Month: July 2024

Los Angeles Rams 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season, but they were never a team built for consistent long-term success, as they mortgaged the future to win the ultimate prize, trading away numerous high draft picks and borrowing significant amounts of future cap space in order to build a team good enough to win it all. The collapse came quicker and harder than most expected though, as they fell to 5-12 the following season, the worst record ever by a defending Super Bowl Champion. Part of it their collapse was the key players they didn’t bring back from the previous season, but they never would have fallen as far as they did without injuries, as they had the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2022 and those injuries disproportionately affected their most important players. Going into 2023, the Rams were likely to be healthier, but there was still a lot of reason for concern with this team. 

In an attempt to improve their long-term cap situation, the Rams moved on from even more expensive key players from their Super Bowl team last off-season, leaving behind a seemingly underwhelming roster and the league’s second highest dead cap hit at 79.4 million, about 35.3% of the overall cap. Making matters worse, three players, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Matt Stafford, counted for another 28.2% of the cap and all three were on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of significant injuries. That left just 36.5% of the cap for the rest of this roster, which mostly consisted of young players on rookie contracts, most of whom were mid or late round draft picks, as the Rams had picked just twice in the top-50 over the previous six drafts, with no first round picks, as a result of all their aggressive trades for veterans. 

However, the Rams exceeded expectations in a big way in 2023, finishing with a 10-7 record, ranking 17th in DVOA, and qualifying for a post-season berth. The Rams might not have had many high draft picks in recent years nor did they have much financial flexibility last off-season, but they have consistently done a good job of finding talent outside of the top-50 picks and that was a big part of the reason for their surprising success in 2023.

The Rams had a lot more financial flexibility this off-season and they had a first round pick for the first time since 2016, but there are reasons to believe the Rams won’t be able to take a step forward in 2024. For one, they were incredibly lucky with injuries a year ago, as they went from one of the most injury plagued teams in the league to one of the least, with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2023. On top of that, that aforementioned aging core of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald got another year older, with the latter opting to hang them up this off-season, after a 10-year Hall of Fame career, which will be a huge loss for their defense.

For the Rams to have a good chance of making it back to the post-season, they will need quarterback Matt Stafford to continue playing at a relatively high level and stay healthy. Stafford’s long-term outlook looked questionable following the 2022 season, when he completed 68.0% of his passes for an average of 6.89 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in just 9 games before going down for the season with injury, but he bounced back to form in 2023, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. 

Over the past 13 seasons, dating back to his third season in the league in 2011, Stafford has completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 338 touchdowns, and 159 interceptions in 193 starts, while finishing above 70 on PFF ten times and finishing above 80 six times. He’s going into his age 36 season now though, so it’s fair to be concerned about his age and question how much longer he can continue playing at this level, especially with injuries costing him time in three of the previous five seasons.

When Stafford was out in 2022, the Rams went just 2-6, but they are at least better prepared for a potential Stafford absence this time around, signing veteran Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency. Garoppolo has been a starter for most of the past six seasons, completing 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.16 YPA, 82 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in 56 starts, and likely would have at least gotten a look as a stopgap starter somewhere this off-season, if not for the fact that he’s suspended for the first two games of the season. 

Garoppolo struggled last season away from Kyle Shanahan’s play calling and the 49ers’ talented supporting cast in San Francisco, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.13 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in six starts with the Raiders before being benched, and he’s now going into his age 33 season with a significant injury history, with 32 games missed from 2018-2022, but he’s still at least an above average backup and he’ll play in a very similar scheme with the Rams as the one in which he had success with the 49ers. 

The Rams won’t have Garoppolo for the first two games of the season, so if Stafford gets hurt early in the season, they would have to turn to 2023 4th round pick Stetson Bennett, who has never thrown a regular season pass, but Garoppolo will give them a good insurance policy for the rest of the season. Stafford’s age and injury history are concerns, but he could still remain a high level starter for another season and, if he gets hurt, Garoppolo probably won’t be a huge drop off, so, overall, this is an enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The mid-to-late round draft pick who made the biggest impact for the Rams in 2023 was Puka Nacua, who had one of the best rookie years ever by a wide receiver, with a 105/1486/6 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average, despite only being a 5th round pick. Nacua’s dominant rookie season started when Cooper Kupp missed the first four games of the season with injury, but Nacua outshined Kupp even after Kupp’s return, as Kupp was limited to a 59/737/5 slash line, 61.4 yards per game, and a 1.86 yards per route run average, his worst season since 2020, before he was paired with Stafford. In 2021 and 2022 combined, Kupp averaged 106.1 yards per game and 2.87 yards per route run, making him one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span.

Kupp is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him, but he has a good chance to remain at least an above average #2 receiver in 2024, even if he continues declining. In his career, he’s averaged a 105/1306/9 slash line per 17 games and a 2.28 yards per route run average, so he would be declining from a pretty high base point. Nacua, meanwhile, will remain the #1 receiver and, while he could regress after such a dominant rookie season, he should still remain a high level player. He and Kupp should be one of the better wide receiver duos in the league this season.

Tutu Atwell was the Rams’ #3 receiver for most of the year, playing 687 snaps total, but he struggled with just a 39/483/3 slash line and a 1.19 yards per route run average and was benched down the stretch for DeMarcus Robinson, who was a lot better. Robinson played 363 of the 396 snaps he played last season in the final 7 games of the Rams’ season, coinciding with a 6-1 record by the Rams, and he had a 23/332/4 slash line in those 7 games, while averaging 1.66 yards per route run. Robinson is a 8-year veteran with only a career 0.96 yards per route run average though and he now heads into his age 30 season. The Rams kept him on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal this off-season, so he figures to remain the #3 receiver, but it’s unlikely over a full season that he will continue playing at the level he played down the stretch last season.

Atwell remains on the roster, likely as the #4 wide receiver, meaning he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see a significant role. Atwell was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and is still only going into his age 25 season, but he hasn’t shown much in three seasons in the league, totaling 57 catches in 37 games, with a career 1.34 yards per route run average, so he’s best off as a reserve. The Rams also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Jordan Whittington, although he would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see any sort of real playing time and it’s very likely he would struggle if that happened.

Tyler Higbee was the Rams’ starting tight end last season, a role he has played in since his second season in the league in 2017, starting all 109 games he has played since. He hasn’t been bad in that role, averaging 1.42 yards per route run and a 49/515/3 slash line per season over that stretch, while mostly being a solid run blocker, but he’s going into his age 31 season in 2024, he showed some signs of decline in 2023, with just a 47/495/2 slash line and a 1.09 yards per route run average, and he suffered a brutal knee injury, including a torn ACL, in the playoffs last season, making him very questionable for the start of the 2024 season. Even if he can return early in the season, it seems likely he won’t be as good as he’s been in the past, given his age and injury history.

No Rams tight end played more than 192 snaps or caught more than 10 passes in the regular season behind Higbee last season, but the Rams prepared for a potential Higbee absence and/or decline in 2024 by signing ex-Seahawks tight end Colby Parkinson to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Parkinson didn’t show a lot in his four seasons in Seattle, playing sparingly in his first two seasons in the league and only seeing part time roles over the past two seasons, with slash lines of 25/322/2 and 25/247/2, but he has had a decent 1.32 yards per route run average over the past two seasons, he’s a decent blocker, and the 2020 4th round pick is only in his age 25 season, so he could have untapped upside.  Parkinson is a projection to a larger role and was probably overpaid this off-season, but he could be a decent replacement for Higbee and he could rotate with Higbee, even after he returns. 

Behind Higbee and Parkinson, the Rams still have Davis Allen, their nominal backup tight end last season, though the 2023 5th round pick played very sparingly as a rookie. He did have a decent 1.28 yards per route run average in his limited rookie season action, but even if Higbee misses time early in the season, it’s hard to see Allen having a big role, given how infrequently the Rams use multiple tight ends on the field at the same time. This is an above average receiving corps overall, led by one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Another mid-to-late round pick who made a big impact last season was Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who led the team with 228 carries for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns, a 5.02 YPC average. Williams did that in just 12 games and, unsurprisingly, the Rams went just 2-3 without him, as opposed to 8-4 with him, as the other running backs on this roster combined for just 608 yards and 5 touchdowns on 186 carries, an average of 3.27 YPC.

Williams is not without flaws. He’s undersized at 5-9 197 and, unsurprisingly given his size, has had issues carrying the load and staying healthy, dating back to his collegiate days. He benefited from a great offense around him last season and an offensive line that ranked 5th on PFF in run blocking grade. He is a one-year wonder, seeing just 44 nondescript touches as a rookie in 2022. He also has struggled in passing situations, struggling mightily as a pass blocker and averaging just 0.70 yards per route run and 4.70 yards per target in his career.

Because of all of that, the Rams used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Blake Corum, who could spell Williams frequently to try to keep him healthier and who will likely take on a big role in passing situations. The only two backup running backs the Rams brought back from last season were Zach Evans, a 2023 6th round pick who had just 19 rushing yards on 9 carries as a rookie, and Ronnie Rivers, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has just 150 rushing yards on 41 carries in his career, so Corum doesn’t have much competition for the #2 role. 

Evans and Rivers aren’t even guaranteed roster spots, as the Rams added veteran Boston Scott to the mix this off-season. He only has 373 touches in six seasons in the league, but his experience could give him the edge on the #3 back job. The Rams’ #3 back would only see a significant role in case of injury though, with Williams and Corum likely to see the vast majority of the touches as long as both are healthy. Even if Williams has his issues as a lead back, this is a solid backfield, with Corum being added to give them needed depth behind Williams.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was much improved in 2023 compared to 2022. I already mentioned their dominance in run blocking, where they ranked 5th on PFF. They weren’t nearly as good in pass protection, ranking 20th, but that was still a big step up from 2022, when they ranked 25th in pass protection and 19th in run blocking. The biggest reason for their improvement was guard Kevin Dotson, who the Rams acquired in a trade from the Steelers before the season started for just a swap of late round picks.

A 4th round pick in 2020, Dotson showed promise in the first three seasons of his career in Pittsburgh, making 30 starts and receiving PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4, but the Steelers still felt he was expendable after revamping their offensive line last off-season and traded him ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. That proved to be a mistake, as Dotson broke out with a career best 85.2 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. The Rams then rewarded him this off-season with a 3-year, 48 million dollar contract. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023 and might not repeat that dominant season, but he’s still in his prime in his age 28 season and could easily continue playing at an above average level in 2024.

Dotson wasn’t the only guard the Rams gave a big contract to this off-season, using some of their newfound cap space to sign ex-Lion Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal. Jackson’s arrival will push incumbent Steve Avila inside to center, but Jackson isn’t necessarily going to be an upgrade on Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who had a decent 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, while Avila isn’t necessarily going to be an upgrade over incumbent center Cameron Shelton, who had a 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and was allowed to leave as a free agent this off-season.

Jackson did have PFF grades of 69.3 and 66.1 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to 59.7 in 2023 and also had a 57.0 PFF grade as a 3rd round rookie in 2020, so it’s hard to justify him being the 7th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. Avila, meanwhile, has a high upside and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024, but having to change positions probably hurts his chances of that happening. Even in a best case scenario in which Avila takes a step forward and Jackson bounces back to his top form, the Rams’ offensive line won’t be significantly better than a year ago and the big investment the Rams made in Jackson is unlikely to be worth it.

At left tackle, Alaric Jackson is another player who had a solid season in 2023, despite not being a high draft pick. In fact, Jackson wasn’t drafted at all back in 2021, but he still had a solid 66.2 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. He’s only had one season as a full-time starter, but he flashed potential in 6 starts in his first two seasons in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued at least being a decent starter in 2024 and beyond.

Right tackle Rob Havenstein is by far the longest tenured member of this offensive line, becoming a starter back in his rookie season in 2015 and making 130 starts in nine seasons since. However, with that experience comes age and the potential for decline, now going into his age 32 season. He is starting from a pretty high base point, finishing above 70 on PFF in all but two seasons in the league, including four straight and a career best 81.8 in 2023, so he has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter, but he’s unlikely to match his career best season from a year ago, given his age, and if he drops off significantly, that would hurt this offense.

Joe Noteboom was their top reserve offensive lineman a year ago, playing 573 snaps in 10 games (8 starts), and he’s a versatile reserve who can play any position except probably center. He did struggle with a 52.3 PFF grade in 2023, but the 2018 3rd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league (31 starts), so he’s a good reserve option to have. Other reserve options include guard Logan Bruss, a 2022 3rd round pick, tackle Warren McClendon, a 2023 5th round pick, guard/center Beaux Limmer, a 6th round rookie, and tackle/guard KT Leveston, a 7th round rookie, but they are all underwhelming options. 

Bruss has yet to play a snap in two seasons in the league, missing his rookie season with injury and then spending most of last season on the practice squad, McClendon played just 32 snaps as a rookie, while Limmer and Leveston are probably too raw to make positive contributions in year one. The Rams have a solid starting five on the offensive line and Noteboom is a good reserve, but the Rams would be in trouble if they lost multiple offensive linemen to injury at the same time, something that didn’t happen a year ago, but that could easily happen in 2024.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams lost interior defender Aaron Donald to retirement this off-season, which is a big deal because he still had a 90.9 PFF grade across 865 snaps last season and was still one of the best defensive players in the league. Even with him last season, the Rams still ranked just 22nd in defensive DVOA and that was despite having the fewest adjusted games to injury on defense of any team in the league, so the Rams could be in some serious trouble on this side of the ball in 2024.

The Rams do still have some impressive players though and one of their best is another interior defender Kobie Turner, who had a 83.8 PFF grade last season on 695 snaps, playing the run well and excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner was yet another mid-round pick who had a big season in 2023, as he was only a third round rookie. With Donald gone, Turner should see an expanded role. He could regress a little on a higher snap count, but he could also continue developing into one of the best interior defenders in the league.

Jonah Williams, who was third at the position in snaps played last season behind Donald and Turner with 597 snaps, is also no longer with the team, although he was pretty mediocre with a 55.6 PFF grade. To replace Donald and Williams’ snaps, on top of giving more snaps to Turner, the Rams also added Braden Fiske in the second round of the draft and will likely give a bigger snap count to Bobby Brown. A 4th round pick in 2021, Brown only played 186 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but impressed in a slightly expanded role in 2023, with a 72.0 PFF grade on 313 snaps. He’s a much better run defender than pass rusher though, with a 3.9% pressure rate last season and a 4.7% pressure rate for his career, so he could struggle if forced into more pass rushing situations in an expanded role. Fiske, meanwhile, profiles as a future starter, but could struggle through growing pains in year one.

Behind Turner, Fiske, and Brown, the Rams have Larrell Murchison, who played 252 snaps last season, Desjuan Johnson, who played 102 snaps last season, and 6th round rookie Tyler Davis, who could play a deep reserve role in year one. All are underwhelming options though. Murchison has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league on an average of 173 snaps per season, including a 49.5 PFF grade in 2023. Johnson was just a 7th round pick in 2023 and didn’t show much in limited action as a rookie. Davis, meanwhile, is unlikely to make much of a positive impact in his first season in the league. Overall, this is a pretty thin interior defender group behind Kobie Turner and they will miss Aaron Donald in a big way.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Rams also got a big contribution from a mid-round rookie at the edge defender position last season, with 3rd round rookie Byron Young receiving a 63.5 PFF grade on 967 snaps as a rookie, while totaling 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. He should remain at least a capable starter in 2024. Michael Hoecht was the starter opposite him and he also was decent on a big snap count, with a 61.7 PFF grade on 960 snaps, while totaling 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. Undrafted in 2020, Hoecht was in his first season as a starter in 2023, but he also flashed some potential with a 65.4 PFF grade on 409 snaps in 2022, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate.

Depth was a huge problem at the edge defender position in 2023, which is why Young and Hoecht played so many snaps last season, 5th and 6th in the NFL among edge defenders. In fact, the Rams didn’t have another edge defender play more than 100 snaps last season. That should change this year though, as the Rams used their first round pick on Jared Verse, who will play a significant role in rotation with Young and Hoecht. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Brennan Jackson to give them another deep reserve option and they could get more out of 2023 5th round pick Nick Hampton and 2023 6th round pick Ochaun Mathis, who played just 67 snaps and 75 snaps respectively as rookies. This is a decent, if unspectacular position group, but at least their depth should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Off ball linebacker Ernest Young is another recent mid round pick who was a big part of the Rams’ season in 2023. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Jones had a 82.1 PFF grade on 932 snaps last season, a breakout year for a player who had previously had PFF grades of 59.3 and 63.6 on snap counts of 440 and 723 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and could regress in 2024, but he’s only in his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as a high level off ball linebacker.

The rest of this linebacking corps struggled mightily though, with Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder ranking second and third in snaps played at 552 and 194 and posting PFF grades of 49.0 and 45.7 respectively. Rozeboom is a 2020 undrafted free agent who only played 8 career snaps prior to last season, while Reeder has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and is now going into his age 30 season. The Rams didn’t make any significant additions at this position this off-season, so Rozeboom will remain the starter next to Jones and Reeder will remain the top reserve and both figure to continue struggling at their roles. Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is so bad that they’re still underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Secondary

To mask their lack of depth at linebacker, the Rams frequently used three safeties together in sub packages, with one playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a coverage linebacker. The Rams didn’t bring back Jordan Fuller this off-season, after he had a solid 66.7 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but they signed Kamren Curl to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal to replace him and he should be more than an adequate replacement. 

A 7th round pick in 2020, Curl has started 53 of the 60 games he’s played in four seasons in the league, while finishing above 65 on PFF in all four seasons. Curl’s best season came in 2022 when he had a 82.9 PFF grade on 727 snaps in 12 games and, while that looks like an outlier, given that he was below 70 in his other three seasons, it shows his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, Curl should at least be a solid starter in 2024 with the upside for more.

Russ Yeast (800 snaps), John Johnson (518 snaps), and Quentin Lake (451 snaps) all saw roles at safety behind Fuller last season, with Yeast being the one who most frequently played as a de facto linebacker. Yeast and Johnson struggled with PFF grades of 57.0 and 55.8, but Lake played pretty well with a 71.2 PFF grade. The Rams also added to this group this off-season with third round pick Kamren Kitchens.

Yeast will likely remain the starter opposite Curl, despite his struggles last season. Only a 7th round pick in 2022, Yeast was underwhelming on 113 snaps as a rookie before struggling in a bigger role in 2023 and he figures to continue struggling in 2024. Lake or Kinchens could push him for his starting job, but Lake is an inexperienced 2022 6th round pick, with 514 career snaps, while Kinchens could struggle through growing pains as a rookie. Johnson is the most experienced of the bunch, starting 88 of the 103 games he’s played in his career, and he was a solid starter in his prime, but he’s now heading into his age 30 season and his best years seem to be behind him, so he will likely remain only a part-time player and perhaps a mediocre one at that.

The two biggest additions the Rams made on defense this off-season were cornerback Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White, signed to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal and an incentivized 1-year, 4.25 million dollar deal respectively. White should be a starter if healthy, but that’s a big if, considering he has been limited to 21 games over the past three seasons due to a torn ACL and a torn achilles. White was a high level cornerback before his injuries, surpassing a 70 grade on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, but he has not been the same since and the achilles tear he is working back from now only complicates things. He’s still only in his age 29 season, but it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point.

For Williams, this is a return to the Rams, where he spent the first four seasons of his career from 2018-2021. The former undrafted free agent became a starter in 2020 and posted PFF grades of 80.0 and 65.3 in his two seasons as a starter with the Rams, before posting PFF grades of 62.6 and 79.5 as a starter with the Jaguars over the past two seasons. In total, he has started 52 of the 64 games he has played over the past four seasons, including all 17 last season. He’s going into his age 31 season now and could start to decline, but he has a good chance to remain an at least a solid starter.

The Rams’ top three cornerbacks last season were Akhello Witherspoon (1,060 snaps), Derion Kendrick (857 snaps), and Cobie Durant (642 snaps), who had PFF grades of 64.3, 59.8, and 56.9, so it won’t be hard for Williams and White to be an upgrade, even if Williams is on the wrong side of 30 and White is coming off of another significant injury. Witherspoon is no longer with the team, while Kendrick and Durant figure to compete for the #3 cornerback job behind Williams and White. 

Both Kendrick and Durant struggled last season, but Durant should have the higher upside, as he went in the 4th round in 2022 and flashed potential with a 73.3 PFF grade on 281 snaps as a rookie, while Kendrick only went in the 6th round in 2022 and struggled with a 43.7 PFF grade on 483 snaps as a rookie. It’s possible neither will be even a capable third cornerback in 2024, but Durant has the better chance. Overall, this should be an upgraded secondary compared to a year ago with Kamren Curl, Darious Williams, and Tre’Davious White added, but this group still has problems.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Rams made some significant additions through free agency and the draft this off-season and they were a playoff qualifier a year ago, but they are also likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, and they will miss retired interior defender Aaron Donald, who was still one of the best defensive players in the league. Their success is also very dependent on quarterback Matt Stafford not declining and staying healthy, both of which are not guarantees, given that he is in his age 36 season and has dealt with serious injuries in recent years. In the weak NFC, the Rams should still have a good chance to qualify for the playoffs again, unless Stafford gets hurt or drops off significantly, but I wouldn’t expect them to take a step forward from a year ago, despite their off-season additions.

Update: The Rams’ already weak defense took another big hit when they traded away linebacker Ernest Jones, rather than re-signing him long-term ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. The Rams are likely to be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot at season’s end, especially given their tough schedule.

Prediction: 8-9, 3rd in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

Going into last season, the Cardinals looked like arguably the worst team in the league, with one of the worst rosters in the league and an injured quarterback in Kyler Murray who didn’t seem likely to return from his ACL tear until mid-season. The Cardinals finished 4-13, but they were better than that suggests, especially after Kyler Murray returned in week 10, from which point the Cardinals went 3-5, obviously below .500, but better than many would have expected for them in that stretch, even with Murray. 

In terms of first down rate differential, the Cardinals finished at -3.86%, but when you weight their performances later in the season more heavily, that improves to -2.88%. Going into 2024, Murray should be fully healthy and the Cardinals should have a better roster around him, making significant investments in free agency and drafting eight times in the top-104 picks in the draft, including a pair of first round picks. All of that should make for a much more competitive team than a year ago and likely a significant jump in win total. That might not translate to a playoff appearance, but they’re heading in the right direction.

Murray’s stats in 2023 don’t look that impressive, as he completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 8 games, while rushing for 5.55 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 44 carries, but he wasn’t 100% healthy and had a weak supporting cast, two things that should be better in 2024. Prior to his injury, Murray had completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 64 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, with 5.76 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 288 carries in his previous 41 starts over the 2020-2022 seasons, while missing just three games due to injury in that stretch. He’ll always be more of an injury risk than most quarterbacks because of how much he takes off and runs, but he has a good chance to bounce back to his 2020-2022 form this season.

If Murray ends up missing more time due to injury, he would be replaced by Desmond Ridder, who the Cardinals acquired from the Falcons this off-season. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Ridder has completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.05 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 starts, which is underwhelming and why he lost his starting job, but he’s not bad as far as backups go and, only going into his age 25 season, he could have further untapped upside in 2024 and beyond. Overall, this is not a bad quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Arguably the biggest addition the Cardinals made to their offensive supporting cast this off-season was Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall, making him the highest drafted non-quarterback in this year’s draft. Harrison is one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory and likely would have been a top-3 pick if this wasn’t one of the strongest quarterback drafts in recent memory. He will essentially be replacing free agent departure Marquise Brown, who was nominally the #1 wide receiver last season, but had just a 51/574/4 slash line with 5.68 yards per target and 1.25 yards per route run. Harrison should be a noticeable upgrade, even in year one.

Another young receiver, Michael Wilson, should be the #2 wide receiver. A 3rd round pick in 2023, Wilson didn’t have a bad rookie year, considering he was a rookie on an offense with a lot of problems, as he had a 38/565/3 slash line in 13 games with a 1.36 yards per route run average and a 9.74 yards per target average. Now going into his second season in the league, on what should be a better offense, Wilson has a good chance to take a significant step forward statistically. 

The Cardinals also added veteran Zay Jones on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal this off-season and he should be their #3 receiver, replacing Rondale Moore, who had just a 40/352/1 slash line with 0.73 yards per route run and 5.68 yards per target last season. Jones was limited to a 34/321/2 slash line and a 1.05 yards per route run average with the Jaguars in 2023, but he missed eight games with injury and was limited in several games he did play. Prior to last season’s down performance, he had a 47/546/1 slash line in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line in 2022, with a combined 1.41 yards per route run average, so he should have bounce back potential in 2024 if he’s healthy, still relatively young in his age 29 season.

Veteran holdover Greg Dortch and veteran free agent addition Chris Moore are probably the Cardinals’ top reserve wide receivers. Originally undrafted in 2019, Dortch has slash lines of 52/461/2 and 24/281/2 over the past two seasons as a slot receiver specialist, with an average of 1.26 yards per route run. Moore, meanwhile, has a 1.37 yards per route run average in the past three seasons combined, with slash lines of 21/227/2, 48/548/2, and 22/424/0 in a part-time role, though he is now going into his age 31 season and could decline a little bit in 2024. They’re not bad depth and this isn’t a bad wide receiver group, especially compared to last season, but they’re still an underwhelming group overall.

With all of the problems the Cardinals had at wide receiver last season, tight end Trey McBride led this team with a 81/825/3 slash line, while averaging 2.03 yards per route run and 7.78 yards per target. Overall, McBride ranked 7th in the NFL among tight ends in receiving yardage, 2nd in yards per route run, and 6th in PFF grade at 76.3. He was even better in the final 10 games of the season from week 8 onward, after the Cardinals parted ways with veteran Zach Ertz, with whom McBride had previously been splitting snaps. In those 10 games, McBride had a 66/655/3 slash line, which extrapolates to 112/1114/5 over a 17-game season.

McBride is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2022 2nd round pick had just a 29/265/1 slash line and a 0.84 yards per route run average as a rookie, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and it often takes tight ends a year at least to develop, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if McBride remained an above average tight end going forward, with the upside to improve even further, still only going into his age 25 season. With little competition for tight end snaps and a better offense around him, McBride could easily exceed last season’s already impressive receiving totals. 

McBrie will be backed up by Tip Reiman, 3rd round rookie. Reiman has upside as a receiver, but will likely struggle in that capacity as a rookie and was mostly drafted for his size and blocking ability at 6-5 271. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over incumbent backup Geoff Swaim, who is no longer with the team, after posting a 10/94/0 slash line with 0.94 yards per route run in 2023, while struggling as a blocker as well. This is a young receiving corps overall, but they have a lot of upside, led by third year Trey McBride, rookie Marvin Harrison, and second year Michael Wilson.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Cardinals also made a big investment on their offensive line this off-season, signing Jonah Williams to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal. He will essentially replace DJ Humphries, who was a cap casualty this off-season ahead of a 16 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, after a 2023 season in which he had a 62.5 PFF grade in 15 starts. Humphries played left tackle last season, but Williams played both left and right tackle in his previous home in Cincinnati and could play either spot in Arizona. It sounds like the Cardinals will start him at right tackle for now, with incumbent right tackle Paris Johnson moving to the left side, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals flipped those two at some point.

Williams was a first round pick by the Bengals in 2019 and showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 70.1 and 77.1 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, after missing his entire rookie season with injury, but he declined to 61.2 in 2022 and then declined further to 58.5 in 2023 in his lone season at right tackle. Williams is still relatively young in his age 27 season and has some bounce back potential, but that potential is less than it was a year ago, now coming off of back-to-back down years. Paris Johnson, meanwhile, is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was unspectacular as a rookie, with a 60.1 PFF grade, but he has the upside to take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2024.

On the interior, the Cardinals got decent seasons out of two of their starters a year ago, with center Hjalte Froholdt and right guard Will Hernandez posting PFF grades of 64.1 and 66.2 respectively, while starting all 17 games. Froholdt was in his first full season as a starter, but had a decent 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2022 as well and could easily continue being a capable, if unspectacular starter in 2024. Hernandez, meanwhile, has made 86 starts in six seasons in the league since being a second round pick in 2018. He’s been inconsistent in his career, with three seasons in the 50s on PFF and three seasons in the 60s, but he’s coming off of back-to-back decent seasons, also receiving a 65.4 PFF grade in 2022, so he could continue being a capable starter in 2024, still only in his age 29 season.

Left guard, on the other hand, was a weak spot for the Cardinals in 2023, with Elijah Wilkinson, Trystan Colon, Carter O’Donnell, Dennis Daley all making starts and all finishing below 60 on PFF. To upgrade this position, the Cardinals signed veteran Evan Brown to a 1-year, 2.35 million dollar deal and then used a third round pick on Isaiah Adams. Brown is the favorite for the job and he’s likely to be a significant upgrade over what they had a year ago, but Adams has more upside long-term and could take over the job at some point down the stretch. Brown has made 40 starts over the past three seasons. He’s coming off of a down year with a 55.5 PFF grade, but he had PFF grades of 66.8 and 64.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively and, only in his age 28 season, could easily bounce back in 2024.

Wilkinson, Colon, O’Donnell, and Daley all return and will compete for reserve roles, but they’re all underwhelming options. Daley and Wilkinson are at least experienced and both have the ability to play multiple positions, so they’re probably the favorite for the backup jobs. Daley was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has made 37 starts in five seasons in the league, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, including a 38.4 PFF grade in 2023. Elijah Wilkinson has made 45 starts in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2017 and he received PFF grades of 65.5, 65.0, and 64.3 in 2018, 2021, and 2022, when he made a combined 17 starts, but he’s otherwise struggled, including a 46.2 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2023. 

Colon and O’Donnell, meanwhile, are much less experienced and likely have lower odds of making the final roster. Both are 2020 undrafted free agents. Colon has played just 645 snaps in four seasons in the league, struggling with a 59.6 PFF grade on a career high 322 snaps in 2023, while O’Donnell is also a 2020 undrafted free agent, who struggled with a 54.1 PFF grade on the first 193 snaps of his career in 2023. Colon has some experience at center, which increases his chances, but, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago, they probably have uphill battles to make the final roster.

The Cardinals also bring back swing tackle Kelvin Beachum. Beachum has started 149 games in 12 seasons in the league and has finished above 60 on PFF in all twelve of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and is only a backup caliber player at this stage of his career. He did have a 61.2 PFF grade across 212 snaps a year ago and could probably still fill in decently for a few games if needed in the case of an injury, but he also could decline significantly given his age. It’s possible he’ll be pushed for the swing tackle job by 5th round rookie Christian Jones. Overall, this is a decent, if unspectacular offensive line.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Despite problems on the offensive line and with this offense in general, the Cardinals were actually a very effective running team in 2023, averaging 5.02 YPC, second in the NFL. James Conner led the way with 1,040 yards and 7 touchdowns on 208 carries, an average of 5.00 YPC. It was a career best year for a 7-year veteran who had previously never surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season and who has just a 4.33 YPC in his career across 1,125 carries, so it’s unlikely he repeats that performance, especially given that he’s now in his age 29 season, which tends to be around when running backs start to decline, often significantly. 

Conner is also an injury prone player who has missed 24 games in his career, with at least two games missed in every season. He will likely miss more time in 2024, but the Cardinals don’t have bad depth behind him. Emari Demercado averaged 4.90 YPC on 58 carries last season, despite being an undrafted rookie. He’s still very unproven, but the Cardinals added further depth this off-season, selecting Trey Benson in the third round of the draft. They’ll compete for the backup job with Michael Carter, a mid-season waiver claim last season who only had 31 touches in six games once joining the Cardinals, but who has a decent 4.22 YPC average on 291 carries in three seasons since being a 4th round pick of the Jets in 2021.

Conner is a decent pass catcher with a 1.14 yards per route run average and an average slash line of 39/302/2 in six seasons as a starter, but Demercado was their primary third down back last season to give Conner a rest and he struggled with a 21/119/0 slash line and a 0.73 yards per route run average. The rookie Benson has some pass catching upside, with 20 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown in his final collegiate season, and Carter has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, so there will be competition for passing down roles. Conner probably won’t have as good of a season as he had a year ago, but, overall he’s a solid lead back and the Cardinals have decent depth as well.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Defense was the Cardinals’ biggest problem a year ago, as they ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and didn’t really get better down the stretch, as their improvement in the second half of the season was led by their offense and the return of quarterback Kyler Murray from injury. The interior defender position was a big problem a year ago and, while the Cardinals tried hard to improve the group, they might only be better at this position by default. Their worst interior defenders from a year ago, Jonathan Ledbetter, who had a 36.1 PFF grade on 511 snaps, Leki Fotu, who had a 46.1 PFF grade on 297 snaps, and Kevin Strong, who had a 50.1 PFF grade on 467 snaps, are all gone, but their replacements was mostly underwhelming too.

Justin Jones was signed to a 3-year, 31.165 million dollar deal and he’s played significant snap counts in the past two seasons, with 746 snaps played in 2022 and 740 snaps played in 2023, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including grades of 45.8 and 49.3 on those big snap counts the past two seasons, so he was a big overpay. Bilal Nichols wasn’t really an overpay, signed for a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal, but he’s an underwhelming option as well, with PFF grades of 55.5 and 51.6 respectively across 801 snaps and 616 snaps respectively over the past two seasons. He’s been better in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued struggling, now two years removed from his last decent season.

The Cardinals did use a first round pick on Darius Robinson, a hybrid defensive lineman who figures to see the majority of his snaps on the interior, particularly in pass rush situations. He should be a boost for this group, but he could also be their top interior defender, which is a concern, as he’s just a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one. They also bring back Roy Lopez and Dante Stills, who were their best interior defenders a year ago, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 59.3 on snap counts of 395 and 533 respectively.

Stills was only a 6th round rookie a year ago and could take a step forward in year two, but he also didn’t come into the league with a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being a mediocre option. Lopez, meanwhile, was decent in a limited role last season, but the 2021 6th round pick struggled in bigger roles in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 55.7 and 53.1 on snap counts of 502 and 557 respectively. He probably won’t see a high snap count in a position group that is by default better than a year ago, so he could remain a useful rotational player, but, overall, this is still an underwhelming position group, even after the Cardinals made significant investments in it this off-season.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

Things should stay the same at the edge defender position in 2024, with the exception of hybrid rookie Darius Robinson potentially seeing some snaps on the edge and 5th round rookie Xavier Thomas potentially working his way into a role down the stretch. Zaven Collins (636 snaps), Dennis Gardeck (510 snaps), BJ Ojulari (409 snaps), Victor Dimukeje (385 snaps), and Cameron Thomas (355 snaps) all saw significant snaps last season and should continue playing a significant role this season.

Zaven Collins was arguably the Cardinals’ best defensive player last season, although mostly by default, as he finished with a 72.1 PFF grade, playing well against the run, in coverage, and as a pass rusher, with a 11.0% pressure rate. A first round pick in 2021, Collins started his career as an off ball linebacker, flashing potential with a 69.3 PFF grade on 220 snaps as a backup in 2021, but struggling with a 59.8 PFF grade across 1,025 snaps as a starter in 2022. He seems to be better in his new position and he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could easily remain an above average starter and could potentially take another step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024.

Dennis Gardeck was their best edge rusher in 2023, leading the team with 6 sacks, while adding 8 hits and a 17.4% pressure, but he struggled mightily against the run, leading to a middling 67.6 PFF grade overall. He’s also a one-year wonder, as the 2018 undrafted free agent played just 480 snaps total in his career prior to last season, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could regress in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play fewer snaps in 2024, in favor of younger players like BJ Ojulari, Cameron Thomas, and Victor DImukeje. 

Ojulari was a second round pick in 2023 and showed some promise with a 64.8 PFF grade and a 12.4% pressure rate in a limited rookie year role. He came into the league with a lot of upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him translate his promising rookie season into a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and showed promise with a 69.9 PFF grade in 237 snaps and a 12.3% pressure rate as a rookie, but he took a step back in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023, finishing with a 58.5 PFF grade and a 8.0% pressure rate. Thomas still has upside and could have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2024, but he hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league. 

Dimukeje, meanwhile, was just a 6th round pick in 2021 and struggled across 297 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he took a step forward with a 67.5 PFF grade in a limited role in 2023, especially playing well as a pass rusher, with a 15.9% pressure rate. It’s possible he could continue being a solid rotational player in 2024 and beyond, but he’s still pretty unproven and wasn’t a high draft pick, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2024. Overall, this is an underwhelming edge defender group, but it’s at least young and has some upside.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, Kyzir White, Josh Woods, and Krys Barnes all played significant roles, seeing 64.4 snaps per game, 51.6 snaps per game, and 40.8 snaps per game, but not at the same time, as injuries limited them to 11 games, 11 games, and 10 games respectively. The Cardinals also frequently used three safeties together in sub packages with one playing as a coverage linebacker, to mask their lack of depth at the linebacker position, especially when injuries struck.

The Cardinals will hope for healthier seasons from their top-3 linebackers, but that wasn’t their only problem at the position. Kyzir White was the leader of the group, playing every down when healthy, but he was underwhelming with a 58.9 PFF grade. That was the second worst grade of his 6-year career, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also never finished above a 66.6 PFF grade for a season, so, even at his best, he’s only a capable starter. Krys Barnes wasn’t bad with a 60.1 PFF grade in 2023, but that was a career best for the 2020 undrafted free agent, who had grades of 43.7, 53.0, and 46.7 in his first three seasons in the league, and he’s never played more than 526 snaps in a season, so he would be a very underwhelming starting option, especially if he were to play close to an every down role. 

Josh Woods, meanwhile, was the worst of the bunch, with a 31.8 PFF grade, which shouldn’t be a surprise because the 2018 undrafted free agent had previously played just 170 defensive snaps in his first five seasons in the league. He would be underwhelming, even as a backup. The Cardinals could hope for more out of 2023 5th round pick Owen Pappoe, who was decent with a 65.3 PFF grade last season, but he only played 114 snaps as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a bigger role. Even if they’re healthier than a year ago, this remains a well below average position group, with no significant additions made to it this off-season.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Cardinals frequently used three safeties together in sub packages to try to mask their lack of linebacker depth, which makes sense because safety was probably their most talented position a year ago. That should remain the case in 2024. Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker were the starters, playing 938 snaps in 15 games and 763 snaps in 12 games respectively. Andre Chachere was the third safety, playing 467 snaps in 17 games as a reserve, while K’Von Wallace played 393 snaps in 6 games, mostly as an injury replacement when Thompson or Baker were out.

Thompson was the one who most commonly played linebacker in sub packages and he was the best of the bunch. A 5th round pick in the 2019 supplemental draft, Thompson has received PFF grades above 60 from PFF in each of the past five seasons, including grades of 68.2, 65.0, and 71.3 in a combined 44 starts over the past three seasons respectively, with his career best grade in 2023 being second best on this defense behind Zaven Collins. 

Thompson might not repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, but he should remain at least an above average starter and it’s possible he has further untapped upside, only going into his age 26 season. Budda Baker, meanwhile, had a 64.8 PFF grade in 2023, but that was actually a down year for him, the worst season-long grade of his 7-year NFL career. It’s possible he was never fully healthy, after getting hurt in week 1 and missing the next five weeks. Baker has finished above 70 on PFF in four of his seven seasons in the league and, still only in his age 28 season, he could easily bounce back. He and Thompson are a solid safety duo. 

Chachere had a solid season as the third safety last season, but that was a surprise, as the 2018 undrafted free agent had only played 129 snaps in his career prior to last season, so he could regress in 2024, as an unproven one-year wonder. The Cardinals didn’t bring back K’Von Wallace, but he struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade and he was replaced by 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who should be a decent 4th safety, even as a rookie.

Cornerback was a big position of weakness for the Cardinals last season, as Marco Wilson (694 snaps), Antonio Hamilton (559 snaps), Starling Thomas (473 snaps), Kel’Tral Clark (464 snaps), and Garrett Williams (360 snaps) all played significant snaps and only Hamilton (64.7 PFF grade) finished above 60 on PFF. Hamilton is no longer with the team, nor is Wilson, leaving Thomas, Clark, and Williams as the top holdovers and all three were members of the 2023 draft class and are only going into their second seasons in the league. 

The Cardinals then added three more cornerbacks from this year’s draft class, second round pick Max Melton, third round pick Elijah Jones, and seventh round pick Jaden Davis, making this a very young cornerback group, with the only veteran being free agent acquisition Sean Murphy-Bunting, who was signed to a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting and Melton are likely locked in as starters, but both are underwhelming options. 

Melton profiles as a long-term starter, but could struggle through growing pains in year one, while Murphy-Bunting is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, but the two exceptions were the two seasons where he’s played the most, with PFF grades of 55.9 and 57.6 on snap counts of 884 and 840 in 2020 and 2023 respectively. The third cornerback job is up for grabs, but Garrett Williams is probably the favorite, as a 2023 3rd round pick who wasn’t horrible with a 56.7 PFF grade in a limited role as a rookie and who has the upside to take a step forward in year two.

Elijah Jones is probably Williams’ biggest competition for the third cornerback job, but he could struggle through growing pains as a third round rookie. The Cardinals’ other cornerback options probably aren’t serious candidates for a significant role unless multiple players get hurt. Seventh round rookie Jaden Davis is probably too raw to play significant roles as a rookie, while Starling Thomas and Kel’Tral Clark struggled mightily as rookies in 2023, with PFF grades of 46.1 and 53.0 and neither were highly drafted, going undrafted and in the 6th round respectively. This cornerback group has upside and could be better than last year by default, but they are a weak group overall. The Cardinals do have a solid group of safeties, which is the strength of this defense, but overall their secondary is middling at best.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Cardinals were a much more competitive team down the stretch last season after Kyler Murray returned from injury and he should be healthier this season. The Cardinals also improved their roster around the quarterback this off-season and should have better health overall, after having the fifth most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. They should take a significant step forward in terms of win total after winning just four games a year ago. However, this team still has a lot of holes, especially on defense, and, as a result, they’re probably still not a legitimate contender for a playoff berth in the NFC and they’re probably still the worst team in an overall tough NFC West.

Update: The Cardinals’ already weak defense lost BJ Ojulari for the season due to injury and will be without Darius Robinson for the start of the season with an injury of his own. Their offense should continue their solid play from down the stretch in 2023, but their defense will prevent them from winning a lot of games, especially against one of the toughest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC West

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

The Buccaneers went all-in on their three seasons with Tom Brady, aggressively borrowing against future cap space to keep as much talent around Brady as possible. The Buccaneers went 32-18 in the regular season in those three seasons, with five playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory, but when Brady retired last off-season, the Buccaneers were forced to go in a new direction. They could have continued being aggressive and continued borrowing against future cap space to keep payroll as high as possible, in an attempt to remain relevant, but instead they started a little bit of a teardown and rebuild process to try to improve their long-term cap situation. 

The Buccaneers kept several key players, but moved on from others and, overall, looked noticeably worse than the year prior, even before considering that they no longer had Tom Brady under center. Without a high draft pick or significant cap space to use on a replacement for Brady, the Buccaneers took a chance on a reclamation project in Baker Mayfield on an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and had him compete for the starting job with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who entered the league with upside, but had only thrown nine passes in his first two seasons in the league and underwhelmed behind the scenes. Overall, their quarterback room looked like one of the worst in the league going into last season.

However, Mayfield surprised in a big way in his first season in Tampa Bay, completing 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while leading the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record, a division title, and a playoff victory. This off-season, the Buccaneers had a decision to make on Mayfield long-term and opted to keep him on a 3-year, 100 million dollar deal, a big raise over last season, but a necessary contract to keep him after his performance in 2023.

Mayfield’s history of inconsistency is still concerning though. He isn’t a complete one-year wonder, as the 94.6 QB rating he had last season was his third season over 90 in QB rating in six seasons in the league, but in his other three seasons, he has combined for 59.9% completion, 6.99 YPA, 49 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, a QB rating of just 80.2 in 40 starts. In addition to potential regression from Mayfield, another concern for the Buccaneers is that they were lucky to have the success they had a year ago. Not only did they play in the weakest division in football in 2023, a division that should be better this season with Kirk Cousins joining the Falcons, but they also had a -0.33 yards per play differential and a -2.75% first down rate differential. 

The Buccaneers did win a playoff game, but they also got lucky with that, as they faced an Eagles team that was in complete freefall at the end of the season. If the Buccaneers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely have to be better than they were in 2023 and that doesn’t appear to be the case for this team. With Baker Mayfield’s new expensive contract and lingering cap issues from the Brady era, the Buccaneers didn’t have much financial flexibility this off-season to improve this roster. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, this team likely will in terms of win total and, if he does regress significantly, the Buccaneers will have a hard time being competitive, even in the weaker NFC.

Mayfield will continue being backed up by Kyle Trask, who still barely has any NFL experience, adding just one more pass attempt to his career total in 2023. He’s still only in his age 26 season and came into the league with a lot of upside, so he’s not a bad backup option, but there are also much better backups than him around the league. If he had to start in Mayfield’s absence for an extended period of time, he could easily struggle, which would make it hard for this Buccaneers’ team to consistently win games.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The strength of this offense last season was their top-2 wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who were one of three wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2023. That was actually the 4th time in the past five seasons that Evans and Godwin had both surpassed 1000 yards receiving in the same season, with the one exception being a season in which Godwin still had 840 yards receiving, despite being limited to 12 games by injuries.

Evans has actually surpassed 1000 yards receiving in all ten seasons of his career, shattering the previous record to start a career. Over those ten seasons, Evans has averaged a 76/1168/9 slash line per season, with 2.06 yards per route run, while missing just nine total games. Evans is now going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, possibly even this season, but he’s starting from such a high base point that, even if he does decline, he should remain an above average receiver and could possibly still surpass 1000 yards receiving for the 11th straight season. The Buccaneers kept him as a free agent this off-season on a 2-year, 41 million dollar deal.

Godwin is younger, still only going into his age 28 season, and, while he hasn’t been as good as Evans in his career, he still has an average of 1.94 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league and, if Evans declines noticeably this season, Godwin could easily end up as the Buccaneers’ de facto #1 receiver. Barring a massive decline from Evans, he and Godwin should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league again in 2024.

The rest of this receiving corps is still a big concern though, as the Buccaneers were unable to make significant upgrades to what was a very thin group a year ago. Running back Rachaad White was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 64/549/3 slash line and he only averaged 1.22 yards per route run. Tight end Cade Otton was fourth on the team with a 47/455/4 slash line, an underwhelming total considering he played 1,063 total snaps, most in the NFL by a tight end. He averaged just 0.80 yards per route run and 6.79 yards per target. Trey Palmer, their 3rd receiver, was fifth on the team with a 39/385/3 slash line and he averaged just 0.84 yards per route run and 5.66 yards per target. After Palmer, the Buccaneers didn’t have another pass catcher with at least 100 yards receiving. 

White is an above average pass catcher for a running back, averaging 1.13 yards per route run as a rookie in 2022 and producing as a receiver in college as well, but it’s a concern when a running back is your third option in the passing game. Otton is a 2022 4th round pick who could theoretically be better in year three in 2024, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting tight end, with just 0.82 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. He’ll continue being backed up by Ko Kieft, a 2022 6th round pick who has caught just 8 passes in two seasons in the league with 0.73 yards per route run.

Trey Palmer could remain the #3 receiver, but he’ll at least have some competition for his job, which is good because he was only a 6th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and doesn’t have a high upside. In this year’s draft, the Buccaneers used a third round pick on Jalen McMillan, who could have a big role in year one. He could struggle through growing pains, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Palmer, both in the short-term and in the long-term.

The Buccaneers also signed veteran Sterling Shepard in free agency. He has a decent 1.45 yards per route run average in his career, but he missed 34 of 66 possible games from 2019-2022, fell to 0.63 yards per route run and 2.59 yards per target in 2023, and now is going into his age 31 season, so he’d be a very underwhelming #3 receiver and isn’t even a lock to make the final roster. The Buccaneers have a great wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the rest of this receiving corps is a mess, which is a concern and would especially be a concern if either Evans or Godwin missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Buccaneers’ running game was also a big weakness last season, as they ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.44. Run blocking was a big part of the problem, as they ranked 29th on PFF in terms of team run blocking grade, but their running backs were part of the problem as well. Lead back Rachaad White averaged just 3.64 YPC with 6 touchdowns on 272 carries and had just 2.53 yards per carry after contact with just 39 broken tackles, giving him a below average elusive rating of 45.9. A 3rd round pick in 2022, White also only averaged 3.71 yards per carry with an elusive rating of 31.3 as a rookie. He’s only in his age 25 season and could take a step forward in year three, but his career is off to an underwhelming start.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers won’t have much choice but to give White a big role again, only adding 4th round rookie Bucky Irving to the mix this off-season. Irving is a good pass catcher and can provide a change of pace, so he will probably see a few touches per game as the backup in his rookie season, but I wouldn’t expect more than that from him. The Buccaneers also have incumbent backup Chase Edmonds, who was second among Buccaneers running backs with 49 carries last season, averaging 3.59 YPC, while averaging just 0.99 yards per route run. 

Edmonds has averaged 4.38 YPC and 1.14 yards per route run in his career, but he’s never had more than 159 touches in a season, with an average of 101 touches per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 28 season, which is relatively old for a running back, and he has a largely redundant skill set to Irving, who is likely to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Aside from Irving and Edmonds, the Buccaneers’ only other running backs on the roster are 2023 undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who turned 15 rookie year carries into just 23 yards, as well as 2024 undrafted free agents DJ Williams and Ramon Jefferson, who are long shots to make the roster, even in a thin position group. Overall, this is one of the worst running back groups in the league.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggled mightily in run blocking last season, but they were actually a solid offensive line in pass protection, ranking 10th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The strength of this line is the tackle position. Tristan Wirfs was one of the best left tackles in the league with a 81.1 PFF grade. It was his first season on the left side, but the 2020 1st round pick previously excelled at right tackle, with PFF grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 across his first three seasons in the league. Still only in his age 25 season, Wirfs should remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come and could possibly have further untapped upside.

In Wirfs’ old spot at right tackle, the Buccaneers got a breakout year from 2022 2nd round pick Luke Goedeke, who had a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Goedeke struggled mightily as a rookie, with a 43.7 PFF grade in 8 starts, but all of those starts except one came at guard and Goedeke seemed to be a lot more comfortable on the outside. It’s possible he regresses in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned the corner and will remain an above average right tackle, with the upside to potentially be even better in 2024 and beyond. Wirfs and Goedeke will be backed up again by Justin Skule, who has only had to play 35 snaps over the past three seasons, but who made 12 starts in 2019 and 2020, with a 62.3 PFF grade across 545 snaps and a 45.4 PFF grade across 255 snaps respectively. He’s a middling swing tackle and the Buccaneers will obviously be hoping he remains on the bench for most of the season again.

While the Buccaneers’ tackles played well in 2023, the interior of this offensive line was a big weakness in 2023. Center should be a lot better in 2024, as the Buccaneers will be replacing Robert Hainsey, who had a 52.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, with first round pick Graham Barton, who figures to be a big upgrade right away. The Buccaneers will also be hoping for more out of a 2023 2nd round pick at right guard, Cody Mauch, who had a 44.7 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but has the upside to be better in year two. He has a long way to go to even be an average starter though and could easily continue struggling in 2024.

