Pick of the Week
ATL 24 (+4.5) WAS 23 Upset Pick +175
High Confidence Picks
Medium Confidence Picks
Low Confidence Picks
GB 26 (+1.5) MIN 24 Upset Pick +100
No Confidence Picks
BUF 30 (-9.5) NYJ 20
LV 17 NO 16 (+1.5)
IND 20 NYG 13 (+7.5)
JAX 17 (-1) TEN 15
Miami Dolphins (7-8) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Earlier in the week, the Dolphins were favored by 6.5 in this game in Cleveland against the Dolphins, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle have since been ruled out and this line has dropped to 3.5. I originally had a low confidence pick on the Browns at +6.5 with a calculated line of Miami -4.5 and I think this line is still too high. In four games without Tua Tagovailoa earlier this season, the Dolphins averaged just 10 points per game and that was with Waddle on the field.
The Browns have their own offensive issues with third string Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center and key players like Nick Chubb, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku out, but they still have a great defense. With all the injuries factored in, the Dolphins have just a 3.5-point edge in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line of Miami -1.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Browns at home at +3.5 and this should be a low scoring game, so getting more than a field goal with the Dolphins is very intriguing. I would still pick the Browns at +3, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Miami Dolphins 12 Cleveland Browns 10
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5
Confidence: Medium
Detroit Lions (13-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
These two teams met in the NFC Championship game last season, with the 49ers narrowly pulling out the victory at home, but things have gone very differently for these two teams since then, as the Lions have arguably been even better than last season, currently sitting as the #1 overall seed in the NFC, while the 49ers have fallen out of the playoffs completely, officially getting eliminated with last week’s loss in Miami, which dropped them to 6-9. However, these two teams aren’t that far apart statistically, as the 49ers rank 5th at +2.69% in first down rate differential and 3rd at +1.06 in yards per play differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, while the Lions rank 2nd at +5.11% in first down rate differential and 6th at +0.54 in yards per play differential.
The 49ers have a lot of injuries, missing seven week 1 starters, including key players like wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, right tackle Colton McKivitz, and interior defender Javon Hargrave. They’re particularly banged up on the offensive line, where they aren’t just missing Williams, McKivitz, and left guard Aaron Banks, but also their backups at left tackle and left guard, and they are down to their fourth string running back as well. However, the Lions have a ton of injuries as well, also missing seven week 1 starters, and they only have a 3.5-point edge in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good value with the 49ers as 3.5-point home underdogs, with my calculated line at Detroit -1.5, crossing the key number of three (1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly).
In a lot of ways, this 49ers’ team reminds me of their 2020 team. A year after losing the Super Bowl, the 2020 San Francisco 49ers led the league in adjusted games lost to injury and finished 6-10, despite finishing the season 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. After that team seemed to bottom out late in the season, they won by eight points as 5-point underdogs in Arizona in week 16, against a team that was 8-6 coming into that game, and then in week 17 they lost by three as 7-point underdogs against the Seahawks, who came into that game at 11-4. I think this team will fare similarly well in this rematch with the Lions this week, which they should be focused for, even after being eliminated. They have at least a decent chance to pull the upset, but, even if they don’t, they have a great chance of keeping it close and covering, as 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer.
Detroit Lions 24 San Francisco 49ers 23
Pick against the spread: San Francisco +3.5
Confidence: Medium
Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
These two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers have a big edge in yards per play differential (+1.08 vs. +0.36), while the Vikings have a big edge in first down rate differential (+3.54% vs. +1.98%). In my roster rankings, these two teams are about even at quarterback, on the offensive line, and in the secondary, with the Vikings having the edge on the defensive line and in the receiving corps and the Packers having the edge at running back and in the linebacking corps. My calculated line is Minnesota -2, which is essentially the same as the actual line at Minnesota -1.5.
However, the Packers are in a significantly better spot than the Vikings this week, for a couple reasons. For one, the Packers are coming off of a blowout victory on Monday Night Football (34-0) and that tends to carry into the next week, as teams cover at a 59.0% rate the week after a victory by 21 points or more on Monday Night Football. The Packers did lose at home to the Vikings earlier this season, losing by two as 3-point favorites, but that actually works in their favor this week, as evenly matched divisional opponents tend to split the season series, with road underdogs covering at a 57.0% rate in same season, regular season rematches against a team that they previously lost to as home favorites. There isn’t enough here for the Packers to be bettable against the spread, but the money line is worth a small bet.
Green Bay Packers 26 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick +100
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +1.5
Confidence: Low
Carolina Panthers (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
The Panthers pulled off an upset win over the Cardinals last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of four points or more. Even with that upset win, the Panthers still rank dead last in first down rate differential at -6.02% and 29th in yards per play differential at -0.74, while their opponents this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rank 3rd in first down rate differential at 3.83% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.56, which are by far the two most predictive team statistics.
The Panthers have gotten better as the season has gone on due to improved play by quarterback Bryce Young and an improved injury situation, but that injury situation is starting to deteriorate quickly, as the Panthers will be missing at least seven, potentially nine week 1 starters due to injury in this game, depending on the status of top interior defender A’Shawn Robinson and top edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who are legitimately questionable for this game. Even just since last week, the Panthers have lost talented right tackle Taylor Moton, feature back Chuba Hubbard, top cornerback Jaycee Horn, and top linebacker Josey Jewell, as well as potentially Clowney and Robinson, all of whom played last week.
The Buccaneers have their own injury concerns, missing at least three, potentially five week 1 starters, depending on the status of linebacker KJ Britt and safety Jordan Whitehead, but most of their injured starters have been out for several weeks and, even with the Buccaneers’ injuries factored in, the Buccaneers still have a significant edge in my roster rankings in every position group except the receiving corps, which is about equal. My calculated line for this game is Tampa Bay -13, so we’re getting significant line value with the Buccaneers at -8. When you add in that the Panthers are in a bad spot this week, the Buccaneers are a great bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 Carolina Panthers 20
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8
Confidence: High
Dallas Cowboys (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
The Cowboys pulled off an upset win over the Buccaneers last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of four points or more. The Cowboys also lost the first down rate battle by 9.40% and the yards per play battle by 0.21 in that game, which is much more predictive of future winning than final scores are. On the season, the Cowboys have a first down rate differential of -3.22% (28th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of -0.72% (27th in the NFL). Meanwhile, their opponents’ this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, rank 6th in first down rate differential at +2.31% and 4th in yards per play differential at +0.87.
The Eagles are missing their starting quarterback Jalen Hurts due to a concussion in this game, his first absence of the season, but they are arguably still the healthier team, as the Cowboys are missing at least seven week one starters due to injury, potentially up to nine, depending on the status of questionable linebacker Eric Kendricks and questionable safety Donovan Wilson, who barely practiced this week. The most notable new injury for the Cowboys is stud wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Eagles, meanwhile, will only be missing a maximum of four week one starters, including Hurts, potentially only three, depending on questionable edge defender Bryce Huff. In terms of SIC Score, the Eagles are at 88.8, while the Cowboys are at 82.4.
With all these injuries taken into account, my roster rankings still have the Eagles 11 points better than the Cowboys, with the Eagles having the edge in every single position group on both sides of the ball. This line, which was -11 on the early line last week, has dropped down to 7, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles at home in this one. Between that and the bad spot the Cowboys are in, the Eagles look like a great bet this week at -7. I would also bet them at -7.5, but for a smaller amount.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 10
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7
Confidence: High
Atlanta Falcons (8-7) at Washington Commanders (10-5)
The Commanders are favored by 4.5 in this game, but that line is too high, particularly when you consider that about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The Commanders have a slight statistical edge, with a first down rate differential of +2.16% and a yards per play differential of +0.36, as opposed to +0.14% and +0.27 for the Falcons, but they have also faced a much easier schedule, with an opponent’s winning percentage of .434, as opposed to .516 for the Falcons, which more or less neutralizes the Commanders’ statistical edge. In fact, the Commanders have just one win against a team with a winning record all season and that was last week’s win over the Eagles, who lost their starting quarterback in the first quarter, so I’m not sure that really counts.
Even if you do count that game, the Commanders still only won by three points, which wouldn’t cover this spread, so it seems unlikely the Commanders are suddenly going to be able to beat a competent team by five points or more. The Commanders also lost in Philadelphia earlier this season, when the Eagles had a healthy quarterback, while the Falcons beat the Eagles in Philadelphia and also have a pair of wins over the Buccaneers, who blew out the Commanders earlier this season, giving the Falcons three wins against winning teams, as opposed to one for the Commanders. Against common opponents (Steelers, Giants, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles), the Falcons are 7-2, while the Commanders are 5-4.
The Falcons are also the healthier team, with a SIC score of 91.9, as opposed to 86.6 for the Commanders. While the Falcons don’t have a single week one starter injured, the Commanders have at least one (right tackle Andrew Wylie), if not two depending on the status of interior defender Jonathan Allen, and they are also missing key contributors on offense in Noah Brown (468 snaps), Dyami Brown (445 snaps), and Austin Ekeler (373 snaps), as well as mid-season acquisition Marshon Lattimore (116 snaps in the past two weeks), while the Falcons’ most notable absences are rotational defenders in James Smith-Williams (306 snaps), Troy Andersen (287 snaps), and Ta’Quon Graham (193 snaps).
The Falcons also likely found an upgrade at the quarterback position when they switched from veteran Kirk Cousins to rookie Michael Penix last week. The Commanders still have the advantage at the quarterback position with Jayden Daniels, but the Falcons have the edge at running back, in the receiving corps, on the offensive line, on the defensive line, and in the secondary, while the only other position group in which the Commanders have an advantage is their linebacking corps. With the Falcons’ better injury situation and improved quarterback play taken into account, the Falcons have a 4.5-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings. Any way you look at it, it’s hard to justify this line being this high. The Falcons are my Pick of the Week this week and have a great shot to pull the straight up upset as well.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Washington Commanders 23
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
The Cardinals are a decent team statistically on the season, with a slightly above average point differential (+2), yards per play differential (+0.30), and first down rate differential (+0.39%), which are all more predictive than win/loss record, where the Cardinals sit at just 7-8. However, a big part of the reason for that is the Cardinals have had relatively few key injuries this season and that is starting to change. The Cardinals were dealt a big blow last week when stud left tackle Paris Johnson was ruled out for a must win game against the Panthers, a game the Cardinals subsequently lost in overtime, eliminating the Cardinals from playoff contention.
Now, with the Cardinals’ season effectively over, Johnson has been shut down for the rest of the season, as has right tackle Jonah Williams. Williams was one of the few Cardinals to miss significant time with injury early in the season, missing 10 games in total, but the Cardinals got solid play out of veteran backup Kelvin Beachum in his absence. Now with both Johnson and Williams out, Beachum will start at left tackle and practice squad call up Jackson Barton will start at right tackle, which should lead to significantly diminished play at both tackle spots. The Cardinals could also be without stud lead back James Conner due to a knee injury he suffered last week. Conner saw limited practices every day this week, which normally would almost definitely mean he would play, but with the Cardinals out of playoff contention, they may opt to play it safe with him, which would be a big blow to this offense.
This line has moved to heavily compensate for the Cardinals’ injuries and elimination from the post-season though, probably more than it should have. The Cardinals have gone from 3-point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams on the early line last week to 5-point road underdogs earlier this week to now 7-point road underdogs, in large part due to the injury updates. Not only are the odds makers compensating for the Cardinals’ injuries, but they seem to be thinking the Cardinals won’t bring their best effort this week after being eliminated from the post-season, which seems unlikely, given that this is still a divisional rivalry game and given that the Cardinals are a well coached team under Jonathan Gannon who continued to play hard down the stretch last season despite a terrible roster that was going nowhere, going 3-5 after a 1-8 start.
On top of that, the Rams have an injury concern of their own, with right tackle Rob Havenstein suffering a shoulder injury in practice on Wednesday and subsequently missing Thursday’s practice and being listed as questionable on the final injury report. Despite the Rams’ 9-6 record, they actually rank behind the Cardinals in yards per play differential (-0.26) and point differential (-18), only having an edge in first down rate differential (+1.31%). They have played a lot better in recent weeks, winning eight of their last ten games after a 1-4 start, largely coinciding with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to the lineup in week 8 after early season injuries. That hot stretch has also included four straight wins, fully coinciding with the Rams’ offensive line being fully healthy for the first time all season in week 13, but Havenstein’s potential absence would hurt them at least somewhat.
With Conner and Havenstein factored in as truly questionable and factoring in that the Rams have below average homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds favoring the road team (+1.9 point per game average point differential at home, +1.1 point per game average point differential on the road since their first season in Los Angeles in 2016), my calculated line has the Rams as 5-point favorites, which gives us pretty decent line value with the Cardinals at +7. I am not placing a bet on the Cardinals right now because of the uncertainty around the status of Havenstein and Conner, but depending on whether or not those two play and depending on where this line ends up, I could end up placing a bet on the Cardinals and, either way, the Cardinals seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes.
Los Angeles Rams 31 Arizona Cardinals 26
Pick against the spread: Arizona +7
Confidence: Low
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England Patriots (3-12)
This game is a tough call. The Chargers are only favored by four points on the road, where they tend to overperform expectations as a result of not having any homefield advantage in Los Angeles (27-34 ATS at home, 37-26 ATS on the road since their first season in Los Angeles in 2017). My roster rankings give the Chargers a huge advantage over the Patriots, about 11.5 points and PFF has the Chargers ranked 6th in overall team grade, as opposed to 30th for the Patriots.
However, the Chargers have a much smaller advantage in terms of yards per play differential (-0.07 vs. -0.69) and first down rate differential (-0.08% vs. -3.20%), which are the most predictive statistics. My calculated line, combining my roster rankings and those statistical rankings, while factoring in the Chargers’ tendency to over-perform on the road, favors the Chargers by 6.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Chargers, but it’s not quite enough for them to be worth betting, especially given the conflicting analysis between my roster rankings and statistical measures.
Update: Jabrill Peppers is out for the Patriots, while JK Dobbins and Elijah Molden are in for the Chargers, which was best case scenario for the Chargers from the inactives. This line has moved up to 5.5, but that’s not a big deal because games are rarely decided by 4-5 points. If you can get still -5.5, the Chargers are worth betting.
Los Angeles Chargers 26 New England Patriots 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5.5
Confidence: Medium
Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
This is a matchup of two teams that tend to get better as the year goes on after a slow start. Broncos coach Sean Payton consistently did that in his previous job with the New Orleans Saints and has continued that in his first two seasons with the Broncos. In total as a head coach, Payton is 11-22-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season and 146-105–5 ATS after that. This season, the Broncos lost their first two games of the season, but have gone 9-4 (10-3 ATS) since then. Last season, it took them a little longer in Sean Payton’s first season in Denver, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS and 1-9 straight up in the first two weeks of the season in the Zac Taylor/Joe Burrow era and 49-27-2 ATS and 46-31 straight up after those first two weeks. This season, they lost their first three games of the season, but are 7-5 straight up and 8-4 ATS since then. Those two trends should cancel out and, with that in mind, the Bengals should be the better pick, as 3-point home favorites.
The Broncos have a two game lead on them in the standings, but the Bengals have a first down rate differential of +1.05% and a yards per play differential of +0.27, as opposed to -0.11% and +0.19 for the Broncos. The Bengals also have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings, in part due to their offense now being fully healthy, with left tackle Orlando Brown notably set to return this week after missing six of the Bengals’ last seven games. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 in this game, so we’re getting decent line value with them, but not quite enough for them to be worth betting.
Cincinnati Bengals 27 Denver Broncos 22
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3
Confidence: Low
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