Quarterback

The Patriots went 4-13 last season, tied for the second worst record in the league, but there were some reasons for optimism going into the off-season. While their offense struggled mightily, ranking 29th in DVOA, their defense was good, ranking 9th, and, as a result, many of their losses a year ago were close, with 8 of 13 decided by seven points or fewer. They also had the 3rd pick in this year’s draft, one of the best in terms of top quarterback talent in recent memory, they had among the most cap space in the league entering the off-season, and a they had significant amount of talent set to return from injury, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league a year ago.

However, things did not go nearly as well as they could have this off-season. They started the off-season by firing long-term head coach and GM Bill Belichick, who had increasingly had trouble winning in the post-Tom Brady era, going 29-38 in four seasons without the legendary quarterback, while not winning a single playoff game. Belichick deserves a lot of the blame for the Patriots’ inability to find the right quarterback or offensive coordinator to keep this offense at least competitive after the loss of Brady and, subsequently, after the loss of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Belichick also deserves a lot of the blame for some of the Patriots’ poor personnel decisions in recent years as the Patriots GM, particularly their drafts.

However, Belichick had proven to still be one of the best defensive minds in the game and it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots defense will be as good as it was a year ago without him. The Patriots did promote internally from that defense, making Jerod Mayo their new head coach, but Mayo is very young and inexperienced for a head coaching hire and never called plays or held the title defensive coordinator, so it’s fair to wonder if he can continue having the same success on that side of the ball without one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time leading the way, especially since defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance.

The Patriots also did very little in the way of adding new talent to this team this off-season, opting to use some of their cap space to lock in key members of last year’s team and saving the rest, so this roster still very much resembles the one built by Belichick as a GM. The Patriots still have about 46 million in cap space, most in the NFL, and have the 6th lowest average annual value in the league, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage. 

The Patriots should still be much healthier than a year ago and they did use their 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback Drake Maye, but Maye enters the league pretty raw and the Patriots haven’t really given him the talent around him that he needs to succeed. In fact, it’s very possible the Patriots sit Maye for at least a big chunk of his rookie season so he can sit and learn, rather than putting him in a tough situation and letting him potentially develop bad habits.

The Patriots brought back Jacoby Brissett, their former backup, to be the stopgap quarterback until they are ready to play Maye. in 48 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, Brissett hasn’t been bad, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 51 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions (85.3 QB rating), and it wouldn’t be hard for either Brissett or Maye to be better than what the Patriots had at quarterback last year, when their ranked 30th in the league with a 73.8 QB rating, but Brissett isn’t the kind of quarterback who can elevate a poor supporting cast and it’s unlikely he finds much success this season. It’s ultimately very likely that the Patriots will have no choice but to throw Maye into the fire earlier than they’d like, with Brissett unlikely to win many games. Brissett is not a bad stopgap and Maye has a huge upside, but for 2024, this looks like a pretty weak quarterback situation, relative to the rest of the league.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

One group that should be healthier than a year ago in the Patriots’ receiving corps. This was already a weak group going into last season, but things went from bad to worse when they lost Kendrick Bourne, who had a 37/406/4 slash line and a 1.73 yards per route run average in 8 games, to a torn ACL. In Bourne’s absence, 6th round rookie DeMario Douglas took on a bigger role and did pretty well, posting a 39/418/0 slash line in a 9-game stretch and finishing the season with a 49/561/0 slash line and a 1.70 yards per route run average, but he also missed significant time with injuries. This season Bourne and Douglas both return, the former after re-signing on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season, and both should play in three wide receiver sets with second round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. 

The Patriots also used a 4th round pick on Javon Baker, signed veteran KJ Osborn in free agency, and have JuJu Smith-Schuster and TyQuan Thornton, who they have made big investments in recently, Smith-Schuster on a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal given last off-season and Thornton being added in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. However, I don’t have high expectations for any of those four players.

Osborn has been the #3 wide receiver with the Vikings for the past three seasons, but he’s been underwhelming, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, and he only signed for 1-year and 4 million this off-season. Baker is a rookie and not a highly drafted one. Thornton was highly drafted, but has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, averaging just 0.73 yards per route run and missing 12 games with injury. Smith-Schuster has a history of some success, exceeding 2 yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has an average of just 1.40 yards per route run in five seasons since and even that is inflated by a 1.77 yards per route run average he had in 2022 with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football.

Even their top-3 of Bourne, Douglas, and Polk have their uncertainties. Obviously Polk is a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one, even if he enters the league with a lot of upside. Bourne is coming off of a major injury and, even if he bounces back to form, he’s still an underwhelming #1 option, with a 1.67 yards per route run average in the past four seasons combined. Douglas, meanwhile, was only a 6th round pick a year ago and, while he showed promise as a rookie, it was in a very limited sample size. This group has some options and should be better than a year ago, but they are pretty underwhelming overall.

With the issues they have at wide receiver, expect tight end Hunter Henry to be a big part of the offense again, after he finished third on the team in catches, second in receiving yards, and first in touchdowns last season. Still, that only translated to a 42/419/6 slash line, the worst receiving yardage total of his 8 seasons in the league, and a 1.13 yards per route run average, also a career worst. Quarterback play was part of the problem for Henry, as it was for all of these pass catcher, but he has a 1.27 yards per route run average over the past four seasons total and now heads into his age 30 season. 

The Patriots gave Henry a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal to stay as a free agent this off-season, making him the 14th highest paid tight end in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he could easily prove to not be worth that. Behind Henry, the Patriots signed another underwhelming veteran, Austin Hooper, on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar deal. In total, Hooper has averaged 1.22 yards per route run over the past four seasons, including 0.87 yards per route run last season, and he now heads into his age 30 season. Neither Henry nor Hooper are particularly good blockers either. Overall, this is a very underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Aside from the receiving corps, the Patriots’ offensive line was their biggest need coming into the off-season. The Patriots did re-sign Mike Onwenu on a well-deserved 3-year, 57 million dollar deal, after the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 in the four seasons of his rookie deal, with his career worst year in 2023 becoming a lot better once the Patriots moved him to right tackle in week 7 (79.3 PFF grade from then on). However, the Patriots didn’t do anything to improve this group this off-season and it’s hard to see how they’ll be better than a year ago, when they ranked 12th on PFF in run blocking grade and 29th in pass blocking grade.

Left tackle Trent Brown was injury prone last season, limited to 579 snaps in 11 games, but he played well when on the field with a 80.2 PFF grade and he signed elsewhere as a free agent this off-season. In his place, the Patriots signed veteran Chukwuma Okorafor and used a third round pick on Caeden Walllace. Okorafor was a starter for the Steelers for three and a half seasons starting in 2020 (55 starts), but he posted mediocre grades of 57.5, 63.6, 61.2, and 60.4 and was eventually benched mid-season during the 2023 season and then subsequently cut this off-season. Okorafor also has mostly played at the easier right tackle spot, with just two career starts at left tackle, coming back in his rookie season in 2018, so he could really struggle on the blindside for the Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up getting benched mid-season for the second straight year in favor of the rookie Wallace, but Wallace probably wouldn’t fare much better.

On the interior of the offensive line, the Patriots have center David Andrews, who is probably their second best offensive lineman behind Onwenu, right guard Sidy Sow, a 2023 4th round pick who was decent with a 64.4 PFF grade in 13 starts after Onwenu moved to right tackle last season, and left guard Cole Strange, a 2022 1st round pick who has been a disappointment thus far and who is also coming off of a significant knee injury that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season.

Andrews has made 117 starts in eight healthy seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, with six seasons above 70, including a 71.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s going into his age 32 season now and could start declining. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, so even if he declines he could remain at least a solid starter, but any decline from him would be a concern for an offensive line that is already in rough shape. Strange, meanwhile, struggled with a 54.6 PFF grade on 982 snaps as a rookie before improving slightly with a 64.6 PFF grade on 564 snaps last season before getting hurt. If he wasn’t coming off of an injury, I would like his chances of taking a step forward in year three, but the injury throws a lot of uncertainty to the mix, as he could miss time to begin the year and/or not be 100% when he returns.

