Quarterbacks

The Broncos won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, but they haven’t made the playoffs since, the second longest streak of missing the post-season in the league. The quarterback position has been a big part of the problem. Peyton Manning retired after that Super Bowl victory and the Broncos subsequently started eleven different quarterbacks over the next six seasons, none of whom had any sustained success. Fed up with their quarterback carousel, the Broncos made a splash move during the 2022 off-season, acquiring veteran Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seahawks in a trade that cost the Broncos two first round picks, two second round picks, and a trio of players.

The Broncos felt Wilson was the missing piece on a Super Bowl contending team, but instead Wilson ended up regressing mightily, completing just 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 30 starts, while going just 11-19, with no playoff appearances. Making matters worse, the Broncos gave Wilson a new 5-year, 242.5 million dollar deal when they acquired him. This off-season, the Broncos moved on from Wilson, despite owing him 39 million guaranteed, most of which they will still have to pay him, even after Wilson signed with the Steelers. Releasing Wilson this off-season ensures the Broncos won’t have to pay him in 2025, when he would have been guaranteed 37 million had he stayed on the roster in 2024, but the Broncos are still paying a big salary in 2024 to a player who isn’t even on their roster.

Still having to pay Wilson’s salary, the Broncos lacked the financial flexibility to add another starting caliber quarterback this off-season and were basically forced to choose between using a high draft pick on a cost-controlled young quarterback or starting a backup caliber quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, Wilson’s backup in 2023, who has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 pass attempts in five seasons in the league. The Broncos went with the former option, but the problem was five quarterbacks were drafted in the eleven picks before them in this year’s draft, forcing the Broncos to unsettle for Bo Nix, the 6th quarterback in this draft class. Nix was a productive college player, but doesn’t have elite physical traits and is already going into his age 24 season. Had there not been an early run on quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Nix could have easily been a second or third round pick.

Including the two first round picks they gave up for Wilson, the Broncos have now used their last three first round picks on quarterbacks, plus a pair of second round picks they gave up for Wilson. The Broncos were also missing their second round pick in this year’s draft from a trade for head coach Sean Payton, who disappointed in his first season in Denver. Wilson still getting paid most of his salary in 2024 also made it tough for the Broncos to build this team around the quarterback, after finishing just 24th in DVOA in 2023. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league. Unless Nix or Stidham can outperform expectations, the Broncos also have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. The Broncos may be better set up for the future now as a result of ditching Wilson and drafting Nix, but, especially in the loaded AFC, the Broncos look like an extreme longshot to end their post-season drought in 2024.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

With limited financial flexibility, the Broncos moved on from wide receiver Jerry Jeudy this off-season, trading him to the Browns for just a pair of late round picks to get out of the 12.987 million they would have owed him this season. Jeudy never lived up to being selected in the first round in 2019, but he’ll still be missed, as he was only slightly behind the team leader in terms of receiving yards and yards per route run at the wide receiver position, with a 54/758/2 slash line and a 1.65 yards per route run average.

Courtland Sutton was the team leader at the wide receiver position with a 1.66 yards per route run average and a 59/777/10 slash line. Sutton seemingly had a breakout season in his second season in the league in 2019 with a 72/1112/6 slash line and a 2.08 yards per route run average, but he missed almost all of 2020 with injury and hasn’t been the same in three seasons since, averaging 794 yards per season, while totaling a 1.54 yards per route run average. Now going into his age 29 season, Sutton is unlikely to bounce back to his 2019 form and is an underwhelming #1 wide receiver, but he’s still a solid wide receiver overall.

To replace Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos will give more playing time to 2023 2nd round pick Marvin Mims and they also signed veteran Josh Reynolds to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal. Mims didn’t play much as a rookie (384 snaps), but he had a decent 1.54 yards per route run average and he has the upside to translate that to a larger role in his second season in the league in 2024, so he might not be much of a downgrade from Jeudy. Reynolds, meanwhile, is a mediocre veteran with an average of 1.31 yards per route run and 494 yards per season over the past three seasons, but he should be an upgrade over Brandon Johnson (343 snaps) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (428 snaps), who combined to average just 1.02 yards per route run last season.

Both Johnson and Humphrey will be reserves at best this season, if they even make the roster. Undrafted free agents in 2019 and 2022 respectively, they have averaged just 0.94 and 1.01 yards per route run respectively in their careers. Most likely the Broncos’ top reserves will be 4th round rookie Troy Franklin and veteran Tim Patrick, who is coming off of two straight seasons missed due to separate injuries. Tim Patrick has a career 1.48 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 in his last two healthy seasons, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be after two straight major injuries, especially since he’s going into his age 31 season now.

At tight end, Adam Trautman started for most of the season, but he struggled mightily as a receiver, with just a 22/204/3 slash line and a 0.59 yards per route run average. He’s been better than that in the past, but not much, with an average of 0.96 yards per route run and 82 catches in 60 games in four seasons in the league. Backup tight end Lucas Krull wasn’t much better, with an average of 0.73 yards per route run in the first significant action of the 2022 undrafted free agent’s career.

Fortunately, the Broncos are getting Greg Dulcich back from an injury plagued season and he’s a much better receiving option, as the 2022 3rd round pick had a 1.30 yards per route run average and a 33/411/2 slash line as a rookie, before being limited to 32 snaps last season. He should be the primary receiving tight end, with Trautman serving more as a blocker, an aspect of the game he’s much better in. This is still an underwhelming receiving corps though.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos were also unable to keep center Lloyd Cushenberry this off-season, watching him signing with the Titans on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal after a 2023 season in which he made all 17 starts and finished with a 73.2 PFF grade. Not only is that a big loss, but the Broncos also didn’t really do anything to replace him. Instead, they will have a three way competition for the starting job between 2022 5th round pick Luke Wattenberg, who has played just 129 career snaps, 2023 7th round pick Alex Forsyth, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and veteran Sam Mustipher, their only off-season addition, who has mostly been underwhelming in 42 starts in five seasons in the league with the Bears and Ravens. 

By virtue of being the only one with experience, Mustipher is probably the favorite for the job, but it’s very possible that multiple of these players end up making starts as the Broncos try to find an answer at the position, an answer that probably isn’t on this roster. The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, but they’re unlikely to have the same health as they did a year ago, when those four combined to miss just one game, and they really lack depth behind them, which could easily get exposed this season when injuries strike. Also of concern is the fact that their tackles are both on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Garett Bolles going into his age 32 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey going into his age 30 season. 

Neither tackle has shown signs of decline yet, but both could start declining in 2024. Bolles has finished with a PFF grade above 70 in all seven seasons in the league (99 starts), while McGlinchey has finished above 60 in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, so both are starting from a pretty high base point, but it would still noticeably hurt this offensive line if one or both wasn’t as good as a year ago. If either of them miss time in 2024, they would likely be replaced by either Quinn Bailey, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has played just 279 mediocre snaps in his career, or Matt Peart, a 2020 3rd round pick who has been middling at best in 7 career starts.

At guard, the Broncos have Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz on the left and right side respectively. Powers is only a marginal starter, making 53 starts in the past four seasons with PFF grades of 59.4, 66.3, 62.9, and 61.5, but Meinerz is one of the best guards in the league and arguably the Broncos’ best player overall. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 67.4 PFF grade as a rookie to a 77.7 PFF grade in his second season to a 83.7 PFF grade last season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect Meinerz to continue playing at a high level in 2024, even if he might not quite match last season’s dominant performance. If either Powers or Meinerz misses time, the Broncos would probably turn to Calvin Throckmorton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who has made 27 starts over the past three seasons, but who has posted PFF grades of 42.4, 38.4, and 47.9 over those three seasons. The Broncos had an above average offensive line a year ago, but they lost center Lloyd Cushenberry, they probably won’t have the same health as they had a year ago, their tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is a big problem, so I would expect this offensive line to be significantly worse than it was a year ago, when they ranked 5th on PFF in pass block grade and 4th in run block grade.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Javonte Williams was the Broncos lead back last season and struggled mightily, with an average of 3.57 YPC on 217 carries. He was in his first year back from a torn ACL and the 2021 2nd round pick had averaged 4.43 YPC on 250 carries in the year and a half before his injury, so he has some bounce back potential in 2024, another year removed from that ACL tear. Williams also was useful as a receiver last season, with a 47/228/2 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average, in line with his career average of 1.24. However, there is still going to be an open competition for roles in this backfield, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Williams saw a smaller role in 2024.

Williams had a passing down role last season, but Samaje Perine was the primary passing down back and was more effective. Perine only had 53 carries, taking advantage of defenses expecting the pass to average 4.49 YPC on those carries, but he added a 50/455/0 slash line and averaged 2.09 yards per route run as a receiver. He only has a career 1.35 yards per route run average, so he probably won’t be as effective in that aspect again in 2024, but there’s a good chance he continues being the primary passing down back. He only has 454 carries in seven seasons in the league though (64.9 carries per season) and probably isn’t a realistic option for a bigger role as a runner.

Jaleel McLaughin flashed potential as a change of pace option last season, despite being an undrafted rookie, averaging 5.39 YPC on 76 carries, while adding a 31/160/2 slash line and 1.63 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s undersized (5-7 187) and unproven and probably not a real candidate for a big workload, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw more work as a runner and a pass catcher in year two. The Broncos also used a 5th round pick on Audric Estime and he could earn a role in this backfield even as a rookie. Most likely, Williams will remain the lead back, Perine the passing down back, McLaughlin the change of pace back, and Estime will be a deep reserve, but playing time is up for grabs in an unsettled position group, after averaging 4.01 YPC as a team last season (21st in the NFL), despite an offensive line was one of the best in the league in run blocking

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

With limited financial flexibility, their first round pick being spent on a quarterback, and no second round pick after the Sean Payton trade last off-season, the Broncos had very limited avenues to improve their defense this off-season, a big problem considering the Broncos finished last season 30th in defensive DVOA. In fact, in terms of snaps played, the Broncos brought back 8 of their top-12 on defense from a year ago and most of the players they didn’t retain were solid players who either weren’t adequately replaced or who were at least not upgraded on.

The exception is at the interior defender position, where the Broncos let go of Jonathan Harris, who had a 52.0 PFF grade on 529 snaps in 2023, and upgraded on him by acquiring veteran John Franklin-Myers from the Jets in a trade for a late round pick. Franklin-Myers was then given a restructured 2-year, 15 million dollar deal after being acquired. Franklin-Myers has lined up on the edge and on the interior throughout his career and has consistently gotten pressure regardless of where he’s lined up, totaling 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate over the past four seasons, while posting PFF grades of 71.5, 80.3, 82.6, and 70.4 on snap counts of 500, 717, 643, and 626 respectively. He’s not as good against the run and he probably won’t be as efficient of a pass rusher with the Broncos since he’ll be lining up primarily on the interior, where it’s tougher to get consistent pressure, but he should still be a very useful interior pass rusher and a big upgrade over Jonathan Harris.

