Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick in a draft with Trevor Lawrence, one of the best quarterback prospects of the past couple decades and a consensus choice for the #1 selection. It’s arguable that no team needed that more than the Jaguars, who not only had the worst record in the league the previous season at 1-15, but who also had won more than six games just once in the eleven seasons prior, with an average win total of 4.4 over that stretch.

Through three seasons in the league, Lawrence’s numbers don’t look like what you’d expect out of someone who entered the league with as much promise as he did, as he’s completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 58 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 85.0 that is 33rd out of 41 eligible quarterbacks over the past three seasons, behind quarterbacks such as Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke. Because of that, some are even calling Lawrence a bust and saying that the Jaguars made a mistake selecting him. That doesn’t tell the whole story though.

Lawrence’s overall numbers are brought down by the fact that he struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, but that was a terrible team with a terrible coaching staff. In the past two seasons, Lawrence has been significantly better. In year two, he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (95.2 QB rating).

In year three, his production did take a step back, as did the Jaguars who missed the playoffs at 9-8 after making them and winning a playoff game the previous season. Lawrence completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (88.5 QB rating) in 2023, but he played through multiple injuries down the stretch and was a lot better earlier in the season, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while going 8-4 through 12 starts, before a late season collapse.

Between those first 12 games of last season before injuries got the best of him and his strong run in the second half of the 2022 season after things seemed to click for him, Lawrence completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.39 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (97.3 QB rating) in a 23-game stretch, including playoffs, while going 16-7 and leading the Jaguars to the second round of the post-season. If you look at his overall production over three seasons in the league, it’s underwhelming, but if you look at how he played over the past year and a half before injuries got the best of him late last season, you can see the potential for a quarterback who is still only going into his age 25 season in 2024.

WIth Lawrence extension-eligible now three years into his career, the Jaguars will have a decision to make on his long-term future. Lawrence has two years left on his rookie deal and could theoretically be franchised tagged twice after that, but Lawrence’s salary would jump significantly on his 5th year option in 2025 and then even higher if he were to be franchise tagged, so either way he is about to get a lot more expensive. 

If the Jaguars wait to extend Lawrence, they risk his price getting higher if he bounces back from injury and continues to develop and his price will also go up as more quarterbacks sign big long-term deals. They also risk upsetting their franchise quarterback if they make him wait too long for long-term security. Even now, Lawrence’s long-term extension would probably exceed the 53 million annually the Lions gave to Jared Goff and it will almost definitely only get higher the longer they wait. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, but Lawrence still has the upside to develop into that kind of quarterback. 

With Lawrence about to get a lot more expensive, the Jaguars seem to be trying to take full advantage of their window with Lawrence as a cheap quarterback and have been aggressive adding talent on both sides of the ball in free agency, leading to them ranking 10th in total average annual value of their roster, despite Lawrence still being relatively cheap. Average annual value tends to correlate heavily with a team’s winning percentage, which is a good sign for the Jaguars’ chances of being successful in 2024, especially since they were 8-4 last season before Lawrence’s injuries got the best of him. 

Lawrence only missed one game with his injuries last season, which is the only game he’s missed in his career, but if he happens to miss more time with injury, the Jaguars added Mac Jones to be his backup this off-season. Jones was also a first round pick in the same 2021 NFL Draft as Lawrence, going 15th overall to the Patriots, and he actually seemed like the better quarterback in year one, completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, but he has struggled mightily over the past two seasons, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.50 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions, leading to him being benched numerous times and ultimately being traded from the Patriots to the Jaguars for a late round pick. 

Jones is still only in his age 26 season though and much of his struggles in the past two seasons can be blamed on the poor scheme and lack of talent around him, so he’s a worthwhile reclamation project for the Jaguars and probably one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He’ll technically have to compete for the backup job with incumbent CJ Beathard, who has a career 82.1 QB rating in 13 starts in 7 seasons in the league, but Jones should be considered the heavy favorite for the job. The Jaguars have good depth behind a talented young starting quarterback who was having a strong year and a half stretch before late season injuries in 2023. This is one of the better quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The area the Jaguars have made the biggest investment in over the past few off-seasons is in the receiving corps. Two off-seasons ago, they signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years and 24 million over 3 years and tight end Evan Engram to a contract worth 9 million over 1 year. Last off-season, they franchise tagged and extended Evan Engram on a 3-year, 41.25 million dollar deal and traded for wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the final 1-year, 11.116 million left on his contract. This off-season, they let Ridley walk and released Zay Jones ahead of the final year and 7 million of his contract and then replaced them with free agent Gabe Davis on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and first round pick Brian Thomas. Kirk, Davis, and Thomas will be their top-3 wide receivers this season, while Engram will continue having a big role as a pass catching tight end.

Kirk will probably be the de facto #1 receiver, as he has been for the past two seasons. In his first season in Jacksonville in 2022, Kirk had a 84/1108/8 slash line with a 1.79 yards per route run average and last season he was on pace for a 81/1115/4 slash line with a 2.07 yards per route run average before missing the final five games of the season with injury. Kirk was considered by many to be a big overpay when the Jaguars signed him, but he had a 77/982/5 slash line with a 1.81 yards per route run average in his final season in Arizona and he was a former 2nd round pick going into only his age 26 season, so the Jaguars saw potential in him and credit them for being right, with Kirk continuing to develop since joining the Jaguars. Now his contract, which only makes him the 21st highest paid wide receiver in terms of average annual salary, seems very reasonable. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Kirk in 2024.

With Kirk missing time with injury last season, Calvin Ridley led the team with a 76/1016/8 slash line, but he only averaged 1.57 yards per route run, so he won’t be too hard to replace, nor will Zay Jones, who averaged just 1.05 yards per route run average with just a 34/321/2 slash line in 9 games an injury plagued season. Gabe Davis is probably a slight downgrade from Ridley, with a 1.44 yards per route run average over the past three seasons in Buffalo with Josh Allen, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in 2024 and fill Ridley’s old role well. The rookie Brian Thomas, meanwhile, should be a significant upgrade over Jones so, in the aggregate, Davis and Thomas should be an upgrade on Ridley and Jones.

When the Jaguars originally signed Evan Engram, that signing was also questioned, as he had averaged just 1.36 yards per route run in five seasons with the Giants at that point in his career, with just a 0.89 yards per route run average in his final season before free agency, and he had missed 16 games with injury in those five seasons, while maxing out with a 64/722/6 slash line. However, Engram has taken a big step forward since joining a much better offense in Jacksonville, surpassing his career best slash line with the Giants in both seasons with the Jaguars, totaling a 73/766/4 slash line with a 1.46 yards per route run average in 2022, leading to the Jaguars franchise tagging him and giving him a big extension, and then totaling a 114/963/4 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average in 2023. Engram is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been the past two seasons, he should at least be a solid receiving tight end.

Depth is a bit of concern for the Jaguars outside of their top-3 wide receivers and their top tight end. Parker Washington and Tim Jones saw expanded action last season when injuries kept Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out of action, but Washington, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged just 0.75 yards per route run, while Tim Jones, a 2021 undrafted free agent, averaged just 0.45 yards per route run, in line with the 0.51 yards per route run he averaged in the only other experience of his career in 2022. Both are young, but neither entered the league with much upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if neither even developed into capable backups. The Jaguars signed veteran Devin Duvarney in free agency, but he’s more of a return specialist than a wide receiver, averaging just 0.91 yards per route run with a career best slash line of 37/407/3 in four seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Jaguars used a 2nd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Brenton Strange, but he didn’t show much as a rookie, playing just 307 snaps, mostly as a blocker, and averaging just 0.41 yards per route run. Strange actually was the 3rd tight end for most of last season, consistently playing behind Luke Farrell (412 snaps). Farrell was also mostly a blocker, but also added 1.36 yards per route run as a pass catcher. A 5th round pick in 2021, Farrell has only averaged 1.09 yards per route run for his career and probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a decent blocker. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Strange took a step forward in year two and took over the #2 tight end job. Even if the Jaguars’ depth is suspect, they still have a good top-4 pass catching targets with Kirk, Engram, Davis, and Thomas.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest addition the Jaguars have made in the past few off-seasons is right guard Brandon Scherff, who they signed to a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Scherff is still the 8th highest paid guard in the league even as other guards have gotten big extensions in the past couple off-seasons, so it was a big commitment for the Jaguars. It was understandable why they did it, as Scherff had finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons of his career prior joining the Jaguars, but he had also missed 27 games in the past five seasons and was heading into his age 31 season in his first season in Jacksonville, so it was a risky signing.

Scherff has managed to stay healthy since joining the Jaguars, playing all 17 games in both seasons, but he hasn’t been the same player, receiving grades of 59.0 and 67.3 from PFF, the two worst single season grades of his career. Now going into his age 33 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline further. He still has a good chance to at least be a decent starter, but he’s still unlikely to live up to his big contract. 

Coming into last season, left guard and center were weaknesses for the Jaguars, but they addressed the left guard spot with a mid-season trade for Ezra Cleveland, who they then kept on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, and then they also added center Mitch Morse on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Cleveland struggled in his first half season in Jacksonville, with a 46.0 PFF grade in five starts, but he had PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, 73.5, and 73.8 in his first three and a half seasons in the league with the Vikings before being traded to Jacksonville, so he has some obvious bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season, now going into his first full season with his new team.

Morse, meanwhile, has been a capable, if unspectacular starter for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league (126 starts), but only finishing above 70 twice, with the most recent instance coming all the way back in 2018. Morse is now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline, hence why he was relatively cheap in free agency, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a big upgrade on Luke Fortner, who struggled mightily with a 44.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who also struggled with a 49.6 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, will now be a backup, a role he’s better suited for, as will Tyler Shatley, a career backup (51 starts in 10 seasons in the league) in his age 33 season, who struggled with a 47.5 PFF grade in 6 starts at guard last season before Cleveland arrived.

At tackle, the Jaguars have left tackle Cam Robinson, a 2017 2nd round pick who is on a 3-year, 54 million dollar extension, and right tackle Anton Harrison, who was their first round choice in 2023. Robinson isn’t quite worth his salary, but he’s received grades in the 60s from PFF in each of the past four seasons, so he’s at least a capable starter. He missed eight games last season and was replaced by swing tackle Walker Little, a 2021 2nd round pick who was mediocre with a 58.8 PFF grade. 

Little was highly drafted, but has made just 17 nondescript starts in three seasons in the league and his presence didn’t prevent the Jaguars from selecting Harrison last year. Walker is at least a good reserve though and he has the versatility to play guard. Harrison, meanwhile, struggled with a 53.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but he entered the league very young and very raw, so he could easily take a step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. This offensive line isn’t as good as the Jaguars would like, given how much they’ve invested in this group in recent years, but they’re still at least a decent unit and they should be better than a year ago, with Cam Robinson likely healthier, Ezra Cleveland likely bouncing back from a down year, and Mitch Morse being added in free agency.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Along with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars drafted Lawrence’s college teammate, running back Travis Etienne, in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Etienne missed his entire rookie season with injury, but has developed into a feature back in the past two seasons. He was a lot more efficient in year two than year three, rushing for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries (5.11 YPC) in 2022, as opposed to 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 267 carries (3.78 YPC) in 2023, but he actually finished with a better PFF grade in 2023 (77.0) than in 2022 (72.1), as his YPC after contact stayed about the same (3.08 in 2022, 2.87 in 2023), while his missed tackle rate increased and his receiving production went from 35/316/0 with 1.00 yards per route run in 2022 to 58/476/1 with 1.18 yards per route run in 2023. In 2024, he should have better run blocking and I would expect him to finish between his 2022 and 2023 averages in terms of YPC, while continuing to carry the load and play on all three downs.

The Jaguars used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on running back Tank Bigsby to try to give Etienne more rest, but Etienne actually played more in 2023 than he did in 2022, as Bigsby struggled mightily as a rookie, averaging just 2.64 YPC on 50 carries. D’Ernest Johnson, the Jaguars’ other backup running back, also struggled with a 2.63 YPC on 41 carries. Bigsby has a good chance to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two, but Etienne still figures to have a big role as the featured back. Johnson remains as well and his career 4.65 YPC average suggests he should be better in 2024 than 2023, although he only has 182 carries in 6 seasons in the league and wouldn’t be a candidate for a big workload even if Etienne got hurt. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Keilan Robinson and he could earn playing time if both Bisgby and Johnson struggle. The Jaguars’ depth is still questionable, but they at least have options with potential and Etienne is still an above average feature back.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

On defense, the Jaguars’ biggest off-season addition was Arik Armstead, who they brought over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal. Armstead is now going into his age 31 season and injuries have been a concern for much of Armstead’s career, as he’s missed 31 games in nine seasons in the league since going in the 1st round in 2015, including 13 games missed over the past two seasons, but he’s mostly played at a high level when healthy, totaling 33.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 116 career games as a pass rusher, while also playing the run well and having the versatility to play outside on the edge from time to time. 

In total, Armstead has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league, including 2023, when he had a 81.9 PFF grade with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 12 games, despite his age. He could easily start declining this season and could also miss more time with injury, but even at less than his best and for less than 17 games, he should be an asset for this team and an upgrade over all of the Jaguars’ interior defenders last season, when Roy Robertson-Harris led the way with just a 62.3 PFF grade on 683 snaps. 

Robertson-Harris remains and should continue having a significant rotational role. Run defense is an issue for him and always has been, but he had 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate last season and has 17 sacks, 44 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 100 career games in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, he could start to decline in 2024 and, even at his best, he’s never been more than an average starter, but he should still at least be a useful rotational pass rusher on the interior.

The Jaguars are also hoping for more out of DaVon Hamilton. A 2020 3rd round pick, Hamilton struggled on snap counts of 408 and 443 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 74.9 PFF grade on 610 snaps in his third season in the league in 2022, earning a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar extension as a result, only to be limited to 190 snaps in 8 games and a 36.2 PFF grade in 2023 because of injuries that plagued him all season. Only in his age 27 season, Hamilton has obvious bounce back potential if he’s past the injuries that plagued him last season. It’s worth noting he’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but even if he isn’t quite that good again in 2024, he should still give the Jaguars a lot more than he gave them in 2023.

The Jaguars also used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson respectively. Smith should have a role based on where he was drafted, but Jefferson could have a hard time earning playing time in a suddenly deep position group. The Jaguars also bring back Adam Gotsis (427 snaps), Jeremiah Ledbetter (369 snaps), and Tyler Lacy (145 snaps) from last year’s group, with Folorunso Fatukasi (61.0 PFF grade on 415 snaps) being their only notable departure at the group this off-season. None of Gotsis, Ledbetter, and Lacy will be guaranteed a role though, in a much deeper position group than a year ago, highlighted by Armstead, Robertson-Harris, Hamilton, and the rookie Smith.

Gotsis is entering his 9th season in the league and has been an unspectacular rotational player throughout his career, receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF on an average of 413 snaps per season in eight seasons in the league, including a 61.0 PFF grade on 427 snaps in 2023, but now heading into his age 32 season, it’s fair to question how much longer he can even keep that up and he shouldn’t be considered a lock for the final roster going into 2024. Lacy, meanwhile, was a 2023 4th round pick who showed little in a very limited role in a relatively thin position group as a rookie, while Ledbetter played 369 snaps out of necessity (after playing just 82 snaps in the previous five seasons combined) and predictably struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade. Lacy might stay on the roster on upside alone, but neither he nor Ledbetter are roster locks either, in a much better position group than a year ago, with Armstead being added in free agency, Smith being added early in the draft, and DaVon Hamilton likely being healthier.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Jaguars also spent heavily this off-season to keep top edge defender Josh Allen, franchise tagging him and then giving him a 5-year, 141.25 million dollar deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. It’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve it. The 7th overall pick in 2019, Allen has never been bad and he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being drafted, from 68.4 on 634 snaps as a rookie to 89.5 on 880 snaps in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in the best season of his career in 2023.

Opposite Josh Allen, Travon Walker also had impressive pass rush snaps with 10 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, while playing 869 snaps, but he benefited significantly from Josh Allen drawing double teams opposite him and he struggled mightily against the run, missing a position leading 15 tackles, leading to Walker receiving just a 53.9 overall grade from PFF. Walker was the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, even if that was a historically weak draft at the top, he still has a ton of upside, still only going into his age 24 season. He was also mediocre with a 60.3 PFF grade on 788 snaps as a rookie, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a big step forward in year three and, even if he doesn’t improve significantly, 2024 could still easily be the best season of his career.

Walker and Allen rarely came off the field in 2023 because of the Jaguars’ lack of depth at the position, with Dawaune Smoot (340 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (283 snaps) struggling mightily in limited action with PFF grades of 42.4 and 54.7 respectively, and things should be similar this season. Smoot and Chaisson are gone and wouldn’t really be missed if not for the fact that the Jaguars didn’t really replace them. Their most notable addition was Trevis Gipson. Gipson was a 5th round pick by the Bears in 2020 and was a decent rotational edge rusher with them in 2021 and 2022, playing 489 and 641 snaps respectively and totaling 10 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. However, Gipson struggled mightily against the run, leading to him being cut by the Bears going into 2023 and then playing just 76 snaps in his lone season in Tennessee. 

Gipson will have the opportunity for more playing time in Jacksonville and could go back to being a useful rotational pass rusher, only in his age 27 season, but he should also continue struggling against the run and is overall an underwhelming top reserve. The Jaguars also used a 7th round pick in this year’s draft on Myles Cole, who could be forced into a significant reserve role as a rookie, a role in which he will almost definitely struggle. Cole will compete for the 4th edge defender position with 2023 5th round pick Yasir Abdullah, who showed very little promise on 45 snaps as a rookie and who would likely struggle even in a rotational role. Josh Allen is one of the best edge defenders in the league and Travon Walker at least has a lot of upside, but the Jaguars still lack depth at a very top-heavy position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Things stay the same personnel wise for the Jaguars at linebacker, which is a good thing because Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd were one of the better linebacker duos in the league with PFF grades of 75.2 and 78.1 respectively. Both players had the best season of their careers, but Lloyd at least has a good chance to repeat his performance, as a 2022 1st round pick who is still only going into his third season in the league. Lloyd struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade on 925 snaps as a rookie, but he’s unlikely to regress back to rookie year form at this point and, even if he doesn’t match or exceed last season’s performance, he should at least remain an above average starter, with the upside for more.

Oluokun’s chances of repeating last season’s performance are not as good, as he had never exceeded a 69.6 PFF grade in five seasons in the league prior to last season, including two seasons below 60 on PFF in 2020 and 2021. Oluokun isn’t totally over the hill yet, going into his age 29 season, but odds are probably against him repeating his career best year. He’s always been at least a capable run stuffer and a tackle machine, but last season was the first season of his career where his coverage abilities matched his run defense and that might not continue in 2024.

The Jaguars rarely use more than two off ball linebackers on the field at once, so the Jaguars’ depth would only be a factor in case of injury. Chad Muma was the only other pure off ball linebacker to see action last season and 107 of the 146 snaps he played last season came in two games when Lloyd was out due. Muma was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but has mostly struggled on 432 career snaps, including a 38.1 PFF grade last season. 

Muma might still have some untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup option because of that, but he almost definitely would be a downgrade from Lloyd or Oluokun in case of injury. The Jaguars also have 2023 4th round pick Ventrell Miller, but he didn’t play a single defensive snap as a rookie and is a complete unknown at this point in his career. Lloyd and Oluokun should still remain a talented linebacker duo in 2024 even if they aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago and their linebacker depth at least has some upside, even if they are unproven.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with signing Arik Armstead, the Jaguars also signed safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Ronald Darby to contracts worth 21.75 million over 3 years and 8.5 million over 2 years respectively this off-season, but they are replacing Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams respectively and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both were downgrades. Darby will almost definitely be a downgrade because Darious Williams excelled with a 79.5 PFF grade on 1,035 snaps last season and was the Jaguars’ best cornerback.

Darby has definitely had his moments, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 70, but he’s also been incredibly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in five of the past seven seasons with 42 missed games total in his career. Now going into his age 30 season, his injury proneness is unlikely to change. He actually managed to play 16 games last season with the Ravens, but only played 442 snaps as a part-time cornerback and his 69.5 PFF grade was solid, but a far cry from what Darious Williams gave the Jaguars last season.

Savage has a better chance of adequately replacing Rayshawn Jenkins, who only had a 60.9 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, but Savage has been inconsistent across his five seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2019 by the Packers, Savage showed his potential early in his career, with PFF grades of 67.1 and 75.3 respectively, but he fell to 58.5 and 47.5 in the next two seasons, leading to him getting benched late in the 2022 season. He got his starting job back for 2023 and was better with a 66.3 PFF grade, but missed seven games with injury and played just 558 snaps. He’s not as injury prone as Darby, but he’s missed time in four of five seasons in the league and has been inconsistent when on the field. He’s still only in his age 27 season and he has a lot of talent, but it’s tough to know what the Jaguars are going to get out of him.

The Jaguars also lost cornerback Tre Herndon this off-season, after he played well in limited action with a 70.8 PFF grade on 482 snaps last season, and they only replaced him with 3rd and 5th round picks Jarrian Jones and Deantre Prince, who both could easily struggle if forced into significant action in year one. The Jaguars also have Montaric Brown, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled mightily with a 51.3 PFF grade on 475 snaps in the first significant action of his career last season, mostly as an injury replacement. He’s unlikely to be the answer to replace Tre Herndon either. Their best option is probably Antonio Johnson, a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 grade on 172 snaps as a rookie, but he’s a projection to a larger role and could also be a downgrade from Herndon.

The Jaguars should at least get more out of Tyson Campbell, who was expected to be their top cornerback in 2023, but was limited to a 61.5 PFF grade on 589 snaps in 11 games due to injury. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell had a 62.7 PFF grade on 864 snaps as a rookie, before breaking out with a 82.1 PFF grade on 1,138 snaps in 2022. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but he’s still only going into his age 24 season, so, if he’s past his 2023 injuries, he could easily bounce back to his 2022 form, or at least close to it. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars might try to extend him before the season starts because his price would only go up if he bounced back this season.

The Jaguars might try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties more often in sub packages, with Darnell Savage having the versatility to play on the slot if needed. Andre Cisco returns as the other starter opposite free agent addition Darnell Savage. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential with a 67.9 PFF grade on 247 snaps as a rookie, before receiving 67.1 and 68.9 grades in 2022 and 2023 as a starter (30 starts). He should continue at least playing at that level in 2024 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had the best year of his career yet this year.

Andrew Wingard remains as the 3rd safety and, as far as 3rd safeties go, he’s one of the better ones in the league. He’s only been a starter once in his career, receiving a 69.0 PFF grade on 930 snaps (15 starts) in 2021, but he’s excelled in a reserve role the past two seasons with a PFF grades of 76.2 and 79.4 on snap counts of 217 and 330 respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, Wingard could be in for an expanded role in 2024 in a pretty thin secondary. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell has a high upside and bounce back potential coming off of an injury plagued season, but the rest of this group is average at best.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars were 8-4 last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt and Lawrence was in the middle of an impressive stretch of about a season and a half or so. Assuming Lawrence can stay healthy this time around, the he and the Jaguars have a good chance to bounce back and their supporting cast on both sides of the ball is arguably better this year than it was last year when the Jaguars got off to that impressive start.

Update: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago, but the rest of the AFC is better too, so they could easily be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South