Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4)

These two teams have very different records, with the Vikings tied for the best record in the NFC at 5-1 and the Rams out of the playoff picture at 2-4, but they have been more equal than that suggests, as the Vikings have a +1.73% first down rate differential and a +0.64 yards per play differential, while the Rams are at -1.08% and -0.71 respectively. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss record. The Rams also get a big boost this week, with talented wide receiver Cooper Kupp practicing in full and set to return for the first time since getting injured back in week 2. With these two teams closer in important metrics than their records suggest and the Rams getting one of their most important players back from injury, my rankings have these two teams about four points apart. 

With the Rams at home, that four point gap would normally mean they should be two point underdogs, with home teams on average outscoring road teams by about two points over the past several seasons. However, the Rams don’t have quite the same homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds heavily supporting the road team. Given that, this line, favoring the Vikings by a field goal, is about right. My calculated line has the Rams slightly more likely than the Vikings to cover this spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and the most likely outcome might be a push, with the Vikings winning by exactly a field goal. If this line slips down to 2.5, I would change my pick to Minnesota.

Update: This line has dropped to 2.5, but that’s because Puka Nacua is surprisingly active, while TJ Hockenson, who was questionable for the Vikings, was ruled out. Nacua is unlikely to play close to his regular snap count though, having gotten just two limited practices in after missing seven weeks, while Hockenson would likely not have played a full snap count had he been active, in his first game in ten months after tearing his ACL, so neither of those injury developments is a huge deal. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am switching to Minnesota at 2.5.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None