Quarterback

When long-time Saints quarterback and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints were left in a tough situation. They had consistently borrowed future cap space to keep as much talent around Brees as possible in his later years, leading to a league best 49-15 regular season record from 2017-2020, but just three playoff victories and no Super Bowl appearances. Without Brees, the Saints could have opted to blow it up, go through a couple tough years, and reset their cap for the future. 

Instead, they opted to continue kicking the can down the road on their cap issues, in an attempt to remain relevant in the short-term, continuing to borrow future cap space. Now with three seasons in the books without Brees, that appears to have been the wrong choice. They haven’t been bad the past three seasons, but they haven’t been good either, combining for a 25-24 record with no playoff appearances and the future doesn’t look promising. 

The Saints had the 3rd oldest roster in the league in 2023, currently have the 6th oldest roster in the league heading into 2024, and are projected to be almost 100 million dollars over the cap in 2025, which will get increasingly difficult to continue kicking down the road, severely limiting their ability to field a talented roster in the future, especially as their core continues to age. It hasn’t helped that their recent drafts have not been good, especially at the top. Of the seven players they selected in the top-50 from 2020-2023, just one of them, wide receiver Chris Olave, played significant snaps in 2023 and finished above average on PFF. As a result of that, the Saints don’t have much in the way of promising young talent on cheap rookie contracts.

The Saints’ middling performance over the past few years has also kept them out of position to take a potential franchise quarterback atop the draft. Their initial attempts to replace Brees with cheaper veterans like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Trevor Siemian failed and, without the ability to add draft a promising quarterback, the Saints instead gave a big contract to aging veteran Derek Carr, who heads into his age 33 season in 2024, the second season of a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal.

Carr is not a bad quarterback, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 242 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in 159 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 68.4% completion, 7.08 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s not the kind of quarterback that can elevate a middling roster and he’s not getting any younger either, so it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point. The Saints have a pair of young quarterbacks behind him on the depth chart, 2023 4th round pick Jake Haener, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 5th round pick Spencer Rattler, but neither was remotely a high draft pick and it remains to be seen if either of them can even develop into a quality backup, let alone a potential future starter. Overall, it looks like the Saints are set for another season of middling at best play in 2024, with no long-term direction.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Saints’ high draft picks that hasn’t yet lived up to their draft slot in recent years is left tackle Trevor Penning, who has been limited to 541 snaps and six starts in two seasons since going 19th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, due to a combination of poor performance and injury. In fact, he’s been so underwhelming that the Saints are seemingly giving up on him already, using the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft on Taliese Fuaga. It wouldn’t be hard for Fuaga to be an upgrade on Andrus Peat, who had a 60.2 PFF grade as the Saints’ primary left tackle last season, before signing with the Raiders this off-season, but Fuaga is still just a rookie and could have growing pains in year one.

It’s possible Penning could still earn a starting job, either at left tackle, with Fuaga moving to guard, which he has the versatility to play, or Penning could potentially move to guard himself, to replace the now retired James Hurst, who had a 58.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Penning has a lot of talent and is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s too soon to completely write him off, but it’s very possible he’d continue struggling even if he did win a starting job and it’s more likely the Saints view him as the swing tackle now, behind Fuaga and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. 

Ramczyk has been a talented starter for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five seasons over 80, but, like most of the Saints’ talented players, he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 30 season in 2024 and it’s possible he’s already started to decline, as his 73.5 PFF grade in 2023 was a career worst. He would be declining from a high base point and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best days were behind him at this point or if he continued declining.

If Penning doesn’t start, the left guard job will likely go to 2023 4th round pick Nick Saldeveri, who played just 18 snaps as a rookie, or mediocre veteran Lucas Patrick, who is in his age 31 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including a 50.5 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Both Saldeveri and Patrick would almost definitely struggle as starters in 2024 and it’s possible both of them, along with possibly Penning, all see starts as the Saints try to find an answer at the position, an answer that’s probably not on the roster.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is another recent high draft pick that hasn’t really panned out. Ruiz has started 56 of the 62 games he’s played since the Saints selected him 24th overall in 2020, but he’s finished in the 50s on PFF in all four seasons, including a career worst 51.2 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Saints didn’t pick up his 5th year option for 2024, but they did extend him on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal at the beginning of last season, which seems like an overpay, given that he’s the 17th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could have untapped potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Center Erik McCoy is a highlight on this offensive line, as the 2019 2nd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (74 starts), including three seasons above 70. His 79.4 PFF grade in 2023 was a career best and he’s not necessarily going to be that good again in 2024, but he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he’s very much in the prime of his career, and he should remain at least an above average starter. The Saints have a couple bright spots on the offensive line in Erik McCoy and Ryan Ramczyk, but the latter is going into his 30s, and the rest of the group is underwhelming, with a rookie left tackle and likely below average starters at both guard positions.

Update: Ramczyk is not expected to play this season and may retire because of a nagging knee injury. This will hurt the Saints significantly and hurts their already underwhelming projection overall and on the offensive line, as Ramczyk was one of their best players and probably their best offensive lineman and now the Saints will have to start Trevor Penning in his absence.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receiver Chris Olave is the only high draft pick the Saints have made in the past few years that has panned out. Luckily, the 2022 #11 overall pick has panned out in a big way, with slash lines of 87/1123/5 and 72/1044/4 and a combined 2.23 yards per route run average over his first two seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, Olave’s best days could still be ahead of him and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2024 was his best season yet.

The Saints also found a steal in the 2022 draft with undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed flashed potential as a rookie with a 28/487/2 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average in a limited role. He wasn’t able to keep up that level of efficiency in a starting role in 2022, but he still had a solid season with a 46/719/5 slash line and a 1.67 yards per route run. He still only played 604 snaps last season, 40.3 snaps per game in 15 games, which was actually behind Michael Thomas, who averaged 49.0 snaps per game in 10 games. In five games when Thomas was out and Shaheed played, Shaheed averaged 42.8 snaps per game and had a 18/209/2 slash line, 61/711/7 over a 17-game season. With Thomas no longer with the team, Shaheed is likely to see a higher snap count and more receiving production in 2024.

Thomas only averaged 1.38 yards per route run last season with a 39/448/1 slash line, so he won’t be missed too much, but the Saints don’t have a good replacement for him. The third receiver job will likely go to 2023 6th round pick AT Perry, who had a 12/246/4 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average as a rookie, or Cedrick Wilson, a veteran who has been a mediocre reserve for most of his career, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and only surpassing 300 yards receiving once in six seasons in the league. Both are likely to be underwhelming options, even if they ultimately end up splitting snaps. The Saints also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Bub Means, who could work his way into a role down the stretch, though he would likely also struggle.

At tight end, Juwan Johnson (555 snaps), Foster Moreau (549 snaps), and Taysom Hill (425 snaps) all played roles last season and should play similar roles in 2023. Johnson was their primary receiving tight end, leading all Saints tight ends in catches, yards, and touchdowns. He only had a 37/368/4 slash line with a 1.19 yards per route run average though, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. He did have a better receiving year in 2022, with a 42/508/7 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has been underwhelming for most of his career, with a career 1.17 yards per route run average. The undersized 6-4 231 pounder is also a poor blocker.

Tayson Hill also primarily played in passing situations, although he’s a unique player. Not only did he have a 33/291/2 slash line with a 1.30 yards per route run average as a receiver, but he also carried the ball 81 times for 401 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.95 YPC) and threw 11 passes, completing 6 of them for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hill should have a similar role in 2024. The ultimate hybrid player throughout his career, Hill has 76 catches, 398 carries, and 298 pass attempts in the past six seasons, while averaging 346 snaps per season. Hill is now going into his age 34 season, so his athleticism could start to decline, but he should still be a useful situational player.

Foster Moreau, meanwhile, is mostly a blocking specialist, finishing the 2023 season with just a 21/193/1 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average. Moreau has mostly been a blocking specialist in five seasons in the league, but he’s a mediocre all-around tight end, averaging 1.25 yards per route run and mostly receiving mediocre run blocking grades. The Saints have a good #1 receiver in Chris Olave and a promising #2 receiver in Rashid Shaheed, but this is a top heavy receiving corps, with underwhelming tight end options and a lack of wide receiver depth.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara is used heavily in the passing game as well, as he had 86 targets, a 75/466/1 slash line, and a 1.73 yards per route run average in just 13 games last season. He’s had similar passing game usage throughout his career, averaging 91 targets and a 72/603/3 slash line per season in seven seasons in the league, with a career 1.96 yards per route run average. He also has 1,315 carries for 5,829 yards and 54 touchdowns (4.43 YPC) as a runner in his career.

That being said, Kamara averaged a career low 3.86 YPC on 180 carries last season though, along with a career low 2.51 yards per carry after contact, a career low 5.42 yards per target, and a career low 6.21 yards per catch, and now he heads into his age 29 season with 1,820 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to slow down significantly, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to have underwhelming averages. Like many of the Saints’ top players, Kamara is getting up there in age and could be past his prime.

The Saints used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a potential future replacement for Kamara in Kendre Miller. Miller was 4th on the team in carries as a rookie with just 41, behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill, but Miller was limited to 8 games by injuries and, now healthier and in his second season in the league, he should see an expanded role, probably at the expense of Williams, who averaged just 2.89 YPC to Miller’s 3.80 YPC in 2023. Miller also flashed potential as a pass catcher with a 10/117/0 slash line and a 2.17 yards per route run average and he could have an expanded role as a receiver as well in 2024.

Jamaal Williams has been better in the past than he was last season, but his career average is just 3.88 YPC on 1,021 carries and he’s an underwhelming pass catcher, with a career average of 1.02 yards per route run. He has a solid 50.4% carry success rate in his career, but has managed just 21 carries over 15+ yards in his career, so he’s best as a short yardage specialist. He’s also going into his age 29 season now and his best days could be behind him. If it wasn’t for his 3.85 million dollar salary being guaranteed, the Saints likely would have moved on from him this off-season. This isn’t a bad backfield, but feature back Alvin Kamara seems to be slowing down, Jamaal Williams is just a short yardage specialist, and promising young running back Kendre Miller is still inexperienced.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints also have many aging key players on defense. Edge defender Cameron Jordan has been one of their best defensive players for years and is coming off of a solid 2023 season in which he had a 73.5 PFF grade on 770 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and his 2023 PFF grade was his lowest since 2014. In his prime from 2015-2021, Jordan exceeded 80 on PFF in all seven seasons, excelling against the run and adding 78 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 112 games, but he hasn’t been the same player the past two seasons. His run defense has remained impressive, but he has managed just 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 33 games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline even further in 2024, both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, given his advanced age.

Fellow starter Carl Granderson is at least in his prime in his age 28 season, but he’s also a better run stopper than pass rusher. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a few years to develop, before posting a 80.4 PFF grade on 480 snaps in 2022 and a 74.1 PFF grade on 874 snaps in 2023, but he has totaled just 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 33 games over those two seasons. He would be best as a pure base package player who plays sparingly in obvious passing situations.

With Jordan aging and Granderson being a middling at best pass rusher, the Saints upgraded this position group with the one major free agent signing they could afford this off-season, bringing in Chase Young on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young is only in his age 25 season and was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s consistently had durability problems, missing 24 games in four seasons in the league, while never once playing in every game, which is why his 5th year option was declined and he hit free agency this off-season. 

Young has been effective when on the field, exceeding 70 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, playing the run at a high level and adding 16.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 43 games, and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy for a whole season and put it all together, but because he’s only on a one-year deal, his contract doesn’t have any long-term upside. Even if he plays well this season, it will be for a Saints team that is unlikely to go on a deep playoff run and then the Saints would have to pay a higher price to keep him long-term next off-season, one they’re highly unlikely to be able to afford, given their cap situation. 

The Saints have attempted to find a long-term replacement for Jordan in the draft, using a 2021 1st round pick on Payton Turner and a 2023 2nd round pick on Isaiah Foskey, but both have been very underwhelming thus far in their careers. Turner has played just 340 snaps in three seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, while Foskey was unable to earn a role as a rookie, playing just 84 nondescript snaps. Foskey is still only going in his second season in the league and could take a step forward in year two and Turner may still have some theoretical upside as well, but Turner is running out of time to make good on that upside and both would need to take a big step forward to even be useful rotational players in 2024.

With Young being added to the mix this off-season, Turner and Foskey will compete for deep reserve roles with veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon, who was decently effective on a snap count of 406 in 2023, receiving a 67.7 PFF grade and totaling 3.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher. However, that was the first season of his 7-year veteran that he received a grade above 60 from PFF and exceeded 400 snaps played in the same season and he now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t as effective in 2024 as he was last season. This is actually a pretty strong position group overall, but Cameron Jordan is aging, Chase Young is injury prone, Carl Granderson is much better against the run than as a pass rusher, and none of their depth options are guaranteed to be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another recent high draft pick that hasn’t panned out yet for the Saints is interior defender Bryan Bresee, a first round pick in 2023. Bresee was a solid pass rusher as a rookie with 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate, but he was horrendous against the run and, as a result, had an overall grade of 45.5 from PFF across 539 total snaps. Breese is still only going into his second season in the league and has plenty of time to make good on his upside, but he would need to take a big step forward against the run in 2024 to be a reliable starter.

Nathan Shepherd also struggled in 2023, with a 47.5 PFF grade on 593 snaps. That’s not a surprise, as that was a career high in snaps for the 6-year veteran. Shepherd has been better in the past in smaller roles, but the Saints don’t have much of a choice but to give him a big role again in 2024 and, on top of that, he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t continue struggling this season. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate last season, but, like Bresee, he also struggled mightily against the run.

Khalen Saunders was the Saints’ best all-around interior defender by default last season, with a 61.6 PFF grade on 522 snaps, holding up decently against the run and adding a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His 2023 performance wasn’t bad, but it’s concerning when he’s your best interior defender. A 3rd round pick in 2019 by the Chiefs, Saunders took a few years to develop, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade on 421 snaps in 2022 and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he should continue being a capable all-around player in 2024.

Depth behind the Saints’ top-3 interior defenders is also a big concern. The Saints used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Khristian Boyd, but he would almost definitely struggle if he played a significant rookie year role. They also added veteran Kendal Vickers in free agency, but he’s played just 602 snaps in the past four seasons, while finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons. With more depth on the edge than the interior, the Saints will probably use three defensive ends together in sub packages frequently, with one of them lined up in the interior. Unless they get a breakout year from 2023 1st round Bryan Breese, expect the Saints’ interior defender group to be very underwhelming in 2024.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Top linebacker Demario Davis is also getting up there in age, going into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with a 89.6 PFF grade across 1,074 snaps in 2024, the second best season-long PFF grade of his career and his seventh straight season over 70, but he could decline significantly at any point even his advanced age and if it happens in 2024 that would be a big blow to this defense. Pete Werner was the Saints’ other every down linebacker in 2023, but he wasn’t nearly as good, with a 57.5 PFF grade across 919 snaps.

A 2021 2nd round pick, Werner showed promise in smaller roles in his first two seasons in the league, with a 79.9 PFF grade across 394 snaps as a rookie and a 64.7 PFF grade across 596 snaps in 2022, but he couldn’t translate that to a bigger role in 2023. He’s only going into his age 25 season though, so he could still have untapped upside and take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024. With Demario Davis likely to regress at least somewhat, the Saints will need Werner to step up to compensate, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints signed Willie Gay to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season to provide competition for Werner or to serve as the third linebacker in base packages if Werner keeps his job. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Gay has shown some promise in his career, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, while maxing out at 625 snaps in a season and averaging 484 snaps per season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could have untapped upside, but he’s coming off of a 2023 season in which he had a 53.3 PFF grade across his career high in snaps, which is why he had to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency.  

The Saints also drafted Jaylan Ford in the 5th round of this year’s draft to give them more depth and a potential long-term successor for Davis, but he’s unlikely to see many snaps as a rookie and would likely struggle if he did. Demario Davis significantly elevates an otherwise middling linebacking corps, with both Pete Werner and Willie Gay being underwhelming options, but Davis’ age is becoming a big concern and the Saints would be in trouble defensively if he declined significantly this season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety Tyrann Mathieu is another talented player the Saints have who is getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, his 11th straight season above 60 on PFF and his 7th season above 70, but that was the third best single season grade of his career and it would be a surprise if he was able to repeat that again in 2024, given his age. He should still remain at least an above average starter even if he does decline, but any noticeable decline from him would be a hit to this secondary and his age is becoming a significant concern.

Mathieu will start next to Jordan Howden, who was decent in 567 snaps (7 starts) in 2023, with a 67.0 PFF grade, despite being just a 5th round rookie. Marcus Maye was supposed to be their primary starter opposite Mathieu last season, but he was limited to 7 games by injuries and suspension and he was mediocre anyway, with a 57.6 PFF grade. With Maye gone, the only real competition Howden has for a starting job is Johnathan Abram, but Abram is probably not a real candidate to start. 

Abram was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2019, but he’s been a major bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 57.1 PFF grade in just 209 snaps last season. Now in his age 28 season, it’s unlikely Abram has any untapped upside, so he will remain a backup caliber player and a mediocre one at that. Howden is still a projection to being a season-long starter and it’s possible he regresses and shows why he wasn’t a high draft pick, but he’s the best option the Saints have opposite Mathieu.

At cornerback, Marshon Lattimore remains their de facto #1 cornerback. He’s relatively young for a core player on this team, only in his age 28 season, but he’s had a lot of injuries in his career, missing 25 games in seven seasons in the league, including 17 over the past two seasons combined, and those injuries might have permanently sapped his abilities somewhat. He finished above 70 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, but he’s fallen to 64.7 and 67.4 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s young enough that he has bounce back potential in 2024 if he can stay healthy and if injuries haven’t permanently sapped his abilities, but those are big ifs, so it’s very possible he remains a decent, but unspectacular starter who is likely to miss significant time at some point.

Fortunately, Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo had impressive seasons last year to make up for Lattimore’s injuries and regression. Yiadom had an 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps, while Adebo had a 78.6 PFF grade across 948 snaps. Yiadom is no longer with the team though, signing with the 49ers in free agency, while Adebo is a one-year wonder who could regress. Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he struggled with PFF grades of 60.3 and 49.1 across snap counts of 851 and 814 respectively in his first two seasons in the league and, even if he doesn’t completely regress to that level, he might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Lattimore and Adebo are likely locked into starting roles, leaving the third cornerback job to either Alontae Taylor or second round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry. Taylor was a second round pick back in 2022, but he’s another recent high draft pick of the Saints who has yet to pan out, receiving PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 across snap counts of 663 and 950 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He still has time to develop, but he has a long way to go to even be a decent third cornerback and the Saints seem to be getting impatient with him, taking McKinstry as a potential alternative. McKinstry could have growing pains as a rookie, but still might be the favorite for the #3 cornerback job. Given Lattimore’s injury history though, it’s likely both Taylor and McKinstry make starts at some point this season. Overall, this isn’t a bad secondary, but they have some concerns.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints have been a middling team over the past few seasons and this year they might not even be that good because they haven’t drafted well in recent years and, as a result, most of their top players are getting up there in age. Their schedule and division should also be tougher after facing one of the easiest schedules and playing in the weakest division in the league a year ago. They should have gone through a complete rebuild after Drew Brees retired, but instead they are stuck in NFL purgatory with no clear way to get any better long-term, given their lack of long-term financial flexibility. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Saints after I finish all of my previews.

Update: The Saints have a relatively easy schedule, but their roster got significantly weaker when they lost Ryan Ramczyk for the season with injury.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC South