Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)

The Bears are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, particularly on the offensive line, where tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright and guard Teven Jenkins have missed time recently, and on defense, where edge defenders Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor and cornerback Kyler Gordon have missed time recently. They’re a significantly better team as a result of their improved health and almost pulled the upset over the Vikings last week, losing in overtime.

Unfortunately, that overtime loss puts them in a near impossible spot on a short week, as teams have a horrific track record of covering the spread on a short week after an overtime game, going just 3-24 ATS all-time. The Bears would have been in a tough spot anyway, even if they didn’t play overtime last week, as big divisional home favorites tend to cover on a short week, going 21-13 ATS as favorites of 7+ on Thursday as long as both teams are on short rest. 

This line is -10 and, as big as that line is, it arguably should be bigger, as the Lions are probably the best team in the league and have a massive edge in first down rate differential (+5.80% vs. -2.03%) and yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.14), as well as a 9-point edge in my roster rankings, even with the Bears’ improved health and the Lions missing left tackle Taylor Decker and cornerback Carlton Davis this week. Between the good spot and the line value, the Lions are a great play this week. I don’t normally like to make my Pick of the Week on Thursday, but I don’t see another game that I like this much, so the Lions are my Pick of the Week this week.

Detroit Lions 30 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -10

Confidence: Pick of the Week