Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

This game is a tough call from an against the spread perspective, with the Chiefs favored by 13.5 points. On one hand, the Chiefs are 10-1, but haven’t blown out many teams, with just two wins by more than 7 points, one win by more than 10 points, and no wins that would cover this spread. Because of that, a good rule of thumb is to bet them when they’re underdogs or small-to-medium favorites and go against them as big favorites. They are 5-2 ATS this season as long as they aren’t favored by more than six points, but just 0-4 ATS when favorites of more than six. The Chiefs also could be in a look ahead spot here with a much tougher game against the Chargers on deck, as favorites of 7+ cover the spread at just a 44.3% rate as when their next opponent has a better winning percentage than their current opponent by a margin of more than 40%.

On the other hand, the Raiders in their current state are arguably the worst team in the league and this game against them in Kansas City is arguably the Chiefs’ easiest game of the season. The Chiefs have also largely underachieved this season and have the talent to make this game a blowout if they bring their best effort, which they could even in a bad spot, given Patrick Mahomes’ comments about being frustrated with his team’s lack of blowouts, and given that this is a nationally televised game. Even with the Chargers on deck, the Chiefs may want to make a statement in front of the whole country by blowing out a terrible Raiders team. I am still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because I think the argument for them covering is stronger than the argument for the Chiefs covering, but I don’t have any confidence in this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Las Vegas Raiders 12

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +13.5

Confidence: None