Quarterback

Six off-seasons ago, the Vikings made a big decision to sign veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. The Vikings had just made the NFC Championship game with third string quarterback Case Keenum, who surprisingly played at a high level, but felt Keenum couldn’t would not repeat that level of play and opted to give big money to Cousins, who they felt was the missing piece on a strong overall roster. Cousins was initially signed to a 3-year, 84 million dollar deal and ultimately took him 185 million during his six seasons in Minnesota, but as a result of that, the Vikings found it hard to keep talent around the quarterback, which combined with untimely injuries and key players getting older, led to the Vikings going 50-37-1 with Cousins under center and winning just one playoff game.

Cousins himself wasn’t bad at all, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 171 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, but the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league.

This off-season, the Vikings opted to move on from Cousins and not get into a bidding war with the Atlanta Falcons for his services, with Cousins signing a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 8th highest paid quarterback in the league by average annual salary, despite the fact that Cousins now heads into his age 36 season and is coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Instead, the Vikings used a first round pick on quarterback JJ McCarthy and will attempt to surround McCarthy with enough talent to compete for a Super Bowl while he is still on his cheap rookie contract.

That might have been the better of the Vikings’ two options, but McCarthy enters the league very raw and, even on a cheap contract, his chances of leading this team deeper in the playoffs than Cousins did depends on him developing into the kind of quarterback worth the 10th overall pick, which is far from a guarantee. In year one, McCarthy will compete with veteran journeyman Sam Darnold for the starting job, a competition McCarthy could easily lose. 

Darnold is a former high draft pick in his own right, going 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He struggled early in his career as a starter with the Jets and Panthers, completing just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.54 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions in 49 starts in his first four seasons in the league, but he had terrible coaching and a terrible supporting cast early in his career and he’s shown signs of improvement in a limited sample size in better situations over the past two seasons, completing 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts.

Still only in his age 27 season, Darnold is a worthwhile reclamation project on a 1-year, 10 million dollar contract and he definitely has a chance to hold off McCarthy for the starting job, at least to begin the season. Either way, I wouldn’t expect much out of the quarterback position in Minnesota this season, but it’s understandable why the Vikings hit the reset button at the position this off-season, rather than doubling down on an expensive, aging Kirk Cousins. If McCarthy develops as expected long-term, the Vikings will be able to spend money to load up on talent around him and try to make the deep playoff run that they failed to make in Cousins’ tenure with the team.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Vikings didn’t make many big additions this off-season around their new quarterback, but the good news is the Vikings were actually a lot better than their 7-10 record suggested last season, finishing with a positive first down rate differential (+1.06%) and a positive yards per play differential (+0.35). That’s despite the fact that they got shaky quarterback play in Kirk Cousins’ absence, with their other quarterbacks completing 65.0% of their passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions over 9 starts, and that’s despite the fact that their top offensive weapon Justin Jefferson missed 7 games with injuries of his own.

Jefferson is one of the best players in the league at any position and having him likely playing more games than he did a year ago should be a big boost for this offense. A first round pick in 2020, Jefferson had slash lines of 88/1400/7, 108/1616/10, and 128/1809/8 in his first three seasons in the league respectively and in 2023 he had a 68/1075/5 slash line, despite playing just 10 games and having shaky quarterback play for much of those 10 games. 

In total, Jefferson has averaged 2.67 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and, still only in his age 25 season, he has plenty more of his prime to go. With the money the Vikings saved from not re-signing Cousins, the Vikings were able to extend Jefferson this off-season on a much deserved 4-year, 140 million dollar deal that makes him the highest paid non-quarterback in the league, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

With Jefferson missing a big chunk of the season last season, first round rookie Jordan Addison took on a bigger role than expected and he did well with it, considering it was only his first year in the league. He finished with a 70/911/10 slash line on 108 targets with 1.50 yards per route run and was even better in the seven games Jefferson missed, producing a slash line that extrapolates to 85/1061/10 on 129 targets over a full 17 game season. He’ll play more of a supporting role in 2024, but could easily take a step forward in efficiency in his second season in the league. With Jefferson opposite him, the Vikings have a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that has the upside to be as good as any in the league.

Tight end TJ Hockenson also had a big role last season with Jefferson missing time, averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th) and totaling a 95/960/5 slash line on 127 targets. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in week 16 and is now questionable for the start of the 2024 season, only about 8 months removed from the injury when the season kicks off. Even if he does make it back for week 1, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll play at his top form in his first season back from injury. Hockenson is a former first round pick who is only in his age 27 season and had a 86/914/6 slash line with 1.60 yards per route run in 2022, so he’s more than capable of repeating last season’s performance if he’s healthy, but that’s a big question mark.

If Hockenson is out to start the season, Robert Tonyan will likely be the Vikings’ primary pass catching tight end. Tonyan had a 52/586/10 slash line with a 1.58 yards per route run average in 2020, but he benefited significantly from playing with an MVP level Aaron Rodgers and he hasn’t been the same since, averaging just 1.08 yards per route run over the past three seasons combined. Now going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he could be a decent injury fill-in for a few games if needed. The Vikings also have Josh Oliver, who was the #2 tight end last season, but he’s just a good blocker, with run blocking grades of 74.6 and 73.9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but just 48 catches in 52 career games with a 0.94 yards per route run average, so he’s not really a candidate for an expanded passing game role even if Hockenson misses time.

The Vikings also lost #3 receiver KJ Osburn in free agency this off-season and he played a significant role last season with Jefferson missing time, totaling a 48/540/3 slash line on 75 targets, but he only averaged 0.97 yards per route run and has just a 1.11 yards per route run average for his career, so if he’s missed, it’ll only be because the Vikings didn’t do much to replace him this off-season, leaving the #3 receiver job to Brandon Powell, a career special teamer who had only a 1.13 yards per route run average last season when forced into a significant role by Jefferson’s injury, or to Trent Sherfield, a veteran journeyman with a career 0.84 yards per route run average and their only addition at the position this off-season. 

The Vikings also have 2022 6th round pick Jalen Nailor, but he has just 12 catches in two seasons in the league, so he’s unlikely to be a big factor either. The Vikings will need both Jefferson and Addison to stay healthy because they really lack depth behind them. With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, the Vikings have a great top trio of pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy group and Hockenson is coming off of a serious injury, which affects the overall grade of this group.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One big addition the Vikings made on offense this off-season was signing running back Aaron Jones away from division rival Green Bay. Running back was a big position of need this off-season, as the Vikings ranked 24th in the NFL with a 3.95 YPC average and 29th with 1,553 total rushing yards last season, despite ranking 10th on PFF in team run blocking grade. Jones, meanwhile, averaged 5.05 YPC with 45 touchdowns on 1,177 carries in seven seasons in the league with the Packers, including a 4.62 YPC average and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries last season. Jones also contributes in the passing game, with a career 1.24 yards per route run average and a career 48/364/3 slash line average per 17 games.

However, Jones is now heading into his age 30 season, which is a common age for running backs to drop off significantly, especially undersized, injury prone backs like Jones, who is just 5-9 208 and who has missed time in 5 of his 7 seasons in the league, totaling 18 missed games, with 6 of those coming just last season. The Vikings didn’t break the bank for Jones, nor did they make a significant long-term commitment, signing him to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal, but that does make him the 10th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary and it’s very possible Jones proves not to be worth that salary. Still, Jones should be an upgrade over what they had a year ago, when they had one of the league’s worst running back rooms. 

Ty Chandler was the best of the bunch a year ago, with 461 yards and 3 touchdowns on 102 carries (4.52 YPC), despite being only a 5th round pick in 2022 and only having 6 carries as a rookie prior to last season. He’s probably not suited to be a starter, but you could do worse than him as a #2 back and he should be more than capable of spelling Jones for a few touches here and there. The Vikings will need their top-2 backs to stay healthy though, as their depth behind Jones and Chandler consists of return man Kene Nwangwu, who has 27 carries in 3 seasons in the league, journeyman Myles Gaskin, who has a career 3.75 YPC average on 361 carries in five seasons in the league, and 2023 7th round pick DeWayne McBride, who spent his entire rookie season on the practice squad, despite a weak running back room ahead of him. The addition of Jones improves this group, but Jones’ age and injury history are significant concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Not much changed on the offensive line for the Vikings this off-season. The Vikings did make a change at the left guard position mid-season in 2023 though. Ezra Cleveland began last season as the starter at that spot and had an impressive 73.6 PFF grade in 6 games, but the Vikings opted to trade him at the deadline for a draft pick, with Cleveland set to hit free agency the following off-season. Dalton Risner took his place and mostly struggled, finishing with a 57.1 PFF grade on 745 snaps. Risner was still brought back as a free agent this off-season though and he could be better, finishing in the 60s on PFF in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (62 starts).

The rest of this group is the same as it was all last season. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram were mediocre last season with PFF grades of 60.9 and 59.5 respectively, but neither has much real competition for their job, with the alternatives being veteran journeyman Dan Feeney, who posted PFF grades of 49.2, 51.7, and 48.2 in three seasons as a starter from 2018-2020 and has subsequently played just 384 snaps in three seasons since, and Blake Brandel, 2020 6th round pick, who has been mediocre in limited action thus far in his career, playing just 502 snaps in four seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in every season. 

Bradbury was a first round pick in 2019 and has made 71 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has never been much more than a capable starter, maxing out with a 70.2 PFF grade in 2022, and he’s already heading into his age 29 season, so it’s unlikely he has much untapped talent at this point. Ingram, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 57.1 PFF grade as a rookie. He’s still young enough that there’s a good chance he takes a step forward in year three in 2024, but I wouldn’t expect a lot out of him either.

The tackle position is in much better shape, as left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill are among the best tackle duos in the league. Darrisaw was a first round pick in 2021 and has more than lived up to his billing, receiving grades of 71.9, 90.3, and 82.4 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league respectively, making him already one of the best left tackles in the league, only going into his age 25 season. 

O’Neill isn’t quite as good, but he’s been incredibly consistent throughout his career as the 2018 2nd round pick has received a grade of 70 or higher from PFF in five straight seasons, dating back to his second season in the league. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. The Vikings also have veteran swing tackle David Quessenberry,  who has been decent in limited action as a starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 61.7, 80.6, 59.3, and 64.8 in a total of 30 starts, though he’s now heading into his age 34 season. The Vikings tackles significantly elevate an otherwise mediocre offensive line.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Vikings made some big additions on defense, but the biggest one was more of a lateral move, as they allowed edge defender Danielle Hunter to sign a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal with the Texans and replaced him with a former Texan, Jonathan Greenard, who they signed to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal. Hunter received a PFF grade of 78.0 on 1,004 snaps last season, with 16.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, which would normally be a lot to replace, but Greenard had a 76.7 PFF grade on 697 snaps, with 12.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, so he won’t be much of a downgrade. He probably won’t play as many snaps as Hunter did, but he could easily match Hunter’s level of play.

Hunter does have more of a proven track record, as Greenard had played just 963 snaps in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, in large part due to injury, and only had a 8.9% pressure rate over those three seasons, but Greenard is also significantly younger, going into his age 27 season, while Hunter goes into his age 30 season, so Greenard could easily be the better player over the next few seasons. Greenard might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023 and injuries are a concern, as he’s missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average edge defender as long as he can stay on the field.

The Hunter/Greenard swap wasn’t the only move the Vikings made at the edge defender position, as they completely overhauled this group this off-season. DJ Wonnum, who was second among Vikings edge defenders with 826 snaps played, wasn’t brought back, which isn’t a huge loss as he only had a 62.3 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate. The Vikings will be replacing him with another free agent signing, ex-Dolphin Andrew Van Ginkel, as well as rookie Dallas Turner, who the Vikings moved back up into the first round to select. Van Ginkel was only signed to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, but he could prove to be a steal if he plays anything like he did last season when he received a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, excelling as a pass rusher, run defender, and in coverage. In total, he had 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. 

Van Ginkel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season on the snap count he played at last season, but he did have 10 sacks, 27 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate in the previous three seasons combined, while excelling against the run and playing an average of 538 snaps per season, so last season’s breakout year didn’t come out of nowhere. Van Ginkel is only a former 5th round pick, selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he’s also still only in his age 29 season and could easily continue playing at least at an above average level in 2024. Van Ginkel, Greenard, and the rookie Turner should all play significant roles and could easily be one of the better edge defender trios in the league if they all stay healthy and play up to their potential.

The Vikings also still have Pat Jones, who played 634 snaps last season, but he struggled mightily with a 37.5 overall PFF grade and a 8.2% pressure rate, so he’ll rightfully be playing a smaller role this season. Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and played better on a smaller snap count in 2022, with a 62.5 PFF grade on 308 snaps, so he could be a useful depth player and he might still have some further untapped upside. Jones will compete for a deep reserve role with veteran free agent addition Jihad Ward, who has played an average of 488 snaps per season over the past 5 seasons, but who has also only finished above 60 on PFF once in those 5 seasons. Now in his age 30 season, Ward was only given 1 million guaranteed this off-season and shouldn’t be guaranteed a roster spot. This remade group is much deeper than a year ago, even with former top edge defender Danielle Hunter going elsewhere this off-season.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Vikings didn’t make any big additions at the interior defender position this off-season, even though it was a position of weakness a year ago. Harrison Phillips (838 snaps) and Jonathan Bullard (643 snaps) led the way as the starters and both struggled, with PFF grades of 59.7 and 46.3 respectively. Phillips has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 5.9% pressure rate in six seasons in the league, but that fell even further to a 4.8% pressure rate in 2023 and his run defense dropped off as well, down from a 79.8 PFF grade in 2021 and a 73.6 PFF grade in 2022 to a 65.6 PFF grade in 2023. 

Phillips is only in his age 28 season, so there’s some bounce back potential here, at least in terms of run defense, but he’s a pretty underwhelming player to have as your top interior defender. Bullard, meanwhile, had never played more than 437 snaps in a season his first seven seasons in the league prior to last season and he had four straight seasons below 60 on PFF going into last season, so it’s not a surprise that he struggled mightily in an expanded role. Now in his age 31 season, I would expect his struggles to continue, even if he moves into a smaller role.

The Vikings did add some new depth options this off-season, but they’re not necessarily upgrades. Jonah Williams comes over from the Rams, where he saw his role grow in four seasons after going undrafted in 2020, not playing a snap as a rookie, playing 97 snaps in year two, 342 snaps in year three, and 597 snaps last season, but he mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 53.6 and 55.6 over the past two seasons respectively in the only two seasons of significant action in his career. Already in his age 29 season, I wouldn’t expect more out of him in 2024.

Jerry Tillery was also added, coming over from the Raiders. He had a 67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps in 2023, with his best play coming as an interior pass rusher, where he had a 10.2% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue playing at that level, but he had never had a PFF grade higher than 50 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He is a former first round pick, so it’s possible he’s finally turned a corner as a player, but he could also regress. Tillery and Williams might be better depth options by default than the Vikings’ depth options a year ago and Harrison Phillips has some bounce back potential, but this is still a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Vikings also made a big addition at the linebacker position, signing Blake Cashman to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal, but that’s a lateral move at best, with the Vikings losing their top linebacker from a year ago, Jordan Hicks, after he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games in 2023. Cashman was even better than that, with a 83.7 PFF grade, but that only came on 655 snaps in 14 games and he’s a complete one-year wonder, as the 2019 5th round pick had only played 609 snaps in 4 seasons in the league prior to his surprising breakout 2023 season and had never come close to showing the kind of potential he showed in 2023. Injuries were part of the reason for his lack of playing time early in his career, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as good two years in a row and durability concerns still remain. He’ll likely be a downgrade from Hicks, though he does have a good chance to at least be a solid starter.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a strong 2023 season out of nowhere. Despite going completely undrafted in 2023, Pace had a 77.1 PFF grade on 704 snaps as a rookie. The fact that he went undrafted just a year ago is not irrelevant at this point in his career and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was unable to repeat his surprise rookie season, but he also has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Pace and Cashman both had strong seasons in 2023, finishing 17th and 5th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but I wouldn’t expect either one to be as good in 2024.

Behind Cashman and Pace, the Vikings have questionable depth. Brian Asamoah was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but hasn’t gotten on the field much in two years in the league, playing 157 defensive snaps total. He might still have some untapped potential, but he could also struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Vikings also added veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of 452 snaps per season and now heads into his age 30 season, so he’s a pretty mediocre option, even as a reserve. This group has a high upside if Cashman and Pace can manage to come close to last season’s level of play, but that’s far from a guarantee and the downside is pretty significant as well.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Vikings’ secondary is the safety position, as they used 3 safeties on the field at the same time by far more than any team in the league, to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback and at linebacker. Camryn Bynum (1,120 snaps), Harrison Smith (1,111 snaps), and Josh Metellus (1,063 snaps) all played almost all of the Vikings’ 1,129 defensive snaps last season, with Metellus being the one who moved around the most, lining up as a slot cornerback or linebacker more often than he lined up in a traditional safety spot. All three played pretty well, with PFF grades of 73.2, 68.9, and 69.2 respectively, but there’s at least some reason to be concerned that they won’t all play at the same level in 2024.

The biggest reason is that Smith, by far the most accomplished of the bunch, now heads into his age 35 season. In his prime, Smith was one of the best safeties in the league, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in 8 straight seasons from 2014-2021, with four seasons over 80 and a career best 92.3 in 2017, but he’s fallen below 70 in back-to-back years and could continue declining in 2024, given his age. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be worse than a year ago. 

Metellus and Bynum, on the other hand, are younger, but with that youth comes inexperience. Bynum was a 4th round pick in 2021 and showed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie, with a 78.3 PFF grade on 211 snaps, but he struggled in his first full season as a starter in 2022, with a 58.2 PFF grade and, while he was obviously much better than that in his second full season as a starter, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter like he was a year ago. 

It’s very possible Bynum has permanently turned a corner and could continue playing at an above average level or even better than a year ago, but he could also regress a little bit. Metellus, meanwhile, was in his first season as a starter last season, after the 2020 6th round pick only played 329 snaps in his first three seasons in the league. He flashed a lot of potential with a 85.1 PFF grade on 259 snaps in 2022, but that’s a small sample size. He’ll probably remain at least a solid starter in 2024, but the fact that last season was his only season as a starter is a bit of a concern. 

It’s also unlikely all three safeties play all 17 games like they did a year ago, as that’s very tough to do two years in a row, but the Vikings do have good depth at the position. Theo Jackson was only a 6th round pick in 2022 and has played just 143 defensive snaps in his career, but was decent with a 67.6 PFF grade on 125 snaps in 2023. Meanwhile, Lewis Cine is a 2022 1st round pick who has been a major bust to this point in his career, playing just 10 total defensive snaps in two seasons in the league as a result of injury and poor performance, but he’s still young and talented and could at least be a useful reserve in 2024.

At cornerback, the Vikings’ two starters Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans both struggled with PFF grades of 58.0 and 55.0 respectively in 2023. Murphy was signed to a 2-year, 17.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season and is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary, but the Vikings will have a competition at the other spot and there’s a good chance Evans doesn’t keep his job. Mekhi Blackmon was a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and played well in limited action while gradually seeing his playing time increase, finishing with a 71.8 PFF grade on 434 snaps, with 329 of those snaps coming in week 8 or later. He’s still a projection to a starting role, but has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term and could easily be at least an adequate starter if needed in 2024.

The Vikings also signed Shaq Griffin in free agency, adding the journeyman on a 1-year, 4.55 million dollar deal. Griffin’s career got off to a good start, as the 2017 3rd round pick of the Seahawks made 67 starts in his first five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 64.1, and 72.0 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively and earning a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal from the Jaguars as a free agent after the 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to 336 snaps in 5 games in 2022 and he was subsequently made a cap casualty prior to the final year of his contract in Jacksonville in 2023, rather than being paid 13.5 million. 

Griffin caught on with the Texans in free agency on a 1-year deal last off-season and was decent with a 66.3 PFF grade on 382 snaps in 10 games in Houston, but he lost his role in a deep cornerback group and was ultimately waived mid-season, before landing in Carolina and seeing just 77 snaps the rest of the season. Griffin is still only in his age 29 season, so he has some bounce back potential, despite the last two seasons not going according to plan. He and Blackmon would both likely be upgrades on Evans, who may also have some untapped potential in his own right, as a 2022 4th round pick who has struggled thus far in his career.

Murphy could also be better than a year ago, although it’s unlikely he’ll live up to the contract the Vikings gave him last off-season. Murphy was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 26 season, but he’s never received a grade higher than 66.7 grade from PFF for a season and that came in an injury shortened 2022 campaign in which he played just 595 snaps in 9 games. In three of his five seasons in the league, he’s finished below 60 on PFF. 

Even if Murphy bounces back in 2024, his ceiling is probably only an adequate starter and he could easily struggle again. The Vikings also have 2022 2nd round pick Andrew Booth, but he’s played just 256 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league and is unlikely to carve out a role, even in an underwhelming position group overall. The Vikings will once again be relying on their safety depth to mask their issues at the cornerback position, even if they should be better at cornerback by default compared to last season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings were better than their 7-10 record in 2023, finishing with positive yards per play and first down rate differentials, despite the fact that starting quarterback Kirk Cousins and top wide receiver Justin Jefferson both missed significant time with injury. Cousins isn’t returning in 2024, but Jefferson should be healthier and the Vikings quarterbacks should be better than they were in Cousins’ absence last season. A lot of whether or not this team can contend for a playoff spot is dependent on how their quarterbacks perform, which is a question mark, but they have a solid supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

Update: The Vikings will start Sam Darnold all season with JJ McCarthy out for the year due to injury, which hurts their upside significantly, especially since they have one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC North