Quarterbacks

Heading into the off-season before the 2019 season, the Dolphins had been stuck in mediocrity for over a decade and a half. They had won at least 6 games in all but 2 of their previous 17 seasons, but had only finished above .500 five times, never winning more than 11 games in a season, with just two playoff appearances and no playoff victories. To try to get out of that cycle, the Dolphins pursued an aggressive rebuilding strategy, trading away numerous veterans to try to tank for a high draft pick and a potential young franchise quarterback, and to accumulate future draft picks and cap space to surround that young franchise quarterback with as much talent as possible while he was still on his cheap rookie deal.

The strategy landed them their 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after a 5-11 season and they used that draft pick on Tua Tagovailoa, who they systematically loaded up on talent around over the next few off-seasons, using their draft picks to add more young talent in the draft and to trade for impact veterans, while also being aggressive in free agency. The Dolphins immediately jumped to 10-6 in 2020 and rattled off four consecutive seasons with records above .500, but they still couldn’t get over the hump, maxing out with a 11-6 season in 2023 and losing in the first round of both of their playoff appearances, pushing their playoff win drought to 23 seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL.

Last season was especially frustrating. They came out of the gates looking like one of the best teams in the league, starting 3-0 and 6-2, but went just 5-4 after that hot start. In terms of DVOA, the Dolphins were better than their final record, ranking 6th overall, but that didn’t matter when the post-season began. Many will blame their late season collapse on their schedule getting tougher and, in fact, they did finish just 1-6 against playoff qualifiers if you count their first round post-season loss to the Chiefs, with 5 of those 7 games coming in the second half of the season after their hot start, but they won their games against non-playoff qualifiers convincingly enough that it should have translated into more success against better opponents than they had. 

The bigger problem was they increasingly lost key players to injury down the stretch. They finished the season with the 12th most adjusted games lost to injury, which doesn’t sound bad, but those injuries were disproportionately to their key players and they disproportionately happened down the stretch, to the point where the Dolphins were basically a skeleton crew by season’s end and didn’t stand a chance on the road against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.

Making last season even more frustrating is the fact that their window is starting to close. Tagovailoa is no longer on the cheap part of his rookie contract, owed 23.171 million in 2024 and will be due an increase even from that on his eventual long-term extension, while the bill is starting to come due for many of the talented players the Dolphins surrounded Tagovailoa with over the years. The Dolphins’ aggressive rebuilding strategy made sense, but they had a limited window to go on a deep playoff run and it’s looking like that window is about to close, if it hasn’t already. Rather than continuing to load up on additional talent around the quarterback this off-season, the Dolphins had to part ways with several talented players.

I’ll get into the Dolphins’ off-season losses later, but probably the biggest problem with the Dolphins’ rebuilding strategy was their choice of quarterback, as Tagovailoa has not looked like the right quarterback to lead this team all the way. Tagovailoa struggled for most of his first two seasons in the league, completing a combined 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 21 starts, while repeatedly getting benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Tagovailoa has been a lot more productive over the past two seasons, completing a combined 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, but he missed four games with injury in 2022 and, while he stayed healthy in 2023, a lot of his statistical success can be attributed to the talent and scheme he’s had around him and he’s consistently underperformed in big games against tough opponents. Making matters worse for the Dolphins, a quarterback who could have had success with this roster, Justin Herbert, was available for the taking, going just one spot after Tagovailoa to the Chargers with the 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Now the Dolphins are in a tough spot with Tagovailoa. Starting over at the quarterback position would be tough, because the Dolphins don’t have an obvious path to finding a better quarterback, unless they blow it all up again, start completely over, and tried to tank and find another quarterback atop the draft. However, Tagovailoa also isn’t the kind of quarterback who deserves the kind of extension the Dolphins will likely have to give him to stay long-term. 

The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, as it’s very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win at the highest level if that quarterback is taking up a significant portion of the salary cap. If Tagovailoa couldn’t find playoff success with the amount of talent he’s had around him the past couple seasons, it’s unlikely he’ll find that success with a diminished supporting cast and that’s the reality the Dolphins are faced with if and when they ultimately end up paying their quarterback. 

Tagovailoa’s durability also still lingers as a problem. He stayed healthy last season, but has suffered numerous injuries dating back to his collegiate days, most notable a series of concussions that might legitimately have him a concussion or two away from having to either miss significant time or hang them up for good for his own safety. If Tagovailoa misses time in 2024, the Dolphins would turn to Mike White, a mediocre quarterback with a completion percentage of 62.6%, a YPA average of 7.09, and 9 touchdowns to 13 interceptions on 313 career passes since going in the 5th round in 2018.

White would be an obvious downgrade even if Tagovailoa is not an elite quarterback and if White had to start for an extended period of time in 2024, the Dolphins would likely find it difficult to even qualify for the post-season.  The one saving grace is Tagovailoa is only in his age 26 season and still theoretically could have untapped upside, but he’ll have to take his game to another level if this team is ever going to go on a deep playoff run with him under center. There are definitely worse quarterback rooms than this, but the Dolphins are in a very difficult spot from a team building standpoint and, even if they stay healthier than they did a year ago, it’s hard to see them being more successful, in the regular season or in the post-season, given the talented players they lost this off-season, unless Tagovailoa can take his game to another level.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One area where the Dolphins lost key players this off-season was on the offensive line, with Connor Williams and Robert Hunt both not being retained this off-season. Williams and Hunt were among the key players who missed time with injury last season, limited to 497 snaps in 9 games and 547 snaps in 10 games respectively, but they also had PFF grades of 86.5 and 77.1 respectively, so they will definitely be missed. The Dolphins at least somewhat replaced Williams through free agency, signing Aaron Brewer to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal to be their new starting center. 

Undrafted in 2020, Brewer became the Titans full-time starting center in his third season in the league in 2022 and struggled with a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he took a step forward in his second season as a starter in 2023, finishing with a 71.6 PFF grade on 17 starts. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level and it’s possible he is unable to repeat that season, but he’s not a bad signing either, for the price the Dolphins got him at. He will almost definitely be a downgrade from Williams even if he doesn’t decline, but at least he should stay healthier than the injury prone Williams.

Hunt, on the other hand, was not replaced this off-season. Instead, the Dolphins will have a competition between Lester Cotton, Robert Jones, and Isaiah Wynn, who all saw starts at guard last season, as well as Jack Driscoll, a low-level free agent signing from the Eagles. Two of those four players will likely open the season as the starting guards and, given that they’re all underwhelming options, it’s likely that three or all four of them see action at some point this season as the Dolphins try to find a combination that works.

Cotton had the most starts of the bunch a year ago, making 8 starts, but that was out of character for him, as the 2019 undrafted free agent had previously played just 95 career snaps in four seasons in the league, and he predictably struggled when forced into a larger role in 2023, finishing with a 46.4 PFF grade. Wynn also struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade in 7 starts, before going down for the season with an injury. Wynn was a first round pick back in 2018, but injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, costing him 47 games in 6 seasons in the league. He showed some potential early in his career, but injuries seem to have sapped that potential, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Now going into his age 29 season, his bounce back potential is limited, even if he can manage to stay on the field.

Robert Jones wasn’t bad last season, with a 60.9 PFF grade, but injuries also limited him to 418 snaps in 7 games. Undrafted in 2021, Jones also had a 62.0 PFF grade on 449 snaps in 2022, so he’s shown some potential, but he could struggle to hold up as a season-long starter and it’s unlikely he has a lot of upside, given that he wasn’t drafted. Driscoll, meanwhile, made 17 starts in four seasons with the Eagles after being drafted in the 4th round in 2020 and he had mixed results, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his four seasons in the league and below 60 in his other two seasons. He would also likely struggle if forced into a season-long starting role. Overall, none of the Dolphins four guard options are promising, which is a big concern entering the season.

Making matters worse for the Dolphins on the offensive line, left tackle Terron Armstead is now going into his age 33 season. Armstead has consistently has issues with injuries, missing 59 games in 11 seasons in the league, with at least two games missed in all but one season, including 7 games missed in 2023, but he’s also always played at a pretty high level, exceeding 75 on PFF in ten straight seasons, with six seasons over 80, including a 80.9 PFF grade in 2023. Given his age, Armstead is likely to miss time again with injury at some point in 2024 and it’s very possible he declines noticeably. He’ll probably still remain at least a solid starter even if he does decline, but any drop off from him would be a big deal on an offensive line that already had lost significant talent from a year ago.

Because of Armstead’s age and injury history, the Dolphins used their second round pick on offensive tackle Patrick Paul to give them another insurance policy option. He’ll compete with Kendall Lamm, a veteran who had a 64.3 PFF grade on 613 snaps a year ago, for the swing tackle role. Lamm has been most decent in 37 starts in 9 seasons in the league, mostly as a backup, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t have a high upside, so Paul is probably the favorite for the top reserve tackle job, even as a rookie.

There are a couple other ways Paul could get on the field besides an injury, as the Dolphins could opt to try him at guard, or they could play him at right tackle and move Austin Jackson inside to guard where he has experience, but there’s no indication the Dolphins are considering doing either of those things and it’s possible Paul could struggle as a rookie if he ends up in a starting role. 

Jackson was a first round pick in 2020, but he was mostly a bust in the first three seasons of his career, with PFF grades of 52.5, 49.9, and 57.9 across 30 starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Jackson took a big step forward in year four, finishing with a 68.4 PFF grade in 16 starts, and was subsequently extended on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal after originally having his 5th year option declined. It’s possible he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and came into the league with a lot of talent, so it’s also very possible he’s permanently turned a corner and could remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more. Barring an unexpected move back to guard, Jackson is likely locked into as the starting right tackle. Even if he doesn’t regress though, this is overall a very underwhelming offensive line compared to a year ago.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Fortunately, the Dolphins kept all of their key skill position players this off-season, led by the wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, Hill and Waddle both finished with PFF grades over 90 in 2023, at 93.7 and 90.7 respectively, and the Dolphins ran a huge portion of their offense through them, as they accounted for 48.6% of the Dolphins targets, 59.9% of their receiving yards, and 56.7% of their receiving touchdowns, all most in the NFL by a wide receiver duo.

For Hill, it was a career best year in terms of yardage (1,799), PFF grade, and yards per route run (3.82), which is even more impressive when you consider that he’s been in the league eight years and has exceeded 80 on PFF in all eight seasons, with 1,267 receiving yards per season and 2.61 yards per route run. Hill’s age is a bit of a concern, now going into his age 30 season, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he figures to remain one of the best wide receivers in the league regardless. The Dolphins paid a steep price to acquire Hill during the 2022 off-season, giving up first and second round picks and giving him a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal, but he has been well worth it, given how he has transformed this offense.

Waddle also transformed this offense when he was added as the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and he has gotten better in every season in the league. His yardage total in 2023 (72/1014/4) was actually the worst of his 3-year career, after slash lines of 104/1015/6 and 75/1356/8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but that was mostly because he missed three games with injury and didn’t run as many routes per game on a more balanced offense. In terms of yards per route run, Waddle had a career high with 2.64 (1.75 in 2021 and 2.59 in 2022) and the same was true of his PFF grade, after he had a 78.3 grade as a rookie and a 83.9 grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue playing at a high level in 2024, after the Dolphins wisely locked him up long-term on a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension this off-season.

With Hill and Waddle getting a huge chunk of the targets on this offense, there wasn’t much left over for anyone else, with tight end Durham Smythe ranking third on the team in catches, targets, and yards with just 35, 43, and 366 respectively. The Dolphins did add a couple pass catchers in free agency this off-season to give them some more options in the passing game, signing Odell Beckham to be the #3 receiver and tight end Jonnu Smith to compete with Smythe for the starting tight end job, but I wouldn’t expect huge roles for either of them as the Dolphins will continue to run their offense through Hill and Waddle.

Beckham used to be one of the best wide receivers in the league, exceeding 1000 yards in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a season ended by injury after 4 games, but injuries have caught up to him in recent years, limiting him to 35 games in the past four seasons, with just a 50/690/5 slash line per 17 games. He still has a decent 1.60 yards per route run average over that 4-year span, but he now heads into his age 32 season and it’s likely he’ll miss more time with injury and/or regress further. 

It wouldn’t be hard for Beckham to be an upgrade over Cedrick Wilson, their nominal #3 receiver a year ago who had a 22/296/3 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, but I don’t expect Beckham to be a big part of this offense unless Hill or Waddle get hurt, in which case he’d be a huge downgrade from either one. Braxton Berrios, meanwhile, remains as the #4 receiver, but he had just a 27/238/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average in 2023, so he’s not a big part of this offense either. In his career, Berrios has averaged 1.30 yards per route run, but just 0.76 yards per route run over the past two seasons.

Jonnu Smith, meanwhile, has a decent 1.61 yards per route run average over the past five seasons, but he’s been a part-time tight end for most of that time and has never exceeded 582 yards receiving in a season, something he’s unlikely to do in 2024, splitting time with Durham Smythe on an offense that doesn’t utilize the tight end spot much. I would expect him to outproduce Smythe though, as Smythe is more of a blocking specialist who has averaged just 1.00 yards per route run in his career, with a maximum of 366 yards receiving in a season in six seasons in the league. Beckham and Smith upgrade this offense slightly, but this receiving corps still will run through Hill and Waddle, who remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Dolphins also got great production from their top two running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in 2023. Mostert led the team with 209 carries and averaged 4.84 YPC with 18 touchdowns in 15 games, while Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.77 YPC, but was limited to just 103 carries in 11 games. When both backs were healthy though, that carry split was a lot closer. Excluding two games where Achane played but was clearly not healthy and only had one carry, Achane and Mostert were healthy for seven games together and Mostert had 88 carries to 77 for Achane in those seven games.

In 2024, I would expect them to continue having a pretty even split as long as both are healthy and it’s very possible that Achane ends up as the top back. Not only did he significantly outproduce Mostert last season, but Achane was only a rookie last season, while Mostert is now going into his age 32 season. Achane is also a significantly better pass catcher, averaging 1.12 yards per route run last season, as opposed to 0.68 for Mostert, who has a career average of 0.88. Durability is a concern for Achane after an injury plagued rookie season, but Mostert has a significant history of injuries as well, missing 26 games over the past five seasons, and as a result he’s never had more carries in a season than the 209 carries he had last season, when he also missed a couple games with injury.

Regardless of the carry split, Achane and Mostert should both remain very effective running backs. Achane is highly unlikely to average anywhere close to what he averaged last season, especially in a larger role, partially because no one has that kind of average for an extended period of time, partially because the Dolphins’ offensive line won’t be as good this season, but he should still remain a highly effective back. Mostert, meanwhile, has a career 4.84 YPC average and, even if he doesn’t match that this season, given his age and the Dolphins’ offensive line situation, he should still remain an effective back. 

The Dolphins will be hoping both Achane and Mostert will be healthier than they were a year ago, but the Dolphins used a 4th round pick on Jaylen Wright to improve their depth at the position. Last season, Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed were their top backs behind Mostert and Achane and they averaged just 3.95 yards per carry with 0.97 yards per route run combined. Wilson does have a career 4.49 YPC average, but he has just 515 carries in six seasons in the league and has averaged just 0.85 yards per route run, while Ahmed has averaged just 3.64 YPC on 163 carries in four seasons in the league, with 1.00 yards per route run. There’s no guarantee that Jaylen Wright will be better than them as a rookie, but the Dolphins at least like his upside and there’s a chance he ends up as a long-term replacement for the aging Raheem Mostert. This remains a talented backfield and they could be deeper than a year ago if the rookie Jaylen Wright has an impact.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Dolphins’ defense is where the majority of their off-season losses were. Since last season, 5 of their top-9 and 9 of their top-17 in terms of snaps played on defense are no longer on the team. The player they lost who played the best last season is edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who had a 91.1 PFF grade on 727 snaps, totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate and also excelling as a run defender and in coverage, before signing with the Vikings on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season. The Dolphins also lost Emmanuel Ogbah, though he played just 248 snaps in 14 games last season, contributing as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggling mightily against the run and finishing with an overall 55.4 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed too much.

To try to replace the players they lost, the Dolphins signed veteran Shaq Barrett to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal and then used their first round pick on Chop Robinson. Both will have significant roles this season along with holdovers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips. Chubb excelled last season, finishing with a 88.8 PFF grade, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate, in his first full season in Miami after being acquired for a first round pick during the 2022 season, when the Dolphins also gave him a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension.

A first round pick in 2018 by the Broncos, Chubb had shown a lot of promise in his career prior to last season, especially as a pass rusher, with 28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games, but he missed 25 games with injury in those five seasons and consistently struggled against the run, leading to him maxing out with a 70.7 season-long PFF grade during those five seasons. Chubb is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him either regress somewhat after by far the best season of his career and/or miss more time with injury, after tearing his ACL late last season, making him a question mark for the start of the 2024 season.

Phillips also played well last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, but he was limited to 8 games by injuries and is questionable for the start of the 2024 season after an achilles tear. Even if he is ready for the start of the season, he might not be at his best in his first year back. That being said, even at less than his best, he’s a welcome re-addition. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2021, Phillips was underwhelming as a rookie, but he’s been much better the past two seasons, maxing out with a 87.7 PFF grade on 838 snaps in 2022 and totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games, while also playing the run well. Still only in his age 25 season, he has a very bright future if he can get past his injury.

First round rookie Chop Robinson and veteran free agent acquisition Shaq Barrett give the Dolphins good depth at this position and will rotate with Chubb and Phillips frequently. Robinson could have growing pains as a rookie, but he has a high upside long-term and he should at least be a useful rotational player as a rookie. Barrett, meanwhile, is probably on the way down, going into his age 32 season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that he should continue playing at a relatively high level in a rotational role. 

Barrett finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, playing the run well and adding 51.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 107 games, despite going undrafted in 2014. He fell to a 68.3 PFF grade in an injury shortened season in 2022 (382 snaps), but bounced back pretty well with a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Because of his age, he was still let go by the Buccaneers ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season, but he could be a great value for the Dolphins on a much cheaper deal. The Dolphins will miss Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb could regress after a career best year in 2023, but this is still a deep and talented position group, arguably deeper than a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins also lost a key player at the interior defender position this off-season, letting Christian Wilkins walk in free agency, despite a 2023 season in which he had a 74.9 PFF grade on 895 snaps, playing the run well and also contributing 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Dolphins wanted to keep Wilkins, but, given their financial situation, franchise tagging him was not realistic, nor was matching the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he ended up getting from the Raiders. The Dolphins also lost Raekwon Davis, though that isn’t as big of a loss, as he finished last season with a 58.8 PFF grade on 499 snaps. 

Unlike on the edge, the Dolphins did a pretty poor job of replacing the players they lost, with veteran free agent additions Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Teair Tart, and Jonathan Harris all being underwhelming options. Those four will all compete for rotational roles, along with holdover Da’Shawn Hand, who excelled in limited action last season and who could see an increase on the 199 snaps he played in 2023. Giving Hand more playing time is probably their best option because he’s shown a lot of promise in his career, but he’s also never exceeded 455 snaps played in six seasons in the league, averaging 202 snaps played per season, while missing 54 games total over that span due to injury, so he’s not the most reliable option and his impressive play in limited action might not translate to a larger role.

Of the newcomers, Teair Tart probably is the best. The 2020 undrafted free agent has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, but he at least showed some potential with a 73.1 PFF grade on 520 snaps in 2022, playing the run well and also contributing a 8.5% pressure rate. He regressed to a 54.0 PFF grade on 378 snaps in 2023 and was cut by the Titans mid-season, before landing with the Texans to finish the season, but unlike the rest of the Dolphins’ free agent acquisitions, Tart at least has had one good season in his career. That doesn’t mean he’ll have another one in 2024, but by default he’s better than the alternatives.

Neville Gallimore was a 3rd round pick by the Cowboys in 2020, but never lived up to his potential, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons on an average of 318 snaps, including a 57.8 PFF grade on 288 snaps in 2023. Benito Jones was an undrafted free agent in 2020, barely played early in his career, and then finished with PFF grades of 53.3 and 37.4 on snap counts of 309 and 566 respectively over the past two seasons. Jonathan Harris went undrafted in 2019, played just 361 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league, before struggling with a 52.0 PFF grade in by far the biggest snap count of his career in 2023, playing 529 snaps. All three figure to struggle if forced to play a significant role, which at least one of them likely will, and Teair Tart could also struggle if he doesn’t bounce back to his 2022 form.

The Dolphins at least still have Zach Sieler, who will be their top interior defender with Wilkins gone. A 7th round pick in 2018, Sieler took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 69.3, 84.9, 74.7, and 68.1 on snap counts of 532, 518, 874, and 857 respectively over the past four seasons, playing the run well and also totaling 19 sacks, 29 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate over that time period. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another above average season as an every down player from him in 2024. He elevates a position group that is in pretty rough shape aside from him.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Dolphins also let go of linebacker Jerome Baker this off-season, ahead of a 11.133 million dollar salary owed in 2024. He probably wasn’t quite worth that salary, but he had a 66.6 PFF grade across 713 snaps in 13 games last season, so he’s not a small loss. To replace him, the Dolphins signed a couple options, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker, who come over on contracts worth 26.25 million over 3 years and 1.3775 million over 1 year respectively. Brooks was a first round pick by the Seahawks in 2020 and has averaged 979 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and would be an underwhelming replacement for Baker.

Walker has more upside, having finished with PFF grades of 69.1, 82.7, and 71.1 over the past three seasons, but he’s also missed 23 games over those three seasons, while playing an average of just 425 snaps per season. Walker is only going into his age 29 season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent problem for him throughout his career, costing him 30 games total in seven seasons in the league, while costing him at least one game in all but two seasons. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

It’s possible both Brooks and Walker have roles in this linebacking corps, but they’ll have to compete for roles in a group that, while it lacks a high level linebacker, still has pretty good depth even without Jerome Baker. David Long had a 68.9 PFF grade on 823 snaps last season, after PFF grades of 67.4 and 76.2 on snap counts of 740 and 829 over the two seasons prior to last season. He has issues in coverage and should probably see a smaller snap count this season because of that, but he is a great run defender and should at least have a base package role. 

The Dolphins also have Duke Riley, who had a 72.5 PFF grade on 394 snaps last season, though he’s never been that good before in a season and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, while averaging 317 snaps per season and maxing out at 571 snaps in a season. Riley is also now going into his age 30 season. He’s good depth, but could wind up as the odd man out in a deeper linebacking corps than a year ago. All four of their linebackers have their issues, Brooks having struggled throughout his career, Long struggling in coverage, Walker being injury prone, and Duke Riley being inconsistent and having never played an every down role, but the Dolphins at least have options in this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Dolphins also lost some key players in the secondary. At safety, Brandon Jones (76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps) and DeShon Elliott (72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps) weren’t retained this off-season. The Dolphins signed Jordan Poyer to a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal to be the starter opposite holdover Jevon Holland and Poyer has been a consistent above average safety for years, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons and 70 on PFF on five straight seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Even if Poyer doesn’t decline, the Bills lack depth behind him and Holland, with their top reserve options being Elijah Campbell, who has played just 207 snaps in six seasons in the league, and 6th round rookie Patrick McMorris, who would almost definitely struggle if forced into a big role in year one.

The Dolphins’ lack of safety depth could become a big problem, as not only is Poyer getting up there in age, but he’s also missed 6 games over the past three seasons, while Holland has also missed 6 games in three seasons in the league. Best case scenario, Poyer doesn’t regress and both stay healthy, in which case they’d be one of the better safety duos in the league, with Holland, who is only in his age 24 season, having received PFF grades of 84.7, 65.5, and 90.4 since going in the 2nd round in 2021. More likely, Poyer regresses somewhat and at least one of them misses time with injury and exposes their lack of depth. Even if Poyer regresses, he and Holland should still be a good safety duo, with Holland being one of the top safeties in the league, but their lack of depth is a concern.

At cornerback, the Dolphins let go of veteran Xavien Howard, who was owed 18.5 million in what would have been his age 31 season in 2024, as well as Eli Apple, but both struggled with PFF grades of 55.1 and 55.3 respectively on snap counts of 743 and 551 last season, so they won’t really be missed much, especially since the Dolphins made a great signing bringing in Kendall Fuller on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Fuller will start alongside Jalen Ramsey, with Kader Kohou on the slot, and the Dolphins also have 2023 2nd round pick Cam Smith waiting in the wings as good depth, after flashing potential as a rookie, albeit on just 22 defensive snaps.

Fuller should prove to be a bargain at the price the Dolphins got him at, as he’s surpassed 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons, including five seasons over 70, three of which have come in the past three seasons, when he has made 48 of a possible 51 starts and finished with PFF grades of 81.5, 76.6, and 83.1 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue playing at least at an above average level and, if he plays like he has the past three seasons, he should be a significant upgrade, at a cheaper price, over the departed Xavien Howard, who had struggled through injuries in recent years.

The Dolphins also should get more out of Jalen Ramsey this season, after he was limited to 585 snaps in 10 games last season and probably wasn’t fully healthy even when he did play, finishing with a 66.4 PFF grade, his worst in eight seasons in the league. Ramsey is going into his age 30 season and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best years were behind him at this point, but even if he does decline, he’s starting from a high base point, having finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons above 80, most recently a 84.5 grade in 2021 and a 86.4 grade in 2022. 

Even with Ramsey’s age being a minor concern, I would expect the Dolphins to get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Kader Kohou has received PFF grades of 69.8 and 64.5 on snap counts of 895 and 937 respectively in two seasons in the league, despite going undrafted in 2022, and he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. The Dolphins’ secondary looks like a well above average group, with their only real concern being their lack of depth at safety, behind a couple players who could be one of the top safety duos in the league when healthy, but who also have consistently missed time with injury in recent years.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Dolphins’ championship window is narrowing as it becomes increasingly harder for them to fit all of their talent under the cap, but this team was better than their 11-6 record last season in terms of DVOA, even with all of the injuries they had down the stretch last season, and, while they lost some talented players this off-season, they overall did a pretty good job of replacing them with cheaper alternatives. They’ll still probably need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to take a step forward to be considered true contenders, especially in the loaded AFC, but Tagovailoa is young enough that that’s a possibility. Ultimately, I still have them outside of the top teams in the AFC, but this is still a talented team overall.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC East