Quarterback

In the first five seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback from 2018-2022, the Chiefs finished in the top-3 in offensive DVOA in all five seasons. In 2023, the Chiefs fell to 8th in DVOA and Mahomes had the lowest QB rating of his career at 92.6, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, after completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in his first five seasons in the league (106.0 QB rating). 

Despite that, the Chiefs still won the Super Bowl, their 2nd in a row and their 3rd in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. While their offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the past, their defense was the best it had been in Mahomes’ tenure, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, giving the Chiefs a well balanced team that was one of the best in the league in the regular season and that was capable of going all the way once the post-season began.

Mahomes wasn’t as good statistically as he had been in the past, but that wasn’t really his fault, nor was the Chiefs’ relative lack of offensive success. Mahomes has a 85.1 PFF grade, his 4th highest grade of his six seasons as a starter and his 6th straight season above 80, dating back to his first season as a starter in 2018. The problem was that Mahomes’ offensive supporting cast was the worst he’s had in his tenure as a starter, which I’ll get into later. With Mahomes still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Mahomes has only missed two games due to injury in his career, but if he were to miss time, the Chiefs would turn to Carson Wentz, who they added this off-season. Wentz would obviously be a big downgrade from Mahomes, as any backup quarterback would be, but he’s probably above average as far as backups go. He has plenty of experience, with 93 starts in 8 seasons in the league, and he has a decent 89.4 QB rating across those starts, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. With Mahomes leading the way, this is one of, if not the best quarterback room in the NFL.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest problem around Mahomes last season was his receiving corps. Of the Chiefs’ top-5 wide receivers in terms of snaps played, four of them finished in the bottom half of wide receivers on PFF. The one exception was rookie Rashee Rice, a 2023 2nd round pick. Rice’s overall receiving numbers (79/938/7) don’t look that great, but he was a part-time player earlier in the season. From week 6 on, he had a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over a 17-game stretch. He also averaged 2.39 yards per route run, 10th among eligible wide receivers, and he received a 85.0 PFF grade, 13th among eligible wide receivers. 

Going into his second season in the league, Rice should have a lot of promise, but he’s facing an extended suspension for off-the-field issues from this off-season, which would be a big blow to this offense. Fortunately, the Chiefs did make improving their receiving corps a priority this off-season, signing Marquise Brown to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal in free agency and using their first round pick on Xavier Worthy. When Rice is on the field, Brown and Worthy will play in three wide receiver sets with him and, if he’s not available, they should help somewhat make up for Rice’s absence. It’s also possible that Rice’ suspension doesn’t start until the 2025 season, as the league lets the legal process play out.

Marquise Brown was a first round pick in 2019 by the Ravens and then was traded to the Cardinals for a first round pick following the 2021 season. Brown was better with the Ravens, averaging 1.69 yards per route run over his three seasons with the team, surpassing 1000 yards in 2021, before falling to 1.35 yards per route run with the Cardinals over the past two seasons, but he had much worse quarterback play in Arizona and is a good bet to bounce back now that he’s in Kansas City with Mahomes. He’s also only in his age 27 season, so he should be in the prime of his career. Worthy, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term #1 receiver and, even if he has growing pains as a rookie, he should be a useful contributor for them in a complementary role.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling wasn’t brought back this off-season, but he won’t be missed after a 2023 season in which he had just a 21/315/1 slash line, a 0.71 yards per route run average, and ranked 100th among 102 eligible wide receivers in PFF grade. The Chiefs did bring back the rest of their wide receivers from a year ago and, while none of them were good in significant roles last season, the Chiefs won’t need them for more than depth this season, though one would have to play significant snaps for a period of time if Rice misses time due to his suspension. 

Skyy Moore has the most upside of their reserve options, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but he’s averaged just 1.08 yards per route run with slash lines of 22/250/0 and 21/244/1 in two seasons in the league. He’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but he’s still best as a reserve option. Kadarius Toney also has upside, as a 2021 1st round pick with a career 1.76 yards per route run average, but he’s been limited to snap counts of 302, 144, and 229 in three seasons in the league due to injuries and inconsistent performance and he was traded from the Giants to the Chiefs midway through his second season in the league for a 3rd round pick after they gave up on his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, the potential is there, but he’s also best as a reserve option.

Justin Watson is a veteran who was second among Chiefs wide receivers in receiving yardage last season, but he only had a 27/460/3 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average, both of which were actually career bests for the 6-year veteran. Now in his age 29 season, it’s highly unlikely the 2018 5th round pick has any untapped upside. The Chiefs also have Mecole Hardman, who returned to the team midway through the season after a very disappointing half season with the Jets. He has a decent 1.62 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league since being selected by the Chiefs in the 2nd round in 2019, but he only has 40 catches over the past two seasons and played just 124 snaps in 6 regular season games after returning to the team during last season. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot with the rest of the Chiefs reserve options.

The Chiefs also still have tight end Travis Kelce, who somewhat made up for the Chiefs’ lack of wide receiver depth, leading the team with a 93/984/5 slash line and averaging 1.92 yards per route run, second on the team behind Rashee Rice. That was a down year by Kelce’s standards though, as he had surpassed 1000 yards receiving in each of his previous seven seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run over that stretch. Now going into his age 35 season, age seems to be catching up with Kelce somewhat, but, barring a massive dropoff, the future Hall of Famer should remain one of the best tight ends in the league again in 2024.

Kelce will likely continue being backed up by Noah Gray, a 2021 5th round pick who has seen snap counts of 599 and 595 over the past two seasons, but he’s a mediocre player who has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his career and the Chiefs added Jared Wiley in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them another long-term option. Wiley will probably spend his rookie year as the third tight end, but could work his way into more playing time as the year goes on. The Chiefs added Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to give themselves much needed depth in the receiving corps and Rashee Rice could have a big second season in the league if he is able to play the whole season, but his legal issues cloud his outlook, while tight end Travis Kelce could continue declining, given his age.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was part of the problem in 2023, particularly the tackle position. In 2022, the Chiefs had a solid tackle duo of Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie, but both left as free agents and the Chiefs replaced them with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, who both struggled with PFF grades of 55.4 and 51.6 respectively. The left tackle Smith wasn’t brought back this off-season and will either be replaced by 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris, who was underwhelming in 55.6 snaps as a rookie, or by this year’s 2nd round pick Kingsley Suamataia. It’s possible neither one is an upgrade on Smith, but both at least have more upside.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs are stuck with Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, as he’s guaranteed 20 million in the 2nd year of a massive 4-year, 80 million dollar deal the Chiefs gave him last off-season. Taylor was never worth that kind of money, receiving grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in four seasons with the Jaguars, who made him a 2nd round pick in 2019, but last year was a career worst year for him, so he could be a little bit better in 2024, if only by default. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he got benched mid-season if he doesn’t turn it around though, despite his salary, either for whoever loses the left tackle battle, or for backup right tackle Lucas Niang, a 2021 3rd round pick who showed promise with a 64.6 grade across 524 snaps (9 starts) as a rookie, but who has since played just 69 mediocre snaps in the past two seasons.

The interior of this offensive line is still good though, as the trio of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith have been together for three seasons and have all been above average during that stretch. Humphrey and Smith were both draft picks in 2021, going in the 2nd round and 6th round respectively, while Thuney was added in free agency that off-season on a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal. Humphrey is actually coming off of a down year with a 78.2 PFF grade, as compared to 91.4 and 90.0 in his first two seasons in the league. He has a good chance to bounce back in 2024 though and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better centers in the league, still only in his age 25 season. 

Smith isn’t quite as good, but he’s still had PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, and 72.2 over the past three seasons respectively and should continue playing around that level, or possibly even better, still only in his age 25 season in 2024. Thuney, meanwhile, has finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, though he’s now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline. He should remain an above average starter even if he does decline, but his best days could be behind him at this point. 

The trio of Humphrey, Smith, and Thuney have missed a combined three games over the past three seasons, none of which were last season, so depth hasn’t really been needed behind them, but the Chiefs would be in trouble if any of them missed an extended period of time, as their top interior reserve options are 5th round rookie Hunter Nourzad, 7th round rookie CJ Hanson, and 2022 undrafted free agent Mike Caliendo, who struggled mightily in the first 64 snaps of his career last season. The Chiefs should still have a strong interior of their offensive line, possibly even better than a year ago if Creed Humphrey can bounce back to his 2021-2022 form, but the tackle position is likely to remain a position of weakness, barring breakout seasons from young players, and depth is a concern.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

While the Chiefs’ wide receivers and offensive tackles were not as good in 2023 as they had been in the past, running back Isiah Pacheco took a step forward. His YPC average dropped from 4.88 in 2022, when he was a rookie, to 4.56 in 2023, but that was because his blocking wasn’t as good, as his yards after contact increased from 3.00 YPC to 3.04 YPC. He also saw a bigger workload, going from 170 carries to 205 carries, and he had much a higher broken tackle rate, with 37 broken tackles, as compared to just 20 in 2022. Overall, he went from a 74.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023.

Pacheco also saw a big increase in passing game work, going from a 13/130/0 slash line in 2022 to a 44/244/2 slash line in 2023, although his yards per route run average was still mediocre, going from 0.88 as a rookie to 0.91 last season. Passing down specialist Jerick McKinnon, who had a 25/192/4 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the only back behind Pacheco and he’ll be a pure backup, rather than a passing down specialist, so Pacheco could see even more receiving production in 2024, though he’ll probably remain inefficient in that aspect.

Edwards-Helaire was a first round pick in 2020, but has mostly been a bust, with just a 4.18 YPC average and 12 touchdowns on 441 carries in four seasons in the league, including just 3.72 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 141 carries over the past two seasons since Pacheco took his starting job, but the Chiefs did opt to bring him back as a backup this off-season on a 1-year, 1.7 million dollar deal. He won’t see a big role unless Pacheco gets hurt, but he’s their only good backup option, so he should see at least a few touches per game. Behind him, the only other Chiefs running back who isn’t an undrafted free agent with no NFL carries is Keontay Ingram, who has averaged just 2.16 YPC on 62 carries in two seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2022. Pacheco is a solid starter and Edwards-Helaire isn’t a bad backup, but this is a thin backfield.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

A big reason for the Chiefs’ defensive success last season was a dominant season they got out of interior defender Chris Jones. Not only did Jones have 10.5 sacks of his own, while adding 21 sacks and a 15.6% pressure rate, ridiculous numbers for an interior pass rusher, but he also frequently drew double teams, allowing the Chiefs’ edge defenders to get frequent one-on-ones, which led to the Chiefs finishing 2nd in the NFL with 57 sacks in 2023. Jones wasn’t nearly as good against the run, but he still had an overall 84.1 PFF grade on 739 snaps.

Jones is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline, but, even if he drops off a little bit, he should remain one of the top interior defenders in the league, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones has exceeded a 70 PFF grade in all eight seasons in the league, including seven straight seasons above 80, while averaging 725 snaps per season in those seven seasons. In total, he has 75.5 sacks, 104 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 123 career games, with 67 sacks, 92 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 91 games in the past six seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he should continue playing at a high level and it’s possible he could avoid declining for at least another year.

The rest of the Chiefs’ interior defenders aren’t nearly as good though, as the other three interior defenders who saw significant action, Derrick Nnadi (500 snaps), Tershawn Wharton (401 snaps), and Matt Dickerson (190 snaps), all finished with grades below 60 on PFF. Wharton was at least a decent pass rusher, with a 6.7% pressure rate, but Nnadi had just a 3.8% pressure rate, Dickerson had just a 1.1% pressure rate, and none of the three played well against the run. All three of them remain on the roster in 2024 and should play similar roles.

Nnadi has been better against the run in the past, but he only has a 4.6% pressure rate in six seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. At best, he’ll be a capable base package player, but he could easily continue struggling like he has in recent years. Wharton has always been a decent pass rusher, with a 7.0% pressure rate in four seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020, but he’s finished below 60 in run defense grade in all four seasons. He should remain a similar player in 2024, a decent, but unspectacular situational pass rusher who would likely struggle if forced into a bigger role. Matt Dickerson, meanwhile, is a 2018 undrafted free agent who has only played 566 mediocre snaps in six seasons in the league. Chris Jones elevates this group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

To make up for their lack of depth on the interior, the Chiefs will likely use three defensive ends together frequently in sub packages, with one lined up on the interior, most likely either Mike Danna or Charles Omenihu, who both played in that capacity last season. George Karlaftis led Chiefs edge defenders with 755 snaps played and 10.5 sacks. He also had 5 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate, although he benefited significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior and he also struggled against the run, so he finished with just a 64.0 PFF grade overall. A first round pick in 2022, Karlaftis struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 729 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to make his third season in the league in 2024 the best of his career thus far.

Danna was second among Chiefs edge defenders with 745 snaps played in 2023 and he had a solid 67.0 PFF grade. His pass rush productivity was underwhelming, but that’s because he lined up frequently on the interior, where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback from, and he still finished the season with 6.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate, which isn’t bad considering the hybrid role he played in. A 2020 5th round pick, Danna also had a 67.4 PFF grade on 471 snaps in 2022, with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, when he lined up almost exclusively on the edge. Danna also had a 61.8 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and a 61.7 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2021. He’s an unspectacular player, but he’s solid and he’s only in his age 27 season. The Chiefs kept him on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, a fair value for a useful contributor.

Charles Omenihu only played 403 snaps last season, but he was limited to just 11 games by suspension and will likely have a higher snap count in more games in 2024. He’s mostly a pass rush specialist though, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all five seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past three seasons, exceeding 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 43 games, despite seeing frequent action on the interior in sub packages.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah also will likely see a higher snap count in 2024, after the 2023 1st round pick only played 218 snaps as a rookie, with 61 of them coming in a meaningless week 18 game when the Chiefs’ seeding was already locked up. Anudike-Uzomah didn’t fare well in his limited action with a 52.1 PFF grade and a 7.4% pressure rate, but he has the upside to be a lot better in year two. Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu seeing more action will likely come at the expense of Mike Danna’s and to a lesser extent George Karlaftis’ playing time, but all four players should rotate frequently and see significant snap counts. It’s an unspectacular group overall, but they have plenty of depth. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs lost linebacker Willie Gay in free agency this off-season, after he played 625 snaps last season, but he probably won’t be missed, for a few reasons. For one, Gay struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade in 2023. On top of that, the Chiefs also have good depth at the position, and they should get a healthier season out of Nick Bolton, who was limited to 441 snaps in 8 games last season. When Bolton is healthy, he’s their best linebacker. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Bolton flashed a lot of potential with a 69.2 PFF grade on 623 snaps as a rookie, then broke out with a 75.7 PFF grade on 1,118 snaps in an every down role in 2022, and before falling back to a 69.2 PFF grade in his injury plagued 2023 season. Still only in his age 24 season, Bolton has a lot of upside and should either bounce back in 2024 or possibly have the best season yet of his career.

Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are the other two linebackers who will play significant snaps for the Chiefs in 2024. Tranquill had a 70.5 PFF grade across 579 snaps in 2023, playing in an every down capacity when Bolton was out. That was a career best year for him, but he also had a 66.5 PFF grade across 977 snaps with the Chargers in 2022 and he has finished above 60 on PFF in all four healthy seasons of his career, so he should be a capable every down linebacker at worst in 2024. 

Chenal, meanwhile, is a run stopping specialist who has PFF grades of 66.0 and 76.5 across snap counts of 262 and 446 since going in the third round in 2022, with 370 snaps on run plays, as opposed to 338 snaps on pass plays. He should play a similar role as the third linebacker in 2023 and he should continue being an effective role player. This is an above average linebacking corps overall, with Bolton as a high upside every down player, Tranquill as a solid starter, and Leo Chenal as a useful role player.

Grade: B+

Secondary

If the Chiefs’ defense isn’t as good this season as it was a year ago, it will be because they lost talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had a 71.1 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Chiefs franchise tagged Sneed, but realistically could afford to keep him given all of their other long-term financial commitments, so they ended up trading him for a 3rd round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league. 

The Chiefs will miss Sneed, but they have some promising options to replace him. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams flashed potential in limited roles at cornerback last season, with a PFF grade on 66.1 snaps and a 73.0 PFF grade on 440 snaps and 321 snaps respectively, while 2023 4th round pick Chamarri Conner flashed potential with a 72.7 PFF grade on 305 snaps at safety last season and could play more cornerback in 2023. All have upside, but they all have downside as well, as Watson is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.1 PFF grade on 604 snaps as a rookie, Williams is a 2022 4th round pick who was underwhelming with a 60.6 PFF grade on 437 snaps as a rookie, while Conner could struggle to make the position change.

Conner could also compete for a starting job at safety, where Bryan Cook and Justin Reid are penciled in as the starters, but could both be upgraded. Cook was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie and then received a 65.2 PFF grade as a starter in 2023, before his season was ended by injury after 593 snaps and 12 starts. Assuming he’s past his injury, Cook has the upside to have his best year yet in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he remains only a marginal starter.

Justin Reid, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade in 16 starts (981 snaps) in 2023. He’s been better in the past, but he’s also been inconsistent for most of his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 in twice. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could be significantly better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but that’s not a guarantee. Both Reid and Cook have upside, but it’s also possible neither is better than they were a year ago, in which case they’d be an underwhelming starting duo.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have Trent McDuffie, who was actually their best cornerback a year ago, ranking 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 16 starts. A first round pick in 2022, McDuffie also had a 73.6 grade on 683 snaps as a rookie. Still only in his age 24 season in his third season in the league in 2024, McDuffie could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t improve further this season, he should still remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He elevates a secondary that otherwise has upside, but a lot of downside and that should miss L’Jarius Sneed, possibly in a big way if their young cornerbacks can’t step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the rest of the Patrick Mahomes era, as their offensive supporting cast was the worst of Mahomes’ career, but their defense was the best of Mahomes’ career and, overall, the Chiefs were still good enough to win their third Super Bowl in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. In 2024, their defense could take a step back, but their offensive supporting cast should be better and they still look like one of the best teams in the league and on the short list of contenders to win the Super Bowl, which would be the first three-peat in NFL history. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Chiefs after I finish all of my previews.

Prediction: XX-XX, XX in AFC West