Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)

The Ravens are only one game better than the Texans in the standings, but they have a huge edge in point differential (+103 vs. +20), first down rate differential (+5.45% vs. +0.50%), and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. +0.16), which are all significantly more predictive than win/loss records. That’s despite the fact that the Ravens have faced a significantly tougher schedule than the Texans, with an opponent’s win percentage of .529, as opposed to .484 for the Texans. 

The Ravens are also much healthier than the Texans. The Ravens have been one of the least injured teams in the league this season, but they’re even healthier now than they have been, as they don’t have a single week one starter absent for this game. The Texans, on the other hand, are missing seven, including wide receiver Tank Dell, safety Jimmie Ward, and right guard Shaq Mason, a trio of key players who went down last week in the Texans’ loss to the Chiefs. In their current injury situations, the Ravens have a 11-point edge over the Texans, giving us a calculated line of Baltimore -9. This isn’t a big bet, but there’s enough line value with the Ravens at -5.5 for this to be worth betting.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Medium