Quarterback

Since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns have started 38 different quarterbacks, by far the most in the league over that time period. Baker Mayfield led them to a playoff victory in 2020, but he struggled in 2021 and got sent away the following off-season for a late round draft pick, with the Browns opting to try to shoot higher at the position by sending away three first round picks for Deshaun Watson. Watson was the 12th overall pick in 2017 and started his career by completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 53 starts across his first four seasons in the league, while adding 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 307 carries. He was especially good in the final year of that stretch in 2020, completing 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while averaging 4.93 YPC and rushing for 3 touchdowns on 90 carries.

However, off-the-field issues kept him out all of 2021 and he was set to miss a big chunk of the 2022 season as well, so it was a surprise how much the Browns were still willing to give up for him, even before you consider the moral and PR issues of acquiring someone like Watson. Watson ended up missing the first 11 games of 2022, but he also wasn’t his usual self in the 6 games he did play, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with 4.86 YPC and a touchdown on 36 carries. That underwhelming performance continued into 2023, in a season in which he was also limited to just 6 games, this time by injury. In those 6 games, Watson completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 5.46 YPC and a touchdown on 26 carries.

The worst part of Watson’s struggles thus far with the Browns is they have legitimately been a quarterback away from being contenders, especially in 2023. Despite his struggles, Watson is 8-4 as the Browns starting quarterback, including 5-1 in 2023. On top of that, one of the quarterbacks who the Browns used in Watson’s absence, veteran Joe Flacco, was 4-1, despite being signed off the couch mid-season and completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, good for a middling QB rating of 90.2. 

The Browns had the league’s second best defense in terms of DVOA last season and they have supporting talent on offense, so they don’t even need elite quarterback play to be contenders. That should remain the case in 2024, when they bring back 20 of the 22 players who saw at least 500 snaps on offense or defense, with the two exceptions not being key players. The Browns should also be healthier and not just at quarterback, after having the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2023. Flacco is no longer with the team, but if Watson can stay healthy and at least somewhat bounce back to his prime form, still only in his age 29 season, the Browns should at least be playoff qualifiers, even in the loaded AFC.

If Watson misses more time, the job would go to Jameis Winston, a veteran free agent signing from this off-season. Winston was the #1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 7.67 YPA, 141 touchdowns, and 99 interceptions in 80 career starts, but only 10 of those starts have come in the past four seasons and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so he’s a backup at this stage of his career. 

Winston is not a bad backup though and, if he needed to start for a few games, the Browns’ supporting cast is good enough that they can win some games even with their backup quarterback under center, similar to how they won with Flacco a year ago. The Browns’ quarterback room has some concerns at the top with Watson coming off of a major injury and now being almost four years removed from his last prime season, but he does come with some upside if he can consistently stay on the field more than he has the past three seasons.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Browns’ most injury plagued position groups last season was the offensive tackle position. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin began last season as the starters on the left and right side respectively, but Conklin lasted just 22 snaps before going down for the season with a knee injury, while Wills struggled with a 54.0 PFF grade in 8 starts before going down with his own season ending injury. Dawand Jones, a 2023 4th round rookie who started the season as the swing tackle, had a pretty decent season with a 64.7 PFF grade in 9 starts, first at right tackle after Conklin went down and then at left tackle after Wills went down, but he suffered a season ending injury of his own in week 13 and the other two tackles who made starts for the Browns last season, James Hudson (7 starts) and Geron Christian (9 snaps), both struggled mightily with PFF grades of 46.8 and 42.3.

Wills, Conklin, and Jones all return healthy for 2024 and, at least for now, it looks like everyone will remain in the role they became last season, Wills on the left side, Conklin on the right side, and Jones as the backup, even though Wills struggled last season, Conklin is coming off of a major injury, and Jones showed he was a capable starter with the upside for more in the absence of Conklin and Wills last season. However, that could change at some point, particularly if Wills continues to struggle. 

A first round pick in 2020, Wills has been better in the past and is only in his age 25 season, but he has yet to live up to his draft slot, as his better seasons were PFF grades of just 61.5, 66.1, and 62.9 in 45 total starts in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Conklin, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in 8 straight seasons, with 6 seasons above 70, but he’s coming off of the second major knee injury in his career and now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2024. He’s starting his decline from a pretty high base point, but it seems unlikely he’ll be at his best this season.

Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, and Wyatt Teller remain as the starters on the interior, at left guard, center, and right guard respectively and all three are coming off of solid seasons, with PFF grades of 68.0, 71.4, and 72.9 respectively. For Bitonio, last season was actually a down year, in fact the worst season-long grade of his 10-year career. Bitonio has eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he’s now going into his age 33 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could continue declining further. There’s at least a decent chance he remains an above average starter, but that’s not a guarantee. To prepare for life without Bitonio, the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Zak Zinter for depth and a potential long-term replacement.

Teller is also getting up there in age a little bit, heading into his age 30 season. His best two seasons were in 2020 and 2021 when he had PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9, but, even though he hasn’t reached those heights since, he has remained in the 70s in each of the past two seasons. He could decline further in 2024, given his age, but he’s not totally over the hill and has a good chance to remain an above average starter, with the potential to even bounce back a little bit towards his prime form.

Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the three, going into his age 29 season. Injuries have been a concern for him throughout his career, as he’s made 14 or more starts in a season just twice in seven seasons in the league, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, with back-to-back seasons over 70 and he should remain an above average starter in 2024, for as long as he can stay on the field. The Browns also signed a better backup center in Brian Allen, who has made 32 career starts in six seasons in the league, with only one season below 60 on PFF and a 80.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2021. He should be able to hold down the fort for at least a few games if Pocic misses time again. Overall, this is an aging offensive line, but they should be healthier than a year ago and still look above average as a group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Browns also were without feature back Nick Chubb for most of last season, a big loss, as Chubb had previously rushed for 6,511 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1,238 carries (5.26 YPC) in 77 games since being a second round pick in 2018. Chubb should be healthier this season, but he might not be available or 100% for the start of the season, given the severity of his injury. He’s also going into his age 29 season with 1,361 career touches, which is a common point when running backs start to slow down. He should give them more than he gave them a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect his peak form in 2024, especially not for a full season.

In Chubb’s absence, Jerome Ford rushed for 813 yards and 4 touchdowns on 204 carries (3.99 YPC), Kareem Hunt rushed for 411 yards and 9 touchdowns on 135 carries (3.04 YPC), and Pierre Strong rushed for 291 yards and 1 touchdown on 63 carries (4.62 YPC). Ford, a 2022 5th round pick who previously had just 8 touches as a rookie, will likely remain the lead back if Chubb misses more time, but he had just a 39.7% carry success rate last season and is probably overstretched as a true lead back, so he could see a pretty even carry split with free agent addition D’onta Foreman, who should be an upgrade on free agent departure Kareem Hunt. 

Foreman only averaged 3.90 YPC with the Bears last season, but he had a 53.2% carry success rate. He also had a 48.8% carry success rate with 4.50 YPC on 203 carries in 2022 and a 48.9% carry success rate with 4.26 YPC on 133 carries in 2021, so he should be a useful tandem back with Ford if Chubb misses time. Chubb has never been much of a pass catcher, even at his best, with 0.96 yards per route run and 123 catches in 77 career games, while Ford and Foreman have career averages of just 1.00 yards per route run and 1.01 yards per route run respectively, so another free agent addition Nyheim Hines could carve out a role as a passing down back, even after Chubb returns.

Hines missed all of last season with injury and prior to that only had a 3.93 YPC average on 306 carries in his first five seasons in the league, but he does have a career 1.52 yards per route run average and, if he’s mostly over his injury, he should be useful for a Browns offense that otherwise lacks a good passing down option. The Browns also still have Kevin Strong, but the 2022 4th round pick only has 85 touches in two seasons in the league and, with Foreman and Hines being added this off-season, Strong will have an uphill battle to win a roster spot, especially if Chubb avoids the PUP list to begin the season. Overall, much of how well this backfield performs is dependent on how much and how well Chubb plays in his return from a major injury, but he should give them more than a year ago at the very least and the Browns also have better depth behind him this time around, meaning a smaller role for Jerome Ford even if Chubb does miss time.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to bringing back all of their key players from a year ago, the Browns also added to their receiving corps, giving away a pair of a late round picks for Jerry Jeudy and extending him on a 3 year, 52.5 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Jeudy never quite lived up to his billing as a 2020 1st round pick with the Broncos, but he still averaged a 63/911/3 slash line per 17 games, with 1.83 yards per route run, despite poor quarterback play in Denver, and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform better in his second home than his first.

The Browns already had Amari Cooper, who had a 72/1250/5 slash line with a 2.31 yards per route run average last season, with a 81/1152/7 slash line per 17 games and a 1.93 yards per route run average in 9 seasons in the league, but Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman struggled with slash lines of 59/640/2 and 21/224/0, as well as yards per route run averages of 1.14 and 0.63, so it’s understandable why the Browns felt the need to upgrade their receiving corps. It wouldn’t be hard for Jeudy to be an upgrade over both of them and Moore and Tillman will now compete for the third receiver job.

Moore and Tillman also have the upside to be better in 2024 than 2023. Tillman was a 2023 3rd round pick and has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Moore was a second round pick in 2021 and averaged 1.23 yards per route run in his first two seasons prior to taking a small step back in 2023. Only in his age 24 season, he could bounce back a little in 2024, especially in a smaller role, although Tillman has the higher upside and could be the favorite for the #3 receiving job, despite his rough rookie season. 

The Browns also have David Bell, who was a third round pick in 2022, but only has 0.87 yards per route run and 38 catches in 31 career games, and they used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Jamari Thrash, but both are likely to be deep reserve options, behind whoever loses the Moore/Tillman battle. Cooper is likely to remain the #1 receiver, although his age is a minor concern in his age 30 season and Jeudy is likely to eat into his target share somewhat as a high upside #2 receiver, with Moore and Tillman playing smaller roles behind them, in which they could be more efficient than a year ago.

Without a good #2 wide receiver last season, tight end David Njoku had a big role with a 81/882/6 slash line on 123 targets and a 1.70 yards per route run average. He’ll probably see a smaller role in 2024 with Jeudy being added, but he also had a 36/475/4 slash line on 53 targets with 1.56 yards per route run in 2022 and a 58/628/4 slash line on 80 targets with 1.55 yards per route run in 2023, so he should remain productive even if he doesn’t see as many targets.

Harrison Bryant (406 snaps) was the primary tight end behind Njoku last season, but he had just a 13/81/3 slash line with 0.56 yards per route run and was mostly a blocker, an aspect of the game he also struggled in. Bryant was let go this off-season and Jordan Akins, who played 231 snaps as the third tight end last season, will probably play a bigger role, particularly as a blocker. He’s a better receiver than Bryant was a year ago, with 1.26 yards per route run in his career, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and has never been much of a blocker, so he’s a pretty underwhelming backup tight end. Still, with an improved receiving corps and a talented top tight end in David Njoku, the Browns have a solid receiving corps overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Browns got a great performance from their defense last season. Defensive performance is much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, so they could regress somewhat defensively, but they bring back all of their key performers from a year ago and, as a result, they should have a better chance than most top defenses of repeating that performance again this season. No player is more key than edge defender Myles Garrett, who had a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run and as a pass rusher, with 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, en route to a Defensive Player of the Year award.

That was Garrett’s first Defensive Player of the Year, but it might not be his last and he’s far from a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 80.0, 86.9, 86.5, 89.5, 92.0, and 92.5 in the six seasons prior to last season, while playing 100 of a possible 115 games, averaging 53.2 snaps per game, and totaling 88.5 sacks, 86 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in his career, with 46 sacks, 42 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 49 games over the past three seasons. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Garrett in 2024.

It wasn’t just Garrett though, as part of the reason why their defense was so good last season was that they finally had a good complement opposite Garrett. In his first season in Cleveland, Za’Darius Smith had a 82.6 PFF grade on 580 snaps, playing the run well and finishing with 5.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 15.5% pressure rate in 16 games. That’s not out of the ordinary for Smith, who has finished above 70 in five straight healthy seasons, with three seasons over 80, while totaling 50 sacks, 86 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate and playing 47.1 snaps per game in 80 games over that stretch, but he is now going into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty base base point and has a good chance to remain an above average starter even if he declines, but a noticeable decline from him would hurt this defense, at least somewhat.

The Browns also got good play out of their top reserve edge defender Ogbo Okoronkwo, who had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate. That’s also not out of the ordinary for him, as he had PFF grades of 79.2, 75.1, and 65.7 over the three seasons prior to last season, on an average of 405 snaps per season, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 44 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

The Browns also bring back Alex Wright. He has PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in two seasons in the league, but the 2022 3rd round pick could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, the Browns won’t need him for much of a role unless there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is a deep and talented edge defender group, even if Za’Darius Smith’s age and potential decline are concerns.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender position, with one exception, which I’ll get to later. Dalvin Tomlinson, who had a 63.3 PFF grade on 617 snaps, Shelby Harris, who had a 70.5 PFF grade on 438 snaps, and Maurice Hurst who had a 81.0 PFF grade on 302 snaps, all return, which is a good thing for this defense. Tomlinson is going into his age 30 season and coming off of the first season of his 7-year career in which he was below 70 on PFF, but he was still effective as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate, even if his run defense dropped off. 

Prior to last season, Tomlinson had mostly been a solid run stopper, while totaling 16 sacks, 34 hits, and a 7.0% pressure rate in 109 career games. His best days might be behind him at this point, but he still has a good chance to remain a useful player, particularly in passing situations. Shelby Harris is also getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season, but he finished above 70 on PFF for the sixth time in seven seasons last season. In those seven seasons, he has averaged 507 snaps per season and totalled 25 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.3% pressure rate in 107 games. Harris could easily decline in 2024, given his age, but he could also remain a useful rotational player. 

The Browns are also probably hoping to get more out of Maurice Hurst, who missed four games with injury last season, but he’s had durability problems throughout his career, maxing out at 522 snaps in a season and only playing in every game once in six seasons in the league, while missing 44 games total over that stretch. Hurst has always played pretty well when healthy, with PFF grades over 70 in every season in his career in which he’s played a snap and a career 8.2% pressure rate, and he should continue playing well in 2024, but it’s also likely he misses most time with injury at some point. 

The one big change in this group is that Jordan Elliott left, but he had a 46.5 PFF grade across 440 snaps and the Browns added veteran Quinton Jefferson and second round rookie Mike Hall to replace him and both should be upgrades. Jefferson is going into his age 31 season and has never been much of a run defender, but he’s at least a useful pass rusher with 25.5 sacks, 50 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in 94 games over the past six seasons, which is more than you can say about Elliott, who had a 5.2% pressure rate last season. Even on the wrong side of 30, Jefferson should be an upgrade. Hall, meanwhile, enters the league with a high upside and could be useful in a reserve role as a rookie, before likely developing into a starter long-term as many of the Browns’ interior defender options go into their 30s. Even with age being a concern in this group, this is a deeper group than a year ago and it should be a solid bunch overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Browns’ linebacking corps is the group that had the most changes on this defense this off-season, with both Sione Takitaki, who had a 68.6 PFF grade on 563 snaps, and Anthony Walker, who had a 71.1 PFF grade on 454 snaps, leaving this off-season. Neither is irreplaceable though and the Browns added at least one good replacement in Jordan Hicks. Hicks is going into his age 32 season, which is a concern, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, while playing 60.2 snaps per game in 122 career games. Last season, he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games and, even if he isn’t as good this year, given his age, he could still be at least a capable every down linebacker.

Hicks will start next to fellow every down linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was the Browns’ best linebacker a year ago, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 756 snaps. That’s nothing new for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie and then a 65.5 PFF grade on 535 snaps in 2022. Still only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible his best years are still ahead of him and, even if they’re not, he should remain at least an above average starter for years to come.

Veteran Devin Bush was signed to be the third linebacker this off-season and he figures to be a weak spot on this defense, but he won’t have to play much unless Owusu-Koramoah or Hicks miss extended time with injury. Bush was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2019 and had a solid 62.9 PFF grade on 889 snaps as a rookie, but he got hurt in his second season and hasn’t been the same, with PFF grades below 60 on 488 snaps per season in four seasons since. 

Bush is still relatively young in his age 26 season, but he’s running out of time to make good on his potential and, even in a part-time role, he’s a mediocre option. He could have to compete for the job with 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, but Fields has PFF grades of 50.0 and 49.8 on snap counts of 276 and 234 over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a rookie, so Bush is still probably the better option. Led by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, this is a solid linebacking corps overall, even if they’re not quite as deep as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The personnel remains the same in the secondary. Nine Browns defensive backs played 200 snaps or more last season and all nine will return. The Browns will be hoping for better health though, as all but one of those nine missed at least three games due to injury last season. Denzel Ward missed four games as the top cornerback, but that’s not out of the ordinary, as he’s missed 20 games in six seasons in the league, missing at least two games in every season. He still had a solid 69.6 PFF grade when on the field, his fifth season above 60 in six seasons in the league, with three seasons over 70, and the 2018 1st round pick is still only in his age 27 season, he should remain an above average starter in 2024, as long as he’s on the field.

Fellow cornerback Greg Newsome missed three games, but he also had a solid PFF grade when healthy, finishing with a 69.6 PFF grade across 770 snaps. Like Ward, he’s a former first round pick and he has been solid throughout his career, with a 68.1 PFF grade on 691 snaps as a rookie and a 69.1 PFF grade on 907 snaps in his second season in the league, before another solid season in 2023. Still only in his age 24 season, he should remain at least a solid starter going forward and it’s possible his best days are still ahead of him.

Another starting cornerback, Martin Emerson, was the Browns’ healthiest defensive back last season, playing 856 snaps in 16 games and finishing with a 65.8 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Emerson also had a 72.5 PFF grade on 783 snaps as a rookie and looks on his way towards being at least a solid starter for years to come, still only in his age 24 season. The Browns also have 2023 5th round pick Cameron Mitchell as the top reserve, although he did struggle with a 58.1 PFF grade on 277 snaps as a rookie and isn’t necessarily going to be better in his second season in the league in 2023, so the Browns’ depth behind their top-3 cornerbacks is pretty suspect.

At safety, Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill remain the starters, after posting PFF grades of 70.0 and 67.3 on 738 snaps in 13 games and 602 snaps in 11 games respectively last season. Delpit is coming off of a career best year, after PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.6 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but the 2020 2nd round pick came into the league with a high upside and is only going into his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, while probably playing more games this year than last year.

Thornhill, meanwhile, is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, the first four of which came with the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year was a career low in snaps for him and he should be healthier in 2024, while likely remaining a solid starter. Rodney McLeod (280 snaps), Ronnie Hickman (308 snaps), and D’Anthony Bell (226 snaps) also played roles at safety for the Browns in 2023 and they will compete for the top reserve job in 2024.

McLeod is by far the most experienced, with 143 starts in 12 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in ten of those seasons and above 70 in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 54.1 PFF grade last season and now is going into his age 34 season, so he could continue struggling. Hickman and Bell, meanwhile, had PFF grades of 77.2 and 86.5 last season, but are completely unproven, with Bell being a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled in 72 snaps as a rookie prior to last season and Hickman being a 2023 undrafted free agent. All three candidates for the top reserve job have some upside, but they all have significant downside as well. Overall, this was a solid secondary a year ago and they should be healthier and, as a result, better in 2024.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns went 11-6 and secured a playoff spot last season, despite the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury, most notably at the quarterback position. This season, they should be healthier and they return almost their entire team from a year ago. They are one of the oldest teams in the league, with the 4th highest average age in the league and 8 of their 22 expected starters set to be 30 or older in 2024, which hurts their projection somewhat, as does the fact that defensive performance tends to be less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but the Browns should still be very much in the mix, not just for a playoff spot but for the division title, even in the loaded AFC North.

Prediction: 11-6, 3rd in AFC North