Along with Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen and DJ Jones will also play significant roles at the interior defender spot. Allen and Jones were added as free agents in the 2023 off-season and 2022 off-season respectively on contracts worth 45.75 million over 3 years and 30 million over 3 years respectively. Allen lived up to his contract in his first season in Denver last season, with a 71.9 PFF grade on 913 snaps, his second straight above average season (72.7 grade on 660 snaps in 2022), after the 2019 3rd round pick struggled in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons. Only in his age 27 season, Allen seems to have permanently turned a corner as a player and should remain an above average every down player. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games over the past two seasons, but he’s also a capable run defender.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disappointment in two years in Denver, with a 63.6 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2022 and a 56.2 PFF grade on 568 snaps in 2023. He had a 73.7 PFF grade on 654 snaps in his final season in San Francisco in 2021, which is why he got that big contract from the Broncos, but he looks like a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, finishing below 70 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league and below 60 in three of those six seasons. He’s been a decent pass rusher in two seasons in Denver, with 4 sacks, 3 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 31 games, but he’s consistently struggled against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Jones figure to play the vast majority of the snaps at the interior defender position for the Broncos in 2024, but if any of them get hurt, the Broncos would be in trouble because their depth is very suspect behind their top-3. Matt Henningsen is a 2022 6th round pick who has played 456 mediocre snaps in two seasons in the league. Malcolm Roach is a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played just 258 snaps per season in four seasons in the league and has mostly struggled, finishing below 50 on PFF in three of those four seasons. Angelo Blackson is going into his 10th season in the league, but has only once finished above 60 on PFF, way back in 2017, while averaging 374 snaps per season, and now he heads into his age 32 season and is unlikely to improve. Adding John Franklin-Myers improves this group and he and Zach Allen should be a solid duo together inside, but there are still concerns with this group overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Not much changes at the edge defender position, which is not a bad thing because their top-3 of Jonathon Cooper (836 snaps), Nik Bonitto (524 snaps), and Baron Browning (445 snaps) was pretty solid a year ago. The Broncos also add third round rookie Jonah Elliss to the mix. He might not play a big role as a rookie, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Ronnie Perkins, who had a 38.9 PFF grade in the first 149 snaps of his 3-year career in 2023.

Baron Browning played the fewest snaps of the Broncos top-3 in 2023, but he was the best of the bunch with a 74.5 PFF grade and only played so few snaps because he missed seven games. His absence was noticeable, as the Broncos were noticeably better on defense when he was on the field. He was at his best against the run, but also was a very effective pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.2% pressure rate. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Browning wasn’t as good in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.9 and 55.3 on snap counts of 528 and 569 respectively, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 25 season, so he might have permanently turned a corner as a player and it’s possible he could be even better in his 4th season in the league in 2024.

Cooper and Bonitto were not as good against the run as Browning, but both were effective pass rushers, with Cooper totaling 8.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate and Bonitto totaling 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2021, Cooper was not as good in his first two seasons in the league, with a combined 9.1% pressure rate, so it’s possible he regresses, but he’s also still relatively young in his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner. 

Bonitto, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 52.4 PFF grade on 357 snaps as a rookie, but he too is young in his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner. Browning, Cooper, Bonitto are all one-year wonders in terms of playing at the level they played at least season, but they’re also all pretty young and could continue playing at a similar level to a year ago and the Broncos added extra young depth with third round rookie Jonah Elliss. This is a solid position group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In the linebacking corps, the big change is the Broncos lost Josey Jewell, who signed with the Panthers on a 3-year, 18.75 million, and replaced him with Cody Barton on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal, which should be a noticeable downgrade. While Jewell had a solid 67.2 PFF grade on 796 snaps last season, Barton had a 53.9 PFF grade on 844 snaps and has finished below 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Even in his best season in 2022, when he had a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps, he still would have been a downgrade from how Jewell performed a year ago.

Barton will start next to Alex Singleton, who will remain in an every down role after playing 1,089 snaps in 2023. Singleton is a good run defender, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four straight seasons and above 70 on PFF in run defense grade in three straight seasons, but he struggles in pass coverage, finishing below 60 on PFF in coverage grade in three of the past four seasons, including 2023, when he had a 78.2 run defense grade, but a 42.9 pass defense grade, leading to an overall 61.2 grade. Now going into his age 31 season, Singleton could start to decline even as a run defender and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finished the season as a below average overall every down linebacker.

For depth behind their two every down linebackers, the Broncos have Jonas Griffith and Drew Sanders. Griffith, a 2020 undrafted free agent, flashed potential with a 69.1 PFF grade on 255 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, but he fell to 52.9 on 336 snaps in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 with injury, so he’s a pretty underwhelming reserve option. Sanders, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily with a 37.2 PFF grade on 260 snaps as a rookie and is questionable for the start of the season after an off-season injury. Overall, this is a pretty underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Broncos lost a couple starters in the secondary, releasing safety Justin Simmons ahead of a 14.5 million dollar salary in 2024 and not re-signing cornerback Fabian Moreau as a free agent. To replace them, the Broncos signed safety Brandon Jones to a 3-year, 20 million dollar deal and cornerback Levi Wallace to a 1-year, 1.3 million dollar deal. Simmons had a 67.9 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, but he was heading into his age 31 season, so it’s understandable the Broncos moved on and signed a cheaper, younger replacement. 

Jones has only started 30 of the 54 games he’s played in four seasons in the league and he was mediocre in his first three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.8, 53.4, and 61.1, before having a mini breakout year with a 76.8 PFF grade on 464 snaps in 2023 (6 starts in 16 games). It’s unclear if he can translate that to a starting role in 2024 and I would expect him to at least regress somewhat in a bigger role, but he’s only in his age 26 season and is a former 3rd round pick, so he at least has upside.

Moreau, meanwhile, started the final 11 games of last season and had a decent 62.4 PFF grade. Wallace isn’t a downgrade from him, but he isn’t really an upgrade either. Wallace has started 63 of 76 games played over the past five seasons with mostly middling results, finishing with PFF grades of 68.6, 60.1, 66.5, 62.8, and 57.8 respectively. He’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could continue having similar results in 2024. 

Wallace will start outside opposite #1 cornerback Pat Surtain, with Ja’Quan McMillan on the slot in sub packages. Surtain, a first round pick in 2021, looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.8 PFF grade, but he fell to a 69.0 grade in 2023, in line with his 66.1 grade as a rookie in 2021. Still only in his age 24 season, Surtain has a huge upside long-term and could easily bounce back and be one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond, but that’s not a guarantee. 

McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2023, but had a 68.4 PFF grade as a rookie on 669 snaps. It’s only been a year since he went completely undrafted, so it’s possible he could regress in 2024, but there’s also a good chance he remains a solid slot cornerback. Behind their top-3 cornerbacks, the Broncos have Riley Moss, a 2023 3rd round pick who played 25 snaps as a rookie, and Damari Mathis, a 2022 4th round pick who had a decent rookie year with a 65.6 PFF grade on 794 snaps, before regressing mightily to a 35.2 PFF grade on 440 snaps in 2023. Both Moss and Mathis have decent upside and should provide solid depth.

At safety, Jones will start opposite PJ Locke, who took over as the starter mid-season when Kareem Jackson was suspended, benched, and released. Locke had a solid 64.0 PFF grade 538 snaps last season, but the 2019 undrafted free agent is still very inexperienced, having played just 145 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season. It’s possible he could continue being a decent starter over the course of a full season, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled with his expanded, season-long role.

The Broncos don’t have a choice but to start Locke because their other options are poor. Caden Sterns, a 2021 5th round pick, has played just 587 snaps in three seasons in the league, with just 2 snaps last season, while Delarrin Turner-Yell, a 2022 5th round pick, struggled mightily with a 40.9 PFF grade on 212 snaps in the first real defensive action of his career in 2023, after playing just one snap as a rookie. Both have theoretical upside, but both would almost definitely struggle if forced into a starting role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary has one top end talent in Patrick Surtain, but the rest of the group is pretty questionable.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos spent their 2022 and 2023 first and second round picks on a quarterback who is no longer on the roster, but will still collect about 38 million from the Broncos in 2024. They also gave up a first round pick (originally acquired when they traded away Bradley Chubb) and a second round pick for head coach Sean Payton, who has yet to move the needle as a head coach. The Broncos then spent their first round pick in this year’s draft on a quarterback in Bo Nix who could have gone in the second round. The result is a roster that looks like one of the worst in the league and a quarterback who is highly unlikely to be able to overcome the limitations of the rest of this roster, especially in the loaded AFC.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in AFC West