t tend to throw to running backs often, as they can just take off and run with it themselves when there’s nothing open downfield, but pass catching has never been a big part of Taylor’s game anyway, with 123 catches in 53 career games and a career 1.03 yards per route run average. Taylor figures to play close to every down, with none of the Colts’ other running back options being legitimate pass catchers either, but I wouldn’t expect many targets to go his way. Still, the rushing upside is enormous for him, as a highly talented runner, sharing a backfield with a mobile quarterback, without a legitimate threat behind him for carries. If Taylor misses more time with injury, the Colts would be in trouble due to the lack of a legitimate backup option, but Taylor has as much upside as a runner as any running back in the league.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Without many pressing needs on offense, the Colts used their first round pick, 15th overall, on defense, the first team in this year’s draft to select a defensive player, in one of the most offense heavy first rounds of all time. It wasn’t surprising the Colts selected a defensive player, but the position was surprising, as the Colts took edge defender Laiatu Latu, rather than addressing what seemed to be more pressing needs elsewhere. The Colts ranked 5th in the NFL with 51 sacks last season and are just three years removed from using both first and second round picks on edge defenders, taking Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, who both saw significant roles last season (700 snaps and 623 snaps respectively), as did veterans Samson Ebukam (703 snaps) and Tyquan Lewis (437 snaps).

Paye and Odeyingbo had solid sack totals in 2023 with 8.5 and 8 respectively and the Colts picked up Paye’s 5th year option for 2025, but neither of them had good peripheral pass rush stats, with pressure rates of 6.8% and 7.9% respectively, in line with their career averages of 8.8% and 8.3% respectively. Paye excels as a run stopper, leading to a 74.3 PFF grade overall in 2023, after PFF grades of 69.5 and 69.7 in 2021 and 2022, despite his low pressure rate, which could be the biggest reason why his option was picked up, but Odeyingbo was not effective in that aspect either and has received grades of 61.4, 62.6, and 56.9 from PFF through three seasons in the league. 

With Latu coming in, both Paye and Odeyingbo will probably see smaller snap counts in 2024 and it seems unlikely that Odeyingbo will be extended ahead of the final year of his rookie deal in 2024. Odeyingbo also has good size at 6-6 286 and could play on the interior in pass rush situations more often this season, something he already did on occasion in 2023, as did the 6-3 267 pound Tyquan Lewis. Latu might not have a big rookie year role, but he at least adds even more depth to this group.

With Paye and Odeyingbo not having pressure rates that matched that sack totals in 2023, Samson Ebukam was their best edge defender, posting a 84.4 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It was a surprising season for Ebukam, a 2017 4th round pick who had never exceeded a 69.1 PFF grade in six seasons in the league prior to last season, while totaling just 23.5 sacks, 27 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Still only in his age 29 season, Ebukam is still theoretically in his prime, but it seems unlikely he’ll have by far the best season of his career again in 2024. 

There’s still a good chance Ebukam plays at an above average level this season, but I would expect him to regress, possibly significantly. Tyquan Lewis also had an impressive season in 2023, albeit in a smaller, rotational role, posting an overall 73.7 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. For Lewis, it was also a career best year, in terms of snaps played, PFF grade, and pressure rate, as he had combined for 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 48 career games prior to last season. 

Lewis was a second round pick in 2018, so he’s always had talent, but it also seems unlikely he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, now in his age 29 season. He’s also been injury prone throughout his career, playing more than 9 games in a season just twice in six seasons in the league. Lewis could remain a useful rotational player in 2024 and his versatility is valuable, but I would expect him to regress at least somewhat and probably miss more time with injury. This is a deep group with first round pick Laiatu Latu being added, but both Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis are unlikely to repeat last season’s performances, while Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo were not as good of pass rushers as their sack totals suggested in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a need this off-season for the Colts and one the Colts could have addressed in the first round of the draft (the Seahawks took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy one pick after theirs). Instead, it looks like they will try to fill their need at this position by loading up at the edge defender position and playing Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis inside more often, which might not be the best solution, unless Latu turns out to be a much better pro than Byron Murphy long-term. 

The Colts have a good starting duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart at the interior defender spot, but both are getting up there in age, going into their age 30 and age 31 seasons respectively, and their depth behind them is suspect, even if Odeyingbo and Lewis see more action inside this season. That depth was exposed last season when Stewart was limited to 445 snaps in 11 games by suspension. Stewart still had a 76.2 PFF grade when he played, but their top reserves Taven Bryan (343 snaps), Eric Johnson (265 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (132 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 51.3, 30.5, and 27.5 respectively. 

Stewart has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, surpassing 70 twice, playing at his best against the run at 6-4 314 pounds, but also adding a decent 5.9% pressure rate over those five seasons and playing close to an every down role (40.0 snaps per game). His age is a concern and he may start to decline this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he remains at least a capable starter. Originally a free agent this off-season, the Colts gave him a significant contract to stay, re-signing him for 39 million over 3 years.

Buckner, meanwhile, has always been the better player, exceeding 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 80, including three of the past four. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 61 sacks, 109 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 129 career games, but he also holds up against the run and averages 53.1 snaps per game for his career, while missing just two games in eight seasons in the league. Even if he starts to decline in 2024, he should continue playing at a high level, given how high of a base point he would be declining from.

The Colts signed Raekwon Davis in free agency this off-season to give them more depth, but he is a very underwhelming addition, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and totaling just a 5.4% pressure rate in four seasons in the league, while averaging 511 snaps per season. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but he’s already going into his age 27 season, so he might not really have much untapped upside. Even as a reserve, he’s not a great option and he’s unlikely to live up to a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal the Colts gave him this off-season.

Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson, and Adetomiwa Adebawore all return as reserves and I wouldn’t expect much out of any of them. Bryan has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, on an average of 449 snaps per season. Johnson and Adebawore are at least young, going in the 5th round in 2022 and 4th round pick in 2023, but neither have shown anything as professionals yet, with Johnson also struggling as a rookie (47.4 PFF grade on 127 snaps) and it’s very possible they’ll never develop into even decent reserves. Buckner and Stewart remain a good starting duo, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 now and the Colts’ depth at this position is still a significant issue.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Just a couple years ago, the Colts’ top linebacker was Shaq Leonard, who was also one of the best linebackers in the league, but injuries sapped his abilities over the past couple seasons and he had just a 60.3 PFF grade on 454 snaps in 9 games in 2023, before being released mid-season when he was unhappy with his role. With Leonard playing a smaller role and then getting released, Zaire Franklin led this group with 1,090 snaps played in 2023, while EJ Speed played 730 snaps on the season and saw his playing time increase when Leonard was gone (373 snaps in his final six games), and Ronnie Harrison played 234 snaps in seven games after being signed from the practice squad mid-season to replace Leonard.

Franklin also played 1,136 snaps in 2022, but he has PFF grades of just 57.0 and 60.9 in those past two seasons, so he’s more of a snap eater than an impact player. A 2018 7th round pick, Franklin played sparingly in his first four seasons in the league (465 snaps) before becoming a starter and, now in his age 28 season, I would expect him to continue being a decent, but unspectacular every down player. Speed, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and didn’t see a lot of playing time in his first four seasons before last season (497 snaps), but he flashed potential with a 78.4 PFF grade on 316 snaps in 2022 and had a decent 65.0 grade in his expanded role in 2023, struggling in coverage, but playing he run well. Speed has always played the run much better than the pass, which is a concern because he’ll probably continue having an expanded role in 2024 and have to cover more often, but he should at least be a decent starter overall.

Harrison will continue being the third linebacker, playing primarily in base packages, the same role as he had down the stretch last season. Originally a safety before changing positions last season, Harrison was mostly decent in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, but the 2018 3rd round pick had trouble staying consistently healthy, missing 15 games in those five seasons, with missed time in all five seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. This should remain a decent, but unspectacular linebacking corps this season.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback was another big need position for the Colts that they could have addressed early in the draft. Instead, they didn’t address it until the 5th and 6th rounds, when they took Jaylin Simpson and Micah Abraham, who will only be deep reserves as rookies. Without significant additions to this group this off-season, the Colts will hope for better health at this position than a year ago, but even if they are healthier, they could still have issues. Kenny Moore, JuJu Brents, and Dallis Flowers started last season as the Colts’ top-3 cornerbacks, but Brents was limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and Flowers was limited to 304 snaps in 4 games.

Brents was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 63.2 PFF grade in his injury-shortened rookie season, so he has the upside to take a step forward and become at least a solid starter in his second season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that we have only seen a small sample size from him. Flowers, meanwhile, also had a decent 66.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season, but that’s an even smaller sample size and Flowers went undrafted in 2022 and struggled with a 49.5 PFF grade on 175 snaps as a rookie, so he’s highly unproven.

With Brents and Flowers missing time last season Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker played 788 snaps and 469 snaps respectively, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 51.8. That’s not surprising, given that Jones was a 7th round rookie, while Baker is a 2022 undrafted free agent who hadn’t played a defensive snap prior to last season. Both remain on the roster for now, but with Brents and Flowers expected to be healthier and Simpson and Abraham added late in the draft, neither Jones nor Baker are guaranteed a roster spot in 2024.

Fortunately, the Colts got a good season out of top cornerback Kenny Moore, as the veteran had a 77.4 PFF grade on 1,089 snaps in 16 games. Moore has a recent history of injuries and inconsistency though. In fact, his 2023 PFF grade was the highest of his seven seasons in the league. Moore has surpassed 70 on PFF three other times, but prior to last season, the most recent instance was in 2020, as he fell to a 66.6 PFF grade in 2021 and fell even further to 55.7 in an injury plagued 2022 season, when he was limited to 774 snaps in 12 games. Brought back on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, Moore could continue playing at a high level in 2024, still only in his age 29 season, but chances are he’ll regress a little bit.

At safety, the Colts re-signed 2020 3rd round pick Julian Blackmon to a 1-year, 3.7 million dollar deal after he had a career best 68.3 PFF grade last season. Blackmon has always had talent, exceeding 60 on PFF on all four seasons in the league, and he is still only going into his age 26 season, but injuries have been a problem for him for most of his career, as he’s missed 17 games in four seasons in the league, even missing two last season in the most impressive full season of his career. He could continue being a solid starter in 2024 and potentially has the upside to be even better, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury.

At the other safety spot, Rodney Thomas, who started most of last season, will compete with Nick Cross, who took over a bigger role down the stretch. Both were drafted in 2022, but they’re very different players. Thomas went in the 7th round and is already heading into his age 26 season, so he probably doesn’t have much untapped upside, and he’s struggled with PFF grades of 54.3 and 58.2 on snap counts of 720 and 962 in two seasons in the league. 

Cross, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and is only going into his age 23 season, so he could have a lot of untapped upside, and he flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade on 292 snaps last season, after struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in limited action (122 snaps) as a rookie. Cross seems like the better starting option, but he’s still very unproven. Without any major additions to this group this off-season, the Colts figure to have an underwhelming secondary again in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Colts have a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 season because of the wide range of potential outcomes from their talented, but inexperienced starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts weren’t quite as good as their 9-8 record last season and aren’t really much better overall this season, so if Richardson isn’t better than Gardner Minshew was a year ago, or if he’s worse than Minshew was, the Colts won’t have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot. However, if Richardson can be an upgrade over Minshew, the Colts have enough talent on the rest of this roster than they should be able to take a step forward and be a playoff team. I would say odds are against them qualifying for the playoffs in the loaded AFC, but that is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Update: The Colts’ chances of being playoff contenders in the loaded AFC took a big hit when they lost Samson Ebukam for the season with injury. Unless they get an unexpectedly big year from Anthony Richardson, I would expect the Colts to have a losing record.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC South