Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Steelers are typically a good bet as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, going 57-38 ATS since Tomlin’s first season in 2007. However, they do have a strong trend working against them in this spot, as teams are 44-61 ATS as underdogs in a same-season regular season divisional rematch against a team they already beat as underdogs earlier in the season, as it’s very tough to pull an upset against the same team twice in the same season. It’s a small sample size obviously, but the Steelers lost and failed to cover the only time they were in that situation under Mike Tomlin, even as good as they are as underdogs in general.

With that in mind, I think the Ravens are bettable as 6.5-point favorites this week. The Steelers have the better record, but the Ravens have significant advantages in first down rate differential (5.31% vs. -1.79%) and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. -0.14), which are much more predictive than win-loss records. In the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers earlier this season, the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 4.89% and the yards per play differential by 2.00, only losing by two because they lost the turnover battle by two and missed two field goals, which are both much less predictive than yards per play and first down rate. The Ravens also have a 7-point edge in my roster rankings.

It might seem weird to bet a big favorite against a team with a better record, but teams are 140-108 ATS all-time in week 11 or later as favorites of 3.5 or more against a team with a better record than them, as teams tend to be big favorites in that situation for a good reason. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but I wouldn’t worry about the Steelers having the better record when evaluating this game. This isn’t a big bet, but the Ravens are worth betting this week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium