Quarterback

The Falcons had a very stable quarterback situation from 2008-2021, with Matt Ryan consistently playing at an above average level, while only missing three total games due to injury across 14 seasons. The Falcons never quite got the supporting cast around him right, so they only made one Super Bowl in that span, which they lost, but that generally wasn’t Ryan’s fault. In fact, even in the season they made the Super Bowl they still had a below average defense, with the team being carried by Ryan in an MVP season.

The Falcons moved on from Ryan two off-seasons ago, trading him to the Colts for a third round pick, which proved to be a smart move, as Ryan went on to play one mediocre season in Indianapolis before retiring, but in the two seasons since losing Ryan, the Falcons have struggled to find an adequate replacement. In their first off-season without Ryan, the Falcons paired veteran journeyman Marcus Mariota with third round rookie Desmond Ridder. Mariota was mediocre while starting the first 13 games of the season and Ridder wasn’t any better when he took over as the starter for the final 4 games of the season.

The next off-season, the Falcons made Ridder their full-time starter, hoping for a second year leap from their young quarterback, and signed veteran Taylor Heinicke as the backup. That second year leap didn’t happen though and Ridder was benched on multiple occasions for Heinicke, who wasn’t much better. In total, the Falcons completed 61.7% of their passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions in 2023, good for a QB rating of 80.5 that ranked 27th in the NFL.

Fed up with mediocrity at the quarterback position and recognizing they were a quarterback away from being the favorite in the weak NFC South, which the Falcons had a shot at winning last season even with poor quarterback play, the Falcons made a big splash signing in free agency this off-season, poaching veteran Kirk Cousins away from the Vikings on a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual value. The Falcons then traded away Desmond Ridder to the Cardinals in a move that got them more wide receiver depth.

Cousins has completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.64 YPA, 252 touchdowns, and 91 interceptions in 136 starts over the past nine seasons, which would be a substantial upgrade under center for the Falcons, but he comes with some risk, now going into his age 36 season and coming off of a 2023 season ended by a torn achilles. Even if Cousins doesn’t decline in 2024, the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid elite quarterback money is concerning. 

The only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and still won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is just below that cap percentage threshold in year one of his contract, but he will almost definitely be above it for the remainder of his deal. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. Adding Cousins makes the Falcons the favorite to win the NFC South and they could even win a playoff game or two in the weak NFC, but it’s hard to imagine them competing at the highest level in Cousins’ tenure in Atlanta, and that’s even assuming he doesn’t decline, as an aging quarterback coming off of a significant injury.

In the draft, the Falcons made the very surprising decision to add another quarterback with their 8th overall pick, taking Michael Penix. In a vacuum, Penix was a good pick there, as he could develop into a franchise quarterback while he’s still on his cheap rookie deal, which would allow the Falcons to load up on talent around him and actually compete at the highest level for a Super Bowl, but when you pair his selection with the Cousins signing, the move is very strange. 

Cousins is guaranteed 100 million over the next two seasons, so the Falcons don’t have a clear path to get Penix onto the field until the cheap part of his rookie deal is halfway over, at which point the Falcons will only have one season to evaluate Penix before deciding whether or not to pick up his expensive 5th year option. Penix is also pretty NFL ready as far as quarterback prospects go and, if the Falcons liked him, they could have known that he would be available to them with the 8th overall pick, or by trading up just a couple spots, so the expensive signing of Cousins was pretty unnecessary and the Falcons could have used that money elsewhere, like on defense, which they mostly neglected this off-season. 

Additionally, if they liked Cousins enough to give him all that money, they could have used the 8th overall pick on defense, or traded down and gotten multiple defensive players, in an attempt to go all in with an aging veteran under center, rather than using a high draft pick on a player who is unlikely to make much of an impact over the next two seasons unless Cousins gets hurt or struggles so much that he is benched, in spite of his salary. The Falcons’ quarterback room is a lot better than it was a year ago and it’s a lot better than most team’s quarterback rooms, with two starting caliber options and Taylor Heinicke (84.2 QB rating in 29 career starts) still on the roster as an overqualified third quarterback, after taking a pay cut down to just 1.21 million, but from a team building and allocation of resources perspective, the Falcons’ quarterback decisions this off-season were strange.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Prior to selecting Penix in the first round in this year’s draft, the Falcons had used their last three first round picks on offensive skill position players, taking tight end Kyle Pitts 4th overall in 2021, wide receiver Drake London 8th overall in 2022, and running back Bijan Robinson 8th overall in 2023, but none of them have been able to reach their potential because of the Falcons’ quarterback situation and, subsequently, because of the run heavy nature of the Falcons’ offense over the past two seasons, with 1,081 rush attempts to 945 pass attempts combined in 2022 and 2023. 

In 2024, Pitts and London will be the centerpieces of the Falcons’ upgraded passing game, while Robinson figures to have a big passing game role as well, as he’s a very talented pass catcher for a running back, finishing with a 58/487/4 slash line and 1.16 yards per route run as a rookie, when he was third on the team in targets with 86. Pitts came into the league as one of the best pass catching tight end prospects in NFL history and was the highest drafted tight end ever. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with a 68/1026/1 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in 17 games in the final season of the Matt Ryan era, but, as the Falcons quarterback play has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, so has Pitts’ production, as he’s finished with slash lines of 28/356/2 in 10 games and 53/667/3 in 17 games in 2022 and 2023, with a yards per route run average of 1.51 over the past two seasons combined. 

Now with a significantly upgraded quarterback room and still only in his age 24 season with a massive upside, Pitts should have plenty of bounce back potential and still has time to develop into one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league for years to come. Drake London also has a huge upside, after posting slash lines of 72/866/4 and 69/905/2 with a combined 1.96 yards per route run average in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 23 season, with an improved quarterback room and a more pass heavy offense, London has a huge statistical upside in 2024.

The Falcons also made a significant financial investment in another wide receiver in free agency, signing ex-Bear Darnell Mooney to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal. Mooney had a thousand yard year in 2021, with a 81/1055/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient that season, averaging just 1.72 yards per route run and 7.54 yards per target and, in his other three seasons in the league, he only has 1.18 yards per route run and 6.99 yards per target, while averaging just 513 yards per season. Mooney never had good quarterback play with the Bears and, still only in his age 27 season, could have significant upside on a better offense in Atlanta, but the Falcons are guaranteeing him 27 million over the next two seasons, which is a lot of money to risk on the hope that Mooney will be significantly better in a better situation.

Behind Pitts, London, and Mooney, the rest of this receiving corps is thin and unsettled. Wide receivers Van Jefferson (356 snaps), Mack Hollins (343 snaps), and Scott Miller (267 snaps), as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith (653 snaps) and MyCole Pruitt (401 snaps) all played significant snaps last season and weren’t brought back for 2024. They weren’t a great group of supporting pass catchers, but Hollins and Pruitt averaged 1.56 and 1.75 yards per route run respectively in limited roles, Smith averaged 1.55 yards per route run and was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 50/582/3 slash line, and, while the Falcons made some additions to this receiving corps this off-season, they didn’t replace all of them and, as a result, have a pretty top-heavy group.

The third wide receiver job will likely either go to KhaDarel Hodge, a veteran who played 370 snaps for the Falcons last season, or Rondale Moore, a 2021 2nd round pick who the Falcons acquired from the Cardinals in exchange for Desmond Ridder. Hodge had just a 1.27 yards per route run average in a limited role last season and has a career 1.28 yards per route run average with 57 catches in 89 career games and a career high of 14 catches in a season, so Moore is probably the favorite for the job.

Moore is also a pretty underwhelming option though, as he hasn’t lived up to the potential he had when the Cardinals drafted him 49th overall three years ago, averaging just 1.17 yards per route run and 400 yards per season. He’s only in his age 24 season and could still have untapped upside, but, even still, he’s underwhelming as a #3 wide receiver. The Falcons also used a 6th round pick on wide receiver Casey Washington, who could work his way into a role as the season goes on, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option too.

At tight end, the Falcons signed ex-49ers backup tight end Charlie Woerner to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and he’ll be the #2 tight end behind Pitts, but he has just a 0.55 yards per route run average in his career with 11 catches in 65 games and will mostly just be used as a solid blocker. Expect the Falcons to funnel targets to Pitts, London, Mooney, and the running back Robinson, in a top heavy receiving corps that has a high upside, but that also would be in significant trouble if any of their top pass catchers missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Falcons won’t run the ball as much this season as they did a year ago, when they ranked third in the NFL in team carries with 522, but that will probably come much more at the expense of Tyler Allgeier, who had 186 carries a year ago, than Bijan Robinson, who had 214, and Robinson also figures to be more productive in the passing game than he was a year ago, due to the Falcons improved quarterback situation and increased passing volume. Robinson had a 4.52 YPC average as a rookie and has the upside to become one of the top all-around backs in the league in his second season in 2024, now on a much better offense than a year ago.

Allgeier only averaged 3.67 YPC last season, down significantly from 4.93 YPC on 210 carries as a 5th round rookie in 2022, but that was mostly because he didn’t have as many big plays, going from 13 carries of 15+ yards in 2022, which went for 316 yards (30.5% of his total) to just 3 carries of 15+ yards in 2023, which went for 72 yards (10.5% of his total). In terms of carry success rate, Allgeier only dropped from 51.9% to 48.4%. Allgeier also has a decent 1.16 yards per route run average in his career. Robinson is the better back and figures to be a true feature back in 2024, but Allgeier is a good backup to have.

The Falcons won’t need much depth behind Robinson and Allgeier, but they did use a 6th round pick on Jase McClellan, who will give them an insurance policy if either Robinson or Allgeier miss significant time with injury. He would probably be underwhelming if forced into a significant role in year one, but he’s not a bad 3rd option to have, behind a talented top-two. Overall, this is one of the best running back rooms in the NFL.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line has been the strength of this offense for the past few years and they bring back all five of their starters from a year ago, including three who have been starters for the Falcons for at least five straight seasons. Left guard Matthew Bergeron is the newest member of this offensive line and was also the Falcons’ worst offensive line starter a year ago, as the 2023 2nd round pick had a 59.1 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie last season. He has the upside to be significantly better in year two though and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he took a step forward and was at least a capable starter in 2024.

Center Drew Dalman is the second newest member of this offensive line. A 2021 4th round pick, Dalman was a backup as a rookie, but has started all 31 games he’s played in the two seasons since, jumping from a solid 65.9 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2022 to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023, excelling as a run blocker. Dalman is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and could regress a little bit this season, but he’s also only going into his age 26 season and could have permanently turned a corner as a player. Even if he hasn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter in 2024 and beyond.

The other three starters on this offensive line, left tackle Jake Matthews, right guard Chris Lindstrom, and right tackle Kaleb McGary are all former first round picks by the Falcons, Matthews going 6th in 2014 and Lindstrom and McGary going 14th and 31st respectively in 2019. Matthews has been highly consistent in his career, finishing above 70 in PFF in each of the past nine seasons in the league, starting with his second season in the league in 2015. His 71.2 PFF grade in 2023 was actually the worst since his rookie season and, now going into his age 32 season, it’s possible he’s on the decline, but he’s starting from a pretty high base point and has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter for another season.

Lindstrom is the best of the bunch, impressing early on in his career with PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league, before developing into one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, Lindstrom should remain one of the best guards in the league in 2024 and beyond. McGary, on the other hand, took a few years to develop, receiving mediocre grades of 53.0, 64.3, and 62.8 across his first three seasons in the league, actually getting benched on one occasion, but he took a big step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.6 PFF grade and didn’t take a big step back in 2023, with another impressive grade of 75.5. He seems to have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter and, still only in his age 29 season, he should have at least another prime season left in him.

The Falcons’ depth options remain the same as last year. Their best backup is tackle Storm Norton, who had a 68.3 PFF grade in three starts last season. Norton was a starter earlier in his career, making 15 starts in 2021, and he wasn’t bad with a 60.3 PFF grade, but he’s best off as a good swing tackle rather than a starter. At guard and center, the Falcons’ top reserves are less impressive, as backup center Ryan Neuzil is a 2021 undrafted free agent who was underwhelming with a 55.3 PFF grade in the first four starts of his career in 2023, when Dalman missed time with injury, while backup guard Kyle Hinton is a 2020 7th round pick who has played just 97 snaps in his career. Overall, the Falcons have an above average starting five on the offensive line with their biggest concern being depth.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons had defensive needs that they didn’t address this off-season, as their big free agent signing and their first round draft pick were both quarterbacks, leaving them little resources for the rest of the roster. The Falcons ranked 24th in defensive DVOA a year ago and there is reason to believe they’ve gotten worse on that side of the ball since then. One of those reasons is the loss of Calais Campbell, who had a 80.0 PFF grade on 712 snaps last season, excelling against the run and adding 6.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate, while splitting time between the edge and the interior in pass rush situations.

The Falcons also lost veteran edge defender Bud Dupree this off-season, although that isn’t as big of a loss, as he had a 56.0 PFF grade across 725 snaps, while pressuring the quarterback at just a 8.8% rate. To replace Dupree and Campbell’s edge snaps, the Falcons used a 3rd round pick on Bralen Trice, added veteran James Smith-Williams in free agency, and will probably give bigger snap counts to 2022 2nd round pick Arnold Ebiketie, 2023 3rd round pick Zach Harrison, and 2023 3rd round pick DeAngelo Malone, who saw snap counts of just 385, 343, and 3 respectively a year ago.

Ebiketie has the most upside of the aforementioned players. Not only was he the highest drafted of the bunch, but he has been pretty decent in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across 901 total snaps, while totaling 8.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Expect him to play a career high in snaps in 2024 and he could easily be at least a capable starter, with the upside for more. Harrison was also decent in his limited role as a rookie in 2023, with a 63.0 PFF overall grade, but he was much more effective against the run than as a pass rusher, with just a 7.9% pressure rate. He’ll also likely see an expanded role in 2024, but he could still primarily be a base package run stopper who comes off the field in obvious passing situations.

DeAngelo Malone, on the other end, has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing 219 snaps and managing just a 8.2% pressure rate. He still could have some untapped upside, but is mostly only in the mix for a role based on where he was drafted and the Falcons’ lack of depth at the edge defender position. James Smith-Williams, meanwhile, has played 437 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but the 2020 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while totaling just a career 7.2% pressure rate, and he is unlikely to have much, if any untapped upside left at this point. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of them play behind the rookie Bralen Trice, even if Trice is raw and could struggle in a significant rookie year role.

Veteran Lorenzo Carter remains and will probably continue to have a similar role as last season, when he played just 431 snaps. Carter has been a decent player throughout his career, with PFF grades over 60 in all six seasons in the league on an average of 559 snaps per season, including a 67.0 grade in 2023, but he’s also never finished above 70.7 for a season, which came back in 2019, and he’s a better run defender than pass rusher, with just 21.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 83 career games. The Falcons have some young players with upside, but overall this looks like an underwhelming position group, one that could have benefited from a more significant investment in the off-season.

Grade: C+

Interior Defender

The biggest investment the Falcons made on defense this off-season was using their second round pick on interior defender Ruke Orhorhoro. He will help replace Calais Campbell’s interior snaps, as well as the snaps left behind by Albert Huggins, who won’t be missed after a 47.8 PFF grade across 317 snaps in 2023. Orhorhoro profiles as a future starter and should be a useful rotational player as a rookie. The Falcons should also get a healthier year out of Grady Jarrett, who was limited to 318 snaps in 8 games by injury in 2023. 

Jarrett still had a 70.1 PFF grade in 2023 and he’s finished above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including seven seasons above 70, and he’s totaled 34 sacks, 85 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 135 career games, while playing the run at an above average level as well. However, Jarrett is now going into his age 31 season, so he might not play at the same level in 2024 as he did in 2023. Jarrett has already seemed to decline from his prime, when he had four straight seasons above 80 on PFF from 2017-2020, before maxing out at 71.3 over the past three seasons, and he could decline further in 2024. He should play more snaps than a year ago, but he might not play at the same level.

David Onyemata is also getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with an 83.3 PFF grade across 594 snaps in 2023, the 2nd highest PFF grade of his 8-year career, but it seems likely he won’t be quite as good again in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of the past seven seasons, playing the run well and totaling 27 sacks, 47 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate in 104 games over that stretch, but his age is becoming a big concern.

Onyemata, Jarrett, and Orhororo will be the Falcons’ top-3 interior defenders this season, but there is still room for deep reserve snaps behind them, which will likely to go Ta’Quon Graham, who played 364 snaps in 2023, and/or Brandon Dorius, another interior defender they drafted this year, selected in the 4th round. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has played 381 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and has mostly been unspectacular, playing the run decently, but managing just a 4.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Dorius, meanwhile, is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. The Falcons have an accomplished interior defender duo of David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett and a relatively high draft pick in Ruke Orhorhoro behind them, but Onyemata and Jarrett are getting older and Orhorhoro is only a rookie, so there are still some concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The personnel remains the same in the linebacking corps, but the Falcons should get a healthier season out of Troy Andersen. Andersen started week 1 and week 3 last season and played 139 of a possible 147 snaps in those two games, with a game missed due to injury in between, but then he suffered a season-ending injury after week 3. He’s not a guarantee to get his every down job back in 2024 though, as backup Nate Landman significantly outplayed him in his absence, with a PFF grade of 72.0 across 809 snaps, especially excelling against the run. Landman went undrafted in 2022 and played just 22 snaps as a rookie, so his impressive 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere and there’s a chance he regresses in 2024 or cedes the job back to Andersen, but Landman should at least be a high level backup. 

Andersen, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot more upside than Landman, but he struggled with a 40.2 PFF grade on 481 snaps as a part-time player in his rookie season and wasn’t much better in two games before getting hurt in 2023, receiving a 50.6 grade from PFF. He still has upside and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but Landman still seems like the better option to start, even if he regresses from his surprisingly impressive 2023 campaign. Another option is the Falcons platoon the two linebackers, with Landman playing in base packages, maximizing his abilities against the run, and Andersen as a sub package linebacker who plays in obvious passing situations. However it shakes out, it seems unlikely that either one will be as good in 2024 as Landman was in 2023.

Kaden Elliss remains as the other starter, locked in after an impressive 2023 season in which he had a 75.4 PFF grade across 1,082 snaps, playing well in coverage, against the run, and as a blitzer. That was a career high in snaps for the 2019 7th round pick, but he had a 81.5 PFF grade across 632 snaps in 2022, so his impressive season in an every down role in 2023 didn’t come out of nowhere. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season and relatively proven at this point, Elliss should remain an above average every down player for at least one more season in 2024. The Falcons also used a 5th round pick on JD Bertrand to give themselves even more depth in an overall pretty talented linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback is another position of need the Falcons could have addressed this off-season, but didn’t. Top cornerback AJ Terrell had a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and slot specialist Dee Alford also had a solid grade at 70.0, across 531 snaps, but he’s only an option on the slot and the other options the Falcons tried outside opposite Terrell all struggled last season, with Jeff Okudah, Clark Phillips, Mike Hughes, and Tre Flowers playing 596 snaps, 571 snaps, 333 snaps, and 200 snaps respectively and finishing with PFF grades in the 50s.

The Falcons only added Antonio Hamilton and Kevin King to the mix this off-season. Hamilton has had decent PFF grades of 65.4, 68.5, and 64.7 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 313, 420, and 559 respectively, with the latter being a career high for the 8-year veteran, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s nothing more than a backup option, while King is a former 2nd round pick, but he hasn’t played in two full seasons due to injuries and, before that, missed 29 games in the previous five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those five seasons, so he’s nothing more than a flier who could easily fail to make the final roster.

Clark Phillips and Mike Hughes remain from last season and the former is probably the favorite to start outside opposite Terrell. Phillips wasn’t horrible last season, with a 59.0 PFF grade in a part-time role, while starting five of the seven games he played, and he was only a 4th round rookie, so he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he could also be further exposed in a much bigger role in 2024. Hughes, meanwhile, is a former 1st round pick bust of the Minnesota Vikings, who has played just 387 snaps per season in six seasons in the league with four teams, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons, including the previous two. He’d likely only be a starting option if Phillips struggles and, in that case, Hughes would likely also struggle in a starting role.

Dee Alford was impressive on the slot last season and also had a decent 64.8 PFF grade across 248 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2022, but he’s probably too small at 5-11 175 to hold up in a significant role outside, so he’ll remain a solid slot specialist at best, albeit still an inexperienced one. Fortunately, the Falcons do at least have one good outside cornerback in AJ Terrell, a 2020 1st round pick who has received PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, and 74.6 in four seasons in the league, while starting all 61 games played. Only in his age 26 season in 2024, he should remain an above average starter and could potentially have more untapped upside.

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was probably safety Jessie Bates, who excelled with a 90.6 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among safeties. It wasn’t Bates’ first season as an elite safety, but he has been pretty inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 respectively and grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could repeat last season’s dominant performance, but he could also regress, perhaps significantly.

At the other safety spot, Richie Grant and DeMarcco Hellams will compete to start. A 2021 2nd round pick, Grant has started 32 games over the past two seasons, but he struggled with a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023 and lost his starting job late in the season to Hellams, even though Hellams was just a 7th round rookie. Hellams wasn’t bad in his limited action, with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps, but Grant was better in 2022 than he was in 2023, with a 64.9 PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took his starting job back and bounced back in 2024. If Hellams wins the job, he could continue being a capable starter, but he could also struggle, because he’s inexperienced and a projection to a bigger role. This isn’t a bad secondary, with a pair of high level talents in AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates, but it’s a bit of a top-heavy group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Falcons significantly upgraded their quarterback room this off-season by adding Kirk Cousins and then Michael Penix behind him, which should unlock an offense that has a lot of talent around the quarterback. However, Cousins isn’t an elite quarterback and the Falcons still have too many holes, especially on defense, to be considered a true Super Bowl contender. They should be considered the favorite to win the weak NFC South and, in the weaker NFC, they have a good chance to win a playoff game or two, which is a lot more than they’ve accomplished in recent years, but they’re not on the short list of teams who could win it all.

Update: The Falcons upgraded their defense with the additions of Matt Judon and Justin Simmons. They’re still not a top contender, but they could win a lot of regular season games, given that they have probably the weakest schedule in the league.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC South