San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

Both of these teams lost in surprising fashion last week, the 49ers as 7.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals and the Seahawks as 7-point home favorites against the Giants, but both teams were in a bad spot, with this much more important matchup on deck in just four days on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football). The 49ers also could have easily won if they didn’t lose their kicker to an injury mid-game, while the Seahawks easily could have won if not for a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown. 

Even including last week’s disappointing results in a bad spot, both teams have impressive numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive long-term than win/loss record. The 49ers are +0.72 in yards per play differential and +5.41% in first down rate differential, while the Seahawks are +0.86 in yards per play differential and +5.71% in first down rate differential. However, these two teams are not as even as that would suggest, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers have faced a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced the Patriots, the 49ers have also faced the Jets, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals, while the Seahawks have faced the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants. The 49ers also have a much more talented roster in general, especially with the Seahawks missing talented cornerback Riq Woolen with injury, and, in the long run, the 49ers should be the significantly better team, possessing a seven point edge in my roster rankings. Given all of that, I think this line, favoring the 49ers by 3.5 points on the road, is about right. 

I am taking the Seahawks, but only because betting on 3.5-point favorites is not a winning proposition, as they cover the spread only 48.0% of the time. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. The most likely outcome of this game is a 49ers’ victory by a field goal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers covered this spread.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: None