Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

Going into the season, I expected the Falcons to be the significantly better of these two teams. The Buccaneers won two more games than the Falcons a year ago, going 9-8 as compared to 7-10 for Atlanta, but the Falcons held a significant edge in yards per play differential (+0.20 vs. -0.33) and first down rate differential (+0.69% vs. -2.75%), which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records are. The Falcons also made several additions this off-season, most notably quarterback Kirk Cousins, wide receiver Darnell Mooney, edge defender Matt Judon, and safety Justin SImmons, while the Buccaneers’ roster largely stayed the same as a year ago.

So far this season, these two teams have been much more even than I expected. The Falcons hold the edge in yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. +0.18), but the Buccaneers hold the edge in first down rate differential (+2.37% vs. +0.92%). That is only a four game sample size though and the Falcons still possess a significant edge of 2.5 points in my roster rankings, in large part because they are the much healthier team right now.

The Falcons will be without starting linebacker Troy Andersen this week and remain without starting center Drew Dalman for the second straight week, but they will get back starting right tackle Kaleb McGary from a one-game absence, while the Buccaneers remain without stud safety Antoine Winfield, starting right tackle Luke Goedeke, and starting interior defender Calijah Kancey, while adding starting linebacker SirVocea Dennis and starting wide receiver Jalen McMillan to their list of absent players this week. The Falcons have also played a tougher schedule this season. Both teams have faced the Eagles, but the Falcons faced them when the Eagles were much healthier, while the Falcons’ other three games have been against the Steelers, Saints, and Chiefs, while the Buccaneers have faced the Commanders, Broncos, and Lions.

Given all that, the Falcons should still be considered the better of these two teams. Despite that, this line, favoring the Falcons by only 1.5 points at home, suggest these two teams are about even, with the Buccaneers seen as the slightly better team by the oddsmakers, given that home teams on average have won by 2.5 points per game historically and 2.1 points per game since the start of the 2021 season. The Falcons should be favored by at least a field goal, if not four or five points, so we’re getting pretty significant line value with the host. This isn’t a big bet, but the Falcons are worth betting this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -1.5

Confidence: Medium