Quarterback

The Chargers transitioned perfectly at the quarterback position, going from 14 years of a future Hall of Fame quarterback Philip Rivers as their starter (2006-2019) to Justin Herbert, the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, who looks like he’s on a similar career track. The Chargers never made a Super Bowl with Rivers though, due to a variety of issues around the quarterback. The Chargers always had stars on both sides of the ball during Rivers’ career, but they struggled with injuries, a lack of depth when injuries struck, and coaching. Now four years into Herbert’s career, the Chargers have had similar issues, leading to Herbert going just 30-32 through four seasons with no playoff wins. 

Herbert hasn’t been the problem, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, while receiving PFF grades of 79.9, 90.0, 78.6, and 85.5, but they haven’t had the right supporting cast around him, nor have they had the right coach. Anthony Lynn was fired after Herbert’s rookie year and his replacement Brandon Staley was fired late last season, meaning the Chargers are going onto their third head coach of Herbert’s brief career, but fortunately they landed a great one in Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in his first stint as an NFL head coach with the 49ers from 2011-2014 and who has a career 147-52 record at the collegiate level with a National Championship, consistently getting the most out of his players at every stop.

Harbaugh is the right man for the job, but it could be a couple years before he gets this team in contention. Not only is this team coming off of an underwhelming 5-12 season, but the Chargers had salary cap issues this off-season and had to part ways with several key players, while not having a lot of financial flexibility to replace them. Herbert is coming off of the worst statistical career of his career, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but it wasn’t really his fault because the Chargers had a lot of issues around him on offense and he still finished 9th among quarterbacks in the league in terms of PFF grade.

Herbert also missed four games with injury last season and was replaced by Easton Stick, who lost all of those games, while completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.49 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Stick was a 5th round pick in 2019, but last season was the first action of his career. Without much financial flexibility this off-season, the Chargers brought Stick back as the backup for another year. You could do worse than him as a backup, but you could also do a lot better and if Herbert misses more time with injury, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble. The Chargers will obviously be hoping that doesn’t happen, because Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Chargers’ receiving corps was an issue last season. Going into the season, it didn’t look like an issue because they had veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were just two years removed from being one of the few wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2021, and they added 2023 first round pick Quentin Johnston to the mix as well. Williams and Allen played well when healthy, with yards per route run averages of 2.33 and 2.36, but Williams went down for the season after 3 games, while Allen missed 4 games of his own. On top of that, Quentin Johnston struggled as a rookie, finishing with just a 38/431/2 slash line and a 0.88 yards per route run average, despite plenty of opportunity.

Things are not looking better for this group in 2024. To get out of their tough cap situation, Allen and Williams were both let go this off-season, Allen in a trade for a 4th round pick and Williams as a cap casualty, owed 23.1 million and 20 million respectively going into their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Chargers will need more out of Quentin Johnston in his second season in the league and they will also be hoping for significant contributions from top holdover Joshua Palmer, second round rookie Ladd McConkey, and veteran free agent acquisition DJ Chark. 

Johnston has a lot of talent and could be significantly better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee. Palmer is their top returning receiver with a 38/581/2 slash line and a 1.71 yards per route run average, but the 2021 3rd round pick has never been a full-time starter and he only has a career 1.36 yards per route run average. McConkey has upside, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Chark is experienced, but has just a 1.39 yards per route run average in his 6-year career and he’s missed 30 games with injury in those 6 seasons. The Chargers also have 2023 5th round pick Derius Davis, who might have some upside, but he played just 149 snaps as a rookie and averaged just 0.90 yards per route run. Overall, it’s a pretty underwhelming group.

The Chargers can’t expect much out of their tight ends either. Gerald Everett wasn’t great as their starting tight end last season, with a 51/411/3 slash line and a 1.26 yards per route run average, but he’s no longer with the team and the tight ends the Chargers added to replace him, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, both look like downgrades. Dissly has averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and 251 yards per season over the past four seasons, while Hurst has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, was even worse in 2023, when he had a 18/184/1 slash line with a 0.82 yards per route run, and is now going into his age 31 season.

The Chargers still have Donald Parham, who had a 27/285/4 slash line and a 1.14 yards per route run average as the #2 tight end last season, but that was a career high in yardage for the career backup and he only has a career 1.32 yards per route run average, even in a limited role. This looks like one of the worst overall receiving corps in the league, even worse than a year ago, when they at least had Keenan Allen for most of the season before he got hurt.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With the Chargers’ receiving corps being the way it is, their best path to improving on offense this season is to have a better running game and offensive line. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in the NFL with 3.81 YPC, while their offensive line ranked dead last in PFF run blocking grade, though they at least ranked 13th in pass blocking grade. To improve their offensive line, the Chargers used the 5th overall pick on Joe Alt, who will instantly slot in at right tackle, and signed center Bradley Bozeman to a 1-year, 1.125 million dollar deal in free agency.

Alt should immediately be an upgrade over incumbent Trey Pipkins, who was marginal with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Pipkins has mostly been a marginal starter throughout his career (41 starts in five seasons in the league) and is best suited to be a swing tackle, which he will be now. Bozeman, meanwhile, should be a steal on a cheap 1-year deal, having finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (76 starts). He’s going into his age 30 season now, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Will Clapp, who had a 56.7 PFF grade in 11 starts at center last season and who is no longer with the Chargers.

Guard was also a position of weakness in 2023 and, without any additions being made this off-season, the Chargers will instead be hoping for better play out of their incumbent starters, Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer. It’s very possible the Chargers get that, though both would probably still be underwhelming even in a best case scenario. Johnson has the most upside, as he was a first round pick in 2022, and he had a decent rookie year with a 64.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, before falling to a 57.6 grade in 2023. There’s a good chance he at least bounces back to his rookie year form in 2024 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his third season in the league be his best yet.

Salyer, on the other hand, was just a 6th round pick in 2022. He surprised as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at left tackle as an injury replacement, but he couldn’t keep up that level of play in a new spot at right guard in 2023, finishing with a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. Now going into his third season in the league in 2024, Salyer has bounce back potential, but it’s worth noting that he wasn’t highly drafted and that he’s playing a different position than where he originally found some success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling. 

The Chargers will need better play out of Johnson and Salyer in 2024 because their only other options on the interior of their offensive line are Brenden James, a 2021 5th round pick who has played just 264 mediocre snaps in his career, and Jordan McFadden, a 2023 5th round pick, who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 163 snaps as a rookie last season. Both are underwhelming options even as interior reserves, which is what they will be, barring injuries.

The Chargers best offensive lineman by far last season was left tackle Rashawn Slater, who had a 76.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, excelling in pass protection, with just 3 sacks and 7 hits allowed all season. A first round pick in 2021, Slater also excelled as a rookie with a 83.6 PFF grade, with a season mostly lost due to injury in 2022 in between (175 snaps played). Still only in his age 25 season, Slater should continue playing at a high level in 2024 and could potentially get even better, now in his fourth season in the league. The offensive line should be better with the additions of Joe Alt and Bradley Bozeman, as well as potential bounce back seasons from their guards Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer, but there are still some reasons to be concerned about this group.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Another move the Chargers made this off-season towards trying to improve their running game was hiring offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is one of the best running game offensive coordinators in the league. Roman has had a lot of success with mobile quarterbacks, getting career best years out of Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson over the past decade or so, starting as an NFL coordinator with Harbaugh and the 49ers. Justin Herbert isn’t the same kind of athlete those quarterbacks are, but he’s a good runner for a quarterback, with 4.07 YPC on 224 carries in four seasons in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he reached a new career high in carries, while becoming more efficient, with Roman now calling the shots.

The Chargers also overhauled their running back room this off-season, bringing in a couple backs from Roman’s last stop in Baltimore, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. The Chargers’ run blocking was a big problem last season, but the running backs themselves were also a big part of the issue and, as such, the Chargers let their top two backs, Austin Ekeler (3.51 YPC on 179 carries) and Joshua Kelly (3.79 YPC on 107 carries) leave this off-season, replacing them with Edwards and Dobbins.

Edwards and Dobbins were teammates for the past four seasons in Baltimore, but weren’t active in the same game that often because of injuries, with Dobbins missing all but 9 games over the past three seasons, first tearing his ACL in 2021 and then tearing his achilles in 2023, and Edwards being limited to 26 games over that time period, also tearing his ACL around the same time as Dobbins did in 2021. Dobbins has shown plenty of potential in his career since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2020, averaging 5.76 YPC on 234 carries in 24 games, but it’s unclear if he’ll have the same level of explosiveness after two major injuries cost him most of the past three seasons. Dobbins also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson, who is the primary focus of opponents’ run defenses.

Edwards has a career 4.86 YPC average on 699 carries in 6 seasons in the league, but he also won’t have the benefit of sharing a backfield with Lamar Jackson anymore. In the 24 games Dobbins has played in his career, Edwards has averaged 9.17 carries per game, as opposed to 9.75 carries per game for Dobbins and I would expect a similar split in 2024, though Edwards will probably end up leading the team in carries because he’s less likely to miss time with injury than Dobbins, never having any injury issues in his career aside from the torn ACL that cost him about a season and a half from 2021-2022.

Both backs are good fits for the scheme and, with the Chargers’ run blocking likely being a lot better this season, both backs should be significantly more effective on the ground than Ekeler and Kelley were a year ago. Neither Edwards nor Dobbins contribute much in the passing game, with career averages of 0.78 yards per route run and 0.59 yards per route run respectively, but Greg Roman’s offense doesn’t usually target running backs out of the backfield much anyway. 

If either Edwards or Dobbins misses more time with injury, the other would likely take on a much bigger role, with their backup being either 6th round rookie Kimani Vidal or 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller, who has a career 2.49 YPC average on 55 carries. Both would be underwhelming options. This overhauled backfield isn’t a bad group and they should be more effective than the Chargers’ running backs a year ago, but they aren’t a great backfield either, lacking high end talent.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Chargers’ defense was also a problem a year ago and probably their biggest weakness was the interior defender position. Austin Johnson (641 snaps), Sebastian Joseph-Day (560 snaps), Morgan Fox (437 snaps), Nick Williams (399 snaps), Scott Matlock (266 snaps), and Otito Ogbonnia (223 snaps) all saw significant action at the interior defender spot for the Chargers last season and all finished with grades below 60 on PFF, some well below 60. Johnson, Joseph-Day, and Williams, who had grades of 45.7, 59.7, and 59.7, are no longer with the team, but the Chargers didn’t do much to replace them and this still figures to be a position of weakness in 2024.

Fox, Ogbonnia, and Matlock all figure to have significant roles and free agent addition Poona Ford and 4th round rookie Justin Eboigbe likely will as well. Ford was a good cheap signing on a 1-year, 1.79 million dollar deal. He only played 151 snaps in a deep position group with the Bills last season, but he finished above 60 on PFF in 4 of the previous 5 seasons with the Seahawks prior to joining the Bills, on an average of 570 snaps played per season. He’s at his best against the run, but isn’t a bad pass rusher, with 8.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 84 career games. He figures to at least have a base package role with the Chargers and could perform well in that capacity.

Morgan Fox is at least a useful interior pass rusher. He finished with an overall 58.0 PFF grade last season because of his issues against the run, but he did add 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s largely been the case for him throughout his career, as he’s finished below 60 on PFF as a run defender in six straight seasons, but has added 24 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate in 99 games. He should remain a similar player in 2024, though it’s a slight concern that he’s now going into his age 30 season.

The rest of this group should be mediocre at best, though they are young, so they at least have theoretical upside. The rookie Eboigbe could be a useful player long-term, but it would be a surprise if he contributed in a significant way in year one. Matlock was rookie last season, but he was only a 6th round pick and, even if he’s better in year two, he could still struggle, as he had a terrible 36.8 PFF grade last season. Ogbonnia was just a 5th round pick in 2022 and hasn’t shown much of anything in two years in the league, with PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 across 361 total snaps. It’s possible one takes a big step forward this season, but most likely they’ll all struggle. Even if they’re marginally better than a year ago, this should still be a weak position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position was supposed to be a big strength for the Chargers last season, with a dominant duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Mack held up his end of the bargain, dominating with a 91.8 PFF grade on 934 snaps, playing the run at a high level and adding 17 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate, but Bosa was limited to just 320 snaps in 9 games due to injury. Bosa still played at a pretty high level when on the field, with a PFF grade, 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate, but he wasn’t at his best, after exceeding 80 on PFF in 6 of the previous 7 seasons. 

Bosa should bounce back in 2024 if he’s healthy, only going into his age 29 season, but he’s had injury issues for years, missing 38 games in eight seasons in the league, including 20 games over the past two seasons, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he missed more time this season. He should still give them more than he gave them a year ago, which would be a boost for this defense. Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Mack doesn’t give them as much as he did a year ago, now going into his age 33 season.

In fact, Mack looked like he was declining going into last season, receiving PFF grades of 73.0 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, while totaling 14 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 24 games, after finishing above 85 on PFF in the previous seven seasons, with 70.5 sacks, 63 hits, and a 13.9% pressure rate in 110 games in those seven seasons. Mack bounced back to his prime form in 2023, but he could easily regress significantly again in 2024. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

With Bosa missing significant time last season, the Chargers’ expected third edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu had to play 852 snaps and he did pretty well, finishing with a 71.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2023, Tuipulotu could be even better in year two, but he’ll probably play a smaller role, unless Mack or Bosa miss extended time with injury. The Chargers also added veteran Bud Dupree in free agency to give them additional depth.

Dupree is a 9-year veteran who has started 99 of the 119 games he’s played in his career, while averaging 48.0 snaps per game and 634 snaps per season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’s best off in a reserve role. With Mack, Bosa, and Tuipulotu ahead of him on the depth chart, Dupree won’t play that many snaps in 2024, barring injury, which is a better role for him. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Eric Kendricks (847 snaps) and Kenneth Murray (968 snaps) were the Chargers top-2 linebackers a year ago and both are no longer with the team. Kendricks had a 72.3 PFF grade last season and was only let go because the Chargers had a tough cap situation and he was owed 6.5 million in what would have been his age 32 season in 2024. Murray, on the other hand, only had a 52.9 PFF grade, so he wouldn’t be missed too much, if not for the fact that the Chargers didn’t really replace him or Kendricks adequately. 

Added to the mix this off-season were Denzel Perryman, a free agent coming over on a cheap 1-year, 2.3 million dollar deal, and Junior Colson, a 3rd round rookie. The Chargers also could give bigger roles to 2023 3rd round pick Daiyan Henley, who played just 54 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Niemann, a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 322 snaps in three seasons in the league, 247 of which came last season. Perryman is by far the most experienced of the bunch, going into his 10th season in the league. 

Perryman has been a good run defender throughout his career, but he’s also consistently struggled in coverage and, as a result, only has played 38.8 snaps per game in his career. He’s also missed 39 games with injury in 9 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 32 season. He would be best as a pure base package run defender, but, given the state of this linebacking corps, he’ll probably have to play a bigger role, unless the young linebackers exceed expectations. This is an overall underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback was a problem for the Chargers’ defense last season as only one of their top-4 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one cornerback was Asante Samuel, a 2021 2nd round pick who broke out with a 73.9 PFF grade on 1,111 snaps in 2023, after improving from a 56.4 PFF grade on 693 snaps as a rookie to a 63.6 PFF grade on 971 snaps in his second season in the league in 2022. Samuel is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he’s also highly talented and only going into his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being an above average starter or even if he got better in 2024, now his 4th season in the league.

The Chargers didn’t retain Michael Davis, who struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade on 886 snaps in 15 games as the other starting cornerback in 2023, but his replacement, ex-Titan Kristian Fulton, isn’t necessarily going to be any better. Fulton was a 2nd round pick in 2020, but he was inconsistent throughout his four years in Tennessee, maxing out with a 66.1 PFF grade in 2021, missing 25 games due to injury, and finishing below 60 on PFF twice, including a career worst 46.4 PFF grade on 644 snaps in 12 games (11 starts) in 2023. Fulton is still relatively young in his age 26 season and was not a bad flier on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar contract, but time is running out for him to develop into even a consistently average starting cornerback.

Ja’Sir Taylor remains as the likely 3rd cornerback, despite finishing with a 56.2 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2023, in the first extended action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. It’s possible he could be better in his third season in the league in 2024, but he didn’t come into the league with a high upside and he’s really only likely to be their 3rd cornerback again because of the lack of a better option, with the Chargers other cornerback options being 2022 7th round pick Deane Leonard, who had a 57.3 PFF grade on 222 snaps in the first real action of his career in 2023, as well as rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, a pair of 5th round picks who would both almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie.

At safety, the Chargers finally got a healthy season out of Derwin James, after he had missed 32 games in the previous four seasons combined, not making it through a full season without missing time since his rookie season in 2018. However, James was not nearly the same player in 2023 as he had been in the past, finishing with a 60.1 PFF grade after surpassing 75 in each of his previous seasons in the league. James remained a great run defender, but had a lot of struggles in coverage. It’s possible his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities, but he’s also only going into his age 28 season, so he could have a lot of bounce back potential if he can regain his past form and continue avoiding injuries. Those are big ifs though.

Fortunately, a breakout season by the Chargers other safety Alohi Gilman made up for James disappointing. Gilman’s breakout season kind of came out of nowhere, as he was a 6th round pick in 2020, never played more than 474 snaps in a season prior to 2023, and had finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023. The market didn’t seem to buy that Gilman would continue playing at that level, leading to him re-signing with the Chargers for just 10.125 million over 2 years to this off-season, and it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2024, as he is the definition of a one-year wonder, but at least his regression could be offset by better play from Derwin James.

Dean Marlowe was the Chargers’ top reserve safety a year ago, with a 60.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, so that role will likely go to JT Woods. Woods was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot of potential, but he’s only played 91 snaps in two seasons in the league thus far. He’s unproven, but he could still have upside and isn’t a bad option as a top reserve. The Chargers still have issues at the cornerback position, but their secondary isn’t that bad overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers finally seem to have found the right head coach and, with quarterback Justin Herbert already in place, the Chargers have the all important head coach/quarterback combo correct. Unfortunately, the rest of this roster isn’t in great shape, after a 5-12 finish in 2023 and an off-season of salary cap problems, and it may take a couple years for Harbaugh to fully build the kind of team he wants to build. I would still expect this team to finish with a better record in 2024 than they had in 2023, but it will be tough for them to make the playoffs in the loaded AFC.

Update: I still don’t have the Chargers as a playoff team, but they have one of the weakest schedules in the conference, which helps their chances.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West