Month: October 2024

Houston Texans at New York Jets: 2024 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)

This line favors the Jets by 1.5 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even. That might be surprising, given that the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, but these two teams are much closer than that suggests. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, the Texans are at +0.57 and +2.16% respectively, while the Jets are at +0.41 and +0.66%. Five of the Texans’ six wins have come by one-score, while four of the Jets’ six losses have come by one-score, so if a couple things had gone differently these two teams could have very similar records. 

The Jets also enter this game as the healthier team, with the Texans most notably missing wide receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, who are not just their two best wide receivers, but two of the better wide receivers in the league.  Given the injury situations of these two teams, my calculated line is very similar to the actual line, favoring the Jets by two. The Jets are also in a better spot at home on a short week. That benefit is minimized in divisional matchups or when the road team is the significantly better team, but non-divisional home favorites cover at a 59.8% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, which applies to the Jets in this game. That effect is more pronounced when the home team is big favorites, but home favorites of three or less still cover at a 56.2% rate. 

Also, if you’re worried about picking a 2-6 team as favorites against a 6-2 team, teams with winning percentages below 30% are actually 14-5 ATS as favorites against teams with winning percentages above 70% in week 5 or later over the past 35 seasons. There’s not quite enough for the Jets to be bettable this week, but they should be the right side and they’re a good contrarian play in pick ‘em leagues, with about 80% of people on the Texans because of their record.

New York Jets 26 Houston Texans 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Low

2024 Week 8 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

SF 27 (-3.5) DAL 17

High Confidence Picks

SEA 24 (+3) BUF 23 Upset Pick +140

HOU 24 IND 23 (+5)

JAX 31 (+4) GB 30 Upset Pick +175

Medium Confidence Picks

LAC 23 (-7) NO 13

Low Confidence Picks

CHI 24 WAS 23 (+3)

BAL 27 (-8.5) CLE 17

DEN 19 (-10.5) CAR 7

PIT 20 (-5.5) NYG 13

DET 26 (-11.5) TEN 13

KC 27 (-9.5) LV 16

ATL 27 (-1.5) TB 24

No Confidence Picks

NYJ 24 NE 17 (+7)

MIN 23 (-2.5) LAR 20

CIN 27 (-2.5) PHI 24

MIA 31 (-4) ARZ 26

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4)

These two teams have very different records, with the Vikings tied for the best record in the NFC at 5-1 and the Rams out of the playoff picture at 2-4, but they have been more equal than that suggests, as the Vikings have a +1.73% first down rate differential and a +0.64 yards per play differential, while the Rams are at -1.08% and -0.71 respectively. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss record. The Rams also get a big boost this week, with talented wide receiver Cooper Kupp practicing in full and set to return for the first time since getting injured back in week 2. With these two teams closer in important metrics than their records suggest and the Rams getting one of their most important players back from injury, my rankings have these two teams about four points apart. 

With the Rams at home, that four point gap would normally mean they should be two point underdogs, with home teams on average outscoring road teams by about two points over the past several seasons. However, the Rams don’t have quite the same homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds heavily supporting the road team. Given that, this line, favoring the Vikings by a field goal, is about right. My calculated line has the Rams slightly more likely than the Vikings to cover this spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and the most likely outcome might be a push, with the Vikings winning by exactly a field goal. If this line slips down to 2.5, I would change my pick to Minnesota.

Update: This line has dropped to 2.5, but that’s because Puka Nacua is surprisingly active, while TJ Hockenson, who was questionable for the Vikings, was ruled out. Nacua is unlikely to play close to his regular snap count though, having gotten just two limited practices in after missing seven weeks, while Hockenson would likely not have played a full snap count had he been active, in his first game in ten months after tearing his ACL, so neither of those injury developments is a huge deal. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am switching to Minnesota at 2.5.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None

2024 Week 7 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

IND 24 (-3) MIA 17

High Confidence Picks

CIN 26 (-5.5) CLE 17

LAR 24 LV 20 (+7.5)

Medium Confidence Picks

DET 27 (+1.5) MIN 24 Upset Pick +110

JAX 24 (-5.5) NE 16

Low Confidence Picks

ARZ 24 (+2) LAC 23 Upset Pick +115

GB 26 HOU 24 (+3)

BUF 24 TEN 17 (+9.5)

PIT 17 (+1.5) NYJ 16 Upset Pick +110

WAS 34 (-8.5) CAR 24

DEN 17 NO 16 (+3)

No Confidence Picks

SF 24 KC 23 (+1.5)

BAL 30 TB 27 (+3.5)

PHI 23 NYG 20 (+3)

ATL 27 (-3) SEA 24

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2024 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

This game is a tough call. The Saints have been the slightly better team this season, possessing the edge in first down rate differential. The Broncos have the better defense, allowing a 27.50% first down rate and 4.44 yards per play, as opposed to 30.85% and 6.07 for the Saints, but the Saints have a better offense, with a 31.35% first down rate and 5.33 yards per play, as opposed to 25.28% and 4.69 for the Broncos, and offensive production tends to be much more predictive and consistent week-to-week. In my efficiency metric that weighs offensive performance higher than defensive performance, the Saints have a significant edge at -0.53 to -4.25.

However, that’s mostly because the Saints played so well in the first two games of the season, when they won both games by a combined 62 points, and they have declined significantly since then, losing their last four games, in large part due to injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. In total, the Saints are missing starting quarterback Derek Carr, a trio of starting offensive linemen in Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz, their two best wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the versatile Taysom Hill, starting linebacker Pete Warner, and starting safety Will Harris. 

The Broncos are missing top cornerback Patrick Surtain, starting linebacker Alex Singleton, and starting wide receiver Josh Reynolds, while starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey and starting edge defender Baron Browning are questionable, but overall they are the much healthier team and, overall, possess a five point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we are getting a little bit of line value with the Broncos as 2.5-point road favorites, but the Saints are also in a better spot, as home underdogs cover the spread at a 56.7% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the previous week. I am taking the Saints for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Update: This line has shifted to 3, probably because McGlinchey and Browning are playing, but I already assumed they would, so that doesn’t change my projection at all. I like +3 a lot more than +2.5, so I am boosting this to a low confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 17 New Orleans Saints 16

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Low

2024 Week 6 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

ATL 31 (-6) CAR 20

High Confidence Picks

GB 24 ARZ 23 (+5.5)

TB 24 (-3.5) NO 17

Medium Confidence Picks

DET 30 (-3) DAL 24

NYJ 19 (+2.5) BUF 17 Upset Pick +120

IND 22 (+2.5) TEN 20 Upset Pick +120

Low Confidence Picks

BAL 31 (-6.5) WAS 23

HOU 23 NE 17 (+7)

PHI 23 (-9) CLE 13

CIN 30 (-3.5) NYG 24

JAX 24 (+1.5) CHI 23 Upset Pick +105

PIT 17 (-3) LV 13

No Confidence Picks

LAC 20 (-3) DEN 17

SF 27 SEA 24 (+3.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2024 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

Both of these teams lost in surprising fashion last week, the 49ers as 7.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals and the Seahawks as 7-point home favorites against the Giants, but both teams were in a bad spot, with this much more important matchup on deck in just four days on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football). The 49ers also could have easily won if they didn’t lose their kicker to an injury mid-game, while the Seahawks easily could have won if not for a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown. 

Even including last week’s disappointing results in a bad spot, both teams have impressive numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive long-term than win/loss record. The 49ers are +0.72 in yards per play differential and +5.41% in first down rate differential, while the Seahawks are +0.86 in yards per play differential and +5.71% in first down rate differential. However, these two teams are not as even as that would suggest, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers have faced a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced the Patriots, the 49ers have also faced the Jets, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals, while the Seahawks have faced the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants. The 49ers also have a much more talented roster in general, especially with the Seahawks missing talented cornerback Riq Woolen with injury, and, in the long run, the 49ers should be the significantly better team, possessing a seven point edge in my roster rankings. Given all of that, I think this line, favoring the 49ers by 3.5 points on the road, is about right. 

I am taking the Seahawks, but only because betting on 3.5-point favorites is not a winning proposition, as they cover the spread only 48.0% of the time. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. The most likely outcome of this game is a 49ers’ victory by a field goal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers covered this spread.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: None

2024 Week 5 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

PIT 24 (-2.5) DAL 17

High Confidence Picks

None

Medium Confidence Picks

ATL 27 (-1.5) TB 23

KC 23 NO 20 (+5.5)

GB 27 LAR 26 (+3)

JAX 24 IND 23 (+3.5)

Low Confidence Picks

DEN 17 LV 16 (+3)

WAS 18 CLE 17 (+3)

SF 34 ARZ 27 (+7.5)

MIN 20 (-2.5) NYJ 17

CHI 23 (-3.5) CAR 17

BAL 27 (-2.5) CIN 24

No Confidence Picks

HOU 26 (-1) BUF 24

MIA 17 (-1) NE 16

SEA 24 (-7) NYG 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2024 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

Going into the season, I expected the Falcons to be the significantly better of these two teams. The Buccaneers won two more games than the Falcons a year ago, going 9-8 as compared to 7-10 for Atlanta, but the Falcons held a significant edge in yards per play differential (+0.20 vs. -0.33) and first down rate differential (+0.69% vs. -2.75%), which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records are. The Falcons also made several additions this off-season, most notably quarterback Kirk Cousins, wide receiver Darnell Mooney, edge defender Matt Judon, and safety Justin SImmons, while the Buccaneers’ roster largely stayed the same as a year ago.

So far this season, these two teams have been much more even than I expected. The Falcons hold the edge in yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. +0.18), but the Buccaneers hold the edge in first down rate differential (+2.37% vs. +0.92%). That is only a four game sample size though and the Falcons still possess a significant edge of 2.5 points in my roster rankings, in large part because they are the much healthier team right now.

The Falcons will be without starting linebacker Troy Andersen this week and remain without starting center Drew Dalman for the second straight week, but they will get back starting right tackle Kaleb McGary from a one-game absence, while the Buccaneers remain without stud safety Antoine Winfield, starting right tackle Luke Goedeke, and starting interior defender Calijah Kancey, while adding starting linebacker SirVocea Dennis and starting wide receiver Jalen McMillan to their list of absent players this week. The Falcons have also played a tougher schedule this season. Both teams have faced the Eagles, but the Falcons faced them when the Eagles were much healthier, while the Falcons’ other three games have been against the Steelers, Saints, and Chiefs, while the Buccaneers have faced the Commanders, Broncos, and Lions.

Given all that, the Falcons should still be considered the better of these two teams. Despite that, this line, favoring the Falcons by only 1.5 points at home, suggest these two teams are about even, with the Buccaneers seen as the slightly better team by the oddsmakers, given that home teams on average have won by 2.5 points per game historically and 2.1 points per game since the start of the 2021 season. The Falcons should be favored by at least a field goal, if not four or five points, so we’re getting pretty significant line value with the host. This isn’t a big bet, but the Falcons are worth betting this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -1.5

Confidence: Medium