Quarterback

The Jets have by far the NFL’s longest playoff drought, not having made the post-season since the 2010 season, with every other team having made it since 2016 and all but four teams having made it since 2020. The quarterback position has been a huge part of the reason why. It’s not for lack of investment at the quarterback position though and, in fact, dating back to 2006, no team has spent more picks in the first two rounds on the quarterback position, taking six total, Kellen Clemens (2006), Mark Sanchez (2009), Geno Smith (2013), Christian Hackenburg (2016), Sam Darnold (2018), and Zach Wilson (2021). Remarkably, not a single one of those quarterbacks has panned out as a long-term starter for this team, even though three of them (Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson) were selected in the top-5 picks overall.

Last off-season, the Jets made another big investment at the quarterback position, trading a second round pick to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers and giving him a 3-year, 112.5 million dollar contract. The season before, the Jets ranked 5th in defensive DVOA, but 26th in offensive DVOA and finished 7-10 as a result, so they were hoping Rodgers could elevate their offense significantly and be the missing piece on a contender. 

Instead, Rodgers tore his achilles four snaps into the season, ending his season and essentially ending the Jets’ season at the same time. The Jets again finished 7-10 in a season that was very similar to the one before, as they ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA, but 32nd in offensive DVOA. The Jets could have added a veteran backup behind Rodgers last off-season, or traded for one mid-season, but instead they opted to stick with Zach Wilson as a developmental option behind Rodgers and that proved to be a mistake once he was forced back into the starting lineup. 

A massive bust as the 2nd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Wilson completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 22 starts in his first two seasons in the league and things weren’t any different in 2023, as he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 6.17 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 11 starts. Wilson was ultimately benched for third string Tim Boyle and then mid-season free agent signing Trevor Siemian, but neither of them were any better, combining to complete 58.3% of their passes for an average of 4.71 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Rodgers returns healthy for the 2024 season and the Jets added a better backup plan in Tyrod Taylor, an experienced 13-year veteran, albeit one who is now in his age 35 season. In his career, he has a decent 88.3 QB rating in 57 career starts, including a 89.1 QB rating in 5 starts last season. However, there is a lot of concern about what version of Rodgers the Jets are going to get. Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past decade and a half, with a career 103.6 QB rating, and he won back-to-back MVPs as recently as 2020-2021, but he had a down year by his standards in 2022, posting the 2nd worst PFF grade of his 15 years as a starter (77.5) and the worst QB rating of those 15 seasons (91.1), before missing almost all of last season, and now is heading into his age 41 season and coming off a major injury.

That being said, Rodgers will obviously be a huge upgrade over what the Jets had at quarterback last season and the Jets have a lot of talent on the rest of this roster, so they won’t need Rodgers to be at his best for this team to be contenders. Given the uncertainty about what level Rodgers will play at, there is a wide range of outcomes for the Jets this season, but the Jets will almost definitely be better than they were a year ago and the ceiling for this team is being one of the best in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The quarterback position wasn’t the Jets only issue on offense last season, as their offensive line struggled mightily, finishing 30th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 27th on PFF in team run blocking grade. With a narrow window as contenders, given the age of their starting quarterback, the Jets spent aggressively this off-season to try to surround Rodgers with enough talent to succeed and a big chunk of that investment was on the offensive line. 

Left tackle Tyron Smith was added on a heavily incentivized 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal, right tackle Morgan Moses and the remaining 1-year and 5.5 million on his contract were acquired for a mid round pick, and guard John Simpson was added on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Smith and Moses are going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, but they still played at a high level last season, they fit the Jets’ narrow contending window, and the Jets also planned for the future by using their first round pick on tackle Olu Fashanu. 

Smith has spent the previous 13 seasons with the Cowboys, who took him in the first round in the 2011 NFL Draft, and he’s been one of the best tackles in the league over that stretch, surpassing 70 on PFF in eleven of those seasons and surpassing 80 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including 2023, when he had a 83.8 PFF grade in 13 starts, despite his advanced age. Injuries have increasingly become a problem for him in recent years, as he’s missed 49 games in the past eight seasons, with at least three games missed in each of those seasons, and at his age he could start to decline significantly in the next year or two, but he’s starting from a high base point and it’s very possible he remains at least an above average starter for another year.

Moses hasn’t been quite as good as Smith, but he’s made 143 starts in the past nine seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all nine seasons, including six seasons over 70, most recently 2023, when he had a 77.6 PFF grade in 14 starts for the Ravens. He’s also only missed three games due to injury in those nine seasons, though those three games did come last season. It’s also very possible he declines this season, but even if he does, he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter. Even at their advanced ages, it wouldn’t be hard for Smith and Moses to be massive upgrades over what the Jets had at tackle last season, when all of the tackles who made a start for them finished below 60 on PFF except Alijah Vera-Tucker, who lasted five games before suffering a season ending injury.

With Smith and Moses locked into starting jobs at tackle, Vera-Tucker will move to guard, where he had a 66.8 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie in 2021, after being selected in the first round by the Jets in that year’s draft. In two seasons since that promising rookie year, Vera-Tucker has been hampered by injuries in a big way, missing 12 games total, but he has still shown his talent when on the field, with PFF grades of 71.8 and 71.7 respectively. Durability remains a concern for him, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and still has a lot of talent if he can stay on the field this time around.

The rookie Fashanu could also move to guard in the short-term, but most likely they’ll keep him as a reserve and start free agent acquisition John Simpson at the other guard spot, given the contract the Jets gave him. Simpson could prove to be a disappointment at that salary though. A 4th round pick by the Raiders in 2020, Simpson struggled in his first stint as a starter in 2021, posting a 52.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, and was subsequently benched for the 2022 season and then cut late that season. He then landed with the Ravens and surprisingly won a starting job, but continued struggling with a 56.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, his 4th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career. He figures to continue struggling in 2024 and could easily find himself benched for Fashanu before the season is over.

The only starter in the same spot as the end of last season on this offensive line is center Joe Tippmann, a 2023 2nd round pick who started the final 10 games of the season at center, after making 4 starts at guard earlier in the season. Compared to most of this offensive line last season, Tippmann wasn’t bad, posting a 61.0 PFF grade, and he could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to remain at least a capable starter on a much improved starting five.

Along with Fashanu, the Jets also bring back Xavier Newman, Wes Schweitzer, Max Mitchell, Jake Hanson, Chris Glaser, and Carter Warren as reserve options, although all six of them struggled last season, with PFF grades of 48.3, 52.7, 49.3, 51.8, 45.5, and 46.9 respectively on snap counts of 280, 149, 474, 244, 83, and 401 respectively. Schweitzer is the only one of them with any history of success, mostly holding up decently in 62 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, but he now heads into his age 31 season. Schweitzer could be a decent reserve and is probably the best of the bunch, but only by default. 

Newman was a 2022 undrafted free agent who had only played 4 career offensive snaps prior to last season. Chris Glaser is also a 2022 undrafted free agent and last season is the only action of his career. Carter Warren was a 4th round pick in 2023 and could have some untapped upside, but has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Max Mitchell was a 4th round pick in 2022 and also struggled with a 55.5 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie, so he also has a long way to develop to even be a solid backup. Jake Hanson was a 6th round pick in 2021 and played just 75 snaps prior to last season. This Jets’ offensive line is much improved from a year ago and it’s unlikely more than one or two of the aforementioned players will see any significant action, but it’s at least worth noting their depth drops off significantly after the rookie Fashanu, who could end up in the starting lineup in the likely event that John Simpson struggles.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Another big weakness on this offense a year ago was their receiving corps, outside of top wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson was the only Jets wide receiver to surpass even 1 yard per route run last season and, while quarterback play was a big part of the problem, the receiving corps itself was also part of the problem. Along with their offensive line additions, the Jets also focused on improving this group this off-season, signing veteran Mike Williams to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal and using a third round pick on Malachi Corley.

Williams is a similar short-term signing to Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. He isn’t as old, going into his age 30 season, but he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season after just three games. Williams also missed four games due to injury the year before, but he had a career best 76/1146/9 slash line in 16 games in 2021 prior to that and he has averaged 1.99 yards per route run over the past three seasons when on the field and has a career average of 1.79 yards per route run, so the upside is there if he can stay healthy and doesn’t start to decline due to age. Those are both big ifs, but he should be a worthwhile signing for a Jets team that is all in on competing at the highest level in 2024.

Corley, meanwhile, will compete for the #3 receiver job with veteran holdover Allen Lazard. Lazard was signed to a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal to give Rodgers a familiar target from his Green Bay days, but that contract was always an overpay compared to what the rest of the league would have paid him, as he had only averaged 557 yards per season and 1.52 yards per route run in the previous four seasons with Rodgers, and Lazard proved to be basically useless to the Jets when Rodgers got hurt, finishing with a 23/311/1 slash line and a 0.68 yards per route run average. 

Lazard even lost playing time down the stretch last season to undrafted rookies Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson, who weren’t any better with yards per route run averages of 0.29 and 0.67 respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Lazard has some bounce back potential now that his quarterback is healthy, but even at his best he’d only be a middling #3 receiver and it’s possible the rookie Corley outplays him in training camp and takes his job. Brownlee and Gipson remain as well, but it’s highly unlikely they’re anything more than depth receivers in this improved receiving corps.

Garrett Wilson is still the obvious #1 receiver in this group, posting slash lines of 95/1042/3 and 83/1103/4 with a combined 1.69 yards per route run average in two seasons in the league, despite the quarterback play he’s had. Still only in his age 24 season, Wilson has a massive upside in year three if Rodgers can stay healthy and be even an average starting quarterback. He’ll probably see a smaller target share in a better receiving corps than he has over the past two seasons (147 targets in 2022, 168 targets in 2023), but he could easily make up for that with much improved efficiency. 

The Jets didn’t make any additions at the tight end position this off-season, so Tyler Conklin will remain the starter. He hasn’t been a bad starter, with slash lines of 61/593/3, 58/552/3, and 61/621/0 over the past three seasons respectively, with an average of 1.22 yards per route run over that stretch, but he’s more of a checkdown option than anything and will probably have a smaller target share in 2024 with better wide receivers around him, after finishing third on the team with 87 last season.

Conklin will continue to be backed up by Jeremy Ruckert, a 2022 3rd round pick who has shown very little through two seasons in the league, averaging 1.05 yards per route run and posting PFF grades of 56.1 and 57.5 over those two seasons. The Jets parted ways with veteran CJ Uzomah (240 snaps in 2023), so Ruckert will probably have a bigger role in 2024 than 2023 (313 snaps), but I don’t have high expectations from him aside from him being a decent backup option. This should be an improved receiving corps over last year, particularly with the addition of Mike Williams in free agency.

Grade; B

Running Backs

Along with Garrett Wilson, the other big playmaker on this Jets’ offense last season was running back Breece Hall. A 2022 2nd round pick, Hall’s impressive rookie season was ended by a torn ACL, after he rushed for 463 yards and 4 touchdowns on 80 carries (5.79 YPC) with a 19/218/1 slash line and 2.00 yards per route run in 7 games. In his first season back from the injury in 2023, Hall was eased back into action, splitting time with veteran Dalvin Cook early in the year, but he drastically outperformed Cook and took control of this backfield as the season went on, with Cook eventually being cut after he was unhappy with his role. 

While Cook finished the season with just 214 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (3.19 YPC) and a 15/78/0 slash line with 0.88 yards per route run in 15 games, Hall finished the season with 994 yards and 5 touchdowns on 223 carries (4.46 YPC) and a 76/591/4 slash line with 1.76 yards per route run. The Jets didn’t add a veteran backup to replace Breece Hall, only using 4th and 5th round picks on Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis instead, leaving the two rookies and 2023 5th round pick Israel Abanikanda (29 touches as a rookie) behind Hall on the depth chart, so Hall should be in for a big role in year three and he has a massive upside, another year removed from his injury, with much more talent around him than he had a year ago, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Jets’ defense has been dominant the past two seasons. It’s tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense because defense tends to have more changes year-to-year, but the Jets have kept most of the same personnel for the past few seasons, with eight of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season remaining on the roster and six of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from 2022 remaining on the roster. 

The position group that has seen the most changes has been the edge defender group, but that’s not really a bad thing. In 2022, their top edge defenders in terms of snaps played were veterans Carl Lawson (663 snaps) and John Franklin-Myers (643 snaps), 2022 1st round pick Jermaine Johnson (312 snaps), and 2022 4th round pick Michael Clemons (311 snaps) and they all played well, with PFF grades of 66.8, 82.6, 71.7, and 78.7 respectively. The Jets then added another first round pick, Will McDonald, to the mix the following off-season.

In 2023, Lawson, the worst of the bunch in 2022, was largely phased out, playing just 101 snaps in 6 games, while Jermaine Johnson and another young edge defender Bryce Huff played bigger roles, seeing 748 snaps and 481 snaps respectively. Both played well, with PFF grades of 83.0 and 79.7 respectively, while John Franklin-Myers and Michael Clemons also had solid seasons in similar roles to 2022, with PFF grades of 70.4 and 65.9 respectively on snap counts of 626 and 368 respectively. Will McDonald played sparingly in a deep role, but showed potential with a 71.6 PFF grade on 183 snaps.

This off-season, Huff signed with the Eagles on a 3-year, 51.1 million dollar deal and John Franklin-Myers was traded to the Broncos for a late round pick, saving the Jets his 13.9 million dollar salary. To replace them, the Jets traded a mid-round pick to the Eagles for Haason Reddick, who will make 15 million in the final year of his contract this season, and they figure to give more playing time in year two to Will McDonald. 

Reddick, McDonald, and Jermaine Johnson all figure to have significant roles, while Michael Clemons could see an expanded role as well, in what is still a very talented position group. McDonald is still unproven, but he has a high upside, while Clemons is at least a solid rotational player, particularly against the run, and Johnson is coming off of a breakout 2023 campaign and should continue playing at a high level for years to come, only going into his age 25 season.

Reddick is going into his age 30 season and could start declining in 2024, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off a little this season, he’s starting from a pretty high base point, so he should continue playing at a pretty high level. A first round pick by the Cardinals in 2017, Reddick’s career got off to a slow start, but over the past four seasons he has 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 66 games, while receiving overall grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 respectively from PFF. Even with all of the changes in recent years, this should still be a talented position group in 2024.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Jets also have a high level player at the interior defender position, with Quinnen Williams being one of the best players in the league at that position. The 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams showed a lot of promise early in his career, but didn’t put it all together until the past two seasons, when he has excelled with PFF grades of 90.1 and 90.6, playing the run well and dominating as a pass rusher, with a combined 17.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Williams should continue playing at a high level in 2024.

The rest of this group is not nearly as good, however. Solomon Thomas (483 snaps) and Quinton Jefferson (468 snaps) were second and third on this team in snaps played and struggled with PFF grades of 37.0 and 52.8 respectively. Jefferson left as a free agent this off-season and was replaced with Javon Kinlaw, which is not necessarily an upgrade. A first round pick by the 49ers in 2020, Kinlaw has been a massive bust to this point in his career. Injuries have been part of the problem, as he’s missed 26 games in four seasons in the league, but he hasn’t played well when on the field either, finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, while averaging 32.5 snaps played per game. He’s a decent pass rusher, with a career 7.1% pressure rate, but is horrible against the run. Now in his age 27 season, there probably isn’t much untapped upside here, so he figures to continue struggling in his new home.

Solomon Thomas is also a former first round pick bust of the 49ers, going third overall in the 2017 NFL Draft and finishing below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including five straight, and four straight seasons below 50. Like Kinlaw, he’s also better as a pass rusher than a run defender, but his career 7.0% pressure rate is pretty mediocre. In his age 29 season in 2024, I would expect him to continue struggling. The Jets also signed ex-Cardinal Leki Fotu in free agency this off-season, but he too has struggled throughout his career, finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, on an average of 363 snaps per season. He too should continue struggling in 2024. The Jets have one of the best interior defenders in the league in Quinnen Williams, but this is a very top heavy group, as the rest of the bunch figure to struggle.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Jets also got great play out of starting linebackers CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams in 2023, as they finished with PFF grades of 82.9 and 81.1 respectively. Both had career best years though and it’s very possible neither one is as good again in 2024. For Williams, his dominant 2023 campaign came out of nowhere, as the 2019 3rd round pick had never finished above 60 on PFF in his four previous seasons. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at the same level, but it’s much more likely he regresses, at least somewhat, possibly a lot.

Mosley has a better history than Williams, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including six seasons above 70, but he’s never been above 80 in any of his other seasons and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he’s highly unlikely to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row and it’s possible he could regress significantly, given his age. He and Williams will probably remain at least a solid starting duo, but it seems improbable that both would be as good as a year ago.

Behind Mosley and Williams, the Jets’ depth is pretty suspect. Jamien Sherwood (193 snaps), Sam Eguavoen (14 snaps), and Chazz Surratt (9 snaps) were the only other linebackers who played a snap for them last season and they return for 2024 as their top reserves. Sherwood was a 5th round pick in 2021, but has only played 357 snaps in three seasons in the league. He’s flashed potential in that limited action, but could easily struggle in a larger role. 

Eguavoen played 621 snaps as a rookie in 2019, but the former undrafted free agent struggled with a 50.2 PFF grade that season and has only played 314 snaps in four seasons in the league since then and now is heading into his age 31 season. Chazz Surratt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick by the Vikings in 2021, but the 9 snaps he played last season were the first defensive snaps of his career. Mosley and Williams are a solid starting duo, but both are unlikely to be as good as a year ago and their depth behind them is suspect.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One of the few defensive players the Jets lost this off-season is safety Jordan Whitehead, who had a 68.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but the Jets have a ready made replacement in Chuck Clark. Clark was originally brought in last off-season to start next to Whitehead, but he tore his ACL before the season started and didn’t play a snap. He’s only in his age 29 season though and now more than a full year removed from his injury, he has a good chance to bounce back to his pre-injury form, when he had PFF grades of 72.9, 68.8, 66.2, and 66.0 in 61 starts in the previous four seasons. In Clark’s absence, Tony Adams was the other starter next to Whitehead and he played well enough to keep a starting job for another year, posting a 68.0 PFF grade in 15 starts. 

A 2022 undrafted free agent, Adams flashed potential with a 69.5 PFF grade on 118 snaps as a rookie and then was able to carry that into a larger role in 2023. He’s still pretty inexperienced and I don’t think we can completely forget that he went undrafted just yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he remained at least a decent starter for another season. Ashtyn Davis returns as the third safety and top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he was mediocre as a starter early in his career and has played just 221 snaps over the past two seasons since. Already in his age 28 season, Davis probably doesn’t have any untapped upside, but he is at least a decent backup behind Chuck Clark and Tony Adams.

At cornerback is probably where the Jets are their strongest on defense, with a trio of highly talented cornerbacks. Sauce Gardner, the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is already one of the top cornerbacks in the league, receiving PFF grades of 87.9 and 88.6 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Gardner should remain one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Fellow starting outside cornerback DJ Reed joined the Jets as a free agent in the same off-season Gardner was drafted and he has been a big part of their defensive success over the past two seasons, finishing with PFF grades of 72.5 and 77.9 respectively, after posting a 78.6 PFF grade in his final season in Seattle in 2021. Reed actually has five straight seasons above 70 on PFF, although the first two were in smaller roles, as the 2018 5th round pick took time to develop into a full-time starter. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Reed in 2024.

At the same time as Gardner and Reed were added, slot cornerback Michael Carter broke out between them. Only a 5th round pick in 2021, Carter struggled with a 53.7 PFF grade on 777 snaps as a rookie, but improved drastically in year two and has since had PFF grades of 73.5 and 80.4 on snap counts of 732 and 671 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, Carter should continue being one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league in 2024 and beyond.

In addition to having a very talented top trio of cornerbacks, the Jets also added better depth this off-season. Last season, their top reserve was Brandin Echols and, while he only had to play 143 snaps in 2023, it’s possible one of their top-3 cornerbacks misses significant time with injury in 2024, in which case the Jets would have had to turn to a 2021 6th round pick who struggled mightily with a 45.0 PFF grade on 762 snaps as a rookie, in the only significant action of his career. He hasn’t been bad in a smaller role in two seasons since, but he would have been a very shaky injury replacement option, so the Jets added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency and he’ll be their 4th cornerback this season. 

A second round pick in 2018, Oliver never really panned out as a starter, with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.8 on snap counts of 927 and 831 respectively in 2019 and 2020, but he’s been better on smaller snap counts since, with PFF grades of 72.6, 77.9, and 67.6 respectively over the past three seasons on snap counts of 161, 349, and 503. If forced into significant action in 2024, he could continue struggling, but he probably wouldn’t be as bad as Echols would have been and it’s possible his second stint as a starter could go better than the first, if needed. He’s an above average option as a #4 cornerback, behind arguably the top trio of cornerbacks in the league. The Jets aren’t as good at safety, but they’re not bad there either and, overall, this is a very good secondary.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jets are going all in on 2024, which makes a lot of sense, given the age of their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and their lack of a long-term succession plan behind him. The 2024 season could be their only good chance at winning it all for a long-time. Whether or not they can ultimately reach that goal is strongly dependent on what version of Rodgers they get, now going into his age 41 season, coming off of a major injury, and three years removed from his last prime caliber season. The rest of this roster is good enough that, if Rodgers can somewhat resemble his prime self, they should be legitimate contenders to win it all, but that’s a big if.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East