Pick of the Week
NYJ 27 (-7.5) DEN 13
High Confidence Picks
CHI 26 (-3) LAR 20
MIN 24 (+3) GB 23 Upset Pick +130
Medium Confidence Picks
DAL 23 NYG 20 (+5.5)
CIN 31 (-4.5) CAR 24
CLE 20 (-1.5) LV 16
HOU 31 JAX 27 (+6.5)
Low Confidence Picks
KC 23 LAC 17 (+7)
PIT 16 (-2) IND 13
SF 26 (-10.5) NE 13
ARZ 30 WAS 27 (+3.5)
DET 30 SEA 27 (+3.5)
ATL 23 NO 21 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
MIA 17 TEN 16 (+2.5)
BAL 26 BUF 24 (+2.5)
PHI 24 TB 23 (+1.5)
Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2)
This line favored the visiting Dallas Cowboys by a full touchdown last week on the early line, but with the Giants pulling the upset in Cleveland as 6.5-point underdogs last week and the Cowboys losing to the Ravens in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score, this line has now shifted down to 5.5. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that unless they involve an injury, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I think this line is still too high, as the Cowboys probably aren’t good enough to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.
My roster rankings have the Cowboys a half point below average and both DVOA and my efficiency rating have them as a well below average team, as they are 22nd in DVOA at -15.5% and 25th in efficiency rating at -4.30 (-0.76 yards per play differential, -3.43% first down rate differential). Both of those metrics are actually below the Giants, who rank 21st in DVOA at -15.2% and 23rd in efficiency rating at -3.70 (-0.51 yards per play differential, -1.50% first down rate differential). I still think the Cowboys are the better team because they’re more talented and those ratings are a small sample size, but they’re not so much better to justify them being favored by this many points on the road. My roster rankings have the Cowboys 4.5 points ahead of the Giants and, at most, they should only be favored by a field goal on the road.
The Cowboys are also in a tough spot with a much bigger game against the currently 3-0 Steelers on deck and favorites cover at just a 43.9% rate against teams with winning percentages of 33.3% or less when they next face an opponent with a winning percentage of 75% or more. The Giants aren’t in a good spot either because they just pulled a big upset and now are big underdogs again, with underdogs of 4 or more covering at just a 43.6% rate after winning straight up as underdogs of 4 or more the previous week, but the bad spots both teams are in should cancel out, leaving us with the aforementioned line value with the Giants. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Giants’ chances to keep this one close.
Dallas Cowboys 23 New York Giants 20
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
MIN 27 (+1.5) HOU 23 Upset Pick +110
High Confidence Picks
NYJ 24 (-6) NE 13
Medium Confidence Picks
CLE 23 (-6.5) NYG 13
LV 20 CAR 17 (+6.5)
BUF 31 (-4.5) JAX 23
Low Confidence Picks
KC 24 ATL 23 (+3)
DET 33 (-3) ARZ 28
CIN 30 (-7.5) WAS 20
TB 25 DEN 20 (+6.5)
SEA 23 MIA 20 (+4.5)
TEN 17 (-3) GB 13
PIT 17 LAC 16 (+2.5)
No Confidence Picks
SF 33 LAR 27 (+6.5)
IND 24 CHI 23 (+1.5)
BAL 24 DAL 23 (+1.5)
NO 30 (-2.5) PHI 27
New England Patriots (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
Arguably the most difficult spot for a team to cover the spread is when they have to play on a short week after playing an overtime game the week before, which is the situation the Patriots find themselves in, losing in overtime to the Seahawks last week and now facing the Jets on the road in New York on Thursday Night Football. In total, teams are just 3-23 ATS on Thursday nights after an overtime game, losing against the spread by a whopping nine points on average.
The line, which favors the Jets by 6, hasn’t taken that into account. In fact, despite that powerful trend coming into play, this line has dropped from a full touchdown a week ago on the early line down to 6 this week, which is a pretty meaningful shift considering about 1 in 10 games are decided by exactly a touchdown. Even if that trend weren’t taken into account, this line seems too short, as the Jets are at home and have a seven point edge in my roster rankings.
The Jets’ results on the field this season haven’t looked great, but they traveled cross country for a night game in San Francisco against one of the best teams in the league week 1 and then played in an obvious trap game spot on the road week 2 against the Titans, in a game sandwiched in between their tough week 1 game and this divisional rivalry on a short week. The Jets might not have looked good last week, but they still won by a full touchdown, which covered the spread last week and would cover the spread again this week, and now they’re the one in the better spot with the Patriots likely to be exhausted after playing extra time last week.
This is also probably the easiest game of the season for the Jets thus far regardless of the situation, as they are playing their first home game of the season and playing a team in the bottom third of the league. I don’t expect them to have too much trouble here. The Jets are worth a big bet as long as this line stays under a touchdown. Even if it moves to seven, the Jets are still bettable, albeit for a smaller amount.
New York Jets 24 New England Patriots 13
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -6
Confidence: High
Pick of the Week
WAS 27 (-1.5) NYG 20
High Confidence
DET 34 (-7.5) TB 21
PHI 23 ATL 20 (+6.5)
Medium Confidence
BAL 27 (-8.5) LV 16
JAX 17 CLE 16 (+3)
KC 31 (-5.5) CIN 23
SEA 19 NE 17 (+3.5)
Low Confidence
NYJ 20 TEN 17 (+3.5)
LAC 20 CAR 16 (+5)
ARZ 30 (-1) LAR 27
PIT 20 (-2.5) DEN 16
SF 24 MIN 20 (+5.5)
No Confidence
DAL 27 (-6) NO 20
IND 20 (-2.5) GB 17
HOU 27 (-6.5) CHI 20
MIA 27 (-2.5) BUF 24
Buffalo Bills (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (1-0)
This game is one I don’t have a strong opinion on in terms of who is more likely to cover against the spread. The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points at home, suggesting the oddsmakers view these two teams as about even, which I think is accurate. Both teams won their first game of the season at home in close fashion last week, as the Dolphins won by 3 and the Bills won by 6, with both margins failing to cover the spread.
The Bills had an easier matchup against the Cardinals, while the Dolphins played the Jaguars, but the Bills were more impressive in their victory, with a +7.59% first down rate differential and a +1.57 yards per play differential, as opposed to -5.83% and +0.81 respectively for the Dolphins. While the Bills game might not have been close if not for a Cardinals kickoff return touchdown and a -20.5% third down rate margin by the Bills, both of which won’t happen every week, the Dolphins might not have been able to come back and win if not for scoring an 80-yard touchdown, recovering a red zone fumble, and a posting +30% third down rate margin, three things which also won’t happen every week.
These two teams are about even in my roster rankings as well. The Dolphins have significant advantages in the receiving corps, linebacking corps, and secondary, with the Bills notably missing their top linebacker Matt Milano and talented slot cornerback Taron Johnson due to injury, but the Bills have a significant advantage at quarterback, which is enough to cancel out the Dolphins three position group advantages.
Ultimately, which team I pick here will come down to the status of Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who is considered a gametime decision. If he’s out, the Bills would also have a significant advantage at running back, with the Dolphins already being without Raheem Mostert, their other talented running back. For now, I am picking the Dolphins because it seems like Achane is more likely than not to play after participating in Wednesday’s walkthrough and, if he plays, the most likely outcome of this game is a Dolphins victory by a field goal, which would cover this spread as long as it stays below three, but if Achane is out, I would flip this pick to Buffalo unless the line shifts significantly. Either way, I anticipate this being a no confidence pick.
Miami Dolphins 27 Buffalo Bills 24
Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
ATL 24 (-3) PIT 16
High Confidence Picks
DET 33 (-4.5) LAR 24
Medium Confidence Picks
KC 26 (-3) BAL 20
PHI 27 (-2) GB 22
MIN 20 (-1.5) NYG 16
LAC 26 (-3) LV 20
SEA 31 (-5.5) DEN 23
TB 24 WAS 23 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
CHI 26 (-3.5) TEN 20
HOU 27 (-2.5) IND 23
MIA 30 JAX 27 (+3.5)
CLE 24 (-2.5) DAL 20
No Confidence Picks
NO 20 CAR 17 (+4)
BUF 30 ARZ 24 (+6.5)
CIN 24 NE 17 (+7.5)
SF 24 NYJ 20 (+4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0) in Brazil
The Eagles are favored in this game by 2 points, which might seem like a surprise, considering how these two teams finished last season. While the Packers won seven of their last ten regular season games after a 2-5 start and pulled off a first round upset in the post-season, the Eagles lost five of their last six regular season games after a 10-1 and were upset in the first round. The public seems to not understand why the Eagles are favored, as the majority of the action is on the underdog.
However, the Eagles are much better coached on both sides of the ball this season and hold the overall talent edge in this matchup, possessing significant advantages on the offensive and defensive lines and a slight advantage in the receiving corps, while the Packers only have a slight advantage in the linebacking corps (quarterback, running backs, and secondary are essentially a wash). Given that, this line is actually a little short, as the Eagles are talented enough to be favored by a full field goal in this matchup. On top of that, the better team normally covers in neutral site international games, with favorites going 34-18 ATS all-time. The public may be on the underdog, but it makes perfect sense to me why the Eagles are favored and, with the Eagles only needing to win by a field goal to cover, I like fading the public on this one and putting a small bet on the favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 22
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2
Confidence: Medium
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
These two teams last met in the AFC Championship last January and, even though that wasn’t that long ago, a lot has changed since then. In that game, the Ravens were at home and favored by 3.5 points, suggesting they were a noticeably better team, with about 1 in 4 games decided by less than three points. That made sense if you looked at how both teams fared throughout the season, as the Ravens had a +5.56% first down rate differential and a +1.23 yards per play differential in the regular season, while the Chiefs were at +3.55% and +0.82 respectively.
However, the Chiefs hit their stride down the stretch last season, thanks to improved health from tight end Travis Kelce and the breakout of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, as well as improved play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their offensive line. That led to the Chiefs pulling the upset in Baltimore and going on to win their second straight Super Bowl in their next game.Now going into 2024, the Chiefs have a good chance to continue that high level of play, especially since they further upgraded their receiving corps with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, though the latter will be out for this game.
Meanwhile, the Ravens suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a trio of offensive line starters, a trio of starters on defense, and talented defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, none of whom were adequately replaced. The Ravens’ addition of running back Derrick Henry gets a lot of hype, but Henry is going into his age 30 season and might not be a huge upgrade over departed running back Gus Edwards at this stage of his career, especially since Henry won’t have anywhere near the same caliber of offensive line in front of him as Edwards did last season.
The Chiefs are now the ones favored at home in this game, albeit only by 3 points, suggesting they are the slightly better, but not significantly better team. I think the line is a little low though, as the distance between these two teams is enough to justify the Chiefs being favored by 3.5-5.5 points. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home in week 1, a spot in which teams are 12-6-1 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs flopped in this spot a year ago, losing by one at home to the Lions as 4.5-point favorites, but the Chiefs were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones in that one and were facing a Lions team that was better than most realized, going on to come within a couple plays of a Super Bowl appearance last season. The Chiefs should have better luck this time around and there is enough here to justify betting them as 3-point home favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs 26 Baltimore Ravens 20
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3
Confidence: Medium
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
*Playoff Qualifier
AFC Wild Card Round
#2 New York Jets over #7 Miami Dolphins
#3 Baltimore Ravens over #6 Cleveland Browns
#4 Houston Texans over #5 Cincinnati Bengals
NFC Wild Card Round
#2 Detroit Lions over #7 Green Bay Packers
#3 Atlanta Falcons over #6 Chicago Bears
#4 Philadelphia Eagles over #5 Dallas Cowboys
AFC Divisional Round
#1 Kansas City Chiefs over #4 Houston Texans
#2 New York Jets over #3 Baltimore Ravens
NFC Divisional Round
#1 San Francisco 49ers over #4 Philadelphia Eagles
#2 Detroit Lions over #3 Atlanta Falcons
AFC Championship
#1 Kansas City Chiefs over #2 New York Jets
NFC Championship
#1 San Francisco 49ers over #2 Detroit Lions
Super Bowl
#1 Kansas City Chiefs over #1 San Francisco 49ers
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