Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

These two teams last met in the AFC Championship last January and, even though that wasn’t that long ago, a lot has changed since then. In that game, the Ravens were at home and favored by 3.5 points, suggesting they were a noticeably better team, with about 1 in 4 games decided by less than three points. That made sense if you looked at how both teams fared throughout the season, as the Ravens had a +5.56% first down rate differential and a +1.23 yards per play differential in the regular season, while the Chiefs were at +3.55% and +0.82 respectively. 

However, the Chiefs hit their stride down the stretch last season, thanks to improved health from tight end Travis Kelce and the breakout of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, as well as improved play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their offensive line. That led to the Chiefs pulling the upset in Baltimore and going on to win their second straight Super Bowl in their next game.Now going into 2024, the Chiefs have a good chance to continue that high level of play, especially since they further upgraded their receiving corps with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, though the latter will be out for this game.

Meanwhile, the Ravens suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a trio of offensive line starters, a trio of starters on defense, and talented defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, none of whom were adequately replaced. The Ravens’ addition of running back Derrick Henry gets a lot of hype, but Henry is going into his age 30 season and might not be a huge upgrade over departed running back Gus Edwards at this stage of his career, especially since Henry won’t have anywhere near the same caliber of offensive line in front of him as Edwards did last season.

The Chiefs are now the ones favored at home in this game, albeit only by 3 points, suggesting they are the slightly better, but not significantly better team. I think the line is a little low though, as the distance between these two teams is enough to justify the Chiefs being favored by 3.5-5.5 points. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home in week 1, a spot in which teams are 12-6-1 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs flopped in this spot a year ago, losing by one at home to the Lions as 4.5-point favorites, but the Chiefs were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones in that one and were facing a Lions team that was better than most realized, going on to come within a couple plays of a Super Bowl appearance last season. The Chiefs should have better luck this time around and there is enough here to justify betting them as 3-point home favorites.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Medium