New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

The Cowboys pulled the huge upset in Washington last weekend, but I’m not sure they can bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. Teams tend to fall back to earth after big upsets like that, covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate the week after an upset as underdogs or 10 points or more. The Giants, meanwhile, were embarrassed by the Buccaneers last week and will probably bring a better effort than a Cowboys team that arguably won their Super Bowl last week. 

The Cowboys have also been a much worse home team than road team this season, going 4-2 on the road, including wins over likely playoff qualifiers in the Commanders and Steelers, but losing every home game by an average of 23.6 points. On top of that, the Giants might be the better of these two teams, possessing the significant edge in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -3.46%) and only slightly trailing in yards per play differential (-1.05 vs. -0.96). Meanwhile, my roster rankings give the Giants a 1-point edge, given all of the Cowboys injuries, most notably the absence of starting quarterback Dak Prescott and talented guard Zach Martin. Between the bad spot the Cowboys are in, their struggles at home, and the fact that the Giants might be the better team, it’s hard to justify the Cowboys being favored by four points in this game, so I like the Giants enough for a small bet this week.

Dallas Cowboys 17 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: Medium