Quarterback

The Buccaneers went all-in on their three seasons with Tom Brady, aggressively borrowing against future cap space to keep as much talent around Brady as possible. The Buccaneers went 32-18 in the regular season in those three seasons, with five playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory, but when Brady retired last off-season, the Buccaneers were forced to go in a new direction. They could have continued being aggressive and continued borrowing against future cap space to keep payroll as high as possible, in an attempt to remain relevant, but instead they started a little bit of a teardown and rebuild process to try to improve their long-term cap situation. 

The Buccaneers kept several key players, but moved on from others and, overall, looked noticeably worse than the year prior, even before considering that they no longer had Tom Brady under center. Without a high draft pick or significant cap space to use on a replacement for Brady, the Buccaneers took a chance on a reclamation project in Baker Mayfield on an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and had him compete for the starting job with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who entered the league with upside, but had only thrown nine passes in his first two seasons in the league and underwhelmed behind the scenes. Overall, their quarterback room looked like one of the worst in the league going into last season.

However, Mayfield surprised in a big way in his first season in Tampa Bay, completing 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while leading the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record, a division title, and a playoff victory. This off-season, the Buccaneers had a decision to make on Mayfield long-term and opted to keep him on a 3-year, 100 million dollar deal, a big raise over last season, but a necessary contract to keep him after his performance in 2023.

Mayfield’s history of inconsistency is still concerning though. He isn’t a complete one-year wonder, as the 94.6 QB rating he had last season was his third season over 90 in QB rating in six seasons in the league, but in his other three seasons, he has combined for 59.9% completion, 6.99 YPA, 49 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, a QB rating of just 80.2 in 40 starts. In addition to potential regression from Mayfield, another concern for the Buccaneers is that they were lucky to have the success they had a year ago. Not only did they play in the weakest division in football in 2023, a division that should be better this season with Kirk Cousins joining the Falcons, but they also had a -0.33 yards per play differential and a -2.75% first down rate differential. 

The Buccaneers did win a playoff game, but they also got lucky with that, as they faced an Eagles team that was in complete freefall at the end of the season. If the Buccaneers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely have to be better than they were in 2023 and that doesn’t appear to be the case for this team. With Baker Mayfield’s new expensive contract and lingering cap issues from the Brady era, the Buccaneers didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season to improve this roster. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, this team likely will in terms of win total and, if he does regress significantly, the Buccaneers will have a hard time being competitive, even in the weaker NFC.

Mayfield will continue being backed up by Kyle Trask, who still barely has any NFL experience, adding just one more pass attempt to his career total in 2023. He’s still only in his age 26 season and came into the league with a lot of upside, so he’s not a bad backup option, but there are also much better backups than him around the league. If he had to start in Mayfield’s absence for an extended period of time, he could easily struggle, which would make it hard for this Buccaneers’ team to consistently win games.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The strength of this offense last season was their top-2 wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who were one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2023. That was actually the 4th time in the past five seasons that Evans and Godwin had both surpassed 1000 yards receiving in the same season, with the one exception being a season in which Godwin still had 840 yards receiving, despite being limited to 12 games by injuries.

Evans has actually surpassed 1000 yards receiving in all ten seasons of his career, shattering the previous record to start a career. Over those ten seasons, Evans has averaged a 76/1168/9 slash line per season, with 2.06 yards per route run, while missing just nine total games. Evans is now going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, possibly even this season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that, even if he does decline, he should remain an above average receiver and could possibly still surpass 1000 yards receiving for the 11th straight season. The Buccaneers kept him as a free agent this off-season on a 2-year, 41 million dollar deal.

Godwin is younger, still only going into his age 28 season, and, while he hasn’t been as good as Evans in his career, he still has an average of 1.94 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league and, if Evans declines noticeably this season, Godwin could easily end up as the Buccaneers’ de facto #1 receiver. Barring a massive decline from Evans, he and Godwin should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league again in 2024.

The rest of this receiving corps is still a big concern though, as the Buccaneers were unable to make significant upgrades to what was a very thin group a year ago. Running back Rachaad White was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 64/549/3 slash line and he only averaged 1.22 yards per route run. Tight end Cade Otton was fourth on the team with a 47/455/4 slash line, an underwhelming total considering he played 1,063 total snaps, most in the NFL by a tight end. He averaged just 0.80 yards per route run and 6.79 yards per target. Trey Palmer, their 3rd receiver, was fifth on the team with a 39/385/3 slash line and he averaged just 0.84 yards per route run and 5.66 yards per target. After Palmer, the Buccaneers didn’t have another pass catcher with at least 100 yards receiving. 

White is an above average pass catcher for a running back, averaging 1.13 yards per route run as a rookie in 2022 and producing as a receiver in college as well, but it’s a concern when a running back is your third option in the passing game. Otton is a 2022 4th round pick who could theoretically be better in year three in 2024, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting tight end, with just 0.82 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. He’ll continue being backed up by Ko Kieft, a 2022 6th round pick who has caught just 8 passes in two seasons in the league with 0.73 yards per route run.

Trey Palmer could remain the #3 receiver, but he’ll at least have some competition for his job, which is good because he was only a 6th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and doesn’t have a high upside. In this year’s draft, the Buccaneers used a third round pick on Jalen McMillan, who could have a big role in year one. He could struggle through growing pains, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Palmer, both in the short-term and in the long-term.

The Buccaneers also signed veteran Sterling Shepard in free agency. He has a decent 1.45 yards per route run average in his career, but he missed 34 of 66 possible games from 2019-2022, fell to 0.63 yards per route run and 2.59 yards per target in 2023, and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’d be a very underwhelming #3 receiver and isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. The Buccaneers have a great wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the rest of this receiving corps is a mess, which is a concern and would especially be a concern if either Evans or Godwin missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Buccaneers’ running game was also a big weakness last season, as they ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.44. Run blocking was a big part of the problem, as they ranked 29th on PFF in terms of team run blocking grade, but their running backs were part of the problem as well. Lead back Rachaad White averaged just 3.64 YPC with 6 touchdowns on 272 carries and had just 2.53 yards per carry after contact with just 39 broken tackles, giving him a below average elusive rating of 45.9. A 3rd round pick in 2022, White also only averaged 3.71 yards per carry with an elusive rating of 31.3 as a rookie. He’s only in his age 25 season and could take a step forward in year three, but his career is off to an underwhelming start.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers won’t have much choice but to give White a big role again, only adding 4th round rookie Bucky Irving to the mix this off-season. Irving is a good pass catcher and can provide a change of pace, so he will probably see a few touches per game as the backup in his rookie season, but I wouldn’t expect more than that from him. The Buccaneers also have incumbent backup Chase Edmonds, who was second among Buccaneers running backs with 49 carries last season, averaging 3.59 YPC, while averaging just 0.99 yards per route run. 

Edmonds has averaged 4.38 YPC and 1.14 yards per route run in his career, but he’s never had more than 159 touches in a season, with an average of 101 touches per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 28 season, which is relatively old for a running back, and he has a largely redundant skill set to Irving, who is likely to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Aside from Irving and Edmonds, the Buccaneers’ only other running backs on the roster are 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who turned 15 rookie year carries into just 23 yards, as well as 2024 undrafted free agents DJ Williams and Ramon Jefferson, who are long shots to make the roster, even in a thin position group. Overall, this is one of the worst running back groups in the league.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggled mightily in run blocking last season, but they were actually a solid offensive line in pass protection, ranking 10th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The strength of this line is the tackle position. Tristan Wirfs was one of the best left tackles in the league with a 81.1 PFF grade. It was his first season on the left side, but the 2020 1st round pick previously excelled at right tackle, with PFF grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 across his first three seasons in the league. Still only in his age 25 season, Wirfs should remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come and could possibly have further untapped upside.

In Wirfs’ old spot at right tackle, the Buccaneers got a breakout year from 2022 2nd round pick Luke Goedeke, who had a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Goedeke struggled mightily as a rookie, with a 43.7 PFF grade in 8 starts, but all of those starts except one came at guard and Goedeke seemed to be a lot more comfortable on the outside. It’s possible he regresses in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain an above average right tackle, with the upside to potentially be even better in 2024 and beyond. Wirfs and Goedeke will be backed up again by Justin Skule, who has only had to play 35 snaps over the past three seasons, but who made 12 starts in 2019 and 2020, with a 62.3 PFF grade across 545 snaps and a 45.4 PFF grade across 255 snaps respectively. He’s a middling swing tackle and the Buccaneers will obviously be hoping he remains on the bench for most of the season again.

While the Buccaneers’ tackles played well in 2023, the interior of this offensive line was a big weakness in 2023. Center should be a lot better in 2024, as the Buccaneers will be replacing Robert Hainsey, who had a 52.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, with first round pick Graham Barton, who figures to be a big upgrade right away. The Buccaneers will also be hoping for more out of a 2023 2nd round pick at right guard, Cody Mauch, who had a 44.7 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but has the upside to be better in year two. He has a long way to go to even be an average starter though and could easily continue struggling in 2024.

At left guard, the Buccaneers will likely continue getting poor play. Aaron Stinnie, who had a 56.6 PFF grade across 717 snaps, and Matt Feiler, who had a 54.7 PFF grade across 386 snaps, are no longer with the team, but their replacement options, veteran free agent additions Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, are equally underwhelming options. Bredeson started 16 games for the Giants in 2023, but struggled mightily with a 42.1 PFF grade. The 2020 4th round pick has started 25 games in four seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. Opeta, meanwhile, has just 10 starts in five seasons in the league, with 6 of them coming in 2023, when he had a 53.2 PFF grade. 

Bredeson’s 1-year deal is worth a little more, 3 million vs. 1.375 million, so he should be considered the favorite for the job, but both players figure to struggle and it’s possible both players see starts as the Buccaneers try to find a solution at the position. The Buccaneers could also try Robert Hainsey at guard and he was better as a 17-game starter in 2022 (66.7 PFF grade) than he was in 2023 when he struggled, but he’s only ever played center at the professional level. The Buccaneers could also keep Hainsey at center and try the rookie Graham Barton at guard, but they seem to prefer him at center. Either way, the Buccaneers are likely to have at least one position of significant weakness upfront, possibly two if Cody Mauch can’t take a big step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

With limited financial flexibility this off-season, the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Shaq Barrett, ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024. Barrett was set to be in his age 32 season this season, so the decision to move on from him made some sense, but he was still coming off of a good season and will be missed. He only had 4.5 sacks, but added 7 hits and a 13.8% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall PFF grade of 75.3 across 651 snaps.

To replace Barrett, the Buccaneers used a second round pick on Chris Braswell and will probably give expanded roles to 2021 1st round pick Joe Tyron-Shoyinka and 2023 3rd round pick Yaya Diaby, who are both only going into their age 25 seasons and could have untapped upside. Diaby played 515 snaps as a rookie last season and had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, while Tyron-Shoyinka has received PFF grades of 51.5, 67.1, and 65.5 across an average of 620 snaps played per season through three seasons in the league. They’ll need to take a step forward to be anything more than decent starters in 2024, but both have to upside to do that. The rookie Braswell also has a high upside and, though he could have growing pains as a rookie, he could still be useful in a situational role.

The Buccaneers also bring back veteran Anthony Nelson, after he had a 60.2 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season. That’s largely in line with what the 2019 4th round pick has done in every season for his 5-year career to date, averaging 375 snaps per season and finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons. He only has a career 7.3% pressure rate, but he’s an above average run stopper who should be useful as a situational run stopper in base packages. Nelson, Diaby, Tyron-Shyonika, and Braswell should all have significant roles in a position group that has upside, but that could struggle to replace Shaq Barrett, their best edge defender a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Buccaneers’ bring back all of their key personnel from a year ago and they should all play similar roles. Vita Vea led the position group in 606 snaps and was by far the best of the bunch, with a 78.5 PFF grade. That was in line with his average season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2018, as he has averaged 536 snaps per season, while surpassing 70 on PFF in five of those six seasons. A solid run stuffer at 6-4 347, Vea is also a surprisingly good pass rusher for his size, with 23.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 79 career games. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Vea in 2024.

The rest of this group struggled a year ago, as Vea was their only interior defender who finished above 60 on PFF, but they do have a couple young players who could take a step forward in 2024. Calijah Kancey was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 46.6 PFF grade as a rookie. He was a decent interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but was horrendous against the run, which pushed his overall grade down. 

Kancey will likely always be a much better pass rusher than run stopper, but he has the upside to be significantly better in both aspects this year in his second season in the league. Logan Hall, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He struggled mightily as a rookie with a 35.3 PFF grade across 403 snaps and was only better by default in 2023, with a 54.2 PFF grade across 542 snaps, but he’s still only in his age 24 season and came into the league with a high upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in his third season in the league and was at least a capable starter.

Veterans Greg Gaines and William Gholston remain as reserves, after playing 473 snaps and 244 snaps a year ago. Gaines had a 51.6 PFF grade, which was down from his previous two seasons as a starter with the Rams, when he had PFF grades of 67.9 and 59.1 across snap counts of 780 and 731 respectively. Still in his age 28 season, Gaines could bounce back in 2024, but he’ll likely remain a reserve regardless. Gholston, meanwhile, is going into his 12th season in the league and his age 33 season, so he’s probably getting to the end of his line, but he’s been a capable run stopper for most of his career and could remain a capable run stopper in a limited situational role for another season. This is the same group of interior defenders as a year ago, when they all struggled except Vita Vea, but they could get more positive contributions from their young players Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall in 2024.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Buccaneers didn’t retain Devin White in free agency this off-season, after five seasons as an every down linebacker in Tampa, but that isn’t a big loss because he struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade across 893 snaps in 14 games last season. The Buccaneers don’t have a good replacement for him though. In White’s old spot, it will either be KJ Britt, SirVocea Dennis, or JJ Russell, or possibly some combination of the three in a rotation. All three are highly inexperienced. 

Dennis was a 5th round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, but only across 101 snaps. Britt was a 5th round pick in 2021 and showed some promise on 160 snaps last season, but he has only played 234 total snaps in three seasons in the league. Russell went undrafted in 2022 and has played 117 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. There is some upside here, but it’s also very possible that all of them could struggle in an extended role. 

The Buccaneers did bring back Lavonte David as a free agent and he’s been an above average every down linebacker for them for a long-time, but he’s now going into his age 34 season. He still had a 73.4 PFF grade across 956 snaps in 15 games in 2023, his tenth finish over 70 in twelve seasons in the league, all with the Buccaneers. He’s also finished above 60 on PFF in every season in the league, with five seasons above 80. It’s possible he could avoid declining for another season, but at his age, the possibility of a significant decline is a real concern, especially since the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is highly inexperienced. They need David to continue playing at a high level to elevate the rest of this position group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Buccaneers also parted ways with long-time starting cornerback Carlton Davis this off-season. Davis is coming off of a down year with a 58.2 PFF grade across 715 snaps in 12 games and the Buccaneers saved 14.5 million and got a third round pick by trading him to the Lions, but they didn’t really replace him and will be relying on young cornerbacks taking on bigger roles in his absence. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien, a 2022 5th round pick and a 2023 undrafted free agent, played 784 snaps and 718 snaps respectively last season and will likely see expanded roles in 2024, playing in three cornerback sets along with Jamel Dean, a long-time starter who played 711 snaps while starting all 13 games he played last season.

Izien flashed potential with a 66.8 PFF grade last season, but the fact that he went undrafted a year ago can’t be completely ignored at this point and it wouldn’t surprise me if he regressed in 2024, especially in an expanded role. McCollum, on the other hand, struggled last season with a 52.1 PFF grade, after a 46.3 PFF grade on 278 snaps as a rookie, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he never developed into even a capable starter. Dean, meanwhile, had a 68.3 PFF grade in 2023 and finished above 70 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should continue playing at an above average level in 2024, although it’s worth noting he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league and will probably miss at least some time again in 2024.

The Buccaneers did add some veteran depth at the cornerback position this off-season, signing Tavierre Thomas and Bryce Hall, but it’s likely that neither are real candidates for a starting job. Thomas has PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 over the past three seasons, but on snap counts of just 639, 409, and 352 and he’s never played more snaps than that in any season in the league. He could see a situational role as a slot specialist, but he doesn’t have much experience playing on the outside. Hall, meanwhile, is a 2020 5th round pick who saw significant action early in his career and was serviceable, with PFF grades of 59.9 and 63.2 on snap counts of 547 and 1,171, but he’s only seen 153 snaps as a reserve over the past two seasons combined. He could probably be a decent starter in a pinch, but he’ll likely remain a reserve to begin the season.

The Buccaneers’ best defensive player is probably safety Antoine Winfield, who excelled with a position leading 91.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023. That was the best season of his career, but the 2020 2nd round pick not a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 86.1 and 77.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he could easily continue being one of the top safeties in the league in 2024 and for years to come. The Buccaneers rightfully rewarded him with a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar contract this off-season after franchise tagging him, which makes him the highest paid defensive back in the league in terms of average annual salary.

At the other safety spot, free agent acquisition Jordan Whitehead figures to start, after signing for 9 million over 2 years this off-season. Ryan Neal (580 snaps) and Dee Delaney (449 snaps) split snaps opposite Winfield last season and they were an underwhelming duo, with Neal struggling (46.6 PFF grade) and Delaney being average (63.4 PFF grade). It wouldn’t be hard for Whitehead to be an upgrade, after starting all 64 games he’s played in the past four seasons with solid PFF grades of 66.3, 74.9, 66.1, and 68.2 respectively. The Buccaneers also added additional safety depth by drafting Tykee Smith in the 3rd round and he could have a situational role in obvious passing situations. The Buccaneers have some concerns at the cornerback position, but this is a pretty good secondary overall, led by dominant safety Antoine Winfield.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers were a surprising playoff qualifier a year ago, but they could easily take a big step back in terms of win total this season. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Buccaneers were a mediocre team a year ago, even before you take into account their weak schedule. This season, their schedule is tougher, their division is stronger, and their roster is about the same, if not worse than a year ago, especially if quarterback Baker Mayfield regresses, a strong possibility, considering his inconsistent history. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, it seems unlikely this team will qualify for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC South