Pick of the Week
DET 30 (-10) CHI 13
High Confidence Picks
WAS 27 (-5.5) TEN 17
JAX 24 (+3.5) HOU 23 Upset Pick +160
Medium Confidence Picks
DAL 17 NYG 16 (+4)
MIN 23 ARZ 21 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 24 (-3) MIA 19
BAL 24 (-2.5) PHI 20
NE 20 (+2.5) IND 19 Upset Pick +115
ATL 21 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105
SEA 24 (+1.5) NYJ 23 Upset Pick +110
DEN 20 (-5.5) CLE 13
No Confidence Picks
KC 24 LV 12 (+13.5)
TB 27 (-6.5) CAR 20
CIN 23 (-2.5) PIT 20
BUF 24 SF 19 (+6)
LAR 26 (-2.5) NO 23
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)
The Bears are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, particularly on the offensive line, where tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright and guard Teven Jenkins have missed time recently, and on defense, where edge defenders Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor and cornerback Kyler Gordon have missed time recently. They’re a significantly better team as a result of their improved health and almost pulled the upset over the Vikings last week, losing in overtime.
Unfortunately, that overtime loss puts them in a near impossible spot on a short week, as teams have a horrific track record of covering the spread on a short week after an overtime game, going just 3-24 ATS all-time. The Bears would have been in a tough spot anyway, even if they didn’t play overtime last week, as big divisional home favorites tend to cover on a short week, going 21-13 ATS as favorites of 7+ on Thursday as long as both teams are on short rest.
This line is -10 and, as big as that line is, it arguably should be bigger, as the Lions are probably the best team in the league and have a massive edge in first down rate differential (+5.80% vs. -2.03%) and yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.14), as well as a 9-point edge in my roster rankings, even with the Bears’ improved health and the Lions missing left tackle Taylor Decker and cornerback Carlton Davis this week. Between the good spot and the line value, the Lions are a great play this week. I don’t normally like to make my Pick of the Week on Thursday, but I don’t see another game that I like this much, so the Lions are my Pick of the Week this week.
Detroit Lions 30 Chicago Bears 13
Pick against the spread: Detroit -10
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
This game is a tough call from an against the spread perspective, with the Chiefs favored by 13.5 points. On one hand, the Chiefs are 10-1, but haven’t blown out many teams, with just two wins by more than 7 points, one win by more than 10 points, and no wins that would cover this spread. Because of that, a good rule of thumb is to bet them when they’re underdogs or small-to-medium favorites and go against them as big favorites. They are 5-2 ATS this season as long as they aren’t favored by more than six points, but just 0-4 ATS when favorites of more than six. The Chiefs also could be in a look ahead spot here with a much tougher game against the Chargers on deck, as favorites of 7+ cover the spread at just a 44.3% rate as when their next opponent has a better winning percentage than their current opponent by a margin of more than 40%.
On the other hand, the Raiders in their current state are arguably the worst team in the league and this game against them in Kansas City is arguably the Chiefs’ easiest game of the season. The Chiefs have also largely underachieved this season and have the talent to make this game a blowout if they bring their best effort, which they could even in a bad spot, given Patrick Mahomes’ comments about being frustrated with his team’s lack of blowouts, and given that this is a nationally televised game. Even with the Chargers on deck, the Chiefs may want to make a statement in front of the whole country by blowing out a terrible Raiders team. I am still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because I think the argument for them covering is stronger than the argument for the Chiefs covering, but I don’t have any confidence in this pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Las Vegas Raiders 12
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +13.5
Confidence: None
Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
The Packers are in a good spot here as a non-divisional home favorite on a Thursday. It’s very tough for teams to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar non-divisional opponent, unless they are significantly better than that opponent, and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites are 50-33 ATS on Thursdays as long as both teams are on short rest. This is also the type of situation that Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, and the Dolphins have struggled in recently. Tagovailoa is 0-7 in his career when the temperature is less than 40, 3-10 under Mike McDaniel (5-8 ATS) against teams with winning percentages over 50%, and 3-8 in primetime games under Mike McDaniel (3-8 ATS). The Packers, meanwhile, are 23-8 (19-12 ATS) in week 12 or later since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2020, including 14-4 (12-6 ATS) at home.
Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers. The Packers have the edge in first down rate differential (+1.00% vs. +0.02%) and yards per play differential (+0.84 vs. -0.09), but the Packers aren’t as good as you would expect in those metrics, given their 8-3 record, and the Dolphins have been playing a lot better since getting Tagovailoa back from injury. In fact, my roster rankings give the Dolphins a 2-point edge, factoring in the Packers missing cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, so it’s hard to justify betting on the Packers as 3-point favorites, even in a great spot. I would still take the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, but I don’t think they’re bettable.
Green Bay Packers 24 Miami Dolphins 19
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3
Confidence: Low
New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
The Cowboys pulled the huge upset in Washington last weekend, but I’m not sure they can bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. Teams tend to fall back to earth after big upsets like that, covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate the week after an upset as underdogs or 10 points or more. The Giants, meanwhile, were embarrassed by the Buccaneers last week and will probably bring a better effort than a Cowboys team that arguably won their Super Bowl last week.
The Cowboys have also been a much worse home team than road team this season, going 4-2 on the road, including wins over likely playoff qualifiers in the Commanders and Steelers, but losing every home game by an average of 23.6 points. On top of that, the Giants might be the better of these two teams, possessing the significant edge in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -3.46%) and only slightly trailing in yards per play differential (-1.05 vs. -0.96). Meanwhile, my roster rankings give the Giants a 1-point edge, given all of the Cowboys injuries, most notably the absence of starting quarterback Dak Prescott and talented guard Zach Martin. Between the bad spot the Cowboys are in, their struggles at home, and the fact that the Giants might be the better team, it’s hard to justify the Cowboys being favored by four points in this game, so I like the Giants enough for a small bet this week.
Dallas Cowboys 17 New York Giants 16
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
PHI 23 (-2.5) LAR 17
High Confidence Picks
GB 23 SF 20 (+6.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
PIT 19 CLE 17 (+3.5)
MIN 17 CHI 16 (+3.5)
HOU 24 (-7.5) TEN 13
Low Confidence Picks
MIA 25 NE 20 (+7.5)
DEN 17 (-5.5) LV 10
BAL 24 (-3) LAC 20
TB 24 NYG 19 (+6.5)
No Confidence Picks
ARZ 28 (PK) SEA 27
KC 27 CAR 17 (+11)
DET 27 (-7.5) IND 19
WAS 24 (-10.5) DAL 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)
The Steelers are 8-2, while the Browns are 2-8, so it might be surprising that the Steelers are only favored by 3.5 points in this game, even on the road. Most people seem to be surprised by the line, which is why about 87% of people are on the Steelers this week. This line seems to be a trap though, for several reasons. For one, 3.5 is a common trap line and, as a result, +3.5 covers the spread at a 52.0% rate, higher than any other single number. That’s because the average bettor doesn’t realize it’s actually a pretty high line.
About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly three, while 4 and 5 are much less common outcomes, with only about 1 in 10 games being decided by either four or five points. In fact, in terms of real probability, the line 3.5 is actually closer to 6 than 3. If this line was 5.5, I suspect a lot more people would be on the Browns, but the odds makers made it 3.5 because they want a lot of bets on the Steelers, which normally means the smart play is to go the other way and specifically in this case I believe it is.
The Steelers’ record is impressive, but they’re actually negative in both yards per play differential (-0.30) and first down rate differential (-0.64%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their offense in particular has struggled, averaging just 4.96 yards per play and a 27.92% first down rate, both well below the league averages of 5.42 and 30.77%. The biggest reason for the Steelers’ success this season is a +11 turnover margin, second best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have very little week-to-week correlation.
The Steelers also historically have had a lot more success as underdogs or small favorites in the Mike Tomlin era than have had as bigger favorites, especially on the road. While they are 82-52 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, they are just 22-36 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more over that stretch. That makes sense, as the Steelers traditionally are a conservative, defense led team that thrives off being overlooked, but that also struggles to win big when they’re expected to.
The Steelers especially struggle as big road favorites after a win, as their record as road favorites of a field goal or more falls to 10-25 ATS when the Steelers are coming off of a win, which they are after a close upset victory over the Ravens last week. That close victory also opens up another trend that works against the Steelers, as teams are just 25-46 ATS as road favorites after a win by 3 points or fewer as underdogs. After such a big win last week, it could be hard for the Steelers to bring their best effort for a 2-8 opponent, especially on a short week. Meanwhile, the Browns could be viewing this as their Super Bowl, similarly to how they upset the Ravens a few weeks back in a similar spot.
We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Browns, who have plenty of issues, hence their 2-8 record, but, their offense has been noticeably better since Jameis Winston became their quarterback and, given the Steelers’ issues on offense, my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3, which, as I mentioned, is more line value than it seems. That line value combined with the trends that go against the Steelers make the Browns bettable and, at the very least, they’re a good contrarian pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but the Browns look like the right side for a variety of reasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 17
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
BAL 24 (-3) PIT 16
High Confidence Picks
PHI 26 (-3) WAS 17
KC 27 (+2.5) BUF 24 Upset Pick +115
Medium Confidence Picks
ATL 20 (+2) DEN 17 Upset Pick +115
NO 20 (PK) CLE 16
Low Confidence Picks
SF 30 (-6.5) SEA 21
GB 24 (-5.5) CHI 17
LAR 23 NE 20 (+4.5)
CIN 24 (+1.5) LAC 23 Upset Pick +110
No Confidence Picks
MIN 15 TEN 10 (+6)
HOU 20 DAL 13 (+7.5)
MIA 24 (-7) LV 16
NYJ 20 IND 16 (+4)
DET 31 (-13.5) JAX 17
Washington Commanders (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
Both of these teams have great records and whoever wins this game will be in first place in the NFC East, but the Eagles have been the better of these two teams. While the Commanders have a solid +1.80% first down rate differential and a solid +0.54 yards per play differential, the Eagles have the significant edge in both metrics at +3.61% and +0.95 respectively, and those metrics tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record.
The Eagles are also playing even better over the past few weeks, on both sides of the ball. While their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on under the leadership of legendary coordinator Vic Fangio, who has significantly improved this unit in his first year on the job, their offense has also gotten better as it has gotten healthier. Wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert, right tackle Lane Johnson, and left tackle Jordan Mailata are all key players who have missed time with injury this season and all are expected to play in this game together for the first time in a full game since week 1, with Mailata specifically making his return this week after a 4-week absence, a huge re-addition considering he is one of the best players in the league at his position.
With their offense at full strength and their defense getting better every week, the Eagles have a six point edge in my roster rankings and should be favored at home by at least a touchdown. This line is either 3 or 3.5 depending on the sportsbook so, either way, we’re getting significant line value with the Eagles, who are also in a good spot on a short week. Divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-17 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. It’s hard for interior teams to play on the road on a short week against a superior opponent, even if the two teams are divisional rivals. The Eagles aren’t favored by that many, but they arguably should be, so the logic should apply here.
The Eagles are also coming off of a blowout win last week and were able to take it easy in the second half, while the Commanders lost a close one to the Steelers, so the Eagles should be better rested going into this game. Teams are 12-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football after a game in which they led by double digits going into the fourth quarter when their opponents lost their previous game by three points or fewer, as long as both teams are on short rest. I locked this one in at 3 because I liked the Eagles a lot at that number, but they’re still bettable at 3.5 if you can’t get 3.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3
Confidence: High
Pick of the Week
BAL 34 (-6) CIN 21
High Confidence Picks
None
Medium Confidence Picks
NYG 20 (-6.5) CAR 10
ATL 24 (-3.5) NO 17
CHI 20 NE 16 (+6.5)
SF 30 (-6.5) TB 20
DET 24 HOU 23 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
ARZ 24 (+1.5) NYJ 23 Upset Pick +110
BUF 23 IND 20 (+4)
KC 23 (-7.5) DEN 13
MIN 22 JAX 17 (+7)
PHI 26 (-7) DAL 17
MIA 27 (+2.5) LAR 26 Upset Pick +115
No Confidence Picks
WAS 23 PIT 20 (+3)
LAC 24 (-7.5) TEN 16
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