Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Packers are in a good spot here as a non-divisional home favorite on a Thursday. It’s very tough for teams to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar non-divisional opponent, unless they are significantly better than that opponent, and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites are 50-33 ATS on Thursdays as long as both teams are on short rest. This is also the type of situation that Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, and the Dolphins have struggled in recently. Tagovailoa is 0-7 in his career when the temperature is less than 40, 3-10 under Mike McDaniel (5-8 ATS) against teams with winning percentages over 50%, and 3-8 in primetime games under Mike McDaniel (3-8 ATS). The Packers, meanwhile, are 23-8 (19-12 ATS) in week 12 or later since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2020, including 14-4 (12-6 ATS) at home.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers. The Packers have the edge in first down rate differential (+1.00% vs. +0.02%) and yards per play differential (+0.84 vs. -0.09), but the Packers aren’t as good as you would expect in those metrics, given their 8-3 record, and the Dolphins have been playing a lot better since getting Tagovailoa back from injury. In fact, my roster rankings give the Dolphins a 2-point edge, factoring in the Packers missing cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, so it’s hard to justify betting on the Packers as 3-point favorites, even in a great spot. I would still take the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, but I don’t think they’re bettable.

Green Bay Packers 24 Miami Dolphins 19

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low