Quarterback

The Raiders were a mediocre team in 2023, finishing 8-9 with a -0.29 yards per play differential and a -1.46% first down rate differential. They did go 5-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who is now officially the head coach, but they weren’t that much better with Pierce, as their yards per play differential only improves to -0.20 when you weight their late season games higher and their first down rate differential only improves to -1.01%.

The biggest thing the Raiders needed to do this off-season to get out of mediocrity was to find a franchise quarterback. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo began last season as the starter and was somewhat effective at moving the ball downfield, with a 65.1% completion percentage and a 7.13 YPA average, but he was also careless with the ball and had 7 interceptions to just 9 touchdowns in six starts. Garoppolo was replaced by 4th round rookie Aiden O’Connell, who took better care of the ball, with a 12/7 TD/INT ratio in 10 starts, but he had 62.1% completion percentage for an average of just 6.47 YPA and, ultimately, he still profiles as a long-term backup. Between the two quarterbacks, the Raiders had a team QB rating of just 80.1, 28th in the NFL.

Without many good veteran options available to them this off-season, the Raiders best path to a franchise quarterback was the draft, but unfortunately for them they had the 13th pick in a draft that saw six quarterbacks go in the top-12, leaving the Raiders without a good option. They did sign veteran Gardner Minshew to a 2-year, 25 million dollar deal and he should be better than what the Raiders had at the quarterback position a year ago, but he’s still a low end starting option, with 62.6% completion, 6.74 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions in 37 career starts, while finishing with grades of 70.5, 67.8, 61.7, 56.1, and 62.0 from PFF in five seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2019.

O’Connell remains as the backup and would likely continue being mediocre if forced into significant action again in 2024, a scenario that would only happen if Minshew missed extended time or happened to struggle mightily. O’Connell could be a little better in year two, but he doesn’t have great physical tools or a high upside, so it’s unlikely he ever develops into more than a solid backup. Overall, the Raiders have one of the most underwhelming quarterback rooms in the league, even if they should be marginally better than a year ago.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

With no quarterback available that was worth taking with the 13th pick, the Raiders instead used that selection on tight end Brock Bowers. It was a bit of a surprise because the Raiders had just used a second round on Michael Mayer in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Mayer had an underwhelming rookie season, with a 27/304/2 slash line and a 1.11 yards per route run average in a part-time role, and both he and Bowers have the versatility to line up in different spots and they will probably see the field at the same time with regularity.

The Raiders two tight ends should help mask their lack of depth at wide receiver, where they have a talented duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but didn’t have another wide receiver with more than 331 receiving yards last season. Adams had a 79.1 PFF grade, a 103/1144/8 slash line, and a 1.97 yards per route run average, but his PFF grade was actually his lowest since 2016, his receiving yardage total was just lowest since 2019, and his yards per route run average was his lowest since 2017. 

One of the best receivers in the league in his prime, Adams averaged a 122/1568/14 slash line per 17 games with a 2.52 yards per route run average from 2018-2022, but he seems to be starting to decline now and is going into his age 32 season in 2024, which is more of a concern than you might think. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. 

Even if Adams continues declining, he should still be an above average receiver, but his best days are probably behind him at this point. Meyers doesn’t have the high end talent that Adams has, but he’s been a consistent #2 caliber receiver for the past few seasons, averaging 1.77 yards per route run and 801 receiving yards per season over the past four seasons. Still in his prime, going into his age 28 season, Meyers should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. 

Tre Tucker was third on the team in receiving yardage with just a 19/331/2 slash line last season, but he actually had a decent 1.48 yards per route run average, splitting time as the #3 receiver with veteran Hunter Renfrow who had just a 25/255/0 slash line and a 0.98 yards per route run average. Renfrow is gone, which could free up more playing time for Tucker, a 2023 3rd round pick who is going into his second season in the league, but the Raiders did add a pair of veterans in free agency, Michael Gallup and Jalen Guyton, and they figure to use their two tight ends together frequently, which limits Tucker’s receiving upside.

Gallup is the better of the two veteran options, but he hasn’t been the same since a torn ACL that he suffered at the end of the 2021 season. Gallup surpassed 800 yards receiving in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020 and is only in his age 28 season, so he could theoretically have bounce back potential, but he hasn’t surpassed 500 receiving yards in any of his past three seasons, while averaging just 1.13 yards per route run, so it’s unlikely he ever regains his old form. 

Guyton, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2019 and he has caught just 12 passes over the past two seasons combined, so he probably won’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Adams and Meyers still figure to be the clear #1 and #2 options, even though Adams’ age is becoming a concern, but the Raiders should have better depth than a year ago, with Tre Tucker going into his second season in the league, Brock Bowers being added in the draft and Michael Gallup likely at least being an upgrade on Hunter Renfrow.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Raiders let their long-time feature back Josh Jacobs walk in free agency this off-season, with Jacobs signing an expensive 4-year, 48 million dollar deal with the Packers, but part of the reason the Raiders let him leave is because they have a good internal replacement option in Zamir White. Jacobs was better than the 3.45 YPC average on 233 carries that he had last season would suggest, as he had a solid 45.9% carry success rate, but that was still a down year for Jacobs, and White was better than Jacobs in both metrics, averaging 4.34 YPC and a 51.0% carry success rate. White also had 3.21 yards per carry after contact, as opposed to just 2.35 for Jacobs. White did that in a much smaller sample size, with just 104 carries on the season, after just 17 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2022, but he has a lot of potential and should at least be an adequate replacement for what Jacobs did in a down year in 2023.

The Raiders added veteran Alexander Mattison to give them insurance behind White, but he’s been underwhelming in his career and he’ll probably be a clear #2 back. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Mattison has averaged just 4.06 YPC on 584 career carries, including just 3.82 YPC over the past three seasons combined, and he also has a carry success rate of just 43.7% for his career. Additionally, Mattison has averaged just 0.90 yards per route run in his career, so he’s probably not a candidate for a big passing down role. 

White had a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s still a downgrade from Jacobs in that aspect, as Jacobs averaged 1.24 yards per route run. White will see some passing down work as the lead back, but I wouldn’t expect him to be that productive in that aspect of the game. The Raiders do have passing down specialist Ameer Adbullah, who will likely see a significant situational role. Abdullah is going into his age 31 season and isn’t a real candidate for significant carries, with just 102 carries over the past six seasons combined and a career 3.93 YPC average, but he does have 82 catches over the past three seasons combined and a career 1.24 yards per route run average and, with neither White nor Mattison being great receiver, expect Abdullah to be utilized situationally. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line was above average in 2024, ranking 12th in pass blocking grade on PFF and 14th in run blocking grade, but they could take a little bit of a step back in 2024. The Raiders lost a pair of offensive line starters this off-season, both of whom had above average seasons in 2023, left guard Greg Van Roten, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right tackle Jermaine Eleumanor, who had a 68.7 PFF grade in 14 starts. To replace them, the Raiders will start second round rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson at left guard and will promote 2022 7th round pick Thayer Munford to the right tackle job, after he impressed as the swing tackle over the past two seasons, posting PFF grades of 63.2 and 64.1 respectively across 14 total starts.

Powers-Johnson has a lot of upside, but will almost definitely be a downgrade from Van Roten as a rookie, while Munford could be an adequate replacement for Eleumanor, but he’s a projection to a larger role and promoting him to the starting lineup thins out the Raiders’ offensive line depth considerably. To try to replenish offensive line depth, the Raiders used a 3rd round pick on DJ Glaze and signed veterans Cody Whitehair and Andrus Peat in free agency, but it’s unlikely that any will be as good of reserves as Munford has been over the past two seasons.

Whitehair and Peat have plenty of experience, starting 118 games over 8 seasons in the league and 102 games over 9 seasons in the league respectively, Whitehair at guard and center and Peat at tackle and guard. Whitehair finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first 7 seasons in the league, but he fell to a 45.0 PFF grade in 2023 and now is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, while Peat has finished below 60 on PFF in four the past six seasons and now heads into his age 31 season. They’re not bad reserve options and neither is the rookie Glaze, but none of them are as good of reserves as Thuyer was before being promoted.

The rest of this offensive line stays the same from a year ago, with Kolton Miller at left tackle, Andre James at center, and Dylan Parham at right guard. All three are at least capable starters, but Parham is the least impressive of the bunch, with PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in two seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2022, while making all 34 starts. He’s still young and could have untapped upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see 2024 be the best season of his career yet, but James and Miller still look like better players.

James is coming off of a strong 2023 season, with a 74.6 PFF grade, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, so he could regress somewhat in 2024. Undrafted in 2019, James became a starter in 2021 and received PFF grades of 64.1 and 62.8 in his first two seasons as a starter, so even if he does regress, he should at least be a capable starter. He’s also only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter in 2024, but it’s more likely that he’s unable to repeat the best season of his career.

Kolton Miller is clearly the best of the bunch. A first round pick in 2018, Miller took a couple years to develop, but he’s finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons and above 80 in three straight seasons. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He significantly elevates an offensive line that could otherwise be underwhelming, with Jackson Powers-Johnson being a rookie, Andre James a candidate to regress, Dylan Parham only being a capable, but unspectacular starter thus far in his career, and Thayer Munford never being a full-season starter before.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders’ defense was their better side of the ball last season, ranking 8th in DVOA, but they also had next to no injuries on this side of the ball, which is unlikely to happen again. If injuries knock out any of their key players for an extended period of time in 2024, it could be tough for them to repeat last season’s performance. The most important player to stay healthy is edge defender Maxx Crosby, who is one of the best defensive players in the league and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Fortunately, Crosby is also one of the most durable players in the league, never missing a game in five seasons in the league, despite playing 57.2 snaps per game, including 59.6 snaps per game over the past four seasons, and 63.6 snaps per game over the past two seasons. In 2022, Crosby ranked 1st in the NFL among edge defenders with 1,082 snaps played and in 2023 he again ranked 1st among edge defenders with 1,080. He also remains effective despite his snap counts, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.1, and 92.1 over the past three seasons respectively, dominating against the run and as a pass rusher. In total, he has 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 49 games over those three seasons. Still only in his age 27 season, I wouldn’t expect anything to change in 2024, barring an unexpected injury. 

The Raiders also got a great season out of Malcolm Koonce on the other side of Crosby, as he had a 81.3 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate, despite only being a part-time player (501 total snaps played). Koonce was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and always had potential, but injuries and underwhelming performance limited him to just 116 snaps in his first two seasons before his surprising breakout season in 2023. Koonce is a one-year wonder and could easily regress or miss more time with injury in 2024, but he’s also only in his age 26 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing at an above average level, even if he isn’t as good as a year ago.

The Raiders could give Koonce an expanded role in 2024, but that might make it more likely that he regresses and his role will largely be dependent on what the Raiders do with Tyree Wilson, who they selected 7th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Wilson had a tough rookie year, missing valuable time in the off-season with injury, falling behind Koonce on the depth chart, and then performing poorly with a 47.1 PFF grade on 493 snaps, struggling against the run and adding just 3.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. 

Wilson has the upside to be a lot better in year two though and he also has the size (6-6 275) to play inside, so, with Koonce breaking out opposite Crosby, the Raiders could line Wilson up inside more often in pass rushing situations in 2024 if they feel that would get their best players on the field. Wilson will still see some action on the edge though, as the Raiders don’t have much depth behind him, Koonce, and Crosby. 

Janarius Robinson and Elerson Smith are the only other edge defenders on the roster who aren’t former undrafted free agents with no NFL experience and Robinson has played just 78 snaps in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, while Elerson Smith was also a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played just 121 career snaps, none of which came last season. Maxx Crosby elevates this group significantly by himself, while Malcolm Koonce and Tyree Wilson are young players with upside, Koonce coming off of a breakout season in 2023 and Wilson going 7th overall in last year’s draft, but the Raiders’ lack of depth behind those three hurts their overall grade at this position a little bit.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

One reason the Raiders could have as good of a defensive season as they had last year, even with injuries likely to strike more than they did a year ago, is the addition of interior defender Christian Wilkins, who they added on a 4-year, 110 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s a steep price to pay, with Wilkins now being the second highest paid interior defender in the league, but he could be worth it. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2019, Wilkins finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in Miami, including three straight seasons over 70, culminating with a 2023 season in which he had a career best year as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. 

Wilkins had never been that good as a pass rusher before, but he does have 20.5 sacks, 33 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 81 career games, while also playing the run at an above average level. He’s also a durable every down player, missing just two games due to injury in his career, while averaging 48.7 snaps per game and 790 snaps per season. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, Wilkins should play at a similar level in 2024. Even if he doesn’t match his career best pass rush season from 2023, he should still be an above average every down interior defender.

Wilkins should be an upgrade on Jerry Tillery (67.7 PFF grade on 504 snaps) and Bilal Nichols (51.6 PFF grade on 616 snaps), who weren’t retained this off-season. The Raiders did bring back Adam Butler and John Jenkins from last season and they’ll probably get more interior snaps from Tyree Wilson, as well as more snaps out of Byron Young, a 2023 3rd round pick who struggled on 99 snaps as a rookie, but who has the upside to be a lot better in year two in 2024.

Butler and Jenkins were decent last season, with PFF grades of 526 and 595 on snap counts of 60.1 and 61.2. Butler has been mediocre most of his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other six seasons in the league, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he’s unlikely to get any better and will probably be mediocre at best. Jenkins, meanwhile, is a career role player who has never played more than the 595 snaps he played last season, playing an average of 315 snaps per season, and now he’s heading into his age 35 season. I would expect both to be underwhelming in 2024. The addition of Christian Wilkins elevates this group, but the rest of this group is pretty mediocre.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Raiders linebacking corps remains the same from a year ago, but there is some potential for regression from top linebacker Robert Spillane, who broke out with a 77.0 PFF grade on 1,100 snaps in 2023. Prior to last season, Spillane, a 2018 undrafted free agent, had never played more than 588 snaps in a season as a part-time linebacker specializing in stopping the run. In 2023, Spillane’s run defense was still by far his best attribute and he actually struggled in coverage a little bit with a 58.9 coverage grade, but his run defense more than made up for it and he played an every down role. Spillane should be an every down player again in 2024, but it’s fair to question whether he can repeat the by far best season of his career again, after previously never exceeding a 66.3 overall grade on PFF in any of his other five seasons in the league.

Divine Deablo also remains in a significant role, after playing 771 snaps a year ago, but he wasn’t nearly as good, finishing with a 60.6 PFF grade. A 2021 3rd round pick, Deablo has been decent, but unspectacular throughout his career, with a 63.2 PFF grade on 297 snaps as a rookie and a 58.4 PFF grade on 463 snaps in his 2nd season in the league in 2022. Now going into his 4th season in the league and his age 26 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped potential and has his best season yet in 2024, but it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a solid starter even if he does take a step forward.

Luke Masterson also returns as the top reserve, after flashing a lot of potential with a 86.9 PFF grade on 182 snaps last season, although that comes after the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled mightily with a 30.8 PFF grade on 344 snaps as a rookie. Going into his 3rd season in the league in 2024, Masterson’s NFL experience is still a small sample size and it remains to be seen what kind of player he would be if forced into significant action for an extended period of time, but most likely he won’t continue the level of play he had in very limited action last season. The Raiders also used a 5th round pick on Tommy Eichenberg to give themselves additional depth, but he most likely will be behind Masterson in the pecking order. This isn’t a bad linebacking corps, but, in the likely scenario that Robert Spillane regresses, it will be an underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Raiders’ cornerback room has undergone significant changes in the past year. Going into last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, and Amik Robertson. Peters was cut mid-season, despite receiving a 68.8 PFF grade across 732 snaps, because the Raiders were out of contention and didn’t want him to hit salary escalators in his contract. Peters was replaced by Jack Jones, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots, with whom he had a falling out with the coaching staff. Robertson then left as a free agent this off-season and was not really replaced, after a 2023 season in which he was decent with a 63.4 PFF grade on 674 snaps.

Nate Hobbs is the one constant, but one constant with him is injuries, as the 2021 5th round pick has missed 11 games in three seasons in the league, while never playing all 17 games in a season. He’s been missed when he’s been on the field, as he’s mostly been an above average starter throughout his career, with PFF grades of 79.1, 60.9, and 69.0. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to have a great season in 2024 if he can finally stay healthy, but more likely he’ll miss at least some time with injury at some point.

Jack Jones also has a lot of upside, as the 2022 4th round pick has received PFF grades of 74.7 and 71.6 in his two seasons in the league, but he’s also only played 905 snaps across the two seasons, due to injuries, off-the-field problems, and problems with his coaches. He could develop into an above average starter long-term if he can stay on the field and stay out of trouble, but he’s also a projection to a season-long role and comes with a lot of concerns.

With Robertson gone, the third cornerback job will likely either go to 2023 4th round pick Jakorian Bennett or veteran Brandon Facyson to start the season. Facyson is much more experienced, with 17 starts in 75 games in six seasons in the league, but he’s going into his age 30 season now and he’s mostly struggled throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of the past four seasons, and, as a result of that, he actually played behind the rookie Bennett a year ago, seeing just 44 snaps to Bennett’s 361.

Bennett struggled mightily in his limited action though, receiving a 42.4 PFF grade, and, while he has the upside to be better in year two, he hasn’t shown anything that would suggest he’s deserving of a bigger role and he will likely struggle in that role, assuming he continues being ahead of the veteran Facyson on the depth chart. The Raiders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on cornerback Decamerion Richardson and he could see a significant role at some point as a rookie, but he is pretty raw and would almost definitely struggle in that role.

While there have been a lot of changes at cornerback, things remain pretty much the same at the safety spot, with Tre’von Moehrig and Marcus Epps remaining the starters. Moehrig was a 2nd round pick in 2021, has made 47 starts in three seasons in the league, and has shown a lot of potential, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, and 70.2 across the three seasons respectively. Only going into his age 25 season, Moehrig still has a lot of upside long-term if he can improve his consistency and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that happened and he had another above average season in 2024, but he could also regress, which would hurt this secondary.

Epps, meanwhile, is a 5-year veteran who has been a full-time starter over the past two seasons, but he’s been pretty mediocre, with PFF grades of 56.6 and 65.4 respectively. The 2019 6th round pick showed a lot of promise in smaller roles earlier in his career, but he hasn’t been able to carry that over to bigger roles and it would surprise me if he was more than a decent starter in 2024. The Raiders also lack depth behind Moehrig and Epps, as their top two reserves a year ago were Isaiah Pola-Mao, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played 211 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who played just 22 snaps as a rookie. Both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This secondary is a young group with potential, with Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones, and Tre’von Moehrig all potentially being above average starters, but they come with a lot of downside as well and the rest of the group is very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Raiders were a mediocre team a year ago. This year, they should have a slight upgrade at the quarterback position, but they still have one of the worst quarterback rooms in the league and their roster around the quarterback isn’t good enough to compensate. They’re also unlikely to have as few injuries as they did a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Overall, it should be tough for this team to qualify for the post-season in the loaded AFC, where they are one of the worst overall teams.

Prediction: 4-13, 3rd in AFC West