At left guard, the Buccaneers will likely continue getting poor play. Aaron Stinnie, who had a 56.6 PFF grade across 717 snaps, and Matt Feiler, who had a 54.7 PFF grade across 386 snaps, are no longer with the team, but their replacement options, veteran free agent additions Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, are equally underwhelming options. Bredeson started 16 games for the Giants in 2023, but struggled mightily with a 42.1 PFF grade. The 2020 4th round pick has started 25 games in four seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. Opeta, meanwhile, has just 10 starts in five seasons in the league, with 6 of them coming in 2023, when he had a 53.2 PFF grade. 

Bredeson’s 1-year deal is worth a little more, 3 million vs. 1.375 million, so he should be considered the favorite for the job, but both players figure to struggle and it’s possible both players see starts as the Buccaneers try to find a solution at the position. The Buccaneers could also try Robert Hainsey at guard and he was better as a 17-game starter in 2022 (66.7 PFF grade) than he was in 2023 when he struggled, but he’s only ever played center at the professional level. The Buccaneers could also keep Hainsey at center and try the rookie Graham Barton at guard, but they seem to prefer him at center. Either way, the Buccaneers are likely to have at least one position of significant weakness upfront, possibly two if Cody Mauch can’t take a big step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

With limited financial flexibility this off-season, the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Shaq Barrett, ahead of a 15 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024. Barrett was set to be in his age 32 season this season, so the decision to move on from him made some sense, but he was still coming off of a good season and will be missed. He only had 4.5 sacks, but added 7 hits and a 13.8% pressure rate, while playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall PFF grade of 75.3 across 651 snaps.

To replace Barrett, the Buccaneers used a second round pick on Chris Braswell and will probably give expanded roles to 2021 1st round pick Joe Tyron-Shoyinka and 2023 3rd round pick Yaya Diaby, who are both only going into their age 25 seasons and could have untapped upside. Diaby played 515 snaps as a rookie last season and had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, while Tyron-Shoyinka has received PFF grades of 51.5, 67.1, and 65.5 across an average of 620 snaps played per season through three seasons in the league. They’ll need to take a step forward to be anything more than decent starters in 2024, but both have to upside to do that. The rookie Braswell also has a high upside and, though he could have growing pains as a rookie, he could still be useful in a situational role.

The Buccaneers also bring back veteran Anthony Nelson, after he had a 60.2 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season. That’s largely in line with what the 2019 4th round pick has done in every season for his 5-year career to date, averaging 375 snaps per season and finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons. He only has a career 7.3% pressure rate, but he’s an above average run stopper who should be useful as a situational run stopper in base packages. Nelson, Diaby, Tyron-Shyonika, and Braswell should all have significant roles in a position group that has upside, but that could struggle to replace Shaq Barrett, their best edge defender a year ago.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Buccaneers’ bring back all of their key personnel from a year ago and they should all play similar roles. Vita Vea led the position group in 606 snaps and was by far the best of the bunch, with a 78.5 PFF grade. That was in line with his average season since entering the league as a first round pick in 2018, as he has averaged 536 snaps per season, while surpassing 70 on PFF in five of those six seasons. A solid run stuffer at 6-4 347, Vea is also a surprisingly good pass rusher for his size, with 23.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 79 career games. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Vea in 2024.

The rest of this group struggled a year ago, as Vea was their only interior defender who finished above 60 on PFF, but they do have a couple young players who could take a step forward in 2024. Calijah Kancey was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled mightily with a 46.6 PFF grade as a rookie. He was a decent interior pass rusher, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but was horrendous against the run, which pushed his overall grade down. 

Kancey will likely always be a much better pass rusher than run stopper, but he has the upside to be significantly better in both aspects this year in his second season in the league. Logan Hall, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He struggled mightily as a rookie with a 35.3 PFF grade across 403 snaps and was only better by default in 2023, with a 54.2 PFF grade across 542 snaps, but he’s still only in his age 24 season and came into the league with a high upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in his third season in the league and was at least a capable starter.

Veterans Greg Gaines and William Gholston remain as reserves, after playing 473 snaps and 244 snaps a year ago. Gaines had a 51.6 PFF grade, which was down from his previous two seasons as a starter with the Rams, when he had PFF grades of 67.9 and 59.1 across snap counts of 780 and 731 respectively. Still in his age 28 season, Gaines could bounce back in 2024, but he’ll likely remain a reserve regardless. Gholston, meanwhile, is going into his 12th season in the league and his age 33 season, so he’s probably getting to the end of his line, but he’s been a capable run stopper for most of his career and could remain a capable run stopper in a limited situational role for another season. This is the same group of interior defenders as a year ago, when they all struggled except Vita Vea, but they could get more positive contributions from their young players Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall in 2024.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Buccaneers didn’t retain Devin White in free agency this off-season, after five seasons as an every down linebacker in Tampa, but that isn’t a big loss because he struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade across 893 snaps in 14 games last season. The Buccaneers don’t have a good replacement for him though. In White’s old spot, it will either be KJ Britt, SirVocea Dennis, or JJ Russell, or possibly some combination of the three in a rotation. All three are highly inexperienced. 

Dennis was a 5th round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, but only across 101 snaps. Britt was a 5th round pick in 2021 and showed some promise on 160 snaps last season, but he has only played 234 total snaps in three seasons in the league. Russell went undrafted in 2022 and has played 117 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. There is some upside here, but it’s also very possible that all of them could struggle in an extended role. 

The Buccaneers did bring back Lavonte David as a free agent and he’s been an above average every down linebacker for them for a long-time, but he’s now going into his age 34 season. He still had a 73.4 PFF grade across 956 snaps in 15 games in 2023, his tenth finish over 70 in twelve seasons in the league, all with the Buccaneers. He’s also finished above 60 on PFF in every season in the league, with five seasons above 80. It’s possible he could avoid declining for another season, but at his age, the possibility of a significant decline is a real concern, especially since the rest of the Buccaneers’ linebacking corps is highly inexperienced. They need David to continue playing at a high level to elevate the rest of this position group.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Buccaneers also parted ways with long-time starting cornerback Carlton Davis this off-season. Davis is coming off of a down year with a 58.2 PFF grade across 715 snaps in 12 games and the Buccaneers saved 14.5 million and got a third round pick by trading him to the Lions, but they didn’t really replace him and will be relying on young cornerbacks taking on bigger roles in his absence. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien, a 2022 5th round pick and a 2023 undrafted free agent, played 784 snaps and 718 snaps respectively last season and will likely see expanded roles in 2024, playing in three cornerback sets along with Jamel Dean, a long-time starter who played 711 snaps while starting all 13 games he played last season.

Izien flashed potential with a 66.8 PFF grade last season, but the fact that he went undrafted a year ago can’t be completely ignored at this point and it wouldn’t surprise me if he regressed in 2024, especially in an expanded role. McCollum, on the other hand, struggled last season with a 52.1 PFF grade, after a 46.3 PFF grade on 278 snaps as a rookie, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he never developed into even a capable starter. Dean, meanwhile, had a 68.3 PFF grade in 2023 and finished above 70 in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should continue playing at an above average level in 2024, although it’s worth noting he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league and will probably miss at least some time again in 2024.

The Buccaneers did add some veteran depth at the cornerback position this off-season, signing Tavierre Thomas and Bryce Hall, but it’s likely that neither are real candidates for a starting job. Thomas has PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 over the past three seasons, but on snap counts of just 639, 409, and 352 and he’s never played more snaps than that in any season in the league. He could see a situational role as a slot specialist, but he doesn’t have much experience playing on the outside. Hall, meanwhile, is a 2020 5th round pick who saw significant action early in his career and was serviceable, with PFF grades of 59.9 and 63.2 on snap counts of 547 and 1,171, but he’s only seen 153 snaps as a reserve over the past two seasons combined. He could probably be a decent starter in a pinch, but he’ll likely remain a reserve to begin the season.

The Buccaneers’ best defensive player is probably safety Antoine Winfield, who excelled with a position leading 91.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023. That was the best season of his career, but the 2020 2nd round pick not a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 86.1 and 77.8 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he could easily continue being one of the top safeties in the league in 2024 and for years to come. The Buccaneers rightfully rewarded him with a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar contract this off-season after franchise tagging him, which makes him the highest paid defensive back in the league in terms of average annual salary.

At the other safety spot, free agent acquisition Jordan Whitehead figures to start, after signing for 9 million over 2 years this off-season. Ryan Neal (580 snaps) and Dee Delaney (449 snaps) split snaps opposite Winfield last season and they were an underwhelming duo, with Neal struggling (46.6 PFF grade) and Delaney being average (63.4 PFF grade). It wouldn’t be hard for Whitehead to be an upgrade, after starting all 64 games he’s played in the past four seasons with solid PFF grades of 66.3, 74.9, 66.1, and 68.2 respectively. The Buccaneers also added additional safety depth by drafting Tykee Smith in the 3rd round and he could have a situational role in obvious passing situations. The Buccaneers have some concerns at the cornerback position, but this is a pretty good secondary overall, led by dominant safety Antoine Winfield.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers were a surprising playoff qualifier a year ago, but they could easily take a big step back in terms of win total this season. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Buccaneers were a mediocre team a year ago, even before you take into account their weak schedule. This season, their schedule is tougher, their division is stronger, and their roster is about the same, if not worse than a year ago, especially if quarterback Baker Mayfield regresses, a strong possibility, considering his inconsistent history. Even if Mayfield doesn’t regress, it seems unlikely this team will qualify for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

The Falcons had a very stable quarterback situation from 2008-2021, with Matt Ryan consistently playing at an above average level, while only missing three total games due to injury across 14 seasons. The Falcons never quite got the supporting cast around him right, so they only made one Super Bowl in that span, which they lost, but that generally wasn’t Ryan’s fault. In fact, even in the season they made the Super Bowl they still had a below average defense, with the team being carried by Ryan in an MVP season.

The Falcons moved on from Ryan two off-seasons ago, trading him to the Colts for a third round pick, which proved to be a smart move, as Ryan went on to play one mediocre season in Indianapolis before retiring, but in the two seasons since losing Ryan, the Falcons have struggled to find an adequate replacement. In their first off-season without Ryan, the Falcons paired veteran journeyman Marcus Mariota with third round rookie Desmond Ridder. Mariota was mediocre while starting the first 13 games of the season and Ridder wasn’t any better when he took over as the starter for the final 4 games of the season.

The next off-season, the Falcons made Ridder their full-time starter, hoping for a second year leap from their young quarterback, and signed veteran Taylor Heinicke as the backup. That second year leap didn’t happen though and Ridder was benched on multiple occasions for Heinicke, who wasn’t much better. In total, the Falcons completed 61.7% of their passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions in 2023, good for a QB rating of 80.5 that ranked 27th in the NFL.

Fed up with mediocrity at the quarterback position and recognizing they were a quarterback away from being the favorite in the weak NFC South, which the Falcons had a shot at winning last season even with poor quarterback play, the Falcons made a big splash signing in free agency this off-season, poaching veteran Kirk Cousins away from the Vikings on a 4-year, 180 million dollar deal that makes him the 9th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual value. The Falcons then traded away Desmond Ridder to the Cardinals in a move that got them more wide receiver depth.

Cousins has completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.64 YPA, 252 touchdowns, and 91 interceptions in 136 starts over the past nine seasons, which would be a substantial upgrade under center for the Falcons, but he comes with some risk, now going into his age 36 season and coming off of a 2023 season ended by a torn achilles. Even if Cousins doesn’t decline in 2024, the track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid elite quarterback money is concerning. 

The only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and still won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. Cousins is just below that cap percentage threshold in year one of his contract, but he will almost definitely be above it for the remainder of his deal. Cousins is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only on a team loaded with talent, the kind of talent that is very hard to keep around a quarterback who is one of the highest paid in the league. Adding Cousins makes the Falcons the favorite to win the NFC South and they could even win a playoff game or two in the weak NFC, but it’s hard to imagine them competing at the highest level in Cousins’ tenure in Atlanta, and that’s even assuming he doesn’t decline, as an aging quarterback coming off of a significant injury.

In the draft, the Falcons made the very surprising decision to add another quarterback with their 8th overall pick, taking Michael Penix. In a vacuum, Penix was a good pick there, as he could develop into a franchise quarterback while he’s still on his cheap rookie deal, which would allow the Falcons to load up on talent around him and actually compete at the highest level for a Super Bowl, but when you pair his selection with the Cousins signing, the move is very strange. 

Cousins is guaranteed 100 million over the next two seasons, so the Falcons don’t have a clear path to get Penix onto the field until the cheap part of his rookie deal is halfway over, at which point the Falcons will only have one season to evaluate Penix before deciding whether or not to pick up his expensive 5th year option. Penix is also pretty NFL ready as far as quarterback prospects go and, if the Falcons liked him, they could have known that he would be available to them with the 8th overall pick, or by trading up just a couple spots, so the expensive signing of Cousins was pretty unnecessary and the Falcons could have used that money elsewhere, like on defense, which they mostly neglected this off-season. 

Additionally, if they liked Cousins enough to give him all that money, they could have used the 8th overall pick on defense, or traded down and gotten multiple defensive players, in an attempt to go all in with an aging veteran under center, rather than using a high draft pick on a player who is unlikely to make much of an impact over the next two seasons unless Cousins gets hurt or struggles so much that he is benched, in spite of his salary. The Falcons’ quarterback room is a lot better than it was a year ago and it’s a lot better than most team’s quarterback rooms, with two starting caliber options and Taylor Heinicke (84.2 QB rating in 29 career starts) still on the roster as an overqualified third quarterback, after taking a pay cut down to just 1.21 million, but from a team building and allocation of resources perspective, the Falcons’ quarterback decisions this off-season were strange.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Prior to selecting Penix in the first round in this year’s draft, the Falcons had used their last three first round picks on offensive skill position players, taking tight end Kyle Pitts 4th overall in 2021, wide receiver Drake London 8th overall in 2022, and running back Bijan Robinson 8th overall in 2023, but none of them have been able to reach their potential because of the Falcons’ quarterback situation and, subsequently, because of the run heavy nature of the Falcons’ offense over the past two seasons, with 1,081 rush attempts to 945 pass attempts combined in 2022 and 2023. 

In 2024, Pitts and London will be the centerpieces of the Falcons’ upgraded passing game, while Robinson figures to have a big passing game role as well, as he’s a very talented pass catcher for a running back, finishing with a 58/487/4 slash line and 1.16 yards per route run as a rookie, when he was third on the team in targets with 86. Pitts came into the league as one of the best pass catching tight end prospects in NFL history and was the highest drafted tight end ever. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with a 68/1026/1 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in 17 games in the final season of the Matt Ryan era, but, as the Falcons quarterback play has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, so has Pitts’ production, as he’s finished with slash lines of 28/356/2 in 10 games and 53/667/3 in 17 games in 2022 and 2023, with a yards per route run average of 1.51 over the past two seasons combined. 

Now with a significantly upgraded quarterback room and still only in his age 24 season with a massive upside, Pitts should have plenty of bounce back potential and still has time to develop into one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league for years to come. Drake London also has a huge upside, after posting slash lines of 72/866/4 and 69/905/2 with a combined 1.96 yards per route run average in his first two seasons in the league. Still only in his age 23 season, with an improved quarterback room and a more pass heavy offense, London has a huge statistical upside in 2024.

The Falcons also made a significant financial investment in another wide receiver in free agency, signing ex-Bear Darnell Mooney to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal. Mooney had a thousand yard year in 2021, with a 81/1055/4 slash line, but he wasn’t that efficient that season, averaging just 1.72 yards per route run and 7.54 yards per target and, in his other three seasons in the league, he only has 1.18 yards per route run and 6.99 yards per target, while averaging just 513 yards per season. Mooney never had good quarterback play with the Bears and, still only in his age 27 season, could have significant upside on a better offense in Atlanta, but the Falcons are guaranteeing him 27 million over the next two seasons, which is a lot of money to risk on the hope that Mooney will be significantly better in a better situation.

Behind Pitts, London, and Mooney, the rest of this receiving corps is thin and unsettled. Wide receivers Van Jefferson (356 snaps), Mack Hollins (343 snaps), and Scott Miller (267 snaps), as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith (653 snaps) and MyCole Pruitt (401 snaps) all played significant snaps last season and weren’t brought back for 2024. They weren’t a great group of supporting pass catchers, but Hollins and Pruitt averaged 1.56 and 1.75 yards per route run respectively in limited roles, Smith averaged 1.55 yards per route run and was third on the team in receiving yardage with a 50/582/3 slash line, and, while the Falcons made some additions to this receiving corps this off-season, they didn’t replace all of them and, as a result, have a pretty top-heavy group.

The third wide receiver job will likely either go to KhaDarel Hodge, a veteran who played 370 snaps for the Falcons last season, or Rondale Moore, a 2021 2nd round pick who the Falcons acquired from the Cardinals in exchange for Desmond Ridder. Hodge had just a 1.27 yards per route run average in a limited role last season and has a career 1.28 yards per route run average with 57 catches in 89 career games and a career high of 14 catches in a season, so Moore is probably the favorite for the job.

Moore is also a pretty underwhelming option though, as he hasn’t lived up to the potential he had when the Cardinals drafted him 49th overall three years ago, averaging just 1.17 yards per route run and 400 yards per season. He’s only in his age 24 season and could still have untapped upside, but, even still, he’s underwhelming as a #3 wide receiver. The Falcons also used a 6th round pick on wide receiver Casey Washington, who could work his way into a role as the season goes on, but he’s a pretty underwhelming option too.

At tight end, the Falcons signed ex-49ers backup tight end Charlie Woerner to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and he’ll be the #2 tight end behind Pitts, but he has just a 0.55 yards per route run average in his career with 11 catches in 65 games and will mostly just be used as a solid blocker. Expect the Falcons to funnel targets to Pitts, London, Mooney, and the running back Robinson, in a top heavy receiving corps that has a high upside, but that also would be in significant trouble if any of their top pass catchers missed significant time with injury.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Falcons won’t run the ball as much this season as they did a year ago, when they ranked third in the NFL in team carries with 522, but that will probably come much more at the expense of Tyler Allgeier, who had 186 carries a year ago, than Bijan Robinson, who had 214, and Robinson also figures to be more productive in the passing game than he was a year ago, due to the Falcons improved quarterback situation and increased passing volume. Robinson had a 4.52 YPC average as a rookie and has the upside to become one of the top all-around backs in the league in his second season in 2024, now on a much better offense than a year ago.

Allgeier only averaged 3.67 YPC last season, down significantly from 4.93 YPC on 210 carries as a 5th round rookie in 2022, but that was mostly because he didn’t have as many big plays, going from 13 carries of 15+ yards in 2022, which went for 316 yards (30.5% of his total) to just 3 carries of 15+ yards in 2023, which went for 72 yards (10.5% of his total). In terms of carry success rate, Allgeier only dropped from 51.9% to 48.4%. Allgeier also has a decent 1.16 yards per route run average in his career. Robinson is the better back and figures to be a true feature back in 2024, but Allgeier is a good backup to have.

The Falcons won’t need much depth behind Robinson and Allgeier, but they did use a 6th round pick on Jase McClellan, who will give them an insurance policy if either Robinson or Allgeier miss significant time with injury. He would probably be underwhelming if forced into a significant role in year one, but he’s not a bad 3rd option to have, behind a talented top-two. Overall, this is one of the best running back rooms in the NFL.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line has been the strength of this offense for the past few years and they bring back all five of their starters from a year ago, including three who have been starters for the Falcons for at least five straight seasons. Left guard Matthew Bergeron is the newest member of this offensive line and was also the Falcons’ worst offensive line starter a year ago, as the 2023 2nd round pick had a 59.1 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie last season. He has the upside to be significantly better in year two though and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he took a step forward and was at least a capable starter in 2024.

Center Drew Dalman is the second newest member of this offensive line. A 2021 4th round pick, Dalman was a backup as a rookie, but has started all 31 games he’s played in the two seasons since, jumping from a solid 65.9 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2022 to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023, excelling as a run blocker. Dalman is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and could regress a little bit this season, but he’s also only going into his age 26 season and could have permanently turned a corner as a player. Even if he hasn’t, he has a good chance to remain an above average starter in 2024 and beyond.

The other three starters on this offensive line, left tackle Jake Matthews, right guard Chris Lindstrom, and right tackle Kaleb McGary are all former first round picks by the Falcons, Matthews going 6th in 2014 and Lindstrom and McGary going 14th and 31st respectively in 2019. Matthews has been highly consistent in his career, finishing above 70 in PFF in each of the past nine seasons in the league, starting with his second season in the league in 2015. His 71.2 PFF grade in 2023 was actually the worst since his rookie season and, now going into his age 32 season, it’s possible he’s on the decline, but he’s starting from a pretty high base point and has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter for another season.

Lindstrom is the best of the bunch, impressing early on in his career with PFF grades of 66.6 and 77.1 in his first two seasons in the league, before developing into one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 83.7, 95.0, and 87.6. Still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, Lindstrom should remain one of the best guards in the league in 2024 and beyond. McGary, on the other hand, took a few years to develop, receiving mediocre grades of 53.0, 64.3, and 62.8 across his first three seasons in the league, actually getting benched on one occasion, but he took a big step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2022, finishing with a 86.6 PFF grade and didn’t take a big step back in 2023, with another impressive grade of 75.5. He seems to have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter and, still only in his age 29 season, he should have at least another prime season left in him.

The Falcons’ depth options remain the same as last year. Their best backup is tackle Storm Norton, who had a 68.3 PFF grade in three starts last season. Norton was a starter earlier in his career, making 15 starts in 2021, and he wasn’t bad with a 60.3 PFF grade, but he’s best off as a good swing tackle rather than a starter. At guard and center, the Falcons’ top reserves are less impressive, as backup center Ryan Neuzil is a 2021 undrafted free agent who was underwhelming with a 55.3 PFF grade in the first four starts of his career in 2023, when Dalman missed time with injury, while backup guard Kyle Hinton is a 2020 7th round pick who has played just 97 snaps in his career. Overall, the Falcons have an above average starting five on the offensive line with their biggest concern being depth.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons had defensive needs that they didn’t address this off-season, as their big free agent signing and their first round draft pick were both quarterbacks, leaving them little resources for the rest of the roster. The Falcons ranked 24th in defensive DVOA a year ago and there is reason to believe they’ve gotten worse on that side of the ball since then. One of those reasons is the loss of Calais Campbell, who had a 80.0 PFF grade on 712 snaps last season, excelling against the run and adding 6.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate, while splitting time between the edge and the interior in pass rush situations.

The Falcons also lost veteran edge defender Bud Dupree this off-season, although that isn’t as big of a loss, as he had a 56.0 PFF grade across 725 snaps, while pressuring the quarterback at just a 8.8% rate. To replace Dupree and Campbell’s edge snaps, the Falcons used a 3rd round pick on Bralen Trice, added veteran James Smith-Williams in free agency, and will probably give bigger snap counts to 2022 2nd round pick Arnold Ebiketie, 2023 3rd round pick Zach Harrison, and 2023 3rd round pick DeAngelo Malone, who saw snap counts of just 385, 343, and 3 respectively a year ago.

Ebiketie has the most upside of the aforementioned players. Not only was he the highest drafted of the bunch, but he has been pretty decent in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across 901 total snaps, while totaling 8.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Expect him to play a career high in snaps in 2024 and he could easily be at least a capable starter, with the upside for more. Harrison was also decent in his limited role as a rookie in 2023, with a 63.0 PFF overall grade, but he was much more effective against the run than as a pass rusher, with just a 7.9% pressure rate. He’ll also likely see an expanded role in 2024, but he could still primarily be a base package run stopper who comes off the field in obvious passing situations.

DeAngelo Malone, on the other end, has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing 219 snaps and managing just a 8.2% pressure rate. He still could have some untapped upside, but is mostly only in the mix for a role based on where he was drafted and the Falcons’ lack of depth at the edge defender position. James Smith-Williams, meanwhile, has played 437 snaps per season over the past three seasons, but the 2020 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, while totaling just a career 7.2% pressure rate, and he is unlikely to have much, if any untapped upside left at this point. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of them play behind the rookie Bralen Trice, even if Trice is raw and could struggle in a significant rookie year role.

Veteran Lorenzo Carter remains and will probably continue to have a similar role as last season, when he played just 431 snaps. Carter has been a decent player throughout his career, with PFF grades over 60 in all six seasons in the league on an average of 559 snaps per season, including a 67.0 grade in 2023, but he’s also never finished above 70.7 for a season, which came back in 2019, and he’s a better run defender than pass rusher, with just 21.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate in 83 career games. The Falcons have some young players with upside, but overall this looks like an underwhelming position group, one that could have benefited from a more significant investment in the off-season.

Grade: C+

Interior Defender

The biggest investment the Falcons made on defense this off-season was using their second round pick on interior defender Ruke Orhorhoro. He will help replace Calais Campbell’s interior snaps, as well as the snaps left behind by Albert Huggins, who won’t be missed after a 47.8 PFF grade across 317 snaps in 2023. Orhorhoro profiles as a future starter and should be a useful rotational player as a rookie. The Falcons should also get a healthier year out of Grady Jarrett, who was limited to 318 snaps in 8 games by injury in 2023. 

Jarrett still had a 70.1 PFF grade in 2023 and he’s finished above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including seven seasons above 70, and he’s totaled 34 sacks, 85 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 135 career games, while playing the run at an above average level as well. However, Jarrett is now going into his age 31 season, so he might not play at the same level in 2024 as he did in 2023. Jarrett has already seemed to decline from his prime, when he had four straight seasons above 80 on PFF from 2017-2020, before maxing out at 71.3 over the past three seasons, and he could decline further in 2024. He should play more snaps than a year ago, but he might not play at the same level.