If Strange misses time, the Patriots replacement options are pretty underwhelming. Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi were 4th and 5th round picks in 2023, but Andrews played just 71 mediocre snaps as a rookie, while Mafi struggled mightily with a 32.3 PFF grade in 458 snaps. The Patriots also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Layden Robinson to give themselves some additional depth on the interior, but he also could struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. With Trent Brown gone and Cole Strange having injury uncertainty, this offensive line could be even worse than a year ago, when they were already an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Another key offensive playmaker the Patriots lost to injury last season was running back Rhomandre Stevenson, who missed the final five games. He only averaged 3.97 YPC on 156 carries, but that was largely because of the lack of talent around him on offense and he was significantly more efficient than the Patriots’ other running back Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged just 3.49 YPC, leading the team with 184 carries because he stayed healthy all season. A 4th round pick in 2021, Stevenson still has a career 4.54 YPC average on 499 carries in three seasons in the league, despite his underwhelming average last season, and he also contributes in the passing game with a 1.17 yards per route run average and 121 catches in 41 career games. Still only in his age 26 season, Stevenson should be at least a solid all-around back again in 2024.

The Patriots also signed Antonio Gibson to replace Ezekiel Elliott as the #2 back. He only has a career 4.12 YPC average on 642 carries, but has mostly played on mediocre offenses in Washington and he also contributes in the passing game with a career 1.30 yards per route run average and 172 catches in 61 career games, so he’s an above average #2 back. Stevenson, who was on pace for 284 touches last season before getting hurt, will remain the lead back, but Gibson should have a significant role behind him. Depth behind Stevenson and Gibson is a concern because their third back is Kevin Harris, a 2022 6th round pick with just 37 career touches, but the Patriots at least have a solid top-2 at this position.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots defense could have trouble repeating their solid play from a year ago without Bill Belichick at the helm, but there are some reasons for optimism with this group, as the Patriots also had significant injuries on this side of the ball and should be healthier in 2024. One of their biggest injury losses last season was top edge defender Matt Judon, who only played 184 snaps in 4 games due to injury and who had a 70.2 PFF grade with 4 sacks, 5 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. His absence was huge because the Patriots struggled to create pressure off the edge without him.

Anfernee Jennings led this group in snaps played with 677 and, while he was a strong run defender, he struggled mightily as a pass rusher with just 1.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate. Deatrich Wise (615 snaps) also struggled as a pass rusher with 4.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate and didn’t even play the run well either, leading to him finishing the year with a 54.3 grade overall on PFF. Keion White (522 snaps) was mostly just a run stopper as well, finishing the season with 1 sack, 4 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate, while Josh Uche was an effective situational pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but only saw 331 snaps on the season because the Patriots didn’t trust his run defense.

Judon returns in 2024 to a group that is otherwise the same. Prior his injury plagued 2023, Judon had 58.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in 96 games over his previous six seasons, while only missing three games total, so the bounce back potential is high here, but it’s also worth noting that he’s going into his age 32 season and could decline in 2024. Even if he does, he should still be a welcome re-addition, but the Patriots might not be getting the best version of Judon at this point in his career. Wise also might have some bounce back potential, as he had 15 sacks, 29 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate in 63 games in his previous four seasons prior to last season, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him. 

Jennings and White will likely remain in base package roles, with the former re-signing on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Jennings was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has just a 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s also exceeded 70 in run defense grade on PFF in every season in the league except 2021, when he missed the whole season due to injury. White, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 and could take a step forward in year two after posting a 64.2 overall grade as a rookie, but he’ll likely always remain a better run defender than pass rusher.

Uche also re-signed with the Patriots this off-season on an incentivized 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will likely remain in a sub package role. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Uche has 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate in 51 career games, but he’s also never played more than 373 snaps in a season because of his struggles against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. This group should be better in 2024 because of the return of Matt Judon and they have some decent situational players at this position aside from Judon, but Judon and arguably their second best all-around edge defender Deatrich Wise are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

With Judon missing most of last season, the Patriots were led in sacks by an interior defender, Christian Barmore, who had 8.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore has been a good pass rusher throughout his career, exceeding 70 in pass rush grade on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games, but last season was the first season he didn’t struggle against the run, going from a 45.8 PFF run defense grade and a 46.9 PFF run defense grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively to a 67.8 PFF run defense grade last season. 

As a result of that, Barmore had his best overall PFF grade at 83.8, up significantly from 63.5 and 68.6 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s possible he regresses as a run defender in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s turned a corner in that aspect of his game and, even if he hasn’t, he should remain a high level pass rusher at the very least. Still only going into his age 25 season, the Patriots wisely locked Barmore up long-term on a 4-year, 83 million dollar deal that makes him the 11th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

Davon Godchaux will remain the starter next to Barmore, but he’s not nearly as good of a player. Godchaux has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 4.4% pressure rate in seven seasons in the league, but that fell to an all-time low of 2.1% in 2023 and he wasn’t that good as a run defender either, unlike earlier in his career. As a result, he fell to an overall grade of 50.2 on 685 snaps on PFF, his second straight overall grade under 60 after posting a 53.1 PFF grade on 659 snaps in 2022. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect Godchaux to continue struggling in 2024.

The Patriots parted ways with veteran Lawrence Guy this off-season, which isn’t really a loss because he had a 45.5 PFF grade on 522 snaps last season, but the Patriots still don’t really have good depth at this position. They signed Armon Watts in free agency and he’s at least a solid situational pass rusher, with a career 7.2% pressure rate, but he’s not much of a run defender and, as a result, has played just 466 snaps per season over the past four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

Daniel Ekuale returns after missing all but three games (53 snaps) due to injury last season, but he’s not a great depth option either, only exceeding 60 on PFF in two of six seasons in the league, while never playing more than 362 snaps in a season. To mask their lack of depth on the interior, expect the Patriots to use Keion White and Deatrich Wise, their two biggest edge defenders at 6-5 290 and 6-5 280 respectively, on the interior more frequently, something they did somewhat regularly in 2023. Christian Barmore is one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher, but this is a very top heavy position group. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest concern for this defense without Belichick is that the players who struggled elsewhere, but broke out with the Patriots will regress without Belichick’s guidance and scheme. A big example of that is top linebacker Jahlani Tavai. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2019, Tavai struggled in his first home, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 respectively, before landing in New England, where he has posted PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 on snap counts of 570 and 838 over the past two seasons respectively. Going into his age 28 season, Tavai should theoretically be in his prime, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress in 2024 due to the coaching change, which would be a big blow to this defense, as he was arguably their best defensive player a year ago.

Jawhaun Bentley will remain the other every down linebacker next to Tavai. A 5th round pick in 2018, Bentley showed promise early in his career in limited action, before breaking out in a larger role over the past few seasons, with PFF grades of 68.2, 80.4, and 65.8 on snap counts of 693, 907, and 984 over the past three seasons respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He might miss the leadership of his former head coach, but I wouldn’t consider him as strong a candidate to regress as Tavai. 

Mack Wilson excelled as the third linebacker with a 81.5 PFF grade on 305 snaps last season, but wasn’t brought back for 2024. In Wilson’s place, the Patriots signed Sione Takitaki, who should be a solid third linebacker, though not as good as Wilson was a year ago. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Takitaki has been a part-time player his whole career, maxing out at 563 snaps in a season, with an average of 377 snaps per season, but he’s always played pretty well, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 71.2 PFF grade on 435 snaps in 2020. 

In 2023, Takitaki played a career high in snaps and received a 68.6 PFF grade. He probably won’t play quite as much in New England unless there are injuries, but he should be a useful role player in base packages. This is a solid linebacking corps, but they might not get the high level play they got a year ago, with Mack Wilson gone and Bill Belichick no longer around to get the most out of Jahlani Tavai.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with Matt Judon, the other big injury loss on the Patriots’ defense last season was cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was only a rookie, but the first round pick entered the league with a ton of potential and had a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps through four games before getting hurt. It’s a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect Gonzalez to keep that up over the course of a whole season, but he at least has the potential to and, even if he doesn’t, he should still be an above average starter.

Marcus Jones also missed most of last season with injury, limited to 44 snaps in two games, and he should be their primary slot cornerback in 2024 now that he’s healthy again. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Jones is still unproven, only playing 371 snaps as a rookie before barely playing last season, but he had a 67.6 grade as a rookie and a 64.2 grade last season, so he’s flashed at least some potential and is probably the Patriots best option on the slot.

Myles Bryant (852 snaps), JC Jackson (439 snaps), and Jack Jones (127 snaps) are all no longer with the team, but they mostly struggled last season, with PFF grades of 66.6, 35.4, and 46.6 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. They weren’t replaced, but the Patriots at least have Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones back healthy. Jonathan Jones (724 snaps) does return and he figures to remain a starter. He had a 76.5 PFF grade last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in his last five seasons, with three seasons over 70 and a career best 80.7 in 2020. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he should remain at least a solid starting outside cornerback opposite Gonzalez, with Jones likely on the slot.

Their other slot options are Shaun Wade and Alex Austin, who return after decent seasons in limited roles in 2023, with PFF grades of 66.3 and 61.8 on snap counts of 348 and 211 respectively. Wade was a 5th round pick in 2021 and only played 29 snaps in two seasons prior to last season, so he’s a very unproven option, but he at least has some upside. Austin is in a similar situation as an unproven former late round pick, going in the 7th round in 2023. They’re pretty underwhelming depth options and will almost definitely remain behind Marcus Jones on the depth chart as long as he stays healthy.

To mask their lack of depth at cornerback, the Patriots could use three safeties together in sub packages frequently. Jalen Mills, their 3rd safety a year ago, is no longer with the team after playing 459 snaps, but he had a 59.1 PFF grade and the Patriots have 2023 3rd round pick Marte Mapu waiting in the wings, so Mills won’t really be missed. Mapu had a 50.0 PFF grade on 204 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to take a step forward in year two. He’s a versatile player who can play on the slot and at linebacker if needed.

Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger remain as the starters and both are also versatile. Dugger, a 2nd round pick in 2020, was re-signed to a 4-year, 58 million dollar deal this off-season after being transition tagged, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value. Dugger isn’t quite worth that kind of money, but he’s a good, young player that the Patriots couldn’t afford to let leave, finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league. Last season was actually the lowest PFF grade of his career, as he finished at 61.7, but he had a 78.4 PFF grade the year before and, only in his age 28 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024.

Peppers, on the other hand, is coming off of a dominant season with a 87.3 PFF grade on 955 snaps, but, like Jahlani Tavai, he’s another player who could regress significantly without Belichick around. A first round pick in 2017, Peppers was underwhelming in his first two stops with the Browns and Giants, finishing in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all but one season, but he jumped to a 75.0 PFF grade in a part-time role (398) in his first season in New England in 2022 and then broke out even further as an every down player in 2023. 

Still only in his age 29 season, Peppers is theoretically still in his prime, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll regress without the head coach who got the most out of him over the past two seasons. This secondary has a lot of upside if Christian Gonzalez can reach his potential and Jabrill Peppers can avoid regressing, but their depth is also suspect and if Gonzalez doesn’t reach his potential and Peppers regresses, they will lack any true impact players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The big off-season move the Patriots made was firing long-time head coach and GM Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defensive leadership would be missed, but letting go of him gave the Patriots an opportunity to enter a new era and, armed with the 3rd overall pick and significant cap space, the Patriots had the ammunition to improve in a hurry. Instead, they saved most of their cap space and what money they did spend they mostly spent re-signing players that Belichick had brought in. 

The Patriots did use the 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, but he enters the league pretty raw and doesn’t have the talent he needs around him to have success right away. The Patriots should still be healthier than a year ago and it would be hard for their quarterback situation to be as bad as it was a year ago, which could turn some of their close losses from a year ago into close wins, but, on the other hand, their defense could regress without Belichick’s leadership and, overall, this team doesn’t look anywhere near talented enough to compete even for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC.

Update: Continuing with their rebuild, the Patriots traded Matt Judon to the Falcons for a draft pick. They’ll also be without Christian Barmore for the start of the season for medical reasons. Add in the fact that they have one of the toughest schedules in the league and it’s hard to see the Patriots winning more than a few games.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in AFC East