Washington Commanders 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

The Commanders were one of the worst teams in the league last season, finishing 4-13, and they got worse as the season went on, losing 13 of their final 15 games, 10 of their final 11 games, and each of their final 8 games, with half of those eight losses coming by 17 points or more. That’s because they traded away two of their best players, edge defenders Montez Sweat and Chase Young, at the trade deadline, with both in the final season of their contracts and the Commanders’ season going nowhere.

On the season, the Commanders had a -2.47% first down rate differential and a -0.90 yards per play differential, while ranking 26th and 31st in first down rate allowed and yards per play allowed respectively, and, if you weight their second half of the season games higher, the Commanders were at -5.20% and -1.03 in first down rate differential and yards per play differential respectively. Without Young and Sweat, the Commanders were arguably the worst team in the league and that was the roster they came into the off-season with.

The Commanders had the assets to get a lot better this off-season, with the 2nd overall pick, extra draft picks in the second and third round from the Sweat and Young trades, and among the most cap space in the league, but they didn’t use a lot of that cap space, currently still with the third most cap space in the league and the fourth most projected cap space in the league next off-season, and, while they did add a lot of talent through the draft, that talent might not make a big enough impact for this team to get back into playoff contention for at least a couple seasons. In terms of average annual value of their payroll, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, the Commanders rank 4th worst in the league and, on top of that, many of the Commanders’ free agent additions were overpays who don’t move the needle.

If the Commanders are going to be ahead of schedule in their rebuild this season, it will likely be because they get a big season out of new quarterback Jayden Daniels, who they selected 2nd overall pick. Daniels isn’t quite as good of a prospect as 1st overall pick Caleb Williams, who is one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory, but Daniels would have gone #1 in many drafts. A dual threat, Daniels excelled as both a passer and a runner at the collegiate level. His slender frame and playing style make him an injury concern and he’s already going into his age 24 season and might not have as big of an upside as a younger player like Drake Maye, who went one pick behind him, but Daniels is very NFL ready and could make a big impact for a rookie.

At the very least, it wouldn’t be hard for Daniels to be an upgrade over what the Commanders had at the quarterback position this off-season, when the combination of Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett combined to complete 64.0% of their passes for an average of 6.56 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, while not providing the dual threat ability as a runner than Daniels brings and taking a combined 65 sacks, despite playing behind an offensive line that actually ranked 15th in pass blocking grade on PFF. Howell was traded this off-season in a deal that eventually allowed the Commanders to move up for yet another second round pick, while Brissett was allowed to leave as a free agent, making this a totally retooled quarterback room.

It would be a big upside if Daniels didn’t start week one this off-season, with his only competition being Marcus Mariota, who the Commanders signed this off-season to be a veteran mentor to their rookie quarterback. Mariota was the 2nd overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has completed 62.7% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 93 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions in 74 career starts, but only 19 of those starts have come in the past five seasons and he’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he’s purely a backup at this stage of his career. This is an upgraded quarterback room, but Daniels is still a rookie and he could struggle with growing pains in year one.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Commanders added two starters on the offensive line this off-season, signing center Tyler Biadasz to a 3-year, 29.25 million dollar deal and guard Nick Allegretti to a 3-year, 16 million dollar deal, both of which are likely to be overpays. Allegretti has made just 13 starts in five seasons in the league since being a mere 7th round pick in 2019. He did have a decent 66.2 PFF grade in a career high nine starts in 2020, but he’s four years removed from that and is a projection to a season-long starting role, which is what the Commanders are paying him for.

Allegretti could be an upgrade over Saahdiq Charles, who had a 55.5 PFF grade in 10 starts last season, and Chris Paul, a 2022 7th round pick who had a 38.8 PFF grade in 7 starts last season in the first significant action of his career, but Allegretti will likely only by an upgrade only by default. With Charles leaving as a free agent this off-season, the Commanders top backup guard options are Paul and 2023 3rd round pick Ricky Stromberg, who has upside, but only saw 26 snaps as a rookie, despite having the opportunity to earn a bigger role in a weak position group.

Unlike Allegretti, Biadasz at least has experience, as the 2020 4th round pick has started 49 of a possible 51 games over the past three seasons, while receiving decent, but unspectacular grades of 64.8, 61.7, and 68.6 from PFF. Still in his age 27 season, Biadasz should remain at least a capable starter for at least the next couple seasons, but it’s hard to justify making him the 6th highest paid center in the league in terms of average annual value.

Biadasz could be an upgrade over the combination Nick Gates (66.1 PFF grade in 10 starts) and Tyler Larsen (50.3 PFF grade in 7 starts), who started at center last season and are no longer on the roster, but he won’t be a significant upgrade. With Gates and Larsen gone, the Commanders would likely turn to another veteran free agent addition, Michael Deiter, who has been mediocre across 33 starts in five seasons in the league, in case of an injury to Biadasz.

Despite ample cap space, the Commanders didn’t keep left tackle Charles Leno this off-season, releasing him ahead of a 9 million dollar non-guaranteed salary this off-season. Leno was going into his age 33 season, but he was above average last season with a 72.5 PFF grade in 13 starts and the Commanders didn’t really replace him, leaving the left tackle job either to veteran swing tackle Cornelius Lucas or to third round rookie Brandon Coleman.

Lucas is above average as far as swing tackles go, with seven straight seasons above 60 on PFF, including three seasons above 70, but he’s made just 41 starts over those seven seasons, while maxing out at 12 starts in a season, and now he’s heading into his age 33 season, so he’s an underwhelming option as a season-long starter, something he’s never been in ten seasons in the league. The rookie Coleman, meanwhile, is raw and could struggle in year one. The Commanders also have 2023 4th round pick Braeden Daniels, who theoretically has upside, but didn’t play a snap as a rookie due to injury and seems unlikely to play a significant role unless there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and, in that case, he could easily struggle.

On the right side, guard Sam Cosmi and tackle Andrew Wylie remain as starters. Cosmi was probably the Commanders’ best offensive lineman last season, making all 17 starts and receiving an impressive 80.6 PFF grade. A second round pick in 2021, Cosmi flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league, with a 74.9 PFF grade in 9 starts as a rookie and a 71.6 PFF grade in 6 starts in his second season in the league and he was able to carry that and then some into a season-long starting role in 2023. Still only in his age 25 season, he should remain at least an above average starter with the upside to potentially get even better. He’s one of the best young guards in the league.

Wylie, meanwhile, is not as good, but is at least a capable, if unspectacular starter. He has made 74 starts over the past six seasons, playing both guard and tackle and finishing above 60 on PFF in five of those six seasons, including a career best 69.2 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, all at right tackle. He’s now going into his age 30 season, and because of his age, he probably won’t repeat his career best year from a year ago, but he has a good chance to at least remain a capable starter. This isn’t a bad offensive line, but they will likely miss departed left tackle Charles Leno, while their two free agent additions, Nick Allegretti and Tyler Biadasz, are underwhelming overpays.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Commanders also signed running back Austin Ekeler to a 2-year, 8.43 million dollar deal this off-season. In his prime, Ekeler was one of the best all-around running backs in the league, totaling 811 carries for 3,727 yards and 34 touchdowns (4.60 YPC) and 389 catches for 3,448 yards and 29 touchdowns (1.96 yards per route run) in 89 games from 2017-2022. However, in 2023, Ekeler dropped off significantly, rushing for 628 yards and 5 touchdowns on 179 carries, a career low 3.51 YPC, and managing just a 51/436/1 slash line and a career low 1.25 yards per route run average.

Ekeler suffered an injury early in the season and might not have been at 100% for most of the year, but he’s also going into his age 29 season with 1,330 career touches, which is a common point for running backs to drop off significantly, so, even if he does bounce back somewhat in 2024 with better health, his best days are likely to be behind him at this point, which is why he had to settle for a limited deal in free agency. He probably also will see fewer touches in Washington than he’s used to, as the Commanders have a talented lead back in Brian Robinson and might just need Ekeler to replace free agent departure Antonio Gibson as a change of pace and passing down back.

Gibson only had 265 yards and 1 touchdown on 65 carries (4.08 YPC) with a 48/389/2 slash line and 1.22 yards per route run last season. Ekeler could be an upgrade and will probably see at least somewhat of a bigger role than Gibson had, but Robinson is likely to remain the lead back, after rushing for 733 yards and 5 touchdowns on 178 carries last season. A third round pick in 2022, Robinson only averaged 3.89 YPC on 205 carries as a rookie, but he was coming off of an off-season gunshot wound and he was better than his YPC suggested, as he had a 52.7% carry success rate, but just 6 carries of 15+, a number that jumped to 8 in 2023, despite fewer carries. He also has 1.41 yards per route run in his career, so he’s a capable passing down back as well, even if Ekeler is likely to be the primary option in passing situations.

If either Robinson or Ekeler miss time with injury, the other one would likely take on a bigger role and Chris Rodriguez, who is likely be the #3 back again this season, would take on the backup role. A 2023 6th round pick, Rodriguez played just 98 snaps and saw just 53 touches as a rookie last season and would almost definitely be a downgrade from either Robinson or Ekeler if he had to play a significant role for an extended period of time. With Robinson and Ekeler, the Commanders have a good running back tandem, but their depth behind them is at least a minor concern.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Commanders lost wide receiver Curtis Samuel this off-season, after he had a decent, but unspectacular season in 2023, with a 62/613/4 slash line on 91 targets and 1.52 yards per route run. He wouldn’t be a big loss, if not for the fact that the Commanders only replaced him with third round rookie Luke McCaffrey, who will probably be a downgrade in the short-term, even if he has more upside long-term. Even as a rookie, McCaffrey should have a good chance to play a significant role by default, probably as the #3 receiver, with his competition for that role being very underwhelming.

Olamide Zaccheaus, Damiere Byrd, and Jamison Crowder are mediocre veteran options, while Dyami Brown is a 2021 3rd round pick who is running out of time to make good on his upside. Zaccheaus has averaged just 1.18 yards per route run with 104 total catches in five seasons in the league. Byrd has averaged just 1.14 yards per route run with 130 total catches in nine seasons in the league and is now going into his age 31 season and coming off of a 2023 campaign in which he didn’t catch a pass.

Jamison Crowder is the most accomplished of the bunch, with 409 catches and 1.53 yards per route run in his first seven seasons in the league from 2015-2021, but he has caught just 22 passes with 1.35 yards per route run over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season as well. Brown, meanwhile, has just 29 catches and 1.05 yards per route run in three seasons in the league. Even as a third round rookie, it wouldn’t be hard for McCaffrey to beat out all of these receivers for the #3 receiver job and, on the off chance he doesn’t, that will say more about McCaffrey’s slow development than anything positive about his competition.

With Samuel being switched out for McCaffrey, the Commanders will likely rely more on third year receiver Jahan Dotson. Dotson was a first round pick in 2022 was decent in a part-time role as a rookie, with a 35/523/7 slash line on 61 targets and a 1.39 yards per route run average, but he took a step back in a bigger role in year two, with a 49/518/4 slash line on 83 targets and just 0.82 yards per route run. He’s still only going into his age 24 season though and has the upside to make his third season in the league his best yet. That’s not a guarantee, but he should at least have his biggest opportunity yet, as the clear cut #2 wide receiver on this offense.

Fortunately, the Commanders still have #1 receiver Terry McLaurin, who will remain a huge part of the offense, possibly even more so with the absence of Curtis Samuel. A 3rd round pick in 2019, McLaurin has surpassed 1000 yards receiving in four straight seasons, despite poor quarterback play, and he’s averaged a 80/1123/5 slash line per 17 games in his career, with an average of 1.85 yards per route run and 8.67 yards per target. He should still be in his prime in his age 29 season and, with a likely improved quarterback situation and possibly a bigger target share, he should surpass 1,000 yards once again, perhaps with ease.

The Commanders also added veteran tight end Zach Ertz and second round rookie tight end Ben Sinnott to replace off-season departure Logan Thomas, who shouldn’t really be missed, after a 55/496/4 slash line and a 0.96 yards per route run average in 2023. Ertz isn’t likely to be a big upgrade though, after averaging 1.17 yards per route run over the past four seasons and now heading into his age 34 season, so the Commanders will need Sinnott to adapt quickly to the NFL in order to have a real threat at the tight end position, something that is unlikely, given how much tight ends, even future high level tight ends, tend to struggle in their first season in the NFL.

The Commanders also still have John Bates, who played 500 snaps as the backup tight end last season. He has just 53 catches and 0.94 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, but the 6-6 257 pounder is their best blocking tight end and will continue having a role, even if he’s unlikely to play as much as he did a year ago. Top receiver Terry McLaurin elevates this group by himself, but the rest of the bunch is very underwhelming, unless they get a surprisingly good year out of 2022 first round pick Jahan Dotson or one of their two rookies Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

With Chase Young (73.8 PFF grade on 407 snaps) and Montez Sweat (76.8 PFF grade on 377 snaps) being traded mid-season in 2023, the Commanders’ edge defender group was led in snaps played by Casey Toohill (494 snaps) and James Smith-Williams (418 snaps), who struggled with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.6. Neither were retained this off-season, so this will be a completely revamped position group, with the Commanders adding Dorance Armstrong on a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal, Dante Fowler on a 1-year, 3.25 million dollar deal, and Clelin Ferrell on a 1-year, 3.75 million dollar deal.

Armstrong is the best of the bunch, as evidenced by his contract, but he’s never been more than a part-time player, with his three highest snap counts of his career being 507, 542, and 446 over the past three seasons respectively. He’s been an effective part-time player across those past three seasons, with PFF grades of 65.7, 61.8, and 70.1 and a total of 21 sacks, 20 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate in 47 games, but he’s been unspectacular overall and is a projection to the bigger role he will almost definitely play in his new home, so he’s likely to prove to be an overpay.

Fowler has also played pretty well in limited action over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 63.2 and 64.4 and a 16.8% pressure rate over the two seasons, but he only played 614 total snaps in those two seasons and, prior to that, he had finished below 60 in two of his first six seasons in the league. Fowler is also going into his age 30 season now, so he’s likely to struggle in an expanded role in his new home. Ferrell has also played limited roles over the past four seasons, averaging 421 snaps per season. He has finished above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all four seasons, while totaling 9 sacks, 29 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 60 games over that stretch, but he’s struggled against the run and could struggle overall in what is likely to be an expanded role with his new team.

KJ Henry is the Commanders top returning edge defender from a year ago. He only played 281 snaps and the 2023 5th round pick struggled with a 56.9 PFF grade, but he could still have an expanded role in his second season in the league, given the state of this position group. The Commanders also have Andre Jones and Efe Obada as reserve options, but Jones struggled with a 52.6 PFF grade on 171 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2023, while Obada has averaged just 273 snaps per season in six seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 on PFF in five of those seasons, and he now heads into his age 32 season. Overall, this is an underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne return as starters and have been fixtures at the position for years, since being selected in the first round in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Payne has been a decent, but unspectacular all-around player throughout his career, averaging 851 snaps per season, while receiving PFF grades in the 60s in all six seasons. Also a capable run stuffer, Payne has 30 sacks, 37 hits, and a 7.0% pressure rate in 98 career games.

Allen has also played an every down role, playing 792 snaps per season over the past six seasons, but he’s not as well-rounded as Payne, excelling as a pass rusher, with 39 sacks, 65 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 101 career games, but has mostly struggling against the run. With Allen and Payne still only going into their age 29 and age 27 seasons in 2024, I would expect more of the same from both, well-rounded, but unspectacular play from Payne, great pass rush, but poor run defense from Allen, and high snap counts from both.

Part of the reason why Allen and Payne played so much last season is a lack of depth, with John Ridgeway and Phiadarian Mathis struggling with PFF grades of 39.5 and 42.7 on snap counts of 355 and 202 respectively. Allen and Payne will still play a lot of snaps in 2024, but the Commanders did upgrade their depth by using a second round pick on Jer’Zhan Newton, who should be a useful rotational reserve even as a rookie.

Mathis is also a former second round pick, drafted in 2022, but he has not come close to living up to expectations, playing just 3 snaps in an injury plagued rookie season, before struggling mightily in the first significant action of his career in 2023. He still has upside, but I wouldn’t expect him to be any higher than 4th on the depth chart this season. Ridgeway, meanwhile, is a 2022 5th round pick who also struggled with a 48.9 PFF grade on 279 snaps as a rookie. He’s not guaranteed a roster spot, with Newton being added and Mathis having more upside. With Allen and Payne as a solid starting duo and Jer’Zhan Newton being added as depth, this is a solid position group, but they’re pretty thin if Phiadarian Mathis doesn’t take a big step forward.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The position group the Commanders upgraded the most, by far, this off-season is their linebacking corps, where Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner were added on deals worth 31 million over 3 years and 6.5 million over 1 year respectively. Luvu has only been a starter for two seasons, but he flashed potential with a 84.8 PFF grade across 249 snaps in 2021 and then carried that into his starting role, with PFF grades of 74.8 and 80.0 on snap counts of 941 and 989 over the past two seasons, and he’s still only going into his age 28 season, so he should continue playing at that level. He was a great free agent signing who should make a big impact.

Wagner is even more accomplished, playing 64.1 snaps per game in 185 career games and finishing above 60 on PFF in all 12 seasons in the league, with 10 seasons above 70, and 6 seasons above 80, including a 82.4 PFF grade on 1,170 snaps in 2023. However, he’s going into his age 34 season and could drop off significantly this season, which is why he had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency. He’s starting from a pretty high base point if he does decline and could still remain an above average starter, which would be very useful to this defense, but he’s unlikely to be as good as he was in 2023.

Last season, Cody Barton, Jamin Davis, and Khaleke Hudson were an underwhelming trio as the Commanders’ top-3 linebackers, playing 844 snaps, 742 snaps, and 405 snaps respectively and receiving PFF grades of 53.9, 67.6, and 64.6, so Luvu and Wagner should be a huge upgrade. Barton and Hudson are gone and Davis will be the Commanders’ top reserve, a role he is overqualified for, as a 2021 1st round pick who has finished in the 60s on PFF in 54.4 snaps per game over the past two seasons. He hasn’t quite lived up to his draft slot, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and should be more than qualified to fill in if needed in case of injury to Luvu or Wagner. This is a very talented position group, thanks to the Commanders’ off-season additions.

Grade: A

Secondary

While the Commanders’ linebacking corps is their most improved position group, the group that lost the most this off-season was their secondary. Kendall Fuller was their top cornerback last season with a 83.1 PFF grade on 1,020 snaps and Kamren Curl was their top safety last season with a 66.6 PFF grade on 1,088 snaps, but the Commanders didn’t bring either of them back as free agents this off-season and they didn’t adequately replace either one.

At cornerback, the Commanders signed veteran Michael Davis to a 1-year, 3.2 million dollar deal and used a second round pick on Mike Sanristil and they will compete for roles with holdovers Benjamin St. Juste and Emmanuel Forbes, who struggled with PFF grades of 59.9 and 50.9 on snap counts of 1,063 and 482 respectively last season. The Commanders also have 2023 2nd round pick Quan Martin, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, despite being healthy, which isn’t a good sign for his career. All of the aforementioned players are underwhelming options.

Davis has the most experience of the group, starting 74 of the 92 games he has played over the past six seasons, but he has been pretty inconsistent, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those six seasons, including a 56.5 PFF grade on 886 snaps in 2023. His career best season-long grade of 72.7 on 790 snaps was as recent as 2022, so he does have some bounce back potential, still only in his age 29 season, but he’s not a reliable starting option, even as experienced as he is.

The rest of the bunch is much less experienced. Sanristil and Martin both have upside, but never have ever played an NFL snap, which is especially concerning for Martin, as he had plenty of opportunity last season and couldn’t get on the field. Forbes was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled in limited action as his rookie. He could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but would need to take a big step forward to even be a decent starter and that’s far from a guarantee. St. Juste has been in the league for three seasons, but the 2021 3rd round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons and is running out of time to develop into a starting caliber player, already going into his age 27 season.

At safety, Kamren Curl was only replaced by Jeremy Chinn, a 2020 2nd round pick who had a breakout second season in the league with a 71.4 PFF grade on 1,015 snaps, but has not been able to repeat that since, finishing below 60 in his other three seasons and getting benched in 2023, playing just 285 snaps in 12 games. Chinn is only in his age 26 season and could theoretically have bounce back potential, but that’s far from a guarantee and he won’t be guaranteed a starting job, on a 1-year, 4.105 million dollar contract.

Chinn will compete with holdovers Percy Butler and Darrick Forest for the two starting safety jobs. Forrest had a solid 67.0 PFF grade while starting 11 games and playing 849 snaps in 2022 in the first starting experience of the 2021 5th round pick’s career and he seemed on his way to a similar season in 2023, with a 61.1 PFF grade across 328 snaps, while starting the first five games of the season, but then he suffered a season ending injury. Butler then stepped in for him and was decent with a 62.7 PFF grade across 835 snaps in the first starting experience of the 2022 4th round pick’s career. Both are decent starting options, but both are pretty inexperienced and it’s unlikely either has a huge upside. Overall, this is a below average secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Commanders entered the off-season with arguably the worst roster in the league, after losing their final 8 games of last season following trades that sent away the talented edge defender duo of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. This off-season, the Commanders added some free agents, but many of them were overpays and they also let key players from a year ago like Charles Leno, Kendall Fuller, and Kamren Curl leave, opting to mostly build their team through the draft. That could pan out in the long run, but in the short run, the Commanders seem likely to be one of the worst teams in the league again in 2024.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in NFC East

New York Giants 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

In 2022, the Giants made a surprise playoff appearance. They had won a total of just 22 games in the previous five seasons, with a maximum of six wins in a season, and they seemed likely to have a similar season in 2022, but they vastly exceeded expectations with a 9-7-1 record. However, there was reason to believe that wouldn’t continue, as they won 8 of their 9 games by 8 points or fewer, went just 2-6 against playoff qualifiers in the regular season, and finished just 23rd in DVOA. They did win a playoff game, but that came against a Minnesota team that was also not as good as their record in the regular season and in the next round the Giants were blown out by the Eagles.

Despite that, the Giants doubled down on their 2022 success, changing little about their roster and re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones to a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal ahead of free agency,. The decision to double down on 2022 proved to be a mistake, as the Giants fell back to earth in a big way in 2023. They finished just 6-11 and were even worse than that suggests, ranking 30th in DVOA, while finishing with a -6.89% first down rate differential and a -1.14 yards per play differential. Much of the roster disappointed, including Daniel Jones, who completed 67.5% of his passes for an average of 5.68 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while also being limited to 326 snaps in six games by injuries, including a season ending torn ACL.

Jones showed potential in 2022, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.79 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 708 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries (5.90 YPC), which is why the Giants re-signed him long-term at a big number, but that’s his only season out of five that he played at that level. In 59 career starts since being selected 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones has completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 62 touchdowns, and 40 interceptions, while rushing for 1,914 yards and 13 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.77 YPC). He’s also missed time with injury in four of five seasons in the league, which isn’t a surprise, as his playing style exposes him to more hits than an average quarterback.

Jones’ contract put the Giants in a tough position this off-season. He’s owed 36 million fully guaranteed this season, making him basically impossible for the Giants to get rid of this off-season, but they can get out of the remaining two years and 78 million next off-season and they could have used the 6th overall pick in this year’s draft on either Michael Penix or JJ McCarthy to potentially give them a cheaper, long-term upgrade.

Instead, the Giants used the 6th overall pick to build around Jones. The Giants needed help all over their roster, but the decision to pass on a quarterback in the draft could prove to be a mistake. Next year’s draft class isn’t nearly as deep at the quarterback position, so the Giants could find themselves in a position next off-season where they want to move on from Jones and his contract, but don’t have a good alternative and have to continue paying Jones at a high level.

Jones is still only going into his age 27 season and could bounce back, but he’s coming off of a significant leg injury, which hurts his chances, and, at even at his best, he’s not the type of quarterback who can elevate a team by himself. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, as the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and still won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, as it’s very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with the talent he needs to be successful. Jones is set to be above that 11% mark in each of the next three seasons and he is far from the level he needs to be in order to justify that.

Jones will either be backed up by Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito, with Lock being the favorite for the job, after being signed to a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal this off-season. Lock was a second round pick in 2020, but has never developed into a starting caliber player, completing 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.72 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in 23 career starts and he’s not a young prospect anymore, now going into his age 28 season. Lock is likely to be a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor, their primary backup last season, who completed 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.45 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 5 starts, before signing with the Jets this off-season.

However, even with Lock being a backup caliber quarterback, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make starts at some point this season if Jones gets hurt or continues disappointing. DeVito, meanwhile, is likely to be the third string and is not guaranteed a roster spot. He showed some flashes in 6 starts last season, but the 2023 undrafted free agent finished the season with 64.0% completion, 6.19 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions and doesn’t have a high upside. Overall, this is likely to be one of the worst quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The player the Giants drafted instead of taking a quarterback at 6 is wide receiver Malik Nabers, who fills a big need for a Giants team that might not have even had a #2 caliber receiver last season, let alone a #1 receiver. Nabers might not be a #1 caliber receiver right away, but he has the upside to be a legitimate #1 receiver long-term and, given the Giants’ lack of other options, he could easily be the Giants de facto #1 receiver right away in 2024.

The Giants top receiver a year ago was veteran Darius Slayton, who had just a 50/770/4 slash line and a 1.38 yards per route run average. That’s in line with how the 2019 5th round pick has played throughout his career, with a 49/744/4 slash line per 17 games and a 1.42 yards per route run average in five seasons in his career. Still only in his age 27 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024. He’s not a bad receiver, but even as a #2 receiver, he’s pretty underwhelming.

The #3 receiver job will likely go to either 2022 2nd round pick Wan’Dale Robinson or 2023 3rd round pick Jalin Hyatt. Robinson was the de facto #2 receiver last season, but finished with just a 60/525/1 slash line and a 1.31 yards per route run average. Robinson did flash potential with a 1.76 yards per route run average as a rookie, but he only played 229 snaps and couldn’t translate that to a bigger role in his second season in the league. He still has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league, so he’s not a bad #3 receiver, but he would need to take a big step forward to be more than that.

Hyatt, meanwhile, struggled with a 23/373/0 slash line and a 0.96 yards per route run average as a rookie and, while he has the upside to take a step forward in year two, he would need to take a big step forward to even be a caliber #3 receiver. The Giants also took a flyer on veteran Allen Robinson this off-season on a 1-year, 1.41 million dollar deal, but he only got 25k guaranteed and, even in a weak receiving corps, isn’t locked into a role, or even a roster spot. In his prime, Robinson was an impressive receiver, surpassing 1000 yards in a season three times, including a 102/1250/6 slash line as recently as 2020, but he has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run with 1,029 receiving yards in 39 games since then and now he heads into his age 31 season.

With the Giants’ wide receivers being underwhelming as a group last season, this team was actually lead in yards per route run by tight end Darren Waller, who averaged 1.55 and had a 52/552/1 slash line in just 12 games, but he retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 32 season, and he leaves behind pretty big shoes to fill. To replace him, the Giants will likely give more playing time to 2022 4th round pick Daniel Bellinger, who has averaged just 0.93 yards per route run in two seasons in the league. He could still have untapped upside, but he will almost definitely be a huge downgrade from Waller.

The Giants also used a 4th round pick on Theo Jackson and signed veteran Jack Stoll, both of whom are likely to have roles this season, but Jackson is likely too raw to make a significant positive impact as a rookie, while Stoll is a mediocre blocking specialist who has caught just 20 passes in 50 career games, with an average of 0.43 yards per route run. The Giants have some promising young pass catchers, most notably Malik Nabers, but they will miss tight end Darren Waller and, as talented as Nabers is, the fact that the Giants are likely to be led in receiving by a rookie is a big concern for this offense.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley was also a big part of the Giants’ passing game last season, with a 41/280/4 slash line, and he left as a free agent this off-season, but he wasn’t that efficient, with 0.92 yards per route run and 4.67 yards per target. To replace him, the Giants signed Devin Singletary to a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal, much less than the 3-year, 37.75 million dollar deal Barkley signed in Philadelphia, and Singletary might not be much of a downgrade.

Singletary is a slight downgrade in the passing game, with 0.71 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, but Barkley only averaged 3.89 YPC and had a 40.1% carry success rate on 247 carries as a runner last season, while Singletary averaged 4.16 YPC and had a 47.7% carry success rate on 216 carries last season and has averaged 4.56 YPC and a 48.8% carry success rate on 888 career carries. Singletary has played on much better offenses, last season in Houston and previously in Buffalo, while Barkley ran behind PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line in terms of run blocking last season on one of the worst offenses in the league, but they both have 2.99 yards per carry after contact averages in their careers, while Singletary has a 59.5 elusive rating in his career, to Barkley’s 48.4, meaning Singletary has been better at making defenders miss.

Overall, it seems unlikely that Singletary will be a big downgrade from Barkley, even though he came much cheaper than Barkley would have. That being said, one thing Singletary hasn’t done that Barkley has done is play in a feature back role, averaging 13.6 touches per game in his career, as opposed to 20.1 for Barkley, so the Giants will have to rely on their backups more than they would have last season when they had Barkley. Last season, veteran Matt Breida was second on the team in carries among running backs with 55 and he struggled mightily with a 2.75 YPC average.

This season, Breida is no longer with the team, leaving 2023 5th round pick Eric Gray, who rushed for just 48 yards on 17 carries as the #3 running back last season, and 5th round rookie Tyrone Tracy as their top reserve options. Both seem like underwhelming options, but could theoretically have upside and at least one will have to play at least somewhat of a role behind Singletary. This is a pretty underwhelming backfield, led by Devin Singletary, who has never really carried the load, with inexperienced backups behind him, but the Giants won’t miss Saquon Barkley as much as some people expect and they made the right decision paying Singletary rather than him.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

In addition to being one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league, the Giants also ranked dead last in pass blocking grade on PFF in 2023, while allowing the second most sacks in NFL history at 85. In total, the Giants had 12 different offensive linemen start for them last season and only two of them finished above 60 on PFF, with nine of them finishing below 50. This offensive line should be better this season, but mostly by default.

At guard, six players saw starts last season and the only one who finished above 50 on PFF, Mark Glowinski (521 snaps) is no longer with the team, being released this off-season to save 5.7 million ahead of his age 32 season. To try to fix this situation, the Giants gave contracts worth 30 million over 3 years and 15 million over 2 years to Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemunor. Eluemunor was a good signing, but Runyan figures to be an overpay.

Runyan has started 50 games over the past three seasons and is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but he has been middling at best in those three seasons, with PFF grades of 65.1, 62.6, and 54.7. He should be better than most of the Giants’ guards were a year ago, but mostly by default and it’s hard to justify giving him a contract that makes him the 17th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual value.

Eluemunor, on the other hand, has made 31 starts over the past two seasons and has been above average in both seasons, with PFF grades of 75.3 and 68.7. There are two concerns with him though. One is his age, as he’s heading into his age 30 season and will likely start to decline soon, perhaps as soon as this season. The other concern is he’s played right tackle over the past two seasons and, while he does have experience at guard earlier in his career, he wasn’t as good at guard as he’s been at right tackle over the past two seasons.

Mostly a backup in his first five seasons in the league from 2017-2021 (14 starts) and a mediocre one at that (PFF grades below 60 in four of five seasons), Eluemunor proved to be a late bloomer in 2022 and 2023 and it’s possible that will continue despite a position switch, but the combination of his age and a position switch is at least somewhat of a concern for his chances of continuing to play at the level he’s played at over the past two seasons. He should still be a boost for this offensive line though, given what he is replacing.

It’s possible Eluemunor could end up back at right tackle, but in that case the Giants would have to start Aaron Stinnie, another off-season guard addition, or one of their two holdover guards from last season Joshua Ezeudu or Marcus McKethan, all three of whom would probably struggle. Stinnie started 11 games for the Buccaneers last season, but he struggled with a 56.6 PFF grade. He’s also a former undrafted free agent, he had previously only played 137 snaps in five seasons in the league, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he’s a backup caliber player and probably not even a particularly good backup.

Ezeudu and McKethan are younger and could at least have some upside, going in the third and fifth round respectively in 2022, but Ezeudu has PFF grades of 46.0 and 42.4 across seven starts, while McKethan had a 45.4 PFF grade last season in the first action of his career, so both have a long way to go to develop into even decent starters. If Eluemunor moves to right tackle, whoever takes his place at guard would almost definitely be a liability.

The Giants also want to give incumbent right tackle Evan Neal another chance. He’s been horrendous in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 44.1 and 39.8 across 20 total starts, but he was the 7th overall pick just two years ago in the 2022 NFL Draft and he’s only going into his age 24 season, so the Giants aren’t ready to give up on him. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but he has a long way to go to even be a decent starting right tackle.

It’s possible the Giants give up on Neal at some point this season and move Eluemunor out to right tackle, but that would just open up a hole at guard. The other right tackles who started for the Giants last season all struggled and are no longer with the team, so their other right tackle options in 2024 are Matt Nelson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has made 14 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons, and Yodny Cajuste, a 2019 3rd round pick who has only played 278 snaps in five seasons in the league, none of which came last season. As of right now, their best option is to give Neal another chance, with the option to move Eluemunor to right tackle if needed, even if that would open a hole at guard.

The Giants are also giving incumbent center John Michael Schmitz another chance. He was a second round pick in 2023, but he was horrendous in 13 starts as a rookie, with a 41.4 PFF grade. He has the upside to be better in his second season in the league, perhaps significantly better, but he also has a long way to go to even be a decent starter and he could easily be at least below average again. He’s locked into the job though because the only competition the Giants added for him this off-season is Austin Schlottmann, a former undrafted free agent and career backup who has started 14 games in six seasons in the league, with just one season above 60 on PFF.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Giants’ offensive line should at least be somewhat better in 2024 is that they should get a healthier season out of left tackle Andrew Thomas, who is by far their best offensive lineman. Thomas had a 76.1 PFF grade in 2023, but was limited to 576 snaps in 10 starts. Thomas has otherwise only missed five games in three seasons in the league, and he had PFF grades of 78.9 and 89.1 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, so he’s far from a one-year wonder. He’s also a former #4 overall pick and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s possible he still has untapped upside. It’s no surprise the Giants were better offensively last season when he was on the field and they should benefit from getting a healthier season from him in 2024. He significantly elevates an offensive line that is otherwise in pretty terrible shape.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Giants’ defense was their better unit by default in 2023, but they still ranked just 21st in DVOA. They did make a big addition on defense this off-season, trading for franchise tagged Brian Burns, but he didn’t come cheap, with the Giants sending Carolina a second round pick and then giving Burns a 5-year, 141 million dollar deal, making him the third highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual value.

Burns is only going into his age 26 season and has 38.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 64 games over the past four seasons, while exceeding 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in all four seasons, but he has mostly struggled against the run and, as a result, his overall PFF grade over those four seasons are 76.8, 60.8, 64.5, and 73.8. The former first round pick could still have further untapped potential, given his age, and he will definitely help the Giants’ defense, but it’s fair to question if he was worth what the Giants paid for him, given his struggles against the run.

Burns will start opposite Kayvon Thibodeaux, who led this team with an impressive 11.5 sacks last season, but he wasn’t nearly as good as that suggests, as he had just 5 hits and a 8.3% pressure rate and he struggled against the run, leading to an overall PFF grade of just 58.4 across 781 snaps. Thibodeaux was better overall as a rookie with a 71.9 PFF grade across 740 snaps and the former #5 overall pick has a massive upside and is only going into his age 24 season, so he could take a step forward in his third season in the league, possibly a big one that makes his third season in the league the best of his career so far, but he’s not starting from as high of a base point as his sack total in 2023 suggests.

Jihad Ward was second in this position group with 661 snaps played last season and is no longer with the team, but he had just a 42.4 PFF grade and a 6.1% pressure rate, so he won’t really be missed, especially with Brian Burns being added. Azeez Ojulari (424 snaps) and Boogie Basham (194 snaps) do return and will remain the Giants top reserves behind Burns and Thibodeaux. Ojulari has mostly been mediocre in three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 58.3, 62.4, and 51.8 and 16 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 35 games, and he’s missed 16 games with injury across those three seasons, but the 2021 2nd round pick is still only going into his age 24 season and has the upside to make 2024 his best season yet, even if that’s not saying much. At the very least, he should be a capable #3 edge defender.

Basham was also a second round pick in 2021, but he has played just 783 snaps in three seasons in the league, with just a 6.6% pressure rate, and he’s already going into his age 27 season. He’s also already on his second team, acquired last off-season from Buffalo for a swap of late round picks, after the Bills gave up on him just two seasons into his career. He’ll only be the #4 edge defender at best to start the season, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into a bigger role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. With a top-3 of Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Azeez Ojulari, the Giants are in pretty good shape at this position, but Burns probably wasn’t quite worth what the Giants paid for him, Thibodeaux wasn’t nearly as good as his sack total last season suggests, Ojulari has a history of injuries, and their depth outside of the top-3 is very suspect.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Giants’ best defensive player is interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who finished last season as PFF’s #1 ranked interior defender with a 92.9 PFF grade across 709 snaps. Equally dominant against the run as he is as a pass rusher, Lawrence finished the season with 4.5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate, while frequently taking on multiple blockers and making life much easier for edge defenders like Kayvon Thibodeaux. Lawrence is no one-year wonder, either with a 92.0 PFF grade across 864 snaps in 2022, when he totalled 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

A first round pick in 2019, Lawrence also had impressive grades of 76.2, 79.7, and 68.6 in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out as an elite player in his fourth season. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from Lawrence in 2024 and beyond. The Giants were wise to give him a 4-year, 87.5 million dollar extension last off-season, one that already looks like a great value, with Lawrence only being the 9th highest paid interior defender in the league. That contract will only look better as other players sign for more money and Lawrence continues to be one of the best players in the league at his position.

The rest of this position group is a problem though. Leonard Williams was a solid starter next to Lawrence for about half of the 2023 season, with a 67.6 PFF grade across 360 snaps in 8 games, but he was traded to the Seahawks for a second round pick at the trade deadline. That extra second round pick enabled the Giants to trade for Burns and Williams was set to be a free agent anyway, but the Giants missed him after he was gone and didn’t really do anything to replace him this off-season.

The Giants also lost A’Shawn Robinson this off-season and he was second in this position group with 515 snaps played. He only had a 58.6 PFF grade, but the Giants replaced him with Jordan Phillips on a 1-year, 1.79 million dollar deal and he figures to be even worse as the starter opposite Lawrence than Robinson was a year ago. Phillips is experienced, having played 3,674 snaps in nine seasons in the league (408 snaps per season), and he’s been a decent pass rusher in his career, with 24 sacks, 28 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 120 games, but he’s consistently struggled against the run, leading to him finishing below 60 on PFF in all but one season in his career, including a 35.8 PFF grade on 391 snaps last season, and now he heads into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him.

Phillips almost definitely figures to struggle in a starting role, but the Giants don’t have much of a choice, with their alternatives being their top reserves from a year ago, Rakeem Nunez-Roches (461 snaps), DJ Davidson (244 snaps), and Jordon Riley (135 snaps), who all struggled to different degrees, with PFF grades of 46.3, 51.6, and 33.1 respectively. Nunez-Roches is going into his 9th season in the league, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF just three times, with a career best season-long grade of 64.1 in 2021, and he’s averaged just 327 snaps per season, with a career high of 548 snaps in a season in 2022. He’s also going into his age 31 season now, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He’s nothing more than a rotational option and a mediocre one at that.

Davidson and Riley are at least young, going into their third and second season in the league respectively, and could take a step forward in 2024, but Davidson was only a 5th round pick and Riley was only a 7th round pick, so neither entered the league with much upside, and both have a long way to go to even be decent rotational players, let alone starting caliber. Even though they could have untapped upside, both could continue struggling in 2024. Dexter Lawrence elevates this position group significantly by himself, but their lack of capable players other than him is a big concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Giants’ linebacking corps was a position of strength last season and should remain one this season, with all three of their top linebackers from a year ago set to return. Bobby Okereke led this group with a 78.9 PFF grade and 1,128 snaps played, not missing a single snap all season. The 2019 3rd round pick got off to an inconsistent start to his career, but he’s not a one-year wonder, with a 73.3 PFF grade across 970 snaps in 2022 and he’s still in his prime in his age 28 season, so he should remain an above average every down player in 2024.

Micah McFadden was the other starter opposite Okereke and he had a solid 65.6 PFF grade. The 2022 5th round pick struggled mightily with a 38.7 PFF grade across 435 snaps as a rookie, so he could regress in 2024, but he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starting linebacker, or even take another step forward in his third season in the league. It also helps that McFadden doesn’t have to play every down, seeing 736 total snaps, with 376 of them coming on run plays, because the Giants #3 linebacker Isaiah Simmons is a passing down specialist, with a 68.9 PFF grade on 378 snaps in 2023, 294 of which came on pass plays.

Simmons is actually a former 8th overall pick, back in 2020, but he mostly struggled in bigger roles in his first three seasons in the league in Arizona, with PFF grades of 59.9, 51.0, and 67.9 across snap counts of 376, 1,005, and 897. However, he’s always been much better on pass plays than on run plays, so his new role with the Giants makes more sense for him, and he’s still only in his age 26 season, so I wouldn’t rule out him developing into more than a passing down specialist. The Giants won’t need him for more than that though, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Giants don’t have much depth outside of their top-3 linebackers, with the other linebackers on their roster being Carter Coughlin, a 2020 7th round pick who has struggled on 241 career snaps, Matthew Adams, a special teamer who has played 607 snaps on defense in six seasons in the league, Darius Mausau, a 6th round rookie, Dyontae Johnson, a 2023 undrafted free agent who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and Darrian Beavers, a 2022 6th round pick who has never played a defensive snap. However, barring multiple injuries to their top-3 linebackers, this should remain at least a solid position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One player the Giants should have kept this off-season but didn’t is safety Xavier McKinney, who was PFF’s 4th ranked safety last season with a 87.5 PFF grade in 2023, while also playing all 1,128 snaps. Despite that, the Giants didn’t even bother franchise tagging McKinney, or even transition tagging him, which would have allowed them to match the 4-year, 67 million dollar deal he ultimately signed with the Packers, which only makes him the 4th highest paid safety in the league.

McKinney had been inconsistent throughout his first three seasons in the league prior to 2023 and he also missed big chunks of two of those three seasons with injury, but the 2020 2nd round pick was only going into his age 25 season and could continue being one of the best safeties in the league for years to come. Instead, the Giants replaced him in the draft with second round pick Tyler Nubin, who, in addition to costing the Giants a significant draft asset, will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from McKinney in the short-term and is no guarantee to be as good as McKinney in the long-term.

Nubin will start next to Jason Pinnock, a 2021 5th round pick who had a decent 67.7 PFF grade in the first full season of his career as a starter (16 starts, 1,011 snaps), after flashing potential with PFF grades of 70.4 and 61.3 across snap counts of 202 and 459 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Pinnock might not have a high upside, but, still only in his age 25 season, he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter in 2024, though obviously this Giants secondary would be a lot better if Pinnock was still playing next to McKinney, rather than the rookie Nubin.

For depth options behind Nubin and Pinnock, the Giants have Dane Belton, their third safety last season and a 2022 4th round pick who has struggled with PFF grades of 30.6 and 51.7 on snap counts of 390 and 295 in his first two seasons in the league, and they also have veteran free agent addition Jalen Mills. Belton could still have some untapped upside, but he would almost definitely be an underwhelming option if forced into a significant role by injuries or poor play ahead of him on the depth chart and Mills seems likely to win the #3 safety job.

Mills would also probably be an underwhelming option if forced into a significant role though. He has plenty of experience, starting 83 of the 106 games he has played in eight seasons in the league, while having the versatility to play both safety and cornerback, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, including PFF grades of 44.6 and 59.1 on snap counts of 468 and 459 over the past two seasons respectively, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he will likely continue struggling. Pinnock and Nubin are both inexperienced, particularly the latter who is a rookie, but the Giants will need both to stay healthy and at least be decent starters, given the options behind them on the depth chart.

Cornerback was a position of weakness last season, as they had five cornerbacks play at least 300 snaps and only one, Nick McCloud, finished above 60 on PFF and he did so on just 312 snaps. Without any major veteran additions this off-season, the Giants will continue struggling at cornerback unless some young players can take a step forward, but that is at least a possibility. Deonte Banks was a first round pick by the Giants in 2023 and, while he struggled with a 51.4 PFF grade on 844 snaps as a rookie, he has the talent to take a big step forward in his second season in the league.

Banks is probably the only Giants cornerback locked into a starting job, though even that is by virtue of his draft status and upside. Adoree Jackson was second among Giants cornerbacks behind Banks with 792 snaps played last season and he’s no longer on the team, but he struggled mightily with a 48.6 PFF grade and won’t be missed. Cordale Flott was third among Giants cornerbacks with 519 snaps played. He struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade, but he was a third round pick in 2022 and fared better in a smaller role as a rookie, with a 65.8 PFF grade across 335 snaps. Now going into his third season in the league and only his age 23 season, he has the talent to make this year his best year yet, though that’s not a guarantee. He’s probably not locked into a starting job, but he has a good chance to at least be one of the Giants’ top-3 cornerbacks and he’s probably the favorite to start opposite Banks.

Also in the mix for roles are third round rookie Dru Phillips, their lone veteran free agent addition Tre Herndon (1-year, 1.125 million), and Nick McCloud, who was by default their best cornerback a year ago, in a limited role. Herndon had a 70.8 PFF grade across 482 snaps last season, but the 2018 undrafted free agent had previously never had a season-long grade over 60 in his previous five seasons and he’s also only played 368 snaps total over the past three seasons combined, so he’s an underwhelming option for a significant role.

McCloud has PFF grades of 67.0 and 74.8 over the past two seasons on 849 snaps combined, but the 2021 undrafted free agent is still very inexperienced and is a projection to a larger role. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the rookie Phillips had to play a significant role, even though he could struggle in year one. Having lost safety Xavier McKinney, by far their best defensive back last season, the Giants’ secondary is now very underwhelming, even though they do have some young players with upside.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Giants were one of the worst teams in the league last season. They only won 6 games and were even worse than that suggests, ranking 30th in point differential, despite a +12 turnover margin, and ranking 30th in DVOA. This off-season, they haven’t done much to significantly improve. They have added some players like Brian Burns, Malik Nabers, and Devin Singletary, but they have also lost important players like Xavier McKinney, Darren Waller, and Saquon Barkley. Even in the weaker NFC, a lot of things would have to go right for this team to even compete for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

The Cowboys have been among the best teams in the league over the past three seasons, finishing 12-5 in each of the past three seasons, giving them the second most regular season wins in the league over that stretch, only behind the Chiefs. However, while the Chiefs have won two of the last three Super Bowls, the Cowboys have yet to get over the hump in the post-season, going just 1-3 in the post-season, including a big home upset loss to the Packers in the first round last season.

Making matters worse, the Cowboys’ window seems to have closed. In need of more help to get them over the hump, the Cowboys instead added arguably the least of any team in the league this off-season, while parting ways with several key players. In terms of average annual salary, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, the Cowboys went from 8th in last season to just 28th this season. The benefit is the Cowboys now have the 7th most projected cap space in the league next off-season, but, in the short-term, the Cowboys are significantly less talented than a year ago.

Part of the reason the Cowboys couldn’t add more talent this off-season is that their quarterback Dak Prescott has a cap hit of 55.455 million (21.71% of the cap) in the final year of a 4-year, 160 million dollar contract, after years of the Cowboys using his contract to borrow future cap space. The Cowboys could have extended Prescott and lowered his cap hit in the process, but doing so would have required giving Prescott another top of the market contract that would have significantly hurt the Cowboys’ long-term financial flexibility. Instead, the Cowboys seem to be making Prescott prove he can carry a less talented roster before committing to him at a high number long-term. If he can’t do that, it’s possible the Cowboys will opt to move on from him and start over at the quarterback position next off-season, similar to what the Vikings did with Kirk Cousins this off-season.

Like Cousins, Prescott hasn’t been the problem for the Cowboys, completing 67.0% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 202 touchdowns, and 74 interceptions in 114 career starts, but he also hasn’t proven he’s the kind of quarterback who can elevate this team by himself or take a talented roster on a long playoff run. Given that, the Cowboys are smart not to rush into a huge extension with Prescott, as the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, as the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. It doesn’t help matters that Prescott is going into his age 31 season, so his best days could be behind him at this point.

If the Cowboys move on from Prescott next off-season, their options to replace him are limited unless they end up with a high draft pick, so they may opt to replace Prescott internally. Cooper Rush has been a decent backup for several years, as the 2017 undrafted free agent has completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.86 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in six career starts in seven seasons in the league, but he’s a pretty low upside option who is also going into his age 31 season himself.

The more likely option would be Trey Lance, who was the 3rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the 49ers, but who made just four starts and attempted just 102 passes in two seasons in San Francisco, due to injuries and ineffectiveness, before getting traded to the Cowboys for a mid round pick last off-season. Lance is still raw and might not even win the backup job over Rush in 2024, but he’s always had a huge upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cowboys internally viewed him as a potential successor to Prescott, even though he’s yet to throw a regular season pass for them. Overall, the Cowboys have a solid quarterback room, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it looked very different a year from now.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Among the key players the Cowboys lost this off-season were two of their five offensive line starters from a year ago, left tackle Tyron Smith, who had a 83.8 PFF grade in 13 starts, and center Tyler Biadasz, who had a 68.6 PFF grade in 16 starts. To replace them, the Cowboys used first and third round picks on offensive tackle Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe, a collegiate guard who could move to center as a professional. Guyton figures to start at left tackle immediately.

Guyton has a high upside, but could struggle through some growing pains in year one and will almost definitely be a downgrade from Tyron Smith, who was PFF’s 4th ranked offensive tackle in 2023. Meanwhile at center, the Cowboys will either turn to the rookie Beebe or to Brock Hoffman, a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled with a 53.7 PFF grade across 222 snaps as Biadasz’s backup last season, after not playing a snap as a rookie. Whoever wins the job will almost definitely be a downgrade on Biadasz and a liability on this offensive line.

With Guyton being added, Tyler Smith, a first round pick in 2022, will remain at left guard. Smith made 16 starts at left tackle as a rookie in place of an injured Tyron Smith (in addition to one start at left guard) and fared pretty well for a rookie, finishing the season with a 71.4 PFF grade, but he moved to guard in 2023, had a 72.9 PFF grade in 14 starts, and that seems to be where the Cowboys prefer him long-term. Still only in his age 23 season, Tyler Smith could easily have his best season yet in 2024.

On the right side, Zack Martin and Terence Steele remain at guard and tackle respectively. Martin has been one of the best guards in the league over the past decade, being selected in the first round in 2014 and then starting his career with eight straight seasons above 80 on PFF, but he fell to a 73.3 PFF grade in 2022 and then fell further to a 69.8 PFF grade in 2023 and now he heads into his age 34 season and could easily decline further. Even if he doesn’t decline further, his best days are almost definitely behind him. He has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter, but nothing is guaranteed at this stage of his career.

Steele also had a down year in 2023, finishing with a 50.8 PFF grade. Steele also had a 50.3 PFF grade in 2020, so a year like 2023 wasn’t unprecedented for him, but he was a rookie in 2020, he had PFF grades of 64.5 and 73.9 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and last season he was coming off of a torn ACL he suffered late in 2022, which was probably the cause for his struggles, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2024, another year removed from his injury and still only in his age 27 season. Despite going undrafted in 2020, Steele has started 57 in four seasons in the league and seemed to develop into a solid starter before his injury.

Reserve options on this offensive line include swing tackle Chuma Edoga, guard/tackle Asim Richards, guard TJ Bass, tackle Matt Waletzko, and whoever loses the battle for the center job. All seem like underwhelming options. Edoga has made 19 starts in five seasons in the league, but has mostly been mediocre. Richards was a 5th round pick in 2023 and saw action at both guard and tackle, but he only played 40 snaps overall. Bass played 344 snaps last season as an undrafted rookie, but struggled with a 54.1 PFF grade. Waletzko was a 5th round pick in 2022, but has played just 8 snaps total in two seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad offensive line, but they won’t be as good as a year ago without Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz and their depth is a concern if injuries strike.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Cowboys also lost feature back Tony Pollard this off-season, after he played 836 snaps, third most in the NFL among running backs last season. In total, Pollard rushed for 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns on 252 carries, while adding a 55/311/0 slash line on 67 targets. Pollard did only average 3.99 YPC, as well as just 0.78 yards per route run and 4.64 yards per target, but he had an impressive 50.0% carry success rate as a runner and the Cowboys only replaced him by bringing back a familiar face in Ezekiel Elliott, who was originally let go so the Cowboys could afford to franchise tag Pollard last off-season. Elliott is a lot cheaper than Pollard now, signing for only 2 million on a one-year deal, as opposed to the 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal that Pollard signed with the Titans this off-season, but there’s a reason he’s cheaper, as he figures to be a downgrade.

Elliott used to be one of the best running backs in the league and, in total, he rushed for 8,262 yards and 68 touchdowns on 1,881 carries (4.39 YPC) with a 51.9% carry success rate in seven seasons in his first stint in Dallas, but his YPC fell to 3.79 and his carry success rate fell to 47.6% in his final season in Dallas in 2022 and then fell further to 3.49 YPC and 45.1% carry success rate in his lone season in New England in 2023, albeit on an overall poor Patriots offense where he didn’t have much room to run. Now Elliott heads into his age 29 season with 2,421 career touches, which makes him pretty old by running back standards. He shouldn’t still be carrying the load at this stage in his career, but the Cowboys don’t really have much of a choice but to give him a big role.

Rico Dowdle showed some promise as the #2 back last season, rushing for 4.06 YPC and a 47.2% carry success rate on 89 carries, while adding 1.35 yards per route run as a pass catcher, despite being a 2020 undrafted free agent with seven career touches prior to last season. He’s still inexperienced and unproven, but with Elliott replacing Pollard as the lead back, the Cowboys could give Dowdle a bigger role as the #2 back, especially if Elliott struggles as the season goes on and Dowdle continues to impress. Other running back options include veteran free agent addition Royce Freeman, who has averaged just 3.80 YPC on 471 carries in six seasons in the league, and 2023 6th round pick Deuce Vaughn, who had just 30 touches as a rookie last season. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Relative to their running back group and their offensive line, the Cowboys didn’t lose much in the receiving corps. Michael Gallup was released this off-season to save 9.5 million and he wasn’t replaced, but he only had a 34/418/2 slash line and 1.06 yards per route run last season, so he won’t be missed much. The Cowboys could have moved on from Brandin Cooks as well, which would have saved them 8 million ahead of the final year of his contract in 2024, but they opted to keep him.

Cooks was a high level receiver in his prime, surpassing 1000 yards receiving six times in seven seasons from 2015-2021, while averaging 1.86 yards per route run over that stretch, but he fell to a 57/699/3 slash line with a 1.64 yards per route run average in 2022 and then a 54/657/8 slash line with a 1.25 yards per route run average last season and now he heads into his age 31 season. He will continue being the Cowboys #2 receiver in 2024, for lack of a better option, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue declining and, at the very least, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point.

The only wide receiver the Cowboys added this off-season was 6th round pick Ryan Flournoy, who is unlikely to be ready to play a significant role in year one, so the Cowboys will likely promote Jalen Tolbert, the 4th receiver a year ago, to replace Gallup. Tolbert was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has plenty of opportunity in a receiving corps that has lost Michael Gallup (57 targets) and has an aging Brandin Cooks (81 targets), but Tolbert has only averaged 0.89 yards per route run thus far in two seasons in the league, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to make the most of that opportunity.

Tolbert could take a step forward in his third season in the league and be a decent #3 receiver, but anything more than that might be a stretch. Aside from the rookie Flournoy, other wide receiver options the Cowboys have behind their top-3 include 2023 7th round pick Jalen Brooks, who played 77 snaps as a rookie, and KaVontae Turpin, an undersized (5-9 157) gadget player who has played just 202 snaps in two seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2022. If any of their top-3 receivers miss significant time with injury, someone will be forced into a role that they are likely very underqualified for.

Fortunately, the Cowboys do still have #1 receiver Ceedee Lamb, who is one of the best receivers in the league. A first round pick in 2020, Lamb was a big part of this offense immediately as a rookie, with a 74/935/5 slash line and a 1.81 yards per route run average, and he’s gotten better in every season since then, with a 79/1102/6 slash line and 2.06 yards per route run in 2021, a 107/1359/9 slash line and 2.38 yards per route run in 2022, and a 135/1749/12 slash line and 2.78 yards per route run last season, ranking 2nd in the NFL in receiving yardage, 1st in catches, 3rd in receiving touchdowns, and 5th in yards per route run.

Still only in his age 25 season, Lamb should remain one of the best receivers in the game for years to come. He’s going into the final year of his contract and needs to be extended, but, unlike with Dak Prescott, there’s no indication that won’t happen. The Cowboys probably would have saved money by signing Lamb sooner, rather than waiting until after other receivers signed, but even if Lamb ends up surpassing the record breaking 4-year, 140 million dollar deal that Justin Jefferson signed this off-season, it would be hard for him to be overpaid, given how talented he is and how bright his future is.

The Cowboys also still have tight end Jake Ferguson, who was second on this team in targets (102), catches (71), and receiving yards (761), and third in receiving touchdowns (5) last season, while averaging 1.46 yards per route run. With the Cowboys being even thinner at wide receiver than a year ago, Ferguson should continue having a big role. The 2022 4th round pick is just a one-year starter, only playing 430 snaps as a rookie, but he flashed a lot of potential with a 1.66 yards per route run average in his first year in the league and it’s unlikely he would regress significantly in 2024. In fact, Ferguson is still only going into his age 25 season and could have upside to be even better going forward.

Ferguson’s breakout year prevented Luke Schoonmaker from having a big rookie year role, even though he was a second round pick who was likely drafted to be the tight end of the future. Schoonmaker struggled across 369 snaps as a rookie, with a 50.4 PFF grade and a 0.62 yards per route run average, but he has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league. He’ll remain the #2 tight end behind Ferguson, but if he proves worthy of a bigger role, the Cowboys could use more two tight end sets in passing situations this season to offset their lack of wide receiver depth. The Cowboys have one of the best wide receivers in the league in Ceedee Lamb and a talented young pass catching tight end in Jake Ferguson, but this is a very top heavy position group with significant concerns behind Lamb and Ferguson.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Cowboys didn’t lose as much on defense as they lost on offense this off-season, but they still lost some key players, including a pair of edge defenders in Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler. They only played 446 snaps and 271 snaps respectively, but both were useful rotational players, finishing with 7.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate and 4 sacks, 3 hits, and a 17.8% pressure rate respectively in their small roles. To replace them, the Cowboys will probably give a bigger role to youngsters Sam Williams and Viliami Fehoko and they also added another young edge defender in the second round of this year’s draft in Marshawn Kneeland.

Williams was a second round pick back in 2022 and has shown promise in limited roles thus far in his career, with a 70.9 PFF grade on 274 snaps as a rookie and a 68.5 PFF grade on 306 snaps last season, while combining for 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate. Williams is a projection to a larger role, but, still only in his age 25 season with a high upside, he should be capable of a bigger role in 2024 and I would expect him to be their top reserve edge defender. Kneeland also has upside, but could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, while Fehoko is a 2023 4th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie due to injury and underwhelming practice performances. Both should play roles, but I wouldn’t expect them to be as good as Armstrong and Fowler were a year ago or as good as Sam Williams figures to be this season.

Fortunately, the Cowboys still have Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, who are one of the best edge defender duos in the league. Parsons has been one of the best pass rushers in the league since being drafted in the first round in 2021, totaling 40.5 sacks (4th most in the NFL over that stretch), 50 hits, and a 19.9% pressure rate in 50 career games, including 14 sacks, 20 hits, and a 20.1% pressure rate last season. He isn’t as good against the run, but has still finished with overall PFF grades of 89.8, 91.6, and 92.7 on snap counts of 902, 917, and 862 in his three seasons in the league respectively.

Parsons hasn’t won a Defensive Player of the Year award yet, but he has played well enough that he could have won it in any of his three seasons in the league, finishing in the top-3 in voting in all three seasons. Still only going into his age 25 season, Parsons should remain one of the top defensive players in the league for years to come and it would be an upset if he didn’t win at least one Defensive Player of the Year award in his career, if not multiple. In fact, I would consider him the favorite for the award in 2024, given the voters’ preference for players who haven’t won one yet.

Lawrence isn’t as good of a pass rusher as Parsons, but that’s not exactly an indictment on him. In total, he has 49.5 sacks, 61 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 105 games in the past seven seasons and he’s even better against the run, consistently being one of the top run stopping edge defenders in the league throughout his career. Because of his well-rounded play, Lawrence has finished above 80 on PFF in six of the previous seven seasons, with three seasons over 90, including an overall 91.3 PFF grade in 609 snaps in 2023, when he had a 92.4 run defense grade and added 4 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Lawrence is now heading into his age 32 season and could easily decline in 2024, but he’s starting from such a high base point that I would expect him to remain at least an above average starter, even if he declines significantly. Any decline from Lawrence would hurt this defense, especially when coupled with the loss of Armstrong and Fowler, but Lawrence should still remain an above average starter at the very least, Micah Parsons should remain one of the best defensive players in the league, and the Cowboys still have good depth, led by the promising Sam Williams and second round rookie Marshawn Kneeland, so overall this is still a really strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Cowboys also lost a pair of rotational players at the interior defender position this off-season in Johnathan Hankins and Neville Gallimore, but both struggled with PFF grades of 51.8 and 57.8 on snap counts of 350 and 288, so they won’t be missed much. The Cowboys didn’t add any real replacement options this off-season, but they figure to give a bigger role to 2023 1st round pick Mazi Smith, who only played 304 snaps in 17 games as a rookie. Smith struggled in his limited playing time, finishing with a 49.8 PFF grade, so he could be very underwhelming in an expanded role in 2024 if he doesn’t improve significantly, but he at least has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league, even if that’s not a guarantee.

Smith will start next to Osa Odighizuwa, who was by far the Cowboys best interior defender last season, with a 81.4 PFF grade on 635 snaps. Odighizuwa was at his best as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, but he also played well against the run. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Odighizuwa is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the overall level he played at last season, with a 48.5 PFF grade on 614 snaps as a rookie and a 63.3 PFF grade on 616 snaps in 2023, but he’s always been a solid pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 14 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 33 games in his first two seasons combined. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average all around player and, even if he regresses as a run defender, he should remain a useful interior pass rusher.

Chauncey Golston remains on the roster as a reserve option. Also a 2021 3rd round pick, Golston has only played an average of 320 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, but he’s mostly been a capable rotational player, with PFF grades of 59.7, 68.4, and 62.7. He especially is useful as a pass rusher, with a career 9.2% pressure rate. He could see an expanded role in 2024, given the off-season losses the Cowboys have had at the interior defender position, but it probably won’t be a drastically expanded role and, still only in his age 26 season, he could prove to have another level.

The only addition the Cowboys made to their interior defender group this off-season is 7th round rookie Justin Rogers, who is unlikely to play a significant rookie year role and would almost definitely struggle in that role if he did. The Cowboys also have veteran Carl Davis, but he’s never played more than 300 snaps in a season in nine seasons in the league, including just 30 snaps played last season, and he has finished above 60 on PFF in just two seasons of those seasons, so he would almost definitely struggle if he had to play a significant role this season, especially now going into his age 32 season. This isn’t a bad position group, led by a trio of Osa Odighizuwa, Mazi Smith, and Chauncey Golston who are all young players with significant upside, but they all have downside as well and their depth outside of the top-3 is very suspect.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The one free agent addition the Cowboys did make on defense this off-season was linebacker Eric Kendricks, who signed on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. He will be needed because Leighton Vander Esch retired this off-season after a solid, but brief and injury plagued 2023 season in which he had a 65.5 PFF grade in 269 snaps, while Markquese Bell, who had an impressive 80.0 PFF grade on 649 snaps in Vander Esch’s absence, is expected to move to safety in 2024.

Kendricks has been a solid starter for most of his career, playing 61.7 snaps per game in 132 games in nine seasons in the league, while exceeding 60 on PFF in all but two of those seasons, including a 72.3 PFF grade across 847 snaps in 15 games in 2023, but he’s heading into his age 32 season now, so, not only is it unlikely he’ll repeat his 2023 campaign, but he also isn’t guarantee to remain even a capable starter. It’s not a given that he’ll decline significantly, but it’s at least a significant concern and, at the very least, Kendricks seems likely to be a downgrade from Vander Esch and Bell.

Kendricks will start next to Damone Clark, who had a 61.8 PFF grade across 782 snaps in 2023. A 5th round pick in 2022, Clark is only a one-year starter, but he also flashed potential with a 65.5 PFF grade across 398 snaps as a rookie and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain at least a capable starter, with the upside for more, now in his third season in the league. The Cowboys also added Marist Liufau in the third round of this year’s draft to provide depth behind Kendricks and Clark and get DeMarvion Overshown back from a torn ACL that cost the 2023 3rd round pick his entire rookie season. Liufau and Overshown are totally unproven, but at least provide upside as reserves. This is an underwhelming position group overall and they will likely miss Vander Esch and Bell, but they’re not a terrible group at the very least.

Grade: B-

Secondary

As I mentioned, Markquese Bell will move from linebacker to safety this season. Bell was originally a safety and is undersized for a linebacker at 6-3 205, but he held up against the run and excelled in coverage last season, coming out of nowhere after playing just 22 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2022. Not only is he a complete one-year wonder, but it’s fair to question if moving back to safety will be in his best interest, given how well he played at linebacker last season, so I would be surprised if he was as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Bell will likely take over the snaps ceded by free agent departure Jayron Kearse, who played 817 snaps in 2023, but struggled mightily with a 43.1 PFF grade. Fellow safeties Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker also played 731 snaps and 824 snaps for the Cowboys last season, as the Cowboys frequently used three safeties at the same time in sub packages, to mask some of their lack of depth at linebacker, something that is likely to continue in 2024. Both Wilson and Hooker had solid seasons with PFF grades of 68.0 and 77.3 respectively and both remain on the roster for 2024.

Hooker has been a solid starter since entering the league as a first round pick in 2017, finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons, with three seasons above 70, and he is still only in his age 28 season, so he should remain an above average starter in 2024, but durability has been a consistent issue for him, as he’s missed time in every season in the league, while missing 32 games total. Wilson has also finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, with two seasons above 70, but he similarly has missed 17 games in five seasons in the league.

I would expect more of the same from Hooker and Wilson in 2024, solid play, but likely more missed time due to injury. Fortunately, in addition to having Bell, the Cowboys also have Juanyeh Thomas as a reserve option and he flashed a lot of talent with a 81.1 PFF grade in 2023, though it came in just 192 snaps and those were the first snaps of the 2022 undrafted free agent’s career, so he’s still very unproven. When Hooker, Wilson, and Bell are all healthy, all should see roles and Thomas would likely see at least somewhat of a role in the likely scenario that one of the three players ahead of him on the depth chart miss time with injury.

At cornerback, the Cowboys didn’t bring back Stephon Gilmore, who had a 74.4 PFF grade across 999 snaps last season. They do get back Trevon Diggs from a torn ACL that limited him to 101 snaps in two games last season and, in the three seasons prior to his injury, the 2020 2nd round pick had 17 interceptions, tied for the most by a defensive back over that time period. However, Diggs isn’t as good as that suggests, as he also allowed among the most passing yards in the league over that stretch and, as a result, he only had overall PFF grades of 62.7, 59.6, and 66.9 in those three seasons respectively. Now going into his age 27 season, Diggs probably is who he is at this stage of his career, someone capable of making big plays, but also someone who gives up a lot of big plays. He’s unlikely to have as good of an all-around season as Stephon Gilmore had in his absence last season, especially coming off of a significant injury.

DaRon Bland will start opposite Diggs and he had a huge year in Diggs’ absence last season, with a 90.4 PFF grade across 964 snaps (15 starts). A 5th round pick in 2022, Bland showed promise as a rookie, with a 71.9 PFF grade across 597 snaps (8 starts), but his 2023 performance was still a huge jump forward for him. He might not be that good again in 2024, partially because it’s very hard for anyone to be that good two years in a row, partially because he’s still relatively unproven with only one elite season under his belt, but even if he does regress, he has a good chance to remain one of the better cornerbacks in the league and, still only in his age 25 season, he could be one of the better cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Jourdan Lewis remains the third cornerback and will likely continue being a liability. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Lewis showed some promise early in his career, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 48.1, 61.4, 59.1, and 52.5 on snap counts of 817, 801, 315, and 729 over the past four seasons respectively and, now going into his age 29 season, he is unlikely to get any better going forward. The Cowboys don’t really have a good alternative though, as their other cornerback options are Narshon Wright, a 2021 3rd round pick who has played just 272 mediocre snaps in three seasons in the league, Eric Scott, a 2023 6th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and Caelen Carson, a 5th round rookie who would almost definitely struggle in a significant role as a rookie. The Cowboys would be in trouble if any of their top-3 cornerbacks missed significant time with injury, particularly if DaRon Bland missed time, as he elevates this position group significantly by himself. This isn’t a bad secondary overall, but they do have some concerns.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

When you compare the players who left the Cowboys this off-season to the players they added, it’s possible no team lost more this off-season than the Cowboys, who seem to be entering something of a rebuilding process, after three straight disappointing post-seasons. The Cowboys are starting from a pretty high base point, as they had one of the most talented teams in the league last season, and they play in by far the weaker of the two conferences, so they still have a good chance to at least make the post-season, but this team doesn’t look built for a long playoff run once they make it.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

In 2022, the Eagles were one of the best teams in the league, finishing the regular season 2nd in DVOA and coming up just short in a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. In 2023, they got off to a 10-1 start, which might seem like they picked up where they left off, but they were lucky to win many of those games, with seven of their ten wins coming by one score and advanced metrics showing them to be a significantly worse team than the year prior. Sure enough, the Eagles’ luck wore off down the stretch, as they lost five of their final six regular season games and their first round playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a very disappointing final result, given where the Eagles were the year prior. In total, the Eagles were -0.06 in yards per play differential and +0.94% in first down rate differential, while finishing the season 14th in DVOA.

The Eagles’ offense wasn’t the problem in 2023, as they ranked 10th in offensive DVOA, as opposed to 29th in defensive DVOA, but their offensive performance was still a big drop off from 2022, when they ranked 3rd in offensive DVOA. Their personnel didn’t change drastically between the two seasons, as nine of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense in 2022 returned for 2023 and eight of them ranked in the top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense again. The Eagles did have more injuries on offense in 2023, going from 4th in adjusted games lost to injury in 2022 to 11th in 2023, but that didn’t have a big effect on their offense overall.

The biggest issues were that the Eagles lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to the Colts’ head coaching job and replaced him internally with Brian Johnson and that their quarterback Jalen Hurts regressed, two things that were likely related. In 2022, Hurts completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on 165 carries (4.61 YPC), but in 2023, those numbers fell to 65.4% completion, 7.17 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, with 605 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 157 carries (3.85 YPC).

Hurts has overall been a solid starter in four seasons (51 starts) with the Eagles, since going in the second round in 2020, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 67 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, with 2,503 yards and 41 touchdowns on 524 carries (4.78 YPC), but his 2022 season stands out as an outlier four years into his career and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever consistently reach those heights. Hurts is still only in his age 26 season and could benefit from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore being brought in, so I would expect him to be better in 2024 than 2023, but I would also expect him to not be as good as he was in 2022.

Hurts has been pretty durable in four seasons in the league, missing just five games total, while playing in all 17 last season, but his playing style does expose him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, with all of the extra hits he takes from carrying the ball as much as he does. Because of that, the Eagles have prioritized investing in the backup quarterback spot. Veteran Marcus Mariota left as a free agent this off-season, but the Eagles replaced him by taking a flier on Kenny Pickett.

Pickett has been a major bust as a 2022 first round pick (78.8 QB rating in 24 starts with the Steelers), but he only cost the Eagles a swap of mid round picks and a 1.984 million dollar salary and he is still only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside in his new home. Hurts is still an above average quarterback at the very least and Pickett has upside as the backup, so this is a pretty good quarterback room overall, even if Hurts is unlikely to repeat his MVP caliber 2022 season.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

One concern for this Eagles’ offense in 2024 is that they lost future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce to retirement. Kelce was in his 13th season in the league in 2023, but still played at a high level, finishing with a 80.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, so he won’t be easy to replace. To replace him, the Eagles will likely slide Cam Jurgens inside from right guard to center, which he played extensively at the collegiate level, and then to replace Jurgens, the Eagles will likely plug in 2023 3rd round pick Anthony Steen at right guard.

Jurgens is unlikely to be as good as Kelce, while Steen could be a downgrade from Jurgens, meaning the Eagles could have worse play at two spots on the offensive line in 2024, but both at least have upside. Jurgens went in the second round in 2022 and barely played as a rookie (35 snaps), before taking over the starting job in 2023 from free agent departure Isaac Seumala, the one player from the Eagles top-10 in snaps played on offense in 2022 who wasn’t brought back for 2023.

Jurgens was decent in 11 starts (six games missed due to injury), with a 63.0 PFF grade last season, and could take a step forward in his third season in the league, now back at a position where he could be more comfortable, given that it was his primary position in college. I would doubt he can be as good as Kelce this season, but he should at least be a solid starter. Steen, meanwhile, only played 71 snaps as a rookie, playing behind Sua Opeta, who struggled with a 53.2 PFF grade in 528 snaps in Jurgens’ absence last season, but Steen entered the league with significant upside and could be a decent starter in his second season in the league, though that’s not a guarantee.

The Eagles also signed Matt Hennessy this off-season and he could potentially start at either center or guard if the combination of Jurgens at center and Steen at right guard doesn’t work out, though Hennessy’s 1-year, 1.75 million dollar contract suggests the Eagles view him primarily as a reserve. Hennessy missed all of last season with injury and the 2020 3rd round pick had previously only started 22 games in three seasons in the league, while consistently being mediocre in pass protection, but 17 of those starts came in 2021, when he excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade. He has more experience at center than guard (3 starts), but he can play both if needed and, still only in his age 27 season, he’s at least a useful reserve option to have.

The rest of this offensive line remains the same as a year ago, with Jordan Mailata at left tackle, Landon Dickerson at left guard, and Lane Johnson at right tackle. One concern is that Johnson is getting up there in age, now heading into his age 34 season. Johnson hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should at least remain an above average starter, as his 80.9 PFF grade in 2023 was his seventh season above 80 on PFF in 11 seasons in the league, with no seasons lower than 70, but any significant decline from him would be noticeable and negatively affect this offense. Johnson is also a strong candidate to miss time with injury, having missed time in all but two seasons in the league, with 36 total games missed in his career.

Mailata and Dickerson, on the other hand, are much younger. Mailata is in the prime of his career in his age 27 season and also happens to be one of the best left tackles in the league. He was only a 7th round pick in 2018 and didn’t become a starter until 2020, but since then he had had PFF grades of 70.4, 87.4, 76.5, and 84.1, while making 57 total starts in the past four seasons. Given his age, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. Dickerson isn’t as good, but the 2021 2nd round pick has been a solid starter, with PFF grades of 67.3, 67.3, and 70.0 over his three seasons in the league (46 starts) and, still only in his age 26 season, he could have the upside for more in 2024 and beyond.

The Eagles also added Mehki Becton in free agency this off-season and he figures to be the swing tackle behind Mailata and Johnson. A first round pick in 2020, Becton’s career got off to an impressive start, as he had a 74.4 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie, but injuries limited him to just 48 snaps between 2021 and 2022 and he wasn’t nearly as good upon his return in 2023, as he had a 53.2 PFF grade in 16 starts. Becton is still only in his age 25 season, so he was a worthwhile flier and at least has the upside to be a solid starter if Mailata or Johnson miss time with injury.

Along with Matt Hennessy on the interior, Becton will be one of the Eagles’ top reserves this season, with their only other reserve options being 5th round rookie guard Trevor Keegan and 6th round rookie center Dylan McMahon. This offensive line won’t be as good as a year ago with Jason Kelce retiring and Lane Johnson getting up there in age as well, but they ranked 1st in pass blocking grade on PFF and 3rd in run blocking grade last season, so, even they aren’t as good, this is still an above average unit.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Behind Jason Kelce, the second most important offensive player the Eagles lost this off-season is running back D’Andre Swift. At first glance, Swift would seem to be a big loss, as he rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) last season, ranking 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, but Swift benefited a lot from running behind one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league. The Eagles also upgraded on him by signing Saquon Barkley in free agency.

Barkley didn’t come cheap, with his 3-year, 37.75 million dollar deal making him the 4th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary, but, in a way, Barkley is not only a replacement for Swift, but also for Jason Kelce. Swift was an explosive back last season and was useful in passing situations (39/214/1 slash line), but he was not as good in short yardage situations, so the Eagles frequently used Jalen Hurts as their short yardage back, specifically on quarterback sneaks behind Kelce, known as the infamous Tush Push play. With Kelce gone, that play will be a lot more difficult for the Eagles, but Barkley is a much better short yardage back than Swift, while also being explosive and useful in passing situations, so he can make up for the loss of Swift and, at least somewhat, for the loss of Kelce.

Barkley only averages 4.34 YPC and a 42.5% carry success rate on 1,201 carries in six seasons in the league, with 1.15 yards per route run, and he’s missed 25 games due to injury, including 22 over the past four seasons, when he has just 4.01 YPC and a 43.2% carry success rate on 723 carries, with just 0.96 yards per route run, but he’s proven capable of carrying the load, with 20.1 touches per game in his career, and his production is more impressive when you consider that he has spent his career on one of the consistently worst offenses in the league, running behind one of the consistently worst offensive lines in the league. In a much better situation in Philadelphia and still only in his age 27 season, Barkley should see a huge increase in efficiency in his new home.

Barkley will be backed up by Kenneth Gainwell, who averaged 4.33 YPC with 2 touchdowns on 84 carries and 0.81 yards per route run with a 30/183/0 slash line as a pass catcher last season. In total across three seasons in the league, Gainwell has averaged 4.37 YPC on 205 carries, while catching 86 passes for 605 yards and 1 touchdown and averaging 1.01 yards per route run in 49 career games. Barkley will carry the load as a runner and a receiver, but Gainwell will spell Barkley here and there, particularly in obvious passing situations.

Barkley’s injury history is a concern and, if he misses time, Gainwell will take on a bigger role, but probably wouldn’t carry the load, with the Eagles likely to also mix in 4th round rookie Will Shipley and also possibly Tyrion Davis Price, who came into the league with upside as a 2022 3rd round pick by the 49ers, but who has only seen 40 touches in two seasons in the league. Shipley and Davis-Price have upside, but would almost definitely be significant downgrades from Barkley if he missed significant time with injury, as would Gainwell. Led by free agent acquisition and new feature back Saquon Barkley, the Eagles are in pretty good shape at the running back position, although Barkley’s injury history and their underwhelming depth behind him is a concern.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Even with quarterback Jalen Hurts regressing and this offense as a whole regressing, the Eagles still got great seasons in 2023 out of their top-2 wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both surpassed 1,000 yards receiving again for the second straight season, one of three wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1,000 yards receiving last season. Brown led the way with a 106/1456/7 slash line, after a 88/1496/11 slash line in 2022. In total, Brown has averaged 2.58 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, including averages of 2.59 and 2.52 over the past two seasons respectively and, still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, Brown should continue giving the Eagles more of the same in 2024.

Smith hasn’t been quite as good, but the 2021 first round pick had a 64/916/5 slash line with 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie and then has followed that up with slash lines of 95/1196/7 and 81/1066/7 on averages of 1.98 yards per route run and 1.79 yards per route run over the past two seasons respectively. Also still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Smith in 2024 as well. Smith and Brown should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league this season.

The issue with this receiving corps last season was everyone else. Notably tight end Dallas Goedert disappointed in a big way. In 2022, Goedert had a 55/702/3 slash line, but in 2023 that fell to 59/592/3, even though he went from playing 12 games to 14 games and saw his targets increase from 69 to 83. On a per target basis, he went from 10.17 yards per target in 2022 to 7.13 yards per target in 2023 and on a per route run basis he went from 1.82 yards per route run in 2022 to 1.35 yards per route run in 2023.

Last season looks like a fluke when you look at Goedert’s career overall, as he had previously averaged 1.80 yards per route run and 8.79 yards per target in his first five seasons in the league prior to 2023 and, still only in his age 29 season, he has a lot of bounce back potential, which would be great for this offense. He does have a history of injuries though, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and not playing in every game since his rookie year in 2018. He’ll likely miss more time again in 2024, but chances are he’ll be more effective when on the field than he was a year ago.

Quez Watkins, the Eagles’ third receiver, also took a step back in 2023. He was never that productive, with just a 33/354/3 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run in 2022, but he fell to a 15/142/1 slash line and 0.74 yards per route run in 2023, while the Eagles’ other receivers, Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones, were even worse, averaging 0.53 yards per route run and 0.47 yards per route run respectively. All three of those aforementioned receivers are no longer with the team, but the Eagles aren’t necessarily going to get better play out of their replacements.

Veteran Parris Campbell, the favorite for the #3 receiver job, only has a career yards per route run average of 1.06 and he’s also injury prone, missing 39 games total in five seasons in the league, while exceeding 12 games played in a season just once, and the Eagles other wide receiver options are 5th and 6th round rookies Ainias Smith and Johnny Wilson, who are both likely to struggle if they have to play significant roles as a rookie. The Eagles don’t have much depth at tight end either, with their backup tight end options being veteran CJ Uzomah, who heads into his age 31 season having averaged 1.01 yards per route run with 192 catches in 106 career games, and Grant Calcaterra, a 2022 6th round pick who has played just 346 snaps in two seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.97 yards per route run.

This is nothing new for the Eagles though, as their’ #2 tight end the past two seasons has been Jack Stoll, a decent blocker who has played 1,012 snaps between the two seasons, but who has averaged just 0.45 yards per route run. A free agent departure this off-season, Stoll won’t be missed, even in a thin receiving corps. The Eagles have a great top wide receiver duo and could get a bounce back year from Dallas Goedert, but their lack of wide receiver and tight end depth is a significant concern, especially if this top-heavy receiving corps loses one of it’s top-3 options for an extended period of time.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Eagles’ offense took a small step back in 2023, their defense took a big step back and was the primary reason for this team’s disappointing season, going from 3rd in defensive DVOA in 2022 to 29th last season. There were a few reasons for this. For one, unlike on offense, where the personnel was mostly the same from 2022 to 2023, the Eagles’ defense lost five of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last off-season. The Eagles also had significant injury problems on defense last season, with the 29th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league.

On top of that, much like on offense, a coordinator change was part of the problem, as the Eagles went from Jonathan Gannon, who became the Cardinals head coach, to the underwhelming combination of Sean Desai and Matt Patricia. The coordinator issue was solved this off-season, as the Eagles hired Vic Fangio, one of the most proven defensive coordinators in the league. The Eagles’ defense should also be healthier than a year ago. As a result, the Eagles’ defense should be significantly better than a year ago.

The Eagles’ personnel is still not at the same level as 2022 though, so I wouldn’t expect them to bounce all the way back. One of the key players the Eagles lost last off-season was interior defender Javon Hargrave, who had a 78.2 PFF grade across 711 snaps in 2022, and this off-season, the Eagles lost another interior defender Fletcher Cox, who retired after a 75.7 PFF grade across 683 snaps in 2023. The Eagles didn’t do anything to replace Cox this off-season and, as a result, will be relying getting bigger roles out of holdovers Jalen Carter (562 snaps), Jordan Davis (519 snaps), Milton Williams (494 snaps), Marlon Tuipulotu (161 snaps), and Moro Ojomo (68 snaps).

Davis and Carter were first round picks in 2022 and 2023 respectively and both should be capable of taking on larger roles. Davis flashed potential with a 71.4 PFF grade across 225 snaps in 2022 and then carried that into a bigger role in 2023, when he had a 70.5 PFF grade. Still only in his age 24 season, Davis has a huge upside and should at least be an above average starter in 2024. Carter, meanwhile, has an even higher upside after a 89.0 PFF grade as a rookie, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate. Development isn’t always linear and he might not be as good in 2024 as it was in 2023, especially in a bigger role, but he looks likely to develop into one of the consistently best interior defenders in the league for years to come.

Milton Williams was a 3rd round pick in 2021. He struggled as a rookie, but he has turned into a solid rotational player over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 72.6 and 69.7. He’s a projection to a larger role, never exceeding 500 snaps played in a season, but he won’t have a huge role unless Davis or Carter miss significant time with injury and, still only going into his age 25 season, he could still have untapped upside.

Tuipulotu and Ojomo won’t have to play huge roles behind Davis, Carter, and Williams, barring injury, but both will still probably have to play more than they have in the past. Tuipulotu has mostly struggled across 448 total snaps in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021, while Ojomo barely played as only a 7th round rookie last season and doesn’t have a high upside. The Eagles will miss Fletcher Cox, but this is still a talented position group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Eagles’ team leader in sacks last season was Haason Reddick with 11 and he added 15 hits and a 12.0% pressure rate, while receiving an overall 75.2 PFF grade across 861 snaps, but the Eagles traded him away this off-season, getting back a conditional 2026 3rd round pick from the Jets. Reddick was obviously a big part of this defense, but he was going into his age 30 contract year and the Eagles not only got a valuable pick in return for him, but got out of paying him 15 million this season, which allowed them to sign a younger replacement Bryce Huff in free agency, bringing the ex-Jet in on a 3-year, 51.1 million dollar deal.

Huff has never played anywhere near the snap count that Reddick played last season, as the 481 snaps Huff played last season were a career high, but he has excelled in limited action over the past two seasons, with 13.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a whopping 20.3% pressure rate in a part-time role. He’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he could have further untapped upside, and the Eagles probably won’t need him to play as much as Reddick did last season, because they also used a third round pick on Jalyx Hunt and will likely get more out of 2023 1st round pick Nolan Smith. Smith only played 187 snaps as a rookie, but has the upside to take a big step forward and play a bigger role in year two in 2024.

With Hunt being added and Smith set to play a bigger role, Josh Sweat also probably won’t play as many snaps as he did last season, when he played 828 snaps opposite Reddick. Sweat wasn’t bad, with a 68.3 PFF grade and 6.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, but he’s been better in the past on smaller snap counts, with PFF grades of 70.2, 76.1, and 86.6 on snap counts of 422, 654, and 587 the three seasons prior to last season. Still only in his age 27 season, Sweat could easily bounce back in a likely smaller role in 2024.

The Eagles also still have Brandon Graham, who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league over the past decade or so, exceeding 80 on PFF in ten of the past twelve seasons, totaling 70 sacks, 91 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 179 games and dominating against the run. That has continued over the past two seasons, when he has PFF grades of 89.8 and 800. However, he has only played 474 snaps and 394 snaps over the past two seasons respectively and, now going into his age 36 season, he shouldn’t play more than those snap counts. Even if he doesn’t, he could still decline significantly, given his age. He could still be a useful rotational player and won’t need to play a big role unless multiple other players miss significant time with injury, but his age is a significant concern. This is overall a very deep position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Eagles’ linebacking corps is the group that has seen the most changes over the past couple off-seasons. TJ Edwards and Kyzir White were a high level duo on their talented 2022 defense, but both left as free agents last off-season. They were replaced last off-season by Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow, who were surprisingly solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 69.4 on snap counts of 834 and 717 respectively last season, but again both were not retained this off-season. To replace them, the Eagles signed Devin White to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and will likely promote Nakobe Dean, a 2023 3rd round pick who played just 38 snaps as a reserve last season, to a starting role for his second season in the league.

White was the 5th overall pick by the Buccaneers in 2019 and started 75 of 76 games played in five seasons in Tampa Bay, while averaging 64.0 snaps per game, but overall he has not been a good starter. He’s an above average blitzer, but has never finished above 60 on PFF for a season either in coverage grade or in run defense grade, which is a big problem because 86.9% of his career snaps have come against the run or in coverage, a number that is unlikely to change this season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could theoretically have untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to become a capable every down player and will likely continue struggling in that role in his new home.

Dean has the upside to be a solid starter, but he’s very unproven and could also easily struggle. The Eagles don’t have much of a choice but to give him a chance though, as their other options are 5th round rookie Jeremiah Trotter, and veteran career backups Oren Burks and Zach Baun, who were signed this off-season after playing 967 snaps in six seasons in the league and 664 snaps in four seasons in the league respectively. Overall, this linebacking corps looks like it will be a major liability.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles will probably try to mask their lack of linebacker depth by frequently playing three safeties together in sub packages, with one playing close to the line of scrimmage as a de facto linebacker. The Eagles didn’t bring back veteran Kevin Byard as a free agent, after he had a 73.7 PFF grade in 10 games as a mid-season trade acquisition last season, but the Eagles are still much deeper at safety than linebacker.

Byard is being replaced by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, with two seasons over 70, though he has concerningly missed 25 games over the past four seasons, not playing in every game since his rookie season in 2019. Gardner-Johnson is probably the Eagles’ most versatile safety and would most likely be the one to play close to the line of scrimmage in sub packages.

The Eagles also bring back Reed Blankenship, a 2022 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 75.2 PFF grade across 292 snaps as a rookie, before carrying that over into a starting role in 2023, when he had a 73.4 PFF grade across 942 snaps. Also returning is 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown, who was decent with a 62.0 PFF grade in 334 snaps as a rookie, showing he could potentially be a future starter. On top of that, the Eagles are expected to move cornerback James Bradberry to safety at least part-time, if not full-time.

Bradberry started 108 of 109 games played at cornerback in his first seven seasons in the league from 2016-2022, while finishing above 60 in every season, including two seasons above 70, but he fell to a 56.6 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2023, and now heads into his age 31 season, so the position change is likely necessary for him to continue playing a significant role as he gets older and slower. Gardner-Johnson and Blankenship will likely start in base packages, with Bradberry playing a sub package role and Sydney Brown providing great depth in case one of the other three gets hurt.

The reason the Eagles can move Bradberry to safety is because they are much deeper at cornerback than a year ago, getting Avonte Maddox back after an injury plagued 2023 season and adding Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first and second round of the draft respectively. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Maddox will likely take back his old slot cornerback role, in which he had PFF grades of 72.8 and 71.3 on snap counts of 729 and 457 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, before being limited to 141 snaps in four games last season.

It’s worth noting that Maddox has missed 35 games in six seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2018 and has never played in every game in a season, but, when on the field, he will almost definitely be an upgrade over Bradley Roby, Eli Ricks, Josh Jobe, and Kelee Ringo, who all saw action in Maddox’s absence last season and finished with PFF grades of 59.6, 46.4, 40.8, and 64.5 on snap counts of 344, 301, 240, and 198 respectively.

Only Ringo, a 2023 4th round pick and the best of the bunch by default last season, was brought back and, though he could develop into a useful player long-term, he is unlikely to see much, if any of a role in 2024 in a much deeper position group than a year ago. The rookies Mitchell and DeJean will compete for a starting job, with Mitchell being the heavy favorite by virtue of where he was drafted, and veteran Darius Slay will remain the other starter, even heading into his age 33 season.

Slay has definitely shown signs of decline, falling from a 81.3 PFF grade in 2021 to a 73.1 PFF grade in 2022 to a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, when he also missed five games due to injury, but he could remain a solid starter for at least another season, though at this stage of his career, that’s not a guarantee. This also could easily be his last season in Philadelphia, given his 16.1 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2025 and the young cornerbacks the Eagles have brought in over the past two drafts. The Eagles’ secondary was a liability last year with Slay and Bradberry aging and Avonte Maddox missing significant time, but Maddox should be healthier and the addition of cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the draft gives the Eagles’ cornerback room much needed youth.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Eagles disappointed in 2023, after being one of the best teams in the league in 2022. This season, they’re still unlikely to be as good as 2022, but they should be better than a year ago. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has bounce back potential, especially with a new offensive coordinator, and their offensive supporting cast around him remains solid. Meanwhile, their defense should be healthier and much better coordinated than a year ago and also still has significant talent. With the Cowboys getting significantly weaker this off-season, the Eagles should be considered NFC East favorites and they should have a good chance to win at least a playoff game or two in the overall weak NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC East

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterbacks

The Steelers snuck into the post-season last year at 10-7, but they needed a 9-2 record in one-score games to do that, which is highly unlikely to happen again in 2024. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Steelers were below average, at -0.39 and -0.78% respectively. If the Steelers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely need to be better in both of those metrics, especially since the AFC figures to be even tougher than a year ago, with Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers both returning from injury plagued seasons.

There are some reasons why the Steelers could be better in those metrics than a year ago. One is an overhauled quarterback position. Two off-seasons ago, the Steelers took a shot on Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but he struggled mightily across two seasons as the starter, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 24 starts. This off-season, the Steelers gave up on Kenny Pickett, trading him to the Eagles for minimal compensation, and also let Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky, who also made starts last season, leave in free agency.

In total, the three quarterbacks who started for the Steelers last season combined for 63.8% completion, 6.76 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 84.6, 21st in the NFL, a big part of the reason why the Steelers’ offense struggled last season, ranking 22nd in yards per play and 27th in first down rate. The Steelers didn’t make any big splash additions at the quarterback position this off-season, but they took fliers on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, giving Wilson a 1-year, 1.21 million dollar deal and trading away a conditional late round pick to take on the remaining 1 year and 3.23 million left on Fields’ contract. It wouldn’t be hard for them to be better than what the Steelers had a year ago, even if only by default.

Wilson is considered the favorite for the starting job, but it will be a competition between him and Fields and it’s very possible both see starts at some point this season. Wilson was once one of the better quarterbacks in the league, making 158 starts for the Seahawks over a 10-year period from 2012-2021, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions, while adding 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries (5.54 YPC).

However, in two seasons since, Wilson has completed 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 30 starts for the Broncos, while adding 618 yards and 6 touchdowns on 135 carries (4.58 YPC). Now going into his age 36 season, Wilson’s best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s not totally over the hill age wise and could bounce back at least somewhat in his new home. At the very least, he was a worthwhile addition on a minimum contract that allows the Steelers to invest heavily in the rest of their roster.

Justin Fields, meanwhile, is a younger option, going into his age 25 season, and the 2021 11th overall pick has a much higher upside than the aging Wilson, but he’s been mediocre throughout his career, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 356 carries for 2,220 yards and 14 touchdowns (6.24 YPC) in 38 starts in three seasons with the Bears. He was also a worthwhile addition at a cheap price, but, like Wilson, he could also prove to be an underwhelming option. Wilson and Fields might be better by default than what the Steelers had at quarterback last season, but this still looks like a well below average quarterback room.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Steelers also invested heavily in their offensive line this off-season, using 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks on offensive tackle Troy Fautanu, center Zach Frazier, and guard Mason McCormick. This has been a multi-year rebuilding process on the offensive line, as the Steelers added tackle Broderick Jones in the first round and Isaac Seumalo on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season and added guard James Daniels on a 3-year, 26.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago.

This offensive line was still mediocre last season, run blocking pretty well, ranking 13th on PFF in team run blocking grade, but struggling mightily in pass protection, ranking 31st. In 2024, they have a good chance to improve. Jones, the 14th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, took over as the starting right tackle in week 9 of his rookie season, sending veteran Chukwuma Okorafor to the bench. Jones wasn’t really an upgrade over Okorafor, posting a 60.7 PFF grade to 60.4 for Okorafor, but he has much more upside long-term.

Meanwhile, Troy Fautanu, the 20th overall pick in this year’s draft, will likely take the starting job at left tackle from incumbent Dan Moore, a 2021 4th round pick who had made 49 starts in three seasons in the league, but has mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 57.8, 62.4, and 51.8. With Okorafor being let go this off-season, Moore will take his place as the swing tackle. Fautanu and Jones are still a young, inexperienced starting duo, and Fautanu in particular could have some growing pains in year one, but both have huge upsides and it wouldn’t be hard for them to be an upgrade over the Steelers’ tackles last season, when Jones was a rookie and Dan Moore struggled in 16 starts.

Second round rookie Zack Frazier could also have growing pains in year one, but it also wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over incumbent starting center Mason Cole, who had a 57.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and subsequently was released this off-season. Meanwhile, fourth round rookie Mason McCormick will almost definitely begin his career as a reserve, with veterans James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo still locked in as the starting guards.

Daniels, a second round pick in 2018, has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons. He’s only finished above 70 in one season, with a 71.8 grade back in 2021, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should remain at least a decent starter this season, if an unspectacular one. Daniels is also a versatile player who has 8 career starts at center and could move there in case the rookie Frazier struggles or gets injured.

Seumalo, meanwhile, is a 2016 3rd round pick and has made 71 starts over the past six seasons, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons, with finishes above 70 in each of the previous three seasons. He is going into his age 31 season and could start to decline, but he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starter, even if he’s not at his best. Along with the rookie McCormick, the Steelers also have veteran Nate Herbig as a reserve option at guard and he’s a solid option, finishing above 60 on PFF in three of the past four seasons, with 30 starts over that stretch. This is still an unspectacular offensive line, but they have a good chance to be better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers’ passing game was obviously a weakness last season, with poor quarterback play and an offensive line that struggled in pass protection, but that offensive line was much better in run blocking and the Steelers had much more talent at the running back position than they did at the quarterback position, led by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, a pair of talented running backs. Harris and Warren return in 2024 and should have similar roles to a year ago.

Harris outcarried Warren 255 to 149, even though Warren had a big edge in YPC at 5.26 to 4.06. That’s been the case for the past couple seasons. Harris, a first round pick in 2021, has 834 carries over the past three seasons, second most in the NFL over that span, but he only has a 3.92 YPC average, while Warren, a 2022 undrafted free agent, had a 4.92 YPC average across 77 carries as a rookie, before seeing a slightly bigger role last season.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Steelers’ offense would be better off if Warren overtook Harris as the starter though. Harris’ YPC average isn’t nearly as good as Warren’s, but Harris gets most of the hard yards and has a solid 47.2% carry success rate in his career, only slightly behind Warren, who has a 50.9%% carry success rate in his career. Harris is also a much bigger back (6-1 240 vs. 5-8 215) and is more suited to a bigger role, while Warren could possibly wear down and not be as efficient in a larger role. I would expect both to see similar carry totals in 2024 as they did in 2023.

Warren is the primary passing down back though, with a 61/370/0 slash line and a 1.45 yards per route run average last season, as opposed to 29/170/0 and 0.85 yards per route run for Harris. Warren also averaged 1.24 yards per route run as a rookie, while Harris has averaged just 0.90 yards per route run in his career. Warren and Harris are a good tandem that complements each other’s abilities well and both are still only in their age 26 seasons, so they should continue playing at a similar level in 2024.

Harris has never missed a game with injury, while Warren has missed just one, but if either misses time with injury in 2024, the other would likely take over an expanded role, with #3 running back Cordarrelle Patterson taking over the backup role. Signed as a free agent this off-season, Patterson has a 1.30 yards per route run average and 298 catches in 170 career games, as well as a 4.89 YPC average on 514 carries, so he’s a well-rounded player who can play different roles, but he’s going into his age 33 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Overall, this is a pretty solid backfield.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One big concern for this offense is the receiving corps. A year ago, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson led the way with slash lines of 63/1140/5 and 51/717/5 respectively, while averaging 2.11 yards per route run and 1.97 yards per route run respectively, but after them the Steelers’ third leading receiver was running back Jaylen Warren with 370 receiving yards. Poor quarterback play didn’t help matters, but the Steelers’ receiving corps deserves a lot of blame and, overall, this was a really thin group a year ago. Making matters worse, the Steelers traded away Johnson this off-season, without really replacing him. The Steelers also lost their #3 receiver from a year ago, Allen Robinson, although he won’t really be missed, after a 34/280/0 slash line and a 0.70 yards per route run average.

To try and replace the receivers they lost this off-season, the Steelers signed veteran Van Jefferson and used a third round pick Roman Wilson and they will probably give a bigger role to 2022 4th round pick Calvin Austin, but all three of those players are underwhelming starting options, leaving this group very thin behind Pickens. Jefferson was a second round pick in 2020, but has only averaged 1.16 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and is already going into his age 28 season, so he’s running out of time to make good on his upside. Roman Wilson has upside, but is still just a mid-round rookie and could easily struggle in a significant year one role. Calvin Austin, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.79 yards per route run in two seasons in the league and doesn’t seem like he’s about to take a huge step forward and be a starting caliber receiver.

George Pickens, a 2022 2nd round pick who is only going into his age 23 season, could take on a bigger target share, but he’ll need to develop more as a short-to-intermediate route runner for that to happen, as 60.4% of his targets, 49.2% of his catches, and 75.5% of his receiving yardage came 10+ yards downfield in 2023. As a rookie in 2022, it was a similar story, as Pickens had a 52/801/4 slash line and 1.38 yards per route run, with 64.3% of his targets, 53.8% of his catches, and 80.0% of his receiving yardage 10+ yards downfield. He still could have further untapped upside, but will need to become more than just a deep threat to take on the bigger target share the Steelers will need him to.

Given the situation at wide receiver, expect the Steelers to continue to heavily target their running backs in the passing game and they could also give a big target share to tight end Pat Freiermuth. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Freiermuth had a 60/497/7 slash line with 1.26 yards per route run on 79 targets as a rookie, then took a step forward with a 63/732/2 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run on 98 targets in 2022, but took step back in 2023, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run in a season in which he also missed five games with injury and finished with just a 32/308/2 slash line on just 47 targets. He’s still only going into his age 26 season in 2024 though and should have plenty of opportunity as a short-to-immediate target in this passing game, so he could have an impressive statistical season if he’s healthy and can rediscover his 2022 form, still only in his age 26 season.

The #2 tight end job will likely go to Darnell Washington, who only caught 7 passes and averaged 0.44 yards per route run as a third round rookie in 2023, but who is a good blocker and has the upside to take a step forward as a receiver in his second season in the league in 2024. In total, Washington played 509 snaps as a rookie, with 324 of them coming on running plays. The Steelers also have Connor Heyward, who isn’t the blocker Washington is, but who took over Freiermuth targets when he was hurt last season, finishing the season with a 23/167/0 slash line on 34 targets, with a 15/118/0 slash line on 20 targets in the five games Freiermuth missed. In total, he played 401 snaps last season, with 226 of them coming on passing plays.

Heyward, a 2022 6th round pick, also played 175 snaps and had a 12/151/1 slash line as a rookie and he has a decent, but unspectacular 1.14 yards per route run average between the two seasons. Freiermuth would probably have to get hurt again for Heyward to see a significant role again, but he’s not bad insurance to have. Overall, this is a below average receiving corps with a lot of issues behind #1 receiver George Pickens, who is a pretty one-dimensional deep threat.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Steelers’ defense was their better side of the ball last season, ranking 23rd in yards per play allowed and 9th in first down rate allowed. The strength of this defense was the edge defender position. TJ Watt is a well-known former Defensive Player of the Year and he played at that level again in 2023, with a 91.9 PFF grade across 930 snaps, 19 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate, but Alex Highsmith, who plays opposite Watt, wasn’t far behind, with a 90.3 PFF grade across 909 snaps, 7 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate.

Watt is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league regardless. The 2017 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five straight seasons above 80 and three seasons over 90, while totaling 76.5 sacks, 89 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 83 games over those past five seasons.

Highsmith, on the other hand, is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he also had PFF grades of 72.0, 67.2, and 78.0 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so, even if he regresses in 2024, he should remain at least an above average starter and, still only in his age 27 season, it’s possible the 2020 3rd round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain at a similar level to how he played last season.

Markus Golden also thrived as the top reserve last season, only playing 230 snaps, but recording a 86.5 PFF grade, with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in limited action. He wasn’t brought back this off-season, but the Steelers should still have at least one good reserve option in Nick Herbig, a 2023 4th round pick who flashed a lot of potential with a 80.7 PFF grade on 191 snaps as a rookie. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but won’t have to play too much unless Watt or Highsmith miss an extended time with injury and he has a good chance to be an above average reserve and make up somewhat for the loss of Golden.

The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig, which is only a problem if one of them misses significant time with injury, but an injury to one of three is definitely a possibility and the rest of this position group consists of 2022 6th round pick Kyron Johnson, who has played 22 snaps in two seasons in the league, 2022 undrafted free agent Jeremiah Moon, who has played 99 snaps in two seasons in the league, 2023 undrafted free agent David Perales, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 undrafted free agent Jacoby Windman. It’s likely at least one of those aforementioned players will have to play at least somewhat of a role at some point this season. Still, with the talent at the top of this position group, this is still one of the best edge defender groups in the league.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Interior defender Cameron Heyward has been a fixture of this team for years, joining this team as a first round pick in 2011 and excelling in his prime. In a 9-year stretch from 2014-2022, Heyward totaled 71 sacks, 91 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 135 games, while playing at a high level against the run, averaging 53.7 snaps per game, and finishing above 80 on PFF seven times. However, Heyward fell to a 71.9 PFF grade with 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 2023, while playing 442 snaps in just 11 games due to injury. Now going into his age 35 season, Heyward’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily continue declining further. He has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, but that’s not a guarantee at this stage.

With Heyward missing time last season, this interior defender group was led in snaps played by Larry Ogunjobi, who played 766 snaps, but was mostly a snap eater, with just a 59.2 PFF grade. That’s been the case for Ogunjobi for years, as he’s averaged 746 snaps per season over the past six seasons, but has never finished with a season-long grade better than 61.7, while finishing below 60 in four seasons. Now going into his age 30 season, Ogunjobi is unlikely to improve and could possibly decline and be a liability.

With Heyward and Ogunjobi aging, the Steelers will hope to get more out of Keeanu Benton, who showed a lot of promise as a second round rookie in 2023. He only played 483 snaps and had just 1 sack, but he added 7 hits and a 8.1% pressure rate and finished the season with an overall grade of 74.8 on PFF. Now going into his second season in the league, he could be ready for a bigger role, but he still is a projection to that larger role and won’t necessarily be as efficient. He has a good chance to at least be a solid starter, but he’s still relatively raw and inexperienced.

The Steelers also have a bunch of depth options behind their top-3 at the interior defender position. Montravius Adams (416 snaps), Armon Watts (273 snaps), DeMarvin Leal (206 snaps), and Isaiahh Loudermilk (180 snaps) all played roles as reserves last season and the only one of those four who wasn’t retained this off-season is Watts, who was essentially replaced by veteran free agent acquisition Dean Lowry. All four of those options, including Lowry, all finished below 60 on PFF last season though, so the Steelers will probably be hoping they don’t need to lean too heavily on any of them.

Lowry is the most experienced of the bunch, starting 84 of the 120 games he’s played in eight seasons in the league, while averaging 33.2 snaps per game, and he finished above 60 on PFF in five of his first six seasons in the league, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 59.3 and 47.4 on snap counts of 482 and 237 over the past two seasons and, now going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to improve significantly and will probably be a liability, even in a smaller role. Adams is also a veteran, selected in the 3rd round in 2017, but he’s never really lived up to his draft slot, playing just 225 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seven seasons, including a 58.3 PFF grade last season. He is likely to be similarly underwhelming in 2024.

Loudermilk and Leal, on the other hand, are more recent draft picks, but they also are underwhelming options. Loudermilk has finished with PFF grades of 47.5, 42.2, and 55.9 on a total of just 584 snaps since going in the 5th round in 2021, while Leal has finished with PFF grades of 46.0 and 47.5 on a total of just 381 snaps since going in the 3rd round in 2022. Leal could still have some untapped upside, only going into his age 23 season, but he needs to take a big step forward to even be a decent rotational option, while Loudermilk is already heading into his age 27 season and wasn’t a high draft pick, so he might not have any untapped upside. This isn’t a bad position group overall, but they have some aging starters and some depth concerns.

Grade: B

Linebackers

One reason this team could potentially be better than a year ago is the addition of Patrick Queen at the linebacker position, after the Steelers stole him away from division rival Baltimore to a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal. A first round pick in 2020, Queen took a couple years to develop, struggling in his first two seasons in the league, but he has broken out with PFF grades of 70.0 and 73.1 on snap counts of 1,024 and 1,120 over the past two seasons, so he seems to have permanently turned a corner as an above average every down player and, still only in his age 25 season, he could have further untapped upside. He will continue in an every down role in Pittsburgh and figures to provide a big boost to this linebacking corps.

The other linebacker job will go to one of two veteran holdovers, Cole Holcomb or Elandon Roberts. Holcomb is better suited for an every down role than Roberts, playing in 58.8 snaps per game over the past four seasons, while mostly being at least decent, with PFF grades of 72.0, 56.7, 66.6, and 65.5, but he’s also missed 25 games with injury over that stretch. He’s probably the favorite for the starting job opposite Queen, but could easily miss more time with injury this season. Roberts, meanwhile, is mostly a run stopping specialist, as his 72.5 PFF grade across 581 snaps in 16 games last season was the first season of his career in which he played more than 500 snaps in a season and had a PFF grade over 60.

Roberts is now going into his age 30 season and isn’t suited for more than a situational role, but he’s at least good depth to have in case Holcomb gets hurt again. The Steelers also used a third round pick on Payton Wilson to give them more depth at the position and he’d likely work in tandem with Roberts as a passing down specialist if Holcomb or Queen miss time. They’re much better depth than last season, when Mykal Walker (293 snaps), Myles Jack (131 snaps), Kwon Alexander (362 snaps), and Mark Robinson (150 snaps) all played roles with Holcomb out and all finished below 60 on PFF. Overall, this is a much deeper linebacking corps than a year ago and the addition of Patrick Queen gives them a high level talent they didn’t have a year ago either.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Steelers also added safety DeShon Elliott to their defense this off-season. A 6th round pick in 2018, Elliott has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps last season, and he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he should continue at least being a solid starter. The one concern with Elliott is durability, as he’s missed 42 games in his career due to injury, though just five of those have come in the past two seasons.

However, it shouldn’t be hard for Elliott to be better or more available than the player he is replacing, Keanu Neal, who had a 59.6 PFF grade across 430 snaps in 9 games last season and who is no longer with the team. Elliott should also be an upgrade over Damontae Kazee, who started in Neal’s absence and had a 60.4 PFF grade. Kazee played 771 snaps in total last season, not only filling in for Neal when he was injured, but also filling in for Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was limited to 549 snaps in 10 games by injuries of his own.

Fitzpatrick should be healthier this season which, along with the addition of Elliott, should also be a boost for this defense. Fitzpatrick had a 71.3 PFF grade last season, but that was actually a relatively down year for him, as he had PFF grades of 79.8, 79.5, and 82.4 respectively in 2019, 2020, and 2022. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Fitzpatrick should be healthier and probably also better in 2024. At his best, he’s one of the best safeties in the league. Elliott and Fitzpatrick should be an above average safety duo.

Kazee remains as the #3 safety, where he’s a better fit. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including two seasons above 70, and he’s started 62 of the 92 games he’s played, while averaging 45.0 snaps per game, but he’s heading into his age 31 season and is better off as an above average depth option at this stage of his career. Kazee also has the versatility to play slot cornerback, where he might need to, given the Steelers’ lack of depth at the cornerback position.

The Steelers bring back their top cornerback from last season, Joey Porter, who had a 65.2 PFF grade across 802 snaps last season and could take a step forward in 2024, as 2023 2nd round pick with a high upside. The Steelers also added Donte Jackson and Cameron Sutton this off-season, to replace departures Patrick Peterson (60.5 PFF grade across 1,096 snaps), Levi Wallace (57.8 PFF grade across 726 snaps), and Chandon Sullivan (61.2 PFF grade across 422 snaps), but Sutton is expected to be suspended for eight games for an off-the-field incident and the Steelers’ cornerback depth is very suspect behind Porter, Jackson, and Sutton.

Donte Jackson has started 76 of the 80 games he’s played in six seasons in the league, but he’s had some durability issues, missing 19 games total and he’s been a bit inconsistent, finishing above 60 on PFF four times, with a career best 70.4 in 2020, but also finishing below 60 twice. Sutton, meanwhile, has started 48 of the 49 games he’s played over the past three seasons, receiving PFF grades of 61.9 and 71.6 in 2021 and 2022, before falling to a 56.0 PFF grade in 2023. Both are decent, but unspectacular options, though obviously Sutton suspension is a big concern.

When Sutton or any of the Steelers’ other cornerbacks are out, their options other than moving Kazee to the slot are 2023 5th round pick Darius Rush, who played just 39 snaps as a rookie, 2023 7th round pick Cory Trice, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, 2020 4th round pick Josiah Scott, who has played just 577 snaps in four seasons in the league, 6th round rookie Ryan Watts, and veteran Anthony Averett, who played 807 snaps in 2021, but struggled with a 56.3 PFF grade and has otherwise played just 927 snaps in five seasons in the league, with none of those coming last season, when he spent the season on practice squads. This is a pretty good secondary, especially at safety, but they have some depth concerns at cornerback.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Steelers made the post-season at 10-7 last season, but their 9-2 record in one-score games is unsustainable, so they will need to be significantly better this season to make it back to the post-season. There are reasons to believe they will be improved, such as their retooled quarterback room and the addition of off-ball linebacker Patrick Queen on defense, but they probably will not be improved enough to make the post-season in an AFC that is even more loaded than a year ago.

Update: After evaluating every team and looking at schedules, the Steelers have one of the toughest schedules in the league this season, making it an uphill battle for them to even come close to making the post-season.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 17, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Quarterback

The Ravens won the #1 seed in the loaded AFC a year ago and finished #1 in DVOA, but they fell short in the post-season and could have an uphill battle to get back to those heights in 2024. Not only is the AFC even more loaded this season, with the Bengals and Jets set to get healthier seasons from Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers, but the Ravens lost several key players on both sides of the ball this season, with three of their top-10 in snaps played on offense and three of their top-10 in snaps played on defense not being retained this off-season and most of them not being adequately replaced.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson might not be as good either. He’s still likely to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league regardless, but he was MVP last season, which is hard to do two seasons in a row. Jackson has won an MVP before, back in 2019, and between his two MVP seasons, he has 66.7% completion, 7.93 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while adding 2,027 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground on 324 carries (6.26 YPC), which is incredible, but in his other three seasons as a starter from 2020-2022, he hasn’t been as good, with 63.7% completion, 7.27 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while adding 2,536 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground on 404 carries (6.27 YPC), and finishing all three seasons injured. If he’s closer to his 2020-2022 form than 2019 or 2023, it will hurt the Ravens’ offense, especially if he ends up missing time with injury again.

The Ravens also don’t have a good backup behind him. Tyler Huntley has been mediocre in Jackson’s absence in his career, with 64.6% completion, 5.72 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while adding 509 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground on 115 carries (4.43 YPC) in 9 career starts, but he wasn’t even retained this off-season, leaving the Ravens backup job either to Josh Johnson, who has thrown just 355 passes in 16 seasons in the league and who is now in his age 38 season, or to 6th round rookie Devin Leary, both of whom are among the worst backup quarterback options in the league and massive drop offs from Jackson. With the AFC getting tougher and the Ravens’ roster around him getting worse, the Ravens will need Lamar Jackson to stay healthy and play close to an MVP caliber level for the Ravens to continue being contenders.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The unit that lost the most this off-season is the offensive line, where three of five starters from a year ago are now gone. Left guard John Simpson was mediocre with a 56.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, but right guard Kevin Zeitler had a 69.3 PFF grade in 15 starts and right tackle Morgan Moses had a 77.6 PFF grade in 14 starts and the Ravens didn’t do nearly enough to replace them. The right tackle job will likely either go to second round rookie Roger Rosengarten, who could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, 2022 4th round pick Daniel Faalele, who has been mediocre on 355 snaps in two seasons in the league, or Patrick Mekari, who has finished above 65 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (36 starts total), but who has never been a season-long starter and could struggle to adjust to a new role.

Mekari’s best asset is his versatility and he could also be an option at guard, where the other competitors for the two vacant jobs are 2023 7th round pick Andrew Voorhees, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, 2021 3rd round pick Ben Cleveland, who has played 621 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league, and veteran free agent addition Josh Jones, who has mostly been mediocre in 24 starts in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020, while seeing action at both guard and tackle. Whoever wins the starting right tackle job and the starting jobs at guard, the Ravens could have multiple positions of weakness on the offensive line this season.

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum are the returning starters from a year ago. Both are former first round picks, Stanley selected 6th overall in 2016 and Linderbaum selected 25th overall in 2022. Stanley started his career with five straight seasons over 70 on PFF, including a career best 88.5 PFF grade in 2019, but he first started getting injured in 2020, has missed 36 games in four seasons since, and has been a shell of himself over the past three seasons as a starter. Stanley had his healthiest season since 2019 last season, making 13 starts, but he had just a 64.9 PFF grade and, now four years removed from his last prime season and going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely over. He’s also likely to miss more time with injury at some point this season.

Linderbaum, meanwhile, is the highlight of this offensive line, receiving PFF grades of 74.7 and 78.3 in 32 total starts in his first two seasons in the league and still going into his age 24 season, meaning his best seasons may still be ahead of him. He somewhat elevates an offensive line that is otherwise pretty mediocre, after having lost three starters from a year ago without adequately replacing them. If this offense takes a big step back in 2024, the decline of this group will likely be the reason why.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Ravens also lost lead back Gus Edwards from a year ago, after he rushed for 810 yards and 13 touchdowns on 198 carries (4.09 YPC), but he won’t be missed because the Ravens upgraded on him by signing veteran Derrick Henry to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal. Henry is heading into his age 30 season with 2,185 career touches, so his best days are probably behind him and he could continue declining further in 2024, but he still had 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.17 YPC) on an overall mediocre Tennessee offense a year ago and, now on a much better offense in Baltimore, he could thrive, even at less than his best.

This is a run heavy offense, ranking 1st in the NFL with 541 carries last season, but I wouldn’t expect Henry to have the same workload he’s used to, as Jackson takes off and runs with the ball frequently himself and the Ravens also have Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell behind Henry on the depth chart to take some of the load off Henry, which could benefit him as he ages. Mitchell has by far the most potential of the two, averaging 8.42 YPC on 47 carries and 1.82 yards per route run as an undrafted rookie in 2023. However, the 5-8 190 pounder is too small to be anything more than a change of pace back, he played in a very limited role in 2023, and he could miss the start of the season and/or not be at 100%, as he works back from a significant leg injury suffered late last season.

Hill, meanwhile, has a 4.60 YPC average in his career, but only 203 carries in five seasons in the league. He was the Ravens’ primary passing down back last season though and will likely remain in that role, as Henry has never been much of a pass catcher, with 1.19 yards per route run and 155 catches in 119 games in 8 seasons in Tennessee. Hill has only averaged 0.72 yards per route run in his career and is an underwhelming passing down option, but Lamar Jackson doesn’t target his running backs in the passing game much anyway, preferring to take off and run when he gets in trouble rather than checking down, so a lack of a good passing down option out of the backfield is not a big deal. Led by the arrival of Derrick Henry, this is an improved backfield, even if Henry probably isn’t what he once was.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Ravens also lost wide receiver Odell Beckham this off-season. Beckham didn’t have a huge impact, playing 465 snaps in 14 games and totaling a 35/565/3 slash line, but he was very efficient, with 1.92 yards per route run and 8.83 yards per target, both best among Ravens wide receivers a year ago, and the Ravens did nothing to replace him. Instead, Rashod Bateman (609 snaps) and Nelson Agholor (581 snaps) will likely play bigger roles, with Zay Flowers (904 snaps) continuing as the #1 receiver.

Flowers led the team with 108 targets and a 77/858/5 slash line, while averaging 1.64 yards per route run. He was also only a rookie, selected 23rd overall, and has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in 2024, which would potentially help the Ravens replace Odell Beckham, though that’s not a guarantee. Bateman is also a former first round pick, selected 27th overall in 2021, but his career hasn’t gone well, as he’s averaged 1.35 yards per route run, while missing 16 games in three seasons in the league. He’s only going into his age 25 season so he could still have untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled in an expanded role in 2024.

Agholor, meanwhile, averages just a 42/514/4 slash line per season and a 1.18 yards per route run average in 135 games in nine seasons in the league and now heads into his age 31 season, so he’s a very underwhelming option. The Ravens’ only other options though are Deonte Harty, an undersized (5-6 170) return man and gadget player with 79 catches in career 56 games, Tylan Wallace, a 2021 4th round pick with 7 career catches and 0.53 yards per route run, and 4th round rookie Devontez Walker, who is likely to raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie.

Fortunately, the Ravens do get tight end Mark Andrews back from injury after he was limited to 467 snaps in 10 games last season, which should offset their depth issues at wide receiver somewhat. Despite his position, Andrews is almost like a #1 receiver, with a 83/1031/9 slash line per 17 games over the past five seasons, as well as 2.17 yards per route run. In total, he has received PFF grades above 80 in five straight seasons, with two seasons over 90. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Andrews should remain one of the best tight ends in the league in 2024.

The Ravens also have a good backup in Isaiah Likely, a 2022 4th round pick with 1.42 yards per route run in his career who got an extended role in Andrews’ absence last season, leading to a 30/411/5 slash line and a 1.45 yards per route run average. Still only in his age 24 season, Likely could have further untapped upside. He won’t see a lot of targets behind Mark Andrews, but the Ravens could use two tight end sets frequently to mask their lack of depth at wide receiver somewhat, so Likely is definitely an asset to this offense. The Ravens also have another 2022 4th round pick at tight end, Charlie Kolar, a blocking specialist who played 230 snaps last season and caught just 7 passes. This is a pretty top heavy receiving corps led by Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, but those two make it a decent group overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Ravens also lost several key players on defense this off-season, without really replacing any of them. One of those players was edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who signed a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal in Carolina this off-season, after having a 85.7 PFF grade across 653 snaps in 2023, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate. The only thing the Ravens did to replace Clowney was using a third round pick on Adisa Isaac. Isaac figures to have an immediate role, even if he could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, and the Ravens also will probably give bigger roles to a trio of young players, Odafe Oweh (436 snaps), Tavius Robinson (335 snaps), and David Ojabo (83 snaps).

Oweh was a first round pick in 2021 and excelled in limited action last season with a 80.7 PFF grade and 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, but he has been inconsistent in his career, especially in bigger roles, which he will have this season. As a rookie in 2021, he had a 67.9 PFF grade and a 11.6% pressure rate and in 2022 he had a 56.8 PFF grade and a 9.9% pressure rate, on snap counts of 615 and 665 respectively. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at a high level in a bigger role in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Ojabo, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but injuries have limited him to just 104 snaps in two seasons in the league. He was injured when the Ravens drafted him and, if not for his injury, he could have been a top-15 pick, but, even though he was injured when he was drafted, the Ravens have to be disappointed by how little they’ve gotten out of him thus far. He’s only going into his age 24 season and, if he’s past his injuries, he could have a breakout year in 2024, but he’s a complete unknown and could miss more time with injury, so he’s far from a guarantee to have that breakout year. Tavius Robinson, meanwhile, was just a 4th round pick in 2023 and had an underwhelming 55.3 PFF grade and a 5.6% pressure rate as a rookie last season. It’s possible he could be better in his second season in the league in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee.

The Ravens also still have veteran Kyle Van Noy, who was decent with a 72.8 PFF grade on 485 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 9 sacks, 2 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. Van Noy has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, with three seasons over 70, but he’s now going into his age 34 season and could easily decline in a significant way in 2024. Even if he doesn’t decline significantly, Van Noy is probably only a part-time player at this stage of his career, like he was last season, and is unlikely to see a big jump in snap count even with Clowney no longer on the team. With Clowney gone and Van Noy getting up there in age, the Ravens badly need multiple of their young edge defenders to step up, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Fortunately, the Ravens did keep Justin Madubuike, who had a 75.1 PFF grade across 757 snaps last season, leading this team in sacks with 13, despite playing on the interior, while adding 18 hits and a 12.5% pressure rate as well. The Ravens had to give him a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal that makes him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league to keep him and, at his best, he’s worth that contract, but he’s also a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season.

Madubuike did have a 72.1 PFF grade as a third round rookie in 2020, but only on 259 snaps and he followed that up with PFF grades of 56.6 and 63.6 on snap counts of 482 and 655 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Across those first three seasons in the league, his pressure rate was just 6.6%. Madubuike is only in his age 27 season and could have permanently turned a corner and will remain the caliber of player he was a year ago, but he also could regress a little bit, which would hurt a defense that is already missing several key players from a year ago.

The rest of this interior defender group remains the same as a year ago, when Michael Pierce played 640 snaps, Travis Jones played 452 snaps, Broderick Washington played 410 snaps, and Brent Urban played 280 snaps. Pierce was the best of the bunch with a 77.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 1 sack, 3 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Pierce has always played well when healthy in his career, never finishing above 60 on PFF in eight seasons in the league, with six seasons above 70. However, durability has been a problem for the big 6-0 355 pounder, as he’s missed 43 total games in his career, while exceeding 500 snaps in a season just one other time aside from last season, and now he’s going into his age 32 season, so he could easily decline and/or miss significant time this season, both of which would hurt this defense.

Brent Urban is also an older player, going into his age 33 season, and he’s been mostly a reserve though his career, averaging just 224 snaps per season in 10 seasons in the league, but the Ravens don’t need him for more than that this season and, in very limited action a year ago, he had a decent 62.8 PFF grade. He could decline significantly in 2024, but he could also remain a decent deep reserve and, either way, he doesn’t play enough for it to have a significant impact on this defense.

Travis Jones and Broderick Washington, meanwhile, are relatively young. Washington has mostly been mediocre since being selected in the 3rd round in 2020, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons, including a 43.8 PFF grade last season, while averaging just 337 snaps per season. Jones, meanwhile, was a third round pick in 2022 and has shown promise thus far in his career, with PFF grades of 62.5 and 70.6 on snap counts of 322 and 452 respectively. In the likely case that Pierce declines or gets hurt, the Ravens will need more out of Travis Jones and he seems capable of giving that to them. Overall, this is a solid group with little that has changed from a year ago, except for Pierce getting older and Travis Jones likely stepping up to compensate.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Another key player the Ravens lost on defense this off-season was Patrick Queen, who had a 73.1 PFF grade on 1,120 snaps last season and then signed a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal with the rival Steelers this off-season. Without a replacement being added, the Ravens will likely turn to 2023 3rd round pick Trenton Simpson, who has the upside to be a starter, but who only played 46 snaps as a rookie last season. Even in a best case scenario, he figures to be a significant downgrade. If Simpson struggles, the only other option the Ravens have is Malik Harrison, who went in the 3rd round in 2020 and has shown flashes in his career, but has also only played 881 snaps in four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the Ravens do still have Roquan Smith, who was one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,066 snaps. Smith also had a 84.7 PFF grade in nine games in his first half season in Baltimore in 2022, after being acquired from the Bears mid-season. Smith was inconsistent in his four and a half seasons in Chicago, but he flashed talent and the 2018 8th overall pick always had upside, which he seems to have made good on, now with his second team. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a high level every down linebacker in 2024 and he’s unlikely to regress back to his Chicago form. He significantly elevates an otherwise underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Ravens also lost safety Geno Stone this off-season, after he had a 71.9 PFF grade on 950 snaps in 17 games last season. The Ravens had good safety depth with both Kyle Hamilton (84.7 PFF grade on 936 snaps in 15 games) and Marcus Williams (71.7 PFF grade on 636 snaps in 11 games) playing at high levels in significant roles last season, but the Ravens used that safety depth to mask their lack of depth at cornerback, something they’ll be unable to do this season, with Stone gone and the only replacement added being 7th round rookie Sanoussi Kane, who will compete with Ar’Darius Washington, a 2021 undrafted free agent with 145 career snaps, for the top reserve safety job.

The Ravens would be in trouble if either one missed significant time with injury, but Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams at least remain a high level safety duo. Hamilton looks on his way to being one of the best safeties in the league for years to come, being selected 14th overall in 2022, excelling in a part-time role as a rookie with a 82.3 PFF grade across 547 snaps, extending that into an every down role in 2023, and still only going into his age 23 season in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league.

Williams, meanwhile, has also been a consistently high level safety throughout his career, finishing above 70 in all seven seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, with three seasons above 80, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to decline in 2024. Durability has been a concern for him throughout his career though, as he’s only played in every game once, while missing 18 games total in seven seasons in the league, with 13 of those coming in the past two seasons. That’s especially a concern in 2024, given the Ravens’ lack of safety depth.

With the Ravens no longer having the safety depth needed to mask issues at cornerback, the Ravens used a first round pick in this year’s draft on Nate Wiggins, who figures to start at cornerback immediately, even as a rookie. He could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie, but has a good chance to at least be an adequate starter, with the upside for more. The Ravens did lose veteran cornerback Ronald Darby this off-season, who had a 69.5 PFF grade last season, but he only played 442 snaps and the Ravens are hoping they can make for Darby’s loss by getting a healthier season out of Marlon Humphrey, who was limited to 540 snaps in 10 games last season. Humphrey, Wiggins and Brandon Stephens will start in three cornerback sets for the Ravens.

Humphrey is also a former first round pick, selected 16th overall in 2017. In seven seasons in the league, he has finished above 60 on PFF in every season, with five seasons over 70, and, still only in his age 28 season, he should remain an above average starter in 2024. If he can be healthier than a year ago, that will be a big boost for the Ravens’ secondary and he’s likely to at least play more games than he did a year ago, but durability has been a concern for him for most of his career, as he’s exceeded 1,000 snaps in a season just once, while missing 15 games total in seven seasons in the league.

Brandon Stephens, meanwhile, was a third round pick in 2021, but struggled in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 53.0 and 52.5 on snap counts of 742 and 452, while splitting time between safety and cornerback, before breaking out with a 69.2 PFF grade in 16 starts as a full-time cornerback in 2023. Stephens is only a one-year wonder and could regress in 2024, but it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, still only in his age 27 season and seemingly more comfortable playing in one spot, rather than splitting time between cornerback and safety like he did earlier in his career.

The Ravens’ top reserve cornerbacks options are veteran Arthur Maulet, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, who has played just 78 snaps in two seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie TJ Tampa, with Maulet likely the heavy favorite for the #4 cornerback job. Maulet had a 70.3 PFF grade across 407 snaps last season, but he’s now going into his age 31 season and, even in his prime, he was a mediocre slot specialist who never saw significant action in a season, with 404 snaps per season over the past five seasons and three seasons below 60 on PFF in that stretch. The Ravens still have an above average secondary, especially if Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey are healthier than a year ago, but that’s not a guarantee, given their injury histories, and the Ravens will almost definitely miss free agent departure Geno Stone.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Ravens lost a lot this off-season, most notably a trio of defensive players and a trio of offensive linemen. They also might not get another MVP season from Lamar Jackson, who also has a history of injury problems that could become a concern again in 2024. They’re starting from a high base point, finishing last season 1st in DVOA, with the best record in the NFL, but the AFC is even more loaded than a year ago with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow set to be healthier than a year ago, so the Ravens aren’t guaranteed anything this season, not the division, not even a playoff appearance. They should be a playoff team, but they’ll have plenty of competition for the division and for the three wild card spots.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 17, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

The Bengals had a disappointing last place season in 2023, but the situation is a lot better than that sounds. For one, the Bengals finished last place in the toughest division in the NFL in the AFC North and they actually finished above .500 with a 9-8 record, including a 8-3 record outside of the division. That record outside of the division included a 3-2 record against playoff qualifiers, with victories over the Rams, 49ers, and Bills. The Bengals also did this despite having significant injuries at the quarterback position on offense, and a defense that ranked just 23rd in DVOA.

I will get into why their defense should be better later, but it’s not hard to see how they are likely to have better health at the quarterback position. Joe Burrow, normally one of the best quarterbacks in the league, struggled in the first four games of the season while playing through a calf injury, then went on an impressive 5-game stretch, during which the Bengals went 4-1, with wins against the 49ers and Bills, and then Burrow injured his wrist during their week 10 loss to the Ravens and missed the remainder of the season.

Despite really only having Burrow healthy for five games last season, the Bengals still ranked 11th in offensive DVOA. Part of that is because of the play of backup quarterback Jake Browning, who completed 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 7 starts, but, as well as Browning played, he was previously a career backup who never thrown a pass in his first four seasons in the league, after going undrafted in 2019, so Browning benefited significantly from the talent around him.

Burrow remains an injury concern, dealing with some ailment in three of four seasons in the league, with the exception being a 2021 campaign in which he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl, but as long as Burrow is healthy, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. During his Super Bowl season, Burrow completed 70.4% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He then followed that up with 68.3% completion, 7.38 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2022, despite missing most of the off-season due to appendix surgery. Then in his 5-game healthy stretch in 2023, Burrow completed 74.1% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, the upside is obvious for Burrow in 2024 if he can stay healthy, especially when you consider how well a career backup was able to play in his absence last season. Browning, meanwhile, remains as the top backup and, while he might not be as good this season as he was in a limited stretch last season, he’s still a good insurance policy to have and he should be capable of holding down the fort for a few games if needed in case of another Burrow injury. Overall, this is one of the most enviable quarterback rooms in the league, even if you take into account Burrow’s durability issues.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The best part of the Bengals’ solid offensive supporting cast is their receiving corps, led by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Despite the Bengals’ quarterback play not being as good as he’s used to, Ja’Marr Chase still had a 100/1216/7 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in 2023. This comes after the 2021 5th overall pick had a 81/1455/13 slash line and a 2.51 yards per route run average as a rookie and a 87/1046/9 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in his second season in the league in 2022. Still only in his age 24 season, Chase’s best years could still be ahead of him and he looks likely to be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him set new career highs in 2024.

Higgins, on the other hand, had a down year in 2023, missing 5 games with injury and totaling a 42/656/5 slash line with a 1.66 yards per route run average in 12 games. A 2020 2nd round pick, Higgins averaged a 72/1009/6 slash line per season with 2.00 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season though and, still only in his age 25 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024 if both he and Burrow stay healthy. Despite his down year in 2023, the Bengals still franchise tagged him at a price of 21.816 million this off-season, as he has too much upside when healthy to be allowed to leave for nothing.

Third receiver Tyler Boyd also had a down year, with a 67/667/2 slash line and a 1.15 yards per route run average, and with Boyd heading into his age 30 season, the Bengals let him leave as a free agent this off-season. Without a veteran being added to replace Boyd, the Bengals will likely give the #3 receiver job to either incumbent #4 receiver Trenton Irwin or to third round rookie Jermaine Burton. Irwin was mediocre with a 25/316/1 slash line and a 1.20 yards per route run average in limited action last season, both of which were career highs for the 2019 undrafted free agent, so he would likely struggle if he won the #3 receiver job. Burton, on the other hand, has more upside, but could struggle through growing pains as a rookie.

The Bengals also have a pair of second year wide receivers who could take a step forward this season, 2023 4th round pick Charlie Jones, who showed some promise on 44 snaps as a rookie with a 2.13 yards per route run average, and 2023 6th round Andrei Iosivas, who struggled on 266 snaps as a rookie with a 0.76 yards per route run average. Some of the Bengals’ third receiver options have upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if whoever wins the that third receiver job is underwhelming in 2024.

At tight end, the Bengals gave playing time to four tight ends last season, Drew Sample (496 snaps), Irv Smith (330 snaps), Tanner Hudson (276 snaps), and Mitchell Wilcox (229 snaps). Three of those tight ends struggled, with Sample posting a 22/163/2 slash line with a 0.86 yards per route run average, Smith posting a 18/115/1 slash line with a 0.51 yards per route run average, and Wilcox posting a 9/56/0 slash line with a 0.81 yards per route run average. Tanner Hudson, on the other hand, had a 39/352/1 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average and he earned more playing time down the stretch as a result, with a 35/304/1 slash line in the final 10 games of the season.

That’s a small sample size though and Hudson is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had caught just 15 passes in his career prior to last season and who is now going into his age 30 season, so there is a lot of reason to believe that Hudson is unlikely to translate that impressive play into a larger season-long role if given one in 2024. The Bengals also brought in competition for Hudson’s job as the top pass catching tight end, signing veteran Mike Gesicki in free agency and using a 4th round pick on Erick All.

All is probably too raw to have a significant role as a rookie, but Gesicki has a good chance to win the top pass catching tight end job just based on experience. Gesicki had slash lines of 53/703/6 with 1.60 yards per route run and 73/780/2 with 1.45 yards per route run in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he fell to 32/362/5 with 1.02 yards per route run in 2022 and 29/243/2 with 0.72 yards per route run in 2023. That being said, Gesicki was on a Miami offense that didn’t throw much to tight ends in 2022, while last season he spent on a terrible New England offense, so Gesicki, who is only in his age 29 season, could have some bounce back potential in 2024, now on a much better offense. Tanner Hudson will play a role, but I would guess that Gesicki will be the top pass catching tight end.

The Bengals also brought back veteran Drew Sample as a blocking tight end. He has just 0.81 yards per route run in his career and won’t play a big role in the passing game this season behind Gesicki and Hudson, but Sample is an above average run blocker and will be useful to the Bengals when they run the ball out of two tight end sets. Led by Chase and Higgins, one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, the Bengals have an impressive receiving corps, though there is some concern about who the complementary options behind Chase and Higgins are and how well they’ll perform.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Bengals’ running game was underwhelming last season, ranking 22nd in the NFL with 3.99 yards per carry. Feature back Joe Mixon had a solid 49.4% carry success rate, but only had 16.2% of his yardage on 8 carries of 15+ yards and, as a result, averaged just 4.02 yards per carry on 257 carries. With Mixon going into his age 28 season and owed 6.1 million in 2024, the Bengals traded him to the Texans for a late round pick this off-season and used the money they saved to give a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to Zack Moss, who also had a solid 49.2% carry success rate last season, but additionally had 25.5% of his carries on 7 carries of 15+ yards.

Moss isn’t as experienced as Mixon, as he has averaged just 121 carries per season in four seasons in the league, with the 183 he had last season being a career high, but he has a solid 4.29 YPC and a solid 49.2% carry success rate in his career and should at least be a good lead back, even if he doesn’t play the feature back role that Joe Mixon did. Chase Brown, a 2023 5th round pick, was the #2 back last season and will remain in that role this season. He only had 44 carries behind Mixon, but that will likely increase, perhaps significantly, in 2024 with Mixon gone. Brown had a decent 4.07 YPC last season and could be ready for a bigger role, now in his second season in the league.

Brown also figures to take on a bigger passing game role, as that is where Mixon will be missed the most, averaging 1.21 yards per route run in his career, as opposed to just 0.77 for Moss. Brown actually had a 4.46 yards per route run average as a rookie and, even though that came in a very limited sample size, he also had 27 catches in his final collegiate season and has the upside to be a good pass catching option out of the backfield at the professional level. Expect Moss to be the lead back with Brown operating as a change of pace back and a passing down complement.

Depth is a concern at the running back position behind Moss and Brown. Trayveon Williams was a 2019 6th round pick, but has just 77 touches in five seasons in the league, while Chris Evans is a 2021 6th round pick with 38 touches in three seasons in the league. Both would likely be overstretched in a big role in the absence of either Moss or Brown for an extended period of time. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield, but the top duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown could be effective, as long as Brown is able to spell Moss frequently enough as a runner and contribute as the primary passing down back.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Bengals’ offensive line was also underwhelming last season. Two of their five starters finished below 60 on PFF, left guard Cordell Volson, who had a 58.3 PFF grade, and right tackle Jonah Williams, who had a 58.5 PFF grade. Williams was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bengals should get better play out of his replacement Trent Brown, who they signed to a 1-year, 4.75 million dollar deal. Brown is going into his age 31 season and has had durability issues throughout his career, especially over the past five seasons, when he has missed 30 games, but he’s also surpassed 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70.

Brown’s 80.2 PFF grade in 2023 was actually a career high, despite being on the wrong side of 30. It only came in 8 starts and he’s highly unlikely to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, given his age, but he still has a good chance to be at least a solid starter, which would make him an obvious upgrade on Jonah Williams. Brown will probably miss at least some time with injury at some point this season, only playing making every start in a season twice in his career, but the Bengals prepared for that by using their first round pick on Amarius Mims, who enters the league very raw, but is still overqualified to be a swing tackle and has a huge upside long-term. He may have some rookie year growing pains, but he has a good chance to fill in adequately for a few games if needed.

The Bengals’ other starter who struggled last season, Cordell Volson, will likely remain in that role. The 2022 4th round pick has struggled through two seasons in the league, making 33 starts, but finishing with PFF grades in the 50s in both seasons. However, the Bengals lack another good option, with their best alternative likely being Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who entered the league with a lot of potential, but struggled mightily with a 56.3 PFF grade in 6 starts as a rookie and then just 16 snaps in the two seasons since.

Orlando Brown remains the starter at left tackle and he has a good chance to have a better season in 2024 than he did in 2023. Brown wasn’t bad last season, but his 66.1 PFF grade was the lowest of his 6-year career and he had previously finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons. With 92 starts in six seasons in the league, Brown is a very experienced option who is unlikely to be beginning a permanent decline, still only in his age 28 season, so he has a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2024.

Alex Cappa and Ted Karras remain at right guard and center respectively. Cappa is a solid starter who is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to continue playing the way he has for the past four seasons, when he has made all 66 starts, while receiving PFF grades of 69.0, 73.4, 67.6, and 64.9. Karras, on the other hand, is now in his age 31 season and could start to decline.

Karras has PFF grades of 64.5, 65.4, 72.2, 62.6, and 67.4 over the past five seasons, while making 77 starts, but he doesn’t have a huge margin for error if he begins to decline, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up being somewhat of a liability in 2024. He could remain a solid starter, but his age is a concern. He’ll be backed up by 2021 5th round pick Trey Hill, who has struggled across 217 snaps in three seasons in the league, so Karras should remain the starter no matter what. Overall, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but they’re still unlikely to be much more than a middling group.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Bengals’ defense was below average last season, but they did have some standout players. Probably their best player was edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who had a 82.3 PFF grade across 742 snaps, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 17.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate. That’s not out of character for Hendrickson, who has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, with his career best year coming in 2022 when he had a 85.0 PFF grade.

Overall, Hendrickson has 53 sacks, 58 hits, and a 15.8% pressure rate in 63 games over those four seasons, ranking 3rd in the NFL in sacks over that stretch, only behind Defensive Player of the Year winners TJ Watt and Myles Garrett. Hendrickson is now going into his age 30 season and there’s some reason to be concerned that he’ll decline, but, even if he does, he’s starting from a very high base point and should remain a big asset for this defense in 2024.

The rest of this position group was underwhelming a year ago, but there is some reason for optimism this year. Sam Hubbard received a 61.9 PFF grade across 713 snaps last season, but he has been better in the past, as last season was a career worst season-long grade for the 6-year veteran. Hubbard has never been better than a 72.4 PFF grade for a season and he’s a better run stopper than pass rusher, with 36.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 90 career games, but the Bengals do have 2023 1st round pick Myles Murphy waiting in the wings for a bigger role, which will allow Hubbard to focus on early down plays and keep him fresher, which should help him have a bounce back season.

Murphy didn’t do much as a rookie, with a 56.2 PFF grade across 304 snaps and a 9.1% pressure rate, but he has a high upside and could easily take a big step forward in his second season of the league. Murphy taking a step forward and Hubbard bouncing back is part of the reason the Bengals could be better defensively. The Bengals also have Cam Sample and Joseph Ossai, who played small roles last season, seeing 375 snaps and 177 snaps respectively, and both will likely see similar roles this season.

Sample and Ossai were drafted in the 4th and 3rd round respectively in 2021. Sample struggled in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.0 on snap counts of 310 and 411 respectively, while totaling a 7.2% pressure rate, but he took a step forward with a 61.6 PFF grade and a 10.6% pressure rate in 2023. Ossai, meanwhile, missed his entire rookie season, struggled with a 55.3 PFF grade in 2022, but seemingly took a step forward with a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, albiet in very limited action.

Both Sample and Ossai are still young, in their age 25 and age 24 seasons, and they have a good chance to continue being at least decent in small roles, but both could struggle if forced into bigger roles by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This is the same group of edge defenders as a year ago, but they could be better if Myles Murphy takes a step forward in his second season in the league and if Sam Hubbard bounces back, likely in a smaller role with Murphy likely to take a step forward.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Bengals’ defense will miss free agent departure DJ Reader, who was their top interior defender a year ago, with a 82.2 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Bengals replaced him with veteran Sheldon Rankins on a 2-year, 24.5 million dollar deal. Rankins is not nearly as good as Reader as a run stopper, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in three of the past four seasons, but he could be an upgrade as a pass rusher, with 29.5 sacks, 38 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 109 career games, including 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 15 games last season. Rankins is now heading into his age 30 season and could start declining, but he has a good chance to at least remain an above average interior pass rusher for another season.

BJ Hill remains as the other starter. He wasn’t as good as Reader, but he still had a solid 67.7 PFF grade, with decent play both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, totaling 4.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate, his 6th season over 60 on PFF in as many seasons in the league, with three seasons over 70. In total, he has 20.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 97 career games. Hill was a rotational player early in his career, but has seen snap counts of 815 and 776 over the past two seasons. Still only in his age 28 season, he should remain a solid starter on a high snap count again in 2024.

The Bengals also used second and third round picks on the interior defender position this off-season, taking Kris Jenkins first and then McKinnley Jackson later. Both will compete for top reserve roles with Zachary Carter, who struggled as the top reserve last season, with a 51.2 PFF grade across 500 snaps. Carter was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but he was even worse as a rookie, with a 32.1 PFF grade across 395 snaps. It’s possible he takes another step forward in year three in 2024, especially if takes on a smaller role that he is more suited for. Josh Tupou had a 52.1 PFF grade across 287 snaps last season as the #4 interior defender, so better depth was needed and the Bengals got that with a pair of promising rookies. This is a decent, but unspectacular position group overall.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Bengals’ linebacking corps remains the same as a year ago, which is not a bad thing because Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt were decent as every down linebackers with PFF grades of 62.6 and 63.3 on snap counts of 1,068 and 975. Akeem Davis-Gaither also returns as the top reserve, although he only played 98 snaps last season and has played just 847 snaps in four seasons in the league, so he would be a projection to a larger role if forced into one by an injury to Wilson or Pratt.

Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2020. He struggled in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 on snap counts of 343 and 707, before taking a big step forward with a 72.7 PFF grade across 954 snaps in 2022. He wasn’t as good in 2023, but he seems to have at least established himself as a capable starting linebacker, with the upside for more if he can regain his 2022 form. Pratt, meanwhile, is a similar story, although his year-to-year swings have been even bigger, as the 2019 3rd round pick had PFF grades of 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 across snap counts of 437, 686, and 692 in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 80.6 PFF grade across 722 snaps in 2022 and then falling back to earth a little in 2023. He should at least remain a capable starter in 2024, with the upside for more. The Bengals are in decent shape at linebacker, especially if one of their two starters can find their 2022 form.

Grade: B

Secondary

The position group that should be most improved from a year ago and the biggest reason this defense should be better this year is the safety position. Nick Scott and Dax Hill started the season as starters last season, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 44.0 and 50.9. Scott was so bad he got benched for third round rookie Jordan Battle, who was a revelation in the second half of the season, with a 82.5 PFF grade across 524 snaps. That’s a small sample size, but Battle has a big upside and might not even need to start, with the Bengals signing Geno Stone and Vonn Bell to contracts worth 14 million over 2 years and 1.21 million over 1 year to replace Scott and also still retaining Dax Hill, who was a first round pick in 2022 and could be better in his third season in the league in 2024.

Stone should be locked into a starting job, after posting a 71.9 PFF grade across 950 snaps in 2023. Last season was Stone’s first as a starter and he was only a 7th round pick in 2020, but he also had a 71.4 PFF grade across 450 snaps in 2022, so his above average season as a starter in 2023 didn’t come out of nowhere. He’s still relatively unproven, but he’s also only going into his age 25 and could have further untapped upside. He seems likely to be the Bengals’ top safety. The other safety job will go to Bell, Battle, or Hill with a possibility of multiple of them playing significant roles this season. Battle and Hill both have upside, but Battle is still very inexperienced, while Hill was underwhelming in his only season as a starter thus far.

Bell has plenty of experience, starting 106 of 122 games played in eight seasons in the league, and he’s mostly been a capable starter, with PFF grades over 60 in seven straight seasons, starting in his second season in the league in 2017. He’s now going into his age 30 season and had to settle for the veteran’s minimum this season, but he’s a versatile player who could play linebacker or slot cornerback, so I would expect him to at least have some role in sub packages. The Bengals have quickly turned a big position of weakness at safety into a strength, with four capable starting options, two of which have significant upsides, and a top safety in Geno Stone who looks likely to be an above average starter.

At cornerback, the Bengals let veteran Chidobe Awuzie leave as a free agent this off-season. Awuzie only had a 62.6 PFF grade across 722 snaps, but he wasn’t bad and losing him without replacing him leaves the Bengals pretty thin at cornerback. Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner were second round picks in 2022 and 2023 respectively and both are expected to take on bigger roles in Awuzie’s absence, now as the favorites to start at 17 games outside at cornerback, after being limited to 653 snaps and 827 snaps respectively in 2023.

Taylor-Britt wasn’t bad last season, with a 64.5 PFF grade, a step forward from his rookie season when he had a 56.1 PFF grade across 590 snaps, but Taylor was a rookie last season and looked like it, with a 51.5 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two and Taylor-Britt could take a step forward as well, but that’s not a guarantee and, if Turner struggles or if Turner or Taylor-Britt get hurt, the only other options the Bengals have at outside cornerback are 5th round pick Josh Newton, 2023 7th round pick DJ Ivey, who played just 21 snaps as a rookie, or 2018 undrafted free agent Jalen Davis, a special teamer who had played just 281 defensive snaps in six seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the Bengals still have slot cornerback Mike Hilton, even if he isn’t a realistic candidate to see action outside. Hilton is very undersized at 5-9 184, but excels on the slot, with PFF grades above 60 on PFF across an average of 670 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league, with four seasons above 70, including three straight from 2021-2023. Hilton is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but, even if he does, he should remain at least a solid slot specialist. The Bengals are much better at safety than they were a year ago and should still get good play on the slot, but outside cornerback looks like it could be a position of weakness unless multiple young players step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bengals went 9-8 last season, despite only having star quarterback Joe Burrow fully healthy and at his best for five games, despite playing in the toughest division in football, and despite having a below average defense. This season, Joe Burrow should be healthier for much more of the season, the division is still tough, but maybe not as tough as a year ago, and their defense should be slightly better if only by default. Put all of that together and the Bengals not only look like a safe bet to be a playoff team, but also a potential candidate to go from worst to first and win the AFC North. I would consider them on the short list of Super Bowl contenders as well, especially if they can win the division and secure at least one home playoff game.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC North

Cleveland Browns 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 17, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Quarterback

Since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns have started 38 different quarterbacks, by far the most in the league over that time period. Baker Mayfield led them to a playoff victory in 2020, but he struggled in 2021 and got sent away the following off-season for a late round draft pick, with the Browns opting to try to shoot higher at the position by sending away three first round picks for Deshaun Watson. Watson was the 12th overall pick in 2017 and started his career by completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 53 starts across his first four seasons in the league, while adding 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 307 carries. He was especially good in the final year of that stretch in 2020, completing 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while averaging 4.93 YPC and rushing for 3 touchdowns on 90 carries.

However, off-the-field issues kept him out all of 2021 and he was set to miss a big chunk of the 2022 season as well, so it was a surprise how much the Browns were still willing to give up for him, even before you consider the moral and PR issues of acquiring someone like Watson. Watson ended up missing the first 11 games of 2022, but he also wasn’t his usual self in the 6 games he did play, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with 4.86 YPC and a touchdown on 36 carries. That underwhelming performance continued into 2023, in a season in which he was also limited to just 6 games, this time by injury. In those 6 games, Watson completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 5.46 YPC and a touchdown on 26 carries.

The worst part of Watson’s struggles thus far with the Browns is they have legitimately been a quarterback away from being contenders, especially in 2023. Despite his struggles, Watson is 8-4 as the Browns starting quarterback, including 5-1 in 2023. On top of that, one of the quarterbacks who the Browns used in Watson’s absence, veteran Joe Flacco, was 4-1, despite being signed off the couch mid-season and completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, good for a middling QB rating of 90.2.

The Browns had the league’s second best defense in terms of DVOA last season and they have supporting talent on offense, so they don’t even need elite quarterback play to be contenders. That should remain the case in 2024, when they bring back 20 of the 22 players who saw at least 500 snaps on offense or defense, with the two exceptions not being key players. The Browns should also be healthier and not just at quarterback, after having the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2023. Flacco is no longer with the team, but if Watson can stay healthy and at least somewhat bounce back to his prime form, still only in his age 29 season, the Browns should at least be playoff qualifiers, even in the loaded AFC.

If Watson misses more time, the job would go to Jameis Winston, a veteran free agent signing from this off-season. Winston was the #1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 7.67 YPA, 141 touchdowns, and 99 interceptions in 80 career starts, but only 10 of those starts have come in the past four seasons and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so he’s a backup at this stage of his career.

Winston is not a bad backup though and, if he needed to start for a few games, the Browns’ supporting cast is good enough that they can win some games even with their backup quarterback under center, similar to how they won with Flacco a year ago. The Browns’ quarterback room has some concerns at the top with Watson coming off of a major injury and now being almost four years removed from his last prime season, but he does come with some upside if he can consistently stay on the field more than he has the past three seasons.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Browns’ most injury plagued position groups last season was the offensive tackle position. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin began last season as the starters on the left and right side respectively, but Conklin lasted just 22 snaps before going down for the season with a knee injury, while Wills struggled with a 54.0 PFF grade in 8 starts before going down with his own season ending injury. Dawand Jones, a 2023 4th round rookie who started the season as the swing tackle, had a pretty decent season with a 64.7 PFF grade in 9 starts, first at right tackle after Conklin went down and then at left tackle after Wills went down, but he suffered a season ending injury of his own in week 13 and the other two tackles who made starts for the Browns last season, James Hudson (7 starts) and Geron Christian (9 snaps), both struggled mightily with PFF grades of 46.8 and 42.3.

Wills, Conklin, and Jones all return healthy for 2024 and, at least for now, it looks like everyone will remain in the role they became last season, Wills on the left side, Conklin on the right side, and Jones as the backup, even though Wills struggled last season, Conklin is coming off of a major injury, and Jones showed he was a capable starter with the upside for more in the absence of Conklin and Wills last season. However, that could change at some point, particularly if Wills continues to struggle.

A first round pick in 2020, Wills has been better in the past and is only in his age 25 season, but he has yet to live up to his draft slot, as his better seasons were PFF grades of just 61.5, 66.1, and 62.9 in 45 total starts in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Conklin, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in 8 straight seasons, with 6 seasons above 70, but he’s coming off of the second major knee injury in his career and now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2024. He’s starting his decline from a pretty high base point, but it seems unlikely he’ll be at his best this season.

Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, and Wyatt Teller remain as the starters on the interior, at left guard, center, and right guard respectively and all three are coming off of solid seasons, with PFF grades of 68.0, 71.4, and 72.9 respectively. For Bitonio, last season was actually a down year, in fact the worst season-long grade of his 10-year career. Bitonio has eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he’s now going into his age 33 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could continue declining further. There’s at least a decent chance he remains an above average starter, but that’s not a guarantee. To prepare for life without Bitonio, the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Zak Zinter for depth and a potential long-term replacement.

Teller is also getting up there in age a little bit, heading into his age 30 season. His best two seasons were in 2020 and 2021 when he had PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9, but, even though he hasn’t reached those heights since, he has remained in the 70s in each of the past two seasons. He could decline further in 2024, given his age, but he’s not totally over the hill and has a good chance to remain an above average starter, with the potential to even bounce back a little bit towards his prime form.

Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the three, going into his age 29 season. Injuries have been a concern for him throughout his career, as he’s made 14 or more starts in a season just twice in seven seasons in the league, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, with back-to-back seasons over 70 and he should remain an above average starter in 2024, for as long as he can stay on the field. The Browns also signed a better backup center in Brian Allen, who has made 32 career starts in six seasons in the league, with only one season below 60 on PFF and a 80.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2021. He should be able to hold down the fort for at least a few games if Pocic misses time again. Overall, this is an aging offensive line, but they should be healthier than a year ago and still look above average as a group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Browns also were without feature back Nick Chubb for most of last season, a big loss, as Chubb had previously rushed for 6,511 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1,238 carries (5.26 YPC) in 77 games since being a second round pick in 2018. Chubb should be healthier this season, but he might not be available or 100% for the start of the season, given the severity of his injury. He’s also going into his age 29 season with 1,361 career touches, which is a common point when running backs start to slow down. He should give them more than he gave them a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect his peak form in 2024, especially not for a full season.

In Chubb’s absence, Jerome Ford rushed for 813 yards and 4 touchdowns on 204 carries (3.99 YPC), Kareem Hunt rushed for 411 yards and 9 touchdowns on 135 carries (3.04 YPC), and Pierre Strong rushed for 291 yards and 1 touchdown on 63 carries (4.62 YPC). Ford, a 2022 5th round pick who previously had just 8 touches as a rookie, will likely remain the lead back if Chubb misses more time, but he had just a 39.7% carry success rate last season and is probably overstretched as a true lead back, so he could see a pretty even carry split with free agent addition D’onta Foreman, who should be an upgrade on free agent departure Kareem Hunt.

Foreman only averaged 3.90 YPC with the Bears last season, but he had a 53.2% carry success rate. He also had a 48.8% carry success rate with 4.50 YPC on 203 carries in 2022 and a 48.9% carry success rate with 4.26 YPC on 133 carries in 2021, so he should be a useful tandem back with Ford if Chubb misses time. Chubb has never been much of a pass catcher, even at his best, with 0.96 yards per route run and 123 catches in 77 career games, while Ford and Foreman have career averages of just 1.00 yards per route run and 1.01 yards per route run respectively, so another free agent addition Nyheim Hines could carve out a role as a passing down back, even after Chubb returns.

Hines missed all of last season with injury and prior to that only had a 3.93 YPC average on 306 carries in his first five seasons in the league, but he does have a career 1.52 yards per route run average and, if he’s mostly over his injury, he should be useful for a Browns offense that otherwise lacks a good passing down option. The Browns also still have Kevin Strong, but the 2022 4th round pick only has 85 touches in two seasons in the league and, with Foreman and Hines being added this off-season, Strong will have an uphill battle to win a roster spot, especially if Chubb avoids the PUP list to begin the season. Overall, much of how well this backfield performs is dependent on how much and how well Chubb plays in his return from a major injury, but he should give them more than a year ago at the very least and the Browns also have better depth behind him this time around, meaning a smaller role for Jerome Ford even if Chubb does miss time.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to bringing back all of their key players from a year ago, the Browns also added to their receiving corps, giving away a pair of a late round picks for Jerry Jeudy and extending him on a 3 year, 52.5 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Jeudy never quite lived up to his billing as a 2020 1st round pick with the Broncos, but he still averaged a 63/911/3 slash line per 17 games, with 1.83 yards per route run, despite poor quarterback play in Denver, and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform better in his second home than his first.

The Browns already had Amari Cooper, who had a 72/1250/5 slash line with a 2.31 yards per route run average last season, with a 81/1152/7 slash line per 17 games and a 1.93 yards per route run average in 9 seasons in the league, but Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman struggled with slash lines of 59/640/2 and 21/224/0, as well as yards per route run averages of 1.14 and 0.63, so it’s understandable why the Browns felt the need to upgrade their receiving corps. It wouldn’t be hard for Jeudy to be an upgrade over both of them and Moore and Tillman will now compete for the third receiver job.

Moore and Tillman also have the upside to be better in 2024 than 2023. Tillman was a 2023 3rd round pick and has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Moore was a second round pick in 2021 and averaged 1.23 yards per route run in his first two seasons prior to taking a small step back in 2023. Only in his age 24 season, he could bounce back a little in 2024, especially in a smaller role, although Tillman has the higher upside and could be the favorite for the #3 receiving job, despite his rough rookie season.

The Browns also have David Bell, who was a third round pick in 2022, but only has 0.87 yards per route run and 38 catches in 31 career games, and they used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Jamari Thrash, but both are likely to be deep reserve options, behind whoever loses the Moore/Tillman battle. Cooper is likely to remain the #1 receiver, although his age is a minor concern in his age 30 season and Jeudy is likely to eat into his target share somewhat as a high upside #2 receiver, with Moore and Tillman playing smaller roles behind them, in which they could be more efficient than a year ago.

Without a good #2 wide receiver last season, tight end David Njoku had a big role with a 81/882/6 slash line on 123 targets and a 1.70 yards per route run average. He’ll probably see a smaller role in 2024 with Jeudy being added, but he also had a 36/475/4 slash line on 53 targets with 1.56 yards per route run in 2022 and a 58/628/4 slash line on 80 targets with 1.55 yards per route run in 2023, so he should remain productive even if he doesn’t see as many targets.

Harrison Bryant (406 snaps) was the primary tight end behind Njoku last season, but he had just a 13/81/3 slash line with 0.56 yards per route run and was mostly a blocker, an aspect of the game he also struggled in. Bryant was let go this off-season and Jordan Akins, who played 231 snaps as the third tight end last season, will probably play a bigger role, particularly as a blocker. He’s a better receiver than Bryant was a year ago, with 1.26 yards per route run in his career, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and has never been much of a blocker, so he’s a pretty underwhelming backup tight end. Still, with an improved receiving corps and a talented top tight end in David Njoku, the Browns have a solid receiving corps overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Browns got a great performance from their defense last season. Defensive performance is much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, so they could regress somewhat defensively, but they bring back all of their key performers from a year ago and, as a result, they should have a better chance than most top defenses of repeating that performance again this season. No player is more key than edge defender Myles Garrett, who had a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run and as a pass rusher, with 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, en route to a Defensive Player of the Year award.

That was Garrett’s first Defensive Player of the Year, but it might not be his last and he’s far from a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 80.0, 86.9, 86.5, 89.5, 92.0, and 92.5 in the six seasons prior to last season, while playing 100 of a possible 115 games, averaging 53.2 snaps per game, and totaling 88.5 sacks, 86 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in his career, with 46 sacks, 42 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 49 games over the past three seasons. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Garrett in 2024.

It wasn’t just Garrett though, as part of the reason why their defense was so good last season was that they finally had a good complement opposite Garrett. In his first season in Cleveland, Za’Darius Smith had a 82.6 PFF grade on 580 snaps, playing the run well and finishing with 5.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 15.5% pressure rate in 16 games. That’s not out of the ordinary for Smith, who has finished above 70 in five straight healthy seasons, with three seasons over 80, while totaling 50 sacks, 86 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate and playing 47.1 snaps per game in 80 games over that stretch, but he is now going into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty base base point and has a good chance to remain an above average starter even if he declines, but a noticeable decline from him would hurt this defense, at least somewhat.

The Browns also got good play out of their top reserve edge defender Ogbo Okoronkwo, who had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate. That’s also not out of the ordinary for him, as he had PFF grades of 79.2, 75.1, and 65.7 over the three seasons prior to last season, on an average of 405 snaps per season, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 44 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

The Browns also bring back Alex Wright. He has PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in two seasons in the league, but the 2022 3rd round pick could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, the Browns won’t need him for much of a role unless there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is a deep and talented edge defender group, even if Za’Darius Smith’s age and potential decline are concerns.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender position, with one exception, which I’ll get to later. Dalvin Tomlinson, who had a 63.3 PFF grade on 617 snaps, Shelby Harris, who had a 70.5 PFF grade on 438 snaps, and Maurice Hurst who had a 81.0 PFF grade on 302 snaps, all return, which is a good thing for this defense. Tomlinson is going into his age 30 season and coming off of the first season of his 7-year career in which he was below 70 on PFF, but he was still effective as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate, even if his run defense dropped off.

Prior to last season, Tomlinson had mostly been a solid run stopper, while totaling 16 sacks, 34 hits, and a 7.0% pressure rate in 109 career games. His best days might be behind him at this point, but he still has a good chance to remain a useful player, particularly in passing situations. Shelby Harris is also getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season, but he finished above 70 on PFF for the sixth time in seven seasons last season. In those seven seasons, he has averaged 507 snaps per season and totalled 25 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.3% pressure rate in 107 games. Harris could easily decline in 2024, given his age, but he could also remain a useful rotational player.

The Browns are also probably hoping to get more out of Maurice Hurst, who missed four games with injury last season, but he’s had durability problems throughout his career, maxing out at 522 snaps in a season and only playing in every game once in six seasons in the league, while missing 44 games total over that stretch. Hurst has always played pretty well when healthy, with PFF grades over 70 in every season in his career in which he’s played a snap and a career 8.2% pressure rate, and he should continue playing well in 2024, but it’s also likely he misses most time with injury at some point.

The one big change in this group is that Jordan Elliott left, but he had a 46.5 PFF grade across 440 snaps and the Browns added veteran Quinton Jefferson and second round rookie Mike Hall to replace him and both should be upgrades. Jefferson is going into his age 31 season and has never been much of a run defender, but he’s at least a useful pass rusher with 25.5 sacks, 50 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in 94 games over the past six seasons, which is more than you can say about Elliott, who had a 5.2% pressure rate last season. Even on the wrong side of 30, Jefferson should be an upgrade. Hall, meanwhile, enters the league with a high upside and could be useful in a reserve role as a rookie, before likely developing into a starter long-term as many of the Browns’ interior defender options go into their 30s. Even with age being a concern in this group, this is a deeper group than a year ago and it should be a solid bunch overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Browns’ linebacking corps is the group that had the most changes on this defense this off-season, with both Sione Takitaki, who had a 68.6 PFF grade on 563 snaps, and Anthony Walker, who had a 71.1 PFF grade on 454 snaps, leaving this off-season. Neither is irreplaceable though and the Browns added at least one good replacement in Jordan Hicks. Hicks is going into his age 32 season, which is a concern, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, while playing 60.2 snaps per game in 122 career games. Last season, he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games and, even if he isn’t as good this year, given his age, he could still be at least a capable every down linebacker.

Hicks will start next to fellow every down linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was the Browns’ best linebacker a year ago, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 756 snaps. That’s nothing new for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie and then a 65.5 PFF grade on 535 snaps in 2022. Still only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible his best years are still ahead of him and, even if they’re not, he should remain at least an above average starter for years to come.

Veteran Devin Bush was signed to be the third linebacker this off-season and he figures to be a weak spot on this defense, but he won’t have to play much unless Owusu-Koramoah or Hicks miss extended time with injury. Bush was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2019 and had a solid 62.9 PFF grade on 889 snaps as a rookie, but he got hurt in his second season and hasn’t been the same, with PFF grades below 60 on 488 snaps per season in four seasons since.

Bush is still relatively young in his age 26 season, but he’s running out of time to make good on his potential and, even in a part-time role, he’s a mediocre option. He could have to compete for the job with 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, but Fields has PFF grades of 50.0 and 49.8 on snap counts of 276 and 234 over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a rookie, so Bush is still probably the better option. Led by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, this is a solid linebacking corps overall, even if they’re not quite as deep as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The personnel remains the same in the secondary. Nine Browns defensive backs played 200 snaps or more last season and all nine will return. The Browns will be hoping for better health though, as all but one of those nine missed at least three games due to injury last season. Denzel Ward missed four games as the top cornerback, but that’s not out of the ordinary, as he’s missed 20 games in six seasons in the league, missing at least two games in every season. He still had a solid 69.6 PFF grade when on the field, his fifth season above 60 in six seasons in the league, with three seasons over 70, and the 2018 1st round pick is still only in his age 27 season, he should remain an above average starter in 2024, as long as he’s on the field.

Fellow cornerback Greg Newsome missed three games, but he also had a solid PFF grade when healthy, finishing with a 69.6 PFF grade across 770 snaps. Like Ward, he’s a former first round pick and he has been solid throughout his career, with a 68.1 PFF grade on 691 snaps as a rookie and a 69.1 PFF grade on 907 snaps in his second season in the league, before another solid season in 2023. Still only in his age 24 season, he should remain at least a solid starter going forward and it’s possible his best days are still ahead of him.

Another starting cornerback, Martin Emerson, was the Browns’ healthiest defensive back last season, playing 856 snaps in 16 games and finishing with a 65.8 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Emerson also had a 72.5 PFF grade on 783 snaps as a rookie and looks on his way towards being at least a solid starter for years to come, still only in his age 24 season. The Browns also have 2023 5th round pick Cameron Mitchell as the top reserve, although he did struggle with a 58.1 PFF grade on 277 snaps as a rookie and isn’t necessarily going to be better in his second season in the league in 2023, so the Browns’ depth behind their top-3 cornerbacks is pretty suspect.

At safety, Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill remain the starters, after posting PFF grades of 70.0 and 67.3 on 738 snaps in 13 games and 602 snaps in 11 games respectively last season. Delpit is coming off of a career best year, after PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.6 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but the 2020 2nd round pick came into the league with a high upside and is only going into his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, while probably playing more games this year than last year.

Thornhill, meanwhile, is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, the first four of which came with the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year was a career low in snaps for him and he should be healthier in 2024, while likely remaining a solid starter. Rodney McLeod (280 snaps), Ronnie Hickman (308 snaps), and D’Anthony Bell (226 snaps) also played roles at safety for the Browns in 2023 and they will compete for the top reserve job in 2024.

McLeod is by far the most experienced, with 143 starts in 12 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in ten of those seasons and above 70 in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 54.1 PFF grade last season and now is going into his age 34 season, so he could continue struggling. Hickman and Bell, meanwhile, had PFF grades of 77.2 and 86.5 last season, but are completely unproven, with Bell being a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled in 72 snaps as a rookie prior to last season and Hickman being a 2023 undrafted free agent. All three candidates for the top reserve job have some upside, but they all have significant downside as well. Overall, this was a solid secondary a year ago and they should be healthier and, as a result, better in 2024.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns went 11-6 and secured a playoff spot last season, despite the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury, most notably at the quarterback position. This season, they should be healthier and they return almost their entire team from a year ago. They are one of the oldest teams in the league, with the 4th highest average age in the league and 8 of their 22 expected starters set to be 30 or older in 2024, which hurts their projection somewhat, as does the fact that defensive performance tends to be less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but the Browns should still be very much in the mix, not just for a playoff spot but for the division title, even in the loaded AFC North.

Prediction: 11-6, 3rd in AFC North

Seattle Seahawks 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Quarterback

The Seahawks seemed to be starting a rebuild two off-seasons ago, trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos for a package that included three players, two first round picks, and two second round picks. However, Wilson’s former backup Geno Smith has broken out over the past two seasons, after making just five starts in the previous seven seasons, while Wilson dropped off significantly in Denver and was cut after just two seasons.

In his first season as the Seahawks’ starter in 2022, Smith completed 69.8% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Smith wasn’t quite as good in 2023, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.27 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but he proved he wasn’t a one-year wonder and led an offense that ranked 11th in both yards per play and first down rate. What held the Seahawks back as a team in 2023 was mostly their defense, which ranked 24th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed. In an attempt to improve that side of the ball, the Seahawks fired long-time head coach Pete Carroll, an aging defensive mind, and replaced him with a much younger defensive mind in ex-Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald.

Because of Smith’s performance, the Seahawks have been able to have a little bit of the best of both worlds, remaining competitive, while accumulating significant draft capital. Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks have finished 9-8 in each season, qualifying for the post-season in 2022 and just missing out in 2023, while also selecting eight times in the top-75 picks between the 2022 and 2023 drafts. Whether or not the Seahawks can take the next step in 2024 largely depends on how those recent high draft picks develop, although that assumes Smith can avoid declining, now in his age 34 season.

The Seahawks haven’t used one of their high draft picks on quarterback of the future behind Geno Smith, but they did trade for ex-Commanders starter Sam Howell this off-season and the 2022 5th round pick is still only in his age 24 season, so he still has long-term potential. He was underwhelming in 18 starts over his first two seasons in the league in Washington, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, while taking 68 sacks, despite decent pass protection in front of him, leading to the Commanders moving on this off-season, but he’s at least a capable backup with the upside for more in the future, while Smith could remain a solid starter for at least another season. With Smith and Howell, this is a solid, if unspectacular quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Smith has played well, but he has definitely had help on this offense, most notably in the receiving corps. The Seahawks already had one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both surpassed 1000 yards receiving in 2020 and 2022, and they added further to this receiving corps last off-season when they used one of their first round picks, 20th overall, on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba got off to a slow start to his rookie season, in part due to missing most of the off-season with injury, but from week 5 on, he had a 51/556/4 slash line in 13 games, which extrapolates to a 67/727/5 slash line over 17 games, while averaging 1.44 yards per route run over that stretch, doing so despite having Metcalf and Lockett ahead of him on the depth chart.

Now going into his second season in the league, with a healthier off-season, Smith-Njigba could easily take a step forward. If he does, it would probably come at the expense of Lockett, who is going into his age 32 season and seems to be on the decline. From 2018-2022, Lockett averaged a 79/1057/9 slash line per season with a 1.97 yards per route run average, but in 2023, he fell to 79/894/5 with a 1.61 yards per route run average, both lower than any single season during the previous five seasons.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lockett decline further in 2024, though he could still remain a solid pass catcher and he could age better than most receivers, having only ever missed two games in nine seasons in the league. DK Metcalf, meanwhile, is only going into his age 27 season and is very much in the prime of his career. A 2nd round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Metcalf has averaged a 74/1066/9 slash line per season with a 1.91 yards per route run average in his career, while also being very durable, missing just one game due to injury.

The Seahawks have one of the top wide receiver trios in the league, but injuries could happen, so depth may be needed. Jake Bobo, a 2023 undrafted free agent, showed some promise as a reserve last season, with a 19/196/2 slash line and a 1.31 yards per route run average, and he would probably be the Seahawks first option if one of their top-3 misses time. The Seahawks also still have 2021 2nd round Dee Eskridge, although he’s shown next to nothing in three seasons in the league, with just 17 catches and a 0.59 yards per route run average. Already going into his age 27 season, he’s running out of time to even be a capable backup and he won’t be guaranteed a roster spot.

The Seahawks gave significant playing time to three tight ends last season, Noah Fant (570 snaps), Colby Parkinson (494 snaps), and Will Dissly (378 snaps), but this season the Seahawks seem likely to just feature Fant as their primary tight end, re-signing him on a 2-year, 21 million dollar deal ahead of free agent, while letting Parkinson and Dissly go elsewhere. The only player remaining on the roster that the Seahawks acquired in the Russell Wilson trade, Fant is a 2019 1st round pick who has averaged a decent 1.48 yards per route run in his career and is only heading into his age 27 season. His 1.29 yards per route run average in 2023 led all Seahawks tight ends, so this offense could benefit from him having a bigger role.

Fant only had a 32/414/0 slash line last season, but that came on just 43 targets and Parkinson and Dissly leave behind 56 vacated targets, so Fant should see a significant uptick in production in 2024, even on a team that has a great trio of wide receivers. The only additions the Seahawks made at the tight end position this season are Pharaoh Brown, a veteran blocking specialist who has only caught 64 passes in 70 career games, and 4th round rookie AJ Barner, who is unlikely to play a significant role in year one. Led by a talented top-3 at wide receiver in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a promising pass catching tight end in Noah Fant, this is a well above average receiving corps.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Seahawks also had an effective running game in 2023. Kenneth Walker was the lead back, with 905 yards and 8 touchdowns on 219 carries. That’s an average of 4.13 YPC, which was down from his rookie season, when the 2022 second round pick turned 228 carries into 1,050 yards and 9 touchdowns, a 4.61 YPC, but Walker had a disproportionate amount of his yardage as a rookie on long carries, with 17 carries of 15+ yards going for 481 yards, 45.8% of his overall total. On his other 211 carries, he averaged just 2.70 YPC and, as a result, Walker had a carry success rate of just 39.9%.

In 2023, Walker only had 28.0% of his rushing yards on 10 carries of 15+ yards, averaging 3.12 YPC on his other carries and seeing his carry success rate jump to 46.6%. The Seahawks took Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft as competition for Walker because of Walker’s low carry success rate as a rookie, but Walker was able to improve in that area and hold Charbonnet off for the starting job all season, with Charbonnet limited to 108 carries as a true backup. Charbonnet was effective in that role though, averaging 4.28 YPC with a 49.1% carry success rate and looks more than capable of taking over the lead back job if needed in case of an injury to Walker.

Walker also took a big step forward as a pass catcher in his second season in the league in 2023, going from a 27/165/0 slash line and 0.67 yards per route run as a rookie to a 29/259/1 slash line and 1.30 yards per route run in his second season. In addition to giving them another option as a runner if Walker didn’t improve his carry success rate, Charbonnet was drafted to be a passing down complement to Walker, but Charbonnet ended up only having a 33/209/0 slash line and averaging 0.76 yards per route run as a rookie. He could be better in that aspect in year two though. Walker and Charbonnet should remain an effective tandem in 2024 and they could be even better than a year ago, given how young both still are.

Depth behind Walker and Charbonnet is a minor concern, as the Seahawks don’t have another running back on the roster with an NFL carry and the only one who didn’t go undrafted is 2023 7th round pick Kenny McIntosh, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but both Walker and Charbonnet seem capable of being a feature back in the case that the other one is injured so whoever the third back is would likely not see much action even if one of the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart gets hurt. Led by Walker and Charbonnet, this is a solid backfield, even if their depth is a small concern.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

In addition to using high draft picks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet in recent drafts, the Seahawks also used a pair of high draft picks in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pair of offensive tackles, Charles Cross, who went 9th overall, and Abraham Lucas, who went 72nd overall. Both immediately became starters as rookie, with Cross receiving a 63.7 PFF grade in 17 starts on the left side and Lucas receiving a 68.5 PFF grade in 16 starts on the right side.

Both remained starters in 2023, but injuries limited Lucas to six mediocre starts (53.1 PFF grade), while Cross missed three games of his own, though he did take a step forward with a 67.6 PFF grade. In their absence, Stone Forsythe (8 starts), Jake Curhan (4 starts), and Jason Peters (2 starts) all struggled, with PFF grades of 58.2, 55.7, and 53.9 respectively. Both Cross and Lucas should remain starters in 2024, and Lucas has bounce back potential if healthy, while Cross has a chance to take another step forward in his third season in the league, but the Seahawks also improved their depth by signing veteran George Fant, who could theoretically push Lucas for his starting job if he continues struggling this season.

Fant is an experienced starter, with 73 starts in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all but two of those seasons, with two seasons above 70, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and has been mediocre with PFF grades of 48.4 and 63.5 on snap counts of 516 and 915 over the past two seasons, so his best days are probably behind him. He’s not bad depth to have and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the backup tackles the Seahawks had last season, but he could struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time. Stone Forsythe also remains, but the 2021 6th round pick has been mediocre across 633 career snaps and would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see action, while Jake Curhan and Jason Peters were not brought back this off-season.

The Seahawks also got mediocre play from the interior of their offensive line last season, as five players made starts at the three interior spots and all finished below 60 on PFF. When you include their issues at tackle, the Seahawks had ten players make starts on the offensive line last season and only Charles Cross finished above 60 on PFF. The Seahawks weren’t a bad run blocking offensive line last season, ranking 15th on PFF in team run blocking grade, but they struggled mightily in pass protection, ranking 28th on PFF in team pass blocking grade.

Left guard Damien Lewis, 59.6 PFF grade in 16 starts, right guard Phil Haynes, 52.0 PFF grade in 8 starts, and center Evan Brown, 55.5 PFF grade in 16 starts, all weren’t retained this off-season, but the players the Seahawks replaced this with this off-season aren’t really upgrades. Veteran guard Laken Tomlinson is probably the biggest addition they made. In his prime, he was a solid starter, finishing above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2017-2021, including career best PFF grades of 78.8 and 75.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he has fallen to 56.8 and 55.0 in two seasons since and now heads into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily continue struggling.

Tomlinson is at least experienced, with 138 starts in nine seasons in the league, and is probably locked into a starting job, due to the lack of a better option. The Seahawks also used a third round pick on Christian Haynes and he will likely compete with 2023 4th round pick Anthony Bradford for the right guard job. Bradford was underwhelming as a rookie with a 51.7 PFF grade in 10 starts, but Haynes could struggle through growing pains as a rookie and wouldn’t necessarily be an upgrade. It’s possible Bradford could be better in his second season in the league and he’s probably the favorite for the starting job, but there’s a good chance right guard is a position of weakness regardless.

At center, the Seahawks signed ex-Browns backup Nick Harris to compete with 2023 5th round pick Olu Oluwatimi, who struggled with a 53.1 PFF grade on 128 rookie year snaps. Harris isn’t necessarily a better option though, as the 2020 5th round pick has been mediocre across just 522 career snaps. Oluwatimi could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but it’s likely that center will also be a position of weakness in 2024. The Seahawks should have better health at tackle this season, but they are still weak on the interior of the offensive line and this should remain a below average offensive line overall.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Seahawks had eight picks in the top-75 between the 2022 and 2023 drafts due to Russell Wilson trade and five of those picks were used on offense, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, running backs Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet, and offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. The Seahawks also used two of those picks on edge defenders, taking Boye Mafe in the second round in 2022 and Derick Hall in the second round in 2023.

The Mafe selection has worked out well. He was decent in a rotational role as a rookie with a 65.8 PFF grade on 423 snaps and then took a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2023, playing 808 snaps, receiving a 73.9 PFF grade, and totaling 9 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he regressed a little bit in 2024, but he came into the league with a lot of upside, so he could easily continue being an above average starter and he could also improve further. Derick Hall, on the other hand, has not panned out yet, struggling mightily with a 44.4 PFF grade as a rookie, playing terribly against the run and managing just a 8.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Hall still has plenty of time to improve, but he would need to improve in a big way to even be a decent rotational player in 2024, so he could easily continue struggling. Another former second round pick, Darrell Taylor, also struggled at the edge defender position for the Seahawks last season, with 50.9 PFF grade across 522 snaps, but he is already going into his 5th season in the league and his age 27 season and he’s consistently struggled throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in every season, struggling mightily against the run and managing just 21.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in 49 career games, so he’s running out of time to improve and will likely continue struggling in 2024.

The Seahawks also have veteran Uchenna Nwosu, who they should get a healthier season out of, after he was limited to 283 snaps in 6 games last season. Nwosu was decent with a 68.5 PFF grade in his limited action last season and had PFF grades of 64.3 and 72.6 on snap counts of 781 and 904 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, so he has plenty of bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s healthy, only going into his age 28 season. He had also only missed three games with injury in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s not an injury prone player.

Nwosu was a reserve for most of his first three seasons in the league, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, holding up against the run and totaling 26.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate in 85 career games, with 16.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate in 40 games over the past three seasons since becoming a full-time starter. Assuming he’s healthy, which he should, I would expect a similar level of play from him this season. He and Mafe should be a solid starting duo, but top reserves Derick Hall and Darrell Taylor are likely to continue struggling, which hurts the overall grade of this position group.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

With so many high selections between the 2022 and 2023 draft, the Seahawks could afford to part ways with a high pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and they did so by trading their second round choice to the Giants for interior defender Leonard Williams in the middle of the 2023 season. Williams was in the final year of his contract and the Seahawks had to give him a 3-year, 64.5 million dollar deal to keep him long-term, so the total investment the Seahawks made in him was very significant, but he the type of player you can build a position group around, so the decision to pay that price for him made sense.

Originally the 6th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, Williams has lived up to the billing, surpassing 70 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, playing equally well against the run and as a pass rusher, while totaling 43.5 sacks, 140 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 142 career games. He’s also been very durable, missing just six games in his career, despite playing 51.9 snaps per game and 818 snaps per season. In 2023, he played 884 snaps and had a 76.2 PFF grade, while totaling 5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate. The one concern is he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he’s starting from such a high base point that, even if he does start to decline this season, he should remain an above average every down player and it’s possible he doesn’t decline at all.

In addition to trading away their second round pick for Williams, the Seahawks also used their first round pick this year on another interior defender, Byron Murphy, who should be an effective rotational player in year one, even if he struggles through some growing pains. Veterans Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed also remain and will continue playing roles, although, with Williams going into his first full season in Seattle and Murphy being added, it’s hard to see them matching last year’s snap counts, when Jones played 762 snaps and Reed played 809 snaps.

Jones signed a 3-year, 51.53 million dollar deal with the Seahawks last off-season, so it’s very likely he’ll see a higher snap count than Reed, who is on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal. Jones isn’t much of a run defender and was probably overpaid last off-season, but he does have 26.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 73 career games, including 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate last season, so he’s at least a useful pass rusher and should continue playing the vast majority of sub package snaps for the Seahawks. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from Jones in 2024, below average run defense, but above average pass rush.

Reed, on the other hand, is going into his age 32 season, another reason why I would expect him to be behind Jones in the pecking order this season. He’s also never been much more than a snap eater in his career, averaging 677 snaps per season in eight seasons in the league and 44.4 snaps per game in 122 career games, but never exceeding a 66.8 PFF grade for a season from PFF, with three seasons below 60. He’s a well-rounded player, with decent run defense and 34 sacks, 68 hits, and a 7.5% pressure rate in his career, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline significant this season and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to be anything more than a decent rotational player.

The Seahawks also added another veteran, Johnathan Hankins, to the mix this off-season, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and I wouldn’t expect him to be anything more than a deep reserve, given that he was signed for close to the veteran’s minimum and given all of the other options the Seahawks have at the position. In his prime, Hankins was a good run defender who could also get to the quarterback at a decent rate, surpassing a 60 grade overall on PFF in each of his first eight seasons in the league from 2013-2020, including four seasons over 70, but he’s clearly past his prime, with PFF grades of 46.9, 46.0, and 51.8 on snap counts of 568, 235, and 350 respectively over the past three seasons. He won’t see many snaps this season, if he even makes the final roster, in an overall deep position group.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker Bobby Wagner was one of the Seahawks’ best defensive players last season, with a 82.4 PFF grade across 1,170 snaps, but he wasn’t brought back this off-season. In fact, the Seahawks completely retooled their linebacking corps this off-season, letting Jordyn Brooks (802 snaps) and Devin Bush (251 snaps) also leave in free agency this off-season. Wagner will be tough to replace, but Brooks and Bush struggled with PFF grades of 57.3 and 57.5 respectively and the Seahawks added a promising option in Tyrel Dodson and a reliable option in Jerome Baker.

Dodson went undrafted in 2019 and only played 471 mediocre snaps in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, but he broke out in a big way with a 89.5 PFF grade in 550 snaps as an injury replacement last season, excelling in coverage and against the run. He’s never been a season-long every down linebacker and he’s a complete one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he’s only in his age 26 season and comes to the Seahawks with a lot of upside, though also a lot of downside, if he regresses back to his pre-2023 form or can’t translate last season’s performance into a season-long every down role.

Dodson probably won’t be as good as Wagner was a year ago, but Baker should be better than Brooks and Bush were. A 6-year veteran, Baker has averaged 887 snaps per season and has exceeded 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league, including three straight and PFF grades of 78.0 and 66.6 on snap counts of 1,010 and 713 in his last two seasons. Only in his age 28 season, Baker should at least be a capable every down option, with the upside to be an above average every down option if he can come close to matching his career best year in 2022.

Depth behind Dodson and Baker is a bit of a concern and would be a big concern if either Dodson or Baker missed significant time with injuries. Tyrice Knight was a 4th round pick in this year’s draft, but is probably too raw to make a positive impact in a significant role in year one, while their other options Drake Thomas and Jon Rhattigan are both recent undrafted free agents with little experience, with Thomas being a 2023 undrafted free agent who played 5 snaps as a rookie and Rhattigan being a 2021 undrafted free agent who played the first 21 snaps of his career in 2023. Dodson and Baker have a good chance to be a solid starting duo, but Dodson comes with a lot of downside, in addition to a lot of upside, and their depth behind those top-2 linebackers is very questionable.

Grade: B

Secondary

I’ve mentioned seven of the eight players the Seahawks took in the top-75 picks between 2022 and 2023. The final one I haven’t mentioned yet is probably their best, cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Selected 5th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft with a pick that was originally Denver’s following their terrible 2022 season, Witherspoon lived up to the hype and then some as a rookie, with a 84.1 PFF grade across 883 snaps in 14 games. Development is not always linear, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Witherspoon regressed a little in 2023, but he also could continue playing at a similar, if not better level and he looks well on his way towards developing into one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Witherspoon will start opposite Tariq Woolen, who wasn’t a premium draft pick, but who was a steal of a 5th round pick in 2022. Woolen has received PFF grades of 71.6 and 67.1 over his first two seasons in the league, while starting 32 of the 33 games he has played. He excels in coverage, with PFF coverage grades of 77.8 and 75.0, but struggles with run defense and tackling, with run defense grades of 47.8 and 37.3 from PFF, while missing 25 tackles across the two seasons combined. Still only in his age 25 season, Woolen should remain an above average cornerback for years to come and he has the upside to be even better if he can improve his tackling and run defense.

The third cornerback job will probably go to Tre Brown or Michael Jackson, who essentially split the role last season, seeing 603 snaps and 474 snaps respectively. Brown, a 4th round pick in 2021, was decent with a 62.8 PFF grade, after playing just 276 nondescript snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he could struggle in a more expanded role. Jackson, meanwhile, was much better with a 77.0 PFF grade, but the 2019 5th round pick wasn’t nearly as good in a bigger role in 2022, with a 60.2 PFF grade on 1,082 snaps, and prior to 2022, he played just 30 snaps in three seasons in the league. Neither are bad options, but both could be overmatched playing in an expanded role, so it’s possible the Seahawks continue to have them split snaps in 2024.

Veteran safety Quandre Diggs was the weak point of this secondary last season, with a 55.1 PFF grade across 1,155 snaps, as was fellow veteran Jamal Adams was to a lesser extent, with a 54.9 PFF grade across 518 snaps, but the Seahawks cut both of them this off-season, getting out of non-guaranteed salaries of 11 million and 16.5 million respectively in the process. To replace them, the Seahawks gave a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal to another veteran, Rayshawn Jenkins, who could be an upgrade, if only by default. Jenkins has started all 79 games he’s played over the past five seasons, but he’s finished below 60 in two of those five seasons, while only maxing out at 68.9 in 2020. Over the past two seasons, he has mediocre PFF grades of 57.3 and 60.9 and now he heads into his age 30 season.

Jenkins will probably be marginal at best with the Seahawks this year, but that would at least somewhat be an upgrade over Diggs and Adams. Jenkins will start next to another veteran Julian Love, who had a 72.8 PFF grade across 937 snaps last season. A 4th round pick in 2019, Love took a few years to develop, but he has developed into an above average starter, also posting a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,006 snaps in 2022, and he’s still only in his age 26 season, so he should remain an above average starter for years to come, with the upside for more if he continues developing.

The top backup safety job will likely go to either Coby Bryant or K’Von Wallace. Bryant was a 4th round pick in 2022, struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade across 757 snaps as a cornerback in his rookie season, converted to safety last season, and then struggled even more, with a 34.0 PFF grade across 147 snaps. He could theoretically have upside in his second season at his new position, but he has a long way to go to even be a capable backup and he would likely continue struggling in 2024, so he’s an underwhelming option.

Wallace, meanwhile, is a 2020 4th round pick who has been middling at best across 1,361 snaps (19 starts) in four seasons in the league, but is probably the better option by default. Overall, this is a solid secondary, led by a young, talented cornerback duo of Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen, as well as an above average safety in Julian Love, but this group does have some concerns outside of those three talented players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

A year ago, the Seahawks were a middling team with above average offensive performance and below average defensive performance. This season, their offense could continue being above average, unless quarterback Geno Smith regresses as he goes into his mid 30s, but their defense has a good chance to be better, as they are more talented than their results a year ago suggested and are getting a new scheme under bright young defensive end Mike McDonald. This team also has plenty of young talent on both sides of the ball that could take a step forward in 2024. The NFC is getting better though, so even if the Seahawks are better, that won’t guarantee them a post-season spot.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 2024 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2024September 1, 2024 stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most talented team in the league overall last season and arguably have been for the past two seasons. They had PFF’s top overall team grade and had nine players who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80, all of whom remain on the team for 2024, though there is one potential exception that I will get to later. The 49ers have been able to keep all of this talent under the cap by being aggressive in how they structure their contracts, using big signing bonuses to borrow future cap space, and by having the lowest paid quarterback in the league in Brock Purdy, who has been a revelation for them over the past two seasons, despite being the last pick in the draft in 2022.

The 49ers have seven players who have cap hits higher than 10 million in 2024, a list that is almost identical to the list of nine players who played more than 700 snaps and had PFF grades above 80, with the only two players from that list of nine who don’t have a cap hit above 10 million being the cheap Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, who just signed a new extension to lower his cap hit for 2024. The 49ers have yet to win it all, but they could have easily at least made the Super Bowl in 2022 if Purdy didn’t get hurt in the NFC Championship and last year they took the Chiefs to overtime in the Super Bowl and came within a couple plays of winning the game in regulation. With their entire core from a year ago returning for 2024, the 49ers should be considered one of the top teams in the league and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again.

As I mentioned, none of this would be possible without Brock Purdy exceeding expectations the way he has, completing 69.4% of his passes for an average of 9.64 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 21 career regular season starts, while going 17-4 in those games. Purdy has a lot of help around him, both in terms of talented supporting players and a great scheme coached by Kyle Shanahan, but Purdy has played well in his own right, posting a 76.6 PFF grade as a rookie and then jumping to a 88.4 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2023, 4th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Still only in his age 25 season, Purdy could keep improving and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Purdy does only have one more year left before he’s eligible for a massive pay raise on a long-term extension, which will make it harder for the 49ers to keep talent around him, especially with how aggressive they have been in borrowing future cap space, already about 26 million over the 2025 cap, but Purdy seems like he could develop into the kind of quarterback who could lead this team at least on deep playoff runs even if his supporting cast isn’t quite as good in the future. The 2024 season will probably be the 49ers’ best chance to win a Super Bowl for a while, given Purdy’s contract status and the long-term financial situation of this team, but they should remain competitive for years to come with Purdy under center, Shanahan calling plays, and numerous talented players still in their primes that the 49ers will prioritize keeping long-term.

Purdy will be backed up by veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs, who the 49ers signed this off-season. Calling him a journeyman is putting it lightly, as the 2017 4th round pick is already on his 8th team, including his 6th team since the start of the 2022 season, but he hasn’t been bad when he’s had to play over the past two seasons, completing 62.3% of his passes for an average of 5.93 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 14 starts. If Purdy suffered a significant injury that kept him out for a long-time, the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances would go way down, but Dobbs could hold down the fort if needed for a few games without this team completely tanking. With one of the better quarterbacks in the league and a capable backup, the 49ers are in good shape at the most important position in the game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned earlier, there is one key player from a year ago who could potentially not be on the roster for 2024 and that’s wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who is owed 14.124 million in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be traded if the 49ers don’t give him what he wants on a long-term extension. The 49ers would probably be able to lower Aiyuk’s cap hit for 2024 if they extended him, even on a deal that made him one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league, but that would give them another big contract to fit under the cap long-term and the 49ers at the very least seem to want to get the best deal possible in re-signing Aiyuk, given the state of their long-term cap situation and that Brock Purdy will be due a huge extension in a year.

A first round pick in 2020, Aiyuk has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, going from a 60/748/5 slash line with 1.73 yards per route run as a rookie, to a 56/816/5 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run in his second season in the league, to a 78/1015/8 slash line with 1.91 yards per route run in his third season in the league, to a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run last season, and he’s still only in his age 26 season and should remain in his prime for several years.

The 49ers do have another talented wide receiver in Deebo Samuel, who has averaged 2.29 yards per route run in his career, including a 60/892/7 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run in 2023, and they used their first round pick in this year’s draft on another talented wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, so they may view Aiyuk as expendable. In fact, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Pearsall if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the price, as the 49ers had more pressing needs they could have addressed. However, Pearsall is raw, Samuel is often injured, missing time in all five seasons in the league, with 17 games missed total, and the 49ers are in win now mode, so the best case scenario for them would be to keep Aiyuk at his current salary and then franchise tag and trade him next off-season before the draft, moving forward with Samuel and Pearsall long-term and avoiding another huge long-term financial commitment.

Aiyuk seems pretty committed to holding out until he gets his long-term extension, but he is still leaving a lot of money on the table if he sits out the 2024 season and sitting out the whole year would prevent him from being a free agent next off-season, so the 49ers do hold the leverage in this standoff. The most likely scenario is Aiyuk returning for 2024, with or without an extension, to play alongside Samuel and Pearsall, which would probably be the most talented wide receiver trio in the league, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Jauan Jennings was the #3 receiver last season and could remain in that role this season if Aiyuk is traded or if Pearsall is too raw to make a significant impact in year one. Jennings has only averaged 1.31 yards per route run in his career, with slash lines of 24/282/5, 35/416/1, and 19/265/1 over the past three seasons, but the 49ers still kept him on a 2-year, 15.39 million dollar deal this off-season, so they clearly value him, even with all of the other wide receiver talent the 49ers have on this roster. That contract is another sign that the 49ers don’t plan on keeping Aiyik long-term, as that would be a lot of money to pay a #4 receiver.

The 49ers also have a dominant tight end in George Kittle, who plays at a high level as a receiver and a blocker. He has finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, averaging 2.46 yards per route run and a 85/1180/7 slash line per 17 games, including 2.22 yards per route run and a 65/1020/6 slash line on just 90 targets last season. Kittle is going into his age 31 season and has missed 16 games in the past five seasons, which are both concerns, but the 49ers have enough talent that they can survive him being out for a few games, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless.

Charlie Woerner was their #2 tight end last season, playing 313 snaps, but he left this off-season and was replaced by veteran free agent Logan Thomas. Thomas is a decent pass catcher, with 184 catches and a 1.03 yards per route run average in 54 games over the past four seasons, and should be an upgrade over Woerner in that aspect, as Woerner has 11 catches and a 0.55 yards per route run average in four seasons in the league. However, Woerner is a much better run blocker, which is mostly what the 49ers need their #2 tight end for, so Thomas is probably a downgrade overall from Woerner, especially since he’s now going into his age 33 season. The 49ers also have 2023 3rd round pick Cameron Latu as a backup tight end option, but he missed his entire rookie season with injury and is a complete unknown at this point. This is the best receiving corps in the league, assuming Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Feature back Christian McCaffrey is also heavily involved in the passing game, with a 67/564/7 slash line and a 1.35 yards per route run average, but that was actually his lowest yards per route run average and his lowest yardage total for a healthy season in his career. McCaffrey has a career 1.71 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 80/651/5, 108/874/6, 116/1005/4, and 85/741/5 in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 respectively, but his 2024 receiving production will probably be around where it was in 2023 again, as there are just so many receiving options on this 49ers offense that someone is going to end up with less than they would have elsewhere.

Limiting McCaffrey’s passing game usage also helps them keep him fresh to carry the load as a runner and he excelled with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries last season (5.36 YPC), ranking 1st in the NFL in rushing yardage, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 1st in yards per carry among eligible running backs. In seven seasons in the league, McCaffrey has averaged 4.77 YPC with 52 touchdowns on 1,297 carries, even though he spent most of the early part of his career on bad offenses in Carolina, and he’s even more dangerous now on a 49ers offense that has so many other threats to worry about. He did miss 23 games due to injury from 2020-2021, but has otherwise not missed a game in his career, so it’s not fair to call him an injury prone player. In his age 28 season with 339 career touches, a potential decline for McCaffrey is a concern, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he is in the past, he should still be one of the best running backs in the league.

McCaffrey rarely comes off the field, playing 812 snaps last season (4th in the NFL among running backs), despite sitting out a meaningless week 18 game, so depth isn’t needed that much behind him, but when McCaffrey does need a breather or if he misses time with injury, the 49ers would likely turn either to incumbent backup Elijah Mitchell or to 4th round rookie Isaac Guerendo. Mitchell saw 81 touches as the backup last season, 16 of which came in that meaningless week 18 game that McCaffrey didn’t play.

Mitchell has an impressive 4.66 YPC average on 327 carries in three seasons in the league, 207 of which came when he was the lead back in 2021 prior to McCaffrey’s arrival, but he’s very injury prone, missing at least six games in every season, with 24 total games missed in three seasons in the league, and he’s not much of a pass catcher, with just 0.70 yards per route run in his career. Guerendo will probably be behind him on the depth chart, but if Mitchell misses time, Guerendo would likely become the #2 back and, if McCaffrey misses time, Guerendo, who caught 22 passes in his final collegiate season, would probably be the passing down complement to Mitchell. Led by arguably the best running back in the league, with capable depth behind him, the 49ers are in great shape at the running back position.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers probably would not have drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the cost. Some viewed that pick as a luxury pick that the 49ers could afford to make even if they were keeping Aiyuk, but, as talented as the 49ers’ roster is, they did have more pressing needs to address. One of those was the offensive line, which played pretty well last season and returns all five starters from a year ago, but three of those five starters are on the wrong side of 30, so an infusion of young talent was needed.

Left tackle Trent Williams was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 89.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s going into his age 36 season and could decline significantly soon, perhaps this season. Williams has finished above 70 on PFF in 13 straight seasons, a streak starting with his second season in the league in 2011, and he’s finished above 80 in all but one of those seasons, with five seasons above 90, including three straight as recently as 2020-2022, so even if he does decline significantly this season, he should remain at least an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would have a noticeable negative effect on the rest of this offense.

Center Jake Brendel is going into his age 32 season. The 2016 6th round pick only made three starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to becoming a full-time starter for the first time in 2022, but he’s made 34 starts over the past two seasons and hasn’t been bad, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 63.9. He doesn’t have much margin for error if he declines though, as he’s only a marginal starter at his best and would likely be a liability if he declined even a little. Right guard Jon Feliciano is also going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.2 PFF grade in 2023, but that was pretty out of character for him, as he’s only finished above 70 on PFF in one other season and that came in 2017 when he played just 124 snaps.

Feliciano has also only made 61 starts in nine seasons in the league, while exceeding 7 starts in a season in only twice. Last season was not one of those seasons, so his strong performance came in a pretty limited sample size, as he played just 478 snaps and made just 7 starts, starting the season on the bench and suffering multiple injuries after taking over the starting job. He’s a good fit for the 49ers blocking scheme, but given his age and his history, I would be surprised if he didn’t regress significantly in 2023. He should at least be available for more games this season though, which is a good thing because Spencer Burford, who started when Feliciano was on the bench or injured, struggled mightily with a 50.4 PFF grade across 846 snaps.

Left guard Aaron Banks is much younger, as the 2021 2nd round pick is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s been mediocre in two seasons as a starter, receiving a 62.7 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022 and a 54.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. He came into the league with a lot of upside and he’s still relatively young, even if he is older than most 4th year players are, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee. The 49ers don’t have much choice but to start him either way, as their alternatives are very underwhelming.

The aforementioned Spencer Burford is a 2022 6th round pick who has struggled even more over the past two seasons than Banks has and doesn’t have as much upside as Banks. Dominick Puni is a third round rookie who would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time as a rookie. Ben Bartch has made 20 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected by the Jaguars in the 4th round in 2020, but he’s been middling at best and mostly mediocre when forced into action. Chris Hubbard has made 58 starts in 11 seasons in the league and can play both guard and tackle, but he’s also been middling at best and is now going into his age 33 season.

Right tackle Colton McKivitz is the only offensive line starter below 30 who played well for the 49ers last season, as the 2020 5th round pick is only going into his age 28 season and had a solid 65.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. He’s only a one-year starter though, playing just 439 snaps and making just five starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season. He could remain a solid starter in 2024, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed somewhat, given his lack of experience.

The 49ers also have a good young swing tackle in Jaylon Moore, a 2021 5th round pick who has made seven starts in three seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 66.3 and 72.9 over the past two seasons. He’s relatively unproven and could struggle in an extended role, but he’s a solid option as far as swing tackles go. Overall, the 49ers’ offensive line looks likely to be worse than a year ago. They bring back all five starters, but four of them could be worse than a year ago, including three who are in their age 32 season or older.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position is another one the 49ers could have addressed early in the draft, after losing Arik Armstead, their biggest off-season loss. Armstead only played 509 snaps in 12 games last season, but he had a 81.9 PFF grade, excelling as an interior pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. He was going into his age 31 season and had a history of injuries, which is why the 49ers released him to save 18.26 million, but he will still be missed. To replace Armstead, the 49ers traded two late round picks for Maliek Collins and the 2 years and 23 million remaining on his contract. He’s younger than Armstead, only going into his age 29 season, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade, even if he doesn’t miss significant time like Armstead did last season.

Collins is an above average pass rusher, with pass rush grades in the 70s on PFF in four of the past five seasons, a stretch in which he has had 25.5 sacks, 53 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 119 games, but he also finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of those five seasons, while maxing out with a 65.4 overall grade from PFF. He should remain a similar player in 2024, above average as a pass rusher, below average as a run defender, and middling at best overall.

The 49ers also lost Javon Kinlaw in free agency this off-season, watching him sign with the Jets on a 1-year, 7.25 million dollar deal. He struggled mightily against the run, but was at least a good pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate, while his replacement Jordan Elliott, who the 49ers signed to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, isn’t good in any aspect of the game, finishing with PFF grades of 55.3, 41.6, 40.4, and 46.5 on snap counts of 307, 464, 703, and 440 in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020. Equally bad as a run defender and a pass rusher, Elliott has just 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 4.6% pressure rate in 66 career games. Elliott is now in his age 27 season, so it’s unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to continue struggling.

The 49ers do at least bring back Javon Hargrave, who had a 73.9 PFF grade across 632 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, while struggling somewhat against the run. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all eight seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense five times. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past five seasons, with 34 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 127 games. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 31 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his decline started in 2024. He should remain at least an above average pass rusher, but he might not be as good as he has been in recent years, while his run defense could get even worse.

The 49ers also bring back Kevin Givens, who played 398 snaps last season, although he’s an underwhelming option even as a reserve, finishing last season with a 56.9 PFF grade, his 5th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career, since going undrafted in 2019. Mediocre as a run defender and a pass rusher, Givens has just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.9% pressure rate in 57 career games and should continue struggling in 2024. The 49ers have a great interior pass rush duo of Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins, but both figure to struggle against the run, while their reserve options of Jordan Elliott and Kevin Givens aren’t good in any aspect of the game. With Arik Armstead gone and Javon Hargrave aging, this position group should be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position is another spot where the 49ers lost a key player this off-season and could have replaced him in the draft, but didn’t, as they lost Chase Young to the Saints on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young only spent half the season with the 49ers, after being acquired from the Commanders at the trade deadline for a third round pick, but he had a solid 68.6 PFF grade across 328 snaps, playing the run decently and adding 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 9 games. The 49ers also lost Clelin Ferrell this off-season and he was decent with a 60.7 PFF grade on 471 snaps, while totaling 3.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 17 games.

With no premium draft picks being used on the position, Young and Ferrell will be replaced by free agents Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, neither of whom are likely to be as good as Young was last season. Floyd was an above average edge defender in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons to begin his career, through the 2022 season, but he fell to 56.3 across 576 snaps last season and is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He was still a solid pass rusher with 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate last season, but he struggled against the run and missed a bunch of tackles, so he’s not as complete of a player as Chase Young was, even before you take his age into account.

Yetur Gross-Matos is much younger than Floyd, only going into his age 26 season, and he has upside as a 2020 2nd round pick, but he has been underwhelming through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7, 63.8, 51.2, and 65.4 respectively on snap counts of 377, 349, 847, and 465 respectively. He isn’t a bad run defender, but he only has 13 sacks, 18 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 55 career games and, unless he takes a big step forward in 2024, he figures to remain an underwhelming option.

The 49ers do still have Nick Bosa, who had a 92.7 PFF grade across 821 snaps last season. That was the best single season grade of his 5-year career, but he’s far from a one-year wonder, also receiving PFF grades of 86.7, 88.3, and 90.9 on snap counts of 777, 840, and 745 in 2019, 2021, and 2022 respectively, with a lost season due to injury in 2020 in between. He’s also not injury prone, only missing one game due to injury in his other four seasons combined, aside from his season ending injury in 2020.

In total, Bosa has 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, with 10.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate in 17 games last season and, as good as he is as a pass rusher, he is equally good against the run. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Bosa is on the short list of top Defensive Player of the Year candidates, an award he won in 2022. He elevates this position group significantly by himself.

Drake Jackson also figures to play more snaps then he did a year ago, when he suffered a season ending injury after 199 snaps in 8 games, which is why the 49ers went out and acquired Chase Young. Jackson was a second round pick in 2022, but has yet to live up to that, playing just 514 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league, while receiving middling PFF grades of 64.6 and 62.1. He’s a solid run stopper, but only has 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate thus far in his career. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 though, only going into his age 23 season. Still, this is an overall underwhelming position group outside of Nick Bosa, but Bosa is so good that it would be hard for this group to be bad overall as long as he is healthy.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In addition to Nick Bosa, the 49ers also have a dominant defender in their linebacking corps, as Fred Warner finished last season with a 90.2 PFF grade across 982 snaps. That was the best season of his career, but he also has had PFF grades of 88.6, 75.2, and 83.7 across snap counts of 973, 977, and 1,026 over the three seasons prior to last season, so, even if he isn’t as good as he was last season, he should still remain one of the best linebackers in the league, still very much in his prime in his age 28 season.

Fellow starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw is coming off of a solid season in his own right, with a 69.3 PFF grade on 848 snaps. That’s not out of character for him, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with an 81.2 PFF grade on 850 snaps in 2022. He’s also still in his prime in his age 27 season. Unfortunately, he tore his achilles in the Super Bowl and could miss a big chunk of the 2024 season and/or not be his best self when he returns.

Because of Greenlaw’s injury, the 49ers signed veteran De’Vondre Campbell to a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. In his prime, Campbell was one of the best linebackers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 84.7 and 75.6 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade in 2023 and is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He should still be an adequate replacement for Greenlaw while he is out or not at his best and, if Greenlaw can return to form at some point in 2024, Campbell is more than qualified to be the third linebacker in base packages.

If Greenlaw misses time, it’s unclear who the third linebacker in base packages would be and all of the 49ers’ options are underwhelming. Veterans Ezekiel Turner and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are both career special teamers who have played just 194 snaps in six seasons in the league and 468 snaps in five seasons in the league, while 2023 6th round pick Dee Winters struggled mightily on 61 snaps as a rookie.

The 49ers also have 2023 7th round pick Jalen Graham, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who is likely to struggle as a rookie. Fortunately, the third linebacker job is just a part-time role and the 49ers would only need a replacement until Greenlaw returns from injury. With Warner, Greenlaw, and Campbell as their top-3 linebackers, this is an impressive group, even with Greenlaw’s injury and their lack of depth outside of their top-3 taken into account.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The 49ers also got a dominant season out of top cornerback Chavarius Ward, who had an 82.6 PFF grade across 931 snaps in 2023. An undrafted free agent in 2018, Ward spent the first four seasons of his career in Kansas City and was a solid starter, receiving PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons while starting 41 of the 43 games he played across his final three seasons with the Chiefs, but he took off when he joined the 49ers on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, receiving a 83.2 PFF grade across 959 snaps in 2022, before repeating that level of play again in 2023. Ward’s contract, which once looked like an overpay, now looks like a steal, as he’s only the 11th highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Ward should remain a dominant cornerback in 2024 and is unlikely to regress to his pre-2022 form.

Deommodore Lenoir was the #2 cornerback last season and had a pretty solid season, with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps. He’s a one-year wonder, as the 2021 5th round pick had PFF grades of 57.1 and 55.9 across snap counts of 238 and 887 in the first two seasons of his career, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will regress this season.

Ambry Thomas (482 snaps) and Isaiah Oliver (503 snaps) also saw roles at cornerback last season and were solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 67.6 respectively. Oliver is no longer with the team, but Thomas remains and will compete with second round rookie Renardo Green and free agent acquisition Isaac Yiadom for the #3 cornerback job. Green has a high upside long-term, but Thomas and Yiadom could be better options in the short-term.

Both Thomas and Yiadom are one-year wonders though. Thomas was a third round pick in 2021, struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and then playing just 41 snaps in his second season in the league. He’s still only in his age 25 season and has upside, but he still didn’t play that big of a snap count as a part-time player in 2023 and could be overmatched in a bigger role in 2024, so he comes with a lot of downside.

Yiadom, meanwhile, was also a third round pick, back in 2018, but he struggled mightily with PFF grades in the 50s on an average of 467 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and then played just 98 snaps between 2021-2022, before surprisingly breaking out with a 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps with the Saints in 2023. He probably won’t be that good again in 2024, especially if he plays an expanded role, but even if he regresses significantly, he could remain a solid third cornerback. Yiadom, Thomas, and the rookie Green all come with big downsides, but they also have big upsides and, overall, they provide great depth as the 49ers’ 3rd, 4th, and 5th cornerbacks, in some order.

At safety, Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga were the starters to begin last season and both had impressive seasons, with PFF grades of 73.6 and 70.5 respectively. Hufanga suffered a season ending injury down the stretch and was limited to 577 snaps in 10 games on the season, but his replacement, 2023 3rd round pick Ji’Ayir Brown, played at an even higher level in his absence, finishing with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps. Gipson wasn’t re-signed this off-season, so Brown will start opposite Hufanga.

Brown is a projection to a season-long starter role and might not be as good as he was in limited action last season, but, even if he isn’t, he could still be a solid starter and he has the upside to be more than that. Hufanga, meanwhile, was a season-long starter in 2022 and had a 68.8 PFF grade so, assuming he’s over the injury that ended his 2023 season, he should be a solid starter in 2024. Hufanga, 2021 5th round pick, is also still only in his age 25 season and could have the upside for more. Even after losing Tashaun Gipson this off-season, the 49ers still should have a solid safety duo in Ji’Ayir Brown and Talanoa Hufanga.

Depth is a concern though, without Gipson. The 49ers drafted Malik Mustapha in the 4th round this year, but he’s probably too raw to start for an extended period of time in case of an injury to Brown or Hufanga. George Odum would be the veteran option, but he’s mostly been a special teamer in his career and has been middling at best on an average of 177 snaps per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. Perhaps the 49ers could move one of their cornerbacks to safety in case of an injury, as their cornerback room is much deeper. Overall, this is a talented secondary that should be above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The 49ers have come very close to winning it all the past two seasons and bring back almost their entire core from the past two seasons. They might not necessarily be the favorites to win it all, but they’re high up on the short list of teams who could win it all. Much is dependent on the Brandon Aiyuk contract/holdout situation, but it seems likely that he will suit up for the 49ers one way or another this season.

Update: Aiyuk has been re-signed long-term. The 49ers still have a concerning situation with Trent Williams wanting his contract redone, but it seems like the 49ers will resolve that sooner rather than later.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

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