David Onyemata is also getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with an 83.3 PFF grade across 594 snaps in 2023, the 2nd highest PFF grade of his 8-year career, but it seems likely he won’t be quite as good again in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of the past seven seasons, playing the run well and totaling 27 sacks, 47 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate in 104 games over that stretch, but his age is becoming a big concern.

Onyemata, Jarrett, and Orhororo will be the Falcons’ top-3 interior defenders this season, but there is still room for deep reserve snaps behind them, which will likely to go Ta’Quon Graham, who played 364 snaps in 2023, and/or Brandon Dorius, another interior defender they drafted this year, selected in the 4th round. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has played 381 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and has mostly been unspectacular, playing the run decently, but managing just a 4.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Dorius, meanwhile, is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. The Falcons have an accomplished interior defender duo of David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett and a relatively high draft pick in Ruke Orhorhoro behind them, but Onyemata and Jarrett are getting older and Orhorhoro is only a rookie, so there are still some concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The personnel remains the same in the linebacking corps, but the Falcons should get a healthier season out of Troy Andersen. Andersen started week 1 and week 3 last season and played 139 of a possible 147 snaps in those two games, with a game missed due to injury in between, but then he suffered a season-ending injury after week 3. He’s not a guarantee to get his every down job back in 2024 though, as backup Nate Landman significantly outplayed him in his absence, with a PFF grade of 72.0 across 809 snaps, especially excelling against the run. Landman went undrafted in 2022 and played just 22 snaps as a rookie, so his impressive 2023 season kind of came out of nowhere and there’s a chance he regresses in 2024 or cedes the job back to Andersen, but Landman should at least be a high level backup. 

Andersen, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and came into the league with a lot more upside than Landman, but he struggled with a 40.2 PFF grade on 481 snaps as a part-time player in his rookie season and wasn’t much better in two games before getting hurt in 2023, receiving a 50.6 grade from PFF. He still has upside and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but Landman still seems like the better option to start, even if he regresses from his surprisingly impressive 2023 campaign. Another option is the Falcons platoon the two linebackers, with Landman playing in base packages, maximizing his abilities against the run, and Andersen as a sub package linebacker who plays in obvious passing situations. However it shakes out, it seems unlikely that either one will be as good in 2024 as Landman was in 2023.

Kaden Elliss remains as the other starter, locked in after an impressive 2023 season in which he had a 75.4 PFF grade across 1,082 snaps, playing well in coverage, against the run, and as a blitzer. That was a career high in snaps for the 2019 7th round pick, but he had a 81.5 PFF grade across 632 snaps in 2022, so his impressive season in an every down role in 2023 didn’t come out of nowhere. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season and relatively proven at this point, Elliss should remain an above average every down player for at least one more season in 2024. The Falcons also used a 5th round pick on JD Bertrand to give themselves even more depth in an overall pretty talented linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback is another position of need the Falcons could have addressed this off-season, but didn’t. Top cornerback AJ Terrell had a 74.6 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and slot specialist Dee Alford also had a solid grade at 70.0, across 531 snaps, but he’s only an option on the slot and the other options the Falcons tried outside opposite Terrell all struggled last season, with Jeff Okudah, Clark Phillips, Mike Hughes, and Tre Flowers playing 596 snaps, 571 snaps, 333 snaps, and 200 snaps respectively and finishing with PFF grades in the 50s.

The Falcons only added Antonio Hamilton and Kevin King to the mix this off-season. Hamilton has had decent PFF grades of 65.4, 68.5, and 64.7 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 313, 420, and 559 respectively, with the latter being a career high for the 8-year veteran, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s nothing more than a backup option, while King is a former 2nd round pick, but he hasn’t played in two full seasons due to injuries and, before that, missed 29 games in the previous five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those five seasons, so he’s nothing more than a flier who could easily fail to make the final roster.

Clark Phillips and Mike Hughes remain from last season and the former is probably the favorite to start outside opposite Terrell. Phillips wasn’t horrible last season, with a 59.0 PFF grade in a part-time role, while starting five of the seven games he played, and he was only a 4th round rookie, so he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he could also be further exposed in a much bigger role in 2024. Hughes, meanwhile, is a former 1st round pick bust of the Minnesota Vikings, who has played just 387 snaps per season in six seasons in the league with four teams, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons, including the previous two. He’d likely only be a starting option if Phillips struggles and, in that case, Hughes would likely also struggle in a starting role.

Dee Alford was impressive on the slot last season and also had a decent 64.8 PFF grade across 248 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2022, but he’s probably too small at 5-11 175 to hold up in a significant role outside, so he’ll remain a solid slot specialist at best, albeit still an inexperienced one. Fortunately, the Falcons do at least have one good outside cornerback in AJ Terrell, a 2020 1st round pick who has received PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, and 74.6 in four seasons in the league, while starting all 61 games played. Only in his age 26 season in 2024, he should remain an above average starter and could potentially have more untapped upside.

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was probably safety Jessie Bates, who excelled with a 90.6 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among safeties. It wasn’t Bates’ first season as an elite safety, but he has been pretty inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 respectively and grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. He’s still only in his age 28 season and could repeat last season’s dominant performance, but he could also regress, perhaps significantly.

At the other safety spot, Richie Grant and DeMarcco Hellams will compete to start. A 2021 2nd round pick, Grant has started 32 games over the past two seasons, but he struggled with a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023 and lost his starting job late in the season to Hellams, even though Hellams was just a 7th round rookie. Hellams wasn’t bad in his limited action, with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps, but Grant was better in 2022 than he was in 2023, with a 64.9 PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took his starting job back and bounced back in 2024. If Hellams wins the job, he could continue being a capable starter, but he could also struggle, because he’s inexperienced and a projection to a bigger role. This isn’t a bad secondary, with a pair of high level talents in AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates, but it’s a bit of a top-heavy group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Falcons significantly upgraded their quarterback room this off-season by adding Kirk Cousins and then Michael Penix behind him, which should unlock an offense that has a lot of talent around the quarterback. However, Cousins isn’t an elite quarterback and the Falcons still have too many holes, especially on defense, to be considered a true Super Bowl contender. They should be considered the favorite to win the weak NFC South and, in the weaker NFC, they have a good chance to win a playoff game or two, which is a lot more than they’ve accomplished in recent years, but they’re not on the short list of teams who could win it all.

Update: The Falcons upgraded their defense with the additions of Matt Judon and Justin Simmons. They’re still not a top contender, but they could win a lot of regular season games, given that they have probably the weakest schedule in the league.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC South

New Orleans Saints 2024 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

When long-time Saints quarterback and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints were left in a tough situation. They had consistently borrowed future cap space to keep as much talent around Brees as possible in his later years, leading to a league best 49-15 regular season record from 2017-2020, but just three playoff victories and no Super Bowl appearances. Without Brees, the Saints could have opted to blow it up, go through a couple tough years, and reset their cap for the future. 

Instead, they opted to continue kicking the can down the road on their cap issues, in an attempt to remain relevant in the short-term, continuing to borrow future cap space. Now with three seasons in the books without Brees, that appears to have been the wrong choice. They haven’t been bad the past three seasons, but they haven’t been good either, combining for a 25-24 record with no playoff appearances and the future doesn’t look promising. 

The Saints had the 3rd oldest roster in the league in 2023, currently have the 6th oldest roster in the league heading into 2024, and are projected to be almost 100 million dollars over the cap in 2025, which will get increasingly difficult to continue kicking down the road, severely limiting their ability to field a talented roster in the future, especially as their core continues to age. It hasn’t helped that their recent drafts have not been good, especially at the top. Of the seven players they selected in the top-50 from 2020-2023, just one of them, wide receiver Chris Olave, played significant snaps in 2023 and finished above average on PFF. As a result of that, the Saints don’t have much in the way of promising young talent on cheap rookie contracts.

The Saints’ middling performance over the past few years has also kept them out of position to take a potential franchise quarterback atop the draft. Their initial attempts to replace Brees with cheaper veterans like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Trevor Siemian failed and, without the ability to add draft a promising quarterback, the Saints instead gave a big contract to aging veteran Derek Carr, who heads into his age 33 season in 2024, the second season of a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal.

Carr is not a bad quarterback, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 242 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in 159 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 68.4% completion, 7.08 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s not the kind of quarterback that can elevate a middling roster and he’s not getting any younger either, so it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point. The Saints have a pair of young quarterbacks behind him on the depth chart, 2023 4th round pick Jake Haener, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 5th round pick Spencer Rattler, but neither was remotely a high draft pick and it remains to be seen if either of them can even develop into a quality backup, let alone a potential future starter. Overall, it looks like the Saints are set for another season of middling at best play in 2024, with no long-term direction.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Saints’ high draft picks that hasn’t yet lived up to their draft slot in recent years is left tackle Trevor Penning, who has been limited to 541 snaps and six starts in two seasons since going 19th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, due to a combination of poor performance and injury. In fact, he’s been so underwhelming that the Saints are seemingly giving up on him already, using the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft on Taliese Fuaga. It wouldn’t be hard for Fuaga to be an upgrade on Andrus Peat, who had a 60.2 PFF grade as the Saints’ primary left tackle last season, before signing with the Raiders this off-season, but Fuaga is still just a rookie and could have growing pains in year one.

It’s possible Penning could still earn a starting job, either at left tackle, with Fuaga moving to guard, which he has the versatility to play, or Penning could potentially move to guard himself, to replace the now retired James Hurst, who had a 58.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Penning has a lot of talent and is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s too soon to completely write him off, but it’s very possible he’d continue struggling even if he did win a starting job and it’s more likely the Saints view him as the swing tackle now, behind Fuaga and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. 

Ramczyk has been a talented starter for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five seasons over 80, but, like most of the Saints’ talented players, he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 30 season in 2024 and it’s possible he’s already started to decline, as his 73.5 PFF grade in 2023 was a career worst. He would be declining from a high base point and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best days were behind him at this point or if he continued declining.

If Penning doesn’t start, the left guard job will likely go to 2023 4th round pick Nick Saldeveri, who played just 18 snaps as a rookie, or mediocre veteran Lucas Patrick, who is in his age 31 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including a 50.5 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Both Saldeveri and Patrick would almost definitely struggle as starters in 2024 and it’s possible both of them, along with possibly Penning, all see starts as the Saints try to find an answer at the position, an answer that’s probably not on the roster.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is another recent high draft pick that hasn’t really panned out. Ruiz has started 56 of the 62 games he’s played since the Saints selected him 24th overall in 2020, but he’s finished in the 50s on PFF in all four seasons, including a career worst 51.2 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Saints didn’t pick up his 5th year option for 2024, but they did extend him on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal at the beginning of last season, which seems like an overpay, given that he’s the 17th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could have untapped potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Center Erik McCoy is a highlight on this offensive line, as the 2019 2nd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (74 starts), including three seasons above 70. His 79.4 PFF grade in 2023 was a career best and he’s not necessarily going to be that good again in 2024, but he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he’s very much in the prime of his career, and he should remain at least an above average starter. The Saints have a couple bright spots on the offensive line in Erik McCoy and Ryan Ramczyk, but the latter is going into his 30s, and the rest of the group is underwhelming, with a rookie left tackle and likely below average starters at both guard positions.

Update: Ramczyk is not expected to play this season and may retire because of a nagging knee injury. This will hurt the Saints significantly and hurts their already underwhelming projection overall and on the offensive line, as Ramczyk was one of their best players and probably their best offensive lineman and now the Saints will have to start Trevor Penning in his absence.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receiver Chris Olave is the only high draft pick the Saints have made in the past few years that has panned out. Luckily, the 2022 #11 overall pick has panned out in a big way, with slash lines of 87/1123/5 and 72/1044/4 and a combined 2.23 yards per route run average over his first two seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, Olave’s best days could still be ahead of him and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2024 was his best season yet.

The Saints also found a steal in the 2022 draft with undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed flashed potential as a rookie with a 28/487/2 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average in a limited role. He wasn’t able to keep up that level of efficiency in a starting role in 2022, but he still had a solid season with a 46/719/5 slash line and a 1.67 yards per route run. He still only played 604 snaps last season, 40.3 snaps per game in 15 games, which was actually behind Michael Thomas, who averaged 49.0 snaps per game in 10 games. In five games when Thomas was out and Shaheed played, Shaheed averaged 42.8 snaps per game and had a 18/209/2 slash line, 61/711/7 over a 17-game season. With Thomas no longer with the team, Shaheed is likely to see a higher snap count and more receiving production in 2024.

Thomas only averaged 1.38 yards per route run last season with a 39/448/1 slash line, so he won’t be missed too much, but the Saints don’t have a good replacement for him. The third receiver job will likely go to 2023 6th round pick AT Perry, who had a 12/246/4 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average as a rookie, or Cedrick Wilson, a veteran who has been a mediocre reserve for most of his career, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and only surpassing 300 yards receiving once in six seasons in the league. Both are likely to be underwhelming options, even if they ultimately end up splitting snaps. The Saints also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Bub Means, who could work his way into a role down the stretch, though he would likely also struggle.

At tight end, Juwan Johnson (555 snaps), Foster Moreau (549 snaps), and Taysom Hill (425 snaps) all played roles last season and should play similar roles in 2023. Johnson was their primary receiving tight end, leading all Saints tight ends in catches, yards, and touchdowns. He only had a 37/368/4 slash line with a 1.19 yards per route run average though, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. He did have a better receiving year in 2022, with a 42/508/7 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has been underwhelming for most of his career, with a career 1.17 yards per route run average. The undersized 6-4 231 pounder is also a poor blocker.

Tayson Hill also primarily played in passing situations, although he’s a unique player. Not only did he have a 33/291/2 slash line with a 1.30 yards per route run average as a receiver, but he also carried the ball 81 times for 401 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.95 YPC) and threw 11 passes, completing 6 of them for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hill should have a similar role in 2024. The ultimate hybrid player throughout his career, Hill has 76 catches, 398 carries, and 298 pass attempts in the past six seasons, while averaging 346 snaps per season. Hill is now going into his age 34 season, so his athleticism could start to decline, but he should still be a useful situational player.

Foster Moreau, meanwhile, is mostly a blocking specialist, finishing the 2023 season with just a 21/193/1 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average. Moreau has mostly been a blocking specialist in five seasons in the league, but he’s a mediocre all-around tight end, averaging 1.25 yards per route run and mostly receiving mediocre run blocking grades. The Saints have a good #1 receiver in Chris Olave and a promising #2 receiver in Rashid Shaheed, but this is a top heavy receiving corps, with underwhelming tight end options and a lack of wide receiver depth.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara is used heavily in the passing game as well, as he had 86 targets, a 75/466/1 slash line, and a 1.73 yards per route run average in just 13 games last season. He’s had similar passing game usage throughout his career, averaging 91 targets and a 72/603/3 slash line per season in seven seasons in the league, with a career 1.96 yards per route run average. He also has 1,315 carries for 5,829 yards and 54 touchdowns (4.43 YPC) as a runner in his career.

That being said, Kamara averaged a career low 3.86 YPC on 180 carries last season though, along with a career low 2.51 yards per carry after contact, a career low 5.42 yards per target, and a career low 6.21 yards per catch, and now he heads into his age 29 season with 1,820 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to slow down significantly, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to have underwhelming averages. Like many of the Saints’ top players, Kamara is getting up there in age and could be past his prime.

The Saints used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a potential future replacement for Kamara in Kendre Miller. Miller was 4th on the team in carries as a rookie with just 41, behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill, but Miller was limited to 8 games by injuries and, now healthier and in his second season in the league, he should see an expanded role, probably at the expense of Williams, who averaged just 2.89 YPC to Miller’s 3.80 YPC in 2023. Miller also flashed potential as a pass catcher with a 10/117/0 slash line and a 2.17 yards per route run average and he could have an expanded role as a receiver as well in 2024.

Jamaal Williams has been better in the past than he was last season, but his career average is just 3.88 YPC on 1,021 carries and he’s an underwhelming pass catcher, with a career average of 1.02 yards per route run. He has a solid 50.4% carry success rate in his career, but has managed just 21 carries over 15+ yards in his career, so he’s best as a short yardage specialist. He’s also going into his age 29 season now and his best days could be behind him. If it wasn’t for his 3.85 million dollar salary being guaranteed, the Saints likely would have moved on from him this off-season. This isn’t a bad backfield, but feature back Alvin Kamara seems to be slowing down, Jamaal Williams is just a short yardage specialist, and promising young running back Kendre Miller is still inexperienced.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints also have many aging key players on defense. Edge defender Cameron Jordan has been one of their best defensive players for years and is coming off of a solid 2023 season in which he had a 73.5 PFF grade on 770 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and his 2023 PFF grade was his lowest since 2014. In his prime from 2015-2021, Jordan exceeded 80 on PFF in all seven seasons, excelling against the run and adding 78 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 112 games, but he hasn’t been the same player the past two seasons. His run defense has remained impressive, but he has managed just 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 33 games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline even further in 2024, both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, given his advanced age.

Fellow starter Carl Granderson is at least in his prime in his age 28 season, but he’s also a better run stopper than pass rusher. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a few years to develop, before posting a 80.4 PFF grade on 480 snaps in 2022 and a 74.1 PFF grade on 874 snaps in 2023, but he has totaled just 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 33 games over those two seasons. He would be best as a pure base package player who plays sparingly in obvious passing situations.

With Jordan aging and Granderson being a middling at best pass rusher, the Saints upgraded this position group with the one major free agent signing they could afford this off-season, bringing in Chase Young on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young is only in his age 25 season and was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s consistently had durability problems, missing 24 games in four seasons in the league, while never once playing in every game, which is why his 5th year option was declined and he hit free agency this off-season. 

Young has been effective when on the field, exceeding 70 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, playing the run at a high level and adding 16.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 43 games, and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy for a whole season and put it all together, but because he’s only on a one-year deal, his contract doesn’t have any long-term upside. Even if he plays well this season, it will be for a Saints team that is unlikely to go on a deep playoff run and then the Saints would have to pay a higher price to keep him long-term next off-season, one they’re highly unlikely to be able to afford, given their cap situation. 

The Saints have attempted to find a long-term replacement for Jordan in the draft, using a 2021 1st round pick on Payton Turner and a 2023 2nd round pick on Isaiah Foskey, but both have been very underwhelming thus far in their careers. Turner has played just 340 snaps in three seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, while Foskey was unable to earn a role as a rookie, playing just 84 nondescript snaps. Foskey is still only going in his second season in the league and could take a step forward in year two and Turner may still have some theoretical upside as well, but Turner is running out of time to make good on that upside and both would need to take a big step forward to even be useful rotational players in 2024.

With Young being added to the mix this off-season, Turner and Foskey will compete for deep reserve roles with veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon, who was decently effective on a snap count of 406 in 2023, receiving a 67.7 PFF grade and totaling 3.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher. However, that was the first season of his 7-year veteran that he received a grade above 60 from PFF and exceeded 400 snaps played in the same season and he now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t as effective in 2024 as he was last season. This is actually a pretty strong position group overall, but Cameron Jordan is aging, Chase Young is injury prone, Carl Granderson is much better against the run than as a pass rusher, and none of their depth options are guaranteed to be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another recent high draft pick that hasn’t panned out yet for the Saints is interior defender Bryan Bresee, a first round pick in 2023. Bresee was a solid pass rusher as a rookie with 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate, but he was horrendous against the run and, as a result, had an overall grade of 45.5 from PFF across 539 total snaps. Breese is still only going into his second season in the league and has plenty of time to make good on his upside, but he would need to take a big step forward against the run in 2024 to be a reliable starter.

Nathan Shepherd also struggled in 2023, with a 47.5 PFF grade on 593 snaps. That’s not a surprise, as that was a career high in snaps for the 6-year veteran. Shepherd has been better in the past in smaller roles, but the Saints don’t have much of a choice but to give him a big role again in 2024 and, on top of that, he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t continue struggling this season. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate last season, but, like Bresee, he also struggled mightily against the run.

Khalen Saunders was the Saints’ best all-around interior defender by default last season, with a 61.6 PFF grade on 522 snaps, holding up decently against the run and adding a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His 2023 performance wasn’t bad, but it’s concerning when he’s your best interior defender. A 3rd round pick in 2019 by the Chiefs, Saunders took a few years to develop, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade on 421 snaps in 2022 and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he should continue being a capable all-around player in 2024.

Depth behind the Saints’ top-3 interior defenders is also a big concern. The Saints used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Khristian Boyd, but he would almost definitely struggle if he played a significant rookie year role. They also added veteran Kendal Vickers in free agency, but he’s played just 602 snaps in the past four seasons, while finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons. With more depth on the edge than the interior, the Saints will probably use three defensive ends together in sub packages frequently, with one of them lined up in the interior. Unless they get a breakout year from 2023 1st round Bryan Breese, expect the Saints’ interior defender group to be very underwhelming in 2024.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Top linebacker Demario Davis is also getting up there in age, going into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with a 89.6 PFF grade across 1,074 snaps in 2024, the second best season-long PFF grade of his career and his seventh straight season over 70, but he could decline significantly at any point even his advanced age and if it happens in 2024 that would be a big blow to this defense. Pete Werner was the Saints’ other every down linebacker in 2023, but he wasn’t nearly as good, with a 57.5 PFF grade across 919 snaps.

A 2021 2nd round pick, Werner showed promise in smaller roles in his first two seasons in the league, with a 79.9 PFF grade across 394 snaps as a rookie and a 64.7 PFF grade across 596 snaps in 2022, but he couldn’t translate that to a bigger role in 2023. He’s only going into his age 25 season though, so he could still have untapped upside and take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024. With Demario Davis likely to regress at least somewhat, the Saints will need Werner to step up to compensate, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints signed Willie Gay to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season to provide competition for Werner or to serve as the third linebacker in base packages if Werner keeps his job. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Gay has shown some promise in his career, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, while maxing out at 625 snaps in a season and averaging 484 snaps per season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could have untapped upside, but he’s coming off of a 2023 season in which he had a 53.3 PFF grade across his career high in snaps, which is why he had to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency.  

The Saints also drafted Jaylan Ford in the 5th round of this year’s draft to give them more depth and a potential long-term successor for Davis, but he’s unlikely to see many snaps as a rookie and would likely struggle if he did. Demario Davis significantly elevates an otherwise middling linebacking corps, with both Pete Werner and Willie Gay being underwhelming options, but Davis’ age is becoming a big concern and the Saints would be in trouble defensively if he declined significantly this season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety Tyrann Mathieu is another talented player the Saints have who is getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, his 11th straight season above 60 on PFF and his 7th season above 70, but that was the third best single season grade of his career and it would be a surprise if he was able to repeat that again in 2024, given his age. He should still remain at least an above average starter even if he does decline, but any noticeable decline from him would be a hit to this secondary and his age is becoming a significant concern.

Mathieu will start next to Jordan Howden, who was decent in 567 snaps (7 starts) in 2023, with a 67.0 PFF grade, despite being just a 5th round rookie. Marcus Maye was supposed to be their primary starter opposite Mathieu last season, but he was limited to 7 games by injuries and suspension and he was mediocre anyway, with a 57.6 PFF grade. With Maye gone, the only real competition Howden has for a starting job is Johnathan Abram, but Abram is probably not a real candidate to start. 

Abram was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2019, but he’s been a major bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 57.1 PFF grade in just 209 snaps last season. Now in his age 28 season, it’s unlikely Abram has any untapped upside, so he will remain a backup caliber player and a mediocre one at that. Howden is still a projection to being a season-long starter and it’s possible he regresses and shows why he wasn’t a high draft pick, but he’s the best option the Saints have opposite Mathieu.

At cornerback, Marshon Lattimore remains their de facto #1 cornerback. He’s relatively young for a core player on this team, only in his age 28 season, but he’s had a lot of injuries in his career, missing 25 games in seven seasons in the league, including 17 over the past two seasons combined, and those injuries might have permanently sapped his abilities somewhat. He finished above 70 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, but he’s fallen to 64.7 and 67.4 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s young enough that he has bounce back potential in 2024 if he can stay healthy and if injuries haven’t permanently sapped his abilities, but those are big ifs, so it’s very possible he remains a decent, but unspectacular starter who is likely to miss significant time at some point.

Fortunately, Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo had impressive seasons last year to make up for Lattimore’s injuries and regression. Yiadom had an 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps, while Adebo had a 78.6 PFF grade across 948 snaps. Yiadom is no longer with the team though, signing with the 49ers in free agency, while Adebo is a one-year wonder who could regress. Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he struggled with PFF grades of 60.3 and 49.1 across snap counts of 851 and 814 respectively in his first two seasons in the league and, even if he doesn’t completely regress to that level, he might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Lattimore and Adebo are likely locked into starting roles, leaving the third cornerback job to either Alontae Taylor or second round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry. Taylor was a second round pick back in 2022, but he’s another recent high draft pick of the Saints who has yet to pan out, receiving PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 across snap counts of 663 and 950 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He still has time to develop, but he has a long way to go to even be a decent third cornerback and the Saints seem to be getting impatient with him, taking McKinstry as a potential alternative. McKinstry could have growing pains as a rookie, but still might be the favorite for the #3 cornerback job. Given Lattimore’s injury history though, it’s likely both Taylor and McKinstry make starts at some point this season. Overall, this isn’t a bad secondary, but they have some concerns.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints have been a middling team over the past few seasons and this year they might not even be that good because they haven’t drafted well in recent years and, as a result, most of their top players are getting up there in age. Their schedule and division should also be tougher after facing one of the easiest schedules and playing in the weakest division in the league a year ago. They should have gone through a complete rebuild after Drew Brees retired, but instead they are stuck in NFL purgatory with no clear way to get any better long-term, given their lack of long-term financial flexibility. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Saints after I finish all of my previews.

Update: The Saints have a relatively easy schedule, but their roster got significantly weaker when they lost Ryan Ramczyk for the season with injury.